Imperial Oil (IMO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$52.38B
• Dividend Yield: 2.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 613.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 1.26%
• EPS Growth: 8.70%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 5,100
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 2.52
• Shares Outstanding: 509,044,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 610,603
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 613,987
• PEG Ratio: 34.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$100.47
• Price Target Upside: -2.36% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 83 Outperform
• Price Target: C$118.00 ▲(14.67%Upside)

Imperial Oil's overall stock score of 83 reflects its strong financial performance, characterized by consistent profitability and solid cash flow generation. The positive sentiment from the latest earnings call further enhances the outlook, supported by strategic growth initiatives. While the technical analysis suggests bullish momentum, caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions. The valuation metrics indicate the stock may be undervalued, offering an attractive opportunity for investors seeking income through dividends.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Imperial Oil delivered stronger-than-expected financial results, with upstream production expected to ramp up supported by optimization and start-up projects.

Share Repurchase

Imperial is well-positioned to repurchase shares aggressively, which could support additional share price upside.

Negative Factors

Dividend Growth

Higher capital expenditures and refining headwinds are seen as challenges that could limit the company's capacity for outsized dividend growth.

Refining Challenges

The current refining weaknesses are viewed as obstacles that make sustaining the same pace of dividend growth unlikely compared to peers.

Imperial Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Imperial Oil Limited engages in exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. The company operates through three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical segments. The Upstream segment explores for, and produces crude oil, natural gas, synthetic oil, and bitumen. As of December 31, 2021, this segment had 386 million oil-equivalent barrels of proved undeveloped reserves. The Downstream segment is involved in the transportation and refining of crude oil, blending of refined products and the distribution, and marketing of refined products. It also transports crude oil to refineries by contracted pipelines, common carrier pipelines, and rail; maintains a distribution system to move petroleum products to market by pipeline, tanker, rail, and road transport; and owns and operates fuel terminals, natural gas liquids, and products pipelines in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario. In addition, this segment markets and supplies petroleum products to motoring public through approximately 2,400 Esso and Mobil-branded sites. Further, it sells petroleum products, including fuel, asphalt, and lubricants for industrial and transportation customers, independent marketers, and resellers, as well as other refiners serving the agriculture, residential heating, and commercial markets through branded fuel and lubricant resellers. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets various petrochemicals, benzene, aromatic and aliphatic solvents, plasticizer intermediates, and polyethylene resin. Imperial Oil Limited has a strategic agreement with E3 Metals Corp. to advance a lithium-extraction pilot in Alberta. The company was incorporated in 1880 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. Imperial Oil Limited is a subsidiary of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

How the Company Makes Money

Imperial Oil makes money through several key revenue streams. The company's upstream segment generates revenue from the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, including operations in the oil sands. This involves extracting bitumen and upgrading it to synthetic crude oil. The downstream segment earns revenue from refining crude oil into petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then marketed and sold through a network of retail and commercial channels. Additionally, Imperial Oil's chemical segment contributes to earnings by producing and selling petrochemical products. Strategic partnerships, particularly with ExxonMobil, provide technological and operational support that enhances Imperial's capabilities and market reach. These factors, combined with fluctuations in global commodity prices, contribute significantly to the company's financial performance.

Imperial Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Imperial Oil's financial performance is robust, with strong profitability reflected in a gross profit margin of 14.60% and a net profit margin of 9.95%. The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 and an impressive return on equity of 20.01%. Additionally, the cash flow is strong, with a free cash flow growth rate of 13.36%, supporting the company's strategic and operational flexibility. Overall, the financials indicate a well-positioned company in its industry, with some caution advised regarding debt levels.

Income Statement

Imperial Oil has demonstrated strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 14.60% and a net profit margin of 9.95%. The company has maintained a stable EBIT margin of 12.63% and an EBITDA margin of 17.07% in the TTM. Revenue grew by 0.44% from the previous annual period, indicating modest growth. Overall, consistent profitability and manageable growth underpin a robust income statement.

