ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$632.60M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 295.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 46.17%
• EPS Growth: -82.95%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 9
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 2,875,449,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 232,069
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 295,301
• PEG Ratio: -0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.12
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$221.51M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.22 ▲(1.82% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/09/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/09/26

The score is anchored by improving 2025 financial performance (profitability, positive free cash flow, and reduced leverage), but is held back by weak technical momentum and a very high P/E multiple with no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Improved leverage

A materially lower debt-to-equity (around 0.53 in 2025) and a more supportive equity base reduce financial strain and interest burden. This stronger capital structure increases resilience to commodity downturns, supports funding for modest capex or working capital, and improves long-term financial flexibility.

Positive free cash flow

Positive operating and free cash flow in 2025 indicates the business can internally fund operations and some investment without immediate external financing. Sustained FCF enables deleveraging, reinvestment in producing assets, and cushions cash volatility inherent in upstream cycles, supporting durability.

Stable upstream entitlement model

ShaMaran’s cash flows derive from contractual entitlements, cost-recovery and profit-oil frameworks in Kurdistan. Those legal/contractual revenue mechanics provide predictable allocation rules and recurring receipts when production is stable, giving a structural avenue to monetize production even amid operator-led execution.

Negative Factors

Cyclical earnings and cash flow

Historical swings (including a loss in 2023 and weak years like 2020) highlight pronounced commodity and operational cyclicality. That volatility complicates multi-quarter planning, weakens predictability of dividends or reinvestment, and raises the risk that a future price/production dip erodes recent improvements.

Reliance on operating partners

ShaMaran often holds non‑operated interests and depends on partners/operators for drilling, uptime and capital programs. Limited operational control raises execution risk, reduces visibility on schedules and costs, and can delay or diminish entitlements, undermining sustained production and cash generation.

Commodity and contract exposure

Revenue is tightly linked to oil prices, production volumes and contractually defined cost-recovery/profit-oil splits with the host government. This dual exposure to market and contractual mechanics limits margin control, amplifies revenue sensitivity to external shocks, and weakens long-term revenue predictability.

ShaMaran Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ShaMaran Petroleum Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of oil and gas. The company holds a 27.6% interest in the Atrush Block production sharing contract, which covers an area of 269 square kilometers located in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. It also provides technical and administration services. ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

ShaMaran Petroleum generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil produced from its operations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company operates production-sharing contracts (PSCs) with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which allows it to share in the revenues generated from oil sales after recouping its capital and operational expenditures. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil to various buyers, which may include local refineries and international markets. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships that enhance its operational capabilities and financial position, as well as potential future income from natural gas production and other hydrocarbons. Factors contributing to its earnings include oil market prices, production levels, and the efficiency of its extraction processes.

ShaMaran Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

2025 shows solid profitability and a meaningfully improved leverage profile, with positive net income and positive free cash flow. However, earnings and cash generation have been highly cyclical with large historical swings, reducing confidence in durability.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid in the most recent year (2025), with healthy gross and operating profitability and positive net income. Revenue is also growing meaningfully in 2025 after several volatile years. That said, results have been highly cyclical (notably a loss in 2023 and very weak 2020), and margins swung dramatically year-to-year, which lowers confidence in earnings durability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved materially over time: debt relative to equity has come down sharply versus earlier years, and the company now shows a more supportive equity base (2025 debt-to-equity around 0.53). Returns on equity are positive in 2025, but they are well below the exceptionally strong levels seen in peak years and have been negative in down-cycle periods (e.g., 2023), highlighting commodity and operating risk.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both positive in 2025, and free cash flow reasonably aligned with net income. The key weakness is volatility: free cash flow fell sharply in 2025 versus 2024 (large negative growth), and cash flow strength has fluctuated meaningfully across the history provided.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	157.58M	109.39M	82.89M	176.66M	102.32M
Gross Profit	65.08M	43.28M	30.52M	105.94M	49.89M
EBITDA	100.86M	150.66M	37.19M	198.49M	69.16M
Net Income	27.30M	82.22M	-26.71M	114.96M	13.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	451.94M	494.69M	450.41M	498.69M	368.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	42.05M	76.79M	48.88M	69.27M	43.59M
Total Debt	132.18M	215.19M	273.98M	285.51M	302.80M
Total Liabilities	202.62M	271.49M	310.98M	335.00M	349.93M
Stockholders Equity	249.32M	223.20M	139.43M	163.69M	18.54M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.32M	89.20M	12.44M	79.44M	49.68M
Operating Cash Flow	49.89M	97.97M	40.48M	105.28M	63.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.66M	-4.05M	-22.28M	-123.69M	9.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-76.69M	-89.10M	-52.26M	-47.48M	69.75M

ShaMaran Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SNM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.23, below the 50-day MA of 0.24, and below the 200-day MA of 0.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:SNM.

