Imperial Oil (TSE:IMO)
XASE:IMO
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Imperial Oil
(NYSE MKT:IMO)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$192.00
â–²(14.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but cooling financial performance: a strong, low-leverage balance sheet offsets declining TTM revenue/margins and weakening free-cash-flow momentum. Technicals support a longer-term uptrend but near-term momentum is neutral. Valuation is a drag given the higher P/E versus a modest dividend yield. Earnings-call commentary was moderately positive on shareholder returns and operational progress, tempered by near-term earnings/cash-flow headwinds and downtime impacts.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.18) and substantial equity provide durable financial flexibility through commodity cycles. This balance-sheet strength supports sustained capex, a multi-decade dividend track record, and the ability to opportunistically buy back shares without jeopardizing liquidity.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin downcycle
A multi-period decline in revenue and compressed margins reflects a downcycle that reduces earnings power and cash available for reinvestment. If sustained, lower margins will constrain returns on equity and limit flexibility for incremental capital deployment or elevated shareholder distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.18) and substantial equity provide durable financial flexibility through commodity cycles. This balance-sheet strength supports sustained capex, a multi-decade dividend track record, and the ability to opportunistically buy back shares without jeopardizing liquidity.
Read all positive factors
Imperial Oil (IMO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$88.93B
Dividend Yield2.45%
Average Volume (3M)641.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.5
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-7.49%
EPS Growth-37.07%
CountryCA
Employees5,100
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.85
Shares Outstanding483,592,700
10 Day Avg. Volume588,993
30 Day Avg. Volume641,549
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)2.68
Price to Sales (P/S)1.27
P/FCF Ratio12.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$148.90Price Target Upside-10.86% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)12.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$59.30B
Imperial Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Imperial Oil Limited engages in exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. The company operates through three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical segments. The Upstream segment explores for, and produces crud...
How the Company Makes Money
Imperial Oil primarily makes money by producing hydrocarbons and selling energy and refined products across multiple segments of the value chain. (1) Upstream revenue: Imperial earns revenue from the sale of crude oil, bitumen, and natural gas pro...
Imperial Oil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced mix of positive operational progress and near-term financial/operational headwinds. Operational headlines were strong — production near record levels, Kearl and Cold Lake technology-driven growth, renewable diesel value capture, continued capital discipline, and a commitment to shareholder returns (dividend increase and NCIB). Offsetting these positives were notable near-term earnings and cash-flow pressures driven by an incentive compensation mark-to-market charge ($143M after tax), inventory-driven deferred tax impacts (~$350M), YoY cash-flow decline (~$521M), and unplanned downtime/feedstock disruptions that reduced throughput. Management emphasized long-term strategy, technology leverage and efficiency gains, making the tone constructive for the medium-to-long term while acknowledging short-term financial volatility.Positive Updates
Strong Operating Cash Flow (Excluding Working Capital)
Cash flows from operating activities excluding working capital effects were reported at $1,239 million (noted as >$1.2B), providing strong underlying cash generation despite working capital volatility.
