Imperial Oil (IMO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$58.23B
• Dividend Yield: 2.46%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: -6.18%
• EPS Growth: -14.06%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 5,100
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 2.17
• Shares Outstanding: 496,861,020
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,163,125
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,015,699
• PEG Ratio: 1.54
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.91
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$109.81
• Price Target Upside: -6.30% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$49.32B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: C$142.00 ▲(21.17% Upside)

Imperial Oil's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including record production and strategic restructuring plans. However, technical indicators suggest potential short-term bearish momentum, and recent revenue declines and restructuring charges present some risks.

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Imperial Oil's robust cash flow generation supports its ability to fund operations, invest in growth, and return capital to shareholders, indicating strong financial health.

Record Production Levels

Achieving record production levels enhances Imperial Oil's market position and revenue potential, demonstrating operational efficiency and resource management.

Operational Efficiency Improvements

Reduced unit cash costs improve profitability and competitiveness, allowing Imperial Oil to maintain margins even in volatile market conditions.

Negative Factors

Restructuring Charges

Significant restructuring charges impact short-term earnings, reflecting transitional costs that may affect financial performance until efficiencies are realized.

Impairment Charge

Impairment charges reduce asset values and earnings, indicating potential challenges in asset management and strategic realignment.

Decline in Upstream Earnings

A decline in upstream earnings suggests challenges in maintaining profitability amid fluctuating market conditions, impacting overall financial performance.

Imperial Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) is one of Canada's largest integrated oil companies, engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and marketing of petroleum products. Established in 1880 and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Imperial operates in various sectors including upstream oil and gas production, refining, and petroleum marketing. The company is known for its strong presence in the Canadian oil sands, as well as its extensive network of retail gas stations and petrochemical facilities, providing a wide range of products including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and lubricants.

How the Company Makes Money

Imperial Oil generates revenue primarily through its integrated business model, which includes upstream exploration and production, downstream refining, and marketing operations. The company earns money through the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its oil sands and conventional production assets. In the downstream segment, Imperial refines crude oil into various petroleum products and sells them through its retail network and commercial channels. Key revenue streams include the sale of gasoline and diesel at its retail stations, as well as the production and sale of petrochemicals. Significant partnerships, such as joint ventures with other energy companies and collaborations related to technology and sustainability initiatives, also contribute to its earnings. Additionally, fluctuations in global oil prices and operational efficiencies play crucial roles in influencing the company's profitability.

Imperial Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Imperial Oil demonstrates strong profitability with solid margins and a robust balance sheet. Despite a recent revenue decline, the company maintains efficient operations and strong cash flow generation, supported by low leverage and high return on equity.

Income Statement

Imperial Oil's income statement reflects a strong gross profit margin of 18.45% and a net profit margin of 9.48% for the TTM, indicating solid profitability. However, the company experienced a revenue decline of 3.20% in the TTM, which could be a concern if the trend continues. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, showing efficient operations despite the revenue dip.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, suggesting conservative leverage. Return on equity is strong at 19.47%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid financial position with a good balance between assets and equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive free cash flow growth of 6.53% in the TTM, demonstrating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, indicating good cash conversion from earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.72 suggests room for improvement in cash flow efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	48.01B	51.51B	50.90B	59.51B	37.51B	22.28B
Gross Profit	8.15B	9.20B	9.22B	12.19B	6.09B	1.72B
EBITDA	7.69B	8.24B	8.27B	11.28B	5.23B	845.00M
Net Income	4.00B	4.79B	4.89B	7.34B	2.48B	-1.86B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	30.85B	42.94B	41.20B	43.52B	40.78B	38.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.34B	979.00M	864.00M	3.75B	2.15B	771.00M
Total Debt	3.03B	4.16B	4.33B	4.43B	5.42B	5.28B
Total Liabilities	13.84B	19.46B	18.98B	21.11B	19.05B	16.61B
Stockholders Equity	17.01B	23.47B	22.22B	22.41B	21.73B	21.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.78B	4.11B	1.95B	8.96B	4.37B	-70.00M
Operating Cash Flow	6.58B	5.98B	3.73B	10.48B	5.48B	798.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.74B	-1.82B	-1.69B	-618.00M	-1.01B	-802.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.47B	-4.04B	-4.92B	-8.27B	-3.08B	-943.00M

Imperial Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 117.19
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IMO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 117.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.68, below the 50-day MA of 128.28, and above the 200-day MA of 112.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.93 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.97 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:IMO.

Imperial Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CNQ	81 Outperform	$92.66B	14.17	16.17%	5.23%	8.06%	-10.64%
SU	77 Outperform	$70.95B	13.81	11.41%	3.91%	-3.08%	-31.48%
CVE	73 Outperform	C$43.50B	13.29	10.65%	3.40%	-9.17%	-12.97%
IMO	72 Outperform	C$58.23B	15.04	16.52%	2.46%	-6.18%	-14.06%
CCO	71 Outperform	$54.93B	105.88	7.97%	0.19%	23.88%	350.69%
TRP	70 Outperform	$78.54B	23.44	12.96%	4.41%	-3.98%	-33.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Imperial Oil Corporate Events

Imperial Oil Announces Strategic Restructuring for Enhanced Efficiency and Growth

Imperial Oil has announced a restructuring plan aimed at enhancing its cash flow and delivering superior shareholder returns by centralizing corporate and technical activities in global business and technology centers. This move is expected to result in $150 million in annual expense savings by 2028 and involves a reduction in employee roles by approximately 20% by 2027. The restructuring leverages Imperial’s relationship with ExxonMobil to maximize asset value and improve productivity, positioning the company for long-term growth and industry-leading returns.

Imperial Oil Announces Board Changes with New Appointments

Imperial Oil announced the appointment of Tanya Bryja to its board of directors, effective September 16, 2025. Bryja, currently ExxonMobil’s Senior Vice President of Energy Products, brings over 27 years of experience to the role. Additionally, the company revealed that David Cornhill will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual meeting due to reaching the mandatory retirement age, with Miranda Hubbs set to succeed him as Lead Director on October 1, 2025. These changes are part of an orderly transition plan for the board’s leadership.