Alvopetro Energy (ALV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$326.92M
• Dividend Yield: 8.44%
• Average Volume (3M): 20.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: 2.20%
• EPS Growth: 38.33%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 53
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 36,732,098
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 26,320
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 20,610
• PEG Ratio: 0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.46
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.81
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$70.71M

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: C$10.00 ▲(57.23% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/19/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, strong operating cash flow, and historically low leverage), supported by favorable valuation (low P/E and a high dividend yield). Technicals are positive with a clear uptrend, but an elevated RSI indicates potential near-term overbought conditions, and the 2025 debt increase plus commodity-linked volatility remain key risks.

Positive Factors

Consistent operating cash flow

Reliable operating cash flow in the C$35M–C$48M range supports durable internal funding for maintenance capex, distributions, and debt servicing. Historical OCF exceeding net income signals earnings quality and provides a cash buffer against commodity swings over the next several quarters.

Low historical leverage and growing equity

Historically low leverage and meaningful equity growth improve financial flexibility and resilience. A stronger equity base reduces bankruptcy and refinancing risk, enabling the company to fund development or weather temporary price dips without eroding long-term solvency.

High margins and strong ROE

Sustainably high net margins and elevated ROE indicate efficient asset economics and profitable production. This structural profitability supports reinvestment, dividend capacity, and resilience to modest price declines, assuming stable production and contract terms persist.

Negative Factors

Revenue and earnings volatility

Significant revenue and earnings swings reflect commodity-price and production sensitivity. This volatility complicates long-term planning, capital allocation, and distribution policies. Over the next several months, cashflow and investment ability can change materially with market or operational shifts.

Notable debt increase in 2025

A marked rise in debt erodes previously low leverage, raising interest and refinancing risk. If commodity prices soften, higher debt reduces financial flexibility and could force tighter capex or payout decisions, making balance-sheet dynamics a near-term governance and liquidity concern.

Concentrated Brazil onshore gas exposure

Concentration in Brazilian onshore gas exposes the firm to country-specific regulatory, fiscal, infrastructure, and demand risks. Limited geographic and product diversification means domestic policy changes, transport bottlenecks, or local demand shifts can materially and persistently affect revenues.

Alvopetro Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alvopetro Energy Ltd. is a Canadian-based oil and gas exploration and production company primarily focused on the development of hydrocarbons in Brazil. The company operates in the energy sector, specializing in the exploration, production, and sale of oil and natural gas. Alvopetro is committed to sustainable energy practices and aims to create value for its shareholders through efficient resource management and advanced technology in hydrocarbon extraction.

How the Company Makes Money

Alvopetro makes money primarily by producing and selling natural gas (and associated hydrocarbons, if any) from its onshore Brazilian fields. Revenue is generated from (i) sales volumes delivered to customers and (ii) the realized sales price under its commercialization arrangements. Cash flow and earnings are therefore driven by production levels, well performance and uptime, operating costs, and the pricing and contractual terms of its gas sales. Where applicable, Alvopetro’s net revenue is also influenced by its working interests in fields (its share of production and costs), royalties and applicable taxes, and any processing/transport arrangements needed to move gas from the field to buyers. Specific named counterparties, contract structures, and partnership terms: null.

Alvopetro Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability with high net margins (~36%–50% in 2022–2024), solid cash generation (operating cash flow ~C$35M–C$48M in 2022–2025) and generally positive free cash flow with a strong rebound in 2025. Balance sheet leverage has been low historically (debt-to-equity ~0.10 in 2022–2024) and ROE has been strong, but revenue/earnings volatility and a notable increase in total debt in 2025 temper the score.

Income Statement

Profitability is strong, with high gross and net margins in recent years (2022–2024 net margin ~36%–50%), reflecting a highly profitable asset base. Revenue has been volatile (large growth in 2021–2022 followed by declines in 2023–2024), but 2025 returned to modest growth (+4.5%). Earnings also dipped from the 2022 peak, which is a key risk given commodity-linked sensitivity, but overall the company remains solidly profitable.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is low in most years, with debt-to-equity around ~0.10 in 2022–2024 (higher in 2020–2021 but still manageable), supporting financial flexibility. Equity has grown materially over time (from ~C$53M in 2020 to ~C$95M in 2025), and returns on equity have been strong (notably ~21% in 2024 and >30% in 2022–2023). The main watch item is the sharp increase in total debt in 2025 versus 2024, which could reduce flexibility if commodity prices weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength: operating cash flow is consistently high (roughly C$35M–C$48M in 2022–2025) and has exceeded net income by a wide margin where provided, indicating good earnings quality. Free cash flow is generally positive and rebounded strongly in 2025 (up ~42%), but it can be volatile (negative in 2020 and softer in 2023–2024), likely reflecting capex timing and production/price swings typical for the industry.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	54.79M	45.52M	58.03M	63.51M	34.98M
Gross Profit	35.99M	32.46M	53.83M	48.47M	20.13M
EBITDA	41.05M	28.11M	41.96M	46.28M	22.16M
Net Income	23.50M	16.30M	28.52M	31.73M	5.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	139.86M	101.02M	109.83M	98.43M	73.63M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	32.34M	21.70M	18.33M	19.78M	11.47M
Total Debt	26.98M	7.86M	8.68M	9.43M	14.52M
Total Liabilities	44.66M	21.66M	21.62M	22.02M	22.61M
Stockholders Equity	95.20M	79.36M	88.21M	76.41M	51.02M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.88M	19.60M	20.25M	22.74M	19.78M
Operating Cash Flow	41.52M	34.90M	47.70M	47.53M	24.29M
Investing Cash Flow	-33.40M	-11.69M	-27.75M	-22.77M	-3.98M
Financing Cash Flow	2.83M	-17.99M	-21.74M	-16.55M	-13.74M

