Vermilion Energy (VET) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.65B
• Dividend Yield: 4.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.38M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.38
• Revenue Growth: -2.32%
• EPS Growth: 70.14%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 743
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -2.86
• Shares Outstanding: 152,600,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,608,173
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,381,465
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$15.38
• Price Target Upside: -8.47% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.89B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: C$18.50 ▲(10.12% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven by mixed financial performance—strong operating/free cash flow and moderate leverage offset by TTM net losses and revenue softness. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, but overbought indicators add near-term risk. Valuation is a key drag due to the very high P/E, while the latest earnings call is a positive offset with stronger guidance execution, cost improvements, debt reduction, and a higher dividend.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained operating cash flow near $944M and positive free cash flow (~$306M) provide durable internal funding for maintenance capex, dividends and debt reduction. Reliable cash generation reduces refinance risk and supports strategic allocation even through commodity cycles.

Global gas portfolio focus (85% of 2026 capex)

A deliberate capital allocation toward global gas (85% of 2026 capex) aligns Vermilion with structural demand for gas and diversified regional pricing. Concentrated investment in higher‑realized gas regions can steady cash flows and improve realized pricing versus domestic benchmarks over multiple years.

Material net debt reduction and shareholder returns

A >$650M net debt reduction materially strengthens the balance sheet and lowers financial leverage, increasing flexibility for future investments or distributions. Combined with a raised dividend, this signals durable cash conversion and management discipline on capital allocation.

Negative Factors

Revenue decline and TTM net loss

Falling revenue and a trailing‑twelve‑month net loss indicate persistent earnings pressure despite healthy operating cash flow. Continued accounting losses can limit retained earnings, constrain reinvestment capacity, and impair the company's ability to steadily rebuild profitability across business cycles.

Negative returns on equity

Negative ROE over multiple periods signals capital is not producing accounting profits, reducing the effectiveness of shareholder capital deployment. Persistently weak returns raise the cost of capital and complicate long‑term growth funding or sustained dividend increases without further efficiency gains.

Higher planned maintenance and production deferrals

Elevated maintenance (including a 32‑day turnaround) and strategic shut‑ins that deferred well start‑ups reduce near‑term volumes and increase sustaining capital. These actions can depress production durability, raise unit sustaining costs, and weigh on multi‑period growth visibility and cash generation.

Vermilion Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vermilion Energy Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas in North America, Europe, and Australia. The company owns 81% working interest in 636,714 net acres of developed land and 85% working interest in 301,026 net acres of undeveloped land in Canada; 130,715 net acres of land in the Powder River basin in the United States; 96% working interest in 248,873 net acres of developed land and 86% working interest in 134,160 net acres of undeveloped land in the Aquitaine and Paris Basins in France; 53% working interest in 901,791 net acres of land in the Netherlands; 54,625 net developed acres and 920,723 net undeveloped acres in Germany; 975,375 net acres land in Croatia; 946,666 net acres land in Hungary; and 48,954 net acres land in Slovakia. It also owns 20% interests in the offshore Corrib natural gas field located to the northwest coast of Ireland; and 100% working interest in the Wandoo offshore oil field and related production facilities that covers 59,553 acres located on Western Australia's northwest shelf. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 401 net producing conventional natural gas wells and 2,132 net producing light and medium crude oil wells in Canada; 167.6 net producing light and medium crude oil wells in the United States; 297.0 net producing light and medium crude oil wells and 3 net producing conventional natural gas wells in France; and 47 net producing natural gas wells in the Netherlands. Vermilion Energy Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Vermilion makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into wholesale energy markets. Its main revenue streams are (1) crude oil and condensate sales, (2) natural gas sales, and (3) natural gas liquids (NGLs) sales. Revenue is largely a function of production volumes and realized commodity prices, which vary by product, region, and benchmark-linked pricing (plus/minus local differentials) and can be influenced by transportation and marketing arrangements. The company can also use commodity price risk management (e.g., hedging) to reduce cash-flow volatility, which may affect realized pricing relative to spot markets. Vermilion’s earnings are further shaped by upstream operating economics—royalties/production taxes, operating costs, transportation/processing fees, and capital spending to sustain or grow production—as well as by the performance of specific assets and regional market conditions.

