Vermilion Energy (TSE:VET)
TSX:VET
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Vermilion Energy
(TSX:VET)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$19.50
▲(8.15% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong operating cash flow and moderate leverage, but pressured earnings (TTM net loss) and soft revenue. Technicals add meaningful support as price is in a clear uptrend with positive momentum. The earnings call further boosts the outlook with constructive guidance and sizable 2P reserves growth, while valuation is tempered by the negative P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Persistent, material operating cash flow (~$944M TTM) and positive free cash flow (~$306M) provide durable internal funding for capital spending, debt paydown and distributions. Strong cash conversion versus accounting earnings supports balance sheet resilience and strategic optionality over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility
Recent declines to revenue and a TTM net loss indicate earnings are volatile and currently negative. Persistent accounting losses can constrain retained earnings, limit reinvestment funded from profits, and pressure ROE, making long-term growth and shareholder returns more dependent on volatile commodity cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Persistent, material operating cash flow (~$944M TTM) and positive free cash flow (~$306M) provide durable internal funding for capital spending, debt paydown and distributions. Strong cash conversion versus accounting earnings supports balance sheet resilience and strategic optionality over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Vermilion Energy (VET) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.76B
Dividend Yield4.6%
Average Volume (3M)1.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth-2.32%
EPS Growth70.14%
CountryCA
Employees743
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.86
Shares Outstanding152,950,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,340,504
30 Day Avg. Volume1,650,003
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio5.38
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$17.77Price Target Upside-1.44% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.88B
Vermilion Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vermilion Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas in North America, Europe, and Australia. The company owns 81% working interest in 636,714 net ...
How the Company Makes Money
Vermilion makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into wholesale energy markets. Its main revenue streams are (1) crude oil and condensate sales, (2) natural gas sales, and (3) natural gas liquids (NGLs) sales. Revenue is ...
Vermilion Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized significant positive developments: record production, a 36% increase in 2P reserves, strong realized gas pricing (roughly 2x AECO), improved cost structure, European well outperformance (Osterheide +40% vs Q3) and tangible balance sheet actions (debt reduction and retained stake). Near‑term challenges include cyclone‑related downtime in Australia, some technical reserve revisions from portfolio high‑grading, localized natural declines, and hedging/liquidity considerations. Overall the positive operational, reserve and financial trends materially outweigh the operational hiccups and conservative near‑term impacts.Positive Updates
Record Production and Strong Operational Performance
Delivered record annual production in 2025 with Q4 production of 121,308 BOE/d (ahead of guidance); Q1 2026 outlook 122,000–124,000 BOE/d. Q4 production was ~5,000 BOE/d higher than Q3 on a normalized basis after dispositions.
Negative Updates
Australia Cyclone and Export System Impact
Wandoo platform impacted by a Category 3 cyclone and a prior small leak during maintenance led to regulator intervention and temporary export limitations. Resulted in downtime/delays to crude exports and conservative Q1 production assumptions for Australia; management expects ramp back to normal by Q2 2026. Export of >300,000 barrels completed Feb 27 as part of recovery.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Strong Operational Performance
