Baytex Energy (BTE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.61B
• Dividend Yield: 2.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.93M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.74
• Revenue Growth: -8.89%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 370
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 768,300,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,543,687
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,932,982
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.71
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.01
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$5.04
• Price Target Upside: 7.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.33B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$5.00 ▲(6.38% Upside)

Baytex Energy's strong technical momentum and solid financial performance are the primary drivers of the score. While the company faces challenges with debt levels and commodity price impacts, its operational efficiency and liquidity provide a stable outlook.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

A 12% improvement in drilling and completion costs in the Eagle Ford operations enhances operational efficiency, reducing costs and improving margins over the long term.

Production Growth

Achieving a new quarterly production record in Pembina Duvernay demonstrates Baytex's ability to increase output, supporting future revenue growth and market position.

Financial Liquidity

With over $1.3 billion in undrawn credit capacity and no debt maturing until 2030, Baytex maintains strong financial liquidity, ensuring flexibility for future investments and operations.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Decline

The reduction in free cash flow forecast due to lower commodity prices indicates potential cash flow challenges, impacting the company's ability to fund operations and growth.

Revenue Volatility

Revenue volatility can affect financial stability and predictability, making it challenging to plan long-term investments and growth strategies.

Debt Levels

Rising debt levels can strain financial resources and limit flexibility, potentially impacting Baytex's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns.

Baytex Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Baytex Energy Corp., an oil and gas company, acquires, develops, and produces oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Texas, the United States. The company offers light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Its principal oil and natural gas properties comprise the Eagle Ford property in Texas, Viking and Lloydminster properties in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Peace River and Duvernay properties in Alberta. The company's properties also include conventional oil and natural gas assets in Western Canada. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved developed producing reserves of 129 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe); proved reserves of 278 mmboe; and proved plus probable reserves of 451 mmboe. Baytex Energy Corp. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Baytex Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company sells its products to various markets, including refiners and distributors, which provides a diversified revenue stream. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Additionally, Baytex benefits from partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capacity and market reach. Fluctuations in global oil and gas prices significantly impact the company's earnings, making its revenue sensitive to market conditions. The company also employs hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.

Baytex Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Baytex Energy shows strong profitability and operational efficiency with a rebound in revenue and solid profit margins. However, increased debt levels and negative free cash flow growth present potential risks.

Income Statement

Baytex Energy's income statement shows a strong recovery with a positive revenue growth rate of 2.05% TTM, indicating a rebound from previous declines. The gross profit margin of 37.90% and net profit margin of 9.80% TTM reflect solid profitability, although the net profit margin has decreased from previous highs. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 18.42% and 53.88% TTM, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. However, the decline in revenue from 2024 to 2025 suggests potential volatility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Baytex Energy is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52 TTM, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity is modest at 8.95% TTM, showing decent profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio stands at 55.12% TTM, reflecting a strong equity base. However, the increase in total debt over the years poses a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Baytex Energy's cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by -19.23% TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 2.99 TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.29 TTM suggests that a significant portion of earnings is converted into free cash flow. Despite strong cash flow ratios, the negative growth in free cash flow warrants attention.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.83B	4.21B	2.71B	2.89B	1.87B	975.48M
Gross Profit	1.03B	1.03B	750.68M	1.08B	603.51M	-82.80M
EBITDA	1.81B	2.00B	691.14M	1.58B	2.27B	-1.99B
Net Income	214.63M	236.60M	-233.36M	855.61M	1.61B	-2.44B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.60B	7.76B	7.46B	5.10B	4.83B	3.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.42M	16.61M	55.81M	5.46M	0.00	0.00
Total Debt	2.01B	2.28B	2.44B	937.17M	1.39B	1.79B
Total Liabilities	3.41B	3.59B	3.64B	2.07B	2.62B	2.83B
Stockholders Equity	4.19B	4.17B	3.83B	3.03B	2.21B	578.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	419.75M	593.85M	239.61M	648.83M	396.62M	70.48M
Operating Cash Flow	1.73B	1.91B	1.30B	1.17B	712.38M	353.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.24B	-1.28B	-1.51B	-488.99M	-310.76M	-314.47M
Financing Cash Flow	-498.96M	-668.17M	266.25M	-678.42M	-401.62M	-44.20M

Baytex Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:BTE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.41, above the 50-day MA of 4.27, and above the 200-day MA of 3.13, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:BTE.

Baytex Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BTE	75 Outperform	C$3.61B	16.83	5.16%	2.07%	-8.89%	―
NVA	74 Outperform	C$3.59B	11.36	13.57%	―	-6.14%	14.09%
ATH	68 Neutral	C$3.36B	7.78	27.19%	―	3.04%	115.77%
TVE	67 Neutral	C$3.97B	-43.08	-4.70%	1.91%	-1.36%	-149.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
POU	65 Neutral	C$3.37B	2.47	41.81%	2.84%	-32.36%	282.99%
IPCO	60 Neutral	C$2.94B	61.78	3.59%	―	-9.12%	-70.87%