Frontera Energy (FEC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $432.00M
• Dividend Yield: 3.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 44.06K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: -2.65%
• EPS Growth: -591.26%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,068
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 69,677,150
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 68,054
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 44,062
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.18
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -8.62
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: C$6.50 ▼(-0.91% Downside)

Frontera Energy's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges and valuation concerns, despite strong technical indicators. The earnings call provided a mixed outlook with operational improvements but significant impairment charges. The stock's bullish technical momentum is a positive factor, but the negative P/E ratio and financial constraints weigh heavily on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Cost Reductions

Reducing production costs enhances margin sustainability and improves competitive positioning, supporting long-term profitability.

Increased Production

Increased production capacity indicates operational efficiency and potential for revenue growth, strengthening market position.

Successful Capital Return Strategy

Returning capital to shareholders reflects strong cash generation and commitment to shareholder value, enhancing investor confidence.

Negative Factors

Impairment Charges

Significant impairment charges impact financial stability and indicate potential asset valuation issues, affecting long-term profitability.

Challenges in Guyana

Unresolved negotiations in Guyana create uncertainty, potentially hindering strategic operations and future growth in the region.

Declining Revenue Growth

Declining revenue growth and low profit margins indicate operational challenges, affecting long-term financial performance and market competitiveness.

Frontera Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Frontera Energy Corporation explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas in South America. The company has a portfolio of assets, which consists of interests in 35 exploration and production blocks in Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, and Peru; and in pipeline and port facilities in Colombia. As of December 31, 2021, it had total proved plus probable reserves of 167 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company was formerly known as Pacific Exploration & Production Corporation and changed its name to Frontera Energy Corporation in June 2017. Frontera Energy Corporation was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Frontera Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates oil fields and natural gas assets, which contribute to its production volumes. Revenue is derived from the sale of these hydrocarbons at prevailing market prices, with significant contributions coming from export markets. Additionally, Frontera's revenue model includes long-term contracts with various customers, which provide stability in cash flow. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and alliances that enhance its operational efficiency and market access. Market factors such as global oil prices, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical dynamics in the regions where it operates also play a critical role in influencing its earnings.

Frontera Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Frontera Energy faces significant challenges in maintaining revenue and profitability amidst industry pressures. The income statement shows declining revenue and profitability, while the balance sheet reflects stable leverage but declining returns on equity. Cash flow analysis reveals liquidity constraints, with declining free cash flow growth. Overall, the company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve cash generation to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Frontera Energy's income statement reveals a challenging environment with declining revenues and profitability. The TTM data shows a negative revenue growth rate of -3.3% and a net profit margin of 1.05%, indicating struggles in maintaining profitability. Historical data shows a significant drop in net income from 2021 to 2025, highlighting volatility in earnings. Despite a brief period of positive growth in 2022, the overall trend is negative, reflecting industry pressures and operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29 in the TTM period, suggesting manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity has decreased significantly from 44.8% in 2021 to 0.68% in the TTM period, indicating reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio remains stable, but the declining ROE is a concern for long-term value creation.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates a decline in free cash flow growth by -44.7% in the TTM period, reflecting operational challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.35 indicates limited cash available for reinvestment or debt reduction, highlighting potential liquidity constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.10B	1.13B	1.15B	1.37B	926.63M	658.19M
Gross Profit	165.50M	212.78M	516.50M	506.77M	350.97M	-187.13M
EBITDA	-109.13M	390.90M	523.25M	777.26M	807.66M	-142.70M
Net Income	-440.50M	-24.16M	193.50M	286.62M	628.13M	-481.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.44B	2.90B	3.02B	2.74B	2.61B	2.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	184.86M	192.58M	159.67M	289.85M	257.50M	232.29M
Total Debt	535.35M	506.04M	536.82M	511.55M	560.13M	538.24M
Total Liabilities	1.16B	1.17B	1.18B	1.15B	1.16B	1.30B
Stockholders Equity	1.28B	1.72B	1.82B	1.58B	1.40B	703.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	100.87M	159.38M	-24.60M	204.82M	15.62M	129.04M
Operating Cash Flow	406.55M	510.03M	411.79M	620.48M	327.38M	226.78M
Investing Cash Flow	-300.72M	-339.25M	-484.32M	-383.27M	-186.94M	-178.53M
Financing Cash Flow	-99.67M	-128.86M	-62.66M	-193.60M	-108.38M	-132.53M

Frontera Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.56
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FEC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.85, above the 50-day MA of 5.54, and above the 200-day MA of 5.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.87 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FEC.

Frontera Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KEI	66 Neutral	C$208.98M	7.77	9.49%	―	12.17%	6.99%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
LGN	64 Neutral	C$462.33M	19.23	10.64%	―	40.83%	26.01%
FEC	58 Neutral	$432.00M	―	-28.23%	3.81%	-2.65%	-591.26%
TNZ	56 Neutral	C$750.79M	4.25	98.62%	―	194.52%	10204.44%
OBE	50 Neutral	$523.40M	-2.47	-14.96%	―	-11.85%	-307.86%
CEI	46 Neutral	C$431.64M	-34.62	-7.05%	―	77.10%	-74.02%

Frontera Energy Corporate Events

Frontera Energy to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results

Frontera Energy Corporation announced it will release its financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 13, 2025, after market close. A conference call for investors and analysts is scheduled for November 14, 2025, featuring key members of the company’s senior management team. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FEC) stock is a Hold with a C$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Frontera Energy stock, see the TSE:FEC Stock Forecast page.

Frontera Energy’s Earnings Call: Balancing Gains and Challenges

Frontera Energy Corp’s recent earnings call revealed a balanced sentiment, showcasing strong operational and financial management with cost reductions, increased production, and effective capital returns. However, these positives were tempered by significant impairment charges and challenges in Guyana, leading to a net loss for the quarter.

Frontera Energy Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Frontera Energy Corporation is a Canadian public company engaged in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil and natural gas in South America, with a diverse portfolio of assets across Colombia, Ecuador, and Guyana.

Frontera Energy Reshuffles CGX Energy Board to Strengthen Operations

Frontera Energy Corporation announced changes to the board of directors of CGX Energy Inc., with two of its officers joining the CGX Board while Gabriel de Alba resigned. This move is part of Frontera’s strategy to encourage CGX to preserve its resources and protect its rights and assets, which could impact stakeholders by potentially stabilizing CGX’s operations and enhancing its market position.

Frontera Energy Reports Q2 2025 Results Amid Strategic Initiatives

Frontera Energy reported a net loss of $455.2 million in the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to non-cash impairment charges related to its interests in the Corentyne License and Ecuadorian assets. Despite this, the company increased total production by 1% quarter over quarter and generated $76.1 million in operating EBITDA. Frontera executed a substantial issuer bid and a capped tender offer, returning significant capital to shareholders. The company also declared a quarterly dividend and reduced its upstream net debt by 30%, underscoring its focus on returning capital to investors and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Frontera Energy Divests Ecuadorian Assets to Focus on Colombian Operations

Frontera Energy Corporation has announced the divestment of its 50% working interest in the Perico and Espejo blocks in Ecuador for a total cash consideration of $7.8 million, with an additional contingent consideration of $750,000. This move aligns with the company’s strategy to focus on maximizing value over volumes and concentrate on its higher-impact Colombian upstream operations. The transaction is expected to close by the second quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals, and reflects Frontera’s ongoing efforts to enhance the value of its common shares through strategic initiatives.