Canadian Natural (TSE:CNQ)
TSX:CNQ
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Canadian Natural
(TSX:CNQ)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
C$78.00
â–²(14.32% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation/profitability and an attractive valuation (low P/E with a meaningful dividend yield). Technicals are supportive via a clear uptrend but are tempered by an elevated RSI. Earnings-call guidance was positive (higher production, lower capex, dividend increase), while commodity cyclicality and regulatory uncertainty around Jackpine remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & shareholder returns
The company generated substantial adjusted funds flow ($15.5B) and returned roughly $9B in 2025 via dividends, buybacks and net-debt reduction. Durable free cash flow at scale supports a sustainable capital-allocation framework, enabling continued shareholder returns and balance-sheet repair across cycles.
Negative Factors
Regulatory delay to major growth project
Deferral of the ~$8.25B Jackpine FEED due to regulatory and egress uncertainty delays a material, long-term production expansion. This reduces near-term growth optionality, pushes out future cash-flow upside and highlights persistent regulatory execution risk for capital-intensive projects.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation & shareholder returns
The company generated substantial adjusted funds flow ($15.5B) and returned roughly $9B in 2025 via dividends, buybacks and net-debt reduction. Durable free cash flow at scale supports a sustainable capital-allocation framework, enabling continued shareholder returns and balance-sheet repair across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Canadian Natural (CNQ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$133.75B
Dividend Yield5.23%
Average Volume (3M)22.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth8.06%
EPS Growth-10.64%
CountryCA
Employees10,640
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.82
Shares Outstanding2,085,972,000
10 Day Avg. Volume17,014,204
30 Day Avg. Volume22,355,113
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)2.51
P/FCF Ratio11.53
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$66.63Price Target Upside-2.34% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)4.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$40.17B
Canadian Natural Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canadian Natural Resources Limited acquires, explores for, develops, produces, markets, and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company offers synthetic crude oil (SCO), light and medium crude oil, bitumen (thermal oi...
How the Company Makes Money
CNQ makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into wholesale markets under market-based pricing. Its main revenue stream is liquids (crude oil, bitumen, and upgraded/synthetic crude) sold at prices linked to North American a...
Canadian Natural Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: multiple production and liquids records, significant reserve additions with low FD&A costs, robust adjusted earnings and funds flow, disciplined capital guidance (reduced 2026 capex) and an enhanced shareholder return policy. Key negatives were the deferral of the large Jackpine expansion due to regulatory uncertainty, a large non-cash accounting gain inflating reported net earnings for the quarter, and ongoing macro and gas market volatility. On balance, the positive operational and financial achievements, plus clearer pathways for accelerated shareholder returns, outweigh the highlighted risks and one-off accounting effects.Positive Updates
Record Annual Production and Strong Year-over-Year Growth
Total 2025 production reached a record 1,571,000 BOE/day, a 15% increase (+~207,000 BOE/day) versus 2024, driven by organic growth and accretive acquisitions.
Negative Updates
Deferral of Jackpine Mine Expansion (~$8.25B)
FEED capital for the ~ $8.25 billion Jackpine Mine expansion at Albian was deferred due to lack of finalization of government regulatory policies (carbon pricing and methane) and unresolved egress issues, creating uncertainty and delaying a major long-term growth investment.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Production and Strong Year-over-Year Growth
Total 2025 production reached a record 1,571,000 BOE/day, a 15% increase (+~207,000 BOE/day) versus 2024, driven by organic growth and accretive acquisitions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance, raising the midpoint of production by 20,000 BOE/d to a range of 1,615,000–1,665,000 BOE/d and cutting 2026 capital/operating forecast by $310 million to about $6.0 billion; they deferred FEED on the ~$8.25 billion Jackpine mine expansion while progressing Pike 2 (70,000 bbl/d SAGD regulatory approval) and Jackfish brownfield FEED (30,000 bbl/d), with Pike 1 currently ~27,000 bbl/d (SOR ~1.8) and a second pad due in Q2. The board approved an ~6% dividend increase to an annualized $0.52/share and, effective Jan 1, 2026, reset free‑cash‑flow allocation net‑debt triggers (below $16B, up target to 75% of FCF from $15B; at $13B, target 100% of FCF from $12B); year‑end 2025 metrics referenced include net debt ≈ $16B, debt/EBITDA 0.9x, debt/book capital 26% and liquidity > $6.3B.Canadian Natural Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 38.76B | 41.51B | 40.84B | 49.53B | 32.85B |
| Gross Profit | 9.02B | 10.90B | 11.77B | 16.26B | 10.58B |
| EBITDA | 17.99B | 15.41B | 17.27B | 21.73B | 16.38B |
| Net Income | 10.82B | 6.11B | 8.23B | 10.94B | 7.66B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 91.83B | 85.36B | 75.95B | 76.14B | 76.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 673.00M | 131.00M | 1.40B | 1.41B | 1.05B |
| Total Debt | 19.72B | 20.28B | 12.35B | 12.98B | 16.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 47.46B | 45.89B | 36.12B | 37.97B | 39.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 44.37B | 39.47B | 39.83B | 38.17B | 36.95B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.43B | 8.00B | 7.44B | 14.29B | 9.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.11B | 13.39B | 12.35B | 19.39B | 14.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.69B | -14.10B | -4.86B | -4.99B | -3.70B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.88B | -37.00M | -7.54B | -14.23B | -10.21B |
Canadian Natural Technical Analysis
Neutral
68.23
Price Trends
60.13
Positive
52.92
Positive
47.57
Positive
Market Momentum
1.77
Positive
48.56
Neutral
43.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CNQ, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 68.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.85, above the 50-day MA of 60.13, and above the 200-day MA of 47.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:CNQ.
Canadian Natural Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$133.75B | 8.98 | 25.98% | 5.23% | 8.06% | -10.64% | |
76 Outperform | C$7.42B | 30.68 | 7.90% | 3.76% | -1.59% | 0.09% | |
74 Outperform | C$17.73B | 11.60 | 10.14% | 6.33% | 36.36% | -19.92% | |
71 Outperform | C$14.96B | 11.74 | 15.52% | 2.95% | 15.61% | 12.15% | |
70 Outperform | C$8.57B | -15.31 | 15.77% | 2.99% | -11.41% | 40.81% | |
69 Neutral | C$24.00B | 89.45 | 8.69% | 4.79% | 8.97% | -21.15% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:CNQ
Canadian Natural
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Canadian Natural Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Canadian Natural Expands Share Buybacks Under New TSX-Approved Program
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
Canadian Natural Resources Limited has received Toronto Stock Exchange approval to launch a new normal course issuer bid allowing it to buy back and cancel up to 182,396,564 common shares, or 10% of its public float, between March 13, 2026 and Mar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.