Advantage Energy (AAV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.99B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 505.04K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 27.84%
• EPS Growth: 28.87%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 85
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 166,941,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 580,959
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 505,043
• PEG Ratio: -0.95
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.94
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.01
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.39
• 1Y Price Target: $13.37
• Price Target Upside: 8.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.61
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $767.42M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: C$12.50 ▲(1.30% Upside)

Advantage Energy's overall score reflects mixed financial performance and valuation concerns, offset by positive sentiment from the earnings call. The company's strategic initiatives and positive outlook for natural gas prices provide some optimism, but profitability and cash flow challenges remain significant risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The increase in gas revenues and effective hedging strategies indicate a strong ability to adapt to market conditions, supporting long-term revenue growth.

Operational Efficiency

Exceptional well performance at Glacier demonstrates Advantage Energy's operational efficiency and potential for increased production capacity.

Debt Management

Introducing a flexible debt target range enhances financial stability and allows for strategic capital allocation, such as share buybacks.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Negative net profit margins highlight ongoing profitability challenges, which could impact long-term financial health if not addressed.

Cash Flow Issues

Negative free cash flow growth suggests difficulties in generating sufficient cash, which may limit investment and growth opportunities.

Production Decline

A decline in production due to price-driven curtailments and maintenance could affect revenue and market position if not reversed.

Advantage Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Advantage Energy (AAV) is a Canadian oil and natural gas exploration and production company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. The company focuses on developing its assets in the Montney formation, a premier resource play in Western Canada known for its high-quality hydrocarbons. AAV is committed to sustainable practices and aims to provide reliable energy solutions while minimizing environmental impact. Its core products include natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids, catering to both domestic and international markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Advantage Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids extracted from its production operations. The company has a diversified revenue model that includes long-term contracts with customers as well as spot market sales, which allows it to capitalize on fluctuating commodity prices. Significant revenue streams come from its strategic focus on high-return projects in the Montney formation, where it has established a strong operational presence. Additionally, Advantage Energy benefits from partnerships with other industry players and infrastructure providers, which enhance its market access and operational efficiencies. The company's financial performance is also supported by effective hedging strategies to manage commodity price risks, ensuring stable cash flows over time.

Advantage Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Advantage Energy shows mixed financial performance. Positive revenue growth is overshadowed by negative net profit margin and cash flow challenges. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but operational efficiency needs improvement.

Income Statement

Advantage Energy shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a positive revenue growth rate of 11.07%, suggesting a recovery trend. However, the net profit margin is negative at -4.84%, indicating challenges in profitability. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 48.47%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined compared to previous years, reflecting increased operational costs or reduced pricing power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable at 0.45, indicating a balanced leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -1.88%, highlighting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid asset base relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns. The free cash flow growth rate is negative at -16.40%, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively strong at 0.85, suggesting that operating activities are generating cash, albeit not enough to cover free cash flow deficits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	677.26M	550.10M	509.42M	964.37M	492.04M	245.09M
Gross Profit	331.17M	298.14M	330.99M	719.44M	357.72M	123.72M
EBITDA	367.44M	283.19M	316.34M	597.24M	660.25M	-237.45M
Net Income	54.12M	21.72M	101.60M	338.67M	411.52M	-284.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.03B	2.95B	2.30B	2.22B	1.99B	1.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	73.75M	20.15M	19.26M	48.94M	25.24M	3.28M
Total Debt	767.56M	698.03M	353.98M	192.90M	167.34M	249.38M
Total Liabilities	1.35B	1.31B	742.63M	652.28M	534.87M	493.55M
Stockholders Equity	1.68B	1.64B	1.56B	1.56B	1.46B	1.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-56.68M	-85.53M	49.73M	260.59M	85.31M	-57.91M
Operating Cash Flow	306.10M	217.53M	323.35M	502.38M	223.15M	100.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-327.12M	-697.73M	-282.76M	-269.58M	-117.78M	-158.62M
Financing Cash Flow	75.41M	481.08M	-70.26M	-209.09M	-83.41M	48.09M

Advantage Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.34
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AAV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.70, above the 50-day MA of 11.59, and above the 200-day MA of 10.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AAV.

Advantage Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWX	73 Outperform	$2.12B	11.83	23.55%	5.81%	6.44%	-6.74%
BTE	71 Outperform	$3.45B	15.72	5.16%	2.75%	-8.89%	―
FRU	69 Neutral	$2.28B	18.19	13.00%	7.16%	2.52%	-8.32%
BIR	66 Neutral	$1.83B	23.68	3.16%	2.59%	-9.76%	374.65%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
AAV	64 Neutral	$1.99B	33.84	3.69%	―	27.84%	28.87%
VET	57 Neutral	$1.59B	-8.61	2.34%	3.94%	-2.32%	70.14%

Advantage Energy Corporate Events

Advantage Energy Reports Resilient Q3 Amid Low Prices

Advantage Energy Ltd. is a Canadian company primarily engaged in the exploration and production of natural gas and liquids, with a unique focus on maintaining a steady capital program despite fluctuating commodity prices.

Advantage Energy Reports Resilient Q3 2025 Results Amidst Low AECO Prices

Advantage Energy Ltd. reported its third-quarter 2025 financial and operating results, highlighting a cash flow neutral position despite historically low AECO prices. The company managed to maintain steady capital programs and achieved exceptional drilling results at its Glacier site, reflecting its strategic focus on maximizing free cash flow and operational efficiency. Advantage’s proactive curtailment strategy during weak pricing periods led to financial benefits, while its hedging strategy aims to stabilize future production revenues. The appointment of Geoff Keyser as Vice President, Development, underscores the company’s commitment to strengthening its leadership team.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AAV) stock is a Hold with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Advantage Energy stock, see the TSE:AAV Stock Forecast page.

Advantage Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

Advantage Energy Ltd. is a Canadian energy company primarily engaged in the production of natural gas and liquids, with a focus on maximizing adjusted funds flow per share through strategic capital allocation and operational efficiency.

Advantage Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Strategic Growth

Advantage Energy Ltd. reported strong second-quarter 2025 financial results, with significant cash flow and reduced net debt. The company achieved an 18% increase in production compared to the previous year, despite challenges such as third-party facility delays. Advantage’s strategic focus on maximizing adjusted funds flow per share and operational efficiency has led to a reduction in operating costs and improved financial metrics. The company’s market diversification efforts and hedging strategies are expected to support future growth, with a focus on achieving a new conservative debt target and resuming aggressive share buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AAV) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Advantage Energy stock, see the TSE:AAV Stock Forecast page.