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Cenovus Energy Inc (TSE:CVE)
TSX:CVE

Cenovus Energy (CVE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CVE

Cenovus Energy

(TSX:CVE)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
C$28.00
â–²(14.94% Upside)
Cenovus Energy's overall stock score reflects a strong operational performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly the MEG Energy acquisition. While financial performance shows stability, challenges in revenue growth and free cash flow generation remain. Technical indicators and recent corporate events further support a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Acquisition of MEG Energy
The acquisition of MEG Energy enhances Cenovus's portfolio with long-life, low-cost oil sands assets, boosting production capacity and strategic positioning.
Record Production Levels
Record production levels indicate strong operational capabilities and resource management, supporting long-term revenue growth and market competitiveness.
Strong Downstream Performance
High utilization rates in refining operations enhance profitability and demonstrate effective asset management, contributing to sustained cash flow.
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Challenges
Slowing revenue growth may limit Cenovus's ability to invest in new projects or weather market downturns, affecting long-term financial health.
Inventory Holding Losses
Inventory losses can erode profit margins and indicate potential inefficiencies in inventory management, impacting overall financial performance.
Production Challenges at Rush Lake
Production setbacks at Rush Lake could hinder output targets and revenue generation, affecting operational reliability and growth projections.

Cenovus Energy (CVE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Cenovus Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in Canada, the United States, and the Asia Pacific region. The company operates through Oil Sands, Conventional, Offshore, Canadian Manufacturing, U.S. Manufacturing, and Retail segments. The Oil Sands segment develops and produces bitumen and heavy oil in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan. This segments Foster Creek, Christina Lake, Sunrise, and Tucker oil sands projects, as well as Lloydminster thermal and conventional heavy oil assets The Conventional segment holds assets primarily located in Elmworth-Wapiti, Kaybob-Edson, Clearwater, and Rainbow Lake operating in Alberta and British Columbia, as well as interests in various natural gas processing facilities. The offshore segment engages in the exploration and development activities. The Canadian Manufacturing segment includes the owned and operated Lloydminster upgrading and asphalt refining complex, which upgrades heavy oil and bitumen into synthetic crude oil, diesel fuel, asphalt, and other ancillary products, as well as owns and operates the Bruderheim crude-by-rail terminal and two ethanol plants. The U.S. Manufacturing segment comprises the refining of crude oil to produce diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, asphalt, and other products. The Retail segment consists of marketing of its own and third-party refined petroleum products through retail, commercial, and bulk petroleum outlets, as well as wholesale channels. Cenovus Energy Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCenovus Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates significant oil sands projects, which provide a stable source of production and cash flow. Additionally, Cenovus has refining operations that allow it to process crude oil into refined products, enhancing its profitability. Key revenue streams include sales of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products to various markets. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which enable shared resources and costs, further enhancing its earnings potential. Market conditions, including oil and gas prices, also significantly impact Cenovus's revenue, as fluctuations in commodity prices can directly influence profitability.

Cenovus Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 31, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Cenovus Energy's record production levels and strong downstream performance, indicating a positive trajectory in operations. However, challenges such as the delay in the MEG acquisition vote and production issues at Rush Lake presented notable concerns. Overall, the positive aspects slightly outweighed the negatives, reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Upstream Production
Cenovus achieved its highest ever upstream production of 833,000 BOE per day, with oil sands assets contributing 643,000 barrels per day.
Strong Downstream Performance
The U.S. refining operations recorded a crude throughput of 605,000 barrels per day with a utilization rate of 99%, and Canadian refining achieved a utilization rate of 98%.
Successful Optimization at Foster Creek
Foster Creek achieved a production record of 215,000 barrels per day, aided by the quick implementation of 4 new steam generators.
West White Rose Project Progress
Nearly completed commissioning of the West White Rose project with drilling expected before year-end and first oil in the second quarter of 2026.
Improved Financial Metrics
Generated $3 billion of operating margin and approximately $2.5 billion of adjusted funds flow in the third quarter.
Negative Updates
Delayed MEG Acquisition Vote
The MEG shareholder vote was postponed due to a regulatory inquiry related to an amended transaction complaint by a former employee.
Production Challenges at Rush Lake
18,000 barrels of production from Rush Lake facilities remained shut in, affecting overall production metrics.
Inventory Holding Losses
The downstream business experienced $88 million in inventory holding losses, impacting the overall operating margin.
Lower Market Capture in Non-Operated Refining Assets
Market capture rates in non-operated refining assets were lower compared to operated ones, affecting overall performance metrics.
Company Guidance
During the Cenovus Energy Third Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, guidance was provided on several key metrics. Cenovus reported a record upstream production of 833,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, with oil sands assets contributing 643,000 barrels per day. Christina Lake production was 252,000 barrels per day, bolstered by the ramp-up from Narrows Lake. Foster Creek achieved a production record of 215,000 barrels per day, with new steam generators supporting higher output. Sunrise production was 52,000 barrels per day, expected to rise to 60,000 barrels by year-end. The Lloydminster Thermals produced 96,000 barrels per day despite some setbacks. The West White Rose project is nearing completion, with first oil anticipated by the second quarter of 2026. The downstream segment performed well, with Canadian refining achieving a utilization rate of 98% and U.S. refining achieving a record 605,000 barrels per day with a 99% utilization rate. Financially, Cenovus generated $3 billion in operating margin and $2.5 billion in adjusted funds flow, with a net debt of approximately $5.3 billion prior to receiving $1.8 billion from the WRB sale. Capital investments totaled $1.2 billion, and Cenovus returned $1.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. The acquisition of MEG Energy is expected to close in November, further enhancing Cenovus's growth trajectory.

