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Algoma Steel Group (TSE:ASTL)
TSX:ASTL
Earnings Data
Report Date
May 05, 2026After Close (Confirmed)
Period Ending
2026 (Q1)Consensus EPS Forecast
-0.91Last Year’s EPS
-0.48Same Quarter Last Year
Based on 4 Analysts Ratings
Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: the company faces large, structural headwinds from a 50% U.S. tariff that materially depressed volumes, margins, and resulted in significant adjusted EBITDA losses and workforce reductions. Offsetting these negatives are meaningful strategic actions — a successful EAF ramp underway, substantial government-backed liquidity, a differentiated plate market position, a material MOU with Hanwha Ocean, and meaningful working capital improvements that eased near-term cash burn. While the transformation and strategic repositioning create a credible path to stability and long-term value, the magnitude of the financial losses and market disruption means challenges remain in the near term.Company Guidance
EAF Ramp-Up and Operational Progress
First electric-arc furnace (EAF) is running on a full 24-hour schedule with stable metallurgical quality and process control across plate and hot-rolled coil grades; second EAF remains on schedule. Cumulative project investment was C$920,000,000 as of 12/31/2025 with expected final aggregate cost of ~C$987,000,000 (implying ~C$67,000,000 remaining).
Strategic Pivot to Canadian Market and Plate Advantage
Company has exited primary blast furnace and coke oven operations and is pivoting to the Canadian market, focusing on high-value plate and selected coil products. Algoma is Canada's only producer of discrete plate, with plate demand across infrastructure, construction, and defense described as healthy and expected to increase sequentially into 2026.
Government-Backed Liquidity and Balance Sheet Availability
Secured C$500,000,000 in government-backed liquidity support plus an ABL facility. End-of-quarter liquidity position included C$77,000,000 cash, C$195,000,000 available under revolving credit, and C$417,000,000 available under the large enterprise tariff loan facility, providing runway for transformation.
Commercial Partnership Opportunity (Hanwha MOU)
Announced binding MOU with Hanwha Ocean (Jan 2026) with aggregate potential value of US$250,000,000, including US$200,000,000 toward a potential structural steel beam mill and up to US$50,000,000 in anticipated product purchases tied to the Canadian Patrol Submarine Program — a material signal of defense/shipbuilding demand.
Working Capital and Inventory Reduction Driving Cash Relief
Inventories declined to C$569,000,000 at fiscal year end from C$790,000,000 at the end of Q3 (Q4 reduction of ~C$221,000,000) and from C$879,000,000 in 2024 (year reduction of ~C$310,000,000), contributing to cash used in operations of C$3,000,000 in Q4 versus C$77,000,000 a year earlier.
Product Mix and Pricing Improvements in Value-Add
Net sales realizations improved in Q4 to C$1,077/ton (from C$976/ton prior-year quarter) driven by a higher proportion of value-added products, and plate prices are holding up materially better than sheet/HRC.
2026 Shipments Guidance and Mix
Management expects 2026 total shipments of 1.0–1.2 million tonnes with an anticipated mix roughly 50/50 plate and sheet as EAF capacity ramps through the year.
TSE:ASTL Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed
TSE:ASTL Earnings-Related Price Changes
Report Date | Price 1 Day Before | Price 1 Day After | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Mar 11, 2026 | C$5.90 | C$5.04 | -14.58% |
Oct 29, 2025 | C$5.97 | C$5.59 | -6.37% |
Mar 12, 2025 | C$8.27 | C$8.86 | +7.15% |
Nov 06, 2024 | C$15.39 | C$16.31 | +5.99% |
Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.
FAQ
When does Algoma Steel Group (TSE:ASTL) report earnings?
Algoma Steel Group (TSE:ASTL) is schdueled to report earning on May 05, 2026, After Close (Confirmed).
What is Algoma Steel Group (TSE:ASTL) earnings time?
Algoma Steel Group (TSE:ASTL) earnings time is at May 05, 2026, After Close (Confirmed).
Where can I see when companies are reporting earnings?
You can see which companies are reporting today on our designated earnings calendar.
What companies are reporting earnings today?
You can see a list of the companies which are reporting today on TipRanks earnings calendar.
What is TSE:ASTL EPS forecast?
TSE:ASTL EPS forecast for the fiscal quarter 2026 (Q1) is -0.91.