Frontera Energy (FEC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$792.64M
• Dividend Yield: 4.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 44.06K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: -2.65%
• EPS Growth: -591.26%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,068
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 69,530,050
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 68,054
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 44,062
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.64
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.03B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: C$9.50 ▲(50.55% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/01/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/01/26

The score is held back primarily by poor recent financial performance (large net losses, negative operating margins, and slight revenue decline). Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend and positive MACD, but the extremely overbought RSI reduces confidence near-term. Valuation offers limited support given the negative P/E, with only a modest dividend yield as a positive.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Generation

Strong cash flow generation indicates Frontera Energy's ability to sustain operations and invest in growth despite profitability challenges.

Debt Management

Manageable leverage provides Frontera Energy with financial flexibility to navigate market fluctuations and invest in strategic initiatives.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships enhance Frontera Energy's market reach and operational efficiency, supporting long-term growth and competitive positioning.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue growth poses a risk to Frontera Energy's ability to maintain market share and profitability, impacting long-term sustainability.

Profitability Challenges

Substantial losses and negative profit margins highlight operational inefficiencies, threatening Frontera Energy's financial health and growth potential.

Operational Inefficiencies

Negative EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest operational inefficiencies, which could hinder Frontera Energy's ability to improve profitability and competitiveness.

Frontera Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Frontera Energy Corporation explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in South America. The company has a portfolio of assets, which consists of interests in 35 exploration and production blocks in Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, and Peru; and in pipeline and port facilities in Colombia. As of December 31, 2021, it had total proved plus probable reserves of 167 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company was formerly known as Pacific Exploration & Production Corporation and changed its name to Frontera Energy Corporation in June 2017. Frontera Energy Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Frontera Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates oil fields and natural gas assets, which contribute to its production volumes. Revenue is derived from the sale of these hydrocarbons at prevailing market prices, with significant contributions coming from export markets. Additionally, Frontera's revenue model includes long-term contracts with various customers, which provide stability in cash flow. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and alliances that enhance its operational efficiency and market access. Market factors such as global oil prices, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical dynamics in the regions where it operates also play a critical role in influencing its earnings.

Frontera Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak profitability and efficiency dominate (TTM net margin -40.22%, negative EBIT/EBITDA margins, revenue growth -1.97%), partially offset by moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.42) and comparatively better cash generation (TTM free cash flow growth 53.62%, operating cash flow to net income 0.82).

Income Statement

Frontera Energy's income statement shows significant challenges with declining revenue and profitability. The TTM data reveals a negative revenue growth rate of -1.97% and a net profit margin of -40.22%, indicating substantial losses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Historically, the company had positive margins, but recent performance has deteriorated.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates moderate financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -27.06%, highlighting poor profitability. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company's equity position appears relatively stable compared to its total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some positive aspects, with a free cash flow growth rate of 53.62% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.82, indicating that cash generation is relatively strong compared to net losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.25, reflecting challenges in converting earnings into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.07B	1.13B	1.15B	1.37B	926.63M	658.19M
Gross Profit	141.33M	212.78M	516.50M	506.77M	350.97M	-187.13M
EBITDA	-133.60M	390.90M	523.25M	777.26M	807.66M	-142.70M
Net Income	-431.67M	-24.16M	193.50M	286.62M	628.13M	-481.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.44B	2.90B	3.02B	2.74B	2.61B	2.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	220.82M	192.58M	159.67M	289.85M	257.50M	232.29M
Total Debt	532.79M	506.04M	536.82M	511.55M	560.13M	538.24M
Total Liabilities	1.20B	1.17B	1.18B	1.15B	1.16B	1.30B
Stockholders Equity	1.24B	1.72B	1.82B	1.58B	1.40B	703.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	154.96M	159.38M	-24.60M	204.82M	15.62M	129.04M
Operating Cash Flow	442.13M	510.03M	411.79M	620.48M	327.38M	226.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-302.45M	-339.25M	-484.32M	-383.27M	-186.94M	-178.53M
Financing Cash Flow	-208.58M	-128.86M	-62.66M	-193.60M	-108.38M	-132.53M

Frontera Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FEC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.48, below the 50-day MA of 7.93, and below the 200-day MA of 6.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.58 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FEC.

Frontera Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LGN	68 Neutral	C$456.56M	18.12	10.64%	―	40.83%	26.01%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
TAL	63 Neutral	C$365.19M	3.55	14.69%	21.85%	-2.90%	-31.97%
OBE	62 Neutral	C$719.49M	21.64	-14.96%	―	-11.85%	-307.86%
FEC	53 Neutral	C$792.64M	-1.49	-28.23%	4.07%	-2.65%	-591.26%
IPO	51 Neutral	C$432.32M	-46.34	-2.61%	12.70%	53.79%	-126.63%
CEI	49 Neutral	C$438.96M	-37.10	-7.05%	―	77.10%	-74.02%

Frontera Energy Corporate Events

Frontera Sells Colombian E&P Portfolio to GeoPark, Refocuses on Infrastructure and Capital Returns

Frontera Energy has agreed to sell its entire Colombian upstream exploration and production portfolio, including associated facilities such as the SAARA water treatment plant and the Proagrollanos palm oil operation, to GeoPark for up to $400 million in equity value and a firm transaction value of $622 million, with $375 million payable at closing and an additional $25 million tied to development milestones. The deal, which values the equity at a meaningful premium to Frontera’s recent trading levels, will see the company transfer its 2028 senior unsecured notes to GeoPark and use the net cash proceeds to return roughly $370 million to shareholders, helping bring total value delivered through its multi‑year capital return and strategic initiatives to about $1.1 billion, while recasting Frontera as an infrastructure‑centric business built around its ODL and Puerto Bahía assets and their projected $77 million in distributable cash flow in 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FEC) stock is a Hold with a C$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontera Energy stock, see the TSE:FEC Stock Forecast page.

Frontera Energy Secures New $120 Million Prepayment Deal With Chevron

Frontera Energy’s Colombian subsidiary has entered into a new $120 million prepayment and commercial agreement with Chevron, under which it will receive an initial $80 million advance and may draw an additional $40 million, in exchange for committing a portion of its crude oil deliveries over two years. The facility, priced at SOFR plus 4.25% with a six‑month grace period before repayments begin, is intended to bolster Frontera’s working capital and liquidity and will replace an existing prepayment agreement set to expire at the end of January 2026, providing continued financing flexibility for the company’s South American operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FEC) stock is a Hold with a C$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontera Energy stock, see the TSE:FEC Stock Forecast page.

Frontera Energy Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Expands U.S. Market Presence

Frontera Energy Corporation reported a net income of $25.4 million for the third quarter of 2025, driven by insurance recoveries and strong operational performance. The company achieved significant cost reductions and efficiency improvements, resulting in expected overhead savings of $10-$15 million. Frontera also declared a quarterly dividend and continued its share repurchase program, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Additionally, the company’s qualification for the OTCQX Best Market enhances its visibility and trading liquidity in the U.S., further strengthening its investor base and market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FEC) stock is a Hold with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontera Energy stock, see the TSE:FEC Stock Forecast page.

Frontera Energy to Spin Off Colombian Infrastructure Business

Frontera Energy Corporation announced a strategic spin-off of its Colombian Infrastructure business, resulting in the creation of two independent entities: Frontera Exploration & Production and Frontera Infrastructure. This move aims to unlock shareholder value by allowing each company to focus on its core operations and strategic priorities, with the spin-off expected to be completed in the first half of 2026, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FEC) stock is a Hold with a C$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontera Energy stock, see the TSE:FEC Stock Forecast page.