Kelt Exploration (KEL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.36B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 324.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 0.73%
• EPS Growth: -36.49%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 77
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 43
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 198,961,580
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 265,683
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 324,258
• PEG Ratio: 1.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$9.25
• Price Target Upside: 35.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: C$7.00 ▲(2.49%Upside)

Kelt Exploration's overall score reflects strong operational efficiency and financial stability, tempered by declining revenues and cash flow challenges. While technical indicators show some bullish momentum, the stock's high valuation and overbought conditions limit upside potential. Recent corporate achievements bolster confidence but are offset by negative free cash flow concerns.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Quarterly cash flow highlighted a beat on estimates, which is encouraging given third-party plant delays.

Production Growth

The company should see among the highest production growth into late 2026, possibly doubling its output.

Negative Factors

Value Loss

For every dollar spent, there was a loss of $0.52 in value, partly due to changes in reserve evaluators.

Kelt Exploration Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kelt Exploration Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources primarily in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia, Canada. The company markets its crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids production primarily to third party marketing companies. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved developed producing reserves of 43.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE); total proved reserves of 134.1 million BOE; and total proved plus probable reserves of 254.1 million BOE. Kelt Exploration Ltd. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Kelt Exploration generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its exploration and production activities. The company leverages its expertise in geological assessment and technological innovation to efficiently extract resources from its leased land holdings. Revenue streams for Kelt are influenced by commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiency. The company also engages in hedging activities to manage commodity price risks and stabilize cash flows. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other industry players can also play a role in optimizing operations and expanding market access, thereby contributing to the company's financial performance.

Kelt Exploration Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kelt Exploration demonstrates strong operational efficiency with an EBITDA margin of 47% and maintains financial stability with a low leverage ratio. However, declining revenues and negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures pose challenges to financial health.

Income Statement

Kelt Exploration's income statement shows a stable gross profit margin of approximately 26% and a moderate net profit margin of around 11% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the company has experienced a decline in revenue from $468 million in 2024 to $467 million in TTM, indicating a slight revenue contraction. The EBIT margin is 15% and EBITDA margin stands strong at 47%, demonstrating good operational efficiency despite the revenue decline.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity base with an equity ratio of 72% for TTM, highlighting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.10, suggesting prudent financial leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is modest at 5%, indicating moderate profitability relative to shareholder equity. Overall, the balance sheet suggests a stable financial position with low leverage risk.

Cash Flow

Kelt Exploration's cash flow statement shows a challenging scenario with negative free cash flow of -$124 million for TTM due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 4.44, indicating strong cash generation from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting the high investment activities affecting cash reserves.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
467.30M	468.43M	436.41M	613.36M	316.76M	207.16M
	Gross Profit
122.05M	134.48M	141.51M	308.60M	121.85M	-348.07M
	EBIT
69.72M	67.44M	123.26M	244.04M	78.85M	-400.98M
	EBITDA
222.30M	208.32M	241.60M	330.29M	229.39M	-282.45M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
52.55M	45.42M	85.97M	158.76M	114.26M	-324.81M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
89.00K	228.00K	14.34M	125.00K	719.00K	31.57M
	Total Assets
1.51B	1.45B	1.26B	1.13B	913.50M	759.99M
	Total Debt
104.92M	111.07M	1.46M	12.35M	2.16M	1.46M
	Net Debt
104.83M	110.84M	-12.88M	12.22M	1.44M	-30.11M
	Total Liabilities
426.49M	387.68M	256.63M	226.68M	190.77M	156.30M
	Stockholders Equity
1.09B	1.06B	1.00B	901.42M	722.72M	603.68M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-124.03M	-124.00M	630.00K	-11.56M	-62.65M	-92.83M
	Operating Cash Flow
233.58M	209.15M	283.22M	306.02M	159.71M	59.28M
	Investing Cash Flow
-342.94M	-336.57M	-265.49M	-328.94M	-191.54M	326.61M
	Financing Cash Flow
108.01M	113.31M	-3.52M	22.33M	973.00K	-362.68M

Kelt Exploration Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.60, above the 50-day MA of 6.19, and above the 200-day MA of 6.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEL.

Kelt Exploration Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CJ	78 Outperform	C$1.02B	8.89	12.42%	11.34%	3.79%	3.87%
PXT	77 Outperform	$1.43B	12.79	4.22%	10.33%	-9.92%	-78.49%
HWX	76 Outperform	$1.52B	7.61	29.87%	6.36%	20.48%	21.66%
KEL	62 Neutral	C$1.36B	25.70	4.98%	―	0.73%	-36.49%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.16B	3.10	-4.49%	5.66%	0.82%	-49.15%
VET	54 Neutral	$1.48B	―	-1.19%	5.13%	1.04%	94.48%
MER	45 Neutral	$1.21B	―	-25.82%	7.63%	―	-438.52%

Kelt Exploration Corporate Events

Kelt Exploration Achieves Record Production and Strong Financial Growth in Q1 2025

Kelt Exploration Ltd. reported a significant increase in its financial and operational performance for the first quarter of 2025. The company achieved a record average daily production of 40,015 BOE, marking a 22% increase from the previous year. Petroleum and natural gas sales rose to $142.5 million, up 13% from the same period in 2024. Despite a slight decrease in the realized price per BOE, Kelt’s net income surged by 60% to $18.9 million, reflecting strong operational efficiency and strategic financial management.

Kelt Exploration Announces Board Changes and Shareholder Approvals

Kelt Exploration Ltd. announced the results of its Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders, where all proposed matters were approved. Key changes include the retirement of director Michael R. Shea and the election of Ray Kwan to the board, who will serve as chair of the audit committee. The meeting also approved amendments to the restricted share unit plan, a new performance share unit plan, and the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as auditors.

Kelt Exploration Reports Decline in 2024 Financial Results Amid Increased Capital Expenditure

Kelt Exploration Ltd. reported a decrease in both quarterly and annual financial results for the year ended December 31, 2024, with a notable decline in net income and comprehensive income by 42% and 47% respectively. Despite the financial downturn, the company increased its capital expenditures by 55% in the fourth quarter, indicating a strategic focus on future growth and asset development.