Vermilion Energy (VET) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.86B
• Dividend Yield: 4.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 950.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.83
• Revenue Growth: -2.32%
• EPS Growth: 70.14%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 743
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 153,294,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,120,286
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 950,678
• PEG Ratio: 0.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.03
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$13.98
• Price Target Upside: 15.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.61
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.95B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: C$12.00 ▼(-1.07% Downside)

Vermilion Energy's overall stock score is driven by a positive earnings call and technical analysis, indicating potential for growth and improved market sentiment. However, financial performance and valuation concerns due to negative earnings and profitability challenges weigh on the score. The attractive dividend yield and strategic initiatives provide some balance.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Growth

Sustained free cash flow growth strengthens Vermilion's ability to fund dividends, reduce debt, and invest in high-return projects. Over the medium term this enhances financial flexibility, supports capital allocation discipline, and cushions operations through commodity cycles.

Global Gas Portfolio Pricing Advantage

Outperformance versus benchmark and hedging gains reflect a structurally advantaged global gas portfolio and risk management. Higher realized prices improve margin sustainability, reduce cashflow volatility, and support reinvestment and shareholder returns across commodity cycles.

Material Net Debt Reduction

Significant debt reduction materially improves balance sheet resilience and lowers interest burden, enabling more reliable funding for capex and dividends. Improved leverage provides structural flexibility to pursue acquisitions or withstand prolonged low-price environments.

Negative Factors

Negative Profitability

Persistent negative net income and contracting revenues signal structural profitability challenges. Over the medium term this undermines reinvestment capacity and makes dividend sustainability and organic growth more dependent on continued FCF improvement or higher commodity prices.

Negative Return on Equity

A negative ROE indicates the company is not generating adequate returns from shareholder capital. Structurally this raises concerns about capital allocation effectiveness and could constrain long-term shareholder value creation without operational or portfolio improvements.

Commodity Price Exposure

Material exposure to spot commodity markets creates inherent revenue and margin cyclicality. Even with hedging, prolonged low price environments can erode cash generation and project economics, making growth plans and dividend policy sensitive to structural commodity market shifts.

Vermilion Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vermilion Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas in North America, Europe, and Australia. The company owns 81% working interest in 636,714 net acres of developed land and 85% working interest in 301,026 net acres of undeveloped land in Canada; 130,715 net acres of land in the Powder River basin in the United States; 96% working interest in 248,873 net acres of developed land and 86% working interest in 134,160 net acres of undeveloped land in the Aquitaine and Paris Basins in France; 53% working interest in 901,791 net acres of land in the Netherlands; 54,625 net developed acres and 920,723 net undeveloped acres in Germany; 975,375 net acres land in Croatia; 946,666 net acres land in Hungary; and 48,954 net acres land in Slovakia. It also owns 20% interests in the offshore Corrib natural gas field located to the northwest coast of Ireland; and 100% working interest in the Wandoo offshore oil field and related production facilities that covers 59,553 acres located on Western Australia's northwest shelf. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 401 net producing conventional natural gas wells and 2,132 net producing light and medium crude oil wells in Canada; 167.6 net producing light and medium crude oil wells in the United States; 297.0 net producing light and medium crude oil wells and 3 net producing conventional natural gas wells in France; and 47 net producing natural gas wells in the Netherlands. Vermilion Energy Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Vermilion Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its various operations. The company sells its production to a range of customers, including industrial users, refiners, and marketers, often under long-term contracts or at spot market prices. Key revenue streams include the extraction and sale of fossil fuels, along with hedging strategies that protect against price fluctuations in the commodities market. Additionally, Vermilion benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational efficiencies and expand its market reach, contributing to its overall profitability.

Vermilion Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vermilion Energy faces profitability challenges with declining revenues and negative net income. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but the company struggles to generate returns for shareholders. Cash flow generation is a bright spot, showing improvement despite overall financial difficulties.

