Cenovus Energy (CVE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$47.37B
• Dividend Yield: 3.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.70M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: -9.17%
• EPS Growth: -12.97%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 7,150
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.72
• Shares Outstanding: 1,890,332,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,115,682
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,698,340
• PEG Ratio: -0.59
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$29.93
• Price Target Upside: 19.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.74
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$46.35B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: C$25.00 ▼(-0.24% Downside)

Cenovus Energy's overall stock score reflects a strong operational performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly the MEG Energy acquisition. While financial performance shows stability, challenges in revenue growth and free cash flow generation remain. Technical indicators and recent corporate events further support a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Upstream Production Growth

Record upstream production (833k BOE/d) and strong oil sands output (643k bpd) plus project ramp-ups (Narrows Lake, Christina Lake, Foster Creek) and West White Rose first oil expected in 2026 create a durable production base that supports mid-term cash flow and scale economies.

Downstream Operational Efficiency

Very high refining utilization and throughput provide stable downstream margins and reliable cash generation. Vertical integration lets Cenovus capture processing spreads, diversify revenue sources and reduce commodity exposure, supporting earnings resilience across multiple quarters.

Balance Sheet Discipline and Capital Framework

Explicit deleveraging targets and an adjusted returns framework balance shareholder distributions with debt reduction. A clear net debt roadmap to $4B improves predictability of capital allocation, strengthens credit profile and supports sustainable returns over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue and Weak Free Cash Flow

Sizable revenue decline and weakening free cash flow growth constrain internal funding for capex and shareholder returns. A low free cash flow to net income ratio (0.36) limits financial flexibility, making sustained investment, deleveraging or opportunistic M&A harder without external financing.

Operational Disruptions and Inventory Losses

Production shut-ins at Rush Lake and $88M of downstream inventory holding losses highlight execution and margin risks. Recurring outages or inventory losses reduce near-term cash flow and can erode expected project returns and downstream margin capture over the coming quarters.

Acquisition-Related Integration and Costs

The MEG acquisition increases integration complexity, near-term transaction costs and balance sheet strain. Incremental expenses (~$80M) and prior regulatory delays prolong realization of synergies while elevated net debt above $6B forces conservative capital allocation until deleveraging progresses.

Cenovus Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in Canada, the United States, and the Asia Pacific region. The company operates through Oil Sands, Conventional, Offshore, Canadian Manufacturing, U.S. Manufacturing, and Retail segments. The Oil Sands segment develops and produces bitumen and heavy oil in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan. This segments Foster Creek, Christina Lake, Sunrise, and Tucker oil sands projects, as well as Lloydminster thermal and conventional heavy oil assets The Conventional segment holds assets primarily located in Elmworth-Wapiti, Kaybob-Edson, Clearwater, and Rainbow Lake operating in Alberta and British Columbia, as well as interests in various natural gas processing facilities. The offshore segment engages in the exploration and development activities. The Canadian Manufacturing segment includes the owned and operated Lloydminster upgrading and asphalt refining complex, which upgrades heavy oil and bitumen into synthetic crude oil, diesel fuel, asphalt, and other ancillary products, as well as owns and operates the Bruderheim crude-by-rail terminal and two ethanol plants. The U.S. Manufacturing segment comprises the refining of crude oil to produce diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, asphalt, and other products. The Retail segment consists of marketing of its own and third-party refined petroleum products through retail, commercial, and bulk petroleum outlets, as well as wholesale channels. Cenovus Energy Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Cenovus Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates significant oil sands projects, which provide a stable source of production and cash flow. Additionally, Cenovus has refining operations that allow it to process crude oil into refined products, enhancing its profitability. Key revenue streams include sales of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products to various markets. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which enable shared resources and costs, further enhancing its earnings potential. Market conditions, including oil and gas prices, also significantly impact Cenovus's revenue, as fluctuations in commodity prices can directly influence profitability.

Cenovus Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cenovus Energy demonstrates stable financial performance with strong operational efficiency and a solid balance sheet. However, challenges in revenue growth and free cash flow generation could affect future financial flexibility. Continued focus on cost management and cash flow improvement is crucial.

Income Statement

Cenovus Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has maintained a positive net profit margin of 5.18% in TTM, despite a slight decline in revenue growth rate by 2.04%. The gross profit margin has decreased to 8.42% from previous years, indicating pressure on cost management. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 7.23% and 17.24%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is at 9.01%, showing a reasonable return for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 52.96%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some challenges, with a decline in free cash flow growth by 5.39% in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.36, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net income, which could impact future investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	50.56B	54.28B	52.20B	66.90B	46.36B	13.54B
Gross Profit	6.25B	5.63B	6.16B	11.36B	5.74B	-1.43B
EBITDA	9.25B	9.56B	10.23B	13.90B	6.66B	-238.00M
Net Income	3.14B	3.14B	4.11B	6.45B	587.00M	-2.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	53.57B	56.54B	53.91B	55.87B	54.10B	32.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.90B	3.09B	2.23B	4.52B	2.87B	378.00M
Total Debt	10.03B	10.63B	9.95B	11.64B	15.42B	9.32B
Total Liabilities	25.18B	26.77B	25.20B	28.28B	30.50B	16.06B
Stockholders Equity	28.37B	29.75B	28.70B	27.58B	23.60B	16.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.82B	4.22B	3.09B	7.64B	3.36B	-586.00M
Operating Cash Flow	7.85B	9.23B	7.39B	11.40B	5.92B	273.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.55B	-5.13B	-5.29B	-2.31B	-942.00M	-863.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.63B	-3.50B	-4.31B	-7.68B	-2.51B	837.00M

Cenovus Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 25.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CVE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.39, above the 50-day MA of 24.17, and above the 200-day MA of 21.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CVE.

