Saturn Oil & Gas (TSE:SOIL)
TSX:SOIL
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Saturn Oil & Gas
(TSX:SOIL)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$7.00
▲(39.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/10/26
The score is driven by strong recent financial performance with improving cash flow, supported by a bullish technical trend and a very low P/E valuation. Offsetting factors are cyclicality (revenue decline in 2025 and historical earnings volatility) and still-meaningful leverage for a commodity-sensitive business.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Improved operating and free cash flow in 2025, with operating cash flow covering net income, increases internal funding for drilling and field operations. That reduces reliance on external financing, supports sustainable reinvestment and debt servicing, and bolsters near-term financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Revenue cyclicality
Revenue decline in 2025 after previous growth highlights the company's exposure to commodity cycles. Persistent top-line volatility complicates multi-quarter planning for capex and dividends, and can quickly erode margins and cash generation if prices or volumes weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Improved operating and free cash flow in 2025, with operating cash flow covering net income, increases internal funding for drilling and field operations. That reduces reliance on external financing, supports sustainable reinvestment and debt servicing, and bolsters near-term financial resilience.
Read all positive factors
Saturn Oil & Gas (SOIL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.11B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)348.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.8
Beta (1Y)0.02
Revenue Growth9.29%
EPS Growth352.05%
CountryCA
Employees342
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding180,809,000
10 Day Avg. Volume302,543
30 Day Avg. Volume348,064
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.53
P/FCF Ratio2.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$5.50Price Target Upside9.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$905.60M
Saturn Oil & Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of petroleum and natural gas resource deposits in Canada. It is involved in the exploration and development of light oil assets in the Oxbow area of Southeast Saskatche...
How the Company Makes Money
Saturn Oil & Gas primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—mainly crude oil and also natural gas—into market. Revenue is generated based on the volume of hydrocarbons produced from its wells and the realized prices received (whic...
Saturn Oil & Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong production numbers, cost efficiency, and strategic acquisitions that enhanced production capacity and shareholder value. Despite a challenging price environment and increased net debt, the company demonstrated resilience and technological advancements in drilling, supporting future growth.Positive Updates
Production and Cost Efficiency
Q3 production averaged over 41,100 barrels a day, exceeding previous guidance and analyst consensus. BOE operating cost in Q3 came in at $19.24, below the $20 per BOE annual target.
Negative Updates
Challenging Price Environment
WTI prices fell 14% compared to the 2024 period, impacting revenue potential.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production and Cost Efficiency
Q3 production averaged over 41,100 barrels a day, exceeding previous guidance and analyst consensus. BOE operating cost in Q3 came in at $19.24, below the $20 per BOE annual target.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During Saturn's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics reflecting their strong performance and strategic pivot in response to market conditions. Saturn's Q3 production averaged over 41,100 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, exceeding both previous guidance and analyst consensus. The company also reported a BOE operating cost of $19.24, better than the annual target of $20 per BOE. Saturn made a strategic decision to reduce its original $300 million development capital budget by 18% to approximately $255 million, focusing instead on opportunistic tuck-in acquisitions. This approach led to acquisitions in Southeast Saskatchewan and Central Alberta, adding a combined 5,400 BOE per day of production at cost-effective rates. The company aims to exit the year with a production range of 43,000 to 44,000 BOE per day. Financially, Saturn generated $235 million in revenue and $103 million in adjusted funds flow, a 17% increase per share from the previous year. With a net debt of $783 million, Saturn maintains strong liquidity, supported by a cash reserve and credit facilities, and plans to release its 2026 budget in mid-December.Saturn Oil & Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 881.65M | 920.79M | 624.83M | 337.19M | 98.42M |
| Gross Profit | 232.93M | 577.69M | 270.83M | 247.64M | 56.03M |
| EBITDA | 517.85M | 405.17M | 567.87M | 143.92M | -40.84M |
| Net Income | 167.57M | 54.11M | 290.62M | 74.81M | -65.06M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.19B | 2.16B | 1.34B | 582.91M | 221.11M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 48.42M | 26.46M | 18.74M | 8.88M |
| Total Debt | 827.17M | 951.84M | 458.01M | 247.19M | 95.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.24B | 1.36B | 726.55M | 444.39M | 251.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 946.59M | 803.97M | 608.66M | 138.52M | -30.31M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 216.16M | 65.62M | 153.41M | 13.21M | -9.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 457.40M | 311.94M | 283.99M | 102.31M | -1.28M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -374.39M | -749.53M | -576.40M | -318.24M | -87.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -131.43M | 459.55M | 308.62M | 223.76M | 90.99M |
Saturn Oil & Gas Technical Analysis
Neutral
5.03
Price Trends
4.44
Positive
3.56
Positive
3.04
Positive
Market Momentum
0.25
Positive
46.13
Neutral
20.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SOIL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.70, above the 50-day MA of 4.44, and above the 200-day MA of 3.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:SOIL.
Saturn Oil & Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$1.11B | 2.80 | 12.43% | ― | 9.29% | 352.05% | |
73 Outperform | C$935.04M | 17.02 | 5.47% | 7.59% | -11.85% | ― | |
72 Outperform | C$487.77M | 5.70 | 8.41% | 21.85% | -14.55% | -58.87% | |
67 Neutral | C$1.24B | 16.60 | 2.52% | ― | -26.04% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
56 Neutral | C$1.01B | -0.30 | -88.55% | 4.07% | -7.38% | -4798.58% | |
47 Neutral | C$440.20M | -38.65 | -2.22% | 12.70% | 88.28% | -159.05% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:SOIL
Saturn Oil & Gas
6.16
4.56
285.00%
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Saturn Oil & Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Saturn Oil & Gas Posts Record 2025 Cash Flow as Production Beats Guidance and Debt Falls
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Saturn Oil Gas reported strong 2025 results, with fourth-quarter production averaging 43,657 boe/d, exceeding guidance and lifting full-year output to 41,728 boe/d, a 46% increase in production per debt-adjusted share versus 2024. The company gen...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Saturn Oil & Gas Sets March Dates for Q4 and 2025 Results and Investor Call
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Saturn Oil Gas Inc. will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, together with its year-end 2025 independent reserves evaluation, after market close on March 11, 2026. The company will host a conference call and webcast w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.