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Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (TSE:SOIL)
:SOIL
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Saturn Oil & Gas (SOIL) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:SOIL

Saturn Oil & Gas

(OTC:SOIL)

Rating:84Outperform
Price Target:
C$3.00
▲(13.21% Upside)
Saturn Oil & Gas receives a high score due to its strong financial performance, technical indicators, and valuation. The company's robust earnings call further supports the positive outlook, despite some financial risks related to leverage and cost management.

Saturn Oil & Gas (SOIL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Saturn Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSaturn Oil & Gas (SOIL) is a Canadian-based oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the development of its significant asset base in the Williston Basin. The company specializes in the acquisition, exploration, and production of crude oil, leveraging advanced drilling techniques and technologies to optimize resource extraction. SOIL is committed to sustainable practices and aims to enhance operational efficiencies while maximizing shareholder value through its strategic initiatives.
How the Company Makes MoneySaturn Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company profits from the sale of these hydrocarbons in various markets, benefiting from fluctuating oil and gas prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of produced oil and gas, royalties from production, and potentially, revenue from partnerships or joint ventures in exploration projects. Additionally, efficient operational practices and cost management play a significant role in enhancing profit margins. The company's strategic focus on high-potential areas, such as the Williston Basin, positions it to capitalize on favorable market conditions and increases in demand for energy resources.

Saturn Oil & Gas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Saturn's strong production performance, significant debt reduction, and successful share buyback strategies. However, the company faced challenges with low capital expenditure in Q2 and commodity price volatility. Overall, the positive aspects, particularly financial achievements and operational efficiency, outweigh the negatives.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Production and Operating Cost Success
For the third consecutive quarter, production was above the high end of guidance at over 40,400 BOE a day. Operating costs were under the low end of the guidance range.
Debt Reduction Achievement
Net debt reduced by nearly $120 million over the prior quarter, with net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA falling to 1.3x.
Successful Share Buyback Initiatives
Saturn returned $3.3 million to shareholders, canceling around 2 million common shares, and had a market cap increase of over $100 million following the SIB announcement.
Strong Well Performance
Saturn's volumes averaged 40,417 BOE per day, reflecting ongoing well outperformance and effective type curves, including innovative drilling techniques.
Record Free Funds Flow
Record free funds flow of $93 million was generated during the quarter, despite a decline in WTI prices and a stronger Canadian dollar.
Negative Updates
Limited Capital Expenditure in Q2
The second quarter experienced the lowest capital expenditure period due to spring breakup, affecting production and financial metrics.
Commodity Price Volatility
Commodity price volatility influenced the company's decisions on capital allocation and delayed the execution of the Q3 capital program.
Company Guidance
During Saturn's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided a comprehensive update on its financial and operational performance, highlighting several key metrics. Saturn reported production levels that exceeded the high end of their guidance at over 40,400 BOE per day and achieved operating costs below the low end of their guidance. Additionally, the company surpassed analyst forecasts with an adjusted funds flow of $109 million and a record free funds flow of $93 million. Saturn significantly reduced its net debt to $695 million, a reduction of nearly $120 million from the previous quarter, surpassing their forecasted reduction target. The net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA ratio fell to 1.3x by the end of the quarter. Furthermore, Saturn executed a $5 million tuck-in acquisition in Southeast Saskatchewan, contributing significantly to cash flow. The company also emphasized ongoing share repurchase initiatives, buying back 11.2 million shares since August 2024 and returning $24 million to shareholders, while maintaining strong financial flexibility with up to $300 million in total liquidity.

Saturn Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Saturn Oil & Gas demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability with a net profit margin of 15.96% and an EBIT margin of 30.69%. The company's balance sheet indicates effective leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11, although there is moderate equity ratio risk. Cash flow management is robust with an 85% increase in free cash flow, though capital expenditures remain high.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Saturn Oil & Gas shows robust revenue growth with a significant increase from $337M in 2022 to $971M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. The gross profit margin remains strong at approximately 57.1% in TTM 2025, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin improved significantly to 15.96% in TTM 2025, reflecting increasing profitability. The EBIT margin also improved to 30.69%. Overall, the company demonstrates strong growth and improving profitability, though historical volatility in net income is noted.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.11 in TTM 2025, indicating a balanced capital structure that leverages debt effectively. Return on equity (ROE) improved to 18.48%, showing effective utilization of equity in generating profits. However, the equity ratio is moderate at 38.29%, suggesting a fair level of financial stability but potential risks if the debt levels increase further.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Free cash flow grew impressively by 85% from 2024 to TTM 2025, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.63 demonstrates efficient cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.78, reflecting a healthy ability to convert earnings into free cash. The company shows strong cash flow management, though capital expenditure remains substantial.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.03B920.79M624.83M337.19M98.42M7.16M
Gross Profit560.59M577.69M270.83M247.64M56.03M5.28M
EBITDA674.19M405.17M586.73M144.85M-40.28M5.39M
Net Income208.16M54.11M290.62M74.81M-65.06M-7.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.10B2.16B1.34B582.91M221.11M40.31M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments49.25M48.42M26.46M18.74M8.88M613.00K
Total Debt836.54M951.84M458.01M245.84M94.95M29.94M
Total Liabilities1.17B1.36B726.55M444.39M251.41M36.71M
Stockholders Equity929.57M803.97M608.66M138.52M-30.31M3.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow167.47M65.62M153.41M13.21M-9.98M-277.00K
Operating Cash Flow446.41M311.94M283.99M102.31M-1.28M851.00K
Investing Cash Flow-314.94M-749.53M-576.40M-318.24M-87.86M-1.35M
Financing Cash Flow-163.45M459.55M308.62M223.76M90.99M-38.00K

