Suncor Energy (SU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $63.94B
• Dividend Yield: 5.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.27M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: 2.16%
• EPS Growth: -20.22%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 15,010
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 1.31
• Shares Outstanding: 1,227,580,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,262,723
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,268,666
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $59.96
• Price Target Upside: 15.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: C$64.00 ▲(23.65%Upside)

Suncor Energy scores highly due to strong financial performance and an impressive earnings call highlighting record production and strategic achievements. Technical analysis shows bullish momentum, though caution is advised due to overbought signals. Valuation metrics add to the attractiveness, with a reasonable P/E ratio and attractive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Suncor's management anticipates achieving the WTI breakeven reduction target of US$10/bbl by the end of 2025, approximately a year ahead of schedule.

Production and Utilization

In upstream, initiatives to debottleneck ops & enhance yields have resulted in record production & utilization rates.

Shareholder Returns

Suncor Energy returned approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in the first quarter.

Negative Factors

Net Debt Increase

The company's net debt increased by approximately $0.7 billion compared to the previous quarter.

Potential Tariffs

The possibility of US oil or refined product tariffs on Canada are a significant negative risk going forward.

Valuation Concerns

Few catalysts are expected, and Suncor no longer trades at a material EV/EBITDA discount to Canadian oil peers.

Suncor Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Suncor Energy Inc. is a leading integrated energy company headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The company operates primarily in the oil sands sector, with additional activities in exploration, production, refining, and marketing. Suncor is renowned for its oil sands operations in the Athabasca region of Canada, where it extracts and processes bitumen into synthetic crude oil and other petroleum products. The company also engages in offshore oil and gas production, operates refineries in Canada and the U.S., and markets petroleum and petrochemical products through its Petro-Canada retail network.

How the Company Makes Money

Suncor Energy generates revenue through a diversified model centered around its integrated operations. The primary revenue stream comes from the extraction and processing of oil sands in Alberta, where the company produces bitumen, which is then upgraded to synthetic crude oil. Suncor also earns income from conventional and offshore oil and gas production activities. In addition, Suncor owns and operates several refineries that convert crude oil into various refined products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. These products are distributed and sold through Suncor's extensive Petro-Canada retail network, which serves as an additional significant revenue source. Strategic partnerships and investments in renewable energy projects, as well as cost management and efficiency improvements, further contribute to Suncor's earnings.

Suncor Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Suncor Energy's financial performance is strong, with excellent profitability and cash flow metrics. The company shows robust EBIT and EBITDA margins, solid cash flow management, and a stable balance sheet, though revenue growth challenges need attention.

Income Statement

Suncor Energy's income statement shows strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 39.44% and net profit margin of 11.33%. However, revenue has seen a decline of 2% from the previous year, indicating a potential challenge in top-line growth. Despite this, the company maintains robust EBIT and EBITDA margins of 16.82% and 30.15% respectively, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, suggesting moderate leverage. Suncor's ROE stands at 13.6%, indicating efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 49.98%, showing a balanced asset structure. The company's financial stability is noteworthy, though maintaining this balance while addressing revenue growth will be crucial.

Cash Flow

Suncor Energy demonstrates strong cash flow management with a free cash flow of $9.01 billion TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.52, indicating effective conversion of earnings to cash. While free cash flow growth has slowed, the company still shows a solid free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.48, highlighting its ability to generate cash after capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	53.78B	54.88B	49.09B	58.34B	39.13B	24.66B
Gross Profit	21.22B	22.38B	19.54B	28.77B	19.49B	6.02B
EBITDA	16.22B	16.40B	18.33B	22.28B	12.63B	2.55B
Net Income	6.09B	6.02B	8.29B	9.08B	4.12B	-4.32B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	89.70B	89.78B	88.54B	84.62B	83.74B	84.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.77B	3.48B	1.73B	1.98B	2.21B	1.89B
Total Debt	14.79B	14.69B	15.80B	15.62B	18.35B	21.70B
Total Liabilities	44.86B	45.27B	45.26B	45.25B	47.13B	48.86B
Stockholders Equity	44.83B	44.51B	43.28B	39.37B	36.61B	35.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.01B	9.48B	6.52B	10.56B	7.21B	-1.25B
Operating Cash Flow	15.33B	15.96B	12.34B	15.68B	11.76B	2.67B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.39B	-6.47B	-6.51B	-4.79B	-3.98B	-4.52B
Financing Cash Flow	-8.75B	-7.88B	-5.99B	-11.23B	-7.46B	1.79B

Suncor Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 51.76
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SU, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 51.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.42, above the 50-day MA of 50.04, and above the 200-day MA of 51.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.96 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:SU.

Suncor Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CNQ	83 Outperform	$90.09B	12.01	18.99%	5.46%	7.78%	4.75%
SU	81 Outperform	$63.94B	10.79	13.74%	5.99%	2.16%	-20.22%
IMO	81 Outperform	C$55.94B	11.78	20.61%	3.59%	1.26%	8.70%
CVE	76 Outperform	$33.92B	12.41	9.50%	4.28%	1.57%	-38.04%
PPL	75 Outperform	C$29.26B	16.42	11.55%	5.64%	-5.42%	-1.70%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$14.70B	9.57	6.41%	5.37%	4.12%	-71.24%
TRP	66 Neutral	$67.05B	15.33	15.89%	5.27%	0.72%	60.40%

Suncor Energy Corporate Events

Suncor Energy Achieves Record First-Quarter Results in 2025

Suncor Energy reported record-breaking first-quarter results for 2025, generating over $3 billion in adjusted funds from operations and $1.9 billion in free funds flow. The company achieved its highest-ever first-quarter upstream production and refining throughput, with exceptional asset utilization rates. Suncor returned $1.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, demonstrating its strong financial performance and commitment to delivering shareholder value despite a volatile business environment.

Suncor Energy Announces Results from Annual General Meeting

Suncor Energy held its Annual General Meeting in Calgary, where shareholders elected eleven board members, appointed KPMG LLP as auditors, and approved the management’s approach to executive compensation. A proposal for a report on the costs of achieving Net Zero by 2050 was denied. The meeting saw approximately 70.29% of outstanding shares represented, indicating strong shareholder engagement.

Suncor Energy Declares Quarterly Dividend Amidst Strategic Transition

Suncor Energy has announced a quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share, payable on June 25, 2025, to shareholders of record as of June 4, 2025. This decision reflects Suncor’s ongoing commitment to providing shareholder value while continuing to advance its strategy of transitioning to a lower-emissions future, which may positively impact its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

Suncor Energy to Announce Q1 2025 Results and Host Annual Meeting

Suncor Energy has announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 6, 2025, followed by a webcast review on May 7, 2025. The company will also hold its Annual General Meeting online on May 6, 2025. These events are significant for stakeholders as they provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.