Canadian Natural (CNQ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$140.07B
• Dividend Yield: 5.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 15.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: 8.06%
• EPS Growth: -10.64%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 10,640
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.82
• Shares Outstanding: 2,085,972,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 26,702,487
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 15,217,519
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.51
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$58.84
• Price Target Upside: -12.38% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$38.17B

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: C$72.00 ▲(7.22% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability and cash generation) and an attractive valuation (low P/E with a solid dividend). Technicals support the uptrend but are tempered by overbought signals, while the latest earnings call was constructive with raised production guidance and strong operating metrics despite natural gas price pressure and some operational headwinds.

Positive Factors

Robust cash generation

Sustained increases in operating and free cash flow in 2025 indicate durable internal funding for capital, dividends, and debt reduction. Strong cash generation reduces reliance on external financing, supports cyclical resiliency, and underpins shareholder returns and reinvestment over the next several quarters.

Record and diversified production

Material production growth, across liquids and gas, reflects successful integration of acquired assets and operational scale. Diversified volumes lower single-asset risk, improve resilience to localized outages, and provide a multi-month runway of production-driven cash flow that supports operations and returns.

Solid balance-sheet liquidity

Manageable leverage and multi-billion liquidity provide flexibility to fund sustaining/growth capex, weather commodity downturns, and maintain distributions. Low debt-to-EBITDA and sizeable liquidity materially reduce refinancing and solvency risk over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Revenue decline and cyclicality

A falling revenue trend combined with historical cyclical volatility highlights sensitivity to commodity markets. Even with recent profit recovery, revenues can reverse quickly if prices or basis deteriorate, pressuring margins, capital plans and shareholder returns across the next several quarters.

Rising debt since 2023

An uptick in absolute debt levels limits strategic optionality if commodity cash flows weaken. Higher nominal debt increases interest and covenant exposure, constraining the firm's ability to accelerate buybacks or capex and making it more sensitive to downturns in the 2-6 month horizon.

Natural gas price pressure

Sustained weak regional gas prices directly reduce realized margins on a sizeable gas portfolio and compress free cash flow. Structural basis weakness can persist for months, limiting the benefit from production gains and increasing earnings volatility for the company during the next several quarters.

Canadian Natural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Canadian Natural Resources Limited acquires, explores for, develops, produces, markets, and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company offers synthetic crude oil (SCO), light and medium crude oil, bitumen (thermal oil), primary heavy crude oil, and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil. Its midstream and refining assets include two crude oil pipeline systems; and a 50% working interest in an 84-megawatt cogeneration plant at Primrose. As of December 31, 2020, the company had total proved crude oil, bitumen, and NGLs reserves were 10,528 million barrels (MMbbl); total proved plus probable crude oil, bitumen, and NGLs reserves were 13,271 MMbbl; proved SCO reserves were 6,998 MMbbl; total proved plus probable SCO reserves were 7,535 MMbbl; proved natural gas reserves were 12,168 billion cubic feet (Bcf); and total proved plus probable natural gas reserves were 20,249 Bcf. It operates primarily in Western Canada; the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea; and Offshore Africa. The company was formerly known as AEX Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in December 1975. Canadian Natural Resources Limited was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Canadian Natural generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's key revenue streams come from the sale of its various hydrocarbon products, with crude oil sales typically accounting for a substantial portion of its earnings. CNQ benefits from its diversified asset base, which includes both conventional and unconventional resources, allowing it to optimize production and manage costs effectively. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Additionally, CNQ's revenue is influenced by global commodity prices, operational efficiency, and its ability to manage transportation and logistics effectively.

Canadian Natural Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and improved net income in 2025, with solid balance-sheet support and strong operating/free cash flow. Offsetting risks include revenue decline, rising debt versus 2023, and cycle-driven volatility typical of commodity-exposed producers.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong in the latest annual period (2025), with healthy gross and operating profitability and a notably high net margin. Net income rebounded sharply versus 2024 and is back near prior cycle highs. The key weakness is growth: revenue declined in 2025 after being roughly flat in 2024, and results remain cyclical (including a loss year in 2020), indicating meaningful commodity-price sensitivity and earnings volatility across the cycle.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with debt at under half of equity in 2025, and equity has grown steadily over the last two years, supporting balance-sheet resilience. Returns on equity are solid in 2025, reflecting strong profitability. The main concern is a noticeable increase in debt since 2023, which reduces flexibility if the commodity environment weakens, even though leverage remains reasonable versus equity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong: operating cash flow and free cash flow both increased in 2025, and operating cash flow comfortably covers accounting earnings. Free cash flow is substantial, supporting debt reduction and shareholder returns potential. The primary weakness is conversion—free cash flow is meaningfully below net income in 2025—and free cash flow has been more volatile across years, consistent with a capital-intensive and cyclical business.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	38.76B	41.51B	40.84B	49.53B	32.85B
Gross Profit	9.02B	10.90B	11.77B	16.26B	10.58B
EBITDA	17.99B	15.41B	17.27B	21.73B	16.38B
Net Income	10.82B	6.11B	8.23B	10.94B	7.66B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	91.83B	85.36B	75.95B	76.14B	76.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	673.00M	131.00M	1.40B	1.41B	1.05B
Total Debt	19.72B	20.28B	12.35B	12.98B	16.28B
Total Liabilities	47.46B	45.89B	36.12B	37.97B	39.72B
Stockholders Equity	44.37B	39.47B	39.83B	38.17B	36.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.43B	8.00B	7.44B	14.29B	9.99B
Operating Cash Flow	15.11B	13.39B	12.35B	19.39B	14.48B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.69B	-14.10B	-4.86B	-4.99B	-3.70B
Financing Cash Flow	-7.88B	-37.00M	-7.54B	-14.23B	-10.21B

Canadian Natural Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 67.15
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CNQ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.41, above the 50-day MA of 54.34, and above the 200-day MA of 46.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 85.39 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CNQ.

Canadian Natural Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CNQ	80 Outperform	C$140.07B	8.98	25.98%	5.23%	8.06%	-10.64%
SCR	76 Outperform	C$8.34B	-15.31	17.87%	2.99%	-11.41%	40.81%
PSK	75 Outperform	C$7.46B	30.68	7.90%	3.76%	-1.59%	0.09%
WCP	71 Outperform	C$17.42B	11.60	10.14%	6.33%	36.36%	-19.92%
ARX	71 Outperform	C$15.93B	11.74	15.52%	2.95%	15.61%	12.15%
TOU	69 Neutral	C$25.85B	89.45	8.69%	4.79%	8.97%	-21.15%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Canadian Natural Corporate Events

Canadian Natural Sets Ambitious 2026 Budget with Focus on Growth and Shareholder Returns

Canadian Natural Resources Limited announced its 2026 budget, emphasizing a disciplined operating capital budget of approximately $6.3 billion aimed at delivering value growth and strong returns on capital. The company targets a production growth of about 3% over 2025 levels, with an annual average production between 1,590 MBOE/d and 1,650 MBOE/d. The budget includes investments in short and medium-term production growth, as well as front-end engineering for long-term value opportunities. The company also plans to allocate capital towards carbon capture projects and maintain a flexible drilling program to adapt to market conditions. This strategic approach is expected to generate significant free cash flow, which will be used for dividends, share repurchases, and debt reduction, enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.