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Timbercreek Financial
(TSX:TF)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$6.50
â–²(5.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is anchored by mixed fundamentals: strong underlying profitability and a recent cash-flow rebound are offset by materially higher leverage and lower ROE. The latest earnings call supports a cautiously positive outlook (stable distributable income and reduced Stage 3 exposure) but credit-loss impacts and remaining Stage 2/3 exposure keep risk elevated. Technically, the stock is trending below major moving averages, while valuation is helped by the high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Sustained Profitability
Timbercreek’s persistent high operating and net margins reflect durable earnings power from structured, real-estate secured lending. Margin strength supports distributable income and absorbs cyclical funding cost swings, underpinning cash returns across a multi-month horizon.
Negative Factors
Materially Higher Leverage
Significantly higher leverage constrains balance-sheet optionality and elevates refinancing and liquidity risk if credit conditions or funding costs deteriorate. Elevated debt reduces resiliency to future credit losses and limits ability to add capital without dilutive steps.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Profitability
Timbercreek’s persistent high operating and net margins reflect durable earnings power from structured, real-estate secured lending. Margin strength supports distributable income and absorbs cyclical funding cost swings, underpinning cash returns across a multi-month horizon.
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Timbercreek Financial (TF) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$517.21M
Dividend Yield11.2%
Average Volume (3M)187.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.1
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth-5.01%
EPS Growth-41.36%
CountryCA
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding82,753,220
10 Day Avg. Volume211,409
30 Day Avg. Volume187,804
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)3.84
P/FCF Ratio16.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$6.50Price Target Upside5.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$104.47M
Timbercreek Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Timbercreek Financial Corp. provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. The company focuses on lending against income-producing real estate properties, including multi-residential, retail...
How the Company Makes Money
TF makes money primarily by earning interest income and fees from a portfolio of real estate-secured loans. Its core revenue stream is net interest income: TF originates and holds commercial mortgages and structured loans, collects contractual int...
Timbercreek Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously positive operational picture: distributable income and net investment income were stable, originations and syndication activity were strong, and management made meaningful progress reducing Stage 3 exposure (>51% reduction since year-end). However, IFRS earnings were materially impacted by increased expected credit losses and valuation adjustments (net income fell ~37%), and roughly ~20% of the portfolio remains in Stage 2/3 with near-term PCLs potentially elevated. Management emphasized active resolution plans and the ability to redeploy recovered capital into performing loans, supporting a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Stable Distributable Income and Dividend Support
Distributable income of $14.6 million ($0.18 per share) in Q2, essentially unchanged from Q1 ($14.5 million) — a QoQ increase of ~0.7%. Payout ratio remained within target at 97.7%, and management reiterated that distributable income supports the monthly dividend.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Income and Comprehensive Income
Net income and comprehensive income for the quarter were $7.8 million versus $12.4 million in the prior period, a decline of approximately 37% (driven primarily by increased expected credit losses and valuation adjustments).
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Stable Distributable Income and Dividend Support
Distributable income of $14.6 million ($0.18 per share) in Q2, essentially unchanged from Q1 ($14.5 million) — a QoQ increase of ~0.7%. Payout ratio remained within target at 97.7%, and management reiterated that distributable income supports the monthly dividend.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that the focus remains on supporting the monthly dividend and redeploying capital as stage loans resolve, citing Q2 distributable income of $14.6M ($0.18/share) with a payout ratio of 97.7%, net investment income of $24.9M, net income and comprehensive income of $7.8M (net income before expected credit losses $14.5M or $0.18/share), and historical quarterly distributable income averaging ~$0.19/share (range $0.17–$0.21); portfolio and activity metrics included net mortgage investments of ~$1.14B at quarter end (portfolio balance ~$1.24B after ~$100M deployed in July), $154M advanced in Q2 (~$315M YTD across 24 new investments, 11 in Q2), repayments of ~ $250M in Q2, ~60% of investments in multi‑res, just over 81% in cash‑flowing properties, ~90% floating‑rate loans (most at contractual floors), 97% of invested capital concentrated in Ontario/BC/Quebec/Alberta, Stage 3 balances down >51% since year‑end with most remaining Stage 2/3 positions expected to be resolved by year‑end, leverage ~48%, and ongoing expectations for robust H2 originations and fee/syndication support to earnings.Timbercreek Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 148.71M | 147.44M | 161.40M | 180.97M | 148.64M | 116.57M |
| Gross Profit | 77.89M | 87.98M | 73.12M | 80.64M | 73.42M | 62.28M |
| EBITDA | 51.31M | 65.66M | 56.19M | 75.42M | 64.92M | 48.05M |
| Net Income | 25.50M | 34.45M | 46.16M | 66.42M | 55.90M | 41.31M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.18B | 1.98B | 1.73B | 1.79B | 1.92B | 1.73B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.94M | 7.86M | 13.30M | 4.80M | 2.83M | 6.34M |
| Total Debt | 1.51B | 1.31B | 537.27M | 402.58M | 591.11M | 587.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.53B | 1.32B | 1.05B | 1.08B | 1.22B | 1.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 651.89M | 662.25M | 686.60M | 701.14M | 698.54M | 684.58M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 111.26M | 34.00M | -69.08M | 259.46M | 83.17M | 81.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 111.26M | 34.00M | -69.08M | 259.46M | 83.17M | 81.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -118.13M | -76.31M | 1.66M | -2.51M | -44.18M | -21.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 59.08M | 35.72M | 75.95M | -254.91M | -42.45M | -54.18M |
Timbercreek Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
6.19
Price Trends
6.33
Negative
6.40
Negative
6.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
45.64
Neutral
79.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.16, below the 50-day MA of 6.33, and below the 200-day MA of 6.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TF.
Timbercreek Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$436.46M | 12.28 | 8.48% | 8.42% | -10.14% | -7.73% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | C$570.49M | 11.80 | 9.06% | 8.65% | -10.85% | -5.88% | |
65 Neutral | C$245.45M | 15.75 | 39.27% | 6.72% | -11.15% | -31.72% | |
63 Neutral | C$960.14M | 11.14 | 13.08% | 6.53% | 12.78% | 14.21% | |
62 Neutral | C$517.21M | 20.12 | 3.85% | 11.15% | -5.01% | -41.36% | |
62 Neutral | C$5.20B | 27.55 | 6.16% | 1.68% | -7.70% | -48.41% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:TF
Timbercreek Financial
6.16
-0.79
-11.39%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.