Kelt Exploration (KEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.56B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 437.17K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 9.92%
• EPS Growth: 2.74%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 77
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 199,804,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 578,473
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 437,174
• PEG Ratio: -0.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.96
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$9.88
• Price Target Upside: 26.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: C$8.50 ▲(8.97% Upside)

Kelt Exploration's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance, particularly in revenue growth and profitability margins, which are the most significant factors. The technical analysis indicates a balanced outlook, while the valuation suggests the stock may be slightly overvalued. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events did not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates a strong market position and effective strategies in expanding operations, supporting long-term business sustainability.

Profitability Margins

Improved profitability margins suggest effective cost management and operational efficiency, enhancing the company's ability to generate profits.

Balance Sheet Health

A low debt-to-equity ratio reflects financial stability and reduces risk, allowing the company to pursue growth opportunities with less financial strain.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Challenges

Negative free cash flow indicates difficulties in converting earnings into cash, which may limit the company's ability to invest in growth or weather downturns.

Gross Profit Margin Pressure

A declining gross profit margin suggests rising costs or pricing pressures, which could impact profitability if not managed effectively.

Cash Management Concerns

Persistent issues with cash management could hinder the company's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives, affecting long-term growth prospects.

Kelt Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kelt Exploration Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources primarily in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia, Canada. The company markets its crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids production primarily to third party marketing companies. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved developed producing reserves of 43.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE); total proved reserves of 134.1 million BOE; and total proved plus probable reserves of 254.1 million BOE. Kelt Exploration Ltd. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Kelt Exploration generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates in key regions where it has established production facilities, allowing it to efficiently extract and sell hydrocarbons to various markets. Its revenue model is heavily reliant on commodity prices for oil and gas, which can fluctuate based on market demand and geopolitical factors. Additionally, Kelt may engage in joint ventures or partnerships with other exploration and production companies to share resources and mitigate risks, thereby enhancing its revenue opportunities. The company's focus on cost-effective operations and strategic investments in infrastructure further contribute to its profitability.

Kelt Exploration Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kelt Exploration demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects conservative leverage, enhancing financial stability. However, negative free cash flow remains a concern, indicating potential challenges in cash management.

Income Statement

Kelt Exploration shows a positive revenue growth trend with a 3.21% increase in TTM, following a 7.34% increase in 2024. The gross profit margin has decreased slightly to 27.85% in TTM from 28.71% in 2024, indicating some pressure on cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly to 15.47% in TTM from 9.70% in 2024, reflecting better profitability. However, the EBIT margin decreased to 22.10% in TTM from 14.27% in 2024, while the EBITDA margin improved to 56.28% in TTM from 44.47% in 2024, suggesting strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio remains low at 0.14 in TTM, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity improved to 6.87% in TTM from 4.27% in 2024, showing enhanced profitability. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid financial structure. However, the company should monitor its debt levels as they have increased over the periods.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong with a coverage ratio of 2.73 in TTM, up from 2.23 in 2024, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow remains negative, with a free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.51 in TTM, suggesting challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow. The free cash flow growth rate is slightly positive at 4.79% in TTM, indicating some improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	494.36M	468.43M	436.41M	613.36M	316.76M	207.16M
Gross Profit	132.13M	134.48M	141.51M	308.60M	121.85M	-348.07M
EBITDA	258.82M	208.32M	241.60M	330.29M	229.39M	-282.45M
Net Income	57.79M	45.42M	85.97M	158.76M	114.26M	-324.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.59B	1.45B	1.26B	1.13B	913.50M	759.99M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.34M	228.00K	14.34M	125.00K	719.00K	31.57M
Total Debt	187.06M	111.07M	1.46M	12.35M	2.16M	1.46M
Total Liabilities	477.39M	387.68M	256.63M	226.68M	190.77M	156.30M
Stockholders Equity	1.12B	1.06B	1.00B	901.42M	722.72M	603.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-133.07M	-124.00M	630.00K	-11.56M	-62.65M	-92.83M
Operating Cash Flow	249.52M	209.15M	283.22M	306.02M	159.71M	59.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-393.35M	-336.57M	-265.49M	-328.94M	-191.54M	326.61M
Financing Cash Flow	145.03M	113.31M	-3.52M	22.33M	973.00K	-362.68M

Kelt Exploration Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.67, above the 50-day MA of 7.61, and above the 200-day MA of 7.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEL.

Kelt Exploration Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PXT	76 Outperform	C$1.95B	12.48	5.77%	8.48%	-20.07%	-53.33%
CJ	72 Outperform	C$1.43B	18.51	8.46%	8.25%	-9.30%	-26.09%
SDE	67 Neutral	C$1.84B	46.47	7.22%	―	17.31%	-75.56%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
VET	64 Neutral	C$2.02B	-8.67	2.34%	4.60%	-2.32%	70.14%
KEL	61 Neutral	C$1.56B	26.71	5.22%	―	9.92%	2.74%
AAV	58 Neutral	C$1.84B	30.41	3.69%	―	27.84%	28.87%

Kelt Exploration Corporate Events

Kelt Exploration Sets $355 Million 2026 Budget to Drive 26% Production Growth

Kelt Exploration has set a 2026 capital expenditure budget of $355 million, allocating the bulk to drilling and completions across its core Montney-focused divisions, with additional spending on facilities, pipelines and land. Based on conservative commodity price assumptions, the company is targeting a 26% increase in average production to 50,000–52,000 BOE per day and a 27% rise in adjusted funds from operations to $355 million, while keeping year-end net debt flat at $170 million and maintaining a relatively conservative net debt-to-AFFO ratio of 0.5 times, underscoring its plan to grow output and cash flow without materially increasing leverage.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEL) stock is a Buy with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kelt Exploration stock, see the TSE:KEL Stock Forecast page.

Kelt Exploration Reports Increased Production and Financial Growth Amid Temporary Shutdowns

Kelt Exploration Ltd. reported a 16% increase in average daily production to 37,710 BOE per day for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The company faced temporary production shutdowns due to low gas prices and maintenance operations, but all affected production has been restored. Despite a net loss in the third quarter, Kelt achieved significant growth in cash from operations and adjusted funds from operations over the nine-month period, indicating strong operational performance and financial resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEL) stock is a Hold with a C$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kelt Exploration stock, see the TSE:KEL Stock Forecast page.

Kelt Exploration Updates on Albright Gas Plant Start-Up

Kelt Exploration Ltd. announced the start-up of the Albright Gas Plant, owned by CSV Midstream Solutions Corp., near its operations in Wembley/Pipestone, Alberta. The plant’s commissioning allows Kelt to resume and increase gas deliveries, although the company anticipates a 3% to 5% reduction in its annual production guidance due to previous delays and market conditions. The successful start-up is expected to boost Kelt’s production in the region significantly, enhancing its operational capacity and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:KEL) stock is a Buy with a C$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kelt Exploration stock, see the TSE:KEL Stock Forecast page.