Canadian Natural (CNQ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $100.05B
• Dividend Yield: 5.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 21.80M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.83
• Revenue Growth: 8.06%
• EPS Growth: -10.64%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 10,640
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.86
• Shares Outstanding: 2,083,107,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 18,061,988
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,801,100
• PEG Ratio: -0.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.34
• 1Y Price Target: $51.55
• Price Target Upside: 7.34% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: C$49.00 ▲(2.02% Upside)

Canadian Natural's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's robust operational efficiency, strategic acquisitions, and consistent dividend growth further enhance its attractiveness. Technical indicators support a bullish outlook, while valuation metrics suggest the stock is reasonably priced.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Prudent leverage and a strong ROE provide durable financial flexibility to fund capex, dividends and opportunistic M&A without stressing liquidity. A ~47% equity ratio and low net leverage reduce refinancing risk and improve resilience through commodity cycles.

Cash flow generation

Healthy cash conversion and positive FCF growth underpin sustainable capital deployment, dividend increases and shareholder returns. Strong operating cash relative to earnings reduces reliance on external financing and supports long-term investment across commodity cycles.

Scale from production growth and acquisitions

Significant scale from record output and strategic asset additions diversifies product mix and improves per-share growth potential. Low unit costs in oil sands ($21/bbl mining, $10.35 thermal) give a durable cost advantage that supports margins across cycles.

Negative Factors

Natural gas price exposure

Material gas volumes (notably higher North American gas production) expose cash flow to regional AECO weakness. Prolonged low gas prices can depress realized margins and increase revenue volatility, undermining stability despite higher production volumes.

Oil sands operational execution risk

Large-scale oil sands are capital- and equipment-intensive; persistent utilization or optimization issues can raise unit costs and delay expected synergies from acquisitions. Execution shortfalls can materially erode margin gains and slow long-term cash generation.

Slowing revenue momentum

A decline in top-line growth points to softer organic demand or price realization, which narrows room for margin expansion and forces greater reliance on acquisitions and volume growth to drive earnings per share. Sustained slowdown risks lower long-term growth.

Canadian Natural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Canadian Natural Resources Limited acquires, explores for, develops, produces, markets, and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company offers synthetic crude oil (SCO), light and medium crude oil, bitumen (thermal oil), primary heavy crude oil, and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil. Its midstream and refining assets include two crude oil pipeline systems; and a 50% working interest in an 84-megawatt cogeneration plant at Primrose. As of December 31, 2020, the company had total proved crude oil, bitumen, and NGLs reserves were 10,528 million barrels (MMbbl); total proved plus probable crude oil, bitumen, and NGLs reserves were 13,271 MMbbl; proved SCO reserves were 6,998 MMbbl; total proved plus probable SCO reserves were 7,535 MMbbl; proved natural gas reserves were 12,168 billion cubic feet (Bcf); and total proved plus probable natural gas reserves were 20,249 Bcf. It operates primarily in Western Canada; the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea; and Offshore Africa. The company was formerly known as AEX Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in December 1975. Canadian Natural Resources Limited was incorporated in 1973 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Canadian Natural generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company's key revenue streams come from the sale of its various hydrocarbon products, with crude oil sales typically accounting for a substantial portion of its earnings. CNQ benefits from its diversified asset base, which includes both conventional and unconventional resources, allowing it to optimize production and manage costs effectively. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Additionally, CNQ's revenue is influenced by global commodity prices, operational efficiency, and its ability to manage transportation and logistics effectively.

Canadian Natural Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Canadian Natural exhibits strong profitability with robust EBIT and EBITDA margins, and a stable balance sheet with a healthy equity ratio. However, challenges include a slight decline in revenue growth and free cash flow, impacting the overall financial performance score.

