Timbercreek Financial (TF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$553.62M
• Dividend Yield: 10%
• Average Volume (3M): 187.80K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: -9.00%
• EPS Growth: -35.22%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 82,753,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 211,409
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 187,804
• PEG Ratio: -0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.84
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$7.65
• Price Target Upside: 7.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.69
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$106.34M

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: C$7.00 ▼(-1.82% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/04/26

The score reflects a profitable but higher-risk financial profile (higher leverage and volatile cash flow) as the primary constraint, partially offset by constructive earnings-call momentum and a very high dividend yield. Technically, the stock is in a weak trend despite oversold indicators.

Positive Factors

Margin Strength

Sustained high operating and net margins provide a durable earnings buffer for a mortgage lender, supporting dividend distributions and internal capital generation. Robust margins help absorb periodic credit losses and valuation adjustments, preserving the firm's ability to originate and hold assets over the medium term.

Origination Capacity & Pipeline

Strong and recurring origination volumes signal scalable deal flow and the ability to redeploy capital into yield-accretive loans. A healthy pipeline and substantial recent originations underpin sustainable portfolio growth, recurring interest income, and the potential to replace legacy, non-earning assets over the next 2-6 months.

Conservative Underwriting & Portfolio Mix

A portfolio concentrated in first mortgages, cash-flowing and multi-residential assets with moderate LTVs reduces severity of losses and supports stable interest income. This underwriting mix materially lowers downside risk compared with unsecured or higher-LTV exposures, aiding credit resilience as loans season.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage

A materially higher debt-to-equity ratio erodes financial flexibility for a mortgage lender, increasing sensitivity to funding costs and market stress. Elevated leverage amplifies earnings volatility and limits the company's capacity to absorb further credit losses or pursue opportunistic lending without additional capital.

Volatile Cash Generation

Inconsistent operating cash flow undermines predictable distributable income and forces greater reliance on external funding to support growth. Volatility in cash conversion raises refinancing and liquidity risk, complicating capital allocation and making dividend coverage and loan originations more contingent on market access.

Legacy Stage Loans & Concentration

Material legacy stage files and a concentrated large parcel increase the risk of further expected credit losses and valuation write downs. Geographic concentration in a few provinces magnifies localized CRE cycles, delaying full redeployment of capital and pressuring book value until problem assets resolve.

Timbercreek Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Timbercreek Financial Corp., a mortgage investment company, provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. It focuses on lending against income-producing commercial real estate properties, such as multi-residential, office, and retail buildings located in urban markets. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Timbercreek Financial generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans secured by real estate assets. The company earns fees associated with loan origination, management, and servicing, which contribute to its overall revenue model. Key revenue streams include interest payments from borrowers, upfront fees for loan processing, and ongoing management fees from the investment funds it manages. Additionally, Timbercreek may benefit from partnerships with institutional investors and real estate developers, which can enhance its lending capabilities and expand its market reach. The company's emphasis on risk management and diversification in its portfolio also plays a critical role in maintaining stable earnings.

Timbercreek Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability (net margin ~23%, operating margin ~45%) is offset by weakening momentum (revenue down ~4.5% in 2025 and net income down YoY), materially higher leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.0x), and volatile cash generation (OCF negative in 2024, only modestly positive in 2025).

Income Statement

Profitability remains a clear strength: the latest annual period shows solid gross and operating profitability (net margin ~23% and operating margin ~45%). However, growth has turned negative, with revenue down ~4.5% in 2025 after being roughly flat-to-down in 2024, and net income also declining versus the prior year—suggesting pressure on earnings momentum despite strong margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased materially in 2025, with debt-to-equity rising to ~2.0x from below 1.0x in prior years, which meaningfully reduces balance-sheet flexibility for a mortgage lender. Equity remains sizable, but returns on equity have softened (about ~5% in 2025 versus ~9% in 2023), pointing to weaker capital efficiency alongside the higher leverage profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been volatile. Operating cash flow swung from strongly positive in 2023 to negative in 2024, then recovered to modestly positive in 2025 (~$34M). While 2025 cash flow covered net income (about ~1.1x), the sharp free-cash-flow decline and the prior-year cash outflow highlight inconsistent cash conversion and higher uncertainty in underlying cash earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	147.44M	161.40M	180.97M	148.64M	116.57M
Gross Profit	87.98M	73.12M	80.64M	73.42M	62.28M
EBITDA	65.66M	56.19M	75.42M	64.92M	48.05M
Net Income	34.45M	46.16M	66.42M	55.90M	41.31M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.98B	1.73B	1.79B	1.92B	1.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.86M	13.30M	4.80M	2.83M	6.34M
Total Debt	1.31B	537.27M	402.58M	591.11M	587.86M
Total Liabilities	1.32B	1.05B	1.08B	1.22B	1.05B
Stockholders Equity	662.25M	686.60M	701.14M	698.54M	684.58M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	34.00M	-69.08M	259.46M	83.17M	81.61M
Operating Cash Flow	34.00M	-69.08M	259.46M	83.17M	81.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-76.31M	1.66M	-2.51M	-44.18M	-21.38M
Financing Cash Flow	35.72M	75.95M	-254.91M	-42.45M	-54.18M

Timbercreek Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.06, above the 50-day MA of 6.96, and above the 200-day MA of 6.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TF.

