Want to see TSE:MER full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Meren Energy
(TSX:MER)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$2.50
▲(20.19% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/19/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and strong cash generation with manageable leverage, supported by an upbeat earnings call with raised 2026 guidance. Technicals also look favorable with the stock trading above key moving averages, though near-term extension is a risk. Valuation is helped by a high dividend yield but tempered by ongoing net losses (negative P/E).
Positive Factors
Raised 2026 guidance
Materially higher EBITDAX and operating cash-flow guidance signals stronger operating momentum and management confidence. If achieved, the improved outlook can support reinvestment, debt reduction and shareholder returns over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent net losses
Ongoing bottom-line losses weaken earnings quality despite solid operating margins and cash flow. Depreciation, financing, tax or other charges may continue to pressure reported results, limiting retained equity growth and reducing the durability of shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Raised 2026 guidance
Materially higher EBITDAX and operating cash-flow guidance signals stronger operating momentum and management confidence. If achieved, the improved outlook can support reinvestment, debt reduction and shareholder returns over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Meren Energy (MER) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.53B
Dividend Yield9.07%
Average Volume (3M)791.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth387.83%
EPS Growth72.16%
CountryCA
Employees50
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.15
Shares Outstanding676,115,300
10 Day Avg. Volume545,008
30 Day Avg. Volume791,938
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.07
Price to Sales (P/S)1.44
P/FCF Ratio2.41
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$2.50Price Target Upside20.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$910.43M
Meren Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Meren Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a constructive and improving picture: operational performance was solid, cash generation strengthened in Q2, leverage is low (net debt/EBITDAX 0.5x) and management upgraded full-year guidance materially (EBITDAX and cash flow). The company is moving back into active drilling and interventions that should stabilize or modestly grow production into 2027 and has meaningful portfolio upside from near-field targets and the Namibia Venus project. Key risks include oil price volatility, the legacy hedging mismatch that impacted one cargo, timing of liftings and execution risk for the upcoming drilling program and deferred CapEx timing into 2027. On balance, positives (strong cash generation, upgraded guidance, low leverage, clear activity plan and portfolio optionality) outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Production Performance and Guidance
Entitlement production ~30,000 BOE/day in Q2 with first-half production of ~28,000 BOE/day; full-year 2026 guidance narrowed to working interest 24,000–27,000 BOE/day and entitlement 28,500–32,500 BOE/day, reflecting confidence in meeting guidance.
Negative Updates
Pricing Volatility and Legacy Hedging Impact
One Q2 cargo priced under legacy trigger mechanism realized only $63.6/bbl, demonstrating downside of prior hedging structure; company acknowledged the structure is being retired due to current commodity price volatility.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Performance and Guidance
Entitlement production ~30,000 BOE/day in Q2 with first-half production of ~28,000 BOE/day; full-year 2026 guidance narrowed to working interest 24,000–27,000 BOE/day and entitlement 28,500–32,500 BOE/day, reflecting confidence in meeting guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 guidance: working‑interest production narrowed to 24,000–27,000 boe/d and entitlement production to 28,500–32,500 boe/d on an assumed Brent of ~$85/bbl, EBITDAX was increased to $390–430M (up from initial guidance of ~$270M–$360M) and cash flow from operations to $235–260M (midpoint increases ~30% and ~12%), while capital investment guidance was trimmed/partially deferred with CapEx weighted to H2 (Q2 CapEx $50M; H1 CapEx $24M). Q2 results included EBITDAX $108M (H1 $220M), cash flow from operations before working capital $60M (H1 $139M), free cash flow $53M (H1 $18M), two Q2 cargoes averaging $92.8/bbl vs dated Brent $103.8 (July cargo post‑quarter $90 vs Brent $81), hedging ~30–50% of entitlement production on a 12‑month rolling basis, and an underlift of ~600,000 barrels at June; balance sheet metrics: net debt $212M, net debt/EBITDAX 0.5x, RBL outstanding ~$290M with $241M headroom, cash ~$78M and total liquidity ~$319–320M, and a third 2026 dividend declared taking YTD distributions to $75M (total $175M returned since the amalgamation).Meren Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 721.29M | 569.70M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 189.78M | 131.05M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | 390.01M | 317.16M | 29.80K | -31.90M | -27.00M | 197.60M |
| Net Income | -97.52M | -32.15M | -279.00K | 87.10K | -60.30M | 190.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.83B | 1.95B | 615.20M | 966.20M | 917.70M | 991.62M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 77.57M | 174.38M | 61.40M | 232.00M | 199.30M | 58.51M |
| Total Debt | 292.82M | 336.09M | 3.30M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 1.13B | 1.18B | 66.40M | 71.60M | 87.10M | 43.56M |
| Stockholders Equity | 704.55M | 764.51M | 548.80M | 894.60M | 830.60M | 948.06M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 224.79M | 339.03M | -40.90M | -53.30M | -16.30M | -14.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 246.59M | 339.44M | -40.90M | -53.30M | -16.30M | -10.21M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -63.60M | 314.31M | -61.30M | 114.70M | 220.20M | 187.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -369.29M | -538.46M | -68.40M | -29.10M | -63.20M | -159.12M |
Meren Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
2.08
Price Trends
2.05
Positive
2.19
Positive
2.03
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
67.06
Neutral
98.81
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.09, above the 50-day MA of 2.05, and above the 200-day MA of 2.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.81 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MER.
Meren Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$2.62B | 3.36 | 27.68% | 6.53% | 13.63% | 361.28% | |
71 Outperform | C$1.53B | -11.01 | -12.79% | 9.90% | 387.83% | 72.16% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$2.07B | 33.62 | 6.96% | 6.27% | 17.51% | -35.86% | |
57 Neutral | C$2.62B | 36.61 | 10.71% | ― | 76.79% | 82.39% | |
56 Neutral | C$1.97B | 34.45 | 4.95% | ― | 30.30% | -24.69% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:MER
Meren Energy
2.27
0.67
42.14%
TSE:KEL
Kelt Exploration
9.70
3.14
47.87%
TSE:PXT
Parex Resources
28.18
13.27
88.96%
TSE:CJ
Cardinal Energy
11.78
5.20
78.92%
TSE:SDE
Spartan Delta
12.89
8.15
171.94%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.