InPlay Oil Corp. (IPO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$478.50M
• Dividend Yield: 12.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 64.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.77
• Revenue Growth: 53.79%
• EPS Growth: -126.63%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 25
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 27,982,193
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 74,042
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 64,679
• PEG Ratio: -1.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 119.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$19.84
• Price Target Upside: 50.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.09
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$314.92M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: C$15.50 ▲(17.25% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/30/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/30/25

The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance (TTM net loss, materially higher leverage, and deeply negative free cash flow) despite strong revenue recovery and solid operating cash flow. Technical indicators point to weak momentum with an oversold tone, while valuation is supported by a very high dividend yield but tempered by negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Revenue recovery and strong margins

A pronounced revenue rebound combined with high gross and EBITDA margins signals that InPlay's asset base continues to produce cash-generative volumes and retain value after operating costs. This durable operating profitability supports funding for drilling and maintenance over the next several quarters.

Healthy operating cash flow

Sustained operating cash flow (~$75.5M TTM) demonstrates good cash conversion from operations even with an accounting loss. Reliable OCF provides near-term liquidity to support ongoing development, pay operating costs, and partially fund capital programs without immediate financing.

Positive equity and sizable asset base

A positive equity base and larger asset footprint give InPlay structural balance-sheet resilience. Asset-backed resources and infrastructure in Alberta underpin operational capacity and provide collateral flexibility for funding or asset-light strategies if needed over a multi-quarter horizon.

Negative Factors

TTM net loss and thin margins

A trailing-twelve-month net loss and razor-thin EBIT margin indicate profitability stress beyond operating margins. Persistent negative net income erodes retained earnings and reduces internally generated capital available for reinvestment, increasing reliance on external funding over the medium term.

Materially higher leverage

A notable rise in leverage elevates refinancing and interest-rate risk, constraining financial flexibility. With debt materially higher, adverse commodity or cash-flow swings could force spending cuts, asset sales, or higher borrowing costs, stressing capital plans across several quarters.

Deeply negative free cash flow

Very negative free cash flow signals that capital spending and/or working-capital needs outpace operating cash generation. Sustained negative FCF increases dependence on external financing or asset monetizations, raising execution and liquidity risk for ongoing development programs.

InPlay Oil Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

InPlay Oil Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas properties in Canada. The company produces and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It primarily holds interests in the Cardium assets located in West Central Alberta that focus on the Pembina and Willesden Green pools. The company also holds interest in the Belly River light oil property; and the Duvernay light oil play. InPlay Oil Corp. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

InPlay Oil Corp. generates revenue through the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, which are extracted from its operated wells in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. InPlay Oil Corp. sells its production to various marketers and oil and gas purchasers at prevailing market prices. The company may also enter into hedging contracts to manage commodity price risks, thereby stabilizing cash flows. Additionally, strategic partnerships and joint ventures help InPlay Oil Corp. optimize its operations and reduce costs, contributing to its overall profitability.

InPlay Oil Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue rebounded strongly (+25.163%) with solid gross (~52.6%) and EBITDA (~35.9%) margins, and operating cash flow is healthy (~$75.5M). However, TTM net income is negative (-$8.7M), leverage has risen materially (debt-to-equity ~0.61), and free cash flow is deeply negative (~-$177.1M), which increases funding and balance-sheet risk if conditions persist.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rebounded strongly (+25.163%) with a solid gross margin (~52.6%) and healthy EBITDA margin (~35.9%), showing the asset base can still generate meaningful operating profitability. However, profitability has deteriorated sharply versus prior years: TTM net income is negative (-$8.7M; net margin ~-3.5%) and EBIT margin is thin (~1.8%), indicating higher costs/expenses and/or weaker realized pricing compared with 2022–2024 when the company was profitable with stronger margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has risen materially in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) period: debt-to-equity increased to ~0.61 (from ~0.23 in 2024), and total debt expanded to ~$227.5M alongside a much larger asset base. Equity remains positive (~$372.8M), but return on equity is negative in TTM (about -2.6%), reflecting the recent earnings loss and making the higher leverage profile a key balance-sheet risk if profitability remains pressured.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) at ~$75.5M and is slightly above net income (cash flow relative to net income ~1.06), suggesting decent cash conversion despite the accounting loss. The main weakness is sharply negative free cash flow (about -$177.1M) and negative free cash flow growth, implying heavy capital spending and/or working-capital pressure that could increase reliance on funding or balance-sheet capacity if sustained.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	249.96M	153.71M	156.85M	238.59M	113.85M	41.93M
Gross Profit	131.40M	85.54M	104.14M	156.91M	74.82M	18.13M
EBITDA	89.62M	70.43M	90.31M	135.36M	125.29M	-56.61M
Net Income	-8.66M	9.47M	32.70M	83.90M	115.07M	-112.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.13B	476.25M	472.96M	430.91M	406.48M	211.03M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	0.00	0.00	-320.00K	-578.00K	-553.00K
Total Debt	227.47M	66.99M	51.29M	29.53M	79.70M	64.39M
Total Liabilities	759.47M	185.53M	178.60M	157.85M	217.12M	165.31M
Stockholders Equity	372.79M	290.73M	294.35M	273.06M	189.36M	45.72M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-177.06M	7.81M	1.22M	45.29M	4.98M	-16.27M
Operating Cash Flow	75.50M	70.88M	86.01M	122.89M	38.41M	8.47M
Investing Cash Flow	-245.88M	-69.66M	-87.93M	-70.36M	-63.93M	-18.07M
Financing Cash Flow	170.39M	-1.22M	1.92M	-52.53M	25.52M	9.60M

InPlay Oil Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IPO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.52, below the 50-day MA of 14.09, and above the 200-day MA of 11.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:IPO.

InPlay Oil Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ORC.B	76 Outperform	C$93.73M	0.82	18.65%	2.08%	10.08%	322.40%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
PRQ	63 Neutral	C$269.84M	-20.08	0.20%	6.19%	-8.58%	-98.92%
TAL	63 Neutral	C$438.23M	27.33	14.69%	21.85%	-2.90%	-31.97%
JOY	58 Neutral	C$301.31M	12.28	5.81%	―	-1.47%	267.04%
IPO	51 Neutral	C$478.50M	-18.20	-2.61%	12.70%	53.79%	-126.63%
PNE	49 Neutral	C$243.98M	-9.41	-43.41%	3.16%	-6.56%	-42.28%