Saturn Oil & Gas (TSE:SOIL)
TSX:SOIL
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Saturn Oil & Gas
(TSX:SOIL)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$8.00
▲(59.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial performance (strong operating cash flow but cyclical volatility and meaningful leverage) and strong technical uptrend/momentum. The latest earnings call adds support via continued operational outperformance and deleveraging, while valuation is a drag due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistently positive operating cash flow and generally healthy free cash flow provide durable internal funding for drilling, debt reduction, and buybacks. This cash-generative profile supports reinvestment and financial flexibility across commodity cycles despite some free cash flow volatility tied to capex and prices.
Negative Factors
Hedging limits upside and creates earnings volatility
Mandatory multi-quarter hedging both caps upside in rising oil markets and produces realized and unrealized losses that distort reported earnings. Over time this structural hedging policy reduces sensitivity to price rallies, constraining free cash flow growth when market prices outperform the hedged strikes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistently positive operating cash flow and generally healthy free cash flow provide durable internal funding for drilling, debt reduction, and buybacks. This cash-generative profile supports reinvestment and financial flexibility across commodity cycles despite some free cash flow volatility tied to capex and prices.
Read all positive factors
Saturn Oil & Gas (SOIL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)348.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.03
Revenue Growth-2.78%
EPS Growth-83.12%
CountryCA
Employees342
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding180,809,000
10 Day Avg. Volume302,543
30 Day Avg. Volume348,064
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.53
P/FCF Ratio2.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$5.50Price Target Upside9.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$866.40M
Saturn Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of petroleum and natural gas resource deposits in Canada. It is involved in the exploration and development of light oil assets in the Oxbow area of Southeast Saskatche...
How the Company Makes Money
Saturn Oil & Gas primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—mainly crude oil and also natural gas—into market. Revenue is generated based on the volume of hydrocarbons produced from its wells and the realized prices received (whic...
Saturn Oil & Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: production and cash generation beat expectations, net debt was reduced, buybacks and disciplined capital allocation were emphasized, and high-performing wells demonstrated strong capital efficiency. Key negatives included realized and unrealized hedging losses that distorted reported earnings, contractual hedging coverage that limits upside in strong price rallies, seasonal drilling constraints and a potential refinancing cost. On balance, the highlights (consistent outperformance, deleveraging, buybacks, efficient well results and flexibility to accelerate capital) outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Production Outperformance
Q1 2026 production exceeded 43,100 BOE/day, beating analyst expectations for the seventh consecutive quarter and surpassing Saturn's quarterly guidance by more than 1,600 BOE/day.
Negative Updates
Realized and Unrealized Hedging Losses
Realized hedging loss of $21 million (≈ $5.45/BOE) in Q1 as market prices exceeded strike levels; a large unrealized hedging loss also materially impacted reported net income and EPS (noncash), creating volatility in reported earnings despite strong cash flows.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Outperformance
Q1 2026 production exceeded 43,100 BOE/day, beating analyst expectations for the seventh consecutive quarter and surpassing Saturn's quarterly guidance by more than 1,600 BOE/day.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance reiterated that after a strong Q1 (production >43,100 BOE/d, beating guidance by >1,600 BOE/d; adjusted funds flow $170M or $0.59/share; free funds flow $62M; Q1 capex $45M for 23 gross wells; royalties ~11%; operating costs $20.49/BOE; realized hedging loss $21M or $5.45/BOE; net debt down 5% to ≈$725M), the company will accelerate ~$20M of H2 capital into Q2 so Q2 capex is now expected at $35–40M with quarterly volumes of ~40,000–41,000 bbl/d, target rigs returning late May–mid‑June to reach five rigs in Q2 (six after July) and bring forward ~10–12 Q3 wells plus 4–5 West Central wells; management said the 2026 budget was set on $60 WTI but could expand full‑year capex (up to roughly a 50% increase to about $300M) if oil holds in the mid‑ to upper‑$70s/$80s, while continuing to prioritize debt reduction, NCIB repurchases (181M shares outstanding; NCIB limit ~12.1M shares; Q1 repurchases ≈$12M/3.7M shares + $3.4M/600k since), maintaining ~50% rolling hedges (currently ~55–60%), and preserving liquidity (credit facility $150M with $14M drawn and accordion to $250M) with tax pools of ≈$1.6B deferring cash tax until 2028+.Saturn Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 936.17M | 881.65M | 920.79M | 624.83M | 337.19M | 98.42M |
| Gross Profit | 389.19M | 232.93M | 577.69M | 270.83M | 247.64M | 56.03M |
| EBITDA | 573.40M | 517.85M | 405.17M | 567.87M | 143.92M | -40.84M |
| Net Income | 32.43M | 167.57M | 54.11M | 290.62M | 74.81M | -65.06M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.17B | 2.19B | 2.16B | 1.34B | 582.91M | 221.11M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 48.42M | 26.46M | 18.74M | 8.88M |
| Total Debt | 799.60M | 827.17M | 951.84M | 458.01M | 247.19M | 95.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.33B | 1.24B | 1.36B | 726.55M | 444.39M | 251.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 845.78M | 946.59M | 803.97M | 608.66M | 138.52M | -30.31M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 192.58M | 216.16M | 65.62M | 153.41M | 13.21M | -9.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 405.27M | 457.40M | 311.94M | 283.99M | 102.31M | -1.28M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -329.34M | -374.39M | -749.53M | -576.40M | -318.24M | -87.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -155.41M | -131.43M | 459.55M | 308.62M | 223.76M | 90.99M |
Saturn Oil & Gas Technical Analysis
Positive
5.03
Price Trends
5.82
Positive
4.39
Positive
3.50
Positive
Market Momentum
0.37
Positive
63.08
Neutral
75.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SOIL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.64, below the 50-day MA of 5.82, and above the 200-day MA of 3.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SOIL.
Saturn Oil & Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$542.99M | 6.13 | 5.39% | 21.85% | -29.99% | -70.33% | |
69 Neutral | C$1.32B | -2.94 | 12.43% | ― | -2.78% | -83.12% | |
66 Neutral | C$1.00B | -9.41 | 1.01% | 7.59% | -12.78% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | C$1.00B | -11.13 | -120.46% | 4.07% | -33.71% | -9581.24% | |
55 Neutral | C$1.24B | -11.89 | 0.46% | ― | -34.90% | ― | |
48 Neutral | C$494.29M | -3.65 | -10.86% | 12.70% | 119.35% | -533.65% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:SOIL
Saturn Oil & Gas
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5.50
331.33%
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Saturn Oil & Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Saturn Oil & Gas Posts Record 2025 Cash Flow as Production Beats Guidance and Debt Falls
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Saturn Oil Gas reported strong 2025 results, with fourth-quarter production averaging 43,657 boe/d, exceeding guidance and lifting full-year output to 41,728 boe/d, a 46% increase in production per debt-adjusted share versus 2024. The company gen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.