Vermilion Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals. Revenue declined (-4.3%) and TTM profitability is weak with a sizable net loss (net margin -11.7%) and negative returns, but cash generation remains a strength with strong operating cash flow (~$944M) and positive free cash flow (~$306M). Leverage appears moderate (debt-to-equity ~0.49), yet earnings volatility and recent profit pressure constrain the score.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined (-4.3%) and the company reported a sizable net loss (net margin -11.7%) despite solid operating profitability (EBIT margin ~11.1%, EBITDA margin ~48.0%). Results show meaningful volatility over the cycle: very strong profitability in 2021–2022, followed by losses in 2023 and 2024, and a deeper loss in TTM—suggesting earnings are currently pressured even though the core operations still generate healthy cash-like operating earnings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks moderate on the latest period with debt-to-equity around 0.49 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and equity remains sizable versus the asset base. However, returns on equity are negative in the most recent years (TTM and 2023–2024), signaling that capital is not currently producing accounting profits. The balance sheet appears more stable than the income statement, but profitability weakness is the main constraint on the score.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is strong (~$944M) and comfortably covers reported earnings (operating cash flow is ~2.09x net income in the data), with positive free cash flow (~$306M). The main watch-out is momentum—TTM free cash flow is down (~-18%) versus the prior year—indicating weaker cash conversion compared with the recent past even though cash flow remains positive.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.77B	2.07B	1.93B	3.72B	2.23B
Gross Profit	291.13M	1.12B	359.39M	2.59B	1.32B
EBITDA	936.61M	835.80M	519.55M	2.55B	2.07B
Net Income	-653.60M	-46.74M	-237.59M	1.31B	1.15B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.34B	6.12B	6.24B	6.99B	5.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.09M	131.73M	141.46M	13.84M	6.03M
Total Debt	1.30B	1.02B	947.02M	1.13B	1.71B
Total Liabilities	3.12B	3.30B	3.20B	3.59B	3.84B
Stockholders Equity	2.22B	2.81B	3.03B	3.40B	2.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	326.41M	332.04M	292.06M	1.26B	459.66M
Operating Cash Flow	943.66M	967.75M	1.02B	1.81B	834.45M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.24B	-634.87M	-576.43M	-1.06B	-469.70M
Financing Cash Flow	180.90M	-344.08M	-320.34M	-748.37M	-363.45M

Vermilion Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.80
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.18, above the 50-day MA of 13.68, and above the 200-day MA of 11.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.62 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.04 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:VET.

Vermilion Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PXT	85 Outperform	C$2.56B	5.03	5.77%	8.48%	-20.07%	-53.33%
HWX	82 Outperform	C$2.98B	14.55	20.71%	4.58%	6.44%	-6.74%
CJ	70 Outperform	C$1.88B	-11.67	8.46%	8.25%	-9.30%	-26.09%
KEL	66 Neutral	C$1.86B	24.19	5.22%	―	9.92%	2.74%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BIR	61 Neutral	$2.03B	31.40	2.90%	1.59%	-9.76%	374.65%
VET	61 Neutral	C$2.65B	-2.69	-24.89%	4.60%	-2.32%	70.14%

Vermilion Energy Corporate Events

Vermilion Energy Raises Dividend for Fifth Straight Year

Vermilion Energy Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.135 Canadian per common share, payable on March 31, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 13, 2026, marking a 4% increase over its prior quarterly dividend. The move represents the fifth consecutive year of dividend growth, underscoring Vermilion’s ongoing commitment to returning capital to shareholders and highlighting confidence in its free cash flow generation and financial stability within the global natural gas market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.

Vermilion Energy Posts Record Output, Strong Reserves and Cash Flow Despite Impairments

Vermilion Energy reported record 2025 production of nearly 120,000 boe/d, driven by strong growth in its North American and international gas-weighted portfolio. The company realized natural gas prices multiple times above AECO, underscoring the value of its diversified market access and premium international exposure, even as non-cash impairments and asset sales produced an accounting net loss.

The company generated over $1 billion in fund flows from operations and $375 million in free cash flow last year, fully funding capital spending while cutting net debt by more than $700 million and returning $116 million to shareholders. Vermilion also delivered a 36% increase in 2P reserves, strong reserve recycle ratios and expanded Deep Basin and Montney activity, reinforcing its balance-sheet strength and long reserve life despite legacy asset write-downs.

Fourth-quarter 2025 results showed production above guidance and solid cash generation, with Q4 fund flows of $241 million and free cash flow of $49 million supporting further deleveraging and payouts. Operational highlights included record output from the Montney Mica asset, high-performing Deep Basin wells and progress on European gas projects in the Netherlands and Germany that are expected to underpin future growth and cash flows.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.

Vermilion Energy Sets March Date to Unveil Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results

Vermilion Energy Inc., which trades on the Toronto and New York stock exchanges under the symbol VET, operates a diversified portfolio of liquids-rich natural gas assets in Canada, conventional natural gas in Europe and low-decline oil properties. The company emphasizes safety, environmental stewardship and community investment, positioning itself as a global gas producer with significant exposure to international commodity markets.

The company will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 operating and financial results after North American markets close on March 4, 2026, with full audited statements and disclosures to be posted on Canadian and U.S. regulatory platforms and its website. Vermilion will host a conference call and webcast the following morning to review the results and engage with investors, underscoring its efforts to maintain regular communication and transparency with stakeholders ahead of a key earnings milestone.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VET) stock is a Hold with a C$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vermilion Energy stock, see the TSE:VET Stock Forecast page.