Cenovus Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cenovus Energy demonstrates a stable financial position with moderate profitability and efficient operations. The income statement shows challenges in revenue growth, but the balance sheet is strong with low leverage. Cash flow generation is adequate, though recent declines in free cash flow growth warrant attention.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Cenovus Energy's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 4.38%, reflecting challenges in maintaining top-line growth. However, the company maintains a reasonable gross profit margin of 17.14% and a net profit margin of 4.78%, demonstrating some level of profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate at 6.91% and 15.94%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency but also room for improvement.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet is relatively strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating a conservative leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) is 9.01%, which is decent but shows a decline from previous years. The equity ratio stands at 52.67%, suggesting a solid equity base supporting the company's assets. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability with manageable debt levels.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 12.90% in the TTM period, which is a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.36, suggesting that a significant portion of earnings is converted into free cash flow, albeit with room for improvement.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue50.56B54.28B52.20B66.90B46.36B13.54B
Gross Profit6.25B5.63B6.16B11.36B5.74B-1.43B
EBITDA9.25B9.56B10.23B13.90B6.66B-238.00M
Net Income3.14B3.14B4.11B6.45B587.00M-2.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets53.57B56.54B53.91B55.87B54.10B32.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.90B3.09B2.23B4.52B2.87B378.00M
Total Debt10.03B10.63B9.95B11.64B15.42B9.32B
Total Liabilities25.18B26.77B25.20B28.28B30.50B16.06B
Stockholders Equity28.37B29.75B28.70B27.58B23.60B16.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.82B4.22B3.09B7.64B3.36B-586.00M
Operating Cash Flow7.85B9.23B7.39B11.40B5.92B273.00M
Investing Cash Flow-5.55B-5.13B-5.29B-2.31B-942.00M-863.00M
Financing Cash Flow-3.63B-3.50B-4.31B-7.68B-2.51B837.00M

Cenovus Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price24.36
Price Trends
50DMA
24.48
Negative
100DMA
23.25
Positive
200DMA
20.73
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Positive
RSI
44.70
Neutral
STOCH
18.12
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CVE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 24.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.07, below the 50-day MA of 24.48, and above the 200-day MA of 20.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:CVE.

Cenovus Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
C$73.22B14.2511.41%3.79%-3.08%-31.48%
73
Outperform
$46.62B14.2610.65%3.12%-9.17%-12.97%
73
Outperform
C$24.83B18.368.69%4.67%8.97%-21.15%
72
Outperform
$62.46B16.0716.52%2.27%-6.18%-14.06%
70
Outperform
$31.35B19.2310.22%5.11%2.81%-14.92%
70
Outperform
C$77.18B22.7312.96%4.51%-3.98%-33.45%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CVE
Cenovus Energy
24.36
3.75
18.22%
TSE:IMO
Imperial Oil
127.08
34.90
37.87%
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
53.93
2.71
5.29%
TSE:SU
Suncor Energy
60.98
11.47
23.16%
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
74.81
12.32
19.72%
TSE:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
63.13
3.88
6.55%

Cenovus Energy Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Cenovus Energy Completes $2.6 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Nov 20, 2025

Cenovus Energy Inc. has successfully closed a $2.6 billion offering of senior notes in Canada and the United States, which includes various unsecured notes with maturities ranging from 2031 to 2036. The proceeds from this offering will be used to refinance existing notes and for general corporate purposes, enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and potentially strengthening its market position.

