Canadian Natural Resources (TSE:CNQ)
NYSE:CNQ
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Canadian Natural
(NYSE:CNQ)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$75.00
â–²(27.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong margins, returns, and self-funded cash generation), supported by a constructive earnings call with improved 2026 outlook and shareholder-return policy. These positives are tempered by weaker near-term technical momentum and valuation constraints (higher P/E for a cyclical producer), alongside recent revenue softness and a pullback in free cash flow.
Positive Factors
Self-funded cash generation & shareholder returns
Sustained, large adjusted funds flow and material shareholder returns demonstrate the company's ability to self-fund capex, dividends and buybacks across cycles. This long-run cash generation capacity supports capital discipline, reduces reliance on external financing and underpins durable shareholder policies.
Negative Factors
Regulatory/Egress risk delaying major growth
Deferral of a multi-billion-dollar expansion due to regulatory and egress uncertainty erodes planned long-term growth optionality. Prolonged delays increase project execution risk, push out future production and returns, and highlight sensitivity to policy and infrastructure bottlenecks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Self-funded cash generation & shareholder returns
Sustained, large adjusted funds flow and material shareholder returns demonstrate the company's ability to self-fund capex, dividends and buybacks across cycles. This long-run cash generation capacity supports capital discipline, reduces reliance on external financing and underpins durable shareholder policies.
Read all positive factors
Canadian Natural (CNQ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$137.84B
Dividend Yield5.23%
Average Volume (3M)12.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.2
Beta (1Y)0.31
Revenue Growth0.74%
EPS Growth29.91%
CountryCA
Employees10,640
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.66
Shares Outstanding2,085,972,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,680,301
30 Day Avg. Volume12,022,940
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)2.51
P/FCF Ratio11.53
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$69.35Price Target Upside17.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)6.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$45.25B
Canadian Natural Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canadian Natural Resources Limited acquires, explores for, develops, produces, markets, and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company offers synthetic crude oil (SCO), light and medium crude oil, bitumen (thermal oi...
How the Company Makes Money
CNQ makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into wholesale markets under market-based pricing. Its main revenue stream is liquids (crude oil, bitumen, and upgraded/synthetic crude) sold at prices linked to North American a...
Canadian Natural Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: multiple production and liquids records, significant reserve additions with low FD&A costs, robust adjusted earnings and funds flow, disciplined capital guidance (reduced 2026 capex) and an enhanced shareholder return policy. Key negatives were the deferral of the large Jackpine expansion due to regulatory uncertainty, a large non-cash accounting gain inflating reported net earnings for the quarter, and ongoing macro and gas market volatility. On balance, the positive operational and financial achievements, plus clearer pathways for accelerated shareholder returns, outweigh the highlighted risks and one-off accounting effects.Positive Updates
Record Annual Production and Strong Year-over-Year Growth
Total 2025 production reached a record 1,571,000 BOE/day, a 15% increase (+~207,000 BOE/day) versus 2024, driven by organic growth and accretive acquisitions.
Negative Updates
Deferral of Jackpine Mine Expansion (~$8.25B)
FEED capital for the ~ $8.25 billion Jackpine Mine expansion at Albian was deferred due to lack of finalization of government regulatory policies (carbon pricing and methane) and unresolved egress issues, creating uncertainty and delaying a major long-term growth investment.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Production and Strong Year-over-Year Growth
Total 2025 production reached a record 1,571,000 BOE/day, a 15% increase (+~207,000 BOE/day) versus 2024, driven by organic growth and accretive acquisitions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance, raising the midpoint of production by 20,000 BOE/d to a range of 1,615,000–1,665,000 BOE/d and cutting 2026 capital/operating forecast by $310 million to about $6.0 billion; they deferred FEED on the ~$8.25 billion Jackpine mine expansion while progressing Pike 2 (70,000 bbl/d SAGD regulatory approval) and Jackfish brownfield FEED (30,000 bbl/d), with Pike 1 currently ~27,000 bbl/d (SOR ~1.8) and a second pad due in Q2. The board approved an ~6% dividend increase to an annualized $0.52/share and, effective Jan 1, 2026, reset free‑cash‑flow allocation net‑debt triggers (below $16B, up target to 75% of FCF from $15B; at $13B, target 100% of FCF from $12B); year‑end 2025 metrics referenced include net debt ≈ $16B, debt/EBITDA 0.9x, debt/book capital 26% and liquidity > $6.3B.Canadian Natural Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 39.61B | 38.76B | 41.51B | 40.84B | 49.53B | 32.85B |
| Gross Profit | 12.42B | 9.02B | 10.90B | 11.77B | 16.26B | 10.58B |
| EBITDA | 17.78B | 17.99B | 15.41B | 17.27B | 21.73B | 16.38B |
| Net Income | 9.71B | 10.82B | 6.11B | 8.23B | 10.94B | 7.66B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 94.05B | 91.83B | 85.36B | 75.95B | 76.14B | 76.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 808.00M | 673.00M | 131.00M | 1.40B | 1.41B | 1.05B |
| Total Debt | 20.02B | 19.72B | 20.28B | 12.35B | 12.98B | 16.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 49.41B | 47.46B | 45.89B | 36.12B | 37.97B | 39.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 44.64B | 44.37B | 39.47B | 39.83B | 38.17B | 36.95B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.52B | 8.43B | 8.00B | 7.44B | 14.29B | 9.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.10B | 15.11B | 13.39B | 12.35B | 19.39B | 14.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.32B | -6.69B | -14.10B | -4.86B | -4.99B | -3.70B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.11B | -7.88B | -37.00M | -7.54B | -14.23B | -10.21B |
Canadian Natural Technical Analysis
Positive
58.81
Price Trends
64.53
Positive
57.85
Positive
50.53
Positive
Market Momentum
0.65
Negative
63.62
Neutral
96.59
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CNQ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.35, below the 50-day MA of 64.53, and above the 200-day MA of 50.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.59 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CNQ.
Canadian Natural Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | C$20.32B | 213.66 | 7.70% | 6.33% | 80.64% | -50.20% | |
75 Outperform | C$25.99B | 9.80 | 4.40% | 4.79% | 7.06% | -45.27% | |
73 Outperform | C$8.06B | 33.57 | 7.89% | 3.76% | -6.33% | -8.64% | |
73 Outperform | C$17.60B | 7.04 | 17.43% | 2.95% | 17.91% | 11.40% | |
70 Outperform | C$137.84B | 26.23 | 22.74% | 5.23% | 0.74% | 29.91% | |
70 Outperform | C$10.46B | 57.81 | 13.89% | 2.99% | -24.78% | 5.03% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:CNQ
Canadian Natural
67.11
26.51
65.29%
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Canadian Natural Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Canadian Natural Expands Share Buybacks Under New TSX-Approved Program
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
Canadian Natural Resources Limited has received Toronto Stock Exchange approval to launch a new normal course issuer bid allowing it to buy back and cancel up to 182,396,564 common shares, or 10% of its public float, between March 13, 2026 and Mar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.