Frontera Energy Corporation (TSE:FEC)
TSX:FEC
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Frontera Energy
(TSX:FEC)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
C$15.00
▲(137.72% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is mainly constrained by sharply weaker financial performance (deep TTM losses and higher leverage versus prior years), partially offset by resilient operating/free cash flow. Technicals are a notable positive with an uptrend versus key moving averages and supportive momentum indicators. Valuation remains pressured due to a negative P/E and only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation resilience
Frontera's sustained positive operating cash flow and material free cash flow provide durable internal funding for near-term capex, working capital and debt servicing. This cash generation cushions earnings volatility from oil prices and supports tactical reinvestment or liability management over the next several months.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue and profitability erosion
A pronounced drop in revenue and the shift to large net losses signal weakened operating momentum and damaged earnings power. Sustained earnings deterioration reduces retained earnings, limits reinvestment capacity, and can force strategic trade-offs (asset sales, reduced exploration) that impair medium-term production and growth prospects.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation resilience
Frontera's sustained positive operating cash flow and material free cash flow provide durable internal funding for near-term capex, working capital and debt servicing. This cash generation cushions earnings volatility from oil prices and supports tactical reinvestment or liability management over the next several months.
Read all positive factors
Frontera Energy (FEC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.01B
Dividend Yield4.07%
Average Volume (3M)44.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.02
Revenue Growth-33.71%
EPS Growth-9581.24%
CountryCA
Employees1,068
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-15.37
Shares Outstanding69,351,890
10 Day Avg. Volume68,054
30 Day Avg. Volume44,062
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.54
Price to Sales (P/S)0.32
P/FCF Ratio1.85
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.03B
Frontera Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Frontera Energy Corporation explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in South America. The company has a portfolio of assets, which consists of interests in 35 exploration and production blocks in Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, a...
How the Company Makes Money
Frontera primarily makes money by producing crude oil and selling those volumes into domestic and international markets at prices linked to global benchmarks (adjusted for quality differentials, location, and transportation). Revenue is therefore ...
Frontera Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Frontera Energy demonstrated strong operational and financial management by reducing costs, increasing production, and effectively returning capital to shareholders. However, significant impairment charges and challenges in Guyana contributed to a net loss, balancing the positive aspects.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Frontera delivered $76.1 million in operating EBITDA and ended the quarter with a strong cash balance of $197.5 million. The company also successfully completed an $80 million tender offer and consent solicitation of its senior notes, reducing upstream net debt by 20%.
Negative Updates
Impairment Charges
The company recognized non-cash impairment charges totaling $477 million related to the Corentyne license and Ecuador asset divestment, resulting in a net loss of $455.2 million for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance
Frontera delivered $76.1 million in operating EBITDA and ended the quarter with a strong cash balance of $197.5 million. The company also successfully completed an $80 million tender offer and consent solicitation of its senior notes, reducing upstream net debt by 20%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Frontera Energy provided guidance reflecting its strategic focus on operational efficiency and financial stability amid market volatility. The company achieved an operating EBITDA of $76.1 million and an adjusted infrastructure EBITDA of $27.1 million, ending the quarter with a strong cash balance of $197.5 million. It returned capital to investors through an $80 million tender offer and a substantial issuer bid of CAD 91 million, while also reducing its upstream net debt by 20%. Production increased to 41,055 barrels per day, with a 10.3% reduction in production costs to $9.1 per barrel and a 5.7% reduction in transportation costs to $11.62 per barrel. Despite a net loss of $455.2 million due to a $477 million impairment related to the Corentyne block, the company maintained its commitment to enhancing shareholder value through dividends and share buybacks, totaling over $144 million returned to shareholders in the past year. It adjusted its 2025 production guidance to 39,500-41,000 BOE per day and revised capital expenditure guidance downwards by $20 million, aiming for operating EBITDA of $320-$360 million at a $70 Brent price.Frontera Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 756.49M | 1.02B | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.37B | 926.63M |
