Advantage Energy (AAV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.70B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 487.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: 24.90%
• EPS Growth: -33.81%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 85
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 166,953,630
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 569,963
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 487,569
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.31
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.94
• 1Y Price Target: $13.86
• Price Target Upside: 35.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: C$10.50 ▲(2.64% Upside)

Advantage Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial and technical challenges. The company's financial performance is mixed, with positive revenue growth but negative profitability and cash flow metrics. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation. These factors collectively contribute to a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Efficiency realizations from the Charlie Lake acquisition helped reduce per-unit operating costs toward the lower end of the guidance range.

Production and Cash Flow

A strong production and cash flow beat contributed to an increase in the target price.

Share Buyback

The company is well-positioned to resume share buybacks later this year upon meeting its C$450m net debt target.

Negative Factors

Investor Frustration

The higher leverage post-acquisition has frustrated investors as it resulted in the buyback program being deferred.

Leverage Concerns

Higher leverage post-acquisition has frustrated investors due to the deferral of the buyback program.

Advantage Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Advantage Energy (AAV) is a Canadian oil and gas company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources. The company operates predominantly in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, focusing on sustainable energy production while leveraging advanced technologies to enhance operational efficiency. Advantage Energy is committed to responsible resource development and contributing to cleaner energy solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

Advantage Energy generates revenue through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's primary revenue streams include the production and sale of hydrocarbons, which are influenced by market prices for oil and gas. Additionally, Advantage Energy benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales. The company often engages in hedging strategies to manage price volatility, thus stabilizing its revenue. Significant partnerships with refining and marketing companies also contribute to its earnings by securing stable outlets for its products. Furthermore, Advantage Energy may derive ancillary income from service agreements or joint ventures with other exploration and production companies.

Advantage Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Advantage Energy's financial statements indicate moderate performance with room for improvement. Revenue growth is present, but profitability is under pressure, as shown by negative net margins and ROE. The company's balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but cash flow generation needs enhancement. Overall, the company appears to be managing its financial health prudently, but challenges remain in driving profitability and cash flow.

Income Statement

The income statement shows moderate performance with some fluctuations. The gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) was 48.47%, while the net profit margin was negative at -4.84%, indicating profitability challenges. Revenue growth from the previous annual report to TTM was 14.36%, showing moderate growth. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins for TTM were 10.86% and 38.93%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency but with pressures on the bottom line.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects relatively stable financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio for TTM is 0.45, which indicates a conservative leverage position. Return on equity (ROE) is negative at -1.90%, showing pressure on shareholder returns. The equity ratio is 54.20%, demonstrating a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement highlights some concerns. The free cash flow growth rate from the previous annual report to TTM is 20.75%, indicating improvement, but free cash flow remains negative. The operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is -8.97, suggesting challenges in converting income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.23, showing limited cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	677.26M	550.10M	509.42M	964.37M	492.04M	245.09M
Gross Profit	331.17M	298.14M	330.99M	719.44M	357.72M	123.72M
EBITDA	367.44M	290.99M	316.34M	597.24M	660.25M	-237.45M
Net Income	54.12M	21.72M	101.60M	338.67M	411.52M	-284.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.03B	2.95B	2.30B	2.22B	1.99B	1.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	73.75M	20.15M	19.26M	48.94M	25.24M	3.28M
Total Debt	767.56M	698.03M	353.98M	192.90M	167.34M	249.38M
Total Liabilities	1.35B	1.31B	742.63M	652.28M	534.87M	493.55M
Stockholders Equity	1.68B	1.64B	1.56B	1.56B	1.46B	1.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-56.68M	-85.53M	49.73M	260.59M	85.31M	-57.91M
Operating Cash Flow	306.10M	217.53M	323.35M	502.38M	223.15M	100.71M
Investing Cash Flow	-327.12M	-697.73M	-282.76M	-269.58M	-117.78M	-158.62M
Financing Cash Flow	75.41M	481.08M	-70.26M	-209.09M	-83.41M	48.09M

Advantage Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.23
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AAV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.23 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.79, below the 50-day MA of 11.33, and above the 200-day MA of 10.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.28 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AAV.

Advantage Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWX	73 Outperform	$1.61B	8.73	25.93%	6.21%	8.47%	-1.60%
BTE	71 Outperform	$2.10B	5.80	9.05%	3.30%	-7.76%	―
FRU	69 Neutral	$2.16B	17.22	11.89%	8.18%	-0.92%	-23.14%
AAV	55 Neutral	$1.70B	31.63	3.28%	―	24.90%	-33.81%
BIR	55 Neutral	$1.64B	21.31	3.27%	4.28%	-15.60%	85.49%
Sector *	54 Neutral	C$4.15B	0.97	16.40%	5.23%	10.45%	-57.37%
VET	52 Neutral	$1.51B	―	4.40%	5.09%	-1.60%	76.21%

Advantage Energy Corporate Events

Advantage Energy Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Strategic Growth

Advantage Energy Ltd. reported strong second-quarter 2025 financial results, with significant cash flow and reduced net debt. The company achieved an 18% increase in production compared to the previous year, despite challenges such as third-party facility delays. Advantage’s strategic focus on maximizing adjusted funds flow per share and operational efficiency has led to a reduction in operating costs and improved financial metrics. The company’s market diversification efforts and hedging strategies are expected to support future growth, with a focus on achieving a new conservative debt target and resuming aggressive share buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AAV) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Advantage Energy stock, see the TSE:AAV Stock Forecast page.

Entropy Expands Carbon Storage Operations with Strategic Acquisition

Entropy Inc. has entered a definitive agreement to acquire interests in three carbon storage hubs in Saskatchewan and Alberta for $20 million, with additional contingent payments. This acquisition, funded through convertible debentures from strategic investment agreements, will expand Entropy’s operations and customer base, enhancing its commitment to carbon capture and sequestration in Canada. The company continues to advance its Glacier gas plant operations, with Phase 2 expected to reach commercial operations by Q2 2026, despite challenges from tariffs and inflation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AAV) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Advantage Energy stock, see the TSE:AAV Stock Forecast page.