Vermilion Energy (VET) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.03B
• Dividend Yield: 4.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.38M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.38
• Revenue Growth: -2.32%
• EPS Growth: 70.14%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 743
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -2.86
• Shares Outstanding: 152,950,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,452,924
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,376,742
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$15.47
• Price Target Upside: -21.97% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.89B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: C$21.00 ▲(5.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/20/26

The score is driven by solid cash generation and a relatively stable balance sheet, tempered by current losses and declining TTM revenue. Technicals are strong but very overextended, while the latest earnings call adds support through improved guidance, debt reduction, and a dividend increase; valuation remains constrained by negative earnings despite a decent yield.

Positive Factors

Strong operating cash flow

Sustained operating cash flow near $1B and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for capital, dividends and debt reduction. Over the next 2–6 months this cash generation supports reinvestment and mandates flexibility through commodity cycles, improving resilience.

Moderate leverage and net debt reduction

A sub-0.5 debt-to-equity ratio and substantial recent net-debt paydown materially improve financial flexibility. Lower leverage reduces refinancing risk and interest burden, enabling continued capex, exploration and shareholder returns while withstanding commodity volatility over the medium term.

Strategic gas focus and successful European exploration

A deliberate shift toward a gas-heavy portfolio aligns with structural European gas demand and reduces oil-price sensitivity. New discoveries and higher realized European gas prices (and hedging gains) improve reserve optionality and long-term cash visibility versus spot-driven assets.

Negative Factors

Negative accounting profitability

Persistent negative net margins and declining TTM revenue signal accounting losses that constrain retained earnings and ROE. If profitability does not recover, it limits capital allocation flexibility, dividend sustainability and the company’s ability to fund growth from internally generated profits.

Weakening free cash flow momentum

A near-term drop in free cash flow momentum reduces the buffer for discretionary spending, debt paydown and buybacks. Continued FCF erosion would pressure liquidity and force tougher trade-offs between maintenance capex, growth projects and shareholder returns over the next several quarters.

Planned maintenance and temporary shut-ins

Elevated 2026 maintenance (including a lengthy turnaround) and prior temporary shut-ins will depress near-term production and raise cash needs. These operational timing effects can reduce realized volumes and revenues across the 2–6 month horizon, pressuring free cash flow and execution risk.

Vermilion Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vermilion Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas in North America, Europe, and Australia. The company owns 81% working interest in 636,714 net acres of developed land and 85% working interest in 301,026 net acres of undeveloped land in Canada; 130,715 net acres of land in the Powder River basin in the United States; 96% working interest in 248,873 net acres of developed land and 86% working interest in 134,160 net acres of undeveloped land in the Aquitaine and Paris Basins in France; 53% working interest in 901,791 net acres of land in the Netherlands; 54,625 net developed acres and 920,723 net undeveloped acres in Germany; 975,375 net acres land in Croatia; 946,666 net acres land in Hungary; and 48,954 net acres land in Slovakia. It also owns 20% interests in the offshore Corrib natural gas field located to the northwest coast of Ireland; and 100% working interest in the Wandoo offshore oil field and related production facilities that covers 59,553 acres located on Western Australia's northwest shelf. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 401 net producing conventional natural gas wells and 2,132 net producing light and medium crude oil wells in Canada; 167.6 net producing light and medium crude oil wells in the United States; 297.0 net producing light and medium crude oil wells and 3 net producing conventional natural gas wells in France; and 47 net producing natural gas wells in the Netherlands. Vermilion Energy Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Vermilion makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into wholesale energy markets. Its main revenue streams are (1) crude oil and condensate sales, (2) natural gas sales, and (3) natural gas liquids (NGLs) sales. Revenue is largely a function of production volumes and realized commodity prices, which vary by product, region, and benchmark-linked pricing (plus/minus local differentials) and can be influenced by transportation and marketing arrangements. The company can also use commodity price risk management (e.g., hedging) to reduce cash-flow volatility, which may affect realized pricing relative to spot markets. Vermilion’s earnings are further shaped by upstream operating economics—royalties/production taxes, operating costs, transportation/processing fees, and capital spending to sustain or grow production—as well as by the performance of specific assets and regional market conditions.

