Cardinal Energy (CJ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.43B
• Dividend Yield: 8.25%
• Average Volume (3M): 897.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -9.30%
• EPS Growth: -26.09%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 177
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 161,175,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,053,157
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 897,546
• PEG Ratio: 3.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.69
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$8.69
• Price Target Upside: -2.03% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: C$10.00 ▲(12.74% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins and cash generation despite recent TTM revenue/FCF softness and higher leverage versus prior periods). Technicals add support with price above key moving averages and neutral-to-slightly positive momentum. Valuation is helped by the high dividend yield, but a mid-to-high P/E for a cyclical business limits upside in this component.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, which can enhance long-term profitability and market position.

Balance Sheet Health

A strong equity ratio and low debt-to-equity ratio reflect financial stability, providing Cardinal Energy with the flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.

Cash Flow Generation

Robust cash flow growth supports operational sustainability and strategic investments, enhancing the company's ability to fund expansion and return value to shareholders.

Negative Factors

Net Profit Margin

A relatively modest net profit margin indicates potential inefficiencies or cost pressures, which could limit profitability and competitiveness if not addressed.

Earnings Volatility

Lack of EBIT data suggests potential earnings volatility, which can create uncertainty in financial performance assessments and investor confidence.

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue growth can signal challenges in market demand or competitive pressures, potentially impacting long-term growth prospects and operational efficiency.

Cardinal Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cardinal Energy Ltd. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and production of low decline light, medium, and heavy quality oil, and natural gas in Western Canada. It has operations in the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. As of February 24, 2022, the company had total proved plus probable oil and gas reserves are 110,391 thousand barrels of oil equivalent. Cardinal Energy Ltd. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Cardinal Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company operates a diverse portfolio of assets that allows it to capitalize on various market conditions, including the pricing of different hydrocarbon products. Key revenue streams include the direct sales of produced hydrocarbons to refineries and gas processing facilities, as well as transportation and marketing arrangements that facilitate the delivery of products to market. Additionally, Cardinal Energy may benefit from hedging strategies to protect against volatile commodity prices, and they engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that can enhance operational efficiency and expand production capabilities, further contributing to their earnings.

Cardinal Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid overall fundamentals supported by healthy profitability (TTM gross margin ~46%, EBITDA margin ~40%) and strong cash generation (meaningful TTM free cash flow). The score is tempered by TTM revenue decline (-7.8%), softer net margin (~14% vs ~18% in 2024), lower ROE (~8%), and a step-up in leverage versus 2023–2024 (debt-to-equity ~0.24 vs ~0.05–0.10), reflecting cyclical volatility.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined (-7.8%) versus the prior year, and profitability softened (net margin ~14% in TTM vs ~18% in 2024). That said, the business remains solidly profitable with healthy TTM gross margin (~46%) and strong EBITDA margin (~40%). Results have been volatile across the cycle (e.g., very strong 2021–2022 vs a large loss in 2020), which tempers the score despite current profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains manageable with low-to-moderate debt relative to equity (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.24) and a sizable equity base. However, leverage has stepped up versus 2023–2024 (debt-to-equity ~0.05–0.10 previously), and returns on equity have moderated in TTM (~8%) from higher levels in 2021–2024—suggesting less efficiency and/or a less favorable commodity backdrop.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong: TTM operating cash flow (~$216M) more than covers EBIT (~1.86x), and TTM free cash flow is meaningful (~$141M). Still, free cash flow declined in TTM (-12.9%) and free cash flow is less than net income in TTM (~65%), indicating some working-capital or reinvestment drag versus reported earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	533.03M	611.12M	481.12M	741.84M	448.75M	226.46M
Gross Profit	243.60M	392.29M	265.00M	489.37M	286.82M	126.13M
EBITDA	211.73M	252.94M	253.64M	410.56M	385.95M	-171.31M
Net Income	76.53M	108.35M	103.60M	302.69M	284.42M	-363.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.40B	1.30B	1.19B	1.16B	1.08B	749.13M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	4.88M	4.09M	3.73M	3.51M	2.88M
Total Debt	215.57M	90.31M	50.10M	35.77M	157.59M	239.13M
Total Liabilities	512.23M	378.72M	267.16M	229.64M	356.60M	376.29M
Stockholders Equity	890.76M	918.26M	920.69M	925.37M	719.23M	372.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	141.27M	144.26M	125.83M	216.61M	68.72M	12.02M
Operating Cash Flow	216.40M	247.54M	230.26M	337.26M	125.12M	43.52M
Investing Cash Flow	-239.68M	-163.97M	-114.64M	-116.18M	-46.57M	-50.75M
Financing Cash Flow	23.28M	-83.57M	-115.63M	-221.08M	-78.55M	7.22M

