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Timbercreek Financial (TSE:TF)
:TF
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Timbercreek Financial (TF) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:TF

Timbercreek Financial

(TSX:TF)

Rating:70Neutral
Price Target:
C$8.50
▲(9.82% Upside)
Timbercreek Financial's overall stock score is driven by its stable financial position and attractive valuation, with a high dividend yield. Technical indicators are positive, supporting a potential upward trend. However, cash flow challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties present risks that need to be addressed for sustained growth.
Positive Factors
Asset Management
Timbercreek Financial is managed by a reputable asset manager with risk management expertise, providing a consistent flow of mortgage investment opportunities that supports cash flow stability.
Dividend Yield
Timbercreek Financial provides investors with an attractive dividend yield, supported by distributable income from a portfolio of loans secured by first mortgages and income-producing properties.
Negative Factors
Loan Management
The company is still working through Stage 2 and 3 loans.

Timbercreek Financial (TF) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Timbercreek Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTimbercreek Financial Corp., a mortgage investment company, provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. It focuses on lending against income-producing commercial real estate properties, such as multi-residential, office, and retail buildings located in urban markets. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyTimbercreek Financial makes money primarily through interest income generated from its portfolio of mortgage investments. The company's revenue model is based on originating and managing a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate loans, which are structured to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns. Timbercreek Financial typically earns interest income from the loans it provides to property owners and developers, as well as fee income from loan origination and management activities. The company may also benefit from any capital appreciation on its loan portfolio. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the ability to maintain a robust pipeline of lending opportunities, effective risk management practices, and a strong network of real estate and financial industry relationships.

Timbercreek Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a balanced view with strong portfolio growth and successful risk management countered by a decrease in net investment income and challenges from macroeconomic factors like tariffs. The company is positioned for future growth, but faces ongoing challenges in resolving certain loans and maintaining income stability.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Portfolio Expansion and Growth
The portfolio expanded by 11% or $111 million higher than Q2 of last year, with a balance over $1.1 billion, marking a $35 million increase from Q1.
Resolution of Stage 2 and 3 Loans
Resolved close to $83 million in Stage 2 and 3 loans since the last earnings call, demonstrating effective management of riskier loan segments.
Stable Dividend and Yield
The company maintained a stable monthly dividend yielding close to 9%, with a book value roughly 18% above the weighted average trading price in Q2.
Credit Facility Renewal
The credit facility renewal is nearly complete, featuring a substantial upsize and improved margin terms to support growth plans.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Net Investment Income
Net investment income was $25.2 million, down from $28.6 million in Q1 and $26.4 million in Q2 last year.
High Payout Ratio
The payout ratio on distributable income was 97.8% this quarter, indicating a strain on maintaining dividend distributions.
Impact of Tariff-Related Uncertainty
Continued uncertainty from tariff issues caused transaction delays, affecting origination volume and delaying some deals into the back half of 2025.
Challenges in Resolving Remaining Stage Loans
While progress was made, challenges remain in resolving and monetizing the outstanding stage loans, which are expected to continue into 2026.
Company Guidance
During Timbercreek Financial's second quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company highlighted several key performance metrics and strategic initiatives. The portfolio expanded significantly from Q1, leading to a net investment income of $25.2 million and distributable income of $0.18 per share. Timbercreek resolved approximately $83 million in Stage 2 and Stage 3 loans and is nearing the completion of a credit facility renewal with an upsize and improved margin terms. The weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio remained stable at 66%, and the portfolio's weighted average interest rate (WAIR) decreased to 8.6%, reflecting the Bank of Canada's rate cuts. The credit facility balance increased slightly to $345 million, with a utilization rate of 87%. The company's dividend yield was approximately 9%, and they aim to grow the portfolio to $1.3 billion by the end of 2025. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly tariff-related challenges, Timbercreek remains focused on multifamily residential real estate, which comprises 55% of the portfolio, and aims to deploy capital into high-quality loans. The call underscored the company's strong client relationships and strategic positioning in the market, which support its growth objectives.

