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Kolibri Global Energy (TSE:KEI)
TSX:KEI
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Kolibri Global Energy (KEI) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:KEI

Kolibri Global Energy

(TSX:KEI)

Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$8.00
▲(10.96% Upside)
Kolibri Global Energy's overall score reflects strong financial stability and cash flow management. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and recent earnings reveal challenges with declining revenue and profitability. The stock's valuation is reasonable, but the lack of a dividend yield may deter some investors.

Kolibri Global Energy (KEI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Kolibri Global Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKolibri Global Energy Inc. (KEI) is an energy company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. Operating within the energy sector, KEI focuses on leveraging advanced technology and sustainable practices to efficiently extract and produce hydrocarbons. The company's core services include the identification and development of oil and gas reserves, with a particular emphasis on maximizing resource recovery and operational efficiency.
How the Company Makes MoneyKolibri Global Energy Inc. generates revenue through the sale of crude oil and natural gas extracted from its developed reserves. The company identifies lucrative oil and gas fields, invests in the necessary infrastructure to drill and extract these resources, and then sells the produced hydrocarbons to various markets. KEI's revenue streams are primarily driven by the volume of oil and gas it produces and the prevailing market prices for these commodities. Additionally, the company's earnings are influenced by its ability to manage operational costs and optimize production efficiency. Significant partnerships with service providers and technology firms may also enhance KEI's operational capabilities and contribute to its financial performance.

Kolibri Global Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant production growth, operational efficiency, and financial flexibility with an increased credit facility and planned production expansion. However, these positives were offset by substantial declines in net revenue, netback, adjusted EBITDA, and net income due to lower average prices. The sentiment of the call is balanced with both positive operational achievements and negative financial results.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Average Production
Average production increased by 3% to 3,220 BOE per day compared to the previous year quarter. For the year-to-date, production was up 13% to 3,646 BOE per day.
Operational Efficiency
Operating expenses remained low at $7.15 per BOE. G&A expenses decreased by 9% due to lower accounting and auditing fees.
Expansion of Credit Facility
The credit facility borrowing base increased by 30% from $50 million to $65 million, providing more flexibility in managing working capital.
Forward-Looking Production Plans
Nine new wells are expected to start production in the second half of the year, anticipated to significantly increase production and cash flow.
Share Buybacks
Continuing to return capital to shareholders through share buybacks, with 130,000 shares purchased in July.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Net Revenue
Net revenue decreased by 22% to $10.8 million due to a 24% decrease in average prices and lower oil production.
Decline in Netback from Operations
Netback from operations decreased to $29.66 per BOE compared to $40.40 in the prior year quarter due to lower average prices.
Decrease in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA was $7.7 million, a decrease of 23% from the prior year quarter, attributed to lower prices.
Decrease in Net Income
Net income decreased to $2.9 million from $4.1 million in the prior year quarter due to lower revenue.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Kolibri Global Energy achieved an average production of 3,220 BOE per day, marking a 3% increase from the prior year's quarter, despite a temporary reduction of 540 BOE per day due to Lovina well completions. Operating expenses remained low at $7.15 per BOE. However, net revenue decreased by 22% to $10.8 million due to a 24% drop in average prices. Adjusted EBITDA was $7.7 million, and net income was $2.9 million, translating to $0.08 per share. The company's netback from operations fell to $29.66 per BOE, primarily due to lower average prices. Year-to-date production rose by 13% to 3,646 BOE per day, with a slight 3% decrease in net revenue to $27.2 million. The company increased its borrowing base by 30% to $65 million, supporting future operations. Kolibri plans to add nine new wells in the second half of the year, anticipating substantial production and cash flow growth. The company also continues to return capital to shareholders through share buybacks, purchasing around 130,000 shares in July.

