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Tourmaline Oil
(TSX:TOU)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$71.00
▲(18.75% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/05/26
The score is primarily supported by financial durability—conservative leverage and solid operating cash generation—reducing downside risk. This is tempered by cyclical and currently lower profitability/returns versus peak years, plus only modest near-term technical momentum. Valuation is a headwind due to a high P/E, partially offset by an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative leverage
Very low TTM debt-to-equity (~0.07) gives durable financial flexibility. Low leverage reduces interest burden and bankruptcy risk through commodity cycles, supports capital allocation for sustaining capex, dividends or opportunistic M&A, and preserves liquidity for multi-quarter stress periods.
Negative Factors
Cyclical, volatile profitability
Margins and profitability have swung materially across cycles; current TTM margins improved versus 2025 but remain well below peak years. This cyclicality makes multi‑period earnings and return forecasts uncertain, complicating capital allocation and long‑term cash‑flow visibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative leverage
Very low TTM debt-to-equity (~0.07) gives durable financial flexibility. Low leverage reduces interest burden and bankruptcy risk through commodity cycles, supports capital allocation for sustaining capex, dividends or opportunistic M&A, and preserves liquidity for multi-quarter stress periods.
Read all positive factors
Tourmaline Oil (TOU) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$23.36B
Dividend Yield4.79%
Average Volume (3M)3.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.8
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth7.06%
EPS Growth-45.27%
CountryCA
Employees458
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.86
Shares Outstanding388,305,970
10 Day Avg. Volume5,144,296
30 Day Avg. Volume3,130,540
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.52
Price to Sales (P/S)4.04
P/FCF Ratio61.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$69.10Price Target Upside15.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)5.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$6.98B
Tourmaline Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tourmaline Oil Corp. is an energy firm focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas deposits. Its operations are primarily situated within the vast Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The compan...
How the Company Makes Money
Tourmaline makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons—natural gas, NGLs (e.g., propane, butane, and condensate), and crude oil/condensate—into North American markets. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are delivered to pur...
Tourmaline Oil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution (record production, significant reserve additions, industry-leading drilling activity and improved well performance), meaningful cost and capital discipline (OpEx reductions, CapEx cuts, $765M asset sale used to reduce debt and fund BC build-out) and strategic enhancements (hedges, gas storage, MIQ certification, frac sand integration). Near-term challenges are dominated by weak AECO and West Coast pricing, a ~50,000 BOE/day reduction in pro forma production from the asset sale and ethane termination, and a one-time reserve cost recalibration that increased reported 2P F&D. Overall, positives (production, reserves, debt reduction, cost progress and strategic positioning) materially outweigh the near-term price-driven constraints and one-time accounting impacts.Positive Updates
Record Production and Strong Start to 2026
Q4 2025 delivered record corporate production and January 2026 averaged over 685,000 BOE/day (prior to the Peace River High sale). Q4 2025 record liquids production averaged 152,673 bbl/day.
Negative Updates
Weak Western Canadian and West Coast Gas Prices Constraining Free Cash Flow
Unusually weak AECO and PG&E pricing this winter materially limited free cash flow and constrained the ability to pay a special Q1 dividend. AECO was as low as ~$1.60 and PG&E experienced atypical weakness, reducing realized margins despite other strengths. Management disclosed sensitivity: every CAD $0.10/Mcf AECO ≈ $45M change in 2026 cash flow; every $1/Mcf move in JKM/TTF ≈ $50M in 2026 and $70M in 2027.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Strong Start to 2026
Q4 2025 delivered record corporate production and January 2026 averaged over 685,000 BOE/day (prior to the Peace River High sale). Q4 2025 record liquids production averaged 152,673 bbl/day.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Tourmaline guided to a lower‑risk, debt‑focused 2026 plan: EP CapEx was cut $350M to $2.55B (plus a $50M non‑EP cut; total CapEx reduction $400M) with an additional $200M of D&C deferrals available; at strip the company expects 2026 cash flow of $3.4B and free cash flow of a little over $0.7B. Operational guidance includes 2026 OpEx of $4.50/BOE (Q4’25 OpEx was $4.66/BOE, down from $5.14/H1’25), a permanent net‑debt reduction ($500M of the $765M Peace River High sale proceeds applied to debt) leaving YE‑25 net debt of $1.5B (down from $2.3B in Q3 and ~0.5x forecasted 2026 cash flow; long‑term net‑debt target $1.75B). Product and portfolio moves: full‑year production will be ~50,000 BOE/d lower (including ~20,000 bbl/d ethane) after the sale and ethane rejection, Q4 liquids were 152,673 bbl/d and Jan‑26 averaged >685,000 BOE/d pre‑sale, and 2025 2P additions were 829M BOE (457M organic) taking 2P >6B BOE (27.7 Tcf gas; ~1.5B bbl condensate/NGL); hedges of ~880 MMcf/d at CAD 4.54/Mcf and storage capacity rising to 6 Bcf in Apr‑26 (10 Bcf mid‑27); dividend base $0.50/share; sensitivities: ~$45M per US$0.10/Mcf AECO and ~$50M/$70M per US$1 TTF/JKM move for 2026/2027 respectively.Tourmaline Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.53B | 5.82B | 4.35B | 4.84B | 7.10B | 4.77B |
| Gross Profit | 406.87M | 321.04M | 2.20B | 2.95B | 5.37B | 3.43B |
| EBITDA | 3.91B | 3.45B | 3.16B | 3.34B | 7.08B | 2.83B |
| Net Income | 707.55M | 262.67M | 1.26B | 1.74B | 4.49B | 2.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 23.06B | 22.87B | 22.70B | 20.48B | 19.04B | 16.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 1.14B | 1.89B | 1.30B | 1.13B | 629.26M | 880.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.10B | 7.43B | 7.15B | 6.47B | 5.35B | 4.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.96B | 15.44B | 15.54B | 14.02B | 13.69B | 11.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 397.48M | 379.12M | 470.63M | 1.67B | 2.74B | 864.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.24B | 3.39B | 2.73B | 4.41B | 4.69B | 2.85B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.05B | -2.73B | -1.64B | -2.60B | -1.97B | -1.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.19B | -653.49M | -1.09B | -1.80B | -2.72B | -1.69B |
Tourmaline Oil Technical Analysis
Negative
59.79
Price Trends
63.25
Negative
63.31
Negative
61.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.11
Positive
37.98
Neutral
38.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 59.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.06, below the 50-day MA of 63.25, and below the 200-day MA of 61.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TOU.
Tourmaline Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$4.98B | 10.21 | 16.78% | 5.77% | 29.94% | 57.11% | |
77 Outperform | C$16.78B | 11.74 | 17.43% | 2.95% | 17.91% | 11.40% | |
67 Neutral | C$23.36B | 31.83 | 4.40% | 4.79% | 7.06% | -45.27% | |
67 Neutral | C$1.73B | 25.76 | 3.07% | 1.59% | 11.96% | -50.40% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
61 Neutral | C$1.70B | 15.42 | 6.59% | ― | 11.26% | ― | |
59 Neutral | C$1.75B | 39.31 | 3.96% | ― | 14.75% | -15.94% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
59.21
-3.79
-6.02%
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Tourmaline Oil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Tourmaline to Issue $250 Million in Senior Unsecured Notes to Refinance Debt
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Tourmaline Oil Corp. has agreed to issue $250 million of senior unsecured notes due March 16, 2031, at par with a fixed annual coupon of 3.934%, payable semi-annually. The notes, rated BBB (High) with a stable trend by DBRS Limited, will be offere...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.