Timbercreek Financial (TF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$527.14M
• Dividend Yield: 10.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 187.80K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: -9.00%
• EPS Growth: -35.22%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 82,753,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 211,409
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 187,804
• PEG Ratio: -0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.64
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$7.88
• Price Target Upside: 21.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: C$7.00 ▲(8.02% Upside)

Timbercreek Financial's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with attractive valuation metrics, but is tempered by bearish technical indicators and mixed earnings call results. The company's strong dividend yield and reasonable P/E ratio are positive, but cash flow issues and market challenges present risks.

Positive Factors

Portfolio Growth

The growth in Timbercreek's portfolio indicates strong demand for its lending products and an effective strategy in expanding its market presence, which is crucial for long-term revenue growth and market positioning.

Credit Facility Upsize

An upsized credit facility enhances Timbercreek's ability to fund new loans and capitalize on market opportunities, supporting sustained growth and competitive advantage in the real estate lending sector.

Stable Dividends

A stable and high dividend yield reflects strong cash generation and financial health, appealing to income-focused investors and supporting long-term shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Negative Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth indicates challenges in expanding sales, which can pressure profitability and limit the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities, affecting long-term performance.

Cash Flow Challenges

Negative cash flows suggest liquidity constraints, which can hinder Timbercreek's ability to meet obligations and invest in growth, posing a risk to financial stability and operational flexibility.

Stage Loans and ECL Increase

Increased expected credit losses highlight potential risk in the loan portfolio, which could lead to higher future provisions and impact profitability, challenging Timbercreek's risk management and financial resilience.

Timbercreek Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Timbercreek Financial Corp., a mortgage investment company, provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. It focuses on lending against income-producing commercial real estate properties, such as multi-residential, office, and retail buildings located in urban markets. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Timbercreek Financial generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans secured by real estate assets. The company earns fees associated with loan origination, management, and servicing, which contribute to its overall revenue model. Key revenue streams include interest payments from borrowers, upfront fees for loan processing, and ongoing management fees from the investment funds it manages. Additionally, Timbercreek may benefit from partnerships with institutional investors and real estate developers, which can enhance its lending capabilities and expand its market reach. The company's emphasis on risk management and diversification in its portfolio also plays a critical role in maintaining stable earnings.

Timbercreek Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Timbercreek Financial shows a stable financial position with strong margins and reduced leverage. However, negative revenue growth and cash flow challenges indicate potential risks. The company needs to address its cash flow issues to ensure long-term sustainability while maintaining its profitability margins.

Income Statement

Timbercreek Financial's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is healthy at 47.35%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased slightly to 27.93% from 28.60% in the previous annual report, suggesting some pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been negative at -3.4% in the TTM, reflecting challenges in expanding sales. The EBIT margin remains strong at 34.64%, but has slightly declined from previous periods, indicating stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71, which is an improvement from the previous year's 0.78, indicating reduced leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is moderate at 6.33%, showing a slight decline from 6.72% in the previous year, which suggests a need for improved profitability. The equity ratio stands at 37.27%, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM, indicating cash outflows exceeding inflows. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 21.55%, but this is from a negative base, which may not be sustainable. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting all net income is being converted to free cash flow, but the negative cash flow is a risk factor.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	156.02M	161.40M	180.97M	148.31M	116.57M	125.70M
Gross Profit	73.87M	73.12M	80.64M	65.52M	56.92M	59.25M
EBITDA	54.04M	56.19M	75.42M	64.92M	48.05M	54.45M
Net Income	43.57M	46.16M	66.42M	25.10M	32.49M	22.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.83B	1.73B	1.79B	1.92B	1.73B	1.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.25M	13.30M	4.80M	2.83M	6.34M	428.00K
Total Debt	487.05M	537.27M	402.58M	591.11M	587.86M	580.09M
Total Liabilities	1.15B	1.05B	1.08B	1.22B	1.05B	1.03B
Stockholders Equity	683.49M	686.60M	701.14M	698.54M	684.58M	685.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-98.06M	-69.08M	90.19M	83.17M	81.61M	79.39M
Operating Cash Flow	-98.06M	-69.08M	90.19M	83.17M	81.61M	79.39M
Investing Cash Flow	104.26M	1.66M	203.24M	-44.18M	-21.38M	60.18M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.74M	75.95M	-291.39M	-42.45M	-54.18M	-148.04M

Timbercreek Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.48
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.09, below the 50-day MA of 7.34, and below the 200-day MA of 6.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.38 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TF.

Timbercreek Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VBNK	74 Outperform	C$530.12M	17.38	6.07%	0.60%	4.19%	-46.14%
MKP	73 Outperform	C$850.65M	11.48	11.84%	7.61%	12.10%	-18.24%
AI	68 Neutral	C$526.75M	10.44	9.72%	8.36%	-11.04%	0.44%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FC	67 Neutral	C$430.92M	11.34	9.14%	8.75%	-0.92%	4.84%
TF	60 Neutral	C$527.14M	13.90	5.52%	10.65%	-9.00%	-35.22%
DLCG	55 Neutral	C$822.72M	-4.48	-143.13%	1.33%	35.22%	-1246.65%

Timbercreek Financial Corporate Events

Timbercreek Financial Reports Stable Q3 2025 Results Amid Economic Challenges

Timbercreek Financial reported its Q3 2025 financial results, highlighting steady net investment income of $25.4 million and a slight decline in distributable income to $14.1 million. Despite economic uncertainties, the company maintained a strong transaction pipeline and increased its revolving credit facility to $600 million, indicating robust future growth potential. The company’s focus on multi-family residential real estate continues to provide stable income and protect investor capital, even as it navigates macroeconomic volatility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Declares October 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on November 14, 2025, to shareholders of record on October 31, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and encouraging long-term investment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Seeks Receiver for Calgary Office Loan

Timbercreek Financial has announced an update on its mortgage investment in the Stephen Avenue Place office tower in Calgary. The company, along with its syndication partners, has applied for a court-appointed receiver to manage the property following the end of a forbearance period. This move aims to protect stakeholder interests and is part of Timbercreek’s strategy to preserve investor capital amid challenging market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Schedules Q3 Results Conference Call

Timbercreek Financial has announced a conference call and live audio webcast scheduled for October 30, 2025, to discuss its third-quarter financial results, which will be released the day before. This event provides stakeholders an opportunity to engage with management and gain insights into the company’s performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Announces September 2025 Dividend and Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on October 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 29, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest cash dividends into additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Announces August 2025 Dividend and Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on September 15, 2025, to shareholders of record on August 29, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends to purchase additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and encouraging long-term investment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Secures $600 Million Credit Facility to Bolster Growth

Timbercreek Financial has announced a new revolving credit facility totaling $600 million, an increase from the previous $510 million, with a $100 million accordion feature for potential future expansion. The facility, secured with a syndicate of nine lenders and led by Toronto-Dominion Bank, reflects confidence in Timbercreek’s financial position and strategic direction, allowing for enhanced flexibility in funding mortgage investments or acquisitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call for Timbercreek Financial revealed a mixed sentiment, highlighting both positive developments and challenges. The company showcased portfolio growth and improved credit facility terms, but also faced tariff-related uncertainties and a decrease in net investment income. While the performance and strategic advancements were commendable, financial and macroeconomic pressures were evident.