Baytex Energy Corp. (TSE:BTE)
NYSE:BTE
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Baytex Energy
(NYSE:BTE)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$7.00
▲(25.45% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven by solid cash generation and a currently conservative balance sheet, supported by positive technical momentum and an earnings call with raised growth guidance and strong buybacks. Offsetting factors are weakened recent profitability (net losses and sharp revenue contraction) and limited valuation support due to a negative P/E and only modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Robust cash generation
Consistent operating cash flow and positive free cash flow across reported periods indicate durable internal funding for capital programs, buybacks and dividends. This cash generation cushions the business against cyclical price swings and reduces reliance on external financing over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility and revenue deterioration
A ~40% revenue decline and back-to-back net losses signal elevated earnings volatility and weaker accounting profitability. Persistent negative net income can erode retained earnings, limit reinvestment capacity, and pressure returns to shareholders if not reversed by sustained commodity or operational improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust cash generation
Consistent operating cash flow and positive free cash flow across reported periods indicate durable internal funding for capital programs, buybacks and dividends. This cash generation cushions the business against cyclical price swings and reduces reliance on external financing over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Baytex Energy (BTE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.25B
Dividend Yield2.07%
Average Volume (3M)6.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth-8.89%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees370
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.96
Shares Outstanding740,100,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,991,316
30 Day Avg. Volume6,991,142
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)2.31
P/FCF Ratio13.85
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$7.07Price Target Upside26.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.70B
Baytex Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Baytex Energy Corp., an oil and gas company, acquires, develops, and produces oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Texas, the United States. The company offers light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas li...
How the Company Makes Money
Baytex makes money primarily by producing and selling crude oil, condensate/NGLs, and natural gas from its operated and non-operated assets. Revenue is recognized from the sale of produced hydrocarbons to purchasers (e.g., refiners, marketers, and...
Baytex Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational execution (production above guidance), meaningful upgrades to growth targets (2026 raised to ~7% at midpoint and three-year target 6–8%), improved unit economics (operating netback up ~20.7%), a solid net cash position of CAD 591 million, and an aggressive buyback program (~CAD 174 million repurchased this quarter and CAD 650 million planned for 2026). Key growth catalysts include Duvernay scale-up, heavy oil inventory and waterflood pilots, and longer-term Gemini optionality. Near-term negatives include CAD 29 million hedging losses, limited Q1 free cash flow, hedge roll-off at end of Q2 that increases exposure to oil prices, and some service-cost/capital intensity risk as activity increases. On balance the call emphasized positive operational momentum, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns while acknowledging manageable execution and price-exposure risks.Positive Updates
Production Outperformance and Raised Guidance
Q1 production averaged 69,500 BOE/d, above the high end of guidance. Company raised 2026 production guidance to 69,000–71,000 BOE/d (represents ~7% annual growth at midpoint, up from prior 3–5%). Three-year outlook updated to target 6–8% annual growth through 2028 (up from prior midpoint ~4%).
Negative Updates
Hedging Losses and Near-Term Hedge Roll-off
Realized hedging losses of $29 million in Q1. Approximately 50% of WTI exposure remains hedged only until the end of Q2 (legacy hedges); management does not plan to add new WTI hedges, increasing exposure to price volatility going forward.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Outperformance and Raised Guidance
Q1 production averaged 69,500 BOE/d, above the high end of guidance. Company raised 2026 production guidance to 69,000–71,000 BOE/d (represents ~7% annual growth at midpoint, up from prior 3–5%). Three-year outlook updated to target 6–8% annual growth through 2028 (up from prior midpoint ~4%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 production guidance to 69,000–71,000 BOE/d (about 7% annual growth at the midpoint, up from 3–5%), kept 2026 capital spending at the high end of guidance of $625 million (including incremental Duvernay and heavy oil projects), and updated the three‑year outlook to target 6–8% annual production growth through 2028 (up from a prior midpoint of 4%). The Duvernay is expected to deliver ~35% production growth in 2026 with a year‑end exit of 14,000–15,000 BOE/d (13 Duvernay wells onstream in 2026 and a planned 18–20 well, one‑rig program in 2027), unit completion costs budgeted at ~$1,000/ft with a longer‑term target of ~$900/ft and type‑curve improvements from ~80 to ~90 BOE/ft; heavy oil remains 75% of production (oil+NGLs 88% of mix) with 12 years of drilling inventory at current pace, Peavine waterflood pilots underway (primary recovery ~7% → waterflood ~15% → polymer >20% potential) and Gemini Thermal optionality (44 million booked barrels, 5,000 bbl/d Phase‑1 design, FID targeted 2027). Financial guidance/targets include maintaining a net cash position ($591 million at quarter end), deploying $650 million (75%) of Eagle Ford sale proceeds to 2026 buybacks (35 million shares repurchased, 4.6%, for $174 million YTD), Q1 adjusted funds flow of $152 million ($0.20/sh), an operating netback of $35.36/BOE (vs $29.30 in Q4‑2025), $29 million of hedging losses in Q1 with WTI hedges rolling off end‑Q2 (every $5 WTI = ≈$125 million AFF sensitivity), ~40–50% of WCS hedged at ~US$13, a quarterly dividend of $0.0225 (annual $0.09), and an estimated ~ $250 million of free cash flow for 2026 at an $80 WTI assumption.Baytex Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 883.05M | 1.48B | 4.21B | 2.71B | 2.89B | 1.87B |
| Gross Profit | 159.16M | 318.23M | 1.03B | 750.68M | 1.08B | 603.51M |
| EBITDA | 448.50M | 730.33M | 2.00B | 691.14M | 1.58B | 2.27B |
| Net Income | -740.70M | -603.78M | 236.60M | -233.36M | 855.61M | 1.61B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.25B | 3.35B | 7.76B | 7.46B | 5.10B | 4.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 757.87M | 953.11M | 16.61M | 55.81M | 5.46M | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 145.82M | 117.99M | 2.28B | 2.44B | 937.17M | 1.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.12B | 956.37M | 3.59B | 3.64B | 2.07B | 2.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.13B | 2.39B | 4.17B | 3.83B | 3.03B | 2.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 192.60M | 246.52M | 593.85M | 239.61M | 648.83M | 396.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.18B | 1.49B | 1.91B | 1.30B | 1.17B | 712.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.99B | 1.78B | -1.28B | -1.51B | -488.99M | -310.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.41B | -2.33B | -668.17M | 266.25M | -678.42M | -401.62M |
Baytex Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
5.58
Price Trends
6.09
Positive
5.41
Positive
4.45
Positive
Market Momentum
0.25
Positive
65.82
Neutral
64.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:BTE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.62, below the 50-day MA of 6.09, and above the 200-day MA of 4.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 65.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:BTE.
Baytex Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$5.95B | 29.25 | 12.23% | ― | -4.92% | -52.64% | |
66 Neutral | C$5.25B | -17.26 | -23.11% | 2.07% | -8.89% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$4.65B | 20.16 | 1.96% | 2.84% | -49.03% | -96.56% | |
60 Neutral | C$6.44B | 246.51 | -5.03% | 1.91% | -5.38% | -139.64% | |
54 Neutral | C$4.35B | 60.26 | 2.73% | ― | -12.72% | -67.54% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
7.32
5.08
226.20%
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
12.68
7.44
141.98%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
33.23
14.46
77.02%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
13.42
9.15
214.43%
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
39.22
20.27
106.97%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.