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Pine Cliff Energy (TSE:PNE)
TSX:PNE
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Pine Cliff Energy (PNE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:PNE

Pine Cliff Energy

(TSX:PNE)

Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
Pine Cliff Energy's overall score reflects financial and operational challenges, including declining profitability and increased leverage. Despite these issues, positive cash flows and strategic growth plans provide some upside potential. Technical indicators suggest the stock is currently oversold, and while valuation metrics are mixed, the high dividend yield could be appealing. The earnings call highlights cautious optimism, but market uncertainties remain significant.

Pine Cliff Energy (PNE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Pine Cliff Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPine Cliff Energy Ltd. (PNE) is a Canadian natural resource company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids. The company operates within the energy sector with a focus on acquiring and managing high-quality, long-life natural gas assets concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Pine Cliff Energy is committed to creating value through sustainable and efficient resource management while maintaining strong environmental and safety standards.
How the Company Makes MoneyPine Cliff Energy makes money through the production and sale of natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the extraction and sale of these resources from its operated and non-operated properties. Key revenue streams include the sale of produced natural gas, which constitutes a significant portion of its income, followed by revenues from oil and natural gas liquids. Pine Cliff Energy's earnings are influenced by factors such as commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. The company may also engage in strategic acquisitions or divestitures to optimize its portfolio and enhance cash flow. While Pine Cliff Energy may have partnerships or joint ventures to facilitate operations, specific details on such collaborations are not provided.

Pine Cliff Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -11.34%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presents a mix of optimism and challenges. While there are significant highlights such as improved storage position, hedging success, and upcoming LNG demand, the company faces challenges with weak gas prices impacting cash flow and elevated debt levels. The intent to resume drilling and potential LNG demand growth are positive signs for the future.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved Storage Position
Natural gas storage is elevated from 5-year averages but below last year's levels, suggesting a better position as LNG ramps up.
Drilling Program Resumption
Plan to resume drilling in Q4 2025, with extensive drilling inventory and flexibility in capital allocation.
Successful Hedging Strategy
Realized a natural gas price of $2.48/Mcf, a 48% premium to the AECO daily 5A price of $1.68. Hedged 54% of gas production and 43% of crude oil production for 2025.
Potential LNG Demand Growth
Expecting up to 6.5 bcf/day of new LNG demand from Canada by the end of the decade, with potential to become the fourth largest LNG exporter.
High IRR on Wells
Drilling program expected to have over 100% IRRs with a payback period of around 1 year.
Negative Updates
Weak Gas Prices Impacting Cash Flow
Weaker gas prices in Q2 and Q3 2025 have led to lower cash flow than initially budgeted.
Elevated Debt Levels
Current debt level is around 1.5x debt to cash flow, aiming to reduce it to under 1x.
Dividend Reduction
Dividend was reduced in March to free up cash flow for the drilling program.
Company Guidance
During the Pine Cliff Energy second quarter webcast, President and CEO Phil Hodge discussed the company's strategic outlook amidst challenging market conditions. He highlighted that natural gas storage levels have risen above five-year averages, though they remain below last year's levels, a factor not fully recognized by the market. As Pine Cliff plans to resume its drilling program in the fourth quarter, the company is focused on capital allocation, reducing its debt to below 1x debt to cash flow from the current 1.5x, and maintaining a diversified drilling inventory. Hodge noted that Pine Cliff's hedging strategy has been effective, with realized natural gas prices at $2.48/Mcf, a 48% premium to the AECO daily 5A price, and the company has hedged 54% of its gas production for the year at $2.82/Mcf. Additionally, Pine Cliff is preparing for growth in LNG demand, with potential significant increases in Canadian LNG exports by the end of the decade. The company also anticipates a narrowing of the AECO-NYMEX differential and is considering future dividend increases contingent on improved free cash flow.

