Advantage Energy (AAV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.85B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 468.70K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.10
• Revenue Growth: 27.84%
• EPS Growth: 28.87%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 85
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 166,941,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 338,278
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 468,700
• PEG Ratio: -0.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.94
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$14.17
• Price Target Upside: 26.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: C$12.00 ▲(7.53% Upside)

Advantage Energy's overall score is driven by strong operational efficiency and positive earnings call sentiment, which are offset by bearish technical indicators and high valuation concerns. The company's ability to navigate low pricing environments and strategic hedging are strengths, but challenges in revenue growth and cash flow generation need addressing.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

High EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate efficient management and cost control, contributing to long-term profitability and competitiveness.

Market Diversification

Diversification into downstream markets helps stabilize revenue streams and reduce dependency on volatile commodity prices, supporting sustainable growth.

Production Growth Outlook

Projected production growth supports revenue expansion and enhances market position, contributing to long-term business sustainability.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Declining revenue growth suggests challenges in market demand or pricing, which could impact long-term financial performance and strategic initiatives.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow indicates difficulties in cash generation, potentially limiting investment in growth opportunities and financial flexibility.

Low AECO Prices Impact

Persistently low AECO prices can pressure margins and revenue, challenging the company's ability to maintain profitability in the long term.

Advantage Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Advantage Energy Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, exploits, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Province of Alberta, Canada. The company focuses on the development and production of oil and natural gas resource that includes 228 net sections covering an area of 145,920 net acres of Doig/Montney rights in Glacier, Valhalla, Progress, and Pipestone/Wembley. It provides natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids primarily through marketing companies. The company was formerly known as Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. and changed its name to Advantage Energy Ltd. in May 2021. Advantage Energy Ltd. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Advantage Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids extracted from its production operations. The company has a diversified revenue model that includes long-term contracts with customers as well as spot market sales, which allows it to capitalize on fluctuating commodity prices. Significant revenue streams come from its strategic focus on high-return projects in the Montney formation, where it has established a strong operational presence. Additionally, Advantage Energy benefits from partnerships with other industry players and infrastructure providers, which enhance its market access and operational efficiencies. The company's financial performance is also supported by effective hedging strategies to manage commodity price risks, ensuring stable cash flows over time.

Advantage Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Advantage Energy shows a mixed financial performance. Positive revenue growth is overshadowed by negative net profit margins and cash flow challenges. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but operational efficiency improvements are needed.

Income Statement

Advantage Energy shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a positive revenue growth rate of 11.07%, suggesting a recovery trend. However, the net profit margin is negative at -4.84%, indicating challenges in profitability. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 48.47%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined compared to previous years, reflecting increased operational costs or reduced pricing power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable at 0.45, indicating a balanced leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -1.88%, highlighting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -16.40%, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively strong at 0.85, suggesting that operating activities are generating cash, albeit not enough to cover free cash flow deficits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	676.24M	550.10M	509.42M	964.37M	492.04M	245.09M
Gross Profit	333.70M	298.14M	330.99M	719.44M	357.72M	123.72M
EBITDA	369.35M	283.19M	316.34M	597.24M	660.25M	-237.45M
Net Income	60.56M	21.72M	101.60M	338.67M	411.52M	-284.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.03B	2.95B	2.30B	2.22B	1.99B	1.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.47M	20.15M	19.26M	48.94M	25.24M	3.28M
Total Debt	830.24M	698.03M	353.98M	192.90M	167.34M	249.38M
Total Liabilities	1.35B	1.31B	742.63M	652.28M	534.87M	493.55M
Stockholders Equity	1.68B	1.64B	1.56B	1.56B	1.46B	1.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-50.97M	-85.53M	49.73M	260.59M	85.31M	-57.91M
Operating Cash Flow	339.48M	217.53M	323.35M	502.38M	223.15M	100.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-376.69M	-697.73M	-282.76M	-269.58M	-117.78M	-158.62M
Financing Cash Flow	43.47M	481.08M	-70.26M	-209.09M	-83.41M	48.09M

Advantage Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.16
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AAV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.55, below the 50-day MA of 11.88, and below the 200-day MA of 11.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AAV.

Advantage Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWX	79 Outperform	C$2.27B	13.05	23.55%	4.58%	6.44%	-6.74%
PXT	76 Outperform	$1.76B	11.30	5.77%	8.48%	-20.07%	-53.33%
BIR	70 Neutral	C$1.95B	26.45	3.16%	1.59%	-9.76%	374.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
VET	64 Neutral	$1.76B	-7.66	2.34%	4.60%	-2.32%	70.14%
KEL	61 Neutral	C$1.47B	25.55	5.22%	―	9.92%	2.74%
AAV	58 Neutral	C$1.85B	30.83	3.69%	―	27.84%	28.87%

Advantage Energy Corporate Events

Advantage Energy Unveils 2026 Budget with Focus on Growth and Shareholder Value

Advantage Energy Ltd. has announced its 2026 budget, highlighting a strategic focus on increasing adjusted funds flow per share through high-return development drilling. The company expects a production growth of approximately 6%, with a significant boost anticipated following the commissioning of the Progress Gas Plant and the turnaround of the Glacier Gas Plant. Advantage plans to allocate all free cash flow to share repurchases once net debt targets are met, aiming for a 14% increase in production per share. The budget outlines a capital spending plan between $300 million and $330 million, with a focus on gas drilling and infrastructure improvements. This strategic plan positions Advantage Energy to strengthen its market position and deliver enhanced value to its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AAV) stock is a Buy with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Advantage Energy stock, see the TSE:AAV Stock Forecast page.

Advantage Energy Reports Resilient Q3 2025 Results Amidst Low AECO Prices

Advantage Energy Ltd. reported its third-quarter 2025 financial and operating results, highlighting a cash flow neutral position despite historically low AECO prices. The company managed to maintain steady capital programs and achieved exceptional drilling results at its Glacier site, reflecting its strategic focus on maximizing free cash flow and operational efficiency. Advantage’s proactive curtailment strategy during weak pricing periods led to financial benefits, while its hedging strategy aims to stabilize future production revenues. The appointment of Geoff Keyser as Vice President, Development, underscores the company’s commitment to strengthening its leadership team.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AAV) stock is a Hold with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Advantage Energy stock, see the TSE:AAV Stock Forecast page.