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Canfor Pulp Products (TSE:CFX)
TSX:CFX
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Canfor Pulp Products (CFX) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CFX

Canfor Pulp Products

(TSX:CFX)

Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.50
▼(-9.09% Downside)
The overall stock score is primarily influenced by significant financial challenges and weak technical indicators. While the earnings call provided some positive strategic insights, the ongoing operational difficulties and negative valuation metrics weigh heavily on the stock's attractiveness.

Canfor Pulp Products (CFX) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Canfor Pulp Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCanfor Pulp Products Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and supply of pulp and paper products in Canada, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Pulp and Paper. The company offers bleached and unbleached softwood kraft pulps; and bleached, unbleached, and coloured kraft papers. It also produces green energy. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. Canfor Pulp Products Inc. is a subsidiary of Canadian Forest Products Ltd.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanfor Pulp Products generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp, which is utilized in the production of a variety of paper products, including tissues, printing and writing paper, and specialty products. The company also earns income from the sale of paper products and green energy, which is produced as a by-product of the pulp-making process. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major paper manufacturers and spot market sales. The company's earnings are influenced by global pulp prices, operational efficiencies, and strategic partnerships, particularly in the Asian market, which is a significant consumer of its products.

Canfor Pulp Products Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -16.67%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mix of strategic growth initiatives and significant operational challenges. While Canfor is making progress in geographic diversification and maintaining a strong balance sheet, it faces ongoing challenges from facility closures, weak market conditions, and trade uncertainties. The sentiment is balanced with both positive and negative aspects present.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Pending Acquisition in Sweden
Canfor announced the pending acquisition of three sawmills from Karl Hedin in Sweden, enhancing its ability to access global markets and diversify its lumber platform.
Strong Balance Sheet
Canfor reported a solid balance sheet with available liquidity of $1.3 billion, supporting strategic growth initiatives.
Lumber Business EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA for the lumber business increased to $68 million in Q2, up approximately $8 million from Q1, supported by strong earnings in Europe and the U.S. South.
Geographic Diversification
Following the acquisition, Canfor's lumber production will be diversified with 35% in the U.S. South, 35% in Sweden, and 30% in Western Canada.
Negative Updates
Facility Closures in North America
Canfor announced the closure of facilities in British Columbia and South Carolina, removing over 2 billion board feet of production due to high costs and weak market conditions.
Decline in Pulp Pricing
Canfor Pulp experienced a sharp decline in pricing, particularly in China where prices fell 7% in the quarter, contributing to lower sales realizations and reduced EBITDA.
Impact of Tariffs and Duties
Increased duty rates and ongoing trade uncertainties in the U.S. pose challenges to Canfor's operations, requiring adjustments to sales strategies.
Elevated Global Pulp Inventories
Weak demand and elevated global pulp inventories contributed to a decline in pricing and persistent market challenges.
Company Guidance
During the Canfor and Canfor Pulp's Second Quarter 2025 Analyst Call, the guidance provided highlighted several key metrics and strategic actions. Canfor Corporation announced the closure of facilities in South Carolina, reducing production capacity by over 2 billion board feet to align with market demand. Despite challenging market conditions, the company is leveraging its geographically diversified lumber platform to enhance competitiveness and generate stable cash flow. Canfor is set to acquire three sawmills in Sweden, expanding its operational reach and reducing reliance on the U.S. market, bringing its lumber production distribution to approximately 35% in the U.S. South, 35% in Sweden, and 30% in Western Canada. Financially, Canfor's lumber business generated an adjusted EBITDA of $62 million in Q2, with expectations of improved profitability due to geographic diversification and low operating costs. Canfor Pulp's adjusted EBITDA was $6 million, impacted by lower sales realizations and increased costs. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a consolidated net debt of approximately $87 million and plans capital expenditures of $240 million in the lumber business and $45 million in Canfor Pulp for 2025.