Pine Cliff Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Pine Cliff Energy is facing financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability, as well as increased leverage and reduced equity positions. However, their positive operating and free cash flows provide some stability, indicating the company's capability to generate cash to support operations.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Pine Cliff Energy has shown fluctuating revenue with a recent decline from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin for 2023 was approximately 7.5%, a significant drop from previous years. Net income turned negative in 2024, leading to a negative net profit margin, indicating challenges in profitability. There is also a lack of EBIT and a decrease in EBITDA margin, reflecting operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased in recent years, with a ratio of approximately 0.89 in 2024, indicating higher leverage. Stockholders' equity has decreased significantly, affecting the equity ratio, which stood at about 14.2% in 2024. The return on equity (ROE) was negative in 2024 due to negative net income, pointing to inefficiencies in using equity for profit generation.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Despite challenges in net income, Pine Cliff Energy generated positive operating cash flow in 2024. The free cash flow was also positive and improved significantly from the previous year, indicating better cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive due to the positive free cash flow, showcasing operational cash generation capability despite net losses.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue190.73M195.63M176.26M309.99M167.72M107.32M
Gross Profit93.34M126.53M16.11M230.15M109.71M55.64M
EBITDA40.44M35.24M54.12M175.29M82.18M5.27M
Net Income-19.32M-21.45M9.12M108.94M81.42M-55.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets373.49M381.25M477.07M375.05M379.00M288.90M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments0.000.00208.00K54.60M6.87M7.88M
Total Debt47.36M48.47M62.14M3.30M45.57M63.94M
Total Liabilities326.43M326.93M377.14M241.32M333.58M326.22M
Stockholders Equity47.06M54.32M99.93M133.73M45.42M-37.32M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow22.30M21.27M-63.66M121.44M28.02M1.31M
Operating Cash Flow25.83M23.80M66.63M150.45M49.48M8.79M
Investing Cash Flow6.81M6.77M-133.20M-36.74M-30.77M-10.02M
Financing Cash Flow-32.65M-30.56M12.15M-66.16M-19.71M445.00K

Pine Cliff Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.61
Price Trends
50DMA
0.66
Negative
100DMA
0.62
Negative
200DMA
0.73
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Positive
RSI
35.28
Neutral
STOCH
7.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PNE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.68, below the 50-day MA of 0.66, and below the 200-day MA of 0.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:PNE.

Pine Cliff Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
C$183.67M5.8942.32%9.74%6.65%9.78%
74
Outperform
C$214.04M7.0125.88%9.01%1.58%71.76%
65
Neutral
$14.76B7.272.76%5.59%4.70%-62.00%
61
Neutral
C$188.91M21.672.78%8.05%-16.34%-67.99%
61
Neutral
C$310.51M33.43-1.09%13.92%16.69%-108.64%
49
Neutral
$226.04M-38.21%6.55%-5.86%-467.27%
36
Underperform
C$230.90M-46.55%-156.86%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:PNE
Pine Cliff Energy
0.61
-0.30
-33.19%
TSE:ALV
Alvopetro Energy
5.88
1.35
29.80%
TSE:SEI
Sintana Energy
0.57
-0.54
-48.65%
TSE:IPO
InPlay Oil Corp.
10.99
0.08
0.73%
TSE:PRQ
Petrus Resources
1.49
0.27
22.13%
TSE:HME
Hemisphere Energy
1.92
0.35
22.29%

Pine Cliff Energy Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Pine Cliff Energy Announces 2025 Capex Plan and Dividend Adjustment
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025

Pine Cliff Energy Ltd. has announced a 2025 capital spending program of approximately $23.5 million, with $12.5 million allocated to strategic drilling in Central Alberta and the remainder for facilities maintenance and asset retirement obligations. The company has shifted its capital allocation strategy, reducing its annual dividend from $0.06 to $0.015 per share, as it resumes drilling activities in response to improved economic conditions in the Canadian gas market.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Pine Cliff Energy Reports 2024 Results with Increased Reserves and Dividends
Neutral
Mar 6, 2025

Pine Cliff Energy Ltd. announced its 2024 annual results, highlighting an increase in year-end reserves and a dividend declaration. Despite a decrease in adjusted funds flow and a net loss for the year, the company saw a significant increase in production and proceeds from asset dispositions. The announcement reflects Pine Cliff’s strategic focus on optimizing its operations and maintaining shareholder value through dividends, despite the financial challenges faced in 2024.

DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Pine Cliff Energy Declares February 2025 Monthly Dividend and Announces Webcast
Neutral
Feb 5, 2025

Pine Cliff Energy Ltd. has announced a regular monthly dividend of $0.005 per common share, payable on February 28, 2025, to shareholders recorded by February 14, 2025. The dividends are classified as non-eligible for Canadian tax purposes, indicating potential tax implications for shareholders. The company will also hold a webcast on March 6, 2025, to discuss its 2024 year-end results, providing stakeholders with insights into its financial performance and future outlook.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 21, 2025