Timbercreek Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Timbercreek Financial shows strong profitability and a robust equity position with a solid income statement and balance sheet. However, challenges in operational efficiency and negative operating cash flow in the TTM period impact the financial performance score.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The company shows strong performance with a stable gross profit margin and an impressive net profit margin. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue has slightly increased compared to the previous year. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins show a slight decline in TTM compared to the annual figures, indicating some pressure on operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced use of debt and equity financing. The equity ratio is solid, suggesting a strong capital base. However, there is a slight increase in total debt over the TTM period, which could pose potential risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow statement highlights a negative free cash flow in the TTM period, driven by negative operating cash flow. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to maintain positive free cash flow in past annual periods, indicating potential to recover cash flow stability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue156.02M161.40M180.97M148.31M116.57M125.70M
Gross Profit73.87M73.12M80.64M65.52M56.92M59.25M
EBITDA54.04M56.19M75.42M64.92M48.05M54.45M
Net Income43.57M46.16M66.42M25.10M32.49M22.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.83B1.73B1.79B1.92B1.73B1.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.25M13.30M4.80M2.83M6.34M428.00K
Total Debt487.05M537.27M402.58M591.11M587.86M580.09M
Total Liabilities1.15B1.05B1.08B1.22B1.05B1.03B
Stockholders Equity683.49M686.60M701.14M698.54M684.58M685.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-98.06M-69.08M90.19M83.17M81.61M79.39M
Operating Cash Flow-98.06M-69.08M90.19M83.17M81.61M79.39M
Investing Cash Flow104.26M1.66M203.24M-44.18M-21.38M60.18M
Financing Cash Flow-4.74M75.95M-291.39M-42.45M-54.18M-148.04M

Timbercreek Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price7.74
Price Trends
50DMA
7.58
Positive
100DMA
7.23
Positive
200DMA
6.90
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Negative
RSI
65.81
Neutral
STOCH
54.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.61, above the 50-day MA of 7.58, and above the 200-day MA of 6.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TF.

Timbercreek Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
C$868.74M11.8811.84%7.30%12.10%-18.24%
70
Neutral
C$640.51M14.736.30%8.91%-10.69%-28.58%
68
Neutral
$17.89B11.9510.28%3.72%9.74%1.61%
68
Neutral
C$552.47M11.039.72%7.96%-11.04%0.44%
67
Neutral
C$442.31M11.649.14%8.48%-0.92%4.84%
52
Neutral
C$697.35M37.65-143.13%1.46%35.22%-1246.65%
$354.32M13.696.79%0.65%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TF
Timbercreek Financial
7.74
0.72
10.26%
TSE:AI
Atrium Mortgage Invest
11.60
1.06
10.06%
TSE:FC
Firm Cap Mortgage Invest
12.04
1.78
17.35%
TSE:DLCG
Dominion Lending Centres, Inc. (Canada) Class A
8.90
5.20
140.54%
TSE:MKP
MCAN Mortgage
21.91
5.81
36.09%
VBNK
Versabank
10.97
-2.35
-17.64%

Timbercreek Financial Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Timbercreek Financial Secures $600 Million Credit Facility to Bolster Growth
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Timbercreek Financial has announced a new revolving credit facility totaling $600 million, an increase from the previous $510 million, with a $100 million accordion feature for potential future expansion. The facility, secured with a syndicate of nine lenders and led by Toronto-Dominion Bank, reflects confidence in Timbercreek’s financial position and strategic direction, allowing for enhanced flexibility in funding mortgage investments or acquisitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Timbercreek Financial Reports Q2 2025 Results with Strong Portfolio Growth
Neutral
Jul 30, 2025

Timbercreek Financial reported its Q2 2025 results, showing a slight decrease in net investment income and net income compared to the previous year. Despite this, the company declared $14.3 million in dividends, maintaining an attractive yield. The net mortgage investment portfolio grew significantly, and the company made progress in resolving staged loans, freeing up capital for new investments. The company’s focus on multi-family residential properties is expected to provide stability amid economic uncertainties.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Timbercreek Financial Declares July 2025 Dividend and Enhances Shareholder Value
Positive
Jul 22, 2025

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on August 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of July 31, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to purchase additional shares at a potential discount without incurring extra fees. This announcement underscores Timbercreek’s commitment to providing value to its shareholders and enhancing its market position as a flexible and efficient lender in the commercial real estate sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Timbercreek Financial Schedules Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Neutral
Jul 18, 2025

Timbercreek Financial has announced a conference call and live webcast scheduled for July 31, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025. The results will be released on July 30, 2025, after market close. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Timbercreek Financial Declares June 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Jun 23, 2025

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and potentially increasing market participation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Timbercreek Financial Declares May 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan
Positive
May 23, 2025

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on June 13, 2025, to shareholders of record as of May 30, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends to purchase additional shares at a potential discount, thereby enhancing shareholder value and engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Timbercreek Financial Confirms Board Election and Auditor Reappointment
Neutral
May 16, 2025

Timbercreek Financial Corp. announced the results of its annual shareholders meeting, where the board of directors was successfully elected after an initial adjournment due to a lack of quorum. The reappointment of KPMG LLP as the company’s auditor was also confirmed, reflecting stability in its governance structure. This election and reappointment underscore Timbercreek Financial’s commitment to maintaining robust governance practices, which is crucial for its operations as a leading non-bank commercial real estate lender.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025