Atrium Mortgage Invest (TSE:AI)
TSX:AI
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Atrium Mortgage Invest
(TSX:AI)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$12.50
â–²(2.97% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is primarily constrained by weakened cash-flow conversion and higher leverage despite strong reported profitability. Valuation is supportive (moderate P/E and high yield), and technicals indicate stable-to-mildly positive momentum. Earnings-call commentary is constructive on funding costs, liquidity, and expected impaired-loan recovery, but elevated Stage 3 loans and macro/provisioning uncertainty keep the overall rating in the middle range.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability and ROE
Atrium’s income statement shows durable profitability with net income around $49M and ROE near 9–11%. Strong margins provide recurring earnings power that supports the dividend, underwriting capacity and internal capital cushions, helping sustain operations through moderate cycles.
Negative Factors
Weak cash flow conversion
TTM cash generation has deteriorated sharply, leaving cash flow coverage far below reported earnings. Low and volatile cash conversion constrains internal funding for dividends, loan originations and loss absorption, increasing reliance on external financing over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability and ROE
Atrium’s income statement shows durable profitability with net income around $49M and ROE near 9–11%. Strong margins provide recurring earnings power that supports the dividend, underwriting capacity and internal capital cushions, helping sustain operations through moderate cycles.
Read all positive factors
Atrium Mortgage Invest (AI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$561.83M
Dividend Yield7.95%
Average Volume (3M)97.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth-11.74%
EPS Growth-1.31%
CountryCA
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.03
Shares Outstanding48,019,990
10 Day Avg. Volume100,490
30 Day Avg. Volume97,343
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.97
Price to Book (P/B)1.05
Price to Sales (P/S)6.47
P/FCF Ratio9.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$13.21Price Target Upside8.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$85.02M
Atrium Mortgage Invest Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation, a non-bank lender, provides financing solutions to the real estate communities in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia. It offers various types of mortgage loans for residential, multi-residential, and com...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Atrium Mortgage Invest Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive outcome driven by modest annual earnings growth (net income +2.5% YoY, EPS $1.03), portfolio growth (+3.4% YoY), lower funding costs, stable credit loss coverage (332 bps), and strong liquidity (40% debt, expanded $380M credit facility). Management also announced a $0.10 special dividend and highlighted operational improvements (larger underwriting team, shift into lower-risk commercial and single-family lending). Key negatives include a notable increase in Stage 3 impaired loans (driven by a few commercial loans), continued weakness in residential markets (significant declines in resales and new home sales), and uncertainty around provisioning and new loan origination in a challenging macro environment. Management expects recovery of a $31M Stage 3 loan and remains confident in underwriting and balance sheet strength.Positive Updates
Annual Net Income and EPS Growth
Atrium reported 2025 net income of $49.1 million, a 2.5% increase year-over-year, with basic earnings per share of $1.03, ahead of the fixed dividend rate of $0.93.
