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Timbercreek Fin Corp (TSE:TF)
TSX:TF
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Timbercreek Financial (TF) AI Stock Analysis

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Timbercreek Financial

(TSX:TF)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
C$8.50
â–²(9.25%Upside)
Timbercreek Financial's overall score reflects its strong valuation and positive earnings outlook, supported by stable dividends and strategic resilience. However, challenges such as operational efficiency, negative cash flow, and market volatility slightly temper the overall positive assessment.
Positive Factors
Dividend Yield
Timbercreek Financial provides investors with an attractive dividend yield, supported by distributable income from a portfolio of loans secured by first mortgages and income-producing properties.
Growth
Growth is returning for Timbercreek Financial Corp.
Valuation
Timbercreek’s units present excellent value both on a historical basis and relative to industry peers, with shares trading at a steep discount to book value and offering a double-digit dividend yield.
Negative Factors
Loan Management
The company is still working through Stage 2 and 3 loans.

Timbercreek Financial (TF) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Timbercreek Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTimbercreek Financial (TF) is a leading non-bank commercial real estate lender based in Canada. The company specializes in providing structured short-term mortgage financing solutions to commercial real estate investors. Timbercreek Financial operates primarily in the real estate finance sector, focusing on delivering customized lending options to meet the diverse needs of its clients. The company's core services include providing first mortgages, subordinate financings, and bridge loans to support property acquisitions, development projects, and refinancing needs.
How the Company Makes MoneyTimbercreek Financial makes money primarily through the interest income generated from its loan portfolio. The company offers various lending products, including first mortgages, subordinate financings, and bridge loans, typically with short to mid-term maturities. Revenue is derived from the interest payments made by borrowers on these loans. Additionally, Timbercreek Financial may earn fees from loan origination and other related services. The company's strategic focus on commercial real estate lending allows it to leverage its expertise and relationships in the industry, contributing to its earnings. By maintaining a diversified portfolio across different property types and geographical locations, Timbercreek Financial seeks to optimize its risk-adjusted returns and ensure a steady income stream.

Timbercreek Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 14.75%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook for the company with strong net investment income and a stable dividend. However, challenges such as market volatility due to tariff disputes and an increase in loan-to-value ratios were noted. The company expressed confidence in resolving these issues and maintaining strong financial performance.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Net Investment Income
Net investment income was $28.6 million, up from $27.9 million in Q4 2024 and $24.6 million in Q1 2024.
Positive Distributable Income and Dividend Coverage
Distributable income was $0.19 per share with a payout ratio of 93%, maintaining a stable dividend.
Increase in Portfolio Size
The portfolio is 10% or $100 million higher than Q1 of last year.
Reduction in Credit Facility Utilization
The balance on the credit facility was reduced to $331 million from $396 million at the end of Q4 2024.
Sale of Senior Living Facilities
Successfully closed the sale of 3 senior living facilities, freeing up capital for higher-yielding mortgages.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility Impact
Tariff disputes caused delays in transaction activity and market uncertainty, impacting borrower timelines.
Increase in Loan to Value Ratio
Weighted average LTV increased to 66.2% in Q1 2025 from 63.3% in Q4 2024, indicating higher risk.
Challenges with Stage 2 and Stage 3 Loans
A reserve of $1.6 million was recorded due to changes in Stage 2 and Stage 3 loans.
Company Guidance
During Timbercreek Financial's first-quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, the company reported net investment income of $28.6 million, and distributable income of $0.19 per share, with a payout ratio of 93%. Earnings per share were $0.18, aligning with expectations. The portfolio's weighted average interest rate decreased to 8.7% from 8.9% in Q4 2024, reflecting a reduction following the Bank of Canada's 225 basis points rate cut. The company's book value per share was $8.28, approximately 20% above the weighted average trading price in Q1. The portfolio's loan-to-value ratio increased from 63.3% in Q4 to 66.2% in Q1, while 88.3% of the portfolio consisted of first mortgages. The company advanced nearly $150 million in new mortgage investments and ended the quarter with a portfolio balance just under $1.1 billion. Timbercreek Financial highlighted its strategy's resilience and noted a 10% dividend yield, which is a 7% premium over short-term Canadian bond yields.

