Advantage Energy (AAV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.90B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 589.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 78.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: 12.70%
• EPS Growth: -131.99%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 85
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 62
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 167,015,010
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 501,994
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 589,764
• PEG Ratio: 0.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -28.20
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $13.06
• Price Target Upside: 14.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: C$13.00 ▲(13.54%Upside)

The most significant strengths are the positive corporate events and strong technical momentum, which support future growth potential. However, financial performance and valuation concerns due to profitability challenges weigh on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Asset Quality

Advantage Energy Ltd. holds one of the best natural gas assets in the AB Montney region, highlighting its strong potential in the market.

Financial Strategy

The company is well-positioned to resume share buybacks upon meeting its C$450m net debt target.

Operational Efficiency

Efficiency realizations from the Charlie Lake acquisition helped reduce per-unit operating costs toward the lower end of the guidance range.

Negative Factors

Financial Leverage

Higher leverage post-acquisition has frustrated investors due to the deferral of the buyback program.

Investor Sentiment

Investors are focused on developments from the special committee of independent directors to unlock embedded value within the company.

Advantage Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Advantage Energy Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, exploits, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Province of Alberta, Canada. The company focuses on the development and production of oil and natural gas resource that includes 228 net sections covering an area of 145,920 net acres of Doig/Montney rights in Glacier, Valhalla, Progress, and Pipestone/Wembley. It provides natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids primarily through marketing companies. The company was formerly known as Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. and changed its name to Advantage Energy Ltd. in May 2021. Advantage Energy Ltd. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Advantage Energy generates revenue through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids extracted from its operations in Western Canada. The company capitalizes on market demand for these energy products by optimizing production and maintaining cost-effective operations. Key revenue streams include long-term supply contracts and spot market sales, which are influenced by global commodity prices and regional market conditions. Advantage Energy may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration and production capabilities, further contributing to its earnings.

Advantage Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Advantage Energy's financial performance is moderate. Despite revenue growth, the negative net profit margin and ROE indicate profitability challenges. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but cash flow generation is weak, as shown by the negative free cash flow.

Income Statement

The income statement shows moderate performance with some fluctuations. The gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) was 48.47%, while the net profit margin was negative at -4.84%, indicating profitability challenges. Revenue growth from the previous annual report to TTM was 14.36%, showing moderate growth. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins for TTM were 10.86% and 38.93%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency but with pressures on the bottom line.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects relatively stable financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio for TTM is 0.45, which indicates a conservative leverage position. Return on equity (ROE) is negative at -1.90%, showing pressure on shareholder returns. The equity ratio is 54.20%, demonstrating a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement highlights some concerns. The free cash flow growth rate from the previous annual report to TTM is 20.75%, indicating improvement, but free cash flow remains negative. The operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is -8.97, suggesting challenges in converting income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.23, showing limited cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	629.09M	550.10M	509.42M	964.37M	492.04M	245.09M
Gross Profit	304.91M	298.14M	330.99M	719.44M	357.72M	123.72M
EBITDA	244.84M	286.02M	316.34M	597.24M	660.25M	-237.45M
Net Income	-30.47M	21.72M	101.60M	338.67M	411.52M	-284.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.96B	2.95B	2.30B	2.22B	1.99B	1.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	46.85M	20.15M	19.26M	48.94M	25.24M	3.28M
Total Debt	717.04M	698.03M	353.98M	192.90M	167.34M	249.38M
Total Liabilities	1.36B	1.31B	742.63M	652.28M	534.87M	493.55M
Stockholders Equity	1.61B	1.64B	1.56B	1.56B	1.46B	1.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-67.80M	-85.53M	49.73M	260.59M	85.31M	-57.91M
Operating Cash Flow	273.11M	217.53M	323.35M	502.38M	223.15M	100.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-726.22M	-697.73M	-282.76M	-269.58M	-117.78M	-158.62M
Financing Cash Flow	480.86M	481.08M	-70.26M	-209.09M	-83.41M	48.09M

Advantage Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.45
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AAV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.89, above the 50-day MA of 11.25, and above the 200-day MA of 9.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AAV.

Advantage Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AAV	69 Neutral	$1.90B	78.00	-1.90%	―	12.70%	-131.99%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$15.27B	10.03	6.34%	5.16%	4.13%	-66.99%
BTE		$1.52B	6.77	8.02%	3.31%	―	―
VET		$1.19B	―	-1.19%	4.90%	―	―
BIREF		$1.37B	14.04	6.10%	1.68%	―	―
CDDRF		$1.19B	8.22	29.87%	6.39%	―	―
FRHLF		$1.54B	13.27	15.22%	8.36%	―	―

Advantage Energy Corporate Events

Entropy Expands Carbon Storage Operations with Strategic Acquisition

Entropy Inc. has entered a definitive agreement to acquire interests in three carbon storage hubs in Saskatchewan and Alberta for $20 million, with additional contingent payments. This acquisition, funded through convertible debentures from strategic investment agreements, will expand Entropy’s operations and customer base, enhancing its commitment to carbon capture and sequestration in Canada. The company continues to advance its Glacier gas plant operations, with Phase 2 expected to reach commercial operations by Q2 2026, despite challenges from tariffs and inflation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AAV) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Advantage Energy stock, see the TSE:AAV Stock Forecast page.

Advantage Energy Announces Director Election Results at Annual Meeting

Advantage Energy Ltd. held its annual general meeting on May 6, 2025, where shareholders approved the election of ten directors to serve until the next annual meeting. The meeting saw a high turnout with 83.52% of outstanding common shares represented. Notably, Stephen E. Balog and Andy J. Mah retired from the Board, and Advantage expressed gratitude for their contributions.

Advantage Energy Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results, Eyes Future Growth

Advantage Energy Ltd. reported strong financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, with cash from operating activities at $122.9 million and adjusted funds flow exceeding expectations due to asset acquisitions and cost reductions. The company achieved record production levels, particularly in liquids, and reduced operating costs, positioning itself well for future growth. Advantage has hedged a significant portion of its production for 2025 and beyond, and aims to maximize adjusted funds flow per share while focusing on debt reduction and share buybacks. The company anticipates generating over $500 million in free cash flow over the next three years, leveraging its exceptional assets and strategic market positioning.