Vermilion Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue declined (-4.3%) and TTM net margin is negative (-11.7%), but operating cash flow remains strong (~$944M) with positive free cash flow (~$306M). Leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.49), though negative recent ROE reflects pressured profitability.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined (-4.3%) and the company reported a sizable net loss (net margin -11.7%) despite solid operating profitability (EBIT margin ~11.1%, EBITDA margin ~48.0%). Results show meaningful volatility over the cycle: very strong profitability in 2021–2022, followed by losses in 2023 and 2024, and a deeper loss in TTM—suggesting earnings are currently pressured even though the core operations still generate healthy cash-like operating earnings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate on the latest period with debt-to-equity around 0.49 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and equity remains sizable versus the asset base. However, returns on equity are negative in the most recent years (TTM and 2023–2024), signaling that capital is not currently producing accounting profits. The balance sheet appears more stable than the income statement, but profitability weakness is the main constraint on the score.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is strong (~$944M) and comfortably covers reported earnings (operating cash flow is ~2.09x net income in the data), with positive free cash flow (~$306M). The main watch-out is momentum—TTM free cash flow is down (~-18%) versus the prior year—indicating weaker cash conversion compared with the recent past even though cash flow remains positive.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.77B	2.07B	1.93B	3.72B	2.23B
Gross Profit	291.13M	1.12B	359.39M	2.59B	1.32B
EBITDA	936.61M	835.80M	519.55M	2.55B	2.07B
Net Income	-653.60M	-46.74M	-237.59M	1.31B	1.15B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.34B	6.12B	6.24B	6.99B	5.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.09M	131.73M	141.46M	13.84M	6.03M
Total Debt	1.30B	1.02B	947.02M	1.13B	1.71B
Total Liabilities	3.12B	3.30B	3.20B	3.59B	3.84B
Stockholders Equity	2.22B	2.81B	3.03B	3.40B	2.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	326.41M	332.04M	292.06M	1.26B	459.66M
Operating Cash Flow	943.66M	967.75M	1.02B	1.81B	834.45M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.24B	-634.87M	-576.43M	-1.06B	-469.70M
Financing Cash Flow	180.90M	-344.08M	-320.34M	-748.37M	-363.45M

Vermilion Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.83
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.62, above the 50-day MA of 13.99, and above the 200-day MA of 11.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 89.91 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.89 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:VET.

Vermilion Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PXT	85 Outperform	$2.60B	5.03	5.77%	8.48%	-20.07%	-53.33%
HWX	82 Outperform	C$3.08B	14.55	20.71%	4.58%	6.44%	-6.74%
CJ	70 Outperform	C$1.90B	-11.67	8.46%	8.25%	-9.30%	-26.09%
KEL	66 Neutral	C$1.88B	24.19	5.22%	―	9.92%	2.74%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
VET	63 Neutral	C$3.03B	-2.69	-24.89%	4.60%	-2.32%	70.14%
BIR	61 Neutral	C$2.08B	31.40	2.90%	1.59%	-9.76%	374.65%

Vermilion Energy Corporate Events

Vermilion Energy Raises Dividend for Fifth Straight Year

Vermilion Energy Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.135 Canadian per common share, payable on March 31, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 13, 2026, marking a 4% increase over its prior quarterly dividend. The move represents the fifth consecutive year of dividend growth, underscoring Vermilion’s ongoing commitment to returning capital to shareholders and highlighting confidence in its free cash flow generation and financial stability within the global natural gas market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.

Vermilion Energy Posts Record Output, Strong Reserves and Cash Flow Despite Impairments

Vermilion Energy reported record 2025 production of nearly 120,000 boe/d, driven by strong growth in its North American and international gas-weighted portfolio. The company realized natural gas prices multiple times above AECO, underscoring the value of its diversified market access and premium international exposure, even as non-cash impairments and asset sales produced an accounting net loss.

The company generated over $1 billion in fund flows from operations and $375 million in free cash flow last year, fully funding capital spending while cutting net debt by more than $700 million and returning $116 million to shareholders. Vermilion also delivered a 36% increase in 2P reserves, strong reserve recycle ratios and expanded Deep Basin and Montney activity, reinforcing its balance-sheet strength and long reserve life despite legacy asset write-downs.

Fourth-quarter 2025 results showed production above guidance and solid cash generation, with Q4 fund flows of $241 million and free cash flow of $49 million supporting further deleveraging and payouts. Operational highlights included record output from the Montney Mica asset, high-performing Deep Basin wells and progress on European gas projects in the Netherlands and Germany that are expected to underpin future growth and cash flows.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.

Vermilion Energy Sets March Date to Unveil Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results

Vermilion Energy Inc., which trades on the Toronto and New York stock exchanges under the symbol VET, operates a diversified portfolio of liquids-rich natural gas assets in Canada, conventional natural gas in Europe and low-decline oil properties. The company emphasizes safety, environmental stewardship and community investment, positioning itself as a global gas producer with significant exposure to international commodity markets.

The company will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 operating and financial results after North American markets close on March 4, 2026, with full audited statements and disclosures to be posted on Canadian and U.S. regulatory platforms and its website. Vermilion will host a conference call and webcast the following morning to review the results and engage with investors, underscoring its efforts to maintain regular communication and transparency with stakeholders ahead of a key earnings milestone.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.