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Alvopetro Energy Ltd (TSE:ALV)
:ALV

Alvopetro Energy (ALV) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:ALV

Alvopetro Energy

(ALV)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$7.00
▲(10.06% Upside)
Alvopetro Energy's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the primary drivers of its score. The company's robust profitability, low leverage, and high dividend yield make it a compelling investment in the oil and gas sector. Technical indicators suggest moderate momentum, supporting the overall positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Profitability
High profitability margins indicate efficient operations and cost management, supporting long-term financial health and shareholder value.
Balance Sheet Health
Low leverage enhances financial stability and flexibility, allowing the company to invest in growth opportunities without excessive risk.
Cash Flow Generation
Strong operating cash flow supports ongoing operations and potential reinvestment, crucial for sustaining growth and financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Decline
A decline in free cash flow growth could impact the company's ability to fund new projects or return capital to shareholders if it persists.
Modest Revenue Growth
Limited revenue growth may indicate challenges in market expansion or product adoption, potentially affecting long-term competitive positioning.
Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio
A moderate free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in converting earnings into cash, which is vital for financial flexibility.

Alvopetro Energy (ALV) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Alvopetro Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlvopetro Energy Ltd. is a Canadian-based oil and gas exploration and production company primarily focused on the development of hydrocarbons in Brazil. The company operates in the energy sector, specializing in the exploration, production, and sale of oil and natural gas. Alvopetro is committed to sustainable energy practices and aims to create value for its shareholders through efficient resource management and advanced technology in hydrocarbon extraction.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlvopetro Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of oil and natural gas. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil and natural gas from its operational fields in Brazil. Alvopetro's financial performance is influenced by global oil and gas prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and reduce exploration risks, which can also contribute to its revenue. Factors such as market demand, regulatory environment, and technological advancements in extraction methodologies play a significant role in shaping Alvopetro's earnings.

Alvopetro Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 18, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in production, reserve increases, and strategic expansion into new markets, demonstrating a positive outlook for 2025. While there were some financial challenges in Q4 2024, such as decreased operating netback and foreign exchange losses, the overall sentiment remains optimistic due to operational achievements and strategic initiatives.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Production Capacity
Alvopetro's January and February production averaged 2,375 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 37% from Q4 2024 production.
Dividend Increase
Announced an increase in the dividend for Q1 2025 to US$0.10 per share, reflecting a 12% yield at current share prices.
Significant Reserve Growth
Proved reserves increased by 65% and proved + probable reserves increased by 5% year-over-year.
Strong Operating Netback Margin
Despite a slight decrease, the operating netback remained high at 86%.
Debt-Free Status
Maintained a strong balance sheet with $13.2 million in working capital and no debt since September 2022.
Strategic Expansion into Canada
Entered the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, targeting Mannville heavy oil fairway with promising new technologies.
Successful Contract Revision
Revised gas sales agreement with Bahiagás, increasing firm sales by 33% and removing previous contractual ceiling provisions.
Negative Updates
Decreased Q4 Operating Netback
Operating netback decreased by $4.10 from the previous quarter, primarily due to lower sales volumes and prices.
Foreign Exchange Losses
Experienced a $2 million foreign exchange loss in Q4 2024, a significant swing from a $600,000 gain in Q3.
Reduced Natural Gas Sales Price
Natural gas sales price decreased by about 4% from the previous quarter.
Sales Volume Reduction
Q4 2024 saw a 17% reduction in sales volumes compared to Q3.
Company Guidance
In the Q4 2024 results webcast, Alvopetro provided detailed guidance for 2025, highlighting several key metrics. The company has increased its firm natural gas supply to Bahiagás by 33%, leading to an average production of 2,375 barrels of oil equivalent per day in January and February, up 37% from Q4 2024. The operating netback was reported at $55.09, with a margin of 86%, despite a 4% reduction in realized sales price and a 17% reduction in volumes. Alvopetro announced a dividend increase to US$0.10 per share for Q1 2025, reflecting higher sales volumes. The year-end reserve report showed a 65% increase in 1P reserves, totaling 4.5 million BOE, and a 5% increase in 2P reserves, totaling 9.1 million BOE. The company's balance sheet remains strong, with $13.2 million in working capital and no debt. Alvopetro has strategically entered the Canadian market, drilling two wells in the Mannville heavy oil fairway, aiming to capitalize on multi-zone reservoirs. The company projects a strong 2025 with a focus on maintaining a balanced capital allocation model, emphasizing both organic growth and stakeholder returns.

