Acadian Timber (TSE:ADN)
TSX:ADN
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Acadian Timber
(TSX:ADN)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$18.50
▲(9.27% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by a healthy balance sheet and strong reported profitability, offset by weaker growth and uneven cash conversion. Technicals are mildly supportive, while valuation is mixed (high dividend yield but a mid-to-high P/E). The latest call adds a balanced outlook: tangible operational improvement initiatives, but ongoing pricing, logistics, and trade-policy headwinds.
Positive Factors
Healthy balance sheet & moderate leverage
Acadian's conservative capitalization and moderate debt-to-equity (~0.31–0.36) support resilience across timber cycles. Stronger equity and manageable leverage reduce refinancing and liquidity risk, enabling steady dividend policy and funding for productivity investments over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline and EBITDA volatility
Top-line drift and large year-to-year EBITDA swings, partly driven by nonrecurring carbon sales in 2024, indicate