Algoma Steel Group (TSE:ASTL)
TSX:ASTL
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Algoma Steel Group
(TSX:ASTL)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
C$6.00
▲(7.91% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:12/20/25
Algoma Steel Group's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and negative profit margins. While technical indicators show some bullish momentum, valuation concerns persist with a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call provided a balanced view with both challenges and positive developments, such as strong liquidity and progress on strategic projects.
Positive Factors
Strong Liquidity Position
A strong liquidity position provides Algoma Steel with the financial flexibility to navigate market challenges and invest in strategic projects, supporting long-term stability.
Negative Factors
Decline in Steel Revenue
Declining steel revenue indicates potential market share loss or pricing pressures, which could impact Algoma's ability to sustain growth and profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Liquidity Position
A strong liquidity position provides Algoma Steel with the financial flexibility to navigate market challenges and invest in strategic projects, supporting long-term stability.
Read all positive factors
Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$544.61M
Dividend Yield4.87%
Average Volume (3M)1.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.70
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees2,818
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.36
Shares Outstanding104,933,800
10 Day Avg. Volume1,435,079
30 Day Avg. Volume1,099,421
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio-6.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$7.35Price Target Upside32.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.60B
Algoma Steel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products primarily in North America. It provides flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for ...
How the Company Makes Money
Algoma Steel generates revenue primarily through the sale of its steel products, which are sold to various industries including automotive, construction, and energy. The company operates on a business model that includes both direct sales to large...
Algoma Steel Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: the company faces large, structural headwinds from a 50% U.S. tariff that materially depressed volumes, margins, and resulted in significant adjusted EBITDA losses and workforce reductions. Offsetting these negatives are meaningful strategic actions — a successful EAF ramp underway, substantial government-backed liquidity, a differentiated plate market position, a material MOU with Hanwha Ocean, and meaningful working capital improvements that eased near-term cash burn. While the transformation and strategic repositioning create a credible path to stability and long-term value, the magnitude of the financial losses and market disruption means challenges remain in the near term.Positive Updates
EAF Ramp-Up and Operational Progress
First electric-arc furnace (EAF) is running on a full 24-hour schedule with stable metallurgical quality and process control across plate and hot-rolled coil grades; second EAF remains on schedule. Cumulative project investment was C$920,000,000 as of 12/31/2025 with expected final aggregate cost of ~C$987,000,000 (implying ~C$67,000,000 remaining).
Negative Updates
Severe Tariff Impact and Structural Market Disruption
The 50% US Section 232 tariff fundamentally closed the U.S. market and created domestic oversupply; company absorbed C$225,000,000 in direct tariff cost for the full year, and Canadian transactional prices have traded up to ~40% below comparable U.S. levels across many categories.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
EAF Ramp-Up and Operational Progress
First electric-arc furnace (EAF) is running on a full 24-hour schedule with stable metallurgical quality and process control across plate and hot-rolled coil grades; second EAF remains on schedule. Cumulative project investment was C$920,000,000 as of 12/31/2025 with expected final aggregate cost of ~C$987,000,000 (implying ~C$67,000,000 remaining).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlighted a 2026 shipment target of roughly 1.0–1.2 million tonnes (with Q1 sequentially lower than Q4’s 378k tonnes) and a mix of about 50/50 plate and sheet, with plate production expected to rise sequentially through 2026; EAF ramp-up is on track (first EAF 24/7, second on schedule) with cumulative project spend of C$920 million as of 12/31/2025 and an expected final aggregate cost of ~C$987 million; liquidity headroom includes C$500 million of government-backed support, C$195 million available under the ABL and C$417 million available under the tariff loan facility; the company expects Q1 2026 pricing and cost improvement to produce adjusted EBITDA directionally better than Q4 2025 (Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss C$95.2M, margin -20.9%; FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss C$261.4M, margin -12.5%), while sustaining CapEx is expected to step down toward ~C$80M/year and continued working-capital/inventory reductions (inventories C$569M at year-end) should aid cash flow; additionally, strategic optionality includes a US$250M Hanwha MOU (US$200M potential capex contribution and up to US$50M of product purchases).Algoma Steel Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
35
Negative
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.09B | 2.45B | 2.80B | 2.78B | 3.81B | 1.79B |
| Gross Profit | -665.00M | -162.40M | 282.30M | 389.80M | 1.51B | 157.20M |
| EBITDA | -814.70M | -72.80M | 278.40M | 489.30M | 1.29B | 79.60M |
| Net Income | -984.90M | -222.67M | 105.20M | 298.50M | 857.70M | -76.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.12B | 3.19B | 2.68B | 2.46B | 2.69B | 1.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 77.60M | 267.00M | 97.90M | 247.40M | 915.30M | 21.20M |
| Total Debt | 916.90M | 659.60M | 146.10M | 122.30M | 96.20M | 629.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 0.00 | 1.68B | 1.17B | 993.40M | 1.11B | 1.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 491.10M | 1.51B | 1.50B | 1.46B | 1.58B | 173.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -361.20M | -362.70M | -195.50M | -156.20M | 1.10B | -63.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -63.10M | -62.60M | 294.60M | 177.30M | 1.26B | 8.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -282.61M | -272.20M | -490.10M | -333.50M | -165.70M | -72.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 93.42M | 483.70M | 44.70M | -569.60M | -198.70M | -167.40M |
Algoma Steel Group Technical Analysis
Negative
5.56
Price Trends
6.02
Negative
5.81
Negative
6.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.34
Positive
41.44
Neutral
30.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ASTL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.72, below the 50-day MA of 6.02, and below the 200-day MA of 6.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:ASTL.
Algoma Steel Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | C$1.81B | 19.01 | 16.92% | 6.37% | -10.99% | -43.30% | |
66 Neutral | C$311.90M | 5.90 | 14.25% | 7.35% | -28.86% | -48.20% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
51 Neutral | C$544.61M | -0.41 | -95.10% | 4.87% | ― | ― | |
48 Neutral | C$911.01M | -46.51 | -1.58% | 2.55% | 8.04% | -195.66% | |
47 Neutral | C$67.35M | -14.38 | -4.54% | 2.63% | -16.85% | -117.65% | |
44 Neutral | C$583.35M | -1.37 | -25.24% | ― | -3.63% | 31.61% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:ASTL
Algoma Steel Group
5.56
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-36.08%
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Algoma Steel Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Algoma Steel Secures $500 Million Government Financing for EAF Transition
Positive
Nov 21, 2025
Algoma Steel Group Inc. has completed a $500 million financing transaction with the Governments of Canada and Ontario, aimed at strengthening its balance sheet and providing financial flexibility for its Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) transition. This...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Algoma Steel Announces Leadership Transition with New CEO and CFO Appointments
Positive
Oct 29, 2025
Algoma Steel Group Inc. has announced a leadership transition as part of its succession planning. Current CFO Rajat Marwah will succeed Michael Garcia as CEO effective January 1, 2026, while Michael Moraca will be promoted to CFO. This transition ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Algoma Steel Group Faces Challenges Amidst Strategic Transition
Negative
Oct 29, 2025
Algoma Steel Group reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a significant net loss of $485.1 million, primarily due to a non-cash impairment loss and trade-related challenges, including U.S. tariffs. Despite these challenges...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.