Tourmaline Oil (TOU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$24.23B
• Dividend Yield: 4.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: 8.97%
• EPS Growth: -21.15%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 458
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.49
• Shares Outstanding: 387,010,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,082,569
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,090,408
• PEG Ratio: -0.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.45
• P/FCF Ratio: 50.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$71.62
• Price Target Upside: 13.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: C$69.00 ▲(9.23% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial quality (high margins, robust operating cash flow, and low leverage), supported by constructive earnings-call guidance and shareholder returns. The main offsets are weak free-cash-flow conversion and a mixed/soft near-term technical picture (negative MACD and price below the 20-day average), with valuation appearing reasonable rather than clearly cheap.

Positive Factors

Record Production Levels

Record production levels and increased reserves indicate strong operational capabilities and resource management, enhancing long-term growth potential.

Dividend Increase

The significant dividend increase demonstrates strong cash flow and a commitment to returning value to shareholders, reinforcing investor confidence.

Financial Stability

A low debt-to-equity ratio underscores prudent financial management, ensuring stability and flexibility for future investments and growth.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Variability

Inconsistent revenue growth poses risks to future profitability, potentially impacting long-term strategic planning and market positioning.

Declining Free Cash Flow Growth

A declining free cash flow growth rate may limit the company's ability to fund expansions or increase dividends, affecting long-term financial health.

Earnings Decline

Revenue decline, despite stable margins, indicates potential challenges in market demand or pricing power, affecting future earnings potential.

Tourmaline Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tourmaline Oil Corp. is a Canadian energy company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, the company operates within the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, focusing on producing high-quality natural gas and crude oil. Tourmaline is one of the largest natural gas producers in Canada and emphasizes sustainable practices, efficiency, and technological innovation in its operations.

How the Company Makes Money

Tourmaline Oil Corp. generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of natural gas and crude oil. The company's key revenue streams include the extraction and sale of these resources to domestic and international markets. Tourmaline benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales, which provide flexibility and pricing advantages. Additionally, the company invests in infrastructure such as gas processing facilities and pipelines, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships also play a significant role in expanding its asset base and increasing production capacity, contributing to its overall earnings.

Tourmaline Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability (TTM ~40.5% gross margin, ~27.6% net margin) and robust operating cash flow (~C$3.35B; ~1.46x net income) support a solid score. Offsetting this, free cash flow conversion is weak (TTM FCF ~C$0.41B, ~12% of net income) and down YoY, indicating higher capex and/or less favorable commodity conditions despite a very low leverage profile (debt-to-equity ~0.11).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue grew ~9.6% versus the prior period, and profitability remains strong with ~40.5% gross margin and ~27.6% net margin. However, earnings quality has softened versus prior peak years: margins and net income are below 2021–2023 levels, and results show meaningful cyclicality typical of the commodity-driven E&P backdrop.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity is ~0.11 with equity of ~C$16.4B supporting ~C$23.7B of assets. Returns on equity are solid (~8.3% TTM), though well below the outsized 2022 level, reflecting normalization in profitability and a higher debt load versus 2021–2024.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong at the operating level (TTM operating cash flow ~C$3.35B and operating cash flow meaningfully exceeds net income at ~1.46x). The weak spot is free cash flow conversion: TTM free cash flow is ~C$0.41B (only ~12% of net income) and is down ~23.8% year over year, a notable step-down from 2022–2023 when free cash flow was substantially higher.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.81B	4.35B	4.84B	7.10B	4.77B	2.22B
Gross Profit	1.95B	2.20B	2.95B	5.37B	3.43B	1.31B
EBITDA	3.33B	3.16B	3.34B	7.08B	2.83B	1.20B
Net Income	1.33B	1.26B	1.74B	4.49B	2.03B	618.31M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	23.74B	22.70B	20.48B	19.04B	16.16B	13.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	220.17M
Total Debt	1.78B	1.30B	1.13B	629.26M	880.74M	1.95B
Total Liabilities	7.37B	7.15B	6.47B	5.35B	4.55B	4.45B
Stockholders Equity	16.38B	15.54B	14.02B	13.69B	11.61B	8.81B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	412.85M	470.63M	1.67B	2.74B	864.19M	47.91M
Operating Cash Flow	3.35B	2.73B	4.41B	4.69B	2.85B	1.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.33B	-1.64B	-2.60B	-1.97B	-1.38B	-1.16B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.02B	-1.09B	-1.80B	-2.72B	-1.69B	257.30M

Tourmaline Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 63.17
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.06, above the 50-day MA of 61.60, and above the 200-day MA of 60.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TOU.

Tourmaline Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PEY	81 Outperform	C$5.21B	13.36	13.48%	5.77%	11.52%	24.76%
ARX	74 Outperform	C$15.09B	10.67	17.02%	2.95%	15.61%	12.15%
TOU	73 Outperform	C$24.23B	17.33	8.69%	4.79%	8.97%	-21.15%
BIR	70 Neutral	C$2.01B	26.41	3.16%	1.59%	-9.76%	374.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
KEL	61 Neutral	C$1.60B	27.40	5.22%	―	9.92%	2.74%
AAV	58 Neutral	C$1.84B	30.41	3.69%	―	27.84%	28.87%

Tourmaline Oil Corporate Events

Tourmaline Oil Reports Strong Q3 Growth and Strategic Initiatives

Tourmaline Oil Corp. reported strong financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighted by a 4% increase in liquids production and a special dividend declaration. The company has secured a long-term natural gas storage agreement with AltaGas and entered into new LNG contracts, which are expected to enhance its market positioning and operational flexibility. Additionally, Tourmaline is considering the sale of its Peace River High complex to reinvest in higher return assets, which could lower operating costs. Despite challenges from low natural gas prices, the company anticipates improved financial performance in 2026 due to increased LNG demand and higher AECO pricing.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TOU) stock is a Buy with a C$80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tourmaline Oil stock, see the TSE:TOU Stock Forecast page.