tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Frontera Energy Corporation (TSE:FEC)
TSX:FEC

Frontera Energy (FEC) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
54 Followers

Top Page

TS

Frontera Energy

(TSX:FEC)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$6.50
▲(2.52%Upside)
Frontera Energy's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and strategic initiatives for shareholder returns. The company's solid balance sheet and cash flow management are key strengths. However, moderate technical indicators and valuation concerns, alongside operational challenges, slightly temper the outlook.

Frontera Energy (FEC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Frontera Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFrontera Energy Corporation is a Canadian-based oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates primarily in Latin America, with significant operations in Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, and Peru. Frontera Energy focuses on maximizing the value of its asset portfolio through efficient exploration and production strategies, aiming to deliver sustainable growth and returns to its stakeholders.
How the Company Makes MoneyFrontera Energy makes money primarily through the exploration, extraction, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. Its revenue model is centered around the production and sale of these commodities in the global market. The company generates income by selling its oil and gas output to refineries, which then process the raw materials into various petroleum products for industrial and consumer use. Key revenue streams include crude oil production in Colombia and natural gas extraction in Peru, with additional contributions from exploration projects in Guyana and Ecuador. Frontera Energy's earnings are influenced by factors such as global oil prices, production volumes, and the efficiency of its operations. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other oil and gas companies, which enhance its exploration capabilities and market reach.

Frontera Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 34.32%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Frontera Energy's Q1 2025 performance shows strong financial results and strategic initiatives to enhance shareholder value. However, challenges in production and exploration, as well as legal disputes in Guyana, present significant hurdles.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Metrics
Frontera Energy generated $83.5 million in operating EBITDA and recorded $27.5 million in net income for Q1 2025. The company also maintained a strong balance sheet with a total cash balance of $199.8 million.
ODL Pipeline Recapitalization
Frontera announced a $220 million non-recourse secured loan for the recapitalization of the LDL pipeline, delivering approximately $115 million in proceeds to Frontera while maintaining future potential from key transportation assets in Colombia.
Strategic Shareholder Returns
The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.625 per share and plans to commence its NCIB program after the announced substantial issuer bid, having returned $190 million to stakeholders since 2024.
Operational Improvements in Q2
Despite challenges, Frontera's Q2 production has been strong with estimated average daily volumes of approximately 42,400 BOE per day in May.
Ethisphere Recognition
Frontera was recognized by Ethisphere as one of the world's most ethical companies for the fifth consecutive year.
Negative Updates
Production Challenges
Lower-than-expected production in Q1 due to delays in heavy oil drilling, lower water handling at SAARA, natural declines, and increased well interventions.
Exploration Challenges
The Greta Norte-1 well was deemed non-commercial and will be plugged and abandoned.
Guyana Dispute
Dispute with the government of Guyana over the termination of the petroleum agreement for the quarantine block, with Frontera alleging breaches of the UK-Guyana Bilateral Investment Treaty.
Company Guidance
During Frontera Energy's First Quarter 2025 conference call, the company reported generating $83.5 million in operating EBITDA and achieving a net income of $27.5 million. They produced $28.6 million of adjusted infrastructure EBITDA and maintained a total cash balance of $199.8 million. The company announced plans for a $220 million non-recourse secured loan related to its LDL pipeline investments, aiming to distribute approximately $115 million in proceeds. Additionally, Frontera launched a $65 million substantial issuer bid and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.625 per share, totaling $3.5 million. The company's 2025 production guidance was set at 41,000 to 43,000 BOE per day, with notable performance in its Colombian and Ecuadorian operations, despite facing challenges. Frontera's strategic initiatives focus on maximizing shareholder value, including potential infrastructure asset transactions and continued investor-focused measures such as dividends and buybacks, having returned $190 million to stakeholders since 2024.

