Baytex Energy (BTE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.04B
• Dividend Yield: 3.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.73
• Revenue Growth: 10.55%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 370
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 54
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 768,600,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,292,932
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,882,804
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$4.03
• Price Target Upside: 45.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$3.00 ▲(8.30%Upside)

Baytex Energy's overall score is primarily driven by its solid financial performance and attractive valuation, indicating potential growth in the oil & gas sector. The technical analysis suggests caution due to overbought conditions, and the earnings call highlighted challenges like commodity price pressure. Despite these risks, the company's strong cash flow and strategic debt management support a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Dividends

The company reported a Q1 beat and increased its dividend by 3%.

Earnings

Q4 results were ahead of expectations, which is likely to please investors.

Operational Efficiency

The company plans to bring on 50 net wells in the Eagle Ford during the year and expects to see a 7% improvement in opex costs compared to previous years.

Negative Factors

Debt Management

Investors were likely hoping for a more aggressive spending cut, to protect against an elevated balance sheet if low commodity prices persist.

Market Volatility

High leverage in a highly volatile environment has led to a reduction in the target price for Baytex.

Stock Recommendation

There is a downgrade to SELL based on Q1 results as pre-released.

Baytex Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Baytex Energy Corp. is a North American-focused oil and gas company engaged in the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Baytex operates primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the Eagle Ford in the United States, with a focus on heavy oil, light oil, and natural gas liquids. The company is dedicated to responsible resource development and sustainability, leveraging technology and expertise to optimize its operations and enhance shareholder value.

How the Company Makes Money

Baytex Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of produced oil and natural gas liquids, as well as natural gas itself. The pricing of these commodities is influenced by global market conditions, which can significantly impact the company's earnings. Baytex also focuses on maintaining a balanced portfolio of assets, optimizing production efficiency, and implementing cost-control measures to maximize profitability. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in prolific oil-producing regions, such as the Eagle Ford shale, further support its revenue generation by providing access to advanced technology and expertise, enhancing operational efficiencies, and potentially increasing production volumes.

Baytex Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Baytex Energy shows a solid financial position with a strong cash flow foundation and improving income statement metrics. The balance sheet is relatively stable, though moderate debt levels should be monitored. Overall, the company is well-positioned for potential growth in the oil & gas sector, but it should remain vigilant about operational efficiency and leverage.

Income Statement

The company demonstrates strong profitability with a high gross profit margin of 25.1% and a net profit margin of 8.0% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue growth has been volatile but shows improvement from previous losses, indicating a positive trajectory. However, fluctuations in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest some instability in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a healthy equity ratio of 53.7%, highlighting strong capital structure stability. However, a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52 indicates moderate leverage, which could be a risk if debt levels rise. Return on equity is reasonable but not exceptional, reflecting average profitability on shareholder funds.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is robust, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 15.2% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 6.11. The company efficiently converts its earnings into cash, which is crucial for sustaining operations and funding future growth.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.98B	4.21B	2.71B	2.89B	1.87B	975.48M
	Gross Profit
1.00B	1.03B	750.68M	1.08B	603.51M	-82.80M
	EBIT
831.89M	770.30M	643.19M	943.57M	521.68M	-150.84M
	EBITDA
2.05B	2.00B	723.50M	1.58B	2.27B	-1.99B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
320.23M	236.60M	-233.36M	855.61M	1.61B	-2.44B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
5.57M	16.61M	55.81M	5.46M	-7.76M	-11.08M
	Total Assets
5.91B	7.76B	7.46B	5.10B	4.83B	3.41B
	Total Debt
1.85B	2.28B	2.44B	937.17M	1.39B	1.79B
	Net Debt
1.84B	2.27B	2.38B	931.70M	1.40B	1.80B
	Total Liabilities
2.97B	3.59B	3.64B	2.07B	2.62B	2.83B
	Stockholders Equity
2.95B	4.17B	3.83B	3.03B	2.21B	578.21M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
684.69M	593.85M	239.61M	648.83M	396.62M	70.48M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.96B	1.91B	1.30B	1.17B	712.38M	353.10M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.23B	-1.28B	-1.51B	-488.99M	-310.76M	-314.47M
	Financing Cash Flow
-744.14M	-668.17M	266.25M	-678.42M	-401.62M	-44.20M

Baytex Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 2.77
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:BTE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.38, above the 50-day MA of 2.37, and below the 200-day MA of 3.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:BTE.

Baytex Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HWX	81 Outperform	$1.61B	8.01	29.87%	6.51%	20.48%	21.66%
BTE	75 Outperform	C$2.04B	6.64	8.02%	3.07%	10.55%	―
FRU	69 Neutral	$2.07B	12.77	15.22%	8.25%	-1.62%	12.60%
BIR	69 Neutral	$1.89B	13.70	6.10%	1.59%	-18.20%	260.40%
AAV	67 Neutral	$1.96B	78.00	-1.90%	―	12.70%	-131.99%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.43B	3.43	-4.49%	10.08%	0.81%	-49.42%
VET	56 Neutral	$1.62B	―	-1.19%	4.73%	1.04%	94.48%