Negative Updates
Net Income Decline Year-over-Year
Net income of $940 million was down $348 million versus Q1 2025 (approximately a 27% YoY decline), primarily due to higher incentive compensation charges and unfavorable upstream realizations from lower average commodity prices across the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operating Cash Flow (Excluding Working Capital)
Cash flows from operating activities excluding working capital effects were reported at $1,239 million (noted as >$1.2B), providing strong underlying cash generation despite working capital volatility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated steady guidance to prioritize sustaining and value‑creating growth while returning surplus cash to shareholders (renew NCIB late June and possible additional buybacks/SIBs depending on cash), maintain a reliable, growing dividend (Q1 dividends paid $350M; Q2 declared $0.87/share; 31 years of annual growth), and continue disciplined capital spending and restructuring to capture efficiency gains; key metrics cited in the call include Q1 net income $940M (down $348M YoY, up $448M sequentially), an incentive‑compensation mark‑to‑market charge of $143M after tax tied to a ~+$65 (50%+) share‑price rise, operating cash flow $756M (and, excluding working‑capital effects, over $1.2B — reported $1,239M) with an unfavorable deferred‑tax effect of ≈$350M, Q1 capex $478M (Upstream $362M), business‑line earnings Upstream $470M, Downstream $611M, Chemicals $24M, production/upstream targets and results including 419,000 boe/d upstream production (Kearl 259,000 bpd gross; Cold Lake 155,000 bpd; Syncrude 72,000 bpd) with targets of Kearl to 300,000 bpd and Cold Lake to 165,000 bpd (Grand Rapids >20,000 bpd; Leming ~9,000 bpd ramping; Mahihkan 30,000 bpd in 2029), refinery throughput 384,000 bpd (88% utilization), petroleum product sales 441,000 bpd, and continued advancement of the EBRT/Aspen pilot and planned turnarounds to support longer‑term unit‑cost and volume goals.Imperial Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 46.55B | 47.08B | 51.51B | 50.90B | 59.51B | 37.51B |
| Gross Profit | 7.69B | 9.99B | 9.20B | 9.22B | 12.19B | 6.09B |
| EBITDA | 6.36B | 6.83B | 8.24B | 8.27B | 11.28B | 5.23B |
| Net Income | 2.92B | 3.27B | 4.79B | 4.89B | 7.34B | 2.48B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 45.45B | 42.31B | 42.94B | 41.20B | 43.52B | 40.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.03B | 1.14B | 979.00M | 864.00M | 3.75B | 2.15B |
| Total Debt | 4.14B | 4.38B | 4.16B | 4.33B | 4.43B | 5.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.70B | 20.05B | 19.46B | 18.98B | 21.11B | 19.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 22.75B | 22.25B | 23.47B | 22.22B | 22.41B | 21.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.85B | 4.70B | 4.11B | 1.95B | 8.96B | 4.37B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.94B | 6.71B | 5.98B | 3.73B | 10.48B | 5.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.97B | -1.89B | -1.82B | -1.69B | -618.00M | -1.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.71B | -4.65B | -4.04B | -4.92B | -8.27B | -3.08B |
Imperial Oil Technical Analysis
Positive
167.04
Price Trends
176.62
Positive
161.08
Positive
142.74
Positive
Market Momentum
3.00
Negative
56.69
Neutral
60.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IMO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 167.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 178.93, below the 50-day MA of 176.62, and above the 200-day MA of 142.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:IMO.
Imperial Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$78.12B | 11.02 | 15.23% | 3.40% | -10.01% | 67.09% | |
76 Outperform | C$110.41B | 13.02 | 14.01% | 3.91% | 0.86% | 8.90% | |
73 Outperform | C$62.98B | 125.98 | 9.47% | 0.19% | 7.48% | 161.48% | |
71 Outperform | C$88.93B | 23.48 | 13.43% | 2.45% | -7.49% | -37.07% | |
71 Outperform | C$101.94B | 24.46 | 12.53% | 4.41% | 1.37% | -24.17% | |
70 Outperform | C$140.26B | 26.23 | 22.74% | 5.23% | 0.74% | 29.91% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:IMO
Imperial Oil
183.89
87.63
91.03%
TSE:CCO
Cameco
144.63
61.74
74.49%
TSE:CNQ
Canadian Natural
67.24
26.46
64.88%
TSE:CVE
Cenovus Energy
41.48
23.13
126.04%
TSE:SU
Suncor Energy
93.02
45.63
96.28%
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
97.90
31.65
47.77%
Imperial Oil Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Imperial Oil Schedules Webcast for 2026 First-Quarter Earnings Call
Neutral
Apr 15, 2026
Imperial Oil will hold its 2026 first-quarter earnings call on May 1, following the release of its quarterly results that morning, with chairman, president and CEO John Whelan and vice-president of investor relations Peter Shaw hosting the event v...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.