Timbercreek Financial (TF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$570.17M
• Dividend Yield: 10.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 187.80K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: -9.00%
• EPS Growth: -35.22%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 82,753,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 211,409
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 187,804
• PEG Ratio: -0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.64
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$7.88
• Price Target Upside: 14.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: C$7.50 ▲(9.17% Upside)

Timbercreek Financial's overall stock score reflects a balance of strengths and challenges. The company's strong dividend yield and reasonable valuation are significant positives. However, financial performance concerns, particularly around cash flow and revenue growth, weigh on the score. Technical analysis suggests stability, while the earnings call highlights both growth potential and operational challenges.

Positive Factors

Portfolio Growth

Consistent portfolio growth indicates strong market demand and effective capital deployment, supporting long-term revenue expansion.

Interest Rate Management

Effective interest rate management can enhance profitability by reducing funding costs, benefiting long-term financial performance.

Credit Facility Upsize

An upsized credit facility enhances financial flexibility, enabling the company to capitalize on growth opportunities and manage liquidity.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Challenges

Negative revenue growth suggests difficulties in expanding market share or product demand, potentially impacting long-term financial health.

Cash Flow Issues

Negative operating cash flow can strain liquidity, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth and meet obligations.

Stage Loans and ECL Increase

Increased expected credit losses reflect higher risk in the loan portfolio, potentially affecting future profitability and stability.

Timbercreek Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Timbercreek Financial Corp., a mortgage investment company, provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. It focuses on lending against income-producing commercial real estate properties, such as multi-residential, office, and retail buildings located in urban markets. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Timbercreek Financial generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans secured by real estate assets. The company earns fees associated with loan origination, management, and servicing, which contribute to its overall revenue model. Key revenue streams include interest payments from borrowers, upfront fees for loan processing, and ongoing management fees from the investment funds it manages. Additionally, Timbercreek may benefit from partnerships with institutional investors and real estate developers, which can enhance its lending capabilities and expand its market reach. The company's emphasis on risk management and diversification in its portfolio also plays a critical role in maintaining stable earnings.

Timbercreek Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Timbercreek Financial shows a stable financial position with strong margins and reduced leverage. However, negative revenue growth and cash flow challenges indicate potential risks. The company needs to address its cash flow issues to ensure long-term sustainability while maintaining its profitability margins.

Income Statement

Timbercreek Financial's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is healthy at 47.35%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased slightly to 27.93% from 28.60% in the previous annual report, suggesting some pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been negative at -3.4% in the TTM, reflecting challenges in expanding sales. The EBIT margin remains strong at 34.64%, but has slightly declined from previous periods, indicating stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71, which is an improvement from the previous year's 0.78, indicating reduced leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is moderate at 6.33%, showing a slight decline from 6.72% in the previous year, which suggests a need for improved profitability. The equity ratio stands at 37.27%, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM, indicating cash outflows exceeding inflows. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 21.55%, but this is from a negative base, which may not be sustainable. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting all net income is being converted to free cash flow, but the negative cash flow is a risk factor.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	154.33M	161.40M	180.97M	148.64M	116.57M	125.70M
Gross Profit	78.96M	73.12M	80.64M	73.42M	62.28M	66.14M
EBITDA	53.06M	56.19M	75.42M	64.92M	48.05M	40.63M
Net Income	37.97M	46.16M	66.42M	55.90M	41.31M	32.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.75B	1.73B	1.79B	1.92B	1.73B	1.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.27M	13.30M	4.80M	2.83M	6.34M	428.00K
Total Debt	1.05B	537.27M	402.58M	591.11M	587.86M	580.09M
Total Liabilities	1.07B	1.05B	1.08B	1.22B	1.05B	1.03B
Stockholders Equity	677.67M	686.60M	701.14M	698.54M	684.58M	685.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-114.58M	-69.08M	259.46M	83.17M	81.61M	79.39M
Operating Cash Flow	-109.15M	-69.08M	259.46M	83.17M	81.61M	79.39M
Investing Cash Flow	180.36M	1.66M	-2.51M	-44.18M	-21.38M	60.18M
Financing Cash Flow	-75.93M	75.95M	-254.91M	-42.45M	-54.18M	-148.04M

Timbercreek Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.87
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.77, above the 50-day MA of 6.79, and below the 200-day MA of 6.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TF.

Timbercreek Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MKP	69 Neutral	C$890.73M	13.34	10.50%	7.38%	7.74%	-31.96%
TF	68 Neutral	C$570.17M	15.03	5.52%	10.04%	-9.00%	-35.22%
AI	68 Neutral	C$557.01M	11.12	9.72%	7.93%	-13.69%	-1.60%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FC	67 Neutral	C$427.99M	11.29	8.90%	8.44%	-6.64%	4.43%
VBNK	67 Neutral	C$633.16M	21.94	6.08%	0.49%	3.31%	-39.12%
DLCG	50 Neutral	C$767.14M	-4.21	-137.87%	1.52%	36.52%	-1243.96%

Timbercreek Financial Corporate Events

Timbercreek Financial Declares November 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on December 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 28, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and engagement.

Timbercreek Financial Reports Stable Q3 2025 Results Amid Economic Challenges

Timbercreek Financial reported its Q3 2025 financial results, highlighting steady net investment income of $25.4 million and a slight decline in distributable income to $14.1 million. Despite economic uncertainties, the company maintained a strong transaction pipeline and increased its revolving credit facility to $600 million, indicating robust future growth potential. The company’s focus on multi-family residential real estate continues to provide stable income and protect investor capital, even as it navigates macroeconomic volatility.

Timbercreek Financial Declares October 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on November 14, 2025, to shareholders of record on October 31, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and encouraging long-term investment.

Timbercreek Financial Seeks Receiver for Calgary Office Loan

Timbercreek Financial has announced an update on its mortgage investment in the Stephen Avenue Place office tower in Calgary. The company, along with its syndication partners, has applied for a court-appointed receiver to manage the property following the end of a forbearance period. This move aims to protect stakeholder interests and is part of Timbercreek’s strategy to preserve investor capital amid challenging market conditions.

Timbercreek Financial Schedules Q3 Results Conference Call

Timbercreek Financial has announced a conference call and live audio webcast scheduled for October 30, 2025, to discuss its third-quarter financial results, which will be released the day before. This event provides stakeholders an opportunity to engage with management and gain insights into the company’s performance and strategic direction.

Timbercreek Financial Announces September 2025 Dividend and Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on October 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 29, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest cash dividends into additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and engagement.