ARC Resources (TSE:ARX)
TSX:ARX
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ARC Resources
(TSX:ARX)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$33.00
â–²(12.17% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability and operating cash flow but cyclical, with weaker FCF conversion and higher leverage). Technicals are supportive via a strong uptrend, though overbought signals temper the rating. Valuation is reasonable with a moderate dividend yield, and the earnings call reinforced shareholder returns and stable guidance despite Attachie execution risk.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained, material free cash flow (~CAD 1.3B in 2025) provides durable internal funding for reinvestment, dividends and buybacks. Reliable FCF improves resilience through commodity cycles, gives management optionality to prioritize high-return projects and supports continued shareholder returns.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Higher debt in 2025 weakens financial flexibility, increasing sensitivity to lower commodity prices and limiting room for opportunistic M&A or capex shocks. Elevated leverage can constrain capital allocation choices and force prioritization away from growth if prices deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained, material free cash flow (~CAD 1.3B in 2025) provides durable internal funding for reinvestment, dividends and buybacks. Reliable FCF improves resilience through commodity cycles, gives management optionality to prioritize high-return projects and supports continued shareholder returns.
Read all positive factors
ARC Resources (ARX) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$16.54B
Dividend Yield2.95%
Average Volume (3M)4.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth15.61%
EPS Growth12.15%
CountryCA
Employees438
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.45
Shares Outstanding571,164,250
10 Day Avg. Volume5,492,624
30 Day Avg. Volume4,327,242
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.74
Price to Book (P/B)1.81
Price to Sales (P/S)2.46
P/FCF Ratio11.92
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$27.83Price Target Upside-5.41% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$6.21B
ARC Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ARC Resources Ltd. explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Canada. The company holds interests in the Montney properties located in northeast British Columbia and northern Alberta; and Pembina Cardium pr...
How the Company Makes Money
ARC Resources makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons—natural gas, condensate, and crude oil—at prevailing market prices. Revenue is generated through (1) sales of natural gas (typically priced using Canadian and/or North Ameri...
ARC Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong corporate and financial performance—record production, robust free cash flow, meaningful shareholder returns, reserve growth and constructive gas pricing—while acknowledging a material operational challenge at the Attachie asset that prompted a prudent slowdown and possible reallocation of ~CAD 250 million of capital. Management emphasized discipline, balance sheet strength and confidence in other high-quality assets (notably Kakwa) to offset near-term uncertainty. Overall, positives in cash generation, shareholder returns, reserves and market access outweigh the asset-level execution risk at Attachie, which the company is addressing deliberately.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Annual Production
Q4 2025 production was a record 408,000 BOE/day (Terry), representing ~7% year-over-year growth and ~10% growth on a per-share basis; full-year 2025 average production was a record 374,000 BOE/day and the company expects annual average production to surpass 400,000 BOE/day in the coming year.
Negative Updates
Attachie Well Performance Variability and Development Delay
Attachie performance showed variability: early results from the most recent Upper Montney pads (3-12 area) have not met expectations. Management has adjusted the development schedule, slowed pad progression, removed asset-level guidance for Attachie and is allowing more time for technical analysis before committing further capital.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly and Annual Production
Q4 2025 production was a record 408,000 BOE/day (Terry), representing ~7% year-over-year growth and ~10% growth on a per-share basis; full-year 2025 average production was a record 374,000 BOE/day and the company expects annual average production to surpass 400,000 BOE/day in the coming year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ARC left 2026 corporate guidance unchanged, targeting production of 405,000–420,000 BOE/d while investing $1.8–$1.9 billion of capital, and at current strip prices expects to generate roughly $1.2 billion of free funds flow; management reiterated it will return essentially all free cash flow to shareholders (growing the base dividend and continuing buybacks) and remain nimble on asset-level allocations, noting a roughly $250 million Attachie placeholder that may be reallocated across the portfolio.ARC Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.08B | 5.10B | 5.66B | 8.64B | 5.11B |
| Gross Profit | 1.92B | 2.83B | 3.33B | 5.55B | 3.25B |
| EBITDA | 3.33B | 2.74B | 3.39B | 4.25B | 1.98B |
| Net Income | 1.28B | 1.12B | 1.60B | 2.30B | 786.60M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.76B | 13.10B | 12.38B | 11.62B | 11.38B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.00M | 0.00 | 1.10M | 57.10M | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 4.83B | 2.39B | 2.21B | 1.79B | 2.57B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.49B | 5.15B | 4.96B | 4.97B | 5.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.26B | 7.95B | 7.43B | 6.65B | 5.93B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.26B | 546.90M | 567.80M | 2.41B | 953.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.09B | 2.35B | 2.39B | 3.83B | 2.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.54B | -1.91B | -1.69B | -1.41B | -808.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 449.50M | -443.50M | -759.60M | -2.36B | -1.20B |
ARC Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
29.42
Price Trends
25.65
Positive
25.42
Positive
26.07
Positive
Market Momentum
1.10
Negative
77.41
Negative
84.91
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ARX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.20, above the 50-day MA of 25.65, and above the 200-day MA of 26.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.41 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.91 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ARX.
ARC Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$5.54B | 10.89 | 15.30% | 5.77% | 11.52% | 24.76% | |
76 Outperform | C$8.30B | -15.31 | 15.77% | 2.99% | -11.41% | 40.81% | |
74 Outperform | C$18.15B | 11.60 | 10.14% | 6.33% | 36.36% | -19.92% | |
71 Outperform | C$16.54B | 11.74 | 15.52% | 2.95% | 15.61% | 12.15% | |
69 Neutral | C$25.99B | 89.45 | 8.69% | 4.79% | 8.97% | -21.15% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:ARX
ARC Resources
28.96
0.99
3.55%
TSE:WCP
Whitecap Resources
14.95
6.18
70.45%
TSE:PEY
Peyto Exploration & Dev
27.06
10.03
58.88%
TSE:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
67.15
1.45
2.21%
TSE:SCR
Strathcona Resources
38.74
17.28
80.49%
ARC Resources Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
ARC Resources Confirms Quarterly Dividend, Underscoring Stable Payouts
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
ARC Resources Ltd. has confirmed a quarterly dividend of $0.21 per share, payable on April 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 31, 2026. The announcement brings the company’s trailing 12-month shareholder payments to $0.78 per sh...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ARC Resources to Issue C$950 Million in Senior Unsecured Notes
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
ARC Resources Ltd. has launched a C$950 million offering of senior unsecured notes, split between C$400 million of 3.349% Series 5 notes due 2029 and C$550 million of 4.104% Series 6 notes due 2033, with Morningstar DBRS assigning a provisional BB...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
ARC Resources Delivers Record 2025 Output, Cash Flow and Reserves as Montney Strategy Advances
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
ARC Resources reported record 2025 results, with fourth-quarter production reaching 408,382 boe per day and full-year output averaging 374,336 boe per day, both up 10 per cent on a per-share basis versus 2024. Strong funds from operations of $3.2 ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.