Kolibri Global Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kolibri Global Energy demonstrates strong equity and cash flow management, with a low debt-to-equity ratio and robust operating cash flow. However, inconsistent revenue growth and declining profitability margins present challenges.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Kolibri Global Energy shows a fluctuating yet generally positive trend in its revenue and profitability metrics. The gross profit margin for 2024 is 46.09%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 24.28% from 16.76% in 2023, mainly due to reduced revenue. The EBIT margin is absent for 2024, highlighting a potential area for improvement. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant decline from 2023 to 2024.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects strong equity, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18 in 2024, demonstrating low leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is robust at 9.60%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 75.89%, indicating financial stability and low reliance on external debt.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.15 for 2024, indicating high-quality earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.42, highlighting efficient capital expenditure management. A notable improvement in free cash flow from negative in 2023 to positive in 2024 suggests enhanced cash generation capabilities.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue73.48M74.59M114.99M48.38M19.13M12.25M
Gross Profit33.82M34.40M80.29M25.07M8.42M2.21M
EBITDA44.47M43.34M40.01M28.90M9.29M3.91M
Net Income19.33M18.11M19.28M13.04M71.00M-71.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets262.82M248.76M224.36M184.08M157.02M82.18M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.13M4.31M1.44M1.04M7.32M920.00K
Total Debt31.07M33.99M30.84M17.85M16.91M20.86M
Total Liabilities64.42M59.95M53.94M33.88M23.93M26.54M
Stockholders Equity198.39M188.81M170.41M150.20M133.09M55.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.99M7.64M-14.53M-15.05M5.61M6.11M
Operating Cash Flow44.37M38.89M38.65M22.04M6.30M6.11M
Investing Cash Flow-34.57M-36.21M-49.87M-29.24M-2.88M-1.64M
Financing Cash Flow-7.22M1.04M10.79M922.00K2.98M-6.64M

Kolibri Global Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price7.21
Price Trends
50DMA
8.33
Negative
100DMA
8.86
Negative
200DMA
9.09
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.22
Negative
RSI
44.64
Neutral
STOCH
74.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.82, below the 50-day MA of 8.33, and below the 200-day MA of 9.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:KEI.

Kolibri Global Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$15.28B7.483.19%5.33%4.10%-60.58%
65
Neutral
C$263.53M9.8010.49%9.28%37.20%
$404.82M5.39-14.03%
$301.57M28.91-28.80%4.18%
69
Neutral
C$617.94M3.5491.45%65.41%573.12%
$355.43M2.3824.71%
67
Neutral
C$462.33M19.239.82%42.95%4522.22%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:KEI
Kolibri Global Energy
7.21
3.15
77.59%
OBE
Obsidian Energy
5.84
0.10
1.74%
FECCF
Frontera Energy
4.30
-1.46
-25.35%
TSE:TNZ
Tenaz Energy Corp
22.07
14.28
183.31%
OILSF
Saturn Oil & Gas
1.80
-0.05
-2.70%
TSE:LGN
Logan Energy Corp
0.78
-0.02
-2.50%

Kolibri Global Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kolibri Global Energy Sees Production Growth and Future Expansion
Positive
Aug 11, 2025

Kolibri Global Energy Inc. reported a 3% increase in average production for the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year, despite temporary production setbacks from shut-in wells. The company anticipates a significant production boost in the latter half of 2025 with the introduction of nine new wells. Despite a decrease in net income and adjusted EBITDA due to lower prices and revenues, the company has managed to reduce its production and operating expenses per barrel by 16%. The strategic drilling and completion of new wells are expected to enhance production and cash flow, positioning Kolibri for growth in the coming quarters.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEI) stock is a Buy with a C$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kolibri Global Energy stock, see the TSE:KEI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kolibri Global Energy Reports 72% Increase in Q1 2025 Net Income
Positive
May 14, 2025

Kolibri Global Energy Inc. reported a significant 72% increase in net income for the first quarter of 2025, reaching $5.8 million, driven by a 23% rise in production and reduced commodity contract losses. The company achieved a 24% increase in adjusted EBITDA due to higher revenue, while also reducing production and operating expenses per barrel. The company is advancing its drilling operations with longer lateral wells, which has improved internal rates of return and reduced costs. The completion of four Lovina wells is expected to start in late May, with production anticipated in the third quarter, alongside the successful drilling of the Forguson well, which is also expected to begin production in the third quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEI) stock is a Buy with a C$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kolibri Global Energy stock, see the TSE:KEI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025