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Meren Energy Inc. (TSE:MER)
OTHER OTC:MER

Meren Energy (MER) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:MER

Meren Energy

(OTC:MER)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.00
▲(19.05% Upside)
The score is driven mainly by improved TTM fundamentals (strong revenue ramp, healthy margins, and positive free cash flow), tempered by historical volatility, a recent increase in leverage, and mixed cash-flow quality. Technicals are mildly supportive rather than strongly bullish, while valuation looks attractive on P/E but offers no dividend support; the OTCQX listing change is a modest positive.

Meren Energy (MER) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Meren Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAfrica Oil Corp (AOI) is an independent oil and gas company that focuses on exploration and production activities primarily in Africa. The company is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties. Its core operations are centered in Kenya and Nigeria, and it holds interests in various exploration blocks across the African continent.
How the Company Makes MoneyAfrica Oil Corp generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas reserves. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its operational fields. A significant portion of its income is derived from its working interests in oil-producing assets in Nigeria, which provide consistent cash flow through the sale of crude oil. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other exploration and production companies, allowing it to share risks and costs associated with large-scale projects. These collaborations also enhance its access to new technologies and resources, contributing to its overall earnings.

Meren Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view of Meren's performance. The company is demonstrating strong financial discipline with substantial dividend distributions and successful debt reduction. However, there are challenges with slightly softer production volumes and revised financial guidance due to lower oil prices.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Dividend Commitment
Meren is on track to deliver a $100 million annual dividend distribution, having already returned $75 million by Q3.
Successful Debt Reduction
Meren repaid $270 million of the RBL in H1 2025, with plans for further reductions, improving its financial strength and reducing interest expenses.
Positive Developments in Namibia
Progress on the Venus development project in Namibia with potential for the Final Investment Decision in H1 2026 and First Oil by 2029.
Increased Production from New Wells
Two new Egina wells came on stream, performing in line with expectations and aiding in offsetting natural field decline.
Strong Credit Profile
A net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6x, demonstrating financial strength with substantial liquidity.
Negative Updates
Slightly Softer Q2 Volumes
Q2 production volumes were softer due to temporary adjustments at Akpo and Egina driven by gas export restrictions and maintenance activities.
Reduced EBITDAX and Cash Flow Guidance
Revised EBITDAX and cash flow from operations guidance lowered due to a decrease in the estimated full-year average Dated Brent oil price.
Free Cash Flow Challenges
Free cash flow before debt service and shareholder distributions was approximately negative $19 million for Q2.
Company Guidance
During Meren's Second Quarter 2025 Results Presentation, the company provided guidance on various financial and operational metrics. Meren confirmed its commitment to a $100 million annual dividend distribution, with $75 million already returned to shareholders by the end of Q3 2025. The company also emphasized its focus on maintaining a robust balance sheet, having repaid $270 million of the RBL to minimize interest expenses, and reported an end-of-Q2 cash position of $266 million. Production guidance was slightly adjusted due to temporary factors, but the overall first-half performance aligned with expectations. Meren completed oil liftings at an average price of $64.2 per barrel in Q2, with 6 liftings planned for the remainder of the year. EBITDAX for Q2 was approximately $107 million, contributing to a year-to-date total of $248 million. The company revised its 2025 guidance, adjusting EBITDAX and cash flow estimates due to lower anticipated oil prices, with a forecasted full-year average Dated Brent price of $68.5 per barrel. Meren continues to prioritize cash management and deleveraging, reducing its RBL balance to $418 million post-Q2, and maintains a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6x.

Meren Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Africa Oil's financial performance reveals significant challenges, including no revenue generation, consistent losses, and negative cash flows. Despite a strong equity position, liquidity risks and sustainability concerns persist.
Income Statement
Africa Oil's income statement reveals significant challenges, as demonstrated by consistent negative EBIT and net income, with no total revenue across all periods. This indicates persistent financial distress and an inability to generate revenue, leading to negative profitability metrics.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a relatively strong equity position with a high equity ratio, indicating low leverage and a low debt-to-equity ratio. However, the company's declining total assets and cash reserves pose potential liquidity risks.
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates negative operating cash flows and free cash flows in the TTM, reflecting cash burn that could impact sustainability. The past year showed some improvement in cash management, yet overall, the free cash flow remains negative, signaling ongoing cash flow challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue362.40M0.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit114.20M0.000.000.000.000.00
EBITDA290.15M29.80K-31.90M-27.00M197.60M-228.44M
Net Income65.40M-279.00K87.10K-60.30M190.70M-17.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.13B615.20M966.20M917.70M991.62M910.50M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments176.70M61.40M232.00M199.30M58.51M38.74M
Total Debt300.70M3.30M0.000.000.00141.69M
Total Liabilities1.25B66.40M71.60M87.10M43.56M156.21M
Stockholders Equity881.30M548.80M894.60M830.60M948.06M754.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow121.60M-40.90M-53.30M-16.30M-14.79M-5.43M
Operating Cash Flow177.40M-40.90M-53.30M-16.30M-10.21M-5.35M
Investing Cash Flow372.70M-61.30M114.70M220.20M187.70M-394.27M
Financing Cash Flow-508.50M-68.40M-29.10M-63.20M-159.12M110.64M

Meren Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.68
Price Trends
50DMA
1.76
Positive
100DMA
1.75
Positive
200DMA
1.71
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Negative
RSI
58.74
Neutral
STOCH
63.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MER, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.80, below the 50-day MA of 1.76, and below the 200-day MA of 1.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MER.

Meren Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$1.76B11.305.77%8.48%-20.07%-53.33%
72
Outperform
C$1.38B17.838.46%8.25%-9.30%-26.09%
68
Neutral
C$1.24B9.569.15%0.00%
67
Neutral
$1.51B39.787.22%17.31%-75.56%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
61
Neutral
C$1.47B25.555.22%9.92%2.74%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:MER
Meren Energy
1.91
0.12
6.76%
TSE:KEL
Kelt Exploration
7.55
0.29
3.99%
TSE:PXT
Parex Resources
19.01
5.29
38.60%
TSE:CJ
Cardinal Energy
8.81
2.61
42.10%
TSE:SDE
Spartan Delta
7.89
3.92
98.74%

Meren Energy Corporate Events

Delistings and Listing Changes
Meren Energy Begins Trading on OTCQX Best Market
Positive
Nov 3, 2025

Meren Energy Inc. has announced that its common shares have begun trading on the OTCQX Best Market in the United States under the ticker symbol ‘MRNFF’. This move aims to enhance transparency and accessibility for U.S. investors, as the company continues to trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stockholm under the symbol ‘MER’. The upgrade to the OTCQX Market reflects Meren’s commitment to high financial standards and corporate governance, potentially strengthening its market position and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MER) stock is a Buy with a C$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Africa Oil stock, see the TSE:MER Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Meren Energy Updates Share Capital Structure
Neutral
Oct 31, 2025

Meren Energy Inc. has updated its share capital and voting rights following the issuance of 29,028 common shares due to the vesting of performance share units. As of October 31, 2025, the company now has 675,541,593 common shares issued and outstanding. This update is in compliance with the Swedish Financial Instruments Trading Act and reflects the company’s ongoing operational developments.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MER) stock is a Buy with a C$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Africa Oil stock, see the TSE:MER Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 30, 2025