Birchcliff Energy (BIR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.89B
• Dividend Yield: 1.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 855.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -18.20%
• EPS Growth: 260.40%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 231
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 272,248,020
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 793,960
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 855,020
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $8.39
• Price Target Upside: 17.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: C$7.50 ▲(4.75%Upside)

The overall stock score of 68.9 reflects a solid technical outlook and reasonable valuation, offset by mixed financial performance, particularly concerns in EBIT margin and free cash flow. The lack of earnings call and corporate events data means these factors couldn't be evaluated.

Positive Factors

Analyst Confidence

An analyst reiterates a BUY rating and sets a target price of $7.50, reflecting confidence in the company's valuation and growth prospects.

Financial Position

The company is expected to drive net debt down by approximately 30%, providing a stronger financial position.

Free Cash Flow

A capital-heavy first half of the year is anticipated to lead to an increase in free cash flow in the second half, offering more financial flexibility.

Negative Factors

Leverage and Growth Plans

If lower natural gas prices persist, the company's leverage is expected to rise and growth plans may be pushed back.

Market Challenges

Shares are expected to remain challenged until LNG Canada comes into service and begins to tighten the supply-demand balance.

Natural Gas Prices

Birchcliff's lack of fixed hedges has kept it fully exposed to natural gas prices, which may constrain its ability to increase shareholder returns and grow production.

Birchcliff Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Birchcliff Energy Ltd. is a Calgary-based oil and natural gas company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources in Western Canada. The company focuses on its core areas, which include the Peace River Arch region of Alberta, and is committed to sustainable and efficient resource development. Birchcliff Energy operates primarily within the energy sector, providing essential hydrocarbons that meet the energy demands of both domestic and international markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Birchcliff Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its extensive asset base in Western Canada. The company's revenue model is centered around the production and sale of these hydrocarbons, which are sold to various markets at prevailing market prices. Birchcliff's earnings are influenced by factors such as commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. The company also engages in hedging activities to mitigate the impact of volatile commodity prices. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in exploration and development projects further enhance its revenue potential by spreading operational risks and leveraging additional expertise and resources.

Birchcliff Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Birchcliff Energy shows mixed financial performance with improved net profit margin and ROE. However, challenges in EBIT margin and negative free cash flow indicate potential operational inefficiencies and cash flow management issues. Increased leverage presents a risk in a volatile industry.

Income Statement

Birchcliff Energy's revenue has shown volatility, with a decrease in 2024 compared to 2023 after a high in 2022. The net profit margin has improved significantly from 2023 to 2024, indicating better cost management or pricing strategies despite lower overall revenue. However, the EBIT margin for 2024 is concerning at 0%, suggesting operational challenges. The EBITDA margin remains strong, highlighting effective cost control at the EBITDA level.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased, reflecting higher leverage, which could pose risk if revenues decline. The equity ratio remains strong, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets. Return on equity has improved significantly in 2024, suggesting enhanced profitability for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has turned negative in 2024, indicating potential investment in growth or operational inefficiencies. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, suggesting that the core operations are generating cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting the challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
640.92M	700.62M	1.36B	953.13M	542.19M
	Gross Profit
207.84M	177.00M	859.88M	549.53M	213.34M
	EBIT
11.67M	120.57M	661.28M	377.67M	53.41M
	EBITDA
368.03M	268.70M	1.09B	657.49M	166.53M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
56.10M	9.78M	656.83M	314.68M	-57.82M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
50.00K	55.00K	74.00K	63.00K	60.00K
	Total Assets
3.43B	3.18B	3.17B	2.96B	2.90B
	Total Debt
686.93M	384.71M	145.57M	516.30M	748.40M
	Net Debt
686.88M	384.66M	145.50M	516.24M	748.34M
	Total Liabilities
1.24B	951.47M	756.71M	1.04B	1.27B
	Stockholders Equity
2.20B	2.23B	2.41B	1.92B	1.63B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-77.54M	12.53M	560.65M	284.89M	-101.49M
	Operating Cash Flow
203.71M	320.53M	925.27M	515.37M	188.18M
	Investing Cash Flow
-293.36M	-338.86M	-338.54M	-247.38M	-278.66M
	Financing Cash Flow
89.64M	18.32M	-586.73M	-267.98M	90.47M

Birchcliff Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:BIR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.72, above the 50-day MA of 6.29, and above the 200-day MA of 5.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.35 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:BIR.

Birchcliff Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWX	81 Outperform	$1.61B	8.01	29.87%	6.51%	20.48%	21.66%
POU	77 Outperform	$2.92B	1.90	48.97%	2.89%	2.95%	351.05%
BTE	75 Outperform	C$2.04B	6.64	8.02%	3.07%	10.55%	―
BIR	69 Neutral	$1.89B	13.70	6.10%	1.59%	-18.20%	260.40%
AAV	67 Neutral	$1.96B	78.00	-1.90%	―	12.70%	-131.99%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.37B	3.39	-4.49%	10.01%	0.82%	-49.15%
VET	56 Neutral	$1.62B	―	-1.19%	4.73%	1.04%	94.48%