Income Statement

Vermilion Energy's income statement shows a challenging period with declining revenue and negative net income in the TTM. The gross profit margin is moderate, but net profit margins are negative, indicating profitability issues. The revenue growth rate is negative, reflecting a contraction in sales compared to the previous period.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows strong free cash flow growth, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting good cash conversion despite negative net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low, highlighting potential challenges in translating earnings into cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.00B	2.07B	1.93B	3.72B	2.23B	1.25B
Gross Profit	1.14B	1.12B	359.39M	2.59B	1.32B	432.53M
EBITDA	957.15M	835.80M	519.55M	2.55B	2.07B	-1.19B
Net Income	-234.26M	-46.74M	-237.59M	1.31B	1.15B	-1.52B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.95B	6.12B	6.24B	6.99B	5.91B	4.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	46.05M	131.73M	141.46M	13.84M	6.03M	6.90M
Total Debt	1.33B	1.02B	947.02M	1.13B	1.71B	2.01B
Total Liabilities	3.25B	3.30B	3.20B	3.59B	3.84B	3.18B
Stockholders Equity	2.71B	2.81B	3.03B	3.40B	2.07B	925.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	372.74M	332.04M	292.06M	1.26B	459.66M	132.95M
Operating Cash Flow	1.02B	967.75M	1.02B	1.81B	834.45M	500.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.28B	-634.87M	-576.43M	-1.06B	-469.70M	-401.43M
Financing Cash Flow	113.75M	-344.08M	-320.34M	-748.37M	-363.45M	-120.60M

Vermilion Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.44, above the 50-day MA of 11.86, and above the 200-day MA of 10.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:VET.

Vermilion Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWX	79 Outperform	C$2.48B	14.26	23.55%	4.58%	6.44%	-6.74%
PXT	76 Outperform	C$1.89B	12.11	5.77%	8.48%	-20.07%	-53.33%
CJ	72 Outperform	C$1.40B	18.18	8.46%	8.25%	-9.30%	-26.09%
BIR	70 Neutral	C$1.88B	25.48	3.16%	1.59%	-9.76%	374.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
VET	64 Neutral	C$1.86B	-7.99	2.34%	4.60%	-2.32%	70.14%
KEL	61 Neutral	C$1.54B	26.40	5.22%	―	9.92%	2.74%

Vermilion Energy Corporate Events

Vermilion Energy Sells Stake in Coelacanth to Reduce Debt

Vermilion Energy Inc. announced the sale of 26 million common shares of Coelacanth Energy Inc. to reduce its debt and enhance its financial resilience. This transaction decreased Vermilion’s ownership in Coelacanth from 15% to 10.2%, signaling its strategic focus on bolstering business stability while maintaining flexibility in its investment portfolio. The sale is aligned with the company’s fiscal priorities, and Vermilion emphasized its ongoing review of future market and industry conditions for potential adjustments in its holdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.

Vermilion Energy Hosts Investor Day to Unveil Global Gas Portfolio Strategy

Vermilion Energy Inc. is hosting an Investor Day event to provide insights into its repositioned global gas portfolio and future outlook. The event features presentations by senior management and is accessible via a live webcast, reflecting the company’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.

Vermilion Energy Reduces Stake in Coelacanth Energy

Vermilion Energy Inc. announced the sale of 30 million common shares of Coelacanth Energy Inc. for $22.8 million, reducing its stake from 20.7% to 15.0%. This transaction aligns with Vermilion’s strategy to reduce debt and enhance business resilience, while the company retains the option to adjust its holdings based on market conditions and other factors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.

Vermilion Energy to Host Investor Day Highlighting Global Gas Portfolio

Vermilion Energy Inc. announced it will host an Investor Day on December 10, 2025, featuring presentations by senior management to provide insights into the company’s repositioned global gas portfolio and future outlook. This event reflects Vermilion’s ongoing commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.

Vermilion Energy to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results

Vermilion Energy Inc. announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, following the close of North American markets. The company will hold a conference call and webcast on November 6, 2025, to discuss these results. This announcement highlights Vermilion’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.