Birchcliff Energy (BIR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.64B
• Dividend Yield: 4.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 710.03K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: -15.60%
• EPS Growth: 85.49%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 231
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 273,102,080
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 724,072
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 710,030
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.64
• 1Y Price Target: $8.13
• Price Target Upside: 33.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: C$6.00 ▼(-1.15% Downside)

Birchcliff Energy's overall stock score reflects a combination of mixed financial performance and bearish technical indicators. While the company has shown revenue growth and improved profitability, operational challenges and cash flow issues remain significant concerns. The technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, which could further pressure the stock. The valuation is moderate, but not compelling enough to offset the operational risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Birchcliff's Q2/25 results slightly exceeded expectations, with production and cash flow surpassing consensus and capital spending falling below expectations.

Operational Efficiency

Operational changes, such as optimized well placement, improved wellbore and cluster designs, and maintenance optimization resulted in notable enhancements in drill speeds and costs, as well as completion performance.

Negative Factors

Debt and Financial Obligations

The company's deleveraging pace has been hindered by weaker natural gas prices and a heavier capital spending program.

Dividend and Gas Prices

Birchcliff's prior dividend obligation coupled with weaker gas prices have negatively impacted the company.

Birchcliff Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Birchcliff Energy Ltd., an intermediate oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, light oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids in Western Canada. The company holds interests in the Montney/Doig resource play located approximately 95 km northwest of Grande Prairie, Alberta. Its asset portfolio also includes various other properties, including the Elmworth and Progress areas of Alberta. As of December 31, 2021, the company had interests in various gas plants, oil batteries, compressors, facilities, and infrastructure; and 200,712 net acres of undeveloped land, as well as proved plus probable reserves of 1,022 million barrels of oil equivalent. Birchcliff Energy Ltd. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Birchcliff Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company’s revenue model is largely driven by the production volumes of these commodities, which are sold to various market participants including utilities, industrial customers, and other energy companies. Key revenue streams include the sale of natural gas, which typically constitutes the largest portion of their income, followed by crude oil and natural gas liquids. Birchcliff also engages in hedging strategies to manage price volatility, which can provide additional financial stability. Significant partnerships with midstream companies for transportation and processing services further enhance their earnings potential, ensuring efficient delivery to market and optimal pricing for their products.

Birchcliff Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Birchcliff Energy demonstrates solid financial health with strong profitability and manageable leverage. The income statement shows robust margins, although revenue growth is inconsistent. The balance sheet reveals a strong equity position and low leverage risk. Cash flow performance is mixed, with negative free cash flows posing potential liquidity concerns, despite strong operating cash generation relative to net income.

Income Statement

Birchcliff Energy shows moderate financial performance with improving revenue and profit margins. The TTM figures indicate a Gross Profit Margin of 34.34% and a Net Profit Margin of 20.32%, suggesting healthy profitability. However, the Revenue Growth Rate has been inconsistent, with a noticeable decline in 2023. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable at 15.64% and 70.46% respectively in TTM, demonstrating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates strong equity positioning with an Equity Ratio of 64.15% as of TTM, reflecting financial stability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio has improved over time and stands at 0.28, underscoring manageable leverage. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) at 6.07% in TTM could be higher to signal better profitability for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some challenges, with negative Free Cash Flow in TTM and a decline in Free Cash Flow Growth Rate. Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is robust at 1.93, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is negative, indicating potential liquidity issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	673.30M	640.92M	700.62M	1.36B	953.13M	542.19M
Gross Profit	231.24M	207.84M	177.00M	859.88M	549.53M	213.34M
EBITDA	474.53M	368.03M	268.70M	1.09B	657.49M	166.53M
Net Income	136.86M	56.10M	9.78M	656.83M	314.68M	-57.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.51B	3.43B	3.18B	3.17B	2.96B	2.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	77.00K	50.00K	55.00K	74.00K	63.00K	60.00K
Total Debt	636.25M	686.93M	384.71M	145.57M	516.30M	748.40M
Total Liabilities	1.26B	1.24B	951.47M	756.71M	1.04B	1.27B
Stockholders Equity	2.26B	2.20B	2.23B	2.41B	1.92B	1.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-68.32M	-77.54M	12.53M	560.65M	284.89M	-101.49M
Operating Cash Flow	264.55M	203.71M	320.53M	925.27M	515.37M	188.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-262.06M	-293.36M	-338.86M	-338.54M	-247.38M	-278.66M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.46M	89.64M	18.32M	-586.73M	-267.98M	90.47M

Birchcliff Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.07
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:BIR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.49, below the 50-day MA of 6.91, and above the 200-day MA of 6.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:BIR.

Birchcliff Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BIR	55 Neutral	$1.64B	21.31	3.27%	4.28%	-15.60%	85.49%
Sector *	54 Neutral	C$4.15B	0.97	16.40%	5.23%	10.45%	-57.37%
AAVVF	―	$1.22B	31.10	3.28%	―	―	―
BTE	―	$1.51B	5.79	9.05%	3.27%	―	―
VET	―	$1.09B	―	4.40%	5.03%	―	―
PRMRF	―	$2.04B	1.99	44.56%	5.42%	―	―
CDDRF	―	$1.16B	8.81	25.93%	6.02%	―	―