Alvopetro Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alvopetro Energy demonstrates strong financial performance with high profitability and a stable balance sheet. The company maintains robust profit margins and a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating financial stability. However, challenges in cash flow management, particularly in free cash flow growth, slightly temper the overall financial outlook.
Income Statement
Alvopetro Energy shows strong profitability with a consistent increase in net profit margins, reaching 37.29% in TTM. The revenue growth rate of 6.99% in TTM indicates a positive trajectory, although it has fluctuated in previous years. Gross profit margins remain robust, though slightly decreased from 2023. Overall, the company demonstrates solid financial health with strong EBIT and EBITDA margins.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 in TTM, indicating prudent leverage management. Return on equity is healthy at 25.76%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure. However, the slight increase in debt over the years warrants monitoring.
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a decrease in free cash flow growth by 19% in TTM, which is a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.31 indicates efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, though it has declined, suggesting room for improvement in cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue52.41M45.52M58.03M63.51M34.98M11.31M
Gross Profit32.70M32.46M53.83M48.47M20.13M7.16M
EBITDA35.76M28.11M41.96M46.28M22.16M5.64M
Net Income21.50M16.30M28.52M31.73M5.59M5.71M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets120.25M101.02M109.83M98.43M73.63M80.39M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments16.81M21.70M18.33M19.78M11.47M5.16M
Total Debt10.11M7.86M8.68M9.43M14.52M23.73M
Total Liabilities32.94M21.66M21.62M22.02M22.61M27.28M
Stockholders Equity134.37M79.36M88.21M76.41M51.02M53.11M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.69M19.60M20.25M22.74M19.78M-356.00K
Operating Cash Flow43.19M34.90M47.70M47.53M24.29M3.06M
Investing Cash Flow-36.91M-11.69M-27.75M-22.77M-3.98M-3.23M
Financing Cash Flow-18.82M-17.99M-21.74M-16.55M-13.74M4.23M

Alvopetro Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.36
Price Trends
50DMA
6.29
Positive
100DMA
6.34
Positive
200DMA
5.91
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.11
Positive
RSI
50.31
Neutral
STOCH
20.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ALV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.44, above the 50-day MA of 6.29, and above the 200-day MA of 5.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ALV.

Alvopetro Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
C$242.43M8.9021.90%8.44%2.20%38.33%
67
Neutral
C$225.58M4.3817.46%74.76%7.44%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
58
Neutral
C$214.07M10.735.81%-1.47%267.04%
57
Neutral
C$336.49M-13.14-10.23%
54
Neutral
C$255.10M-63.89-6.71%-5.88%
40
Underperform
C$284.71M-6.96-79.56%5.13%61.58%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ALV
Alvopetro Energy
6.45
1.65
34.32%
TSE:RECO
Reconnaissance Energy Africa
0.97
-0.10
-9.35%
TSE:GASX
NG Energy International
1.10
0.04
4.29%
TSE:FO
Falcon Oil & Gas
0.23
0.11
84.00%
TSE:JOY
Journey Energy
3.19
1.07
50.47%
TSE:RBY
Rubellite Energy Inc
2.41
0.20
9.05%

Alvopetro Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Alvopetro Energy Declares Increased Quarterly Dividend Amid Production Growth
Positive
Dec 16, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. has announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.12 per share, comprising a base dividend and a special dividend, reflecting a 20% increase in their total quarterly dividend. This decision is driven by significant production growth from their Murucututu project in Brazil, highlighting the company’s commitment to a balanced capital allocation strategy and stakeholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Buy with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alvopetro Energy Reports Strong November Sales Volumes, Exceeds Contracted Natural Gas Deliveries
Positive
Dec 8, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. reported November 2025 sales volumes of 2,851 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with the majority of sales coming from its operations in Brazil. The company experienced strong natural gas deliveries, exceeding contracted volumes despite planned facility shutdowns. This performance underscores Alvopetro’s strategic focus on optimizing its natural gas assets in Brazil and balancing capital investments between Brazil and Canada, which could enhance its market positioning and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Buy with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Alvopetro Secures $20 Million Credit Facility to Boost Growth
Positive
Dec 1, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. announced a $20 million credit facility with Itaú BBA International, aimed at enhancing its financial flexibility to accelerate capital programs in Brazil and Canada. This move is expected to support Alvopetro’s growth strategy by funding high-return projects without impacting its current stakeholder return and capital allocation model.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Buy with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alvopetro Energy Achieves Record Sales in October 2025
Positive
Nov 5, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. reported record sales volumes for October 2025, with a 34% increase in Brazilian sales to 2,766 boepd and an overall company average of 2,923 boepd. This growth is attributed to successful operations in Brazil, particularly the Murucututu project, and strategic partnerships in Canada. The company’s financial results for Q3 2025 reflect robust operational performance, despite a decrease in natural gas prices due to lower Henry Hub prices. Alvopetro’s strategic focus on disciplined capital allocation and high-return growth opportunities positions it strongly in the energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Buy with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Alvopetro Energy Reports September Sales and Strategic Expansion
Positive
Oct 7, 2025

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. reported September 2025 sales volumes of 2,231 boepd, with significant contributions from its Murucututu field in Brazil. The company has adjusted its natural gas pricing and entered into a new agreement to expand its Mannville Stack opportunities in Western Saskatchewan. Additionally, Alvopetro is disposing of its non-core Bom Lugar and Mãe da Lua oil fields in Brazil, which is expected to streamline its operations and focus on more strategic assets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Buy with a C$6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 19, 2025