Private Placements and Financing
Cenovus Energy Announces $2.6 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Nov 19, 2025

Cenovus Energy Inc. has announced a $2.6 billion offering of senior unsecured notes, divided into Canadian and U.S. dollar denominations. The proceeds from this offering will be used to redeem existing senior notes and to fund general corporate purposes, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and operational flexibility.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cenovus Energy Completes Strategic Acquisition of MEG Energy
Positive
Nov 13, 2025

Cenovus Energy has completed its acquisition of MEG Energy Corp., enhancing its portfolio with high-quality, low-cost oil sands assets. This strategic move is expected to add 110,000 barrels per day to Cenovus’s production capacity and generate significant value through identified synergies, positioning the company for both immediate and long-term growth.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cenovus Energy Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Developments
Positive
Oct 31, 2025

Cenovus Energy reported strong financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2025, with significant cash flow and record production levels. The company achieved record upstream production and downstream crude throughput, indicating robust operational performance. Key projects such as the Foster Creek optimization and West White Rose are nearing completion, which is expected to enhance production capabilities. Additionally, Cenovus completed the sale of its interest in WRB Refining LP and announced an acquisition agreement with MEG Energy Corp., signaling strategic growth initiatives.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cenovus Energy Amends MEG Acquisition Agreement and Announces Asset Sale
Positive
Oct 27, 2025

Cenovus Energy has amended its agreement to acquire MEG Energy, offering MEG shareholders the option to receive cash or Cenovus shares, with a total value of approximately $30 per MEG share. Additionally, Cenovus announced the sale of certain assets to Strathcona Resources for up to $150 million, which includes the Vawn thermal heavy oil asset and undeveloped lands, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025. These strategic moves are anticipated to enhance Cenovus’s market position and operational efficiency.

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Cenovus Energy Postpones MEG Acquisition Vote to October 30
Positive
Oct 21, 2025

Cenovus Energy has postponed the special meeting for MEG Energy shareholders to vote on its proposed acquisition of MEG to October 30, 2025. The decision comes as 63% of MEG shares are currently in favor of the transaction, which requires a 66⅔% approval. The acquisition offers MEG shareholders a choice between cash or Cenovus shares, with the deal representing a 44% premium over MEG’s previous share price. This move is seen as a strategic effort by Cenovus to expand its operations and leverage synergies with MEG, potentially impacting stakeholders through increased value and market positioning.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cenovus Energy Increases Stake in MEG Energy with Strategic Share Acquisition
Positive
Oct 15, 2025

Cenovus Energy has acquired an additional 3,276,460 common shares of MEG Energy Corp., bringing its total ownership to 25 million shares, or 9.8% of MEG’s outstanding shares. This acquisition supports a previously announced transaction with MEG, and Cenovus plans to vote its shares in favor of this transaction, indicating a strategic move to strengthen its position in the energy market.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cenovus Energy Acquires 8.5% Stake in MEG Energy
Neutral
Oct 14, 2025

Cenovus Energy has acquired 8.5% of MEG Energy’s common shares, totaling 21,723,540 shares, as part of its previously announced transaction with MEG. This acquisition allows Cenovus to potentially influence MEG’s future decisions and reflects its strategic move to strengthen its position in the energy sector. The company may adjust its ownership based on market conditions, indicating a flexible approach to its investment strategy.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cenovus Energy Enhances MEG Acquisition Offer Amid Record Production
Positive
Oct 8, 2025

Cenovus Energy has amended its agreement to acquire MEG Energy, increasing the offer to a mix of cash and shares, reflecting shareholder preferences for greater share consideration. This strategic move is expected to deliver superior value to MEG shareholders, with key regulatory approvals already secured. Additionally, Cenovus reported record production and throughput in its third-quarter results, highlighting strong operational performance and the successful sale of its interest in WRB Refining LP, which has bolstered its financial position.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cenovus Energy Highlights Superior MEG Transaction
Positive
Sep 19, 2025

Cenovus Energy has released a presentation detailing the advantages of its transaction with MEG Energy, which has been unanimously approved by MEG’s board. The transaction offers MEG shareholders a premium valuation with cash and Cenovus shares, providing certainty and the opportunity to benefit from Cenovus’s scale, experience, and diversified revenue streams. In contrast, Strathcona Resources’ offer is considered inferior due to its reliance on illiquid and overvalued shares, which may not align with MEG shareholders’ interests. This transaction is expected to enhance Cenovus’s industry positioning and provide significant value to stakeholders.

M&A TransactionsStock BuybackBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cenovus Energy Sells WRB Refining Stake to Phillips 66 for $1.4 Billion
Positive
Sep 9, 2025

Cenovus Energy has announced the sale of its 50% stake in WRB Refining LP to Phillips 66 for approximately US$1.4 billion. This strategic move will allow Cenovus to concentrate on assets it fully controls, enhancing its downstream operations’ focus and integration with its upstream heavy oil business. The proceeds from the sale will be used to reduce net debt and increase shareholder returns through share repurchases, reflecting a commitment to financial stability and rewarding investors.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 07, 2025