Timbercreek Fin Corp (TSE:TF)
TSX:TF
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Timbercreek Financial
(TSX:TF)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
C$7.00
â–¼(-1.82% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial fundamentals—higher leverage, declining revenues/earnings, and weaker cash conversion—alongside negative-to-soft technical momentum. These are partially offset by attractive valuation (high dividend yield and moderate P/E) and a moderately positive earnings-call outlook driven by strong originations and expected portfolio growth, though legacy credit issues remain a meaningful overhang.
Positive Factors
Portfolio Growth
Rapid portfolio growth from strong originations meaningfully expands the interest-earning asset base, increasing recurring net investment income potential. A larger loan book supports scale in underwriting and fee income, improving capacity to absorb isolated credit losses over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Higher Leverage
Materially higher leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises funding sensitivity to rate or credit shocks. Elevated debt magnifies credit-related losses and compresses returns; declining ROE (from ~9.5% to ~4.5% TTM) signals leverage is not translating into higher shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Portfolio Growth
Rapid portfolio growth from strong originations meaningfully expands the interest-earning asset base, increasing recurring net investment income potential. A larger loan book supports scale in underwriting and fee income, improving capacity to absorb isolated credit losses over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Timbercreek Financial (TF) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$530.45M
Dividend Yield10%
Average Volume (3M)187.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth-10.08%
EPS Growth-35.26%
CountryCA
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding82,753,220
10 Day Avg. Volume211,409
30 Day Avg. Volume187,804
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.66
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)3.84
P/FCF Ratio16.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$7.43Price Target Upside4.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.68
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$110.67M
Timbercreek Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Timbercreek Financial Corp., a mortgage investment company, provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. It focuses on lending against income-producing commercial real estate properties, s...
How the Company Makes Money
Timbercreek Financial makes money primarily by earning interest and related fees on the commercial mortgages it originates and holds. Its key revenue streams typically include: (1) Interest income: the spread between the yield earned on its mortga...
Timbercreek Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed constructive momentum: strong Q4 originations, healthy portfolio growth (18% QoQ), stable net investment income ($25.7M) and resilient distributable income supporting the dividend. Management emphasized an improving CRE market, a robust pipeline, and active work to resolve legacy stage loans with $6.5M of Stage 3 resolutions and ongoing progress on zoning/milestones. However, near-term headwinds remain material: $8.3M of ECLs, a $4.5M fair value loss, a $2.1M disposition loss, and a reported Q4 net loss of $1.1M tied to legacy asset valuations, plus concentrated regional exposure and notable Stage 2/3 watchlist items (e.g., a ~$158M Vancouver parcel). Overall, the positives around originations, DI stability and the constructive outlook on redeploying capital modestly outweigh the legacy-asset-driven impairments and risks, but those legacy issues remain important to monitor through 2026.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Originations and Gross Activity
Closed Q4 with nearly $334M of new net mortgage investments (23 transactions) and $425M of gross originations, driving a turnover ratio of 12% and supporting a larger pipeline into 2026.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Net Loss and Book Value Contraction
Reported a Q4 net loss of $1.1M driven by valuation adjustments related to legacy loans, resulting in book value contraction despite healthy distributable income.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 Originations and Gross Activity
