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PetroTal Corp
(TSX:TAL)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
C$0.50
▲(0.60% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is primarily supported by resilient financial positioning (low leverage, positive operating/free cash flow) and constructive earnings-call guidance with a defined drilling-led path to production growth. These positives are offset by clearly weakening recent profitability (margin compression, declining revenue), significant near-term operational/production headwinds and execution risk, and bearish technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and strong capitalization give the company durable financial flexibility to fund the planned drilling program, absorb commodity volatility, and avoid distressed financing. This reduces interest burden risk and supports multi‑period investment optionality without eroding liquidity.
Negative Factors
Steep recent production decline
A large year‑over‑year volume decline materially reduces revenue base and increases unit costs via fixed‑cost absorption. Restoring volumes is central to long‑term margins and cash flow; failure or delays in drilling/infrastructure would prolong weaker economics and pressure reinvestment capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and strong capitalization give the company durable financial flexibility to fund the planned drilling program, absorb commodity volatility, and avoid distressed financing. This reduces interest burden risk and supports multi‑period investment optionality without eroding liquidity.
Read all positive factors
PetroTal Corp (TAL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$455.56M
Dividend Yield16.93%
Average Volume (3M)762.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.2
Beta (1Y)0.24
Revenue Growth-27.27%
EPS Growth-79.93%
CountryCA
Employees234
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding920,328,000
10 Day Avg. Volume634,315
30 Day Avg. Volume762,714
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.90
P/FCF Ratio2.89
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$251.29M
PetroTal Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PetroTal Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, appraisal, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in Peru. Its flagship property is the 100% owned Bretaña Norte oil field located within Block 95 in the Maranon Basin ...
How the Company Makes Money
PetroTal primarily makes money by producing crude oil and selling it under commercial sales arrangements, with revenue largely determined by (1) production volumes from its operated fields—most notably Bretana (Block 95), (2) realized crude prices...
PetroTal Corp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented several strong positives: robust cash and low debt, meaningful reserve value, improving realized prices and netbacks, QoQ growth in adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, and a clearly articulated plan to restart an 8-well drilling campaign to return production toward a 20,000 bpd target. Offsetting these are significant near-term challenges: a substantial YoY production decline (−40%), higher per-barrel costs driven by lower volumes, a noncash impairment that depressed net income, and several execution/timing uncertainties (erosion control, El Niño risks, and undisclosed costs for larger water injection capacity). Overall, management conveyed confidence in growth prospects and financial resilience, but results remain contingent on successful and timely execution of the upcoming drilling and infrastructure programs.Positive Updates
Strong reserve base and track record
110 million barrels of remaining 2P reserves with an NPV10 of $1.2 billion; company has invested $675 million in Peru, generated over $1 billion of EBITDA to date and returned more than $150 million to shareholders; Bretaña field tripled in size since inception.
Negative Updates
Material production decline in Q2
Q2 production averaged 12,557 bpd, down 16% QoQ and down 40% YoY due to natural base declines while development drilling was paused; current levels are below 2025 volumes and require the planned drilling program to reverse the trend.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong reserve base and track record
110 million barrels of remaining 2P reserves with an NPV10 of $1.2 billion; company has invested $675 million in Peru, generated over $1 billion of EBITDA to date and returned more than $150 million to shareholders; Bretaña field tripled in size since inception.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 guidance of ~12,000 bpd average production and an adjusted EBITDA range of $110–$120M (earlier slide assumptions of 12,000 bpd and $83.60/bbl Brent implied ~$180M net operating income and ~ $170M EBITDA), with capital expenditures guided at $80–$90M (Camilo also referenced ~$85M in the guidance summary); first‑half adjusted EBITDA was $78.7M and first‑half CapEx $15.6M. Management expects available cash to rise from about $105M today to ~ $120M by year‑end (total cash $137M; total debt $37.5M), generating roughly $8M of after‑tax free funds flow for the year and no dividends in the baseline plan. Operationally they plan an 8‑well program (Estrella rig) to spud in early October, assuming ~5,000 bpd per new well, ~45–50 days per well, targeting >20,000 bpd monthly average by mid‑2027 (possible daily 20k in Q1 2027); Q2 production was 12,557 bpd (down 16% q/q, 40% y/y), Q2 adjusted EBITDA $43.5M and Q2 free funds flow $32.4M. Remaining 2P reserves were cited at 110 million barrels (NPV10 $1.2B) after 32 million barrels produced to date.PetroTal Corp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 238.50M | 283.53M | 363.51M | 286.26M | 327.12M | 159.19M |
| Gross Profit | 110.28M | 120.27M | 256.40M | 208.11M | 273.54M | 104.96M |
| EBITDA | 125.99M | 163.54M | 218.42M | 201.20M | 260.87M | 103.25M |
| Net Income | 15.42M | 44.96M | 111.45M | 110.50M | 188.53M | 63.97M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 765.32M | 803.68M | 810.47M | 658.29M | 602.88M | 398.29M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 127.00M | 129.20M | 102.78M | 90.57M | 104.34M | 44.92M |
| Total Debt | 74.40M | 98.58M | 64.69M | 28.87M | 101.09M | 115.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 229.88M | 289.35M | 298.96M | 194.34M | 203.55M | 194.03M |
| Stockholders Equity | 535.44M | 514.33M | 511.51M | 461.57M | 399.33M | 204.26M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 41.75M | 88.58M | 66.23M | 131.01M | 77.82M | -4.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 95.91M | 164.52M | 230.76M | 239.46M | 172.02M | 77.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -48.57M | -117.98M | -166.31M | -105.75M | -94.73M | -76.19M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -52.22M | -21.52M | -61.22M | -142.38M | -31.77M | 64.12M |
PetroTal Corp Technical Analysis
Positive
0.50
Price Trends
0.50
Positive
0.52
Negative
0.48
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
54.77
Neutral
80.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.48, above the 50-day MA of 0.50, and above the 200-day MA of 0.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TAL.
PetroTal Corp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | C$455.56M | 21.20 | 2.93% | 16.76% | -27.27% | -79.93% | |
59 Neutral | C$276.97M | -119.35 | -0.27% | 6.98% | 25.52% | -126.16% | |
57 Neutral | C$591.57M | -0.40 | -120.46% | 44.97% | -33.71% | -9581.24% | |
52 Neutral | C$507.10M | -119.40 | -2.18% | ― | 316.03% | 68.54% | |
48 Neutral | C$457.34M | -11.50 | -10.86% | 7.06% | 78.72% | -219.22% | |
45 Neutral | C$319.18M | -17.46 | -6.97% | ― | ― | 50.47% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:TAL
PetroTal Corp
0.50
-0.16
-23.85%
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29.55%
TSE:IPO
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TSE:CEI
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0.80
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-2.44%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.