Kelt Exploration (KEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.46B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 367.75K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 0.73%
• EPS Growth: -36.49%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 77
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 198,994,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 384,718
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 367,752
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -82.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$9.34
• Price Target Upside: 27.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$8.00 ▲(9.14%Upside)

Kelt Exploration's overall score is driven by strong corporate events showcasing robust production and financial growth in recent quarters. Financial performance is stable but challenged by negative free cash flow and declining revenues. Technical analysis is favorable, although high valuation metrics and overbought signals pose caution.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow

Quarterly cash flow highlighted a beat on estimates, which is encouraging given third-party plant delays.

Financial Performance

2025 guidance details slightly lower spending, higher-than-expected production growth for 2025, and lower costs, setting the stage for a productive, 'value-creating' year.

Production Growth

The company should see among the highest production growth into late 2026, possibly doubling its output.

Negative Factors

Acquisitions

For every dollar spent on acquisitions, there was a loss of $0.52 in value due to changes in reserve evaluators.

Kelt Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kelt Exploration Ltd. is a Canadian oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Kelt operates primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, focusing on areas with rich resource potential. The company's operations are concentrated on the Montney and Charlie Lake formations, where it employs advanced drilling and completion technologies to optimize production and recovery rates.

How the Company Makes Money

Kelt Exploration generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its exploration and production activities. The company leverages its expertise in geological assessment and technological innovation to efficiently extract resources from its leased land holdings. Revenue streams for Kelt are influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. The company also engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks and stabilize cash flows. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other industry players can also play a role in optimizing operations and expanding market access, thereby contributing to the company's financial performance.

Kelt Exploration Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kelt Exploration shows robust operational efficiency with strong EBITDA margins and a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, declining revenues and negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures pose challenges, impacting its financial health.

Income Statement

Kelt Exploration's income statement shows a stable gross profit margin of approximately 26% and a moderate net profit margin of around 11% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the company has experienced a decline in revenue from $468 million in 2024 to $467 million in TTM, indicating a slight revenue contraction. The EBIT margin is 15% and EBITDA margin stands strong at 47%, demonstrating good operational efficiency despite the revenue decline.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 72% for TTM, highlighting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.10, suggesting prudent financial leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is modest at 5%, indicating moderate profitability relative to shareholder equity. Overall, the balance sheet suggests a stable financial position with low leverage risk.

Cash Flow

Kelt Exploration's cash flow statement shows a challenging scenario with negative free cash flow of -$124 million for TTM due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 4.44, indicating strong cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting the high investment activities affecting cash reserves.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	467.30M	468.43M	436.41M	613.36M	316.76M	207.16M
Gross Profit	122.05M	134.48M	141.51M	308.60M	121.85M	-348.07M
EBITDA	222.30M	208.32M	241.60M	330.29M	229.39M	-282.45M
Net Income	52.55M	45.42M	85.97M	158.76M	114.26M	-324.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.51B	1.45B	1.26B	1.13B	913.50M	759.99M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	89.00K	228.00K	14.34M	125.00K	719.00K	31.57M
Total Debt	104.92M	111.07M	1.46M	12.35M	2.16M	1.46M
Total Liabilities	426.49M	387.68M	256.63M	226.68M	190.77M	156.30M
Stockholders Equity	1.09B	1.06B	1.00B	901.42M	722.72M	603.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-124.03M	-124.00M	630.00K	-11.56M	-62.65M	-92.83M
Operating Cash Flow	233.58M	209.15M	283.22M	306.02M	159.71M	59.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-342.94M	-336.57M	-265.49M	-328.94M	-191.54M	326.61M
Financing Cash Flow	108.01M	113.31M	-3.52M	22.33M	973.00K	-362.68M

Kelt Exploration Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.33
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.26, above the 50-day MA of 6.61, and above the 200-day MA of 6.56, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEL.

Kelt Exploration Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWX	81 Outperform	$1.64B	8.15	29.87%	6.39%	20.48%	21.66%
CJ	78 Outperform	C$1.10B	9.59	12.42%	14.52%	3.79%	3.87%
PXT	75 Outperform	$1.37B	12.28	4.22%	15.03%	-9.92%	-78.49%
KEL	71 Outperform	C$1.46B	27.46	4.98%	―	0.73%	-36.49%
VET	62 Neutral	$1.57B	―	-1.19%	5.12%	1.04%	94.48%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.91B	-0.88	-3.26%	6.30%	2.20%	-43.43%
MER	45 Neutral	$1.15B	―	-25.82%	8.17%	―	-438.52%

Kelt Exploration Corporate Events

Kelt Exploration Achieves Record Production and Strong Financial Growth in Q1 2025

Kelt Exploration Ltd. reported a significant increase in its financial and operational performance for the first quarter of 2025. The company achieved a record average daily production of 40,015 BOE, marking a 22% increase from the previous year. Petroleum and natural gas sales rose to $142.5 million, up 13% from the same period in 2024. Despite a slight decrease in the realized price per BOE, Kelt’s net income surged by 60% to $18.9 million, reflecting strong operational efficiency and strategic financial management.

Kelt Exploration Announces Board Changes and Shareholder Approvals

Kelt Exploration Ltd. announced the results of its Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders, where all proposed matters were approved. Key changes include the retirement of director Michael R. Shea and the election of Ray Kwan to the board, who will serve as chair of the audit committee. The meeting also approved amendments to the restricted share unit plan, a new performance share unit plan, and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as auditors.