Suncor Energy (SU) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$91.01B
• Dividend Yield: 3.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -3.08%
• EPS Growth: -31.48%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 15,010
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated
• EPS (TTM): 1.10
• Shares Outstanding: 1,189,941,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,408,624
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,389,160
• PEG Ratio: 4.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$73.36
• Price Target Upside: -3.76% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: C$83.00 ▲(8.88% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

The score is driven by solid financial performance (durable profitability and strong operating cash generation) and a constructive technical backdrop (clear uptrend with positive momentum). The earnings call adds support via raised guidance, record operations, and continued dividends/buybacks, while valuation is reasonable but not a major upside catalyst. Key offsets are 2025 free-cash-flow softness versus 2024, higher 2025 debt, and an overbought RSI that elevates near-term pullback risk.

Positive Factors

Integrated, diversified business model

Suncor's integrated mix of oil sands, conventional E&P, refining/marketing and renewable initiatives creates multiple, complementary cash streams. This structural diversity cushions commodity swings, supports margin capture across the value chain, and sustains funding for operations and investments over months.

Strong cash generation & shareholder returns

Consistent operating cash flow well above net income and elevated AFFO/FFO levels provide durable internal funding. Positive free-funds-flow and explicit buybacks/dividend increases show cash allocation discipline, enabling returns while supporting capex without immediate reliance on external financing.

Operational execution and cost control

Record upstream output and refinery throughput plus flat operating & maintenance spend reflect improving asset utilization and lower unit costs. Better turnaround execution and cost containment create a structurally higher operating margin baseline and support raised guidance sustainably.

Negative Factors

Commodity price sensitivity

Suncor remains highly exposed to oil price moves; lower WTI or extended price weakness directly compresses cash flow and margins. That cyclicality creates durable earnings volatility and can undermine free cash flow and shareholder returns during multi-quarter commodity soft patches.

Rising debt and FCF softness

A step-up in total debt in 2025 combined with a decline and volatility in free cash flow reduces balance-sheet flexibility. That limits buffer for downturns, constrains optionality on M&A or capex, and raises refinancing and solvency risk if commodity headwinds persist.

Cooling revenue and earnings versus peak

Revenue and earnings remain below 2022–23 highs, indicating reliance on cyclical price/volume recovery to restore growth. Without sustained higher prices or clear, durable production-led growth, margins and ROE may stay constrained, limiting structural earnings upside over coming months.

Suncor Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Suncor Energy Inc. operates as an integrated energy company. The company primarily focuses on developing petroleum resource basins in Canada's Athabasca oil sands; explores, acquires, develops, produces, transports, refines, and markets crude oil in Canada and internationally; markets petroleum and petrochemical products under the Petro-Canada name primarily in Canada. It operates through Oil Sands; Exploration and Production; Refining and Marketing; and Corporate and Eliminations segments. The Oil Sands segment recovers bitumen from mining and in situ operations, and upgrades it into refinery feedstock and diesel fuel, or blends the bitumen with diluent for direct sale to market. The Exploration and Production segment is involved in offshore operations off the east coast of Canada and in the North Sea; and operating onshore assets in Libya and Syria. The Refining and Marketing segment refines crude oil and intermediate feedstock into various petroleum and petrochemical products; and markets refined petroleum products to retail, commercial, and industrial customers through its other retail sellers. The Corporate and Eliminations segment operates four wind farms in Ontario and Western Canada. The company also markets and trades in crude oil, natural gas, byproducts, refined products, and power. The company was formerly known as Suncor Inc. and changed its name to Suncor Energy Inc. in April 1997. Suncor Energy Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Suncor Energy generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products. The Oil Sands segment, which includes extraction and production of bitumen, is a significant revenue driver, as the company extracts heavy crude oil from the oil sands in Alberta. The Exploration and Production segment contributes further by exploring and producing conventional oil and gas outside of the oil sands. Suncor's Refining and Marketing segment refines crude oil into various fuels and sells them through its extensive retail network and commercial channels, providing a steady income stream. Additionally, Suncor has entered partnerships and joint ventures, particularly in its oil sands operations, to share costs and increase production efficiency, further enhancing its revenue potential. The company is also investing in renewable energy, which may contribute to future earnings as the global energy landscape shifts.