Timbercreek Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AI	71 Outperform	C$565.58M	11.51	9.72%	7.95%	-13.69%	-1.60%
OLY	70 Neutral	C$291.43M	14.68	50.74%	6.44%	-2.76%	-12.20%
FC	69 Neutral	C$448.21M	11.93	8.90%	8.38%	-6.64%	4.43%
MKP	69 Neutral	C$983.75M	13.03	10.50%	7.33%	7.74%	-31.96%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
EQB	65 Neutral	$4.23B	19.18	8.72%	2.09%	-7.50%	-34.45%
TF	56 Neutral	C$553.62M	16.25	5.52%	10.00%	-9.00%	-35.22%

Timbercreek Financial Corporate Events

Timbercreek Financial Grows Mortgage Book but Takes Legacy-Asset Hit in Q4 2025

Timbercreek Financial reported a strong fourth quarter for 2025 in terms of lending activity, advancing $333.9 million in new and existing mortgages and growing its net mortgage portfolio 18.3% over the prior quarter to $1.24 billion, largely driven by multi-family opportunities. Despite resilient portfolio yields and steady distributable income that supported a monthly dividend with a 9.5% yield at current prices, the company posted a small net loss due to expected credit losses, fair value write-downs on mortgage investments, and the sale of legacy land assets, while signaling that resolving these legacy positions and redeploying capital should strengthen earnings capacity in 2026.

Management highlighted that lower floating interest rates are favourable for its bridge lending model and have begun to expand lending margins as rates decline, reinforcing the core portfolio’s ability to generate recurring income. The company’s high proportion of variable-rate loans with interest rate floors has limited the impact of rate cuts on its weighted average interest rate, and executives reiterated their focus on disposing of most legacy staged loans over the coming year to align the portfolio more closely with its current strategy and support ongoing dividend stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Declares February 2026 Dividend and Highlights DRIP

Timbercreek Financial has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share for February 2026, payable on March 13, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 27, 2026. The announcement underscores the company’s continued income distribution to investors and signals stability in its lending operations.

The company also highlighted its Dividend Reinvestment Plan, which allows shareholders to reinvest cash dividends into additional common shares, either purchased on the open market or issued from treasury at a slight discount to the average market price. This program offers investors a cost-effective way to compound their holdings, potentially deepening shareholder engagement and supporting Timbercreek Financial’s capital base over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Reschedules Q4 Results Conference Call

Timbercreek Financial has rescheduled the timing of its conference call and live audio webcast to discuss fourth-quarter results for the period ended December 31, 2025, moving the event to the afternoon of February 26, 2026. The lender will release its quarterly financial results after markets close on February 25, 2026, and the call, which includes a Q&A session with analysts, will be accessible via webcast with a replay available on the company’s website, underscoring its ongoing engagement and transparency with investors and market participants.

The change in timing is a logistical update rather than a shift in disclosure plans, but it highlights Timbercreek Financial’s continued emphasis on communicating its performance and outlook to stakeholders. For investors in the non-bank commercial real estate lending space, the forthcoming results and management commentary may offer insight into loan demand, credit quality and return prospects in a market where alternative lenders play an increasingly important role.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Sets Investor Call for Q4 2025 Results

Timbercreek Financial has scheduled a conference call and live audio webcast on February 26, 2026, to review its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, which will be released after markets close on February 25. The call, which will include a question-and-answer session with analysts and be made available for replay on the company’s website, signals ongoing engagement with investors and analysts as the lender updates the market on its fourth-quarter performance and outlook in the commercial real estate financing sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Announces January 2026 Monthly Dividend and Highlights DRIP

Timbercreek Financial has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share for January 2026, payable on February 13, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 30. The company continues to promote its Dividend Reinvestment Plan, which allows eligible shareholders to reinvest their cash dividends into additional common shares, either acquired in the open market or issued from treasury at a slight discount to the average market price, offering an efficient way to increase holdings without commissions or fees.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.

Timbercreek Financial Declares December 2025 Dividend and Promotes Reinvestment Plan

Timbercreek Financial has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.0575 per common share, payable on January 15, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025. The company continues to promote its Dividend Reinvestment Plan, which allows shareholders to reinvest their cash dividends into additional common shares, either purchased on the open market or issued from treasury at a slight discount to the prevailing average market price, reinforcing its strategy of providing income while supporting long-term capital growth for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TF) stock is a Hold with a C$7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Timbercreek Financial stock, see the TSE:TF Stock Forecast page.