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Saturn Oil & Gas (TSE:SOIL)
TSX:SOIL
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Saturn Oil & Gas (SOIL) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:SOIL

Saturn Oil & Gas

(TSX:SOIL)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$3.00
▲(19.05% Upside)
Saturn Oil & Gas receives a strong overall score due to its robust financial performance and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call. The stock's undervaluation further supports its attractiveness. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to weak momentum, and high leverage remains a risk factor.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates effective market positioning and operational efficiency, supporting long-term financial stability and shareholder value.
Strategic Acquisitions
Strategic acquisitions enhance production capacity and asset optimization, positioning the company for sustained growth and competitive advantage.
Technological Advancements
Technological advancements in drilling improve operational efficiency and reduce costs, enhancing long-term profitability and competitive positioning.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting financial flexibility and increasing vulnerability to market fluctuations, impacting long-term stability.
Cost Management Issues
Cost management issues can erode profit margins, affecting operational efficiency and long-term profitability, necessitating strategic focus on cost control.
Challenging Price Environment
A challenging price environment can pressure revenue and profitability, requiring strategic adaptation to maintain financial performance and market position.

Saturn Oil & Gas (SOIL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Saturn Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSaturn Oil & Gas Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of petroleum and natural gas resource deposits in Canada. It is involved in the exploration and development of light oil assets in the Oxbow area of Southeast Saskatchewan; Viking light oil assets in West-Central Saskatchewan; Cardium light oil assets in Central Alberta; Montney and Swan Hills light oil in North Alberta. Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneySaturn Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company profits from the sale of these hydrocarbons in various markets, benefiting from fluctuating oil and gas prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of produced oil and gas, royalties from production, and potentially, revenue from partnerships or joint ventures in exploration projects. Additionally, efficient operational practices and cost management play a significant role in enhancing profit margins. The company's strategic focus on high-potential areas, such as the Williston Basin, positions it to capitalize on favorable market conditions and increases in demand for energy resources.

Saturn Oil & Gas Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong production numbers, cost efficiency, and strategic acquisitions that enhanced production capacity and shareholder value. Despite a challenging price environment and increased net debt, the company demonstrated resilience and technological advancements in drilling, supporting future growth.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Production and Cost Efficiency
Q3 production averaged over 41,100 barrels a day, exceeding previous guidance and analyst consensus. BOE operating cost in Q3 came in at $19.24, below the $20 per BOE annual target.
Strategic Tuck-in Acquisitions
Completed two tuck-in acquisitions: one in Southeast Saskatchewan adding 4,100 BOE/day for $63 million and another in Central Alberta adding 1,300 BOE/day for $22 million. These acquisitions were strategic for capital efficiency and asset optimization.
Shareholder Returns
From August 2024 to present, nearly 16 million shares were bought back, returning approximately $36 million to shareholders. Production per share increased by 22% over a similar timeframe.
Strong Financial Performance
Produced revenue over $235 million and adjusted funds flow of $103 million, a 17% increase per share compared to the third quarter of 2024.
Technological Advancements in Drilling
Successfully drilled the fastest extended reach horizontal Cardium well on record, achieving well completion in only 4.8 days.
Negative Updates
Challenging Price Environment
WTI prices fell 14% compared to the 2024 period, impacting revenue potential.
Increased Net Debt
Net debt at September 30 was $783 million, influenced by tuck-in acquisition activity, restart of the drilling program, and foreign exchange rate movements.
Company Guidance
During Saturn's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics reflecting their strong performance and strategic pivot in response to market conditions. Saturn's Q3 production averaged over 41,100 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, exceeding both previous guidance and analyst consensus. The company also reported a BOE operating cost of $19.24, better than the annual target of $20 per BOE. Saturn made a strategic decision to reduce its original $300 million development capital budget by 18% to approximately $255 million, focusing instead on opportunistic tuck-in acquisitions. This approach led to acquisitions in Southeast Saskatchewan and Central Alberta, adding a combined 5,400 BOE per day of production at cost-effective rates. The company aims to exit the year with a production range of 43,000 to 44,000 BOE per day. Financially, Saturn generated $235 million in revenue and $103 million in adjusted funds flow, a 17% increase per share from the previous year. With a net debt of $783 million, Saturn maintains strong liquidity, supported by a cash reserve and credit facilities, and plans to release its 2026 budget in mid-December.