Closed Q4 with nearly $334M of new net mortgage investments (23 transactions) and $425M of gross originations, driving a turnover ratio of 12% and supporting a larger pipeline into 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q4 momentum should carry into 2026, pointing to strong origination activity (net advances of nearly $334M in 23 new investments, gross originations of $425M in Q4) that drove portfolio growth of 18% over Q3 to a $1.24B mortgage portfolio (up $185M QoQ and ~ $150M YoY) and supported Q4 net investment income of $25.7M and distributable income of $15M ($0.18/share) with a ~95% payout ratio; they expect continued portfolio growth as the pipeline remains healthy, to substantially reduce stage loan balances to traditional levels by year‑end 2026 (having resolved $6.5M of Stage 3 loans in Dec‑2025), redeploy that capital into accretive loans to drive DI, and capture incremental credit spreads as rates fall (portfolio WAC was 8.1% in Q4 vs 8.3% in Q3 and 8.9% LY, LTV 67.4%, 95% first mortgages, ~62% multi‑residential, 84% cash‑flowing, 89% floating with floors and ~97% at floor); they noted Q4 repayments of $135M (turnover 12%), recent ECLs of $8.3M and a Q4 net loss of $1.1M, and cited a constructive market backdrop (Canadian transaction volume ~ $47B last year, projected ~ $56B in 2026) that should support margin expansion (management expects only modest 10–30 bps compression in yield as loans roll, offset by observed 50–75 bps of credit‑spread expansion).Timbercreek Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 145.72M | 147.44M | 161.40M | 180.97M | 148.64M | 116.57M |
| Gross Profit | 79.48M | 87.98M | 73.12M | 80.64M | 73.42M | 62.28M |
| EBITDA | 55.87M | 65.66M | 56.19M | 75.42M | 64.92M | 48.05M |
| Net Income | 30.05M | 34.45M | 46.16M | 66.42M | 55.90M | 41.31M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.08B | 1.98B | 1.73B | 1.79B | 1.92B | 1.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.19M | 7.86M | 13.30M | 4.80M | 2.83M | 6.34M |
| Total Debt | 1.41B | 1.31B | 537.27M | 402.58M | 591.11M | 587.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.42B | 1.32B | 1.05B | 1.08B | 1.22B | 1.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 658.35M | 662.25M | 686.60M | 701.14M | 698.54M | 684.58M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.96M | 34.00M | -69.08M | 259.46M | 83.17M | 81.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.39M | 34.00M | -69.08M | 259.46M | 83.17M | 81.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -122.59M | -76.31M | 1.66M | -2.51M | -44.18M | -21.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 101.89M | 35.72M | 75.95M | -254.91M | -42.45M | -54.18M |
Timbercreek Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
7.13
Price Trends
6.80
Positive
6.77
Positive
6.88
Negative
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
59.55
Neutral
80.70
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.74, above the 50-day MA of 6.80, and above the 200-day MA of 6.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TF.
Timbercreek Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | C$297.18M | 23.26 | 45.15% | 6.44% | -7.75% | -25.64% | |
72 Outperform | C$434.99M | 12.59 | 8.48% | 8.38% | -8.75% | -3.51% | |
70 Outperform | C$990.66M | 9.97 | 12.71% | 7.33% | 10.47% | 9.78% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | C$4.21B | 12.46 | 7.31% | 2.09% | -8.84% | -41.65% | |
62 Neutral | C$561.83M | 11.53 | 9.36% | 7.95% | -11.74% | -1.31% | |
57 Neutral | C$530.45M | 13.44 | 4.48% | 10.00% | -10.08% | -35.26% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:TF
Timbercreek Financial
6.41
-0.16
-2.45%
TSE:AI
Atrium Mortgage Invest
11.70
1.55
15.21%
TSE:FC
Firm Cap Mortgage Invest
11.84
0.72
6.52%
TSE:MKP
MCAN Financial
24.34
6.42
35.84%
TSE:OLY
Olympia Financial
123.50
22.77
22.60%
TSE:EQB
Equitable Group
115.00
20.21
21.32%
Timbercreek Financial Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Timbercreek Financial Sets May 6 Call to Review First-Quarter Results
Neutral
Apr 15, 2026
Timbercreek Financial has scheduled a conference call and live audio webcast for May 6, 2026, to review its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, with the earnings release set for after markets close on May 5. Management wi...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Timbercreek Financial Declares March Dividend and Highlights Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Mar 23, 2026
Timbercreek Financial has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share for March 2026, payable on April 15 to shareholders of record as of March 31. The company also maintains a Dividend Reinvestment Plan that allows eligible share...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Timbercreek Financial Grows Mortgage Book but Takes Legacy-Asset Hit in Q4 2025
Neutral
Feb 26, 2026
Timbercreek Financial reported a strong fourth quarter for 2025 in terms of lending activity, advancing $333.9 million in new and existing mortgages and growing its net mortgage portfolio 18.3% over the prior quarter to $1.24 billion, largely driv...
Dividends
Timbercreek Financial Declares February 2026 Dividend and Highlights DRIP
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Timbercreek Financial has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share for February 2026, payable on March 13, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 27, 2026. The announcement underscores the company’s continued incom...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Timbercreek Financial Reschedules Q4 Results Conference Call
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
Timbercreek Financial has rescheduled the timing of its conference call and live audio webcast to discuss fourth-quarter results for the period ended December 31, 2025, moving the event to the afternoon of February 26, 2026. The lender will releas...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.