Suncor Energy (TSE:SU)
NYSE:SU
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Suncor Energy
(NYSE:SU)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$99.00
▲(18.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (healthy margins, improving leverage, strong free cash flow) and a very constructive earnings call emphasizing operational execution, capital discipline, and elevated shareholder returns. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~13 with a ~2.7% dividend), while the main offset is mixed near-term technicals despite a positive longer-term trend.
Positive Factors
Integrated upstream-to-downstream model
Suncor's vertical integration captures value at multiple stages — upstream production, refining and retail — which cushions margins through commodity cycles. This durable structure helps stabilize cash flows, optimize feedstock use, and sustain margins over a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Negative Factors
Commodity-price sensitivity
Despite improvements, Suncor's earnings and cash metrics remain materially exposed to oil-price moves. Large or prolonged commodity declines will compress AFFO and free cash flow, constraining capital allocation choices and operational flexibility over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated upstream-to-downstream model
Suncor's vertical integration captures value at multiple stages — upstream production, refining and retail — which cushions margins through commodity cycles. This durable structure helps stabilize cash flows, optimize feedstock use, and sustain margins over a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Suncor Energy (SU) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$107.14B
Dividend Yield3.91%
Average Volume (3M)4.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.0
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth0.86%
EPS Growth8.90%
CountryCA
Employees15,010
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.27
Shares Outstanding1,186,910,900
10 Day Avg. Volume6,048,641
30 Day Avg. Volume4,753,788
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.56
Price to Book (P/B)1.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.52
P/FCF Ratio10.72
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$102.18Price Target Upside22.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)8.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$58.39B
Suncor Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company. The company primarily focuses on developing petroleum resource basins in Canada's Athabasca oil sands; explores, acquires, develops, produces, transports, refines, and markets crude oil ...
How the Company Makes Money
Suncor makes money primarily through an integrated upstream-to-downstream model that captures value across crude oil production, refining, and fuel marketing. (1) Upstream oil production: The company sells produced crude oil into market-linked pri...
Suncor Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized record operational and safety performance, strong organic production and throughput growth, significant capital discipline, a materially strengthened balance sheet, and robust shareholder returns (large buybacks and rising dividends). Management repeatedly highlighted resilience to lower oil prices and multiple high-ROI operational improvements. The lowlights were largely situational and manageable — commodity-price effects on cash metrics, working-capital seasonality, weather risk, and the need to formalize internal capacity gains externally. Overall, the positive operational and financial advancements materially outweigh the manageable risks.Positive Updates
Record Safety Performance
2025 was the safest year in company history with injuries and incidents down 70% versus 2022 over a 3-year period; improvements in both personnel and process safety.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price Headwinds Reduced Cash Metrics
WTI decline of ~15% YoY produced an AFFO decline of 8% and free funds flow decline of 6% — showing sensitivity of cash metrics to oil price even with improved resiliency.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Safety Performance
2025 was the safest year in company history with injuries and incidents down 70% versus 2022 over a 3-year period; improvements in both personnel and process safety.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated disciplined capital and shareholder-return guidance: buybacks will continue at $275M/month (a 10% increase versus 2025 monthly average) after >$3B repurchased in 2025 (163M shares, >12% of float, avg ~$50), dividends and buybacks are paid “first,” and CapEx is being sustained at roughly $5.7–6.0B (2025 CapEx $5.66B, down $510M vs 2024 and $540M below prior guidance) with OS&G ~$13.2B; they target a WTI breakeven in the low $40s (>$10/bbl reduction achieved in 2 years), closed the year with net debt of $6.3B (lowest since 2014, <1x cash flow at $50/bbl) and $5.2B of committed credit, and pointed to strong operating baselines (Q4 upstream 909kbd / FY 860kbd; upgrader utilization 106% Q4, 99% FY; refining throughput 504kbd Q4 / FY 480kbd; refining utilization 108% Q4, 103% FY; product sales 640kbd Q4 / FY 623kbd) while promising a detailed 3‑ and 15‑year value plan on March 31.Suncor Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 52.01B | 48.91B | 50.69B | 49.09B | 58.34B | 39.13B |
| Gross Profit | 21.25B | 21.24B | 19.85B | 19.54B | 24.83B | 15.28B |
| EBITDA | 16.74B | 16.18B | 16.40B | 18.33B | 22.28B | 12.63B |
| Net Income | 6.33B | 5.92B | 6.02B | 8.29B | 9.08B | 4.12B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 92.83B | 89.91B | 89.78B | 88.54B | 84.62B | 83.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.27B | 3.65B | 3.48B | 1.73B | 1.98B | 2.21B |
| Total Debt | 14.81B | 18.38B | 14.69B | 15.80B | 16.03B | 18.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 47.05B | 44.79B | 45.27B | 45.26B | 45.25B | 47.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 45.78B | 45.12B | 44.51B | 43.28B | 39.37B | 36.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.23B | 6.92B | 9.48B | 6.52B | 10.56B | 7.21B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 13.06B | 12.78B | 15.96B | 12.34B | 15.68B | 11.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.97B | -6.02B | -6.47B | -6.51B | -4.79B | -3.98B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.50B | -6.47B | -7.88B | -5.99B | -11.23B | -7.46B |
Suncor Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
83.69
Price Trends
89.14
Positive
80.26
Positive
68.58
Positive
Market Momentum
1.53
Negative
56.47
Neutral
65.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 83.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.21, below the 50-day MA of 89.14, and above the 200-day MA of 68.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SU.
Suncor Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$74.92B | 11.02 | 15.23% | 3.40% | -10.01% | 67.09% | |
76 Outperform | C$107.14B | 13.02 | 14.01% | 3.91% | 0.86% | 8.90% | |
73 Outperform | C$39.37B | 18.16 | 9.98% | 5.44% | -5.92% | -12.92% | |
71 Outperform | C$86.39B | 23.48 | 13.43% | 2.45% | -7.49% | -37.07% | |
71 Outperform | C$101.07B | 24.46 | 12.53% | 4.41% | 1.37% | -24.17% | |
70 Outperform | C$135.17B | 26.23 | 22.74% | 5.23% | 0.74% | 29.91% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:SU
Suncor Energy
90.56
43.08
90.74%
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Suncor Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Suncor to Outline Strategy at 2026 Investor Day
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
Suncor Energy announced it will hold its 2026 Investor Day on March 31, 2026, beginning at 7:30 a.m. MT, with a live webcast available to investors and other stakeholders. During the event, the executive leadership team plans to outline the compan...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.