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Birchcliff Energy (TSE:BIR)
TSX:BIR

Birchcliff Energy (BIR) AI Stock Analysis

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Birchcliff Energy

(TSX:BIR)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$7.50
▲(8.85%Upside)
The overall stock score of 68.9 reflects a solid technical outlook and reasonable valuation, offset by mixed financial performance, particularly concerns in EBIT margin and free cash flow. The lack of earnings call and corporate events data means these factors couldn't be evaluated.
Positive Factors
Analyst Confidence
An analyst reiterates a BUY rating and sets a target price of $7.50, reflecting confidence in the company's valuation and growth prospects.
Financial Position
The company is expected to drive net debt down by approximately 30%, providing a stronger financial position.
Free Cash Flow
A capital-heavy first half of the year is anticipated to lead to an increase in free cash flow in the second half, offering more financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Leverage and Growth Plans
If lower natural gas prices persist, the company's leverage is expected to rise and growth plans may be pushed back.
Market Challenges
Shares are expected to remain challenged until LNG Canada comes into service and begins to tighten the supply-demand balance.
Natural Gas Prices
Birchcliff's lack of fixed hedges has kept it fully exposed to natural gas prices, which may constrain its ability to increase shareholder returns and grow production.

Birchcliff Energy (BIR) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Birchcliff Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBirchcliff Energy Ltd., an intermediate oil and natural gas company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, light oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids in Western Canada. The company holds interests in the Montney/Doig resource play located approximately 95 km northwest of Grande Prairie, Alberta. Its asset portfolio also includes various other properties, including the Elmworth and Progress areas of Alberta. As of December 31, 2021, the company had interests in various gas plants, oil batteries, compressors, facilities, and infrastructure; and 200,712 net acres of undeveloped land, as well as proved plus probable reserves of 1,022 million barrels of oil equivalent. Birchcliff Energy Ltd. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyBirchcliff Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its extensive asset base in Western Canada. The company's revenue model is centered around the production and sale of these hydrocarbons, which are sold to various markets at prevailing market prices. Birchcliff's earnings are influenced by factors such as commodity prices, production volumes, and operational efficiencies. The company also engages in hedging activities to mitigate the impact of volatile commodity prices. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in exploration and development projects further enhance its revenue potential by spreading operational risks and leveraging additional expertise and resources.

Birchcliff Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Birchcliff Energy shows a mixed financial performance with strengths in improved net profit margin and ROE, but challenges in EBIT margin and free cash flow. The increased leverage is a potential risk, particularly in a volatile industry like fossil fuels. Overall, while there are positive signs of profitability, cash flow management and operational efficiency need attention.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Birchcliff Energy's revenue has shown volatility, with a decrease in 2024 compared to 2023 after a high in 2022. The net profit margin has improved significantly from 2023 to 2024, indicating better cost management or pricing strategies despite lower overall revenue. However, the EBIT margin for 2024 is concerning at 0%, suggesting operational challenges. The EBITDA margin remains strong, highlighting effective cost control at the EBITDA level.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased, reflecting higher leverage, which could pose risk if revenues decline. The equity ratio remains strong, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets. Return on equity has improved significantly in 2024, suggesting enhanced profitability for shareholders.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Free cash flow has turned negative in 2024, indicating potential investment in growth or operational inefficiencies. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains positive, suggesting that the core operations are generating cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting the challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
640.92M700.62M1.36B953.13M542.19M
Gross Profit
207.84M177.00M859.88M549.53M213.34M
EBIT
0.00120.57M661.28M377.67M53.41M
EBITDA
362.23M268.70M1.09B657.49M166.53M
Net Income Common Stockholders
56.10M9.78M656.83M314.68M-57.82M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
50.00K55.00K74.00K63.00K60.00K
Total Assets
3.43B3.18B3.17B2.96B2.90B
Total Debt
686.93M384.71M145.57M516.30M748.40M
Net Debt
686.88M384.66M145.50M516.24M748.34M
Total Liabilities
1.24B951.47M756.71M1.04B1.27B
Stockholders Equity
2.20B2.23B2.41B1.92B1.63B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-77.54M12.53M560.65M284.89M-101.49M
Operating Cash Flow
203.71M320.53M925.27M515.37M188.18M
Investing Cash Flow
-293.36M-338.86M-338.54M-247.38M-278.66M
Financing Cash Flow
89.64M18.32M-586.73M-267.98M90.47M

Birchcliff Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.89
Price Trends
50DMA
6.26
Positive
100DMA
6.01
Positive
200DMA
5.66
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.18
Negative
RSI
65.74
Neutral
STOCH
77.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:BIR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.58, above the 50-day MA of 6.26, and above the 200-day MA of 5.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:BIR.

Birchcliff Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSBIR
69
Neutral
$1.88B13.626.10%4.75%-18.20%260.40%
57
Neutral
$7.23B3.16-4.49%5.63%0.82%-49.15%
$1.43B77.34-1.90%
BTBTE
$1.37B6.118.02%3.69%
VEVET
$1.11B-1.19%4.97%
$2.09B1.9348.97%21.99%
$1.14B7.8529.87%6.28%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:BIR
Birchcliff Energy
6.89
0.87
14.38%
AAVVF
Advantage Energy
8.55
0.15
1.79%
BTE
Baytex Energy
1.78
-1.56
-46.71%
VET
Vermilion Energy
7.20
-3.91
-35.19%
PRMRF
Paramount Resources
14.52
2.64
22.22%
CDDRF
Headwater Exploration
4.76
-0.22
-4.42%
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.