Saturn Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Saturn Oil & Gas shows strong revenue growth and profitability with robust margins. However, high leverage and potential cost management issues pose risks. The cash flow position is improving, but further enhancement in free cash flow relative to net income is needed.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Saturn Oil & Gas has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 5.61% increase in TTM, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 74.76% and 20.16% respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 27.75% and 42.14%, indicating efficient operations. However, the decline in gross profit from the previous year suggests potential cost management issues.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company exhibits a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity is strong at 138.28%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 44.20% suggests a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Saturn Oil & Gas shows a substantial 37.9% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.14 suggests strong cash conversion, although the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.13 indicates limited free cash flow relative to earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.03B920.79M624.83M337.19M98.42M7.16M
Gross Profit560.59M577.69M270.83M247.64M56.03M5.28M
EBITDA674.19M405.17M567.87M143.92M-40.84M5.39M
Net Income208.16M54.11M290.62M74.81M-65.06M-7.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.10B2.16B1.34B582.91M221.11M40.31M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments49.25M48.42M26.46M18.74M8.88M613.00K
Total Debt836.54M951.84M458.01M247.19M95.89M30.11M
Total Liabilities1.17B1.36B726.55M444.39M251.41M36.71M
Stockholders Equity929.57M803.97M608.66M138.52M-30.31M3.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow167.47M65.62M153.41M13.21M-9.98M-277.00K
Operating Cash Flow446.41M311.94M283.99M102.31M-1.28M851.00K
Investing Cash Flow-314.94M-749.53M-576.40M-318.24M-87.86M-1.35M
Financing Cash Flow-163.45M459.55M308.62M223.76M90.99M-38.00K

Saturn Oil & Gas Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price2.52
Price Trends
50DMA
2.65
Negative
100DMA
2.49
Positive
200DMA
2.17
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Positive
RSI
43.17
Neutral
STOCH
14.18
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SOIL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.56, below the 50-day MA of 2.65, and above the 200-day MA of 2.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.18 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:SOIL.

Saturn Oil & Gas Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$477.05M4.4712.26%24.36%-55.40%
69
Neutral
C$750.79M4.2598.62%194.52%10204.44%
69
Neutral
C$208.98M7.7710.49%9.28%37.20%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
64
Neutral
C$462.33M19.239.82%42.95%4522.22%
52
Neutral
C$363.21M-28.80%4.34%-3.16%-537.24%
46
Neutral
C$285.96M-89.06%17.26%65.00%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:SOIL
Saturn Oil & Gas
2.52
0.45
21.74%
TSE:FEC
Frontera Energy
5.35
-2.23
-29.39%
TSE:TNZ
Tenaz Energy Corp
26.76
14.08
111.04%
TSE:KEI
Kolibri Global Energy
5.89
1.05
21.69%
TSE:GASX
NG Energy International
1.14
0.23
25.27%
TSE:LGN
Logan Energy Corp
0.88
0.13
17.33%

Saturn Oil & Gas Corporate Events

Saturn Oil & Gas Exceeds Production Guidance in Q3 2025
Nov 7, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. is a Canadian energy company focused on the development of light oil-weighted assets in Saskatchewan and Alberta, known for its strategic acquisition approach and innovative drilling techniques. In its third quarter of 2025, Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. reported production levels that exceeded guidance and analyst expectations, alongside a robust adjusted funds flow despite a challenging commodity price environment. Key highlights from the quarter include a production rate of 41,142 boe/d, surpassing previous estimates, and an adjusted funds flow of $103 million. The company executed an $87 million capital program, focusing on acquisitions with better economic returns, and made significant debt repayments totaling US$16.3 million. Saturn also completed strategic acquisitions, including the SE SK Tuck-in, which added significant production and development potential. Looking ahead, Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. remains committed to its Blueprint strategy, focusing on high-return opportunities and maintaining financial flexibility to support ongoing growth and shareholder value.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Saturn Oil & Gas Exceeds Q3 2025 Production Guidance, Strengthens Strategic Position
Positive
Nov 5, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with production surpassing guidance and analyst expectations. The company executed an $87 million capital program, focusing on acquisitions with better economic returns than drilling, and achieved a 10% production increase from the previous quarter. This performance, alongside strategic acquisitions and efficient cost management, supports Saturn’s long-term sustainability and enhances shareholder value through debt repayment and share buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Buy with a C$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Saturn Oil & Gas to Release Q3 2025 Results and Host Conference Call
Neutral
Oct 22, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. has announced the release date for its Q3 2025 financial results, scheduled for November 5, 2025, after market close. The company will host a conference call and webcast on November 6, 2025, to discuss the results, providing stakeholders with insights into its financial performance and strategic direction. This announcement highlights Saturn’s ongoing commitment to transparency and engagement with investors, analysts, and media, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Buy with a C$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Saturn Oil & Gas Boosts 2025 Production Forecast and Cuts Capital Expenditures
Positive
Sep 8, 2025

Saturn Oil & Gas has announced a corporate update featuring increased 2025 production forecasts and reduced capital expenditures. The company has achieved operational outperformance and strategic acquisitions, leading to a 12% increase in forecasted production and an 18% reduction in capital expenditures. The appointment of Lynn A. Peterson to the board is expected to strengthen governance. These strategic moves are aimed at enhancing the company’s asset base and maintaining financial stability despite fluctuating commodity prices.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SOIL) stock is a Buy with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saturn Oil & Gas stock, see the TSE:SOIL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 10, 2025