Firm Cap Mortgage Invest (FC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$431.31M
• Dividend Yield: 8.38%
• Average Volume (3M): 42.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: -6.64%
• EPS Growth: 4.43%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 36,738,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 51,687
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 42,308
• PEG Ratio: -1.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$12.50
• Price Target Upside: 5.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$58.32M

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: C$13.00 ▲(10.08% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/15/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/15/26

The score is driven primarily by above-average financial performance (strong profitability and improving leverage, tempered by cash-flow variability) and an attractive valuation (moderate P/E with a high dividend yield). These positives are partially offset by weak technicals, with bearish momentum and the price trading below key moving averages despite oversold conditions.

Positive Factors

Consistent high profitability

Firm Cap demonstrates persistently strong net margins and steady earnings across reporting periods, creating a durable earnings base. High profitability supports internal capital generation for dividends, reserves and reinvestment, improving resilience through mortgage cycles and funding stresses.

Improving leverage and balance-sheet quality

Leverage has meaningfully improved with falling debt-to-equity and steady equity growth, strengthening financial flexibility. A stronger balance sheet reduces refinancing risk, increases capacity to absorb credit losses, and supports long-term operations in a funding-sensitive mortgage business.

Generally solid cash generation

Operating and free cash flow have been positive in most years and rebounded recently, underpinning the company’s ability to fund distributions and deleverage. Reliable cash generation, when sustained, provides flexibility for capital allocation and buffers against episodic market stress.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash flow

A sharply negative cash flow year increases the risk that the firm may need external funding or cut distributions in downturns. Persistent cash volatility complicates planning, raises refinancing reliance, and weakens the protective value of its otherwise strong earnings profile.

Revenue and growth inconsistency

Non-linear top-line performance and intermittent revenue declines undermine predictability of long-term growth. This uneven revenue trend complicates capital allocation and may pressure margins or cash flow during weaker periods, limiting visibility on sustained expansion.

Exposure to funding, credit and rate cycles

As a mortgage-focused, leveraged lender, the company remains structurally exposed to interest-rate moves, funding markets and credit cycles. Such sensitivity can compress margins, increase credit losses, or force liquidity actions during stress, making returns more cyclical and capital needs variable.

Firm Cap Mortgage Invest Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corporation, through its mortgage banker, Firm Capital Corporation, provides residential and commercial short-term bridge, and conventional real estate finance in Canada. It engages in originating, funding, purchasing, and servicing mortgage investments. The company also offers mortgage services, such as real estate financing, real estate investment financing, capital market, and loan servicing and advisory services; and a line of lending programs, including construction and development lending, investment property financing, short term lending, bridge finance, mezzanine and equity investments, capital market facilities, residential and non-conventional house lending, and condominium capital improvement loans, as well as special situation loans. In addition, it provides related investment services. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Firm Cap Mortgage Invest Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and generally stable earnings support a solid financial profile, and leverage has been improving with steady equity growth. The main drag is variability in revenue and especially cash flow (including a sharply negative year), which increases sensitivity to market conditions.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly over the period (notably the latest year’s sharp growth), while profitability remains very high with consistently strong net margins. Earnings are also fairly stable across years, with only modest variation. The main weakness is some year-to-year revenue volatility (including a decline earlier in the period and a slight dip in 2024), which suggests growth is not perfectly linear.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate and improving: debt relative to equity has trended down meaningfully in the latest year, and equity has steadily grown. Returns on equity are consistently positive and relatively steady, supporting balance-sheet quality. The key watch-out is that this is still a leveraged mortgage-focused business model, so balance-sheet performance can be sensitive to funding conditions and credit/rate cycles even with improved leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally solid, with strong positive operating and free cash flow in most years and a particularly strong rebound in the latest year. However, cash flow was sharply negative in 2024, creating a notable volatility signal for cash conversion and funding needs in weaker periods. Overall, cash flow strength is good but less consistent than earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Mar 2025	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	66.72M	68.63M	66.22M	58.02M	45.30M
Gross Profit	62.01M	50.82M	40.81M	40.14M	35.36M
EBITDA	49.91M	58.66M	34.16M	32.23M	29.99M
Net Income	37.47M	35.23M	34.16M	32.23M	29.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	594.78M	631.22M	589.61M	656.18M	640.28M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.26M	0.00	9.37M	0.00	0.00
Total Debt	160.85M	199.90M	182.80M	251.24M	252.36M
Total Liabilities	169.66M	207.84M	190.42M	257.13M	257.61M
Stockholders Equity	425.12M	423.39M	399.19M	399.05M	382.67M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	47.26M	-13.76M	63.47M	51.86M	40.95M
Operating Cash Flow	47.26M	-13.76M	63.47M	51.86M	40.95M
Investing Cash Flow	42.67M	0.00	62.79M	-18.80M	-83.19M
Financing Cash Flow	-63.98M	-7.30M	-88.26M	-27.75M	40.35M

