Kolibri Global Energy (TSE:KEI)
TSX:KEI
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Kolibri Global Energy
(TSX:KEI)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$8.00
▲(47.87% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/16/26
The score is driven by strong technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD) and a constructive earnings outlook featuring record operating performance and guided production growth with ongoing debt paydowns. This is balanced by financial watch-items—most notably negative recent free cash flow and some cost/commodity-volatility and execution risks highlighted on the earnings call—while valuation appears reasonable at ~12x earnings.
Positive Factors
Multi‑year production growth
Sustained, multi-year production growth builds a larger, more predictable cash‑flow base and spreads fixed costs over higher volumes. A 35% three‑year CAGR and record quarterly output indicate scalable operations and stronger future operating leverage that support durable free cash flow upside if costs are managed.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow trend
Recurring negative free cash flow suggests capital spending and other outlays are absorbing operating cash, raising reliance on credit or equity to fund growth. If this persists it can constrain reinvestment, limit buybacks/debt reduction choices, and elevate execution and funding risk during lower commodity price periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi‑year production growth
Sustained, multi-year production growth builds a larger, more predictable cash‑flow base and spreads fixed costs over higher volumes. A 35% three‑year CAGR and record quarterly output indicate scalable operations and stronger future operating leverage that support durable free cash flow upside if costs are managed.
Read all positive factors
Kolibri Global Energy (KEI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$251.48M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)27.92K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.9
Beta (1Y)-0.21
Revenue Growth-1.94%
EPS Growth-33.43%
CountryCA
Employees8
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.38
Shares Outstanding35,474,304
10 Day Avg. Volume29,365
30 Day Avg. Volume27,921
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.87
Price to Book (P/B)0.69
Price to Sales (P/S)2.42
P/FCF Ratio-6.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$77.66M
Kolibri Global Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kolibri Global Energy Inc. engages in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of oil and gas. in the United States. It produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company primarily held an...
How the Company Makes Money
KEI primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil and natural gas (and associated natural gas liquids, if applicable) from its operated and non-operated oil and gas wells. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold under sales ...
Kolibri Global Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and financial picture: record production, revenue and adjusted EBITDA, meaningful production growth and an increased credit facility combined with active debt reduction and higher working interests in new wells. Offsetting items included a drop in net income driven by a $2.9M noncash unrealized loss, a 13% rise in operating expense per BOE driven by several one‑time/front‑loaded costs, and remaining unhedged production exposure. Management expects some OpEx normalization and continues to execute a growth plan (three-well program, share buybacks, additional debt paydowns) supported by stronger oil prices and hedging coverage.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Production, Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
First quarter 2026 delivered company-record results: average production 4,685 BOE/day, net revenue $19.6M (up 20% YoY from $16.4M), and adjusted EBITDA $14.8M (up 16% YoY from $12.8M).
