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Kolibri Global Energy (TSE:KEI)
TSX:KEI
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Kolibri Global Energy (KEI) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:KEI

Kolibri Global Energy

(TSX:KEI)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$9.00
▲(14.50% Upside)
Kolibri Global Energy's overall score reflects strong financial management and positive corporate developments, tempered by weak technical indicators and valuation concerns. The company's strategic focus on production growth and financial flexibility provides a positive outlook, despite current revenue and profitability challenges.

Kolibri Global Energy (KEI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Kolibri Global Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKolibri Global Energy Inc. (KEI) is an energy company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. Operating within the energy sector, KEI focuses on leveraging advanced technology and sustainable practices to efficiently extract and produce hydrocarbons. The company's core services include the identification and development of oil and gas reserves, with a particular emphasis on maximizing resource recovery and operational efficiency.
How the Company Makes MoneyKolibri Global Energy Inc. generates revenue through the sale of crude oil and natural gas extracted from its developed reserves. The company identifies lucrative oil and gas fields, invests in the necessary infrastructure to drill and extract these resources, and then sells the produced hydrocarbons to various markets. KEI's revenue streams are primarily driven by the volume of oil and gas it produces and the prevailing market prices for these commodities. Additionally, the company's earnings are influenced by its ability to manage operational costs and optimize production efficiency. Significant partnerships with service providers and technology firms may also enhance KEI's operational capabilities and contribute to its financial performance.

Kolibri Global Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -9.03%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed performance with significant operational achievements like increased production and financial flexibility through credit expansion, alongside challenges such as reduced net revenue and income due to lower oil prices. The strategic focus on future production growth and share buybacks adds a positive outlook despite current financial setbacks.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Production
Average production increased by 3% to 3,220 BOE per day despite temporary shut-ins, and year-to-date production increased by 13% to 3,646 BOE per day.
Operating Expenses Management
Operating expenses remain low at $7.15 per BOE, contributing to cost efficiency.
Credit Facility Expansion
The borrowing base was increased by 30% from $50 million to $65 million, providing more financial flexibility.
Share Buyback Initiative
The company repurchased about 130,000 shares in July, indicating a focus on returning capital to shareholders.
Upcoming Production Increase
Nine new wells are expected to start production in the second half of the year, anticipated to significantly increase production and cash flow.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Net Revenue
Net revenue decreased by 22% to $10.8 million due to a 24% decrease in average prices and lower production from shut-in wells.
Decline in Net Income and EPS
Net income decreased to $2.9 million with basic EPS of $0.08 per share, compared to $4.1 million or $0.11 per share in the prior year second quarter.
Reduced Netback from Operations
Netback from operations decreased to $29.66 per BOE from $40.40 in the prior year quarter, mainly due to lower average prices.
Company Guidance
In Kolibri Global Energy's second quarter 2025 conference call, the company reported an average production increase of 3% to 3,220 BOE per day, despite temporarily shutting in 540 BOE per day of wells. Operating expenses remained low at $7.15 per BOE. Net revenue decreased by 22% to $10.8 million, attributed to a 24% decline in average prices and reduced oil production from shut-in wells. Adjusted EBITDA fell 23% to $7.7 million, and net income was $2.9 million, translating to $0.08 per share. The netback from operations decreased to $29.66 per BOE, largely due to lower average prices. Year-to-date, production rose 13% to 3,646 BOE per day, while net revenue slightly decreased by 3% to $27.2 million. Net income for the year-to-date was $8.6 million with EPS of $0.24. The credit facility borrowing base increased by 30% to $65 million, and the company plans to bring nine new wells into production in the second half of the year, which is expected to enhance cash flow. Additionally, Kolibri executed share buybacks of approximately 130,000 shares in July.