Cenovus Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SU	77 Outperform	$83.02B	16.16	11.41%	3.91%	-3.08%	-31.48%
CVE	73 Outperform	C$47.37B	14.49	10.65%	3.40%	-9.17%	-12.97%
TOU	73 Outperform	C$22.85B	16.81	8.69%	4.79%	8.97%	-21.15%
IMO	72 Outperform	C$67.69B	17.42	16.52%	2.45%	-6.18%	-14.06%
PPL	70 Outperform	$31.43B	19.28	10.22%	5.44%	2.81%	-14.92%
TRP	70 Outperform	$79.51B	23.42	12.96%	4.41%	-3.98%	-33.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Cenovus Energy Corporate Events

Cenovus Energy Unveils 2026 Capital Budget and Growth Plans

Cenovus Energy has announced its 2026 capital budget and corporate guidance, outlining a capital investment plan between $5.0 billion and $5.3 billion, including $350 million for turnaround costs. The company anticipates upstream production growth of approximately 4% year-over-year, with a focus on ramping up volumes from projects at Foster Creek and West White Rose, and advancing expansion at Christina Lake North. The guidance reflects a strategic balance between growth investments and cost control, aiming to enhance shareholder returns while managing debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Completes $2.6 Billion Senior Notes Offering

Cenovus Energy Inc. has successfully closed a $2.6 billion offering of senior notes in Canada and the United States, which includes various unsecured notes with maturities ranging from 2031 to 2036. The proceeds from this offering will be used to refinance existing notes and for general corporate purposes, enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and potentially strengthening its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Buy with a C$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Announces $2.6 Billion Senior Notes Offering

Cenovus Energy Inc. has announced a $2.6 billion offering of senior unsecured notes, divided into Canadian and U.S. dollar denominations. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem existing senior notes and to fund general corporate purposes, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Buy with a C$30.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Completes Strategic Acquisition of MEG Energy

Cenovus Energy has completed its acquisition of MEG Energy Corp., enhancing its portfolio with high-quality, low-cost oil sands assets. This strategic move is expected to add 110,000 barrels per day to Cenovus’s production capacity and generate significant value through identified synergies, positioning the company for both immediate and long-term growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Buy with a C$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Developments

Cenovus Energy reported strong financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2025, with significant cash flow and record production levels. The company achieved record upstream production and downstream crude throughput, indicating robust operational performance. Key projects such as the Foster Creek optimization and West White Rose are nearing completion, which is expected to enhance production capabilities. Additionally, Cenovus completed the sale of its interest in WRB Refining LP and announced an acquisition agreement with MEG Energy Corp., signaling strategic growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Hold with a C$26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Amends MEG Acquisition Agreement and Announces Asset Sale

Cenovus Energy has amended its agreement to acquire MEG Energy, offering MEG shareholders the option to receive cash or Cenovus shares, with a total value of approximately $30 per MEG share. Additionally, Cenovus announced the sale of certain assets to Strathcona Resources for up to $150 million, which includes the Vawn thermal heavy oil asset and undeveloped lands, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025. These strategic moves are anticipated to enhance Cenovus’s market position and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Hold with a C$26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Postpones MEG Acquisition Vote to October 30

Cenovus Energy has postponed the special meeting for MEG Energy shareholders to vote on its proposed acquisition of MEG to October 30, 2025. The decision comes as 63% of MEG shares are currently in favor of the transaction, which requires a 66⅔% approval. The acquisition offers MEG shareholders a choice between cash or Cenovus shares, with the deal representing a 44% premium over MEG’s previous share price. This move is seen as a strategic effort by Cenovus to expand its operations and leverage synergies with MEG, potentially impacting stakeholders through increased value and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Buy with a C$32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Increases Stake in MEG Energy with Strategic Share Acquisition

Cenovus Energy has acquired an additional 3,276,460 common shares of MEG Energy Corp., bringing its total ownership to 25 million shares, or 9.8% of MEG’s outstanding shares. This acquisition supports a previously announced transaction with MEG, and Cenovus plans to vote its shares in favor of this transaction, indicating a strategic move to strengthen its position in the energy market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Buy with a C$32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Acquires 8.5% Stake in MEG Energy

Cenovus Energy has acquired 8.5% of MEG Energy’s common shares, totaling 21,723,540 shares, as part of its previously announced transaction with MEG. This acquisition allows Cenovus to potentially influence MEG’s future decisions and reflects its strategic move to strengthen its position in the energy sector. The company may adjust its ownership based on market conditions, indicating a flexible approach to its investment strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Buy with a C$32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.