Negative Updates
Net Income Decline Due to Large Noncash Unrealized Loss
Net income fell to $4.0M ($0.11 per basic share) from $5.8M ($0.16) in the prior-year quarter. The decrease was driven primarily by a $2.9M noncash mark-to-market unrealized loss on commodity contracts caused by the March oil-price increase.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Production, Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
First quarter 2026 delivered company-record results: average production 4,685 BOE/day, net revenue $19.6M (up 20% YoY from $16.4M), and adjusted EBITDA $14.8M (up 16% YoY from $12.8M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided toward continued production growth driven by its three‑well Clifton Mack program (drilling underway, wells expected online in Q3; ~20 days per well and ~3 months start‑to‑finish) while prioritizing capital allocation choices between drilling, buybacks and debt reduction; Q1 metrics underpinning that guidance included average production 4,685 BOE/d (up 15% YoY, vs 4,493 BOE/d in Q4‑2025), net revenue $19.6M (+20% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $14.8M (+16% YoY), net income $4.0M ($0.11/sh), operating expense $8.00/BOE (vs $7.07/BOE prior year), netback from operations $38.41/BOE (netback incl. contracts $37.72/BOE), average oil ~$70.31/bbl, a $2.9M non‑cash unrealized loss on commodity contracts, and a 35% 3‑year CAGR in production; balance sheet moves include credit capacity redetermined to $75M (from $65M), net debt $45M (down from $46M) with a $4M post‑quarter paydown and a planned additional $4M in May, working interest in the new wells increased to ~88% (from ~67%), hedges were in place by March 31 covering ~50% of projected production (more collars than swaps plus deferred puts), and management quantified that about every $5/bbl of price improvement adds roughly $2.8M to EBITDA (net of hedges).Kolibri Global Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 63.47M | 57.85M | 74.59M | 114.99M | 48.38M | 19.13M |
| Gross Profit | 37.01M | 31.00M | 34.40M | 80.29M | 25.07M | 8.42M |
| EBITDA | 42.68M | 40.88M | 43.34M | 40.01M | 28.90M | 75.50M |
| Net Income | 13.78M | 15.75M | 18.11M | 19.28M | 13.04M | 71.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 293.55M | 293.41M | 248.76M | 224.36M | 184.08M | 157.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.69M | 2.79M | 4.31M | 1.44M | 1.04M | 7.32M |
| Total Debt | 49.38M | 50.45M | 33.99M | 30.84M | 17.85M | 16.91M |
| Total Liabilities | 84.83M | 89.90M | 59.95M | 53.94M | 33.88M | 23.93M |
| Stockholders Equity | 208.71M | 203.50M | 188.81M | 170.41M | 150.20M | 133.09M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -14.51M | -21.62M | 7.64M | -14.53M | -15.05M | 5.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 40.34M | 42.12M | 38.89M | 38.65M | 22.04M | 6.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -58.93M | -56.15M | -36.21M | -49.87M | -29.24M | -2.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 16.41M | 12.49M | 1.04M | 10.79M | 922.00K | 2.98M |
Kolibri Global Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
5.41
Price Trends
7.48
Negative
6.51
Positive
6.52
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
48.87
Neutral
15.37
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.62, below the 50-day MA of 7.48, and below the 200-day MA of 6.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEI.
Kolibri Global Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | C$275.35M | 10.26 | 33.26% | 8.04% | -9.76% | -21.70% | |
78 Outperform | C$304.51M | 9.08 | 25.87% | 8.44% | 27.04% | 39.61% | |
75 Outperform | C$251.48M | 13.87 | 6.79% | ― | -1.94% | -33.43% | |
74 Outperform | C$97.33M | 3.05 | 18.65% | 2.08% | -24.38% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
56 Neutral | C$234.09M | -10.00 | -4.63% | ― | -11.05% | -1520.04% | |
42 Neutral | C$232.92M | -17.23 | -24.85% | ― | ― | -27.99% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:KEI
Kolibri Global Energy
7.45
-2.25
-23.20%
TSE:ALV
Alvopetro Energy
8.41
2.91
52.88%
TSE:HME
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2.93
1.28
77.47%
TSE:SEI
Sintana Energy
0.43
-0.11
-19.81%
TSE:BNE
Bonterra Energy
6.66
3.07
85.52%
TSE:ORC.B
Orca Exploration Group
3.45
2.22
180.03%
Kolibri Global Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kolibri Global Energy Backs Shareholder-Proposed Slate in Board Overhaul
Positive
Mar 28, 2026
Kolibri Global Energy Inc., a North American oil and gas exploration and production company with U.S. operating properties, is pursuing growth by acquiring additional energy projects while maintaining listings on both the TSX and NASDAQ. Its strat...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kolibri Boosts Proved Developed Reserves 30% as Lower Oil Price Assumptions Hit Valuations
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
Kolibri Global Energy reported a 30% increase in proved developed producing reserves for 2025, driven by its drilling program in Oklahoma’s Caney shale, even as total proved reserves edged up only 1% after producing about 1.5 million BOE. Th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.