| Gross Profit | 56.67M | 72.77M | 212.78M | 516.50M | 506.77M | 350.97M |
| EBITDA | -236.48M | 294.29M | 390.90M | 523.25M | 777.26M | 807.66M |
| Net Income | -1.12B | -1.08B | -24.16M | 193.50M | 286.62M | 628.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.86B | 1.83B | 2.90B | 3.02B | 2.74B | 2.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.58M | 230.16M | 192.58M | 159.67M | 289.85M | 257.50M |
| Total Debt | 169.31M | 493.01M | 506.04M | 536.82M | 511.55M | 560.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.29B | 1.24B | 1.17B | 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 582.47M | 599.85M | 1.72B | 1.82B | 1.58B | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 181.38M | 176.75M | 159.38M | -24.60M | 204.82M | 15.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 364.42M | 386.15M | 510.03M | 411.79M | 620.48M | 327.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -229.43M | -234.65M | -339.25M | -484.32M | -383.27M | -186.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -147.41M | -128.99M | -128.86M | -62.66M | -193.60M | -108.38M |
Frontera Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
6.31
Price Trends
14.00
Positive
11.35
Positive
8.54
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Positive
55.54
Neutral
80.25
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FEC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.55, below the 50-day MA of 14.00, and below the 200-day MA of 8.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.25 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FEC.
Frontera Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$524.59M | 6.13 | 5.39% | 21.85% | -29.99% | -70.33% | |
69 Neutral | C$543.27M | -15.54 | 8.84% | ― | 55.97% | 262.69% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | C$1.01B | -11.13 | -120.46% | 4.07% | -33.71% | -9581.24% | |
55 Neutral | C$1.15B | -11.89 | 0.46% | ― | -34.90% | ― | |
48 Neutral | C$486.20M | -3.65 | -10.86% | 12.70% | 119.35% | -533.65% | |
43 Neutral | C$444.97M | -49.53 | -6.74% | ― | 128.60% | -23.21% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:FEC
Frontera Energy
14.55
9.55
191.23%
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Frontera Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Frontera Sets April 30 Vote on US$525 Million Sale of Colombian Assets to Parex
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
Frontera Energy has filed and begun mailing its management information circular ahead of an April 30, 2026 special shareholder meeting to vote on a plan of arrangement under which Parex Resources, via a subsidiary, would acquire all of Frontera...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Frontera pivots to infrastructure after $750 million Colombian asset sale deal
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
Frontera Energy reported a fourth-quarter 2025 net loss from continuing operations of $663 million, driven largely by non-cash impairments tied to the planned divestment of its Colombian exploration and production portfolio and its Guyana interest...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Frontera to Sell Colombian E&P Assets to Parex and Pivot to Infrastructure-Focused Model
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
Frontera Energy has agreed to sell its Colombian upstream exploration and production portfolio to Parex Resources for a firm value of about $750 million, including up to $525 million in equity and the assumption of $390 million in debt obligations...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Frontera Energy Shifts to $525 Million Parex Deal for Colombian Assets
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
Frontera Energy plans to accept a $525 million offer from Parex Resources to acquire its upstream Colombian exploration and production business, after GeoPark declined to match what Frontera had deemed a superior proposal. The company expects to s...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Frontera Says Parex Bid Tops GeoPark Deal for Colombian Assets
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
Frontera Energy’s board has deemed a binding offer from Parex Resources to acquire its Colombian upstream exploration and production assets as a superior proposal to the previously announced sale to GeoPark. The Parex bid mirrors the GeoPark...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Frontera Rejects Parex Bid as Inferior, Backs GeoPark Deal
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
Frontera Energy’s board has reviewed an unsolicited takeover approach from Parex Resources for its Colombian upstream exploration and production assets, which are already subject to a sale agreement with GeoPark Limited. After receiving a bi...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Frontera Weighs Unsolicited Parex Bid Against Existing GeoPark Deal
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Frontera Energy said it has received and is reviewing an unsolicited proposal from Parex Resources to acquire all of its upstream Colombian exploration and production assets, which are already subject to a previously announced sale agreement with ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.