Kelt Exploration (TSE:KEL)
TSX:KEL
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Kelt Exploration
(TSX:KEL)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
C$9.00
▲(10.57% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by a mixed financial profile—strong operating generation and low leverage but weaker profitability versus prior peaks and negative free cash flow—offset by solid uptrend technicals. Valuation is the largest drag due to the extremely high P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
High EBITDA Margin
A sustained EBITDA margin near 55% indicates strong field-level cash generation from core production. This durable operating profitability supports reinvestment in drilling, funds midstream and operating needs, and provides a buffer against commodity swings for 2–6+ months of planning and execution.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
Persistent negative free cash flow means capital expenditures outstrip operating cash after sustaining capex, constraining debt paydown and shareholder returns. Over months this limits strategic optionality and forces reliance on financing or asset sales if commodity prices or cash inflows weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High EBITDA Margin
A sustained EBITDA margin near 55% indicates strong field-level cash generation from core production. This durable operating profitability supports reinvestment in drilling, funds midstream and operating needs, and provides a buffer against commodity swings for 2–6+ months of planning and execution.
Read all positive factors
Kelt Exploration (KEL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.75B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)437.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.9
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth14.75%
EPS Growth-15.94%
CountryCA
Employees77
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding202,787,230
10 Day Avg. Volume578,473
30 Day Avg. Volume437,174
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)3.27
P/FCF Ratio-31.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$11.60Price Target Upside42.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$779.89M
Kelt Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kelt Exploration Ltd. operates as an energy company, concentrating its efforts on the discovery, development, and extraction of crude oil and natural gas reserves. Its primary operational areas are situated in Canada, specifically in northwestern ...
How the Company Makes Money
Kelt primarily makes money by producing crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from its Western Canadian properties and selling those commodities to third-party purchasers (e.g., marketers, refiners, and midstream counterparties) a...
Kelt Exploration Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
77
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 512.69M | 466.99M | 468.43M | 436.41M | 613.36M | 316.76M |
| Gross Profit | 100.80M | 71.85M | 134.48M | 141.51M | 308.60M | 121.85M |
| EBITDA | 284.65M | 237.38M | 208.32M | 241.60M | 330.29M | 229.39M |
| Net Income | 44.77M | 63.06M | 45.42M | 85.97M | 158.76M | 114.26M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.67B | 1.60B | 1.45B | 1.26B | 1.13B | 913.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 632.00K | 90.00K | 228.00K | 14.34M | 125.00K | 719.00K |
| Total Debt | 147.74M | 180.88M | 111.07M | 1.46M | 12.35M | 2.16M |
| Total Liabilities | 517.10M | 460.88M | 387.68M | 256.63M | 226.68M | 190.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.15B | 1.14B | 1.06B | 1.00B | 901.42M | 722.72M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.74M | -49.15M | -124.00M | 630.00K | -11.56M | -62.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 267.03M | 264.26M | 209.15M | 283.22M | 306.02M | 159.71M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -320.31M | -340.57M | -336.57M | -265.49M | -328.94M | -191.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 53.82M | 76.18M | 113.31M | -3.52M | 22.33M | 973.00K |
Kelt Exploration Technical Analysis
Negative
8.14
Price Trends
9.45
Negative
9.10
Negative
8.18
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.27
Positive
36.80
Neutral
14.86
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.40, below the 50-day MA of 9.45, and below the 200-day MA of 8.18, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:KEL.
Kelt Exploration Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | C$2.12B | 8.36 | 9.34% | 8.48% | -14.73% | 123.98% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$1.92B | 193.27 | 1.14% | 8.25% | -8.46% | -91.52% | |
62 Neutral | C$2.27B | 36.30 | 9.84% | ― | 54.45% | 189.64% | |
61 Neutral | C$1.70B | 15.20 | 6.59% | ― | 11.26% | ― | |
59 Neutral | C$1.75B | 38.85 | 3.96% | ― | 14.75% | -15.94% | |
53 Neutral | C$2.02B | -2.46 | -33.68% | 4.60% | -7.04% | -2448.68% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:KEL
Kelt Exploration
8.61
1.27
17.30%
TSE:AAV
Advantage Energy
10.15
-1.68
-14.20%
TSE:VET
Vermilion Energy
13.16
3.60
37.67%
TSE:PXT
Parex Resources
22.05
9.11
70.39%
TSE:CJ
Cardinal Energy
10.92
4.65
74.27%
TSE:SDE
Spartan Delta
11.21
7.40
194.23%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.