Delivered record annual production in 2025 with Q4 production of 121,308 BOE/d (ahead of guidance); Q1 2026 outlook 122,000–124,000 BOE/d. Q4 production was ~5,000 BOE/d higher than Q3 on a normalized basis after dispositions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q1 2026 production of 122,000–124,000 BOE/d, said H1 2026 should be in line with recent levels (with lower Q3 production expected due to planned maintenance), and expects Wisselshorst to be brought online mid‑2026 (Vermilion’s 64% WI ~7 MMBOE / 43 Bcf included in 2P) while Montney volumes target ~28,000 BOE/d as the kit is built out; Australia volumes are being conservatively assumed low for Q1 but management expects a return to normal by Q2 after exporting >300,000 bbl following the cyclone. Other metrics and guidance points: 2026 FFO is shown at ~$950 million (management noted recent commodity strength materially uplifts excess free cash flow vs prior plans), Q4 production was 121,308 BOE/d (69% gas) with Q4 funds flow $241M, E&D capex $192M and free cash flow $49M; Q4 realized gas was $5.50/Mcf (≈2x AECO) with TTF ~ $15/MMBtu in Q4 and >$20/MMBtu more recently; hedge position for 2026 roughly 50% European gas, 53% oil and 45% North American gas (company has taken hedges up to ~70% historically and used participating call structures on recent oil hedges). Reserve and long‑run metrics cited alongside guidance include 2P reserves 592 MMBOE with a 2P RLI of 14 years, 2025 additions of 86 MMBOE PDP and 201 MMBOE 2P, F&D/A costs ≈ $1.50/Mcf in Europe, PDP F&D&A $14.91/BOE and 2P $7.71/BOE (recycle ratios 1.8x and 3.5x), and a before‑tax 2P NPV10 less net debt equivalent to $23 per basic share.Vermilion Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.77B | 2.07B | 1.93B | 3.72B | 2.23B |
| Gross Profit | 291.13M | 1.12B | 359.39M | 2.59B | 1.32B |
| EBITDA | 936.61M | 835.80M | 519.55M | 2.55B | 2.07B |
| Net Income | -653.60M | -46.74M | -237.59M | 1.31B | 1.15B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.34B | 6.12B | 6.24B | 6.99B | 5.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.09M | 131.73M | 141.46M | 13.84M | 6.03M |
| Total Debt | 1.30B | 1.02B | 947.02M | 1.13B | 1.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.12B | 3.30B | 3.20B | 3.59B | 3.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.22B | 2.81B | 3.03B | 3.40B | 2.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 326.41M | 332.04M | 292.06M | 1.26B | 459.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 943.66M | 967.75M | 1.02B | 1.81B | 834.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.24B | -634.87M | -576.43M | -1.06B | -469.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 180.90M | -344.08M | -320.34M | -748.37M | -363.45M |
Vermilion Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
18.03
Price Trends
15.46
Positive
13.66
Positive
12.02
Positive
Market Momentum
1.05
Positive
63.60
Neutral
36.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.70, above the 50-day MA of 15.46, and above the 200-day MA of 12.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:VET.
Vermilion Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | C$2.38B | 5.03 | 5.77% | 8.48% | -20.07% | -53.33% | |
82 Outperform | C$2.84B | 14.55 | 20.71% | 4.58% | 6.44% | -6.74% | |
70 Outperform | C$1.91B | -11.67 | 8.46% | 8.25% | -9.30% | -26.09% | |
66 Neutral | C$1.76B | 24.19 | 5.65% | ― | 9.92% | 2.74% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$2.76B | -2.69 | -24.89% | 4.60% | -2.32% | 70.14% | |
61 Neutral | C$1.70B | 31.40 | 2.90% | 1.59% | -9.76% | 374.65% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:VET
Vermilion Energy
18.03
9.13
102.68%
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Vermilion Energy Corporate Events
Dividends
Vermilion Energy Raises Dividend for Fifth Straight Year
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
Vermilion Energy Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.135 Canadian per common share, payable on March 31, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 13, 2026, marking a 4% increase over its prior quarterly dividend. The move represents the fifth conse...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vermilion Energy Posts Record Output, Strong Reserves and Cash Flow Despite Impairments
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
Vermilion Energy reported record 2025 production of nearly 120,000 boe/d, driven by strong growth in its North American and international gas-weighted portfolio. The company realized natural gas prices multiple times above AECO, underscoring the v...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vermilion Energy Sets March Date to Unveil Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Neutral
Feb 26, 2026
Vermilion Energy Inc., which trades on the Toronto and New York stock exchanges under the symbol VET, operates a diversified portfolio of liquids-rich natural gas assets in Canada, conventional natural gas in Europe and low-decline oil properties....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.