Frontera Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Frontera Energy demonstrates resilience in its financials with stable revenue and cash flow amidst industry volatility. The company has improved its profitability and maintains a strong balance sheet. While there are areas for growth in net margins and ROE, the overall financial health is solid, supporting future operational stability and potential growth.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The income statement shows moderate performance with a gross profit margin of 23.0% and a net profit margin of 1.0% for TTM. Revenue growth is slightly positive, with a 0.24% increase from the previous year, and EBIT and EBITDA margins are at 8.9% and 34.1% respectively. The company recovered from a net loss in 2024 to a net profit in TTM, indicating stabilization.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 60.1% and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29. Return on Equity (ROE) is modest at 0.7% for TTM, suggesting limited profitability on shareholder investment. The company maintains a stable asset base with total assets slightly decreasing over the periods.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flows are robust with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 43.4. Free cash flow shows positive growth of 14.4% from the previous year, indicating effective cash management despite significant capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 15.4, highlighting good cash conversion.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.13B1.13B1.15B1.37B926.63M658.19M
Gross Profit
260.50M212.78M516.50M506.77M350.97M-187.13M
EBIT
100.57M116.66M154.17M467.31M332.13M-241.25M
EBITDA
385.78M390.90M523.25M777.26M807.66M-142.70M
Net Income Common Stockholders
11.87M-24.16M193.50M286.62M628.13M-481.91M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
257.50M192.58M159.67M289.85M257.50M232.29M
Total Assets
2.61B2.90B3.02B2.74B2.61B2.06B
Total Debt
560.13M506.04M536.82M511.55M560.13M538.24M
Net Debt
302.63M313.46M377.15M221.71M302.63M305.96M
Total Liabilities
1.16B1.17B1.18B1.15B1.16B1.30B
Stockholders Equity
1.40B1.72B1.82B1.58B1.40B703.85M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
182.33M159.38M-24.60M204.82M15.62M129.04M
Operating Cash Flow
514.55M510.03M411.79M620.48M327.38M226.78M
Investing Cash Flow
-330.71M-339.25M-484.32M-383.27M-186.94M-178.53M
Financing Cash Flow
-161.90M-128.86M-62.66M-193.60M-108.38M-132.53M

Frontera Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.34
Price Trends
50DMA
5.38
Positive
100DMA
6.43
Negative
200DMA
7.21
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.27
Negative
RSI
66.76
Neutral
STOCH
71.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FEC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.61, above the 50-day MA of 5.38, and below the 200-day MA of 7.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FEC.

Frontera Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSKEI
78
Outperform
C$331.80M11.5511.09%24.05%44.00%
TSFEC
72
Outperform
$479.23M27.770.67%3.97%-0.37%-92.83%
TSTNZ
67
Neutral
C$505.24M187.11-13.52%-3.50%-153.25%
TSLGN
64
Neutral
C$369.87M47.762.74%42.32%
57
Neutral
$7.22B3.15-4.49%5.63%0.82%-49.15%
TSCEI
55
Neutral
C$462.31M-6.69%41.39%-61.36%
TSOBE
50
Neutral
C$499.02M5.64-12.88%11.92%-304.98%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:FEC
Frontera Energy
6.34
-1.87
-22.73%
TSE:OBE
Obsidian Energy
7.36
-2.82
-27.70%
TSE:TNZ
Tenaz Energy Corp
18.39
14.86
420.96%
TSE:KEI
Kolibri Global Energy
9.28
4.51
94.55%
TSE:CEI
Coelacanth Energy, Inc.
0.87
0.12
16.00%
TSE:LGN
Logan Energy Corp
0.64
-0.20
-23.81%

Frontera Energy Corporate Events

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Launches CAD$91 Million Share Buyback
Positive
Jun 2, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced the launch of a substantial issuer bid, offering to purchase up to 7,583,333 common shares for cancellation at a price of CAD$12.00 per share, totaling up to CAD$91 million. This move is part of Frontera’s strategy to return capital to shareholders, and it follows previous share repurchases and dividends, potentially yielding a 24.9% return on the company’s stock price. The board remains committed to exploring further strategic initiatives to enhance shareholder value, though no specific plans are guaranteed.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Enhances Tender Offer for Senior Notes
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced an increase in the consideration and maximum tender amount for its outstanding 7.875% Senior Notes due 2028, as well as amendments to certain terms of the tender offer and consent solicitation. The maximum tender amount has been raised from $65 million to $80 million, and the consent payment has been increased, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder engagement by offering more favorable terms to noteholders.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Extends Tender Offer Deadline for Senior Notes
Neutral
May 27, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced an extension of the early tender date and consent deadline for its outstanding 7.875% Senior Notes due 2028. The extension allows noteholders additional time until June 9, 2025, to tender their notes or provide consents, with settlement expected on June 11, 2025. This move aims to facilitate the company’s cash tender offer and consent solicitation, although the requisite consents for proposed amendments have not yet been received. The company has satisfied the financing condition but reserves the right to amend or terminate the offer based on other conditions.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Frontera Energy Announces Successful Election of Directors at 2025 Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 23, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation announced the results of its 2025 annual and special meeting of shareholders, where all management-nominated directors were elected with an average approval rate of 97.19%. The meeting saw participation from shareholders representing approximately 68.69% of the company’s issued and outstanding common shares. The election of directors and the composition of the company’s committees, including the Audit Committee, Compensation and Human Resources Committee, and Corporate Governance, Nominating, and Sustainability Committee, were confirmed, which may impact the company’s strategic direction and governance.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Announces CAD$91 Million Share Buyback Initiative
Positive
May 22, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced a substantial issuer bid to purchase up to 7,583,333 common shares for CAD$12.00 per share, totaling CAD$91 million. This initiative is part of Frontera’s ongoing strategy to return capital to shareholders, having returned approximately US$144 million over the past year through various financial maneuvers. The offer reflects the company’s commitment to unlocking shareholder value and may lead to further strategic initiatives in the future.

