Algoma Steel Group (TSE:ASTL)
TSX:ASTL
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Algoma Steel Group
(TSX:ASTL)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
C$6.50
▲(2.36% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
The score is held down primarily by sharply weakened financial performance (large losses, higher leverage, and cash burn). Earnings-call positives (liquidity runway, EAF ramp, inventory reductions, and the Hanwha MOU) partially offset near-term tariff-driven disruption and continued losses, while technicals are mixed-to-weak and valuation is supported mainly by the dividend yield despite a loss-driven negative P/E.
Positive Factors
EAF ramp-up
Completing the EAF conversion materially modernizes production, replacing blast-furnace reliance and enabling greater use of scrap and flexible feedstocks. With first EAF stable 24/7 and near-final capex, unit-cost structure and production flexibility should improve over months, supporting margins as volumes normalize.
Negative Factors
Severe profitability deterioration
A near-billion-dollar annual loss and collapsing margins have eroded earnings power and equity, weakening the firm's ability to self-finance investments. Persistent losses increase the time needed to restore profitability, heighten creditor scrutiny, and may force continued restructuring or asset-sale decisions to rebuild capital.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
EAF ramp-up
Completing the EAF conversion materially modernizes production, replacing blast-furnace reliance and enabling greater use of scrap and flexible feedstocks. With first EAF stable 24/7 and near-final capex, unit-cost structure and production flexibility should improve over months, supporting margins as volumes normalize.
Read all positive factors
Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$666.33M
Dividend Yield4.87%
Average Volume (3M)1.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.74
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees2,818
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.36
Shares Outstanding104,933,800
10 Day Avg. Volume1,435,079
30 Day Avg. Volume1,099,421
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio-1.56
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$7.85Price Target Upside23.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.57B
Algoma Steel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products primarily in North America. It provides flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for ...
How the Company Makes Money
Algoma Steel makes money primarily by producing steel and selling finished flat-rolled steel products to industrial customers and steel service centers. Its core revenue stream is the sale of steel under a mix of contract-based arrangements (often...
Algoma Steel Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: the company faces large, structural headwinds from a 50% U.S. tariff that materially depressed volumes, margins, and resulted in significant adjusted EBITDA losses and workforce reductions. Offsetting these negatives are meaningful strategic actions — a successful EAF ramp underway, substantial government-backed liquidity, a differentiated plate market position, a material MOU with Hanwha Ocean, and meaningful working capital improvements that eased near-term cash burn. While the transformation and strategic repositioning create a credible path to stability and long-term value, the magnitude of the financial losses and market disruption means challenges remain in the near term.Positive Updates
EAF Ramp-Up and Operational Progress
First electric-arc furnace (EAF) is running on a full 24-hour schedule with stable metallurgical quality and process control across plate and hot-rolled coil grades; second EAF remains on schedule. Cumulative project investment was C$920,000,000 as of 12/31/2025 with expected final aggregate cost of ~C$987,000,000 (implying ~C$67,000,000 remaining).
Negative Updates
Severe Tariff Impact and Structural Market Disruption
The 50% US Section 232 tariff fundamentally closed the U.S. market and created domestic oversupply; company absorbed C$225,000,000 in direct tariff cost for the full year, and Canadian transactional prices have traded up to ~40% below comparable U.S. levels across many categories.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
EAF Ramp-Up and Operational Progress
First electric-arc furnace (EAF) is running on a full 24-hour schedule with stable metallurgical quality and process control across plate and hot-rolled coil grades; second EAF remains on schedule. Cumulative project investment was C$920,000,000 as of 12/31/2025 with expected final aggregate cost of ~C$987,000,000 (implying ~C$67,000,000 remaining).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlighted a 2026 shipment target of roughly 1.0–1.2 million tonnes (with Q1 sequentially lower than Q4’s 378k tonnes) and a mix of about 50/50 plate and sheet, with plate production expected to rise sequentially through 2026; EAF ramp-up is on track (first EAF 24/7, second on schedule) with cumulative project spend of C$920 million as of 12/31/2025 and an expected final aggregate cost of ~C$987 million; liquidity headroom includes C$500 million of government-backed support, C$195 million available under the ABL and C$417 million available under the tariff loan facility; the company expects Q1 2026 pricing and cost improvement to produce adjusted EBITDA directionally better than Q4 2025 (Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss C$95.2M, margin -20.9%; FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss C$261.4M, margin -12.5%), while sustaining CapEx is expected to step down toward ~C$80M/year and continued working-capital/inventory reductions (inventories C$569M at year-end) should aid cash flow; additionally, strategic optionality includes a US$250M Hanwha MOU (US$200M potential capex contribution and up to US$50M of product purchases).Algoma Steel Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.09B | 2.45B | 2.80B | 2.78B | 3.81B |
| Gross Profit | -664.80M | -162.40M | 282.30M | 389.80M | 1.51B |
| EBITDA | -859.60M | -72.80M | 278.40M | 489.30M | 1.29B |
| Net Income | -984.90M | -222.67M | 105.20M | 298.50M | 857.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.12B | 3.19B | 2.68B | 2.46B | 2.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 77.50M | 267.00M | 97.90M | 247.40M | 915.30M |
| Total Debt | 862.00M | 659.60M | 146.10M | 122.30M | 96.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.62B | 1.68B | 1.17B | 993.40M | 1.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 491.10M | 1.51B | 1.50B | 1.46B | 1.58B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -394.60M | -362.70M | -195.50M | -156.20M | 1.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -66.10M | -62.60M | 294.60M | 177.30M | 1.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -312.30M | -272.20M | -490.10M | -333.50M | -165.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 200.80M | 483.70M | 44.70M | -569.60M | -198.70M |
Algoma Steel Group Technical Analysis
Positive
6.35
Price Trends
5.96
Positive
5.83
Positive
6.38
Negative
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
62.53
Neutral
89.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ASTL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.47, above the 50-day MA of 5.96, and below the 200-day MA of 6.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ASTL.
Algoma Steel Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | C$1.95B | 19.01 | 15.70% | 6.37% | -10.99% | -43.30% | |
66 Neutral | C$312.46M | 5.90 | 14.25% | 7.35% | -28.86% | -48.20% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
48 Neutral | C$666.33M | -0.62 | -95.10% | 4.87% | ― | ― | |
48 Neutral | C$908.52M | -46.51 | -2.55% | 2.55% | 8.04% | -195.66% | |
47 Neutral | C$69.66M | -14.38 | -4.54% | 2.63% | -16.85% | -117.65% | |
47 Neutral | C$675.43M | -1.35 | -25.24% | ― | -3.63% | 31.61% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:ASTL
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6.35
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-7.62%
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Algoma Steel Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Algoma Steel Swings to Deeper Loss as Tariffs Bite but Completes Shift to Electric Arc Furnaces
Negative
Mar 12, 2026
Algoma Steel reported sharply weaker fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results, with revenue and shipments down and losses widening amid the impact of 50% U.S. Section 232 tariffs that curtailed access to the American market and pressured domestic...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.