Canfor Pulp Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Canfor Pulp Products is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and profitability as highlighted by negative margins. The balance sheet shows a stable debt profile but declining equity strength. Cash flow remains a relative bright spot, with positive operating cash flow and improving free cash flow, which could support the company during this downturn.
Income Statement
28
Negative
The income statement shows a concerning trajectory with declining revenues and worsening profitability. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is 23.57%, but net profit margins are negative, indicating losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational challenges. The revenue growth rate is negative, emphasizing this downward trend.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
While the balance sheet indicates some stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, which is manageable, the equity ratio has declined to 41.56%, signaling decreased financial strength. Return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing profitability issues. Despite these weaknesses, the company maintains a moderate level of debt compared to its equity.
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
The cash flow statement presents a mixed picture. Operating cash flow remains positive, providing a buffer despite the company's net losses. The free cash flow growth rate is substantial at 142.11%, indicating improved cash management. Additionally, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting efficient cash conversion despite profitability challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue730.40M798.60M875.50M1.09B1.14B990.50M
Gross Profit160.80M165.00M101.00M218.80M282.80M186.00M
EBITDA-154.10M-148.40M-34.90M-4.90M29.60M55.20M
Net Income-153.90M-161.90M-96.10M-79.10M-44.40M-22.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets435.30M452.90M675.80M756.00M841.70M920.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.30M15.30M21.10M14.70M73.30M6.80M
Total Debt76.60M99.90M109.20M67.80M52.90M52.50M
Total Liabilities258.50M276.90M338.70M328.60M346.70M388.30M
Stockholders Equity176.80M176.00M337.10M427.40M495.00M532.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow14.80M7.60M-24.20M-67.30M70.20M22.70M
Operating Cash Flow53.30M58.40M36.30M45.30M148.90M96.00M
Investing Cash Flow-36.70M-41.90M-59.80M-112.20M-78.10M-72.80M
Financing Cash Flow-39.30M-22.30M29.90M8.30M-4.30M-22.40M

Canfor Pulp Products Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.55
Price Trends
50DMA
0.68
Negative
100DMA
0.70
Negative
200DMA
0.75
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Positive
RSI
32.07
Neutral
STOCH
>-0.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.64, below the 50-day MA of 0.68, and below the 200-day MA of 0.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of >-0.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CFX.

Canfor Pulp Products Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.07B6.270.59%3.01%2.91%-45.05%
60
Neutral
C$325.86M22.574.24%8.21%-26.79%-57.05%
52
Neutral
C$131.66M-3.84%3.89%49.05%
47
Neutral
C$37.18M-60.90%-11.47%-167.18%
$5.82B6,251.67-1.80%1.78%
$471.64M-11.53%
$1.08B-19.38%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CFX
Canfor Pulp Products
0.55
-0.36
-39.56%
WFG
West Fraser Timber Co
71.95
-12.51
-14.81%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
18.03
1.38
8.29%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
12.35
-1.00
-7.49%
IFSPF
Interfor
9.04
-2.99
-24.85%
CFPZF
Canfor
9.13
-1.40
-13.30%

Canfor Pulp Products Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Canfor Pulp Faces Challenges Amid Global Market Uncertainty
Negative
Jul 31, 2025

Canfor Pulp Products Inc. reported a challenging second quarter in 2025, with an operating loss of $5 million and a net loss of $7 million. The company faced weakened global pulp market fundamentals, particularly due to trade uncertainties in China, and a stronger Canadian dollar negatively impacted sales. Despite these challenges, Canfor Pulp is focusing on optimizing internal operations to mitigate external pressures. The global softwood pulp market saw significant inventory increases, and the company anticipates continued market pressure into the third quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CFX) stock is a Hold with a C$1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canfor Pulp Products stock, see the TSE:CFX Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Canfor Pulp Announces AGM Voting Results, Reaffirms Leadership
Positive
May 13, 2025

Canfor Pulp Products Inc. announced the voting results from its Annual General Meeting, where shareholders voted in favor of all business items, including the election of director nominees. The meeting saw 79.34% of outstanding shares voted, reflecting strong shareholder engagement and support for the company’s leadership. This outcome reinforces the company’s stable governance and could positively impact its strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CFX) stock is a Hold with a C$1.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canfor Pulp Products stock, see the TSE:CFX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Canfor Pulp Products Reports Positive Q1 2025 Amid Market Uncertainties
Positive
May 8, 2025

Canfor Pulp Products Inc. reported a positive first quarter in 2025 with an operating income of $11 million and a net income of $6 million. The company experienced a 6% increase in pulp production due to improved operational reliability. Despite some positive momentum in market conditions early in the quarter, global economic and trade uncertainties affected the pulp market later on. The company remains focused on enhancing operational reliability and managing costs amidst anticipated subdued global softwood pulp markets.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025