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Frontera Energy Corporation (TSE:FEC)
TSX:FEC
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Frontera Energy (FEC) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:FEC

Frontera Energy

(TSX:FEC)

Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
C$6.00
▲(0.84% Upside)
Frontera Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and profitability, and liquidity constraints. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation metrics highlight profitability concerns. Despite operational improvements and capital returns, the stock faces headwinds from industry pressures and recent impairment charges.

Frontera Energy (FEC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Frontera Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFrontera Energy Corporation explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in South America. The company has a portfolio of assets, which consists of interests in 35 exploration and production blocks in Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, and Peru; and in pipeline and port facilities in Colombia. As of December 31, 2021, it had total proved plus probable reserves of 167 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company was formerly known as Pacific Exploration & Production Corporation and changed its name to Frontera Energy Corporation in June 2017. Frontera Energy Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyFrontera Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is based on producing hydrocarbons from its extensive portfolio of exploration and production assets, where it sells the extracted resources to various customers, including refineries and other industrial users. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, which constitutes a significant portion of its income, followed by natural gas sales. Additionally, Frontera benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings also include fluctuations in global oil prices, operational efficiencies, and the company's ability to manage production costs effectively.

Frontera Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Frontera Energy demonstrated strong operational and financial management by reducing costs, increasing production, and effectively returning capital to shareholders. However, significant impairment charges and challenges in Guyana contributed to a net loss, balancing the positive aspects.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Frontera delivered $76.1 million in operating EBITDA and ended the quarter with a strong cash balance of $197.5 million. The company also successfully completed an $80 million tender offer and consent solicitation of its senior notes, reducing upstream net debt by 20%.
Increased Production
Total production increased to 41,055 barrels per day, driven by increased processing capacity, investments in new flow lines, and successful well interventions.
Cost Reductions
Production costs were reduced by 10.3% to $9.1 per barrel quarter-over-quarter, and transportation costs were reduced by 5.7% to $11.62 per barrel.
Successful Capital Return Strategy
Over the last 12 months, Frontera returned over $144 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, highlighting its commitment to returning capital to investors.
Sustainability and Operational Efficiency
Frontera achieved a total recordable incident rate of 0.71 and a water reuse rate of 37.6% within operational activities, reflecting progress towards 2028 sustainability goals.
Negative Updates
Impairment Charges
The company recognized non-cash impairment charges totaling $477 million related to the Corentyne license and Ecuador asset divestment, resulting in a net loss of $455.2 million for the quarter.
Challenges in Guyana
The 90-day consultation and negotiation period with the Government of Guyana ended without resolution, leading to uncertainty and an impairment of over $430 million related to the Corentyne block.
Lower Brent Prices Impact EBITDA
Operating EBITDA decreased by 9%, primarily due to lower Brent prices, which were 11% lower quarter-over-quarter.
Ecuador Asset Sale at Low Valuation
Divestment of non-core Perico and Espejo fields in Ecuador for $7.8 million plus contingent consideration was completed, potentially reflecting lower-than-expected asset valuation.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Frontera Energy provided guidance reflecting its strategic focus on operational efficiency and financial stability amid market volatility. The company achieved an operating EBITDA of $76.1 million and an adjusted infrastructure EBITDA of $27.1 million, ending the quarter with a strong cash balance of $197.5 million. It returned capital to investors through an $80 million tender offer and a substantial issuer bid of CAD 91 million, while also reducing its upstream net debt by 20%. Production increased to 41,055 barrels per day, with a 10.3% reduction in production costs to $9.1 per barrel and a 5.7% reduction in transportation costs to $11.62 per barrel. Despite a net loss of $455.2 million due to a $477 million impairment related to the Corentyne block, the company maintained its commitment to enhancing shareholder value through dividends and share buybacks, totaling over $144 million returned to shareholders in the past year. It adjusted its 2025 production guidance to 39,500-41,000 BOE per day and revised capital expenditure guidance downwards by $20 million, aiming for operating EBITDA of $320-$360 million at a $70 Brent price.

