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Canfor Pulp Products (TSE:CFX)
TSX:CFX
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Canfor Pulp Products (CFX) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CFX

Canfor Pulp Products

(TSX:CFX)

Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.50
▼(-26.47%Downside)
The overall stock score of 48 reflects significant financial difficulties, with declining revenues and profitability. While technical analysis and valuation present challenges, recent corporate events show some positive operational trends and strong shareholder support, offering a glimmer of stability. However, these positives are overshadowed by fundamental financial weaknesses.

Canfor Pulp Products (CFX) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Canfor Pulp Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCanfor Pulp Products Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and supply of pulp and paper products in Canada, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Pulp and Paper. The company offers bleached and unbleached softwood kraft pulps; and bleached, unbleached, and coloured kraft papers. It also produces green energy. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. Canfor Pulp Products Inc. is a subsidiary of Canadian Forest Products Ltd.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanfor Pulp Products generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp, which is utilized in the production of a variety of paper products, including tissues, printing and writing paper, and specialty products. The company also earns income from the sale of paper products and green energy, which is produced as a by-product of the pulp-making process. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts with major paper manufacturers and spot market sales. The company's earnings are influenced by global pulp prices, operational efficiencies, and strategic partnerships, particularly in the Asian market, which is a significant consumer of its products.

Canfor Pulp Products Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -5.56%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a company that has made significant strategic adjustments to improve its cost structure and diversify its operations, resulting in stronger financial performance. However, ongoing challenges with trade disputes, tariffs, and fibre supply constraints continue to pose significant risks to the business.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Strategic Priorities Execution
In 2024, Canfor successfully executed several strategic priorities, including the closure of high-cost assets in British Columbia and the US South, and the completion of a second greenfield sawmill in Alabama and a major brownfield investment in Arkansas. This has resulted in an improved operating cost base and enhanced geographic diversification.
Improved Financial Performance
Canfor's lumber business generated an adjusted EBITDA of $22 million in Q4, an increase of $64 million from the previous quarter, due to increased lumber prices and modest cost structure improvements.
Strong Pulp Business Performance
Canfor Pulp generated solid financial results in Q4, supported by stable global pulp markets and strong performance in the paper business, despite ongoing fibre supply uncertainty.
Anticipated Cost Structure Improvements
Looking ahead to 2025, Canfor anticipates further improvements to its cost structure following the closure of high-cost assets and the ramp-up of low-cost capacity in the US South.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Trade Disputes
The company faces significant challenges due to elevated duties and the implementation of tariffs, which are impacting the company's operations and profitability.
Decline in Pulp EBITDA
Canfor Pulp's adjusted EBITDA decreased by $7 million from the prior quarter, largely reflecting a 22% reduction in shipments following the wind-down of one production line at Northwood.
Uncertainty in Fibre Supply
There remains uncertainty with respect to fibre supply in 2025 due to elevated softwood lumber duties and potential additional tariffs, impacting Canfor Pulp.
Company Guidance
In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, Canfor and Canfor Pulp provided several key metrics and strategic insights during their analyst call. The companies reported a marked improvement in their financial health, with Canfor's lumber business generating an adjusted EBITDA of $22 million, signifying a $64 million increase from the previous quarter. This was attributed to rising lumber prices in North America and steady earnings in Europe. Canfor Pulp saw adjusted EBITDA of $12 million, though down by $7 million from the previous quarter due to a 22% reduction in shipments. The company's strategic focus on optimizing their cost structure and enhancing geographic diversification was emphasized, with 70% of their lumber business now located outside Canada. Canfor anticipates a modest capital expenditure of $250 million for the lumber business in 2025 and a $50 million spend for Canfor Pulp, with plans to opportunistically repurchase shares. Despite facing ongoing challenges like elevated duties and potential tariffs, the company remains confident about its robust balance sheet and improved market positioning, with only 20% of sales exposed to duties or tariffs.

