Cenovus Energy (CVE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$33.92B
• Dividend Yield: 4.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.31
• Revenue Growth: 1.57%
• EPS Growth: -38.04%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 7,150
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 1,813,779,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 10,971,410
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,187,207
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$25.46
• Price Target Upside: 35.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: C$21.50 ▲(14.12%Upside)

Cenovus Energy's strong financial performance, especially in operational efficiency, and attractive valuation are significant strengths. Recent earnings call and corporate events reflect strategic growth and resilience, though challenges in downstream operations and free cash flow growth slightly temper the positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Cenovus Energy's upstream performance continues to deliver strong results.

Financial Health

Free cash flow was significantly above estimates, showcasing strong financial health.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

The company faces weak refining margins and additional costs from the Lima turnaround, impacting financial performance.

Operational Challenges

The company needs to address weak downstream performance and operational challenges to meet investor expectations.

Cenovus Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in Canada, the United States, and the Asia Pacific region. The company operates through Oil Sands, Conventional, Offshore, Canadian Manufacturing, U.S. Manufacturing, and Retail segments. The Oil Sands segment develops and produces bitumen and heavy oil in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan. This segments Foster Creek, Christina Lake, Sunrise, and Tucker oil sands projects, as well as Lloydminster thermal and conventional heavy oil assets The Conventional segment holds assets primarily located in Elmworth-Wapiti, Kaybob-Edson, Clearwater, and Rainbow Lake operating in Alberta and British Columbia, as well as interests in various natural gas processing facilities. The offshore segment engages in the exploration and development activities. The Canadian Manufacturing segment includes the owned and operated Lloydminster upgrading and asphalt refining complex, which upgrades heavy oil and bitumen into synthetic crude oil, diesel fuel, asphalt, and other ancillary products, as well as owns and operates the Bruderheim crude-by-rail terminal and two ethanol plants. The U.S. Manufacturing segment comprises the refining of crude oil to produce diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, asphalt, and other products. The Retail segment consists of marketing of its own and third-party refined petroleum products through retail, commercial, and bulk petroleum outlets, as well as wholesale channels. Cenovus Energy Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Cenovus Energy generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company's key revenue streams include its oil sands operations, conventional oil and gas production, and refining and marketing activities. Its oil sands projects, located in northern Alberta, are significant contributors to its earnings, utilizing advanced extraction technologies to produce bitumen. In addition, Cenovus benefits from its refining and marketing segment, which processes crude oil into refined products like gasoline and diesel, which are sold in various markets. The company's financial performance is also influenced by strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and market conditions affecting commodity prices. These elements combined contribute to a diversified revenue model that supports its growth and stability in the energy sector.

Cenovus Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cenovus Energy demonstrates strong operational efficiency with healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, and cash flow generation is solid despite a negative free cash flow growth. There is room for improvement in net profit margins and free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Cenovus Energy shows a strong gross profit margin of 16.93% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased slightly to 4.83% in TTM from 5.44% in the previous year, showing a need for improvement in net profitability. Revenue growth rate in TTM is modest at 1.40% compared to the previous year, reflecting stable but slow growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 7.86% and 15.85% respectively, showing good operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.36, which is relatively low, indicating a strong equity position compared to debt. ROE is 9.41% for TTM, reflecting moderate profitability from equity. The equity ratio is 53.27%, suggesting a solid equity buffer against liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates stability with manageable leverage.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow growth rate is negative at -18.79%, indicating reduced cash generation compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 3.05, showing strong cash flow generation compared to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.21, reflecting adequate conversion of net income into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	58.53B	57.73B	52.20B	71.77B	48.81B	13.59B
Gross Profit	9.91B	12.77B	6.16B	16.89B	9.11B	200.00M
EBITDA	9.28B	9.56B	10.23B	13.90B	6.66B	770.00M
Net Income	2.83B	3.14B	4.11B	6.45B	587.00M	-2.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	56.38B	56.54B	53.91B	55.87B	54.10B	32.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.77B	3.09B	2.23B	4.52B	2.87B	378.00M
Total Debt	10.77B	10.63B	9.95B	11.64B	15.42B	9.32B
Total Liabilities	26.33B	26.77B	25.20B	28.28B	30.50B	16.06B
Stockholders Equity	30.03B	29.75B	28.70B	27.58B	23.60B	16.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.43B	4.22B	3.09B	7.64B	3.36B	-586.00M
Operating Cash Flow	8.63B	9.23B	7.39B	11.40B	5.92B	273.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.34B	-5.13B	-5.29B	-2.31B	-942.00M	-863.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.12B	-3.50B	-4.31B	-7.68B	-2.51B	837.00M

Cenovus Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 18.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CVE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.04, above the 50-day MA of 18.10, and below the 200-day MA of 20.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.46 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:CVE.

Cenovus Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVE	76 Outperform	C$33.92B	12.34	9.50%	4.28%	1.57%	-38.04%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.89B	-0.96	-3.26%	6.24%	2.20%	-43.43%
IMO		$41.02B	11.95	20.61%	2.61%	―	―
PBA		$21.45B	16.66	11.55%	5.67%	―	―
SU		$46.88B	10.92	13.74%	4.39%	―	―
TOU	73 Outperform	C$24.84B	19.21	8.35%	9.34%	-8.29%	-30.52%
AETUF		$12.77B	13.26	17.25%	2.45%	―	―

Cenovus Energy Corporate Events

Cenovus Energy Resumes Full Production at Christina Lake Post-Wildfire

Cenovus Energy has successfully restored full production at its Christina Lake oil sands asset after a temporary halt due to nearby wildfires. The company confirmed no damage to its infrastructure and continues to prioritize the safety of its personnel and assets, acknowledging the efforts of emergency teams in safeguarding the community.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Sell with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy to Redeem Series 7 Preferred Shares

Cenovus Energy Inc. has announced the redemption of its 3.935% Series 7 Preferred Shares, effective June 30, 2025, at a price of $25.00 per share, totaling $150 million. This move, funded primarily from cash on hand, marks the final dividend payment for these shares and reflects Cenovus’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Sell with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Reports on Alberta Wildfire Impact

Cenovus Energy has provided an update on its Oil Sands operations in response to ongoing wildfires in northern Alberta. The company has ensured the safety of its staff and the integrity of its assets, with no reported damage to its infrastructure. As a precaution, production at the Christina Lake oil sands asset was methodically shut down, impacting approximately 238,000 barrels per day. Cenovus anticipates a full restart of operations once it is safe, and continues to monitor the wildfire situation closely, expressing gratitude to its teams and emergency services for their efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Sell with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Announces Shareholder Meeting Results and Leadership Changes

Cenovus Energy Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders where PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was reappointed as auditor, and 14 directors were elected, including new board member Chana Martineau. The meeting also marked a leadership transition with Alex Pourbaix moving to the role of non-independent Chair of the Board, while Claude Mongeau continues as Lead Independent Director. An advisory resolution on executive compensation was passed, reflecting shareholder approval of the company’s approach.

Cenovus Energy Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results and Increases Dividend

Cenovus Energy reported strong financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, with significant cash generation and increased upstream production. The company announced an 11% increase in its base dividend, reflecting its growth strategy and resilience at a US$45 WTI oil price. The company returned $595 million to shareholders and made progress on major upstream projects, positioning itself well to navigate market volatility and enhance shareholder returns.