Alvopetro Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.36
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ALV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.23, below the 50-day MA of 7.64, and below the 200-day MA of 6.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.53 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ALV.

Alvopetro Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALV	81 Outperform	C$326.92M	8.36	21.90%	8.44%	2.20%	38.33%
RBY	71 Outperform	C$289.22M	6.88	9.87%	―	74.76%	7.44%
JOY	66 Neutral	C$362.37M	8.24	7.54%	―	-1.47%	267.04%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
FO	54 Neutral	C$305.01M	-45.30	-6.58%	―	―	-5.88%
RECO	50 Neutral	C$347.61M	-8.00	-10.39%	―	―	―
GASX	40 Underperform	C$447.90M	-6.97	-82.09%	―	5.13%	61.58%

Alvopetro Energy Corporate Events

Alvopetro Posts Transformational 2025, Hikes Capacity and Confirms Q1 Dividend

Alvopetro reported a transformational 2025, with average daily sales rising 41% to 2,523 boepd and 2P reserves up 43% to 13.1 MMboe, driven largely by its successful 183-D4 well at Murucututu, while also declaring a Q1 2026 dividend of US$0.12 per share. The company is accelerating growth plans by quadrupling Murucututu field and gas processing capacity to 600 e3m3/d, advancing new drilling in Brazil and Canada, and posting strong reserve economics, including a 2P reserves life index of 12.5 years and a 2P recycle ratio of 3.4 times, underscoring robust sustainability and value creation for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Hold with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Alvopetro Posts Higher Year-on-Year February Volumes as It Refines Brazil-Canada Gas Focus

Alvopetro Energy reported February 2026 sales volumes of 3,058 boepd, down 1% from January but up 8% from the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting steady growth driven mainly by its Brazilian operations. Brazilian sales averaged 2,879 boepd, with natural gas output of 16.2 MMcfpd and condensate NGLs of 185 bopd, while Canadian oil production contributed 179 bopd, and the company is progressing the divestiture of certain Brazilian oil fields as it sharpens its focus on core natural gas assets and its dual-country growth strategy.

The company highlighted that its sales volumes are reported on a sales-delivery basis rather than pure production, and its long-term gas sales contract is underpinned by firm daily volumes that are effectively supported by higher-heating-value natural gas. Together with an updated corporate presentation and active investor outreach through social media, these disclosures underscore Alvopetro’s emphasis on disciplined capital deployment between Brazil and Canada and on maximizing value from its contracted gas position and midstream infrastructure for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Hold with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Alvopetro Reserves Jump 79% as New Wells and Canadian Assets Boost Outlook

Alvopetro reported a sharp increase in reserves at year-end 2025, with total proved reserves up 79% to 8.1 MMboe and proved plus probable reserves up 43% to 13.1 MMboe, driven largely by its successful 183-D4 well at Murucututu and newly added Canadian assets. The company achieved a 2P production replacement ratio of 530%, extended its 2P reserve life index to 12.5 years, and increased the value of its reserves and prospective resources, underscoring a stronger asset base and supporting its strategy of balancing returns to stakeholders with continued organic growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Hold with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.

Alvopetro Sets Record Quarterly and Annual Sales Volumes on Brazilian Gas Growth

Alvopetro Energy reported record quarterly and annual sales volumes, driven largely by growth in its Brazilian natural gas operations. December 2025 sales averaged 2,826 boepd, with Brazil contributing 2,687 boepd and Canada 139 bopd, while fourth-quarter 2025 volumes rose 22% from the previous quarter to 2,867 boepd and full-year 2025 volumes increased 41% over 2024 to 2,524 boepd. The strong performance reflects continued expansion at the Caburé and Murucututu fields and underscores the company’s growing production scale across its Brazilian gas and liquids portfolio, even as it moves to dispose of smaller Brazilian oil fields as part of an ongoing portfolio optimization strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ALV) stock is a Buy with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alvopetro Energy stock, see the TSE:ALV Stock Forecast page.