Firm Cap Mortgage Invest Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 11.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.08, below the 50-day MA of 12.03, and above the 200-day MA of 11.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.84 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:FC.

Firm Cap Mortgage Invest Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AI	71 Outperform	C$554.63M	11.42	9.36%	7.95%	-13.69%	-1.60%
FC	70 Outperform	C$431.31M	11.49	8.81%	8.38%	-6.64%	4.43%
MKP	69 Neutral	C$919.63M	11.86	11.93%	7.33%	7.74%	-31.96%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
TF	56 Neutral	C$556.93M	16.44	5.09%	10.00%	-9.00%	-35.22%
FSZ	54 Neutral	C$562.97M	17.05	14.44%	8.78%	-0.88%	-52.30%
ECN	53 Neutral	C$867.74M	21.77	10.01%	1.32%	27.37%	―

Firm Cap Mortgage Invest Corporate Events

Firm Capital Posts Higher 2025 Earnings, Trims Portfolio but Maintains Monthly Dividend

Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corporation reported a 4.7% decline in fourth-quarter 2025 net income to $8.7 million, though full-year net income rose 6.4% to $37.5 million, with annual earnings per share edging up to $1.02. The mortgage investment portfolio shrank 6.5% to $610.9 million as new fundings slowed and repayments increased, while the allowance for expected credit losses and fair value adjustments rose to $36.8 million, reflecting higher estimated shortfalls and a larger collective allowance.

The company’s portfolio remains heavily concentrated in conventional first mortgages, which now make up 95.2% of assets, with most loans maturing by the end of 2026 and an average interest rate of 9.50%. The board declared monthly cash dividends of $0.078 per share for April, May and June 2026 and highlighted its dividend reinvestment and share purchase plans, underscoring a continued focus on steady income distributions despite a smaller portfolio and elevated credit loss provisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FC) stock is a Buy with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firm Cap Mortgage Invest stock, see the TSE:FC Stock Forecast page.

Firm Capital Confirms Special Year-End Dividend and Sets 2026 Payouts

Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corporation has confirmed a special year-end dividend of $0.084 per common share, bringing the total December 2025 distribution to $0.162 per share, payable on January 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 31, 2025. The special payout reflects that 2025 income exceeded regular dividends and ensures full distribution of taxable income, resulting in total 2025 dividends of $1.02 per share, slightly above the prior year; the board has also declared monthly cash dividends of $0.078 per common share for the first quarter of 2026, underscoring the company’s continued focus on providing stable income to shareholders while cautioning that the special dividend should not be viewed as a signal of future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FC) stock is a Hold with a C$13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firm Cap Mortgage Invest stock, see the TSE:FC Stock Forecast page.

Firm Capital Announces Special Dividend and Future Payouts

Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corporation announced a special year-end cash dividend of $0.084 per share, bringing the total dividends for 2025 to $1.02 per share. Additionally, the company declared dividends for December 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, aiming to provide stable returns to shareholders. This announcement highlights the company’s strong financial performance and commitment to delivering consistent dividends, which may positively impact its market positioning and shareholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FC) stock is a Buy with a C$13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Firm Cap Mortgage Invest stock, see the TSE:FC Stock Forecast page.