Atrium Mortgage Invest (AI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$563.75M
• Dividend Yield: 7.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 97.34K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: -13.69%
• EPS Growth: -1.60%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 48,019,990
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 100,490
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 97,343
• PEG Ratio: -3.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.47
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$84.29M

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$13.00 ▲(8.24% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is anchored by solid profitability and attractive income/valuation, supported by mildly positive technicals. Offsetting these positives are elevated credit-risk signals from the earnings call (Stage 3 loan increase) and a 2025 leverage step-up plus mixed latest cash-flow clarity.

Positive Factors

High profitability and steady ROE

Atrium exhibits durable earnings power: very high net margins historically and steady ROE around 9–11% support sustainable internal capital generation. Persistent margin strength provides cushion versus credit cycles and funds dividends and reinvestment even if revenue growth is uneven.

Improved funding costs and liquidity

Lower weighted borrowing cost and expanded committed facility materially reduce funding strain and interest sensitivity. Strong available capacity and multiple lenders increase funding optionality, supporting lending activity and smoothing cash flow across tightening funding cycles.

Conservative underwriting & portfolio metrics

High share of first mortgages, moderate average LTV, and active portfolio turnover reflect disciplined origination and risk controls. These structural underwriting strengths and recent build-out of the underwriting team lower long-term credit volatility and support repeatable origination quality.

Negative Factors

Sharp rise in Stage 3 impaired loans

A near‑tripling of Stage 3 exposures signals material credit migration concentrated in several commercial loans. This elevates loss volatility, raises forward provisioning risk, and can materially weaken earnings and capital if recoveries or repayments fall short of management expectations.

Material increase in leverage

A marked step-up in leverage increases sensitivity to funding shocks and interest-rate moves, reducing financial flexibility. Higher debt magnifies credit losses' impact on equity and raises rollover and covenant risk over the medium term, especially if origination or cash generation weaken.

Sourcing and market demand headwinds

Persistent weakness in residential markets and aggressive competitor pricing constrain new originations, limiting portfolio growth and fee income. Protracted low origination volumes can compress yield on new assets and force higher-concentration or riskier lending to sustain growth.

Atrium Mortgage Invest Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation, a non-bank lender, provides financing solutions to the real estate communities in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia. It offers various types of mortgage loans for residential, multi-residential, and commercial real properties, which includes first and second mortgages; infill construction and financing; land and land assembly financing for stacked and traditional townhomes, single detached homes, and low-rise and midrise condominiums; and bridge and term financing. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation makes money by earning interest on the funds it lends through mortgages. The company's primary revenue stream is the interest income generated from its mortgage portfolio. Atrium focuses on higher-yielding, non-conventional mortgages, allowing it to charge premium interest rates compared to traditional financial institutions. In addition to interest income, Atrium may also generate revenue from origination fees, renewal fees, and other related charges associated with mortgage lending. The company's profitability is influenced by factors such as interest rate environments, property market conditions, and its ability to effectively manage credit risk. Atrium maintains relationships with mortgage brokers and real estate professionals to source lending opportunities, contributing to its earnings.

Atrium Mortgage Invest Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and steady ROE support results, but the 2025 leverage increase and mixed/unclear latest cash-flow signals (including data-consistency flags) raise risk despite historically positive operating/free cash flow.

Income Statement

Profitability is a standout: annual net margins have remained very high (roughly mid‑50% to low‑70% range from 2020–2025) and 2025 shows exceptionally strong gross and operating profitability. Revenue has grown meaningfully over the long run (2020 to 2025), but the growth path is uneven—flat-to-down in 2020–2021 and 2024, then a modest rebound in 2025. Overall, strong earnings power with some volatility in top-line momentum.

Balance Sheet

Equity has been stable-to-up over time, and returns on equity are steady around ~9–11%, indicating consistent profitability relative to capital. The key concern is leverage: debt-to-equity rose sharply in 2025 (to ~0.68) versus 2024 (~0.29), signaling a materially more leveraged balance sheet year-over-year. Assets have grown moderately, but the leverage jump increases sensitivity to funding conditions and credit performance.