Income Statement

Canadian Natural's income statement shows strong profitability with a solid gross profit margin of 29.64% and a net profit margin of 18.88% for the TTM. However, there is a slight decline in revenue growth rate at -2.11%, indicating some challenges in maintaining top-line growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain robust at 26.27% and 44.29%, respectively, reflecting efficient cost management and operational strength.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43, suggesting a balanced approach to leverage. The return on equity is healthy at 19.03%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 48.43%, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth rate at -13.66%, which could impact future investments or debt repayments. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.71, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also solid at 0.63, reflecting adequate cash flow coverage of earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	42.97B	41.51B	40.84B	49.53B	32.85B	16.89B
Gross Profit	13.33B	10.90B	11.77B	16.26B	10.58B	-136.00M
EBITDA	17.63B	15.41B	17.27B	21.73B	16.38B	6.13B
Net Income	6.66B	6.11B	8.23B	10.94B	7.66B	-435.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	85.59B	85.36B	75.95B	76.14B	76.67B	75.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	113.00M	131.00M	1.40B	1.41B	1.05B	489.00M
Total Debt	17.27B	20.28B	12.35B	12.98B	16.28B	23.14B
Total Liabilities	45.13B	45.89B	36.12B	37.97B	39.72B	42.90B
Stockholders Equity	40.46B	39.47B	39.83B	38.17B	36.95B	32.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.15B	8.00B	7.44B	14.29B	9.99B	2.16B
Operating Cash Flow	14.77B	13.39B	12.35B	19.39B	14.48B	4.71B
Investing Cash Flow	-15.90B	-14.10B	-4.86B	-4.99B	-3.70B	-2.82B
Financing Cash Flow	523.00M	-37.00M	-7.54B	-14.23B	-10.21B	-1.85B

Canadian Natural Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 48.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CNQ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.70, above the 50-day MA of 45.36, and above the 200-day MA of 42.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CNQ.

Canadian Natural Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CNQ	81 Outperform	$100.05B	15.14	16.17%	5.23%	8.06%	-10.64%
PSK	75 Outperform	C$6.23B	28.73	8.16%	3.76%	-1.59%	0.09%
WCP	74 Outperform	C$14.06B	9.88	10.88%	6.33%	36.36%	-19.92%
ARX	74 Outperform	C$13.32B	9.87	17.02%	2.95%	15.61%	12.15%
TOU	73 Outperform	C$22.61B	16.63	8.69%	4.79%	8.97%	-21.15%
SCR	69 Neutral	C$5.61B	5.11	9.60%	2.99%	-11.41%	40.81%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Canadian Natural Corporate Events

Canadian Natural Sets Ambitious 2026 Budget with Focus on Growth and Shareholder Returns

Canadian Natural Resources Limited announced its 2026 budget, emphasizing a disciplined operating capital budget of approximately $6.3 billion aimed at delivering value growth and strong returns on capital. The company targets a production growth of about 3% over 2025 levels, with an annual average production between 1,590 MBOE/d and 1,650 MBOE/d. The budget includes investments in short and medium-term production growth, as well as front-end engineering for long-term value opportunities. The company also plans to allocate capital towards carbon capture projects and maintain a flexible drilling program to adapt to market conditions. This strategic approach is expected to generate significant free cash flow, which will be used for dividends, share repurchases, and debt reduction, enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Natural Resources Prices C$1.65 Billion in Medium-Term Notes

Canadian Natural Resources Limited announced the pricing of C$1,650 million in medium-term notes, with maturities of 3, 5, and 10 years, to be used for general corporate purposes and potentially for debt repayment. The issuance is part of the company’s strategy to manage its financial resources effectively, with the offering expected to close on December 8, 2025, subject to customary conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Buy with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Natural Announces 25th Year of Dividend Increases

Canadian Natural Resources Limited has announced a quarterly cash dividend of C$0.5875 per common share, payable on January 6, 2026. This marks the 25th consecutive year of dividend increases, reflecting the company’s confidence in its sustainable business model, strong balance sheet, and robust asset base.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Hold with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Natural Reports Record Q3 Production and Strategic Acquisition

Canadian Natural Resources Limited reported record production volumes in the third quarter of 2025, achieving a 19% increase in total corporate production compared to the previous year. The company closed a significant transaction with Shell Canada, gaining full ownership of the Albian oil sands mines, which is expected to enhance cash flow and operational efficiency. Financially, the company maintained a strong balance sheet and returned $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Hold with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.

Canadian Natural Completes Strategic Asset Swap with Shell, Updates 2025 Guidance

Canadian Natural Resources Limited has completed an asset swap with Shell Canada, gaining full ownership of the Albian oil sands mines while Shell retains a 20% interest in the Scotford Upgrader and Quest facilities. This strategic move enhances Canadian Natural’s operational efficiency and increases its bitumen production by 31,000 barrels per day, contributing to a projected 15% production growth in 2025. The company’s updated production guidance for 2025 is set between 1,560 and 1,580 MBOE/d, with a capital forecast of $5.9 billion, reflecting strong execution and capital discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CNQ) stock is a Buy with a C$49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Canadian Natural stock, see the TSE:CNQ Stock Forecast page.