Algoma Steel Group (TSE:ASTL)
TSX:ASTL
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Algoma Steel Group
(TSX:ASTL)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
C$7.00
▲(7.69% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/13/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak recent financial performance (large losses, higher leverage, and negative operating/free cash flow). Technicals are moderately positive with price above key moving averages, and valuation is mixed (high yield but negative P/E). Earnings-call guidance and liquidity suggest a potential recovery path, but execution and near-term demand/tariff pressures keep risk elevated.
Positive Factors
EAF ramp and low‑carbon production
A functioning EAF platform is a durable structural advantage: lower carbon footprint, potential operating-cost and capex benefits versus legacy blast‑furnace routes, and access to customers prioritizing low‑carbon steel. Successful continuous operation underpins long‑term competitiveness and market access.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and equity erosion
Higher debt and shrunk equity reduce financial flexibility and increase downside risk in a cyclical industry. Elevated leverage raises interest and refinancing vulnerability, constrains strategic optionality, and makes the firm more sensitive to prolonged weak volumes or pricing shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
EAF ramp and low‑carbon production
A functioning EAF platform is a durable structural advantage: lower carbon footprint, potential operating-cost and capex benefits versus legacy blast‑furnace routes, and access to customers prioritizing low‑carbon steel. Successful continuous operation underpins long‑term competitiveness and market access.
Read all positive factors
Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$712.50M
Dividend Yield4.87%
Average Volume (3M)1.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.77
Revenue Growth-20.89%
EPS Growth-483.46%
CountryCA
Employees2,818
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-9.19
Shares Outstanding104,933,800
10 Day Avg. Volume1,435,079
30 Day Avg. Volume1,099,421
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.29
P/FCF Ratio-1.56
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$8.00Price Target Upside23.08% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.58B
Algoma Steel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products primarily in North America. It provides flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for ...
How the Company Makes Money
ASTL primarily makes money by producing and selling steel products, with revenue recognized from customer contracts based on volumes shipped and realized selling prices. Its key revenue streams are (1) sales of flat-rolled sheet steel (used in app...
Algoma Steel Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call conveyed a balanced message: meaningful operational progress (successful EAF ramp, record plate sales, improved per‑tonne realization and an $18M underlying EBITDA improvement) and solid liquidity provide a clear path toward stabilization. However, the quarter was a planned transitional trough with steep volume and revenue declines (shipments -52.4%, revenue -42.4%), a large capacity utilization charge ($90.2M), material tariff costs (CAD 27.4M) and ongoing market and legal uncertainties. Management expects capacity charges to be eliminated by Q4 and a path to breakeven, but near‑term volumes and pricing headwinds (coil oversupply, sheet weakness) present significant challenges.Positive Updates
EAF Ramp-Up and Operational Progress
Unit 1 electric arc furnace (EAF) and associated melt shop are performing as designed on a 24/7 schedule, producing low‑carbon steel and demonstrating stable metallurgical quality — establishing the operational foundation for Algoma's transition to a fully EAF-based platform.
Negative Updates
Significant Shipment and Revenue Declines
Shipments were approximately 224,000 net tonnes, down 52.4% versus Q1 2025. Steel revenue was $266.9 million, down 42.4% year‑over‑year, as volume declines more than offset improved pricing.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
EAF Ramp-Up and Operational Progress
Unit 1 electric arc furnace (EAF) and associated melt shop are performing as designed on a 24/7 schedule, producing low‑carbon steel and demonstrating stable metallurgical quality — establishing the operational foundation for Algoma's transition to a fully EAF-based platform.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that the Q1 CAD90.2M capacity‑utilization charge will trend down linearly over Q2–Q3 and be fully eliminated by Q4, with adjusted EBITDA moving from a Q1 loss of CAD28.7M (‑9.7% margin) toward breakeven by Q4; near‑term volumes are expected to be directionally lower in Q2 (sheet down, plate slightly up) after Q1 shipments of 224,000 net tonnes and record plate sales of 116,000 net tonnes. Key Q1 metrics cited include average net sales realization of CAD1,193/tonne (up 21% YoY), steel revenue CAD266.9M (down 42.4% YoY), cost per tonne CAD1,180 (excluding the CAD90M capacity charge), direct tariff costs CAD27.4M, a FX gain of CAD14.3M, and an underlying adjusted EBITDA improvement of CAD18M on an apples‑to‑apples basis; working capital released was >CAD100M. Liquidity and cash‑flow guidance: cash CAD65.3M, CAD195M undrawn revolver, CAD292M LETL availability (total ~CAD553M), CAD126M drawn under LETL in Q1, Q1 capex CAD20.4M (vs CAD127M a year ago), expect maintenance capex to run meaningfully below historical sustaining ~CAD120M pa, and anticipated cash benefits in 2026 of ~CAD200M in income‑tax refunds plus remaining insurance proceeds.Algoma Steel Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.09B | 2.45B | 2.80B | 2.78B | 3.81B |
| Gross Profit | -664.80M | -162.40M | 282.30M | 389.80M | 1.51B |
| EBITDA | -859.60M | -72.80M | 278.40M | 489.30M | 1.29B |
| Net Income | -984.90M | -222.67M | 105.20M | 298.50M | 857.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.12B | 3.19B | 2.68B | 2.46B | 2.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 77.50M | 267.00M | 97.90M | 247.40M | 915.30M |
| Total Debt | 862.00M | 659.60M | 146.10M | 122.30M | 96.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.62B | 1.68B | 1.17B | 993.40M | 1.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 491.10M | 1.51B | 1.50B | 1.46B | 1.58B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -394.60M | -362.70M | -195.50M | -156.20M | 1.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -66.10M | -62.60M | 294.60M | 177.30M | 1.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -312.30M | -272.20M | -490.10M | -333.50M | -165.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 200.80M | 483.70M | 44.70M | -569.60M | -198.70M |
Algoma Steel Group Technical Analysis
Positive
6.50
Price Trends
6.16
Positive
6.14
Positive
6.02
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
53.37
Neutral
59.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ASTL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.68, above the 50-day MA of 6.16, and above the 200-day MA of 6.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ASTL.
Algoma Steel Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$1.77B | 35.55 | 14.38% | 6.37% | -11.36% | -32.65% | |
63 Neutral | C$322.98M | 22.72 | 14.25% | 7.35% | -23.77% | 142.01% | |
62 Neutral | C$1.29B | -101.40 | -2.63% | 2.55% | 6.85% | 33.13% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | C$712.50M | -6.27 | -136.54% | 4.87% | -20.89% | -483.46% | |
49 Neutral | C$63.91M | -14.37 | -4.54% | 2.63% | -24.14% | -44.07% | |
47 Neutral | C$601.11M | -2.64 | -28.72% | ― | -7.89% | -26.09% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Algoma Steel Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Algoma Steel Swings to Deeper Loss as Tariffs Bite but Completes Shift to Electric Arc Furnaces
Negative
Mar 12, 2026
Algoma Steel reported sharply weaker fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results, with revenue and shipments down and losses widening amid the impact of 50% U.S. Section 232 tariffs that curtailed access to the American market and pressured domestic...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.