Cardinal Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.87
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CJ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.71, above the 50-day MA of 8.72, and above the 200-day MA of 7.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CJ.

Cardinal Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PXT	76 Outperform	C$1.95B	12.48	5.77%	8.48%	-20.07%	-53.33%
CJ	72 Outperform	C$1.43B	18.51	8.46%	8.25%	-9.30%	-26.09%
SGY	69 Neutral	C$729.71M	16.39	5.87%	7.59%	-7.36%	―
SDE	67 Neutral	C$1.84B	46.47	7.22%	―	17.31%	-75.56%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
KEL	61 Neutral	C$1.56B	26.71	5.22%	―	9.92%	2.74%

Cardinal Energy Corporate Events

Cardinal Energy Lifts Output at Reford SAGD, Maintains Dividend Amid Price Volatility

Cardinal Energy Ltd. has confirmed a cash dividend of $0.06 per common share for January, payable in mid-February, underscoring its commitment to ongoing shareholder returns despite recent volatility in crude oil prices. The company reported that its Reford SAGD project has surpassed its 6,000 bbl/d nameplate capacity about two months ahead of schedule, with expected output of 6,500 bbl/d in the first quarter of 2026, which is anticipated to lift overall corporate production to record levels. In response to market uncertainty, Cardinal is deferring its formal 2026 guidance and plans to operate on a net debt neutral basis, prioritizing capital toward essential drilling, completion and maintenance work, while indicating that any additional cash flow from stronger oil prices would be directed to expanded conventional and thermal activity and further debt reduction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJ) stock is a Buy with a C$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cardinal Energy stock, see the TSE:CJ Stock Forecast page.

Cardinal Energy Declares December Dividend

Cardinal Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly dividend of $0.06 per common share for December, payable on January 15, 2026, to shareholders of record on December 31, 2025. This dividend, declared by the Board of Directors, is designated as an ‘eligible dividend’ for Canadian income tax purposes, reflecting the company’s commitment to providing shareholder value and its stable financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJ) stock is a Buy with a C$10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cardinal Energy stock, see the TSE:CJ Stock Forecast page.

Cardinal Energy Announces November Dividend and Strong Initial Production at Reford

Cardinal Energy Ltd. has announced a monthly dividend of $0.06 per common share for November, payable on December 15, 2025. The company also reported that production at the Reford Central Production Facility has exceeded initial forecasts, averaging approximately 4,000 barrels per day of heavy oil. This strong performance at an early stage reflects Cardinal’s disciplined reservoir management aimed at maximizing long-term value and recovery.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJ) stock is a Buy with a C$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cardinal Energy stock, see the TSE:CJ Stock Forecast page.

Cardinal Energy Reports Q3 2025 Results, Advances Reford SAGD Project

Cardinal Energy Ltd. reported its third-quarter 2025 results, highlighting a production rate of 20,772 boe/d and an adjusted funds flow of $47.3 million. The company focused on completing the Reford SAGD project, which is now in the warm-up phase, and maintained its shareholder return strategy with consistent dividends. Despite a decrease in commodity pricing and slightly lower production, Cardinal managed to reduce net operating expenses and complete projects on budget and schedule, impacting its financial stability and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CJ) stock is a Buy with a C$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cardinal Energy stock, see the TSE:CJ Stock Forecast page.