Suncor Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are solid: sustained profitability post-2020, healthy ROE (~13% in 2024–2025), and operating cash flow consistently above net income. Offsetting this are cooling revenue/earnings versus the 2022–2023 peak, a notable free-cash-flow decline in 2025, and higher total debt in 2025 that reduces flexibility if the cycle weakens.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid and resilient for the sector, with strong gross profit and operating profitability in 2021–2025 and net margins holding around ~12% in 2024–2025. However, growth has cooled: revenue slipped in 2025 after a flat-to-down pattern vs. 2022’s peak, and earnings are below the 2022–2023 highs. The 2020 loss underscores commodity-cycle sensitivity, even though results since then have been consistently profitable.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.33–0.41 range recently (improved from 2020), and equity has steadily built over time. Returns on equity remain healthy (~13% in 2024–2025), though down from the stronger 2022–2023 levels. A watch item is the step-up in total debt in 2025 versus 2024, which reduces balance-sheet flexibility if the cycle weakens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains strong, with operating cash flow consistently exceeding net income in 2021–2025, supporting funding capacity. Free cash flow is positive across 2021–2025, but it declined in 2025 versus 2024 and has been somewhat choppy year-to-year, reflecting a more volatile cash profile typical of integrated oil & gas. Overall cash conversion is decent, though not exceptional given free cash flow is only about ~54–59% of net income in 2024–2025.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	48.91B	50.69B	49.09B	58.34B	39.13B
Gross Profit	21.24B	19.85B	19.54B	24.83B	15.28B
EBITDA	16.18B	16.40B	18.33B	22.28B	12.63B
Net Income	5.92B	6.02B	8.29B	9.08B	4.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	89.91B	89.78B	88.54B	84.62B	83.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.65B	3.48B	1.73B	1.98B	2.21B
Total Debt	18.38B	14.69B	15.80B	16.03B	18.78B
Total Liabilities	44.79B	45.27B	45.26B	45.25B	47.13B
Stockholders Equity	45.12B	44.51B	43.28B	39.37B	36.61B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.92B	9.48B	6.52B	10.56B	7.21B
Operating Cash Flow	12.78B	15.96B	12.34B	15.68B	11.76B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.02B	-6.47B	-6.51B	-4.79B	-3.98B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.47B	-7.88B	-5.99B	-11.23B	-7.46B

Suncor Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 76.23
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.51, above the 50-day MA of 67.18, and above the 200-day MA of 57.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SU.

Suncor Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CNQ	81 Outperform	C$118.92B	18.00	16.17%	5.23%	8.06%	-10.64%
SU	77 Outperform	C$91.01B	15.75	13.25%	3.91%	-3.08%	-31.48%
IMO	75 Outperform	C$81.85B	25.41	14.30%	2.45%	-6.18%	-14.06%
CVE	70 Outperform	C$57.56B	14.07	12.88%	3.40%	-9.17%	-12.97%
PPL	70 Outperform	$34.24B	21.01	10.22%	5.44%	2.81%	-14.92%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
TRP	65 Neutral	$87.94B	25.84	13.64%	4.41%	-3.98%	-33.45%

Suncor Energy Corporate Events

Suncor Energy Board Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.60 per Share

Suncor Energy’s board has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.60 per common share, payable on March 25, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 4, 2026, underscoring the company’s continued emphasis on returning capital to investors. The move signals confidence in Suncor’s cash flow generation from its integrated operations and may be viewed as a supportive development for income-focused shareholders, reinforcing the company’s position as a stable payer within the Canadian energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SU) stock is a Buy with a C$80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Suncor Energy stock, see the TSE:SU Stock Forecast page.

