tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Cenovus Energy Inc (TSE:CVE)
TSX:CVE

Cenovus Energy (CVE) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
1,439 Followers

Top Page

TS

Cenovus Energy

(TSX:CVE)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$20.50
▲(11.96%Upside)
Cenovus Energy's strong operational and financial performance, along with attractive valuation metrics, are key strengths. Challenges with debt levels and downstream margins are being actively addressed, supporting a positive outlook. Mixed technical indicators suggest cautious optimism in the near term.
Positive Factors
Financial Health
Free cash flow was significantly above estimates, showcasing strong financial health.
Upstream Performance
Cenovus Energy's upstream performance continues to deliver strong results.
Negative Factors
Downstream Performance
The company needs to address weak downstream performance and operational challenges to meet investor expectations.
Refining Margins
The company faces weak refining margins and additional costs from the Lima turnaround, impacting financial performance.

Cenovus Energy (CVE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Cenovus Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCenovus Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in Canada, the United States, and the Asia Pacific region. The company operates through Oil Sands, Conventional, Offshore, Canadian Manufacturing, U.S. Manufacturing, and Retail segments. The Oil Sands segment develops and produces bitumen and heavy oil in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan. This segments Foster Creek, Christina Lake, Sunrise, and Tucker oil sands projects, as well as Lloydminster thermal and conventional heavy oil assets The Conventional segment holds assets primarily located in Elmworth-Wapiti, Kaybob-Edson, Clearwater, and Rainbow Lake operating in Alberta and British Columbia, as well as interests in various natural gas processing facilities. The offshore segment engages in the exploration and development activities. The Canadian Manufacturing segment includes the owned and operated Lloydminster upgrading and asphalt refining complex, which upgrades heavy oil and bitumen into synthetic crude oil, diesel fuel, asphalt, and other ancillary products, as well as owns and operates the Bruderheim crude-by-rail terminal and two ethanol plants. The U.S. Manufacturing segment comprises the refining of crude oil to produce diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, asphalt, and other products. The Retail segment consists of marketing of its own and third-party refined petroleum products through retail, commercial, and bulk petroleum outlets, as well as wholesale channels. Cenovus Energy Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCenovus Energy generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company's key revenue streams include its oil sands operations, conventional oil and gas production, and refining and marketing activities. Its oil sands projects, located in northern Alberta, are significant contributors to its earnings, utilizing advanced extraction technologies to produce bitumen. In addition, Cenovus benefits from its refining and marketing segment, which processes crude oil into refined products like gasoline and diesel, which are sold in various markets. The company's financial performance is also influenced by strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and market conditions affecting commodity prices. These elements combined contribute to a diversified revenue model that supports its growth and stability in the energy sector.

Cenovus Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 12.40%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Cenovus Energy reported strong operational and financial performance with significant production achievements and increased shareholder returns. However, the company faced challenges in the downstream segment with operating margin shortfalls and elevated net debt levels above their target, though these are being actively managed.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Safety Achievements
Cenovus reported over 27 million hours worked with a total recordable incident frequency of 0.18, highlighting exceptional safety performance.
Upstream Production Success
Upstream production reached 819,000 BOE per day, with significant contributions from Christina Lake and the completion of the Narrows Lake project.
Foster Creek Optimization
Foster Creek production reached 203,000 barrels per day due to new well pads and redevelopment programs. A turnaround was also successfully initiated.
Downstream Record Performance
Canadian refining performance was strong with a record quarterly throughput and utilization rate of 104%.
Financial Growth
Cenovus generated $2.8 billion in operating margin, with an 11% increase in the annual base dividend to $0.80 per share.
Debt Management
Net debt was reduced to $5.1 billion, with a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet while returning $595 million to shareholders.
Negative Updates
Downstream Operating Margin Shortfall
The downstream segment experienced an operating margin shortfall of approximately $240 million due to low Chicago crack spreads and tighter heavy oil differentials.
Turnaround Costs Impact
The downstream segment incurred $81 million in turnaround expenses, affecting operating margins.
Elevated Net Debt
Despite progress, net debt remains above the target of $4 billion, with priorities set to address this through excess free funds flow.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Cenovus Energy reported robust operational and financial performance with a focus on safety and strategic growth. Upstream production reached 819,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with Christina Lake contributing 238,000 barrels per day and the Narrows Lake project on track for first oil in the third quarter. Foster Creek produced 203,000 barrels per day and is undergoing a turnaround, with an expected increase of 30,000 barrels per day in production by early 2026. Sunrise averaged 52,000 barrels per day, with work commencing on new well pads. In the downstream sector, Canadian refining achieved a record utilization rate of 104%, while U.S. refining saw improvements in throughput and reliability. Financially, the company generated $2.8 billion in operating margin and $2.2 billion in adjusted funds flow, with oil sands non-fuel operating costs at $8.92 per barrel. The company also announced an 11% increase in its annual base dividend to $0.80 per share, reflecting confidence in long-term growth. Cenovus continues to focus on reducing costs and maintaining a strong balance sheet, with net debt at approximately $5.1 billion.

Cenovus Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cenovus Energy exhibits strong operational efficiency and stable financial health. While revenue growth is modest, operational margins remain strong. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage, and cash flow generation is strong despite a decline in free cash flow growth. The company is well-positioned, though it needs to focus on improving net profit margins and free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Cenovus Energy shows a strong gross profit margin of 16.93% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin decreased slightly to 4.83% in TTM from 5.44% in the previous year, showing a need for improvement in net profitability. Revenue growth rate in TTM is modest at 1.40% compared to the previous year, reflecting stable but slow growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 7.86% and 15.85% respectively, showing good operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.36, which is relatively low, indicating a strong equity position compared to debt. ROE is 9.41% for TTM, reflecting moderate profitability from equity. The equity ratio is 53.27%, suggesting a solid equity buffer against liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates stability with manageable leverage.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Free cash flow growth rate is negative at -18.79%, indicating reduced cash generation compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 3.05, showing strong cash flow generation compared to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.21, reflecting adequate conversion of net income into free cash flow.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
58.53B57.73B52.20B71.77B48.81B13.59B
Gross Profit
9.91B12.77B6.16B16.89B9.11B200.00M
EBIT
4.60B5.06B5.62B10.97B3.88B-2.17B
EBITDA
9.28B9.56B10.23B13.90B6.66B770.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.83B3.14B4.11B6.45B587.00M-2.38B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.23B3.09B2.23B4.52B2.87B378.00M
Total Assets
53.91B56.54B53.91B55.87B54.10B32.77B
Total Debt
9.95B10.63B9.95B11.64B15.42B9.32B
Net Debt
7.72B7.54B7.72B7.12B12.55B8.94B
Total Liabilities
25.20B26.77B25.20B28.28B30.50B16.06B
Stockholders Equity
28.70B29.75B28.70B27.58B23.60B16.71B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
3.43B4.22B3.09B7.64B3.36B-586.00M
Operating Cash Flow
8.63B9.23B7.39B11.40B5.92B273.00M
Investing Cash Flow
-5.34B-5.13B-5.29B-2.31B-942.00M-863.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-3.12B-3.50B-4.31B-7.68B-2.51B837.00M

Cenovus Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price18.31
Price Trends
50DMA
17.86
Positive
100DMA
19.16
Negative
200DMA
20.83
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.26
Positive
RSI
51.45
Neutral
STOCH
36.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CVE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.33, above the 50-day MA of 17.86, and below the 200-day MA of 20.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CVE.

Cenovus Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSCVE
76
Outperform
$33.21B12.089.50%3.93%1.57%-38.04%
57
Neutral
$7.14B3.05-3.47%5.74%0.77%-49.70%
IMIMO
$36.92B10.8320.61%2.54%
PBPBA
$21.78B17.0211.55%5.29%
SUSU
$44.91B10.5413.74%4.51%
TSTOU
73
Outperform
C$23.64B18.588.35%2.46%-8.29%-30.52%
$12.47B13.1317.25%2.48%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CVE
Cenovus Energy
18.31
-7.08
-27.88%
IMO
Imperial Oil
72.59
8.72
13.65%
PBA
Pembina Pipeline
37.96
3.10
8.89%
SU
Suncor Energy
36.65
0.17
0.47%
TSE:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
63.11
1.09
1.76%
AETUF
ARC Resources
21.36
3.80
21.64%

Cenovus Energy Corporate Events

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Cenovus Energy to Redeem Series 7 Preferred Shares
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Cenovus Energy Inc. has announced the redemption of its 3.935% Series 7 Preferred Shares, effective June 30, 2025, at a price of $25.00 per share, totaling $150 million. This move, funded primarily from cash on hand, marks the final dividend payment for these shares and reflects Cenovus’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Sell with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Cenovus Energy Reports on Alberta Wildfire Impact
Neutral
Jun 1, 2025

Cenovus Energy has provided an update on its Oil Sands operations in response to ongoing wildfires in northern Alberta. The company has ensured the safety of its staff and the integrity of its assets, with no reported damage to its infrastructure. As a precaution, production at the Christina Lake oil sands asset was methodically shut down, impacting approximately 238,000 barrels per day. Cenovus anticipates a full restart of operations once it is safe, and continues to monitor the wildfire situation closely, expressing gratitude to its teams and emergency services for their efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Sell with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Cenovus Energy Announces Shareholder Meeting Results and Leadership Changes
Neutral
May 9, 2025

Cenovus Energy Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders where PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP was reappointed as auditor, and 14 directors were elected, including new board member Chana Martineau. The meeting also marked a leadership transition with Alex Pourbaix moving to the role of non-independent Chair of the Board, while Claude Mongeau continues as Lead Independent Director. An advisory resolution on executive compensation was passed, reflecting shareholder approval of the company’s approach.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cenovus Energy Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results and Increases Dividend
Positive
May 8, 2025

Cenovus Energy reported strong financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, with significant cash generation and increased upstream production. The company announced an 11% increase in its base dividend, reflecting its growth strategy and resilience at a US$45 WTI oil price. The company returned $595 million to shareholders and made progress on major upstream projects, positioning itself well to navigate market volatility and enhance shareholder returns.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.