Timbercreek Financial (TF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$590.86M
• Dividend Yield: 9.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 176.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: -10.69%
• EPS Growth: -28.58%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 82,753,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 202,665
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 176,939
• PEG Ratio: -0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.64
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$8.25
• Price Target Upside: 15.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: C$8.00 ▲(12.04% Upside)

Timbercreek Financial's overall stock score is driven by a stable financial position and attractive valuation, offset by technical weaknesses and cash flow challenges. The earnings call provided a balanced view with growth potential, but highlighted ongoing risks. The high dividend yield is a positive, but sustainability concerns remain due to the high payout ratio.

Positive Factors

Portfolio Growth

The significant portfolio growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, enhancing Timbercreek's market position and revenue potential.

Risk Management

Effective resolution of riskier loans demonstrates strong risk management capabilities, which is crucial for maintaining financial stability and investor confidence.

Credit Facility Renewal

The renewal and upsize of the credit facility provide Timbercreek with enhanced financial flexibility to support future growth initiatives and manage liquidity needs.

Negative Factors

Negative Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth reflects challenges in expanding sales, which could impact long-term profitability and market competitiveness if not addressed.

Cash Flow Challenges

Persistent cash flow challenges may strain Timbercreek's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives, posing a risk to financial health and dividend sustainability.

High Payout Ratio

A high payout ratio indicates potential strain on maintaining dividends, which could affect investor returns and the company's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities.

Timbercreek Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Timbercreek Financial (TF) is a leading non-bank commercial real estate lender in Canada. The company specializes in providing shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors. Timbercreek Financial offers a range of tailored mortgage solutions, focusing primarily on first mortgages, subordinate mortgages, and bridge loans across various property types such as multi-residential, office, retail, and industrial properties.

How the Company Makes Money

Timbercreek Financial makes money primarily through interest income generated from its portfolio of mortgage investments. The company's revenue model is based on originating and managing a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate loans, which are structured to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns. Timbercreek Financial typically earns interest income from the loans it provides to property owners and developers, as well as fee income from loan origination and management activities. The company may also benefit from any capital appreciation on its loan portfolio. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the ability to maintain a robust pipeline of lending opportunities, effective risk management practices, and a strong network of real estate and financial industry relationships.

Timbercreek Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Timbercreek Financial shows a stable financial position with strong margins and reduced leverage. However, negative revenue growth and cash flow challenges indicate potential risks. The company needs to address its cash flow issues to ensure long-term sustainability while maintaining its profitability margins.

Income Statement

Timbercreek Financial's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is healthy at 47.35%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased slightly to 27.93% from 28.60% in the previous annual report, suggesting some pressure on profitability. Revenue growth has been negative at -3.4% in the TTM, reflecting challenges in expanding sales. The EBIT margin remains strong at 34.64%, but has slightly declined from previous periods, indicating stable operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71, which is an improvement from the previous year's 0.78, indicating reduced leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is moderate at 6.33%, showing a slight decline from 6.72% in the previous year, which suggests a need for improved profitability. The equity ratio stands at 37.27%, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns, with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM, indicating cash outflows exceeding inflows. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 21.55%, but this is from a negative base, which may not be sustainable. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting all net income is being converted to free cash flow, but the negative cash flow is a risk factor.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	156.02M	161.40M	180.97M	148.31M	116.57M	125.70M
Gross Profit	73.87M	73.12M	80.64M	65.52M	56.92M	59.25M
EBITDA	54.04M	56.19M	75.42M	64.92M	48.05M	54.45M
Net Income	43.57M	46.16M	66.42M	25.10M	32.49M	22.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.83B	1.73B	1.79B	1.92B	1.73B	1.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.25M	13.30M	4.80M	2.83M	6.34M	428.00K
Total Debt	487.05M	537.27M	402.58M	591.11M	587.86M	580.09M
Total Liabilities	1.15B	1.05B	1.08B	1.22B	1.05B	1.03B
Stockholders Equity	683.49M	686.60M	701.14M	698.54M	684.58M	685.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-98.06M	-69.08M	90.19M	83.17M	81.61M	79.39M
Operating Cash Flow	-98.06M	-69.08M	90.19M	83.17M	81.61M	79.39M
Investing Cash Flow	104.26M	1.66M	203.24M	-44.18M	-21.38M	60.18M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.74M	75.95M	-291.39M	-42.45M	-54.18M	-148.04M

Timbercreek Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.50, below the 50-day MA of 7.54, and above the 200-day MA of 6.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.35 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TF.

Timbercreek Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VBNK	74 Outperform	$535.59M	17.56	6.07%	0.60%	4.19%	-46.14%
MKP	73 Outperform	C$820.53M	11.08	11.84%	7.93%	12.10%	-18.24%
AI	68 Neutral	C$541.04M	10.73	9.72%	8.15%	-11.04%	0.44%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FC	67 Neutral	C$437.17M	11.50	9.14%	8.58%	-0.92%	4.84%
TF	62 Neutral	C$590.86M	13.59	6.30%	9.66%	-10.69%	-28.58%
DLCG	52 Neutral	C$814.89M	37.65	-143.13%	1.35%	35.22%	-1246.65%

Timbercreek Financial Corporate Events

Timbercreek Financial Secures $600 Million Credit Facility to Bolster Growth

Timbercreek Financial has announced a new revolving credit facility totaling $600 million, an increase from the previous $510 million, with a $100 million accordion feature for potential future expansion. The facility, secured with a syndicate of nine lenders and led by Toronto-Dominion Bank, reflects confidence in Timbercreek’s financial position and strategic direction, allowing for enhanced flexibility in funding mortgage investments or acquisitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Reports Q2 2025 Results with Strong Portfolio Growth

Timbercreek Financial reported its Q2 2025 results, showing a slight decrease in net investment income and net income compared to the previous year. Despite this, the company declared $14.3 million in dividends, maintaining an attractive yield. The net mortgage investment portfolio grew significantly, and the company made progress in resolving staged loans, freeing up capital for new investments. The company’s focus on multi-family residential properties is expected to provide stability amid economic uncertainties.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Declares July 2025 Dividend and Enhances Shareholder Value

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on August 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of July 31, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to purchase additional shares at a potential discount without incurring extra fees. This announcement underscores Timbercreek’s commitment to providing value to its shareholders and enhancing its market position as a flexible and efficient lender in the commercial real estate sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Schedules Q2 2025 Earnings Call

Timbercreek Financial has announced a conference call and live webcast scheduled for July 31, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025. The results will be released on July 30, 2025, after market close. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, potentially impacting investor confidence and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Declares June 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 30, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a potential discount, enhancing shareholder value and potentially increasing market participation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Declares May 2025 Dividend and Offers Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on June 13, 2025, to shareholders of record as of May 30, 2025. The company also offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan, allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends to purchase additional shares at a potential discount, thereby enhancing shareholder value and engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Confirms Board Election and Auditor Reappointment

Timbercreek Financial Corp. announced the results of its annual shareholders meeting, where the board of directors was successfully elected after an initial adjournment due to a lack of quorum. The reappointment of KPMG LLP as the company’s auditor was also confirmed, reflecting stability in its governance structure. This election and reappointment underscore Timbercreek Financial’s commitment to maintaining robust governance practices, which is crucial for its operations as a leading non-bank commercial real estate lender.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.