ShaMaran Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VLE	82 Outperform	C$1.34B	8.80	58.06%	―	23.77%	198.71%
TNZ	79 Outperform	C$1.79B	5.78	98.62%	―	194.52%	10204.44%
SGY	73 Outperform	C$815.44M	17.02	5.87%	7.59%	-7.36%	―
LGN	68 Neutral	C$497.01M	12.64	10.64%	―	40.83%	26.01%
OBE	62 Neutral	C$765.80M	16.60	-14.96%	―	-11.85%	-307.86%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
SNM	54 Neutral	C$632.60M	18.35	5.65%	―	46.17%	-82.95%

ShaMaran Petroleum Corporate Events

ShaMaran Halts Kurdistan Output After Explosion at Sarsang Facility

ShaMaran Petroleum reported that an explosion occurred at a processing facility in the Sarsang field in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, operated by HKN Energy. All personnel were safely accounted for with no injuries, and the operator is working with local authorities to assess the situation and safeguard nearby communities.

Operations at the Sarsang field have been suspended until the site is secured and fully evaluated, and production at ShaMaran’s Atrush asset has also been shut in as a precautionary measure. The incident temporarily halts output from two key Kurdish blocks for the company, underscoring operational risks in the region while the partners emphasize their commitment to safety and environmental responsibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SNM) stock is a Hold with a C$0.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ShaMaran Petroleum stock, see the TSE:SNM Stock Forecast page.

ShaMaran lifts 2025 earnings on Kurdistan export restart and eyes Oslo listing

ShaMaran reported a sharp improvement in 2025 financial performance, with fourth-quarter revenue up 57% year on year to $54.7 million and full-year revenue up 42% to $154.9 million, driven by the resumption of international oil exports at higher crude prices and increased working interest in the Atrush block. Gross margins and adjusted EBITDAX also rose strongly, although operating cash flow declined due to the timing of export receipts and higher spending on drilling, debottlenecking and maintenance across its Kurdish assets.

Operationally, debottlenecking lifted Atrush crude handling capacity to 40,000 barrels per day, and the company plans to drill additional wells to fill that capacity, subject to regional security conditions. ShaMaran has repaid $56.1 million of its corporate bond and a $15.6 million related-party loan while maintaining net debt just above $100 million, and it is seeking shareholder approval to shift its primary listing from Toronto to Oslo and re-domicile to Bermuda in a bid to broaden its investor base, increase liquidity and streamline future capital returns as interim export agreements in Iraq are extended and payment certainty improves.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SNM) stock is a Hold with a C$0.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ShaMaran Petroleum stock, see the TSE:SNM Stock Forecast page.

ShaMaran Flags Precautionary Production Halt in Kurdistan on Security Concerns

ShaMaran Petroleum reported that HKN Energy, operator of the Atrush and Sarsang blocks in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, has temporarily shut in production at both fields as a precaution amid a deteriorating regional security environment. The company said its assets and personnel remain unaffected and it is closely monitoring the situation with HKN, signaling potential short-term operational disruption but no immediate physical impact on its operations or workforce, with further updates to follow as conditions evolve.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SNM) stock is a Hold with a C$0.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ShaMaran Petroleum stock, see the TSE:SNM Stock Forecast page.

ShaMaran to Shift Primary Listing to Oslo and Redomicile to Bermuda

ShaMaran Petroleum plans to shift its primary stock exchange listing from the TSX Venture Exchange in Canada to the Euronext Growth Oslo market operated by the Oslo Stock Exchange, while maintaining its secondary listing on Nasdaq First North in Stockholm, as part of a broader strategy to better align with the Norwegian market where its bonds trade and its analyst coverage is concentrated. Concurrently, the company intends to continue from British Columbia to Bermuda to create a more efficient corporate structure, a move expected to facilitate dividend payments, attract additional international oil and gas investors, and increase trading liquidity; if approved by shareholders at a special meeting in March 2026 and completed, ShaMaran will delist from the TSXV, cease to be a Canadian reporting issuer, see Euroclear Sweden holdings converted into Swedish Depositary Receipts, and operate under Bermudan law with backing for the transition from its largest shareholder, the Lundin family trust.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SNM) stock is a Hold with a C$0.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ShaMaran Petroleum stock, see the TSE:SNM Stock Forecast page.