Kolibri Global Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kolibri Global Energy maintains a stable financial profile with strong equity and cash flow management. However, inconsistent revenue growth and profitability margins present challenges. Sustaining long-term financial health requires a focus on operational efficiency and revenue generation.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Kolibri Global Energy shows a fluctuating yet generally positive trend in its revenue and profitability metrics. The gross profit margin for 2024 is 46.09%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 24.28% from 16.76% in 2023, mainly due to reduced revenue. The EBIT margin is absent for 2024, highlighting a potential area for improvement. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant decline from 2023 to 2024.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects strong equity, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18 in 2024, demonstrating low leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is robust at 9.60%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 75.89%, indicating financial stability and low reliance on external debt.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.15 for 2024, indicating high-quality earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.42, highlighting efficient capital expenditure management. A notable improvement in free cash flow from negative in 2023 to positive in 2024 suggests enhanced cash generation capabilities.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue74.59M114.99M48.38M19.13M12.25M
Gross Profit34.40M80.29M25.07M8.42M2.21M
EBITDA43.34M40.01M28.90M9.29M3.91M
Net Income18.11M19.28M13.04M71.00M-71.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets248.76M224.36M184.08M157.02M82.18M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.31M1.44M1.04M7.32M920.00K
Total Debt33.99M30.84M17.85M16.91M20.86M
Total Liabilities59.95M53.94M33.88M23.93M26.54M
Stockholders Equity188.81M170.41M150.20M133.09M55.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.64M-14.53M-15.05M5.61M6.11M
Operating Cash Flow38.89M38.65M22.04M6.30M6.11M
Investing Cash Flow-36.21M-49.87M-29.24M-2.88M-1.64M
Financing Cash Flow1.04M10.79M922.00K2.98M-6.64M

Kolibri Global Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price7.86
Price Trends
50DMA
8.73
Negative
100DMA
9.23
Negative
200DMA
8.94
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.21
Positive
RSI
41.87
Neutral
STOCH
4.74
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.21, below the 50-day MA of 8.73, and below the 200-day MA of 8.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.74 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:KEI.

Kolibri Global Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$485.23M2.4024.71%36.69%
70
Outperform
C$427.66M18.999.82%42.95%4522.22%
69
Neutral
C$276.50M10.3610.49%9.28%37.20%
63
Neutral
$425.96M27.41-28.80%4.22%-3.16%-537.24%
56
Neutral
C$4.19B2.0016.25%5.63%10.50%-54.55%
53
Neutral
C$530.53M3.1091.45%65.41%573.12%
50
Neutral
$534.22M5.64-14.03%1.49%-313.99%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:KEI
Kolibri Global Energy
7.86
3.64
86.26%
TSE:OBE
Obsidian Energy
7.75
-1.81
-18.93%
TSE:FEC
Frontera Energy
5.92
-2.22
-27.24%
TSE:SOIL
Saturn Oil & Gas
2.54
-0.04
-1.55%
TSE:TNZ
Tenaz Energy Corp
19.27
11.30
141.78%
TSE:LGN
Logan Energy Corp
0.79
-0.11
-12.22%

Kolibri Global Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kolibri Global Energy Sees Production Growth and Future Expansion
Positive
Aug 11, 2025

Kolibri Global Energy Inc. reported a 3% increase in average production for the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year, despite temporary production setbacks from shut-in wells. The company anticipates a significant production boost in the latter half of 2025 with the introduction of nine new wells. Despite a decrease in net income and adjusted EBITDA due to lower prices and revenues, the company has managed to reduce its production and operating expenses per barrel by 16%. The strategic drilling and completion of new wells are expected to enhance production and cash flow, positioning Kolibri for growth in the coming quarters.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEI) stock is a Buy with a C$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kolibri Global Energy stock, see the TSE:KEI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kolibri Global Energy Reports 72% Increase in Q1 2025 Net Income
Positive
May 14, 2025

Kolibri Global Energy Inc. reported a significant 72% increase in net income for the first quarter of 2025, reaching $5.8 million, driven by a 23% rise in production and reduced commodity contract losses. The company achieved a 24% increase in adjusted EBITDA due to higher revenue, while also reducing production and operating expenses per barrel. The company is advancing its drilling operations with longer lateral wells, which has improved internal rates of return and reduced costs. The completion of four Lovina wells is expected to start in late May, with production anticipated in the third quarter, alongside the successful drilling of the Forguson well, which is also expected to begin production in the third quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEI) stock is a Buy with a C$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kolibri Global Energy stock, see the TSE:KEI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 12, 2025