Private Placements and FinancingStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Secures $220 Million Loan to Boost Investor Value and Strategic Growth
Positive
May 15, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has successfully closed and funded the recapitalization of its interest in the ODL pipeline through a new $220 million non-recourse, secured loan. This financial maneuver allows the company to distribute significant value to investors while preserving future growth potential for its key transportation asset in Colombia. The recapitalization provides Frontera with approximately $115 million in net proceeds, enabling it to offer a substantial issuer bid to repurchase common shares. Additionally, the exclusion of Puerto Bahía from the security package grants it greater flexibility for independent financing of strategic projects, enhancing Frontera’s operational and financial positioning.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Initiates Tender Offer for Senior Notes
Neutral
May 9, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced a cash tender offer and consent solicitation for up to $65 million of its outstanding 7.875% Senior Secured Notes due in 2028. This move is part of the company’s financial strategy to manage its debt obligations, potentially impacting its liquidity and financial flexibility. The offer includes an early tender and consent payment incentive for holders who respond by a specified deadline, indicating Frontera’s proactive approach to debt management and stakeholder engagement.

Private Placements and FinancingStock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Frontera Energy Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results and Strategic Initiatives
Positive
May 9, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation reported a strong financial performance in the first quarter of 2025, with a net income of $27.5 million and an operating EBITDA of $83.5 million. The company is advancing its strategic objectives, including the recapitalization of its ODL pipeline investment through a $220 million non-recourse secured loan, which is expected to yield $115 million in net proceeds. This move is part of Frontera’s broader strategy to enhance shareholder value, which includes a $65 million substantial issuer bid and a quarterly dividend declaration. Despite facing challenges such as lower production levels, Frontera is optimistic about future growth, particularly in its infrastructure assets and potential new projects in Puerto Bahia.

Financial Disclosures
Frontera Energy to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Apr 25, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation announced it will release its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025 on May 8, 2025, after market close. A conference call with key executives will follow on May 9, 2025, to discuss these results, providing stakeholders with insights into the company’s performance and strategic direction.

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera and CGX Dispute License Termination by Guyana Government
Negative
Mar 13, 2025

Frontera Energy and CGX Energy, through their joint venture, have received a notice from the Government of Guyana stating the termination of their Petroleum Agreement and Prospecting License for the Corentyne block offshore Guyana. Despite the government’s position, the joint venture maintains that their interests and license remain valid and seeks an amicable resolution with the government. They are prepared to assert their legal rights if necessary and are eager to continue their investments to benefit both the people of Guyana and their shareholders.

Business Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Recognized as One of the World’s Most Ethical Companies for 2025
Positive
Mar 11, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has been named one of the 2025 World’s Most Ethical Companies by Ethisphere for the fifth consecutive year, highlighting its dedication to business integrity through robust ethics, compliance, and governance programs. This recognition places Frontera among only two honorees in the Oil & Gas industry, reflecting its commitment to integrity and transparency, which fosters trust with stakeholders and enhances its industry positioning.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Frontera Energy Reports 2024 Financial Results and Operational Achievements
Neutral
Mar 10, 2025

Frontera Energy reported a net loss of $24.2 million for 2024, despite generating $116.7 million in income from operations and achieving an operating EBITDA of $424 million. The company met all 2024 guidance metrics, including an annual production of 40,288 Boe/d and a production cost of $9.34/boe. Frontera recorded 151.3 million Boe 2P gross reserves and a 1P reserves replacement ratio of 45%. The company also achieved its sustainability goals, including its best-ever TRIR performance, and declared a quarterly dividend of C$0.0625 per share.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.