Kelt Exploration (TSE:KEL)
TSX:KEL
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Kelt Exploration
(TSX:KEL)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$9.00
▲(10.57% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven primarily by a solid balance sheet and strong operating cash generation, but is capped by recent weakening fundamentals (margin compression, negative free cash flow, and higher debt). Technically the uptrend is favorable, though overbought signals raise near-term risk, and valuation looks less compelling at a ~24x P/E without dividend support.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A sizable equity base versus modest debt (debt-to-equity ~0.16) provides durable financial flexibility. This capital structure helps Kelt withstand oil/gas cyclicality, fund operating needs or opportunistic M&A, and reduces refinancing and covenant risk over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Material erosion in gross margins and a recent revenue decline indicate the company faces structural margin pressure—likely from lower realizations, higher costs, or quality/location differentials. Sustained margin compression undermines returns and limits the ability to rebuild retained earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
A sizable equity base versus modest debt (debt-to-equity ~0.16) provides durable financial flexibility. This capital structure helps Kelt withstand oil/gas cyclicality, fund operating needs or opportunistic M&A, and reduces refinancing and covenant risk over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Kelt Exploration (KEL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.68B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)437.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.2
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth9.92%
EPS Growth2.74%
CountryCA
Employees77
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding202,197,810
10 Day Avg. Volume578,473
30 Day Avg. Volume437,174
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.62
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)3.27
P/FCF Ratio-31.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$10.95Price Target Upside34.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$684.50M
Kelt Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kelt Exploration Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources primarily in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia, Canada. The company markets its crud...
How the Company Makes Money
Kelt Exploration makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into commodity markets. Its main revenue streams come from (1) natural gas sales, where produced gas is sold at market-linked prices (often referenced to regional be...
Kelt Exploration Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 466.99M | 468.43M | 436.41M | 613.36M | 316.76M |
| Gross Profit | 71.85M | 134.48M | 141.51M | 308.60M | 121.85M |
| EBITDA | 237.38M | 208.32M | 241.60M | 330.29M | 229.39M |
| Net Income | 63.06M | 45.42M | 85.97M | 158.76M | 114.26M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.60B | 1.45B | 1.26B | 1.13B | 913.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 90.00K | 228.00K | 14.34M | 125.00K | 719.00K |
| Total Debt | 180.88M | 111.07M | 1.46M | 12.35M | 2.16M |
| Total Liabilities | 460.88M | 387.68M | 256.63M | 226.68M | 190.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.14B | 1.06B | 1.00B | 901.42M | 722.72M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -49.15M | -124.00M | 630.00K | -11.56M | -62.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 264.26M | 209.15M | 283.22M | 306.02M | 159.71M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -340.57M | -336.57M | -265.49M | -328.94M | -191.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 76.18M | 113.31M | -3.52M | 22.33M | 973.00K |
Kelt Exploration Technical Analysis
Negative
8.14
Price Trends
8.76
Negative
8.19
Negative
7.60
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.11
Positive
37.61
Neutral
19.05
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.94, below the 50-day MA of 8.76, and above the 200-day MA of 7.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:KEL.
Kelt Exploration Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | C$2.52B | 5.03 | 13.39% | 8.48% | -20.07% | -53.33% | |
70 Outperform | C$1.99B | -11.67 | 8.46% | 8.25% | -9.30% | -26.09% | |
66 Neutral | C$1.68B | 24.19 | 5.65% | ― | 9.92% | 2.74% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$2.51B | -2.69 | -24.89% | 4.60% | -2.32% | 70.14% | |
62 Neutral | C$2.40B | 20.51 | 11.57% | ― | 17.31% | -75.56% | |
51 Neutral | C$1.61B | 36.95 | 3.19% | ― | 27.84% | 28.87% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:KEL
Kelt Exploration
8.35
2.63
45.98%
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Kelt Exploration Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Kelt Exploration lifts 2025 output and earnings despite plant delays
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Kelt Exploration reported strong growth in 2025, with average annual production rising 22% to 40,397 BOE per day despite shut-ins linked to construction delays at a third-party gas plant in its Wembley/Pipestone core area. Fourth-quarter output cl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.