Timbercreek Financial (TF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$633.06M
• Dividend Yield: 12.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 132.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -8.68%
• EPS Growth: -25.42%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 82,753,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 165,369
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 131,997
• PEG Ratio: -0.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$7.83
• Price Target Upside: 2.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: C$8.50 ▲(11.11%Upside)

Timbercreek Financial's overall score reflects its strong valuation and positive earnings outlook, supported by stable dividends and strategic resilience. However, challenges such as operational efficiency, negative cash flow, and market volatility slightly temper the overall positive assessment.

Positive Factors

Dividend Yield

Timbercreek Financial provides investors with an attractive dividend yield, supported by distributable income from a portfolio of loans secured by first mortgages and income-producing properties.

Valuation

Timbercreek’s units present excellent value both on a historical basis and relative to industry peers, with shares trading at a steep discount to book value and offering a double-digit dividend yield.

Negative Factors

Loan Management

The company is still working through Stage 2 and 3 loans.

Timbercreek Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Timbercreek Financial Corp., a mortgage investment company, provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. It focuses on lending against income-producing commercial real estate properties, such as multi-residential, office, and retail buildings located in urban markets. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Timbercreek Financial makes money primarily through the interest income generated from its loan portfolio. The company offers various lending products, including first mortgages, subordinate financings, and bridge loans, typically with short to mid-term maturities. Revenue is derived from the interest payments made by borrowers on these loans. Additionally, Timbercreek Financial may earn fees from loan origination and other related services. The company's strategic focus on commercial real estate lending allows it to leverage its expertise and relationships in the industry, contributing to its earnings. By maintaining a diversified portfolio across different property types and geographical locations, Timbercreek Financial seeks to optimize its risk-adjusted returns and ensure a steady income stream.

Timbercreek Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Timbercreek Financial shows strong profitability and a robust equity position but faces challenges with operational efficiency and cash flow management. The income statement reflects strong profit margins, while the balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio. However, the negative free cash flow in the TTM period indicates the need for improved cash flow management.

Income Statement

The company shows strong performance with a stable gross profit margin and an impressive net profit margin. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue has slightly increased compared to the previous year. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins show a slight decline in TTM compared to the annual figures, indicating some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a balanced use of debt and equity financing. The equity ratio is solid, suggesting a strong capital base. However, there is a slight increase in total debt over the TTM period, which could pose potential risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement highlights a negative free cash flow in the TTM period, driven by negative operating cash flow. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to maintain positive free cash flow in past annual periods, indicating potential to recover cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	161.51M	161.40M	180.97M	148.31M	116.57M	125.70M
Gross Profit	80.55M	73.12M	80.64M	65.52M	56.92M	59.25M
EBITDA	61.40M	56.19M	75.42M	64.92M	48.05M	54.45M
Net Income	46.56M	46.16M	66.42M	25.10M	32.49M	22.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.79B	1.73B	1.79B	1.92B	1.73B	1.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.29M	13.30M	4.80M	2.83M	6.34M	428.00K
Total Debt	473.00M	537.27M	402.58M	591.11M	587.86M	580.09M
Total Liabilities	1.10B	1.05B	1.08B	1.22B	1.05B	1.03B
Stockholders Equity	685.59M	686.60M	701.14M	698.54M	684.58M	685.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-80.67M	-69.08M	90.19M	83.17M	81.61M	79.39M
Operating Cash Flow	-87.35M	-69.08M	90.19M	83.17M	81.61M	79.39M
Investing Cash Flow	87.38M	-103.21M	203.24M	-44.18M	-21.38M	60.18M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.94M	75.95M	-291.39M	-42.45M	-54.18M	-148.04M

Timbercreek Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.65
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.49, above the 50-day MA of 7.20, and above the 200-day MA of 7.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 70.05 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TF.

Timbercreek Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MKP	74 Outperform	C$755.62M	10.40	11.99%	8.52%	19.71%	-15.59%
TF	73 Outperform	C$633.06M	13.64	6.74%	12.48%	-8.68%	-25.42%
AI	68 Neutral	C$547.94M	11.05	9.47%	11.18%	-1.56%	-9.70%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$16.66B	11.44	9.71%	3.91%	11.61%	-10.70%
FC	67 Neutral	C$450.39M	12.03	8.89%	10.48%	-4.56%	0.77%
DLCG	63 Neutral	C$700.79M	37.65	-151.96%	2.46%	35.48%	-4412.25%
VBNK		$369.98M	14.33	6.79%	0.61%	―	―

Timbercreek Financial Corporate Events

Timbercreek Financial Declares June 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and potentially increasing market participation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Declares May 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on June 13, 2025, to shareholders of record as of May 30, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends to purchase additional shares at a potential discount, thereby enhancing shareholder value and engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Confirms Board Election and Auditor Reappointment

Timbercreek Financial Corp. announced the results of its annual shareholders meeting, where the board of directors was successfully elected after an initial adjournment due to a lack of quorum. The reappointment of KPMG LLP as the company’s auditor was also confirmed, reflecting stability in its governance structure. This election and reappointment underscore Timbercreek Financial’s commitment to maintaining robust governance practices, which is crucial for its operations as a leading non-bank commercial real estate lender.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Market Volatility

Timbercreek Financial reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with net investment income rising to $28.6 million from $24.6 million in the previous year. The company declared $14.3 million in dividends, maintaining a high payout ratio and offering a premium yield compared to Canadian bonds. Despite market volatility, Timbercreek’s strategy remains resilient, with a robust transaction pipeline and a focus on multi-family residential assets, which are expected to perform well in uncertain economic conditions. The sale of a Quebec-based retirement asset further strengthened its financial position.

Timbercreek Financial Announces April 2025 Dividend and Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on May 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of April 30, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends to purchase additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and potentially increasing investment returns.

Timbercreek Financial to Discuss Q1 Results in Upcoming Conference Call

Timbercreek Financial announced it will hold a conference call and live webcast on May 6, 2025, to discuss its first quarter financial results, which will be released the previous day. This call will provide stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance and allow analysts to engage in a Q&A session, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market positioning.