Negative Updates
Q4 EPS Decline Year-over-Year
Basic EPS fell to $0.25 in Q4 2025 from $0.27 in Q4 2024 (approximately a 7.4% decrease).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Annual Net Income and EPS Growth
Atrium reported 2025 net income of $49.1 million, a 2.5% increase year-over-year, with basic earnings per share of $1.03, ahead of the fixed dividend rate of $0.93.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance was cautious but constructive: they expect to opportunistically access the convertible‑debenture market in 2026 if conditions are favorable, anticipate the $31.0M Stage‑3 loan will be repaid in early Q2 2026 (alongside a $14.25M loan already repaid in January and an expected ~$12.6M paydown by end‑March), and see 2026 provisioning likely similar to 2025 (total provision expense $4.5M) but well below 2023 levels (> $10M), while continuing to re‑risk‑rate every loan each quarter; macro assumptions cited include Bank of Canada GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 and CPI at 2.3% in January with uncertain timing of further rate cuts. They will prioritize income‑producing commercial and single‑family lending (commercial now 28.7% of the $917.1M portfolio, up $72M or 38% YoY; single‑family/apartment 19.2%, up 14% YoY; together ~48%), supported by a liquid, well‑capitalized balance sheet (balance‑sheet debt 40% with $283M drawn on a $380M facility, weighted average borrowing cost 5.08% down from 7.03%), portfolio metrics including average mortgage rate 8.98% (from 9.98% a year ago), 80.8% floating‑rate exposure, average LTV 61.4%, 95.2% first mortgages, portfolio turnover ~39% (advances $358.6M vs repayments $316.6M), ACL $30.5M (332 bps), and a $0.10 special dividend that brings total 2025 dividends to $1.03 per share (in line with EPS $1.03 and above the fixed dividend of $0.93).Atrium Mortgage Invest Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 80.83M | 85.14M | 88.70M | 90.11M | 69.84M | 56.99M |
| Gross Profit | 69.16M | 76.35M | 49.15M | 52.78M | 49.26M | 43.17M |
| EBITDA | 63.73M | 69.59M | 47.85M | 51.48M | 46.33M | 41.79M |
| Net Income | 49.18M | 49.06M | 47.85M | 51.48M | 46.33M | 41.79M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 872.00M | 893.63M | 864.30M | 877.88M | 874.78M | 775.49M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 335.38M | 355.39M | 147.44M | 169.60M | 168.96M | 174.54M |
| Total Liabilities | 343.60M | 368.58M | 347.32M | 395.67M | 399.22M | 305.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 528.40M | 525.05M | 516.98M | 482.21M | 475.56M | 470.17M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.39M | 59.40M | 68.13M | 34.87M | 58.07M | 67.89M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.39M | 59.40M | 68.13M | 34.87M | 58.07M | 67.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.24M | -42.03M | 0.00 | 13.28M | -87.81M | -33.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -26.94M | -17.36M | -68.13M | -48.15M | 29.74M | -34.86M |
Atrium Mortgage Invest Technical Analysis
Positive
12.14
Price Trends
11.64
Positive
11.45
Positive
11.17
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Negative
75.00
Negative
80.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.68, above the 50-day MA of 11.64, and above the 200-day MA of 11.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.00 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AI.
Atrium Mortgage Invest Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | C$434.99M | 12.59 | 8.48% | 8.38% | -8.75% | -3.51% | |
70 Outperform | C$990.66M | 9.97 | 12.71% | 7.33% | 10.47% | 9.78% | |
70 Outperform | C$747.22M | 15.26 | 5.89% | 0.49% | 4.86% | -24.62% | |
69 Neutral | C$1.09B | 18.29 | 9.72% | 3.01% | 4.44% | 18.34% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | C$561.83M | 11.53 | 9.36% | 7.95% | -11.74% | -1.31% | |
57 Neutral | C$530.45M | 13.44 | 4.48% | 10.00% | -10.08% | -35.26% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:AI
Atrium Mortgage Invest
11.70
1.55
15.21%
TSE:AGF.B
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16.95
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54.32%
TSE:FC
Firm Cap Mortgage Invest
11.84
0.72
6.52%
TSE:MKP
MCAN Financial
24.34
6.42
35.84%
TSE:TF
Timbercreek Financial
6.41
-0.16
-2.45%
TSE:VBNK
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23.30
7.72
49.59%
Atrium Mortgage Invest Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Atrium Mortgage Investment lifts 2025 profit, grows loan book and declares special dividend
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation reported 2025 net income of $49.1 million, up 2.5% from the prior year, with basic and diluted earnings per share of $1.03 as it navigated a challenging lending environment through disciplined underwriting an...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Atrium Mortgage to Release 2025 Results and Signals Potential Special Dividend
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation will release its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025 after markets close on February 26, 2026, followed by a management conference call the next morning to discuss performance. The company ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.