Frontera Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Frontera Energy faces significant challenges in maintaining revenue and profitability amidst industry pressures. The income statement shows declining revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet reflects stable leverage but declining returns on equity. Cash flow analysis reveals liquidity constraints, with declining free cash flow growth. Overall, the company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve cash generation to enhance financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Frontera Energy's income statement reveals a challenging environment with declining revenues and profitability. The TTM data shows a negative revenue growth rate of -3.3% and a net profit margin of 1.05%, indicating struggles in maintaining profitability. Historical data shows a significant drop in net income from 2021 to 2025, highlighting volatility in earnings. Despite a brief period of positive growth in 2022, the overall trend is negative, reflecting industry pressures and operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29 in the TTM period, suggesting manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity has decreased significantly from 44.8% in 2021 to 0.68% in the TTM period, indicating reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio remains stable, but the declining ROE is a concern for long-term value creation.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis indicates a decline in free cash flow growth by -44.7% in the TTM period, reflecting operational challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.35 indicates limited cash available for reinvestment or debt reduction, highlighting potential liquidity constraints.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.10B1.13B1.15B1.37B926.63M658.19M
Gross Profit165.50M212.78M516.50M506.77M350.97M-187.13M
EBITDA-109.13M390.90M523.25M777.26M807.66M-142.70M
Net Income-440.50M-24.16M193.50M286.62M628.13M-481.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.44B2.90B3.02B2.74B2.61B2.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments184.86M192.58M159.67M289.85M257.50M232.29M
Total Debt535.35M506.04M536.82M511.55M560.13M538.24M
Total Liabilities1.16B1.17B1.18B1.15B1.16B1.30B
Stockholders Equity1.28B1.72B1.82B1.58B1.40B703.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow100.87M159.38M-24.60M204.82M15.62M129.04M
Operating Cash Flow406.55M510.03M411.79M620.48M327.38M226.78M
Investing Cash Flow-300.72M-339.25M-484.32M-383.27M-186.94M-178.53M
Financing Cash Flow-99.67M-128.86M-62.66M-193.60M-108.38M-132.53M

Frontera Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price5.95
Price Trends
50DMA
6.33
Negative
100DMA
5.91
Positive
200DMA
6.72
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.08
Negative
RSI
43.74
Neutral
STOCH
83.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FEC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.07, below the 50-day MA of 6.33, and below the 200-day MA of 6.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:FEC.

Frontera Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
C$617.94M3.6191.45%65.41%573.12%
67
Neutral
C$450.78M18.759.82%42.95%4522.22%
66
Neutral
$15.26B7.303.22%5.27%4.16%-60.82%
65
Neutral
C$270.62M9.8710.49%9.28%37.20%
46
Neutral
$426.90M27.41-28.80%4.20%-3.16%-537.24%
$415.24M5.39-14.03%
47
Neutral
C$436.97M-7.43%28.22%-87.20%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:FEC
Frontera Energy
5.95
-1.82
-23.41%
OBE
Obsidian Energy
6.04
0.30
5.23%
TSE:TNZ
Tenaz Energy Corp
22.48
14.69
188.58%
TSE:KEI
Kolibri Global Energy
7.44
3.38
83.25%
TSE:CEI
Coelacanth Energy, Inc.
0.85
0.07
8.97%
TSE:LGN
Logan Energy Corp
0.80
0.00
0.00%

Frontera Energy Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Reshuffles CGX Energy Board to Strengthen Operations
Neutral
Aug 14, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation announced changes to the board of directors of CGX Energy Inc., with two of its officers joining the CGX Board while Gabriel de Alba resigned. This move is part of Frontera’s strategy to encourage CGX to preserve its resources and protect its rights and assets, which could impact stakeholders by potentially stabilizing CGX’s operations and enhancing its market position.

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Frontera Energy Reports Q2 2025 Results Amid Strategic Initiatives
Negative
Aug 14, 2025

Frontera Energy reported a net loss of $455.2 million in the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to non-cash impairment charges related to its interests in the Corentyne License and Ecuadorian assets. Despite this, the company increased total production by 1% quarter over quarter and generated $76.1 million in operating EBITDA. Frontera executed a substantial issuer bid and a capped tender offer, returning significant capital to shareholders. The company also declared a quarterly dividend and reduced its upstream net debt by 30%, underscoring its focus on returning capital to investors and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Divests Ecuadorian Assets to Focus on Colombian Operations
Neutral
Aug 6, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced the divestment of its 50% working interest in the Perico and Espejo blocks in Ecuador for a total cash consideration of $7.8 million, with an additional contingent consideration of $750,000. This move aligns with the company’s strategy to focus on maximizing value over volumes and concentrate on its higher-impact Colombian upstream operations. The transaction is expected to close by the second quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals, and reflects Frontera’s ongoing efforts to enhance the value of its common shares through strategic initiatives.

Legal ProceedingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy and CGX Energy Dispute Corentyne Block License with Guyana Government
Negative
Aug 1, 2025

Frontera Energy and CGX Energy have provided an update on their Corentyne block license, which is currently under dispute with the Government of Guyana. The government has rejected the joint venture’s claims of maintaining their license, stating it expired in June 2024, but is open to further discussions. The joint venture, holding a 100% working interest in the block, remains firm on their stance that their license is valid and is prepared to assert their legal rights if necessary. This ongoing dispute could impact Frontera’s operations and its strategic interests in the region.