Canfor Pulp Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Canfor Pulp Products faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue and negative profitability margins. However, the balance sheet shows a stable debt profile, and cash flow indicators are relatively strong with positive operating cash flow and improving free cash flow.
Income Statement
28
Negative
The income statement shows a concerning trajectory with declining revenues and worsening profitability. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is 23.57%, but net profit margins are negative, indicating losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational challenges. The revenue growth rate is negative, emphasizing this downward trend.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
While the balance sheet indicates some stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, which is manageable, the equity ratio has declined to 41.56%, signaling decreased financial strength. Return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing profitability issues. Despite these weaknesses, the company maintains a moderate level of debt compared to its equity.
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
The cash flow statement presents a mixed picture. Operating cash flow remains positive, providing a buffer despite the company's net losses. The free cash flow growth rate is substantial at 142.11%, indicating improved cash management. Additionally, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting efficient cash conversion despite profitability challenges.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue798.60M875.50M1.09B1.14B990.50M
Gross Profit165.00M101.00M218.80M282.80M186.00M
EBITDA-148.40M-34.90M-4.90M29.60M55.20M
Net Income-161.90M-96.10M-79.10M-44.40M-22.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets452.90M675.80M756.00M841.70M920.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments15.30M21.10M14.70M73.30M6.80M
Total Debt99.90M109.20M67.80M52.90M52.50M
Total Liabilities276.90M338.70M328.60M346.70M388.30M
Stockholders Equity176.00M337.10M427.40M495.00M532.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.60M-24.20M-67.30M70.20M22.70M
Operating Cash Flow58.40M36.30M45.30M148.90M96.00M
Investing Cash Flow-41.90M-59.80M-112.20M-78.10M-72.80M
Financing Cash Flow-22.30M29.90M8.30M-4.30M-22.40M

Canfor Pulp Products Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.68
Price Trends
50DMA
0.71
Negative
100DMA
0.71
Negative
200DMA
0.78
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
46.51
Neutral
STOCH
50.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CFX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.69, below the 50-day MA of 0.71, and below the 200-day MA of 0.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CFX.

Canfor Pulp Products Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (71)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
C$326.64M16.465.85%8.15%12.30%-36.60%
71
Outperform
¥178.15B10.686.29%3.19%3.83%1.90%
56
Neutral
C$144.12M-1.51%9.47%85.30%
48
Neutral
C$44.36M-59.20%-9.60%-92.59%
$5.61B6,251.67-1.80%1.84%
$474.00M-16.90%
$1.17B-18.19%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CFX
Canfor Pulp Products
0.68
-0.27
-28.42%
WFG
West Fraser Timber Co
69.56
-17.76
-20.34%
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
18.15
1.18
6.95%
TSE:WEF
Western Forest Prod
13.30
0.85
6.83%
IFSPF
Interfor
9.04
-4.40
-32.74%
CFPZF
Canfor
9.74
-1.91
-16.39%

Canfor Pulp Products Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Canfor Pulp Announces AGM Voting Results, Reaffirms Leadership
Positive
May 13, 2025

Canfor Pulp Products Inc. announced the voting results from its Annual General Meeting, where shareholders voted in favor of all business items, including the election of director nominees. The meeting saw 79.34% of outstanding shares voted, reflecting strong shareholder engagement and support for the company’s leadership. This outcome reinforces the company’s stable governance and could positively impact its strategic direction and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CFX) stock is a Hold with a C$1.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canfor Pulp Products stock, see the TSE:CFX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Canfor Pulp Products Reports Positive Q1 2025 Amid Market Uncertainties
Positive
May 8, 2025

Canfor Pulp Products Inc. reported a positive first quarter in 2025 with an operating income of $11 million and a net income of $6 million. The company experienced a 6% increase in pulp production due to improved operational reliability. Despite some positive momentum in market conditions early in the quarter, global economic and trade uncertainties affected the pulp market later on. The company remains focused on enhancing operational reliability and managing costs amidst anticipated subdued global softwood pulp markets.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 31, 2025