Canadian Natural (CNQ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$88.67B
• Dividend Yield: 5.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.45M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: 7.78%
• EPS Growth: 4.75%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 10,640
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 43
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.16
• Shares Outstanding: 2,093,276,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 15,944,554
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,454,161
• PEG Ratio: 0.48
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.75
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$49.90
• Price Target Upside: 17.79% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 83 Outperform
• Price Target: C$49.00 ▲(15.68%Upside)

Canadian Natural Resources scores well overall, driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights. The robust dividend yield and compelling valuation metrics further bolster the stock's attractiveness, offset by modest technical indicators that suggest stability rather than strong momentum.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

The company decreased its net debt by approximately $1.4 billion, which is seen positively by investors.

Dividend Yield

Valuation for CNQ is attractive, with the stock trading at a ~6% dividend yield.

Financial Performance

Canadian Natural Resources posted higher cash flow per share than expected due to increased production, strong realizations, and lower operating expenses.

Negative Factors

Macro Outlook

There is a more uncertain macro outlook with downside risk to commodity prices.

Royalties

The price target for CNQ has been reduced due to rising royalties.

Tariffs

There is uncertainty around tariffs, but CNQ management expects some costs to be absorbed by the US consumer.

Canadian Natural Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is one of the largest independent crude oil and natural gas producers in the world, headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The company operates across several key sectors, including oil sands mining and upgrading, conventional light and heavy crude oil, bitumen, and natural gas. Canadian Natural is known for its diverse portfolio of assets and its commitment to sustainable operations, focusing on a balanced approach to resource development.

How the Company Makes Money

Canadian Natural makes money primarily through the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. Its key revenue streams include the sale of these commodities in domestic and international markets. The company operates a diversified asset base with significant production from oil sands mining, thermal in situ production, and conventional oil and gas operations. Canadian Natural benefits from economies of scale, operational efficiency, and a flexible capital allocation strategy that allows it to optimize production and navigate market fluctuations. Additionally, the company engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures, contributing to its earnings and providing opportunities for growth and development in the energy sector.

Canadian Natural Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Canadian Natural exhibits robust financial health with strong growth in both revenue and profit margins, supported by efficient operations and effective capital management. The balance sheet indicates a careful leverage strategy, though increasing debt levels warrant attention. Overall, the company shows a positive financial trajectory with strong returns for shareholders.

Income Statement

The company demonstrated strong revenue growth from the previous period with a TTM revenue of $40.12 billion, up from $35.66 billion annually. Gross and net profit margins are healthy at 29.6% and 18.9% respectively, indicating efficient cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins of 28.1% and 44.3% further highlight operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

A solid equity ratio of 47.7% suggests prudent financial management, though the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.43 indicates moderate leverage. The return on equity is robust at 18.7%, reflecting strong shareholder returns. However, the increase in total debt over the TTM period signals potential risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.95 suggests strong cash generation relative to profit. Free cash flow growth rate is impressive at 15.4%, indicating effective capital management. However, the cash reserves are relatively low, which could limit flexibility.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
40.12B	35.66B	35.97B	49.53B	32.85B	17.49B
	Gross Profit
11.89B	10.51B	11.41B	16.26B	10.58B	69.00M
	EBIT
11.26B	9.73B	10.46B	14.76B	9.51B	-445.00M
	EBITDA
17.77B	16.27B	17.64B	22.01B	16.16B	6.13B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
7.58B	6.11B	8.23B	10.94B	7.66B	-435.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
93.00M	131.00M	1.40B	1.41B	1.05B	489.00M
	Total Assets
84.81B	85.36B	75.95B	76.14B	76.67B	75.28B
	Total Debt
17.43B	20.28B	12.35B	11.45B	14.69B	21.45B
	Net Debt
17.34B	20.15B	11.48B	10.53B	13.95B	21.27B
	Total Liabilities
44.37B	45.89B	36.12B	37.97B	39.72B	42.90B
	Stockholders Equity
40.45B	39.47B	39.83B	38.17B	36.95B	32.38B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
9.23B	8.00B	7.44B	14.29B	9.99B	2.16B
	Operating Cash Flow
14.80B	13.39B	12.35B	19.39B	14.48B	4.71B
	Investing Cash Flow
-14.02B	-14.10B	-4.86B	-4.99B	-3.70B	-2.82B
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.46B	-37.00M	-7.54B	-14.23B	-10.21B	-1.85B

Canadian Natural Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 42.36
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CNQ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.82, above the 50-day MA of 41.35, and below the 200-day MA of 43.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CNQ.

Canadian Natural Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CNQ	83 Outperform	C$88.67B	11.82	18.99%	5.10%	7.78%	4.75%
WCP	76 Outperform	$10.64B	5.62	16.40%	8.26%	5.56%	35.85%
ARX	75 Outperform	C$17.06B	12.82	17.25%	2.43%	2.20%	13.50%
MEG	73 Outperform	$6.45B	10.75	13.64%	1.17%	-10.66%	13.34%
TOU	73 Outperform	C$23.57B	18.63	8.35%	2.42%	-8.29%	-30.52%
PSK	65 Neutral	$5.43B	24.08	8.39%	4.33%	1.73%	3.68%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$7.16B	3.10	-4.49%	5.66%	0.82%	-49.15%

Canadian Natural Corporate Events

Canadian Natural Reports Strong Shareholder Support at Annual Meeting

Canadian Natural Resources Limited held its Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders, where key resolutions were voted on, including the election of directors, appointment of auditors, and approval of the employee stock option plan and executive compensation approach. The results reflect strong shareholder support for the company’s leadership and strategic initiatives, indicating a stable outlook for its governance and operational strategies.

Canadian Natural Reports Record Q1 2025 Production and Financial Gains

Canadian Natural Resources Limited reported record production levels in the first quarter of 2025, achieving approximately 1,582,000 BOE/d, with significant contributions from both liquids and natural gas. The company also announced a reduction in its 2025 capital budget by $100 million without impacting its planned operations, highlighting its focus on cost efficiencies and shareholder value. Financially, the company achieved strong results with adjusted net earnings of $2.4 billion and returned $1.7 billion to shareholders. The company continues to strengthen its balance sheet and maintain a robust business model with a low breakeven point, ensuring sustainable operations and competitive advantages.

Canadian Natural Resources Declares Increased Quarterly Dividend

Canadian Natural Resources Limited has announced a quarterly cash dividend of C$0.5875 per common share, payable on July 3, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 13, 2025. This marks the 25th consecutive year of dividend increases, reflecting the company’s confidence in its sustainable business model, strong balance sheet, and robust asset base.

Canadian Natural Resources Amends Stock Option Plan

Canadian Natural Resources Limited has amended its Stock Option Plan to require shareholder approval for any amendments to the plan’s provisions. This amendment aligns with Institutional Shareholder Services’ policies and will be voted on at the upcoming annual and special meeting of shareholders, potentially impacting shareholder engagement and governance practices.

Canadian Natural Announces Share Repurchase Plan

Canadian Natural Resources Limited has announced a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) approved by the Toronto Stock Exchange, allowing the company to repurchase up to 178,738,237 shares over a 12-month period starting March 13, 2025. This move is part of Canadian Natural’s strategy to manage free cash flow allocation, with a focus on shareholder returns and maintaining a strong balance sheet. The company plans to implement an automatic share purchase plan to facilitate these repurchases, even during blackout periods, highlighting its commitment to enhancing shareholder value.