Timbercreek Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Timbercreek Financial demonstrates strong profitability and a robust equity position but faces challenges with operational efficiency and cash flow management in the TTM period. The negative free cash flow and slightly declining EBIT and EBITDA margins are concerns, while the balance sheet remains solid with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio.
Income Statement
75
Positive
The company shows strong performance with a stable gross profit margin and an impressive net profit margin. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue has slightly increased compared to the previous year. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins show a slight decline in TTM compared to the annual figures, indicating some pressure on operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced use of debt and equity financing. The equity ratio is solid, suggesting a strong capital base. However, there is a slight increase in total debt over the TTM period, which could pose potential risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow statement highlights a negative free cash flow in the TTM period, driven by negative operating cash flow. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to maintain positive free cash flow in past annual periods, indicating potential to recover cash flow stability.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue161.40M180.97M148.31M116.57M125.70M
Gross Profit73.12M80.64M65.52M56.92M59.25M
EBITDA56.19M75.42M64.92M48.05M54.45M
Net Income46.16M66.42M25.10M32.49M22.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.73B1.79B1.92B1.73B1.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.30M4.80M2.83M6.34M428.00K
Total Debt537.27M402.58M591.11M587.86M580.09M
Total Liabilities1.05B1.08B1.22B1.05B1.03B
Stockholders Equity686.60M701.14M698.54M684.58M685.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-69.08M90.19M83.17M81.61M79.39M
Operating Cash Flow-69.08M90.19M83.17M81.61M79.39M
Investing Cash Flow-103.21M203.24M-44.18M-21.38M60.18M
Financing Cash Flow75.95M-291.39M-42.45M-54.18M-148.04M

Timbercreek Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price7.78
Price Trends
50DMA
7.41
Positive
100DMA
6.93
Positive
200DMA
6.96
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.11
Negative
RSI
68.92
Neutral
STOCH
81.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.64, above the 50-day MA of 7.41, and above the 200-day MA of 6.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TF.

Timbercreek Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$513.47M14.236.79%0.79%7.83%-37.41%
TSMKP
74
Outperform
C$784.68M10.8011.99%8.00%19.71%-15.59%
TSTF
73
Outperform
C$643.82M13.876.74%8.87%-8.68%-25.42%
TSAI
68
Neutral
C$553.27M11.159.47%7.89%-1.56%-9.70%
TSFC
67
Neutral
C$453.33M12.118.89%8.27%-4.56%0.77%
61
Neutral
C$698.44M37.65-151.96%1.80%35.48%-4412.25%
58
Neutral
HK$91.35B5.46-3.21%5.54%7.36%-55.21%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TF
Timbercreek Financial
7.78
0.86
12.43%
TSE:VBNK
Versabank
15.79
-0.49
-3.00%
TSE:DLCG
Dominion Lending Centres, Inc. (Canada) Class A
8.90
5.29
146.54%
TSE:AI
Atrium Mortgage Invest
11.67
1.28
12.32%
TSE:MKP
MCAN Mortgage
19.98
4.61
29.99%
TSE:FC
Firm Cap Mortgage Invest
12.34
1.58
14.68%

Timbercreek Financial Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Timbercreek Financial Schedules Q2 2025 Earnings Call
Neutral
Jul 18, 2025

Timbercreek Financial has announced a conference call and live webcast scheduled for July 31, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025. The results will be released on July 30, 2025, after market close. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Timbercreek Financial Declares June 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Jun 23, 2025

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and potentially increasing market participation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Timbercreek Financial Declares May 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan
Positive
May 23, 2025

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on June 13, 2025, to shareholders of record as of May 30, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends to purchase additional shares at a potential discount, thereby enhancing shareholder value and engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Timbercreek Financial Confirms Board Election and Auditor Reappointment
Neutral
May 16, 2025

Timbercreek Financial Corp. announced the results of its annual shareholders meeting, where the board of directors was successfully elected after an initial adjournment due to a lack of quorum. The reappointment of KPMG LLP as the company’s auditor was also confirmed, reflecting stability in its governance structure. This election and reappointment underscore Timbercreek Financial’s commitment to maintaining robust governance practices, which is crucial for its operations as a leading non-bank commercial real estate lender.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Timbercreek Financial Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Market Volatility
Positive
May 5, 2025

Timbercreek Financial reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with net investment income rising to $28.6 million from $24.6 million in the previous year. The company declared $14.3 million in dividends, maintaining a high payout ratio and offering a premium yield compared to Canadian bonds. Despite market volatility, Timbercreek’s strategy remains resilient, with a robust transaction pipeline and a focus on multi-family residential assets, which are expected to perform well in uncertain economic conditions. The sale of a Quebec-based retirement asset further strengthened its financial position.

Dividends
Timbercreek Financial Announces April 2025 Dividend and Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Apr 22, 2025

Timbercreek Financial has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on May 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of April 30, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends to purchase additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and potentially increasing investment returns.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 24, 2025