Suncor posts record 2025 results, hits key targets a year early

Suncor Energy reported record fourth-quarter 2025 results, highlighted by adjusted funds from operations of $3.2 billion, free funds flow of $1.7 billion and net earnings of $1.48 billion, alongside record upstream production of 909,000 barrels per day and record refining throughput of 504,000 barrels per day, with asset utilization exceeding 100% at both upgraders and refineries. For full-year 2025, Suncor delivered record upstream production of 860,000 barrels per day, record refining throughput of 480,000 barrels per day, and record refined product sales of 623,000 barrels per day, while generating $12.8 billion in adjusted funds from operations and $6.9 billion in free funds flow, returning approximately $5.8 billion to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends and achieving its 2024 Investor Day financial and operational targets a year ahead of schedule, including a net debt reduction to $8 billion, which underscores stronger cash generation, lower breakeven levels and an enhanced capacity to deliver shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SU) stock is a Buy with a C$80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Suncor Energy stock, see the TSE:SU Stock Forecast page.

Suncor Energy Sets February Dates for Q4 2025 Results and Investor Webcast

Suncor Energy will publish its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on February 3, 2026, after market close, and host a webcast with management remarks and an analyst Q&A the following morning, offering investors and analysts a detailed update on the company’s recent performance. The scheduled disclosure and investor event underscore Suncor’s efforts to maintain transparency with the market and provide stakeholders with visibility into how its integrated operations and transition-focused investments are progressing amid evolving energy and capital-market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SU) stock is a Buy with a C$76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Suncor Energy stock, see the TSE:SU Stock Forecast page.

Suncor Delivers Investor Targets a Year Early on Record 2025 Performance

Suncor Energy reported a record-breaking 2025, achieving its 2024 Investor Day performance targets a full year ahead of plan, underpinned by its safest year on record, higher upstream production, and best-ever utilization across both its upgraders and refineries. The company delivered significant operational outperformance versus prior guidance, including full-year upstream production of 860,000 barrels per day and refining utilization of 103%, while reducing its corporate WTI breakeven by US$10 per barrel, cutting annual capital expenditures to $5.7 billion, and lowering net debt to $8 billion. Management highlighted that these gains have strengthened Suncor’s balance sheet, enhanced resilience, and enabled the return of $11.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks over the past two years, positioning the company to outline its next phase of shareholder value creation at its March 2026 Investor Day.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SU) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Suncor Energy stock, see the TSE:SU Stock Forecast page.

Suncor Energy Unveils 2026 Corporate Guidance with Focus on Shareholder Returns

Suncor Energy has announced its 2026 corporate guidance, emphasizing its commitment to superior shareholder returns through increased share repurchases and operational excellence. The company projects significant growth in upstream production and refining utilization, surpassing previous targets, and plans strategic investments in high-value opportunities while maintaining capital discipline. This guidance reflects Suncor’s confidence in its operational performance and its strategy to deliver long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SU) stock is a Buy with a C$69.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Suncor Energy stock, see the TSE:SU Stock Forecast page.

Suncor Energy Announces $1 Billion Note Offering to Repay Debt

Suncor Energy announced a $1 billion offering of senior unsecured notes, split into two tranches with different maturity dates and interest rates. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing debt, potentially strengthening Suncor’s financial position and enhancing its ability to invest in future projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SU) stock is a Buy with a C$70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Suncor Energy stock, see the TSE:SU Stock Forecast page.

Suncor Energy Announces $1 Billion Note Offering to Repay Debt

Suncor Energy has announced a $1 billion offering of senior unsecured notes, split into two tranches with different maturity dates and interest rates. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing debt, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and offering flexibility in its capital management strategy. This move may enhance Suncor’s industry positioning by reducing financial liabilities and supporting its ongoing transition to a lower-emissions future.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SU) stock is a Buy with a C$70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Suncor Energy stock, see the TSE:SU Stock Forecast page.