Cash Flow

Operating and free cash flow are consistently positive across the period, supporting the quality of reported earnings in most years. However, cash generation weakened in 2025 versus 2024 (operating/free cash flow down), and the provided cash-flow-to-earnings linkage metrics for 2025 are shown as 0.0, creating a data-quality/consistency flag and reducing confidence in the cash flow picture for the latest year. Cash flow stability is decent historically, but the latest-period signals are mixed.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.14M	88.70M	90.11M	69.84M	56.99M
Gross Profit	76.35M	49.15M	52.78M	49.26M	43.17M
EBITDA	69.59M	47.85M	51.48M	46.33M	41.79M
Net Income	49.06M	47.85M	51.48M	46.33M	41.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	893.63M	864.30M	877.88M	874.78M	775.49M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Debt	355.39M	147.44M	169.60M	168.96M	174.54M
Total Liabilities	368.58M	347.32M	395.67M	399.22M	305.32M
Stockholders Equity	525.05M	516.98M	482.21M	475.56M	470.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.40M	68.13M	34.87M	58.07M	67.89M
Operating Cash Flow	59.40M	68.13M	34.87M	58.07M	67.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-42.03M	0.00	13.28M	-87.81M	-33.02M
Financing Cash Flow	-17.36M	-68.13M	-48.15M	29.74M	-34.86M

Atrium Mortgage Invest Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.79, above the 50-day MA of 11.60, and above the 200-day MA of 11.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AI.

Atrium Mortgage Invest Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AGF.B	79 Outperform	C$1.31B	7.10	9.85%	3.01%	11.23%	30.44%
AI	71 Outperform	C$563.75M	11.23	9.72%	7.95%	-13.69%	-1.60%
FC	69 Neutral	C$448.57M	12.39	8.90%	8.38%	-6.64%	4.43%
MKP	69 Neutral	C$981.32M	11.86	10.50%	7.33%	7.74%	-31.96%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
VBNK	62 Neutral	C$632.20M	15.26	6.08%	0.49%	3.31%	-39.12%
TF	56 Neutral	C$561.07M	16.44	5.52%	10.00%	-9.00%	-35.22%

Atrium Mortgage Invest Corporate Events

Atrium Mortgage Investment lifts 2025 profit, grows loan book and declares special dividend

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation reported 2025 net income of $49.1 million, up 2.5% from the prior year, with basic and diluted earnings per share of $1.03 as it navigated a challenging lending environment through disciplined underwriting and a focus on lower-risk sectors. The mortgage portfolio grew 3.4% to $917.1 million, remained 95.2% in first mortgages with an average loan-to-value of 61.4%, and supported the declaration of a $0.10 special dividend for 2025 and regular dividends for the second quarter of 2026, underscoring stable returns despite lower revenue and a reduced portfolio interest rate.

Assets rose to $893.6 million while revenues declined 12.5% to $85.1 million, as lower financing costs and a smaller provision for mortgage losses helped sustain profitability and dividend coverage. Atrium expanded its credit facility by $40 million to $380 million with a new lender joining its syndicate, appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as auditor, and highlighted its experienced management team as it enters its 25th anniversary year, reinforcing its funding flexibility and positioning for continued portfolio growth and steady shareholder payouts.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AI) stock is a Hold with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atrium Mortgage Invest stock, see the TSE:AI Stock Forecast page.

Atrium Mortgage to Release 2025 Results and Signals Potential Special Dividend

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation will release its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025 after markets close on February 26, 2026, followed by a management conference call the next morning to discuss performance. The company currently pays monthly dividends totaling $0.93 per share annually and may declare a special dividend for 2025 depending on its taxable income, while continuing to promote its discounted Dividend Reinvestment Plan as a tax-efficient way for investors to compound returns through additional share purchases.

The potential special dividend underscores Atrium’s commitment to distributing all taxable income to shareholders in line with its Mortgage Investment Corporation structure. The ongoing availability of the DRIP at a 2% discount to market price further supports long-term investors by facilitating low-cost reinvestment and reinforcing Atrium’s positioning as an income-focused vehicle in Canada’s non-bank mortgage lending sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AI) stock is a Hold with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atrium Mortgage Invest stock, see the TSE:AI Stock Forecast page.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Keeps 2026 Dividend Rate Steady and Confirms Q1 Payouts

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation has confirmed that its annual dividend rate for 2026 will remain unchanged at $0.93 per common share, paid in monthly installments of $0.0775, with the board approving cash dividends for January, February and March 2026 on specified record and payment dates. The company also flagged the possibility of a special dividend related to its 2025 taxable income and reminded investors of its Dividend Reinvestment Plan, which allows shareholders to reinvest dividends into new Atrium shares at a 2% discount, reinforcing the firm’s emphasis on steady income and long-term capital compounding for its investor base.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AI) stock is a Buy with a C$13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atrium Mortgage Invest stock, see the TSE:AI Stock Forecast page.

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation Declares December 2025 Dividend

Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation has declared a December 2025 dividend of $0.0775 per common share, payable on January 13, 2026, to shareholders recorded by December 31, 2025. The company offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends in new shares at a 2% discount, facilitating investment growth through compounding. This announcement underscores Atrium’s commitment to providing stable returns and maintaining shareholder equity.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AI) stock is a Buy with a C$13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atrium Mortgage Invest stock, see the TSE:AI Stock Forecast page.