Advantage Energy (AAV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.03B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 557.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 78.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: 12.70%
• EPS Growth: -131.99%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 85
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 67
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 167,300,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 682,057
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 557,806
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $12.62
• Price Target Upside: 4.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: C$12.50 ▲(3.05%Upside)

Advantage Energy's stock score is primarily bolstered by strong technical indicators and positive corporate events. However, the financial performance reveals challenges in profitability and cash flow, and the valuation indicates concerns due to a negative P/E ratio. The stock's bullish momentum and strategic initiatives in operations and cost management are significant positives.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Efficiency realizations from the Charlie Lake acquisition helped reduce per-unit operating costs toward the lower end of the guidance range.

Resource Quality

Advantage Energy Ltd. holds one of the best natural gas assets in the AB Montney region, highlighting its strong potential in the market.

Share Buyback Potential

The company is well-positioned to resume share buybacks upon meeting its C$450m net debt target.

Negative Factors

Debt and Buyback Deferral

Investors are focused on developments from the special committee of independent directors to unlock embedded value within the company.

High Leverage Concerns

Higher leverage post-acquisition has frustrated investors due to the deferral of the buyback program.

Investor Frustration

The higher leverage post-acquisition has frustrated investors as it resulted in the buyback program being deferred.

Advantage Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Advantage Energy Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, acquires, exploits, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Province of Alberta, Canada. The company focuses on the development and production of oil and natural gas resource that includes 228 net sections covering an area of 145,920 net acres of Doig/Montney rights in Glacier, Valhalla, Progress, and Pipestone/Wembley. It provides natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids primarily through marketing companies. The company was formerly known as Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. and changed its name to Advantage Energy Ltd. in May 2021. Advantage Energy Ltd. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Advantage Energy generates revenue through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids extracted from its operations in Western Canada. The company capitalizes on market demand for these energy products by optimizing production and maintaining cost-effective operations. Key revenue streams include long-term supply contracts and spot market sales, which are influenced by global commodity prices and regional market conditions. Advantage Energy may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration and production capabilities, further contributing to its earnings.

Advantage Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Advantage Energy's financial statements indicate moderate performance with room for improvement. Revenue growth is present, but profitability is under pressure, as shown by negative net margins and ROE. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but cash flow generation needs enhancement.

Income Statement

The income statement shows moderate performance with some fluctuations. The gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) was 48.47%, while the net profit margin was negative at -4.84%, indicating profitability challenges. Revenue growth from the previous annual report to TTM was 14.36%, showing moderate growth. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins for TTM were 10.86% and 38.93%, respectively, suggesting operational efficiency but with pressures on the bottom line.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects relatively stable financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio for TTM is 0.45, which indicates a conservative leverage position. Return on equity (ROE) is negative at -1.90%, showing pressure on shareholder returns. The equity ratio is 54.20%, demonstrating a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement highlights some concerns. The free cash flow growth rate from the previous annual report to TTM is 20.75%, indicating improvement, but free cash flow remains negative. The operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is -8.97, suggesting challenges in converting income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.23, showing limited cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
629.09M	550.10M	509.42M	964.37M	492.04M	245.09M
	Gross Profit
304.91M	298.14M	330.99M	719.44M	357.72M	123.72M
	EBIT
68.30M	34.28M	299.81M	536.68M	217.45M	9.94M
	EBITDA
244.84M	286.02M	316.34M	597.24M	660.25M	-237.45M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-30.47M	21.72M	101.60M	338.67M	411.52M	-284.05M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
46.85M	20.15M	19.26M	48.94M	25.24M	3.28M
	Total Assets
2.96B	2.95B	2.30B	2.22B	1.99B	1.53B
	Total Debt
717.04M	698.03M	353.98M	192.90M	167.34M	249.38M
	Net Debt
670.19M	677.89M	334.72M	143.96M	142.11M	246.10M
	Total Liabilities
1.36B	1.31B	742.63M	652.28M	534.87M	493.55M
	Stockholders Equity
1.61B	1.64B	1.56B	1.56B	1.46B	1.04B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-67.80M	-85.53M	49.73M	260.59M	85.31M	-57.91M
	Operating Cash Flow
273.11M	217.53M	323.35M	502.38M	223.15M	100.71M
	Investing Cash Flow
-726.22M	-697.73M	-282.76M	-269.58M	-117.78M	-158.62M
	Financing Cash Flow
480.86M	481.08M	-70.26M	-209.09M	-83.41M	48.09M

Advantage Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AAV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.33, above the 50-day MA of 10.46, and above the 200-day MA of 9.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.81 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AAV.

Advantage Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AAV	67 Neutral	$2.03B	78.00	-1.90%	―	12.70%	-131.99%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.57B	3.50	-4.45%	10.15%	0.79%	-49.51%
BTE		$1.60B	7.18	8.02%	3.09%	―	―
VET		$1.27B	―	-1.19%	4.39%	―	―
BIREF		$1.48B	15.04	6.10%	1.59%	―	―
CDDRF		$1.23B	8.50	29.87%	5.92%	―	―
FRHLF		$1.57B	13.47	15.22%	8.15%	―	―

Advantage Energy Corporate Events

Advantage Energy Announces Director Election Results at Annual Meeting

Advantage Energy Ltd. held its annual general meeting on May 6, 2025, where shareholders approved the election of ten directors to serve until the next annual meeting. The meeting saw a high turnout with 83.52% of outstanding common shares represented. Notably, Stephen E. Balog and Andy J. Mah retired from the Board, and Advantage expressed gratitude for their contributions.

Advantage Energy Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results, Eyes Future Growth

Advantage Energy Ltd. reported strong financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, with cash from operating activities at $122.9 million and adjusted funds flow exceeding expectations due to asset acquisitions and cost reductions. The company achieved record production levels, particularly in liquids, and reduced operating costs, positioning itself well for future growth. Advantage has hedged a significant portion of its production for 2025 and beyond, and aims to maximize adjusted funds flow per share while focusing on debt reduction and share buybacks. The company anticipates generating over $500 million in free cash flow over the next three years, leveraging its exceptional assets and strategic market positioning.