Balance Sheet

Imperial Oil's balance sheet reflects a solid equity position, with an equity ratio of 55.60%, indicating strong financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.17, showing conservative leverage levels. Return on Equity stands at 20.01%, showcasing efficient use of equity capital. The balance sheet is stable, though the slight increase in total debt warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow growth rate of 13.36% TTM, reflecting effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.32, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.95, indicating good cash flow generation relative to earnings. Overall, the cash flow position is robust, supporting operational and strategic flexibility.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
25.18B	48.82B	48.30B	57.23B	35.58B	20.55B
	Gross Profit
1.79B	7.06B	6.62B	10.19B	4.11B	-1.57B
	EBIT
622.00M	6.11B	7.99B	9.29B	3.25B	-2.45B
	EBITDA
2.24B	8.43B	8.35B	11.18B	5.23B	929.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
2.60B	4.79B	4.89B	7.34B	2.48B	-1.86B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.76B	979.00M	864.00M	3.75B	2.15B	771.00M
	Total Assets
43.89B	42.94B	41.20B	43.52B	40.78B	38.03B
	Total Debt
4.15B	4.16B	4.33B	4.31B	5.32B	5.28B
	Net Debt
2.39B	3.18B	3.47B	557.00M	3.17B	4.51B
	Total Liabilities
19.48B	19.46B	18.98B	21.11B	19.05B	16.61B
	Stockholders Equity
24.41B	23.47B	22.22B	22.41B	21.73B	21.42B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.52B	4.11B	1.95B	8.96B	4.37B	-70.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
2.32B	5.98B	3.73B	10.48B	5.48B	798.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
2.37B	-1.82B	-1.69B	-618.00M	-1.01B	-802.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-4.17B	-4.04B	-4.92B	-8.27B	-3.08B	-943.00M

Imperial Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 102.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IMO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 102.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 99.56, above the 50-day MA of 95.49, and above the 200-day MA of 96.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:IMO.

Imperial Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IMO	83 Outperform	C$52.38B	11.03	20.61%	2.80%	1.26%	8.70%
CNQ	83 Outperform	$92.17B	12.29	18.99%	5.09%	7.78%	4.75%
SU	76 Outperform	$63.16B	10.65	13.74%	4.43%	2.16%	-20.22%
CVE	76 Outperform	$33.63B	12.24	9.50%	3.42%	1.57%	-38.04%
PPL	74 Outperform	$29.71B	16.67	11.55%	5.32%	-5.42%	-1.70%
TRP	74 Outperform	$70.47B	16.11	15.89%	4.76%	0.72%	60.40%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.35B	3.36	-4.49%	5.60%	0.82%	-49.15%

Imperial Oil Corporate Events

Imperial Oil Announces Leadership Change in Sustainability

Imperial Oil Limited announced the departure of Sherri Evers, Senior Vice President of Sustainability, Commercial Development and Product Solutions, who will assume the role of North America Lubes General Manager at Exxon Mobil Corporation, effective March 1, 2025. Evers’ leadership significantly contributed to Imperial’s strategic projects, including the Strathcona renewable diesel project and the Low Carbon Solutions business, highlighting her impact on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and forming the Pathways Alliance for oil sands operations.

Imperial Oil Unveils Ambitious 2025 Growth Strategy

Imperial Oil has released its 2025 corporate guidance, highlighting a strategy focused on maximizing asset value and pursuing high-value growth opportunities. The company plans to enhance operating performance with increased production and reduced costs at its Kearl and Cold Lake operations, supported by strategic investments in technology and expansion projects. Key initiatives for 2025 include the start-up of the Strathcona Renewable Diesel project and optimization efforts to improve logistics and processing flexibility. Imperial forecasts capital and exploration expenditures between $1.9 to $2.1 billion, with production and throughput expected to grow, leveraging its logistics network to move products to high-value markets and focusing on reducing emissions intensity.

Imperial Oil to Host 2025 Guidance Outlook Call

Imperial Oil Limited is set to host its 2025 corporate guidance outlook call on December 12, 2024, at 9:00 a.m. MT, accessible via webcast. Investors can expect insights from top executives, including CEO Brad Corson, and can catch the webcast replay for a full year on the company’s website. This event is crucial for those tracking Imperial’s strategy and market positioning.

Imperial Oil Declares Stable Fourth-Quarter Dividend

Imperial Oil Limited announced a fourth-quarter dividend of 60 cents per share, maintaining consistency with the previous quarter. This payout, scheduled for January 1, 2025, highlights the company’s long-standing commitment to financial stability and growth, having increased annual dividends for 30 consecutive years. Known for its leadership in Canada’s petroleum industry, Imperial continues to uphold high standards and innovation in energy resource development.

Imperial Oil to Host Q3 Earnings Call Nov 1

Imperial Oil Limited is set to host its third quarter earnings call on November 1, 2024, at 9:00 a.m. MT, following the release of its earnings. The call, led by CEO Brad Corson, will be accessible via webcast and will include remarks and a Q&A session with analysts. Interested parties can register for the live event online, and the webcast will be available for replay on the company’s website for one year.