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Baytex Energy
(NYSE:BTE)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$7.00
▲(14.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong cash flow and currently low leverage are positives, but they are weighed down by a sharp TTM revenue drop and a very large TTM net loss. Technicals add support with the stock trading above all key moving averages. The earnings call was a notable positive (raised guidance, stronger netbacks, sizable liquidity and buybacks), while valuation is tempered by a negative P/E and only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and materially higher free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, return capital, and de-risk projects. Over the next 2–6 months robust FCF supports buybacks, dividends, and opportunistic investment despite commodity cyclicality.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility and revenue decline
Steep revenue drop and large net losses underscore high earnings cyclicality; even with strong cash-style margins, profitability inconsistency risks funding for growth and returns if prices or volumes weaken, and complicates multi-quarter planning and investor predictability.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow and materially higher free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, return capital, and de-risk projects. Over the next 2–6 months robust FCF supports buybacks, dividends, and opportunistic investment despite commodity cyclicality.
Read all positive factors
Baytex Energy (BTE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.18B
Dividend Yield1.49%
Average Volume (3M)4.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.74
Revenue Growth-8.89%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees370
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.92
Shares Outstanding699,200,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,180,865
30 Day Avg. Volume4,192,155
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)2.31
P/FCF Ratio13.85
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$7.25Price Target Upside19.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.80B
Baytex Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Baytex Energy Corp. is an energy company primarily focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil and natural gas. Its operations are centered in North America, specifically spanning the Western Canadian Sediment...
How the Company Makes Money
Baytex primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—principally crude oil, along with natural gas and NGLs—into wholesale energy markets. Revenue is largely a function of (1) production volumes (barrels of oil equivalent produced an...
Baytex Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial execution: production beat guidance, adjusted funds flow and free cash flow materially improved, operating netbacks rose sharply, and the balance sheet ended the quarter with $566M net cash allowing aggressive buybacks and a dividend. Early Duvernay results and active waterflood pilots provide upside, but one drilling incident, the early-stage nature of some initiatives (Duvernay, waterfloods, Gemini), and the choice to remain unhedged introduce near-term uncertainty. On balance the positives (outperformance, cash generation, buybacks, strong netback improvement and liquidity) outweigh the operational and program risks mentioned.Positive Updates
Production Above Guidance and Year-over-Year Growth
Production averaged 71.2 thousand BOE/d in Q2, above the high end of guidance for the second straight quarter and representing 11% growth versus Q2 2025. Full-year production guidance was raised to 71.0 thousand BOE/d (up 1.0 thousand BOE/d from the prior midpoint) with a targeted exit rate of 72.0 thousand BOE/d.
Negative Updates
Duvernay Operational Issue on One Well and Early Stage Uncertainty
One Duvernay well experienced a stuck bottom-hole assembly and was completed at half lateral length (reducing the planned exposure). Management emphasized results are early and further time/analysis is required to understand long-term trends and inventory upside, creating near-term uncertainty in scaling assumptions.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Above Guidance and Year-over-Year Growth
Production averaged 71.2 thousand BOE/d in Q2, above the high end of guidance for the second straight quarter and representing 11% growth versus Q2 2025. Full-year production guidance was raised to 71.0 thousand BOE/d (up 1.0 thousand BOE/d from the prior midpoint) with a targeted exit rate of 72.0 thousand BOE/d.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Baytex raised full‑year production guidance to 71,000 BOE/d (up 1,000 BOE/d from the prior midpoint) with a targeted 72,000 BOE/d exit rate, kept 2026 capital program flat at $625 million, and reiterated a 6–8% annual production growth target; the company plans to repurchase $650 million of shares from the U.S. disposition (NCIB renewed to buy up to 70.9 million shares through July 1, 2027), having repurchased 69 million shares (~9% of outstanding) for $378 million since December 2025 (22 million shares for $136 million in Q2 at an average $6.27/share) while declaring a quarterly dividend of $0.0225/share payable Oct. 1. Q2 results included production of 71.2k BOE/d (11% vs Q2 2025), 24 wells brought onstream, $122 million of E&D spend, 17 wells drilled/13 onstream YTD, adjusted funds flow of $254 million ($0.35/share), operating netback $55.33/BOE (Q1: $35.36/BOE), net income $175 million ($0.24/share), free cash flow $128 million ($0.18/share), and exit net cash of $566 million; the company has no WTI hedges (WTI averaged $93/bbl this quarter) and notes a ~$125 million annualized AFF sensitivity per $5 change in WTI. Operationally, Duvernay progress includes the first Gilby pad (3 of 4 wells averaged IP30 46 BOE/d with 88% liquids; a fourth well reported an IP30 of 866 BOE/d), a second pad expected onstream in September, a 2026 Duvernay DCE cost of ~$10/ft (vs $10.50/ft in 2025 and $11.50/ft in 2024) with a $9/ft target, four heavy‑oil rigs running (a fifth in Morinville in August), expansion of Peavine waterflood pilots with two additional patterns and a REX test expected on injection by Q4, Utikuma seismic of 21 sq. miles (~20% of 109 sections) with up to two Pekisko tests planned for early 2027 (~$2.5M/well), and a corporate target of 15% annual total shareholder return at a $70 mid‑cycle price.Baytex Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 546.04M | 1.48B | 4.21B | 2.71B | 2.89B | 1.87B |
| Gross Profit | 58.32M | 318.23M | 1.03B | 750.68M | 1.08B | 603.51M |
| EBITDA | 112.17M | 1.27B | 2.00B | 691.14M | 1.58B | 2.27B |
| Net Income | -717.38M | -603.78M | 236.60M | -233.36M | 855.61M | 1.61B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.17B | 3.35B | 7.76B | 7.46B | 5.10B | 4.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 720.34M | 953.11M | 16.61M | 55.81M | 5.46M | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 149.49M | 117.99M | 2.28B | 2.44B | 937.17M | 1.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 956.37M | 3.59B | 3.64B | 2.07B | 2.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.15B | 2.39B | 4.17B | 3.83B | 3.03B | 2.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 304.29M | 246.52M | 593.85M | 239.61M | 648.83M | 396.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.05B | 1.49B | 1.91B | 1.30B | 1.17B | 712.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.23B | 1.78B | -1.28B | -1.51B | -488.99M | -310.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.57B | -2.33B | -668.17M | 266.25M | -678.42M | -401.62M |
Baytex Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
6.09
Price Trends
5.96
Positive
6.18
Negative
5.38
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
51.83
Neutral
48.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:BTE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.98, above the 50-day MA of 5.96, and above the 200-day MA of 5.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:BTE.
Baytex Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$5.10B | 22.37 | 12.57% | ― | -6.76% | -46.80% | |
67 Neutral | C$4.18B | -6.60 | -26.39% | 1.48% | -8.89% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$4.62B | 39.34 | 4.30% | 1.98% | -28.28% | -92.06% | |
62 Neutral | C$6.17B | 184.38 | 1.34% | 1.29% | 7.64% | -86.01% | |
52 Neutral | C$3.61B | 124.00 | 2.33% | ― | 4.38% | -57.68% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
6.04
3.31
120.84%
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
10.56
4.84
84.62%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
31.90
12.67
65.88%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
13.22
7.98
152.19%
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
32.43
7.97
32.58%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.