Financial Disclosures
Frontera Energy to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jul 25, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation announced it will release its second-quarter 2025 financial and operational results on August 13, 2025. A conference call for investors and analysts is scheduled for August 14, 2025, featuring key members of the company’s senior management team. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Launches Share Buyback Program to Enhance Shareholder Value
Positive
Jul 16, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced the initiation of a normal course issuer bid (NCIB) approved by the Toronto Stock Exchange, allowing the company to repurchase up to 3,502,962 common shares, representing approximately 5% of its issued and outstanding shares. This move is part of Frontera’s strategy to enhance shareholder value by purchasing shares when their market price does not reflect the company’s underlying value and prospects. The NCIB will be facilitated through an automatic share purchase plan with BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., enabling purchases even during blackout periods, and the shares acquired will be cancelled, thus potentially increasing the value of remaining shares.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Completes $91 Million Share Repurchase
Positive
Jul 16, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has completed a substantial issuer bid, repurchasing 7,583,333 of its common shares at $12.00 per share, totaling approximately $91 million. This move is part of Frontera’s strategy to return value to shareholders, having returned over US$144 million in the past year through various capital distribution methods. The company plans to continue similar initiatives in 2025, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder value. The repurchase represents about 9.77% of the company’s outstanding shares, and the offer was oversubscribed, leading to a pro rata purchase of tendered shares.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Announces Preliminary Results of Substantial Issuer Bid
Positive
Jul 11, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced the preliminary results of its substantial issuer bid, where it offered to purchase up to CAD$91 million of its outstanding common shares for cancellation at a price of CAD$12.00 per share. The offer was oversubscribed, with approximately 71.93 million shares tendered, and Frontera expects to purchase around 9.77% of its total issued shares. This move is part of Frontera’s strategy to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value, with plans to initiate a normal course issuer bid following the completion of this offer.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Successfully Concludes Tender Offer and Consent Solicitation
Positive
Jun 10, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation announced the successful results of its cash tender offer and consent solicitation for its 7.875% Senior Notes due 2028. The company received requisite consents to amend the terms of the Notes and valid tenders exceeding the maximum tender amount, reducing its Notes by $80 million, which underscores its commitment to bondholders. This strategic move is part of Frontera’s broader focus on enhancing bondholder and investor value, ensuring long-term sustainability in a challenging macro-economic environment.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Launches CAD$91 Million Share Buyback
Positive
Jun 2, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced the launch of a substantial issuer bid, offering to purchase up to 7,583,333 common shares for cancellation at a price of CAD$12.00 per share, totaling up to CAD$91 million. This move is part of Frontera’s strategy to return capital to shareholders, and it follows previous share repurchases and dividends, potentially yielding a 24.9% return on the company’s stock price. The board remains committed to exploring further strategic initiatives to enhance shareholder value, though no specific plans are guaranteed.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Enhances Tender Offer for Senior Notes
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced an increase in the consideration and maximum tender amount for its outstanding 7.875% Senior Notes due 2028, as well as amendments to certain terms of the tender offer and consent solicitation. The maximum tender amount has been raised from $65 million to $80 million, and the consent payment has been increased, potentially impacting the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder engagement by offering more favorable terms to noteholders.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Extends Tender Offer Deadline for Senior Notes
Neutral
May 27, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced an extension of the early tender date and consent deadline for its outstanding 7.875% Senior Notes due 2028. The extension allows noteholders additional time until June 9, 2025, to tender their notes or provide consents, with settlement expected on June 11, 2025. This move aims to facilitate the company’s cash tender offer and consent solicitation, although the requisite consents for proposed amendments have not yet been received. The company has satisfied the financing condition but reserves the right to amend or terminate the offer based on other conditions.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Frontera Energy Announces Successful Election of Directors at 2025 Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 23, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation announced the results of its 2025 annual and special meeting of shareholders, where all management-nominated directors were elected with an average approval rate of 97.19%. The meeting saw participation from shareholders representing approximately 68.69% of the company’s issued and outstanding common shares. The election of directors and the composition of the company’s committees, including the Audit Committee, Compensation and Human Resources Committee, and Corporate Governance, Nominating, and Sustainability Committee, were confirmed, which may impact the company’s strategic direction and governance.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Frontera Energy Announces CAD$91 Million Share Buyback Initiative
Positive
May 22, 2025

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced a substantial issuer bid to purchase up to 7,583,333 common shares for CAD$12.00 per share, totaling CAD$91 million. This initiative is part of Frontera’s ongoing strategy to return capital to shareholders, having returned approximately US$144 million over the past year through various financial maneuvers. The offer reflects the company’s commitment to unlocking shareholder value and may lead to further strategic initiatives in the future.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025