Baytex Energy (TSE:BTE)
TSX:BTE
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Baytex Energy
(TSX:BTE)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$6.00
▲(3.81% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven primarily by solid cash-flow resilience and a much-improved balance sheet, supported by constructive earnings-call commentary (net cash, buybacks, steady 2026 guidance). This is tempered by volatile earnings with a large 2025 loss (negative P/E) and commodity/hedge roll-off risk, despite favorable current technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive operating cash flow and recurring free cash flow give Baytex durable internal funding for sustaining capex, dividend and buybacks without reliance on external financing. That cash-conversion ability cushions commodity swings and supports strategic optionality over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility
A large GAAP loss despite strong cash flow highlights volatility between accounting earnings and cash performance. Material one-time charges and impairments can mask recurring economics, complicate trend analysis, and create uncertainty about sustainable shareholder returns and future capital deployment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive operating cash flow and recurring free cash flow give Baytex durable internal funding for sustaining capex, dividend and buybacks without reliance on external financing. That cash-conversion ability cushions commodity swings and supports strategic optionality over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Baytex Energy (BTE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.28B
Dividend Yield2.07%
Average Volume (3M)7.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth-8.89%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees370
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.12
Shares Outstanding740,100,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,956,521
30 Day Avg. Volume7,316,214
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)2.31
P/FCF Ratio13.85
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$5.36Price Target Upside-7.20% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.31B
Baytex Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Baytex Energy Corp., an oil and gas company, acquires, develops, and produces oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Texas, the United States. The company offers light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas li...
How the Company Makes Money
Baytex Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company sells its products to various markets, including refiners and distributors, which provides a diversified revenue stre...
Baytex Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive strategic and financial story: Baytex completed a transformational Eagle Ford divestiture, emerged with a net cash balance and strong liquidity, produced robust adjusted funds flow and free cash flow, and demonstrated meaningful operational momentum (notably a 46% Q4 Duvernay increase and 6% organic Canadian growth in 2025). The company has clear optionality to accelerate growth, active buybacks and a commitment to shareholder returns. Key negatives are the GAAP net loss of $604 million driven by disposition-related charges and a $148 million Viking impairment, Q4 nonrecurring costs, and ongoing commodity-price sensitivity (hedges rolling off mid-year). On balance, the operational progress, cash generation, and balance sheet improvement outweigh the one-time accounting charges and commodity uncertainty.Positive Updates
Strategic Repositioning & Leadership Transition
Closed the Eagle Ford sale in December and repositioned Baytex into a focused, high-return Canadian oil producer; formal CEO succession announced with Chad Lundberg to succeed Eric Greager to ensure continuity of strategy.
Negative Updates
2025 Net Loss Driven by One-Time Items
Reported a net loss of $604 million for 2025 driven by a nonrecurring loss on the Eagle Ford disposition, a deferred tax expense from the restructuring, and a $148 million impairment on Viking assets — all material contributors to negative GAAP earnings despite strong cash generation.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Repositioning & Leadership Transition
Closed the Eagle Ford sale in December and repositioned Baytex into a focused, high-return Canadian oil producer; formal CEO succession announced with Chad Lundberg to succeed Eric Greager to ensure continuity of strategy.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Baytex's 2026 guidance remains 67,000–69,000 BOE/d (unchanged from December), with the high end representing ~5% organic growth y/y, backed by a $550–$625M capital program (company budget details: sustaining $435M + $50M growth + $50M infrastructure + $50M exploration ≈ $585M) centered at US$60/bbl WTI (with upside optionality >5% at US$65 and the ability to pull back below US$60); key operational targets include bringing ~12 Duvernay wells onstream in 2026 (a 50% increase vs. 2025) after growing Duvernay to 10,600 BOE/d in Q4 (up 46% vs. Q4 2024) from 91,500 net acres and ~210 identified locations, and ~91 heavy oil wells onstream in 2026 across 750,000 net acres and ~1,100 locations (≈12 years of inventory at current pace) plus two Peavine waterflood pilots; 2025 Canadian metrics to note: 65,500 BOE/d production (6% organic growth ex dispositions), $548M Canada capex, $1.5B adjusted funds flow and $270M free cash flow for the year; balance sheet guidance/priorities: exit 2025 with net cash ($857M cash less bonds, $750M undrawn facility), ongoing NCIB buybacks (30M shares repurchased, ~4%, >$141M) while maintaining the $0.09/share annual dividend; hedging profile: collars with a ~$60 floor (≈60% WTI hedged in Q1, ~45–50% in Q2) and ~5% WCS hedged at ~$13.Baytex Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.48B | 4.21B | 2.71B | 2.89B | 1.87B |
| Gross Profit | 318.23M | 1.03B | 750.68M | 1.08B | 603.51M |
| EBITDA | 730.33M | 2.00B | 691.14M | 1.58B | 2.27B |
| Net Income | -603.78M | 236.60M | -233.36M | 855.61M | 1.61B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.35B | 7.76B | 7.46B | 5.10B | 4.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 953.11M | 16.61M | 55.81M | 5.46M | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 117.99M | 2.28B | 2.44B | 937.17M | 1.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 956.37M | 3.59B | 3.64B | 2.07B | 2.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.39B | 4.17B | 3.83B | 3.03B | 2.21B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 246.52M | 593.85M | 239.61M | 648.83M | 396.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.49B | 1.91B | 1.30B | 1.17B | 712.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.78B | -1.28B | -1.51B | -488.99M | -310.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.33B | -668.17M | 266.25M | -678.42M | -401.62M |
Baytex Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
5.78
Price Trends
5.05
Positive
4.64
Positive
3.79
Positive
Market Momentum
0.20
Negative
71.19
Negative
58.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:BTE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.48, above the 50-day MA of 5.05, and above the 200-day MA of 3.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.19 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:BTE.
Baytex Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$4.69B | 14.32 | 27.19% | ― | 3.04% | 115.77% | |
73 Outperform | C$4.29B | 2.70 | 48.07% | 2.84% | -32.36% | 282.99% | |
68 Neutral | C$5.36B | -110.02 | -1.84% | 1.91% | -1.36% | -149.45% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | C$4.28B | -5.66 | -16.22% | 2.07% | -8.89% | ― | |
60 Neutral | C$4.01B | 70.08 | 3.12% | ― | -9.12% | -70.87% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
5.78
2.63
83.43%
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
9.77
4.19
75.09%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
29.67
11.55
63.78%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
11.04
6.76
158.00%
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
35.73
13.64
61.75%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.