Saturn Oil & Gas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.65
Price Trends
50DMA
2.40
Positive
100DMA
2.11
Positive
200DMA
2.07
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.05
Positive
RSI
64.42
Neutral
STOCH
72.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SOIL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.55, above the 50-day MA of 2.40, and above the 200-day MA of 2.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SOIL.

Saturn Oil & Gas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
84
Outperform
C$511.07M2.5424.71%36.69%
65
Neutral
$15.27B7.604.09%5.25%4.03%-61.87%
$302.54M28.91-28.80%4.17%
69
Neutral
C$598.15M3.4491.45%65.41%573.12%
67
Neutral
C$445.00M18.279.82%42.95%4522.22%
65
Neutral
C$251.13M9.6610.49%9.28%37.20%
50
Neutral
C$271.17M-89.06%17.26%65.00%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:SOIL
Saturn Oil & Gas
2.65
0.32
13.73%
FECCF
Frontera Energy
4.31
-1.43
-24.91%
TSE:TNZ
Tenaz Energy Corp
22.12
14.04
173.76%
TSE:KEI
Kolibri Global Energy
7.48
3.45
85.61%
TSE:GASX
NG Energy International
1.05
0.07
7.14%
TSE:LGN
Logan Energy Corp
0.77
0.03
4.05%

Saturn Oil & Gas Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saturn Oil & Gas Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results with Significant Debt Reduction
Positive
Jul 30, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. announced its second-quarter 2025 results, highlighting a significant net debt reduction of $119 million from the previous quarter, driven by strategic debt repayments and favorable foreign exchange rates. The company achieved record free funds flow of $93 million, bolstered by strong production performance and cost management, which supports its financial flexibility and long-term sustainability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Hold with a C$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saturn Oil & Gas to Announce Q2 2025 Results and Host Conference Call
Neutral
Jul 18, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. has announced that it will release its Q2 2025 financial results on July 30, 2025, after market close. A conference call and webcast will follow on July 31, 2025, providing an overview of the results and a Q&A session with the leadership team. This announcement is part of Saturn’s ongoing efforts to engage with investors and stakeholders, reflecting its commitment to transparency and strategic growth in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Saturn Oil & Gas Completes Substantial Issuer Bid and Plans to Resume Share Buybacks
Positive
Jul 16, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. announced the results of its substantial issuer bid, purchasing 1,608,182 common shares at $2.15 per share, totaling approximately $3.46 million. This purchase represents about 0.8% of the company’s outstanding shares. The company plans to resume its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) to continue purchasing shares, aiming to maximize its daily purchase limit. This strategic move is expected to enhance shareholder value and reflects Saturn’s ongoing commitment to efficient capital management.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Saturn Oil & Gas Expands Credit Facility to Bolster Asset Development
Positive
Jul 2, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. has announced the renewal and expansion of its $150 million syndicated credit facility, which now includes an uncommitted accordion feature allowing for a $100 million increase, bringing the potential total to $250 million. This move reflects Saturn’s strong financial position and provides the company with the flexibility to continue developing its light oil-weighted assets, supporting its strategic blueprint and enhancing its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Saturn Oil & Gas Launches Substantial Issuer Bid to Enhance Shareholder Value
Positive
Jun 11, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. has launched a substantial issuer bid to purchase up to 7,000,000 common shares for cancellation at CAD$2.15 per share, totaling up to $15,050,000. This initiative is part of Saturn’s strategy to maximize shareholder value, supplementing previous share repurchases and debt repayments. The company has returned over $34 million to shareholders since August 2024 and repaid approximately $91 million of debt. Saturn plans to continue exploring capital return initiatives to enhance equity value, although future actions depend on business results and strategic goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Saturn Oil & Gas Announces Substantial Issuer Bid to Enhance Shareholder Value
Positive
Jun 5, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. has announced its intention to commence a substantial issuer bid, offering $2.15 per common share, which represents a 20% premium over the current share price. This initiative is part of Saturn’s strategy to return capital to shareholders, with a potential total of $15 million to be returned, bringing total share repurchases to approximately $34 million since August 2024. The company aims to enhance shareholder value through this bid, supported by cost savings and production outperformance, while maintaining financial flexibility for future capital return initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Hold with a C$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. Reports Successful AGM Voting Results
Positive
May 22, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. announced the successful voting results from their Annual General Meeting, where all proposed matters were approved. The meeting saw 74.12% of the company’s outstanding shares voted, and all eight director nominees were elected with strong support. The appointment of KPMG LLP as the auditor was also confirmed. This approval reflects shareholder confidence in Saturn’s strategic direction and governance, reinforcing its position in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025