Kelt Exploration (KEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.34B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 351.59K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.12
• Revenue Growth: 6.97%
• EPS Growth: 9.34%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 77
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 199,136,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 449,439
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 351,588
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$9.24
• Price Target Upside: 36.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: C$7.00 ▲(3.70% Upside)

Kelt Exploration's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance and technical analysis. The company shows strong operational efficiency and a solid balance sheet, but faces challenges with declining revenues and negative free cash flow. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, impacting the stock's attractiveness. Valuation is moderate, reflecting a balanced view of growth potential and market conditions. Recent corporate events are positive but not included in the weighted score.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow

Quarterly cash flow highlighted a beat on estimates, which is encouraging given third-party plant delays.

Debt Management

Net debt/PDP value currently stands at a low 14% of PDP value.

Production Growth

The company should see among the highest production growth into late 2026, possibly doubling.

Negative Factors

Reserve Evaluation

For every dollar spent, there was a loss of $0.52 in value, partly due to changes in reserve evaluators.

Kelt Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kelt Exploration Ltd. (KEL) is a Canadian oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in Western Canada. The company primarily operates in the Montney and Duvernay formations, which are known for their high-quality reserves. Kelt is committed to sustainable practices and environmental stewardship while seeking to maximize shareholder value through efficient operations and strategic growth initiatives.

How the Company Makes Money

Kelt Exploration generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its operations. The company employs a business model that focuses on low-cost production and high-margin assets, allowing it to capitalize on market demand for energy resources. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of hydrocarbons to various customers, including refineries and energy companies, as well as long-term supply agreements that provide stable cash flows. Additionally, Kelt's strategic partnerships and joint ventures in the exploration and development of its resource properties enhance its operational efficiency and reduce financial risks, contributing to its overall earnings.

Kelt Exploration Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kelt Exploration shows robust operational efficiency with strong EBITDA margins and a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, declining revenues and negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures pose challenges, impacting its financial health.

Income Statement

Kelt Exploration's income statement shows a stable gross profit margin of approximately 26% and a moderate net profit margin of around 11% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the company has experienced a decline in revenue from $468 million in 2024 to $467 million in TTM, indicating a slight revenue contraction. The EBIT margin is 15% and EBITDA margin stands strong at 47%, demonstrating good operational efficiency despite the revenue decline.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 72% for TTM, highlighting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.10, suggesting prudent financial leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is modest at 5%, indicating moderate profitability relative to shareholder equity. Overall, the balance sheet suggests a stable financial position with low leverage risk.

Cash Flow

Kelt Exploration's cash flow statement shows a challenging scenario with negative free cash flow of -$124 million for TTM due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 4.44, indicating strong cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting the high investment activities affecting cash reserves.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	468.43M	436.41M	613.36M	316.76M	207.16M
Gross Profit	134.48M	141.51M	308.60M	121.85M	-348.07M
EBITDA	208.32M	241.60M	330.29M	229.39M	-282.45M
Net Income	45.42M	85.97M	158.76M	114.26M	-324.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.45B	1.26B	1.13B	913.50M	759.99M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	228.00K	14.34M	125.00K	719.00K	31.57M
Total Debt	111.07M	1.46M	12.35M	2.16M	1.46M
Total Liabilities	387.68M	256.63M	226.68M	190.77M	156.30M
Stockholders Equity	1.06B	1.00B	901.42M	722.72M	603.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-124.00M	630.00K	-11.56M	-62.65M	-92.83M
Operating Cash Flow	209.15M	283.22M	306.02M	159.71M	59.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-336.57M	-265.49M	-328.94M	-191.54M	326.61M
Financing Cash Flow	113.31M	-3.52M	22.33M	973.00K	-362.68M

Kelt Exploration Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 6.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.30, below the 50-day MA of 7.31, and above the 200-day MA of 6.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.18 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:KEL.

Kelt Exploration Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CJ	80 Outperform	C$1.15B	13.01	9.64%	10.35%	-9.20%	-25.28%
PXT	77 Outperform	C$1.57B	9.03	6.62%	9.52%	-20.60%	-56.33%
HWX	73 Outperform	$1.66B	9.00	25.93%	6.01%	8.47%	-1.60%
KEL	57 Neutral	C$1.34B	18.02	6.73%	―	6.97%	9.34%
VET	56 Neutral	$1.56B	―	4.40%	4.98%	-1.60%	76.21%
Sector *	56 Neutral	C$4.17B	2.50	16.25%	5.59%	6.33%	-50.37%
MER	45 Neutral	$1.16B	―	-25.82%	7.85%	―	-457.08%

Kelt Exploration Corporate Events

Kelt Exploration Sees Strong Q2 Performance with Increased Production

Kelt Exploration Ltd. reported a significant increase in both financial and operational performance for the second quarter of 2025. The company’s net income rose by 198% compared to the previous year, driven by a 26% increase in average daily production, despite a decline in realized oil and NGL prices. The results reflect Kelt’s strategic focus on enhancing production efficiency and managing costs, positioning it favorably within the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEL) stock is a Buy with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kelt Exploration stock, see the TSE:KEL Stock Forecast page.