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Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (TSE:KEI)
:KEI

Kolibri Global Energy (KEI) AI Stock Analysis

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Kolibri Global Energy

(TSX:KEI)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$10.50
▲(15.64%Upside)
Kolibri Global Energy's overall stock score reflects a strong financial and operational performance, particularly highlighted by the recent earnings call. The company's solid balance sheet and cash flow management underpin its financial health. While technical indicators suggest caution, the strategic improvements in production and operational efficiencies offer a positive long-term outlook.

Kolibri Global Energy (KEI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Kolibri Global Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKolibri Global Energy Inc. (KEI) is a publicly traded energy company primarily focused on the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. Operating in the energy sector, KEI leverages its expertise to manage and extract hydrocarbon resources efficiently, with a particular emphasis on unconventional resource plays. The company's core operations are centered in North America, where it aims to optimize production and generate sustainable value from its assets.
How the Company Makes MoneyKolibri Global Energy generates revenue through the extraction and sale of oil and natural gas. The company drills and operates wells, primarily in North America, to produce hydrocarbons which are then sold to refineries and distributors. KEI's revenue streams are significantly influenced by market prices for oil and natural gas, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and expand its asset base, thereby potentially increasing its revenue. Commodity price fluctuations, regulatory changes, and technological advancements are key factors that can impact KEI's earnings.

Kolibri Global Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.09%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance with significant production increases, income growth, and operational efficiencies, although there were slight declines in netback due to lower average prices. The company's strategic focus on drilling efficiency and shareholder returns further emphasizes a positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Production Increase
Production increased by 23% over the first quarter of 2024, reaching 4,077 BOE per day compared to 3,305 BOE per day in the prior year.
Net Income Growth
Net income increased by 72% to $5.8 million with basic EPS of $0.16 per share compared to $3.3 million and $0.09 per share in the prior year quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA Increase
Adjusted EBITDA rose by 24% to $12.8 million from $10.4 million in the prior year quarter.
Operating Expense Reduction
Operating expenses decreased by 15% to $7.07 per BOE, down from $8.36 per BOE in the prior year first quarter.
Drilling Efficiency Improvements
Drilling times were reduced by 25% for the latest 1.5-mile lateral wells, resulting in cost savings and improved internal rates of return.
Capital Return to Shareholders
The company plans to continue returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks.
Negative Updates
Netback Decline
Netback from operations decreased slightly to $37.55 per BOE compared to $38.94 per BOE in the prior year quarter due to lower average prices.
Lower Average Prices
Average prices were down by 6%, partially offsetting the revenue gains from increased production.
Company Guidance
During Kolibri Global Energy's First Quarter 2025 Financial Conference Call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics. Production increased by 23% compared to the first quarter of 2024, reaching an average of 4,077 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day. Operating expenses were reduced to $7.07 per BOE, a 15% decrease from the previous year, which contributed to strong netbacks. Net income rose significantly by 72% to $5.8 million, with earnings per share at $0.16, up from $0.09 in the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA also saw a 24% increase, reaching $12.8 million, driven by higher revenues despite a 6% decline in average prices. The company emphasized improved drilling efficiencies, with a 25% reduction in drilling times for 1.5-mile lateral wells, which is expected to yield additional financial savings. The successful quarter has set a positive outlook for further production increases upon completion of new wells later in the quarter.

Kolibri Global Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kolibri Global Energy demonstrates a strong financial profile with notable strengths in equity and cash flow management. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage and a high equity ratio. While cash flow metrics are robust, the company faces challenges in maintaining consistent revenue growth and profitability margins.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Kolibri Global Energy shows a fluctuating yet generally positive trend in its revenue and profitability metrics. The gross profit margin for 2024 is 46.09%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 24.28% from 16.76% in 2023, mainly due to reduced revenue. The EBIT margin is absent for 2024, highlighting a potential area for improvement. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a significant decline from 2023 to 2024.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects strong equity, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18 in 2024, demonstrating low leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is robust at 9.60%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 75.89%, indicating financial stability and low reliance on external debt.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.15 for 2024, indicating high-quality earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.42, highlighting efficient capital expenditure management. A notable improvement in free cash flow from negative in 2023 to positive in 2024 suggests enhanced cash generation capabilities.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue74.59M114.99M48.38M19.13M12.25M
Gross Profit34.40M80.29M25.07M8.42M2.21M
EBITDA43.34M40.01M28.90M9.29M3.91M
Net Income18.11M19.28M13.04M71.00M-71.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets248.76M224.36M184.08M157.02M82.18M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.31M1.44M1.04M7.32M920.00K
Total Debt33.99M30.84M17.85M16.91M20.86M
Total Liabilities59.95M53.94M33.88M23.93M26.54M
Stockholders Equity188.81M170.41M150.20M133.09M55.65M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.64M-14.53M-15.05M5.61M6.11M
Operating Cash Flow38.89M38.65M22.04M6.30M6.11M
Investing Cash Flow-36.21M-49.87M-29.24M-2.88M-1.64M
Financing Cash Flow1.04M10.79M922.00K2.98M-6.64M

Kolibri Global Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price9.08
Price Trends
50DMA
9.35
Negative
100DMA
10.18
Negative
200DMA
8.36
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Positive
RSI
43.64
Neutral
STOCH
28.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.48, below the 50-day MA of 9.35, and above the 200-day MA of 8.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:KEI.

Kolibri Global Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$419.09M2.6622.02%37.66%782.26%
TSKEI
75
Outperform
C$317.27M11.2011.09%24.05%44.00%
TSFEC
72
Outperform
C$520.97M30.180.67%3.61%-0.37%-92.83%
TSTNZ
69
Neutral
C$563.24M187.11-13.52%-3.50%-153.25%
TSLGN
60
Neutral
C$329.41M44.032.74%42.32%
52
Neutral
C$2.91B-1.09-3.26%6.12%5.32%-43.41%
TSOBE
50
Neutral
$545.39M5.64-12.88%11.92%-304.98%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:KEI
Kolibri Global Energy
9.00
4.24
89.08%
TSE:OBE
Obsidian Energy
7.93
-2.29
-22.41%
TSE:FEC
Frontera Energy
6.75
-0.82
-10.79%
TSE:SOIL
Saturn Oil & Gas
2.14
-0.54
-20.15%
TSE:TNZ
Tenaz Energy Corp
20.33
16.55
437.83%
TSE:LGN
Logan Energy Corp
0.59
-0.31
-34.44%

Kolibri Global Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kolibri Global Energy Reports 72% Increase in Q1 2025 Net Income
Positive
May 14, 2025

Kolibri Global Energy Inc. reported a significant 72% increase in net income for the first quarter of 2025, reaching $5.8 million, driven by a 23% rise in production and reduced commodity contract losses. The company achieved a 24% increase in adjusted EBITDA due to higher revenue, while also reducing production and operating expenses per barrel. The company is advancing its drilling operations with longer lateral wells, which has improved internal rates of return and reduced costs. The completion of four Lovina wells is expected to start in late May, with production anticipated in the third quarter, alongside the successful drilling of the Forguson well, which is also expected to begin production in the third quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEI) stock is a Buy with a C$6.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kolibri Global Energy stock, see the TSE:KEI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kolibri Global Energy Announces Q1 2025 Earnings Release and Investor Engagement Initiatives
Neutral
Apr 15, 2025

Kolibri Global Energy Inc. has announced plans to release its first quarter 2025 financial and operating results on May 14, 2025, followed by a conference call for investors and analysts. Additionally, the company will participate in a Renmark virtual webinar and has updated its corporate presentation available on its website. These activities highlight Kolibri’s efforts to engage with stakeholders and provide transparency about its operations and strategic direction.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025