Tourmaline Oil (TOU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$24.68B
• Dividend Yield: 2.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.17M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.74
• Revenue Growth: -8.29%
• EPS Growth: -30.52%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 458
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 54
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.56
• Shares Outstanding: 386,744,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,682,473
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,174,477
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$76.06
• Price Target Upside: 15.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

Tourmaline Oil's stock is bolstered by robust financial health and positive corporate events, such as record production and increased dividends, showcasing strong operational and strategic positioning. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to a bearish trend, which slightly detracts from the overall score. Valuation is reasonable, adding to the stock's appeal as a solid investment option.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

Tourmaline announced it has purchased another two Montney producers that will add ~20 mboe/d.

Dividend Increase

The company hiked its base dividend by 43% based on expectations for improving profitability.

Market Strategy

Tourmaline's marketing and diversification program provided a realized natural gas price that was significantly higher than AECO.

Negative Factors

Capital Expenditure

Tourmaline plans to defer some planned frac activity from Q2/25 into Q3/25 due to the weakness in Station 2 pricing.

Cash Flow

Tourmaline reported Q4/24 cash flow results that fell short of consensus on slightly lower production.

Financial Performance

Tourmaline announced weaker-than-expected CFPS results despite production coming in higher than expected.

Tourmaline Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tourmaline Oil Corp. acquires, explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas properties in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. It holds interests in properties located in the Alberta Deep Basin, Northeast British Columbia Montney, and the Peace River High Triassic oil complex. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Tourmaline Oil Corp. generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of natural gas and crude oil. The company's key revenue streams include the extraction and sale of these resources to domestic and international markets. Tourmaline benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales, which provide flexibility and pricing advantages. Additionally, the company invests in infrastructure such as gas processing facilities and pipelines, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships also play a significant role in expanding its asset base and increasing production capacity, contributing to its overall earnings.

Tourmaline Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tourmaline Oil demonstrates a commendable financial performance with strengths in profitability and financial stability. The company has effectively managed its operating margins and maintained a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, variability in revenue growth and free cash flow generation indicates areas for potential improvement.

Income Statement

Tourmaline Oil's income statement shows a strong gross profit margin and net profit margin, indicative of effective cost management and profitability. Despite a decline in revenue from 2022 to 2023, the company maintained stable EBIT and EBITDA margins, demonstrating operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has been inconsistent, with significant fluctuations over recent years, posing potential risks to future profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio, underscoring prudent financial leverage. A strong equity ratio indicates a robust balance sheet foundation. Return on equity remains solid, suggesting effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. Overall, Tourmaline Oil exhibits a stable financial structure, with limited risk from high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows Tourmaline Oil has positive free cash flow, albeit with a declining growth rate, which may impact its ability to fund expansions or pay dividends. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in converting earnings to free cash flow.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
5.91B	5.65B	4.84B	8.68B	5.12B	2.14B
	Gross Profit
3.71B	3.52B	4.27B	6.33B	3.84B	892.18M
	EBIT
1.74B	1.78B	2.24B	5.96B	2.59B	-13.59M
	EBITDA
3.31B	3.29B	3.53B	7.12B	3.42B	1.81B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.23B	1.26B	1.74B	4.49B	2.03B	618.31M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
0.00	0.00	719.54M	-10.15M	-11.17M	220.17M
	Total Assets
22.41B	22.31B	20.10B	18.89B	15.29B	12.79B
	Total Debt
1.22B	1.30B	1.13B	629.26M	880.74M	1.95B
	Net Debt
1.22B	1.30B	1.13B	639.42M	891.91M	1.73B
	Total Liabilities
6.91B	6.77B	6.08B	5.21B	3.69B	3.51B
	Stockholders Equity
15.49B	15.54B	14.02B	13.69B	11.61B	8.81B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
654.02M	470.63M	1.67B	2.74B	864.19M	47.91M
	Operating Cash Flow
3.18B	2.73B	4.41B	4.69B	2.85B	1.13B
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.77B	-1.64B	-2.60B	-1.97B	-1.38B	-1.16B
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.41B	-1.09B	-1.80B	-2.72B	-1.69B	257.30M

Tourmaline Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 65.89
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.81, above the 50-day MA of 62.58, and above the 200-day MA of 63.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TOU.

Tourmaline Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TOU	73 Outperform	C$24.68B	18.79	8.35%	2.15%	-8.29%	-30.52%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.43B	3.43	-4.49%	10.08%	0.81%	-49.42%
SPGYF		$7.97B	5.81	16.40%	7.96%	―	―
PRMRF		$2.19B	2.03	48.97%	2.80%	―	―
NUVSF		$2.21B	8.34	16.78%	―	―	―
AETUF		$12.53B	13.08	17.25%	2.42%	―	―
SCR	77 Outperform	C$6.73B	9.49	12.43%	3.31%	796.07%	-35.52%

Tourmaline Oil Corporate Events

Tourmaline Oil Reports Record Production and Dividend Increase

Tourmaline Oil Corp. announced record production levels and an increase in 2P reserves to 5.5 billion BOE for 2024. The company reported a substantial increase in cash flow and net earnings, with a forecasted free cash flow of $1.4 billion for 2025. Tourmaline also declared a 43% increase in its base dividend and a special dividend, highlighting its strong financial performance and commitment to enhancing shareholder value. The anticipated production for the first quarter of 2025 is set between 630,000-635,000 boepd, positioning the company for continued growth and stability in the market.