Cenovus Energy (CVE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $41.61B
• Dividend Yield: 4%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.36
• Revenue Growth: -7.82%
• EPS Growth: -42.65%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 7,150
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 1,799,751,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,426,139
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,215,283
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.68
• 1Y Price Target: $28.44
• Price Target Upside: 21.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$23.00 ▼(-1.63% Downside)

Cenovus Energy's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and attractive valuation metrics. The company's stable financial position and positive technical indicators further support the score. However, challenges in revenue growth and recent declines in free cash flow growth slightly temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

CVE's acquisition of MEG is viewed constructively, with MEG's Christina Lake providing operational efficiencies and expanding upstream Tier 1 oil sands production.

Cash Flow

The acquisition deal is expected to be accretive to cash flow per share and free cash flow per share in the coming years.

Financial Performance

Free cash flow was significantly above estimates, showcasing strong financial health.

Negative Factors

Debt Levels

The level of debt associated with the acquisition remains a focus for investors.

Downstream Performance

Investors are concerned about whether the US downstream segment is at a turning point.

Upstream Production

CVE’s upstream production guide was tempered due to outages.

Cenovus Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cenovus Energy Inc. is a Canadian integrated oil and natural gas company based in Calgary, Alberta. It operates in the upstream and downstream sectors of the oil and gas industry, focusing primarily on the production of oil sands and conventional oil and natural gas. The company is involved in the exploration, production, and processing of crude oil and natural gas, as well as refining and marketing petroleum products. Cenovus also emphasizes sustainable development and innovation in energy production and is committed to reducing its carbon footprint.

How the Company Makes Money

Cenovus Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. Its key revenue streams include the sale of oil and gas production, which is influenced by global commodity prices. The company also earns income from its refining and marketing operations, where it processes crude oil into gasoline and other products. Cenovus has entered into strategic partnerships and joint ventures, particularly in the oil sands sector, which allow it to share costs and resources while maximizing production efficiency. Additionally, the company benefits from long-term contracts and hedging strategies that help stabilize its revenue against market volatility.

Cenovus Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cenovus Energy demonstrates a stable financial position with moderate profitability and efficient operations. The income statement shows challenges in revenue growth, but the balance sheet is strong with low leverage. Cash flow generation is adequate, though recent declines in free cash flow growth warrant attention.

Income Statement

Cenovus Energy's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 4.38%, reflecting challenges in maintaining top-line growth. However, the company maintains a reasonable gross profit margin of 17.14% and a net profit margin of 4.78%, demonstrating some level of profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate at 6.91% and 15.94%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency but also room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating a conservative leverage position. The return on equity (ROE) is 9.01%, which is decent but shows a decline from previous years. The equity ratio stands at 52.67%, suggesting a solid equity base supporting the company's assets. Overall, the balance sheet reflects stability with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 12.90% in the TTM period, which is a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.36, suggesting that a significant portion of earnings is converted into free cash flow, albeit with room for improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	55.97B	57.73B	52.20B	71.77B	48.81B	13.59B
Gross Profit	9.59B	12.77B	6.16B	16.89B	9.11B	200.00M
EBITDA	8.92B	9.56B	10.23B	13.90B	6.66B	770.00M
Net Income	2.68B	3.14B	4.11B	6.45B	587.00M	-2.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	55.82B	56.54B	53.91B	55.87B	54.10B	32.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.56B	3.09B	2.23B	4.52B	2.87B	378.00M
Total Debt	10.49B	10.63B	9.95B	11.64B	15.42B	9.32B
Total Liabilities	26.40B	26.77B	25.20B	28.28B	30.50B	16.06B
Stockholders Equity	29.40B	29.75B	28.70B	27.58B	23.60B	16.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.98B	4.22B	3.09B	7.64B	3.36B	-586.00M
Operating Cash Flow	8.19B	9.23B	7.39B	11.40B	5.92B	273.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.54B	-5.13B	-5.29B	-2.31B	-942.00M	-863.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.29B	-3.50B	-4.31B	-7.68B	-2.51B	837.00M

Cenovus Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 23.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CVE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.13, above the 50-day MA of 20.18, and above the 200-day MA of 19.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.50 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.45 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CVE.

Cenovus Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CVE	75 Outperform	$41.61B	15.94	8.83%	4.00%	-7.82%	-42.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.47B	7.30	3.02%	5.25%	4.27%	-62.52%
IMO	―	$44.68B	13.51	18.80%	2.10%	―	―
PBA	―	$21.83B	17.60	10.69%	5.31%	―	―
SU	―	$48.86B	12.32	12.46%	3.94%	―	―
TOU	73 Outperform	C$22.43B	14.31	9.76%	5.21%	3.86%	-5.32%
AETUF	―	$11.05B	10.37	18.43%	2.78%	―	―

Cenovus Energy Corporate Events

Cenovus Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Strategic Advancements

Cenovus Energy reported its second-quarter 2025 results, highlighting $2.4 billion in cash from operating activities and a total upstream production of 765,900 BOE/d, impacted by planned maintenance and wildfires. Key achievements include the first oil at Narrows Lake, progress on the West White Rose project, and successful turnarounds at multiple facilities. The company returned $819 million to shareholders and anticipates increased free funds flow as growth projects near completion.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Sell with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Resumes Full Production at Christina Lake Post-Wildfire

Cenovus Energy has successfully restored full production at its Christina Lake oil sands asset after a temporary halt due to nearby wildfires. The company confirmed no damage to its infrastructure and continues to prioritize the safety of its personnel and assets, acknowledging the efforts of emergency teams in safeguarding the community.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Sell with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy to Redeem Series 7 Preferred Shares

Cenovus Energy Inc. has announced the redemption of its 3.935% Series 7 Preferred Shares, effective June 30, 2025, at a price of $25.00 per share, totaling $150 million. This move, funded primarily from cash on hand, marks the final dividend payment for these shares and reflects Cenovus’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Sell with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.

Cenovus Energy Reports on Alberta Wildfire Impact

Cenovus Energy has provided an update on its Oil Sands operations in response to ongoing wildfires in northern Alberta. The company has ensured the safety of its staff and the integrity of its assets, with no reported damage to its infrastructure. As a precaution, production at the Christina Lake oil sands asset was methodically shut down, impacting approximately 238,000 barrels per day. Cenovus anticipates a full restart of operations once it is safe, and continues to monitor the wildfire situation closely, expressing gratitude to its teams and emergency services for their efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CVE) stock is a Sell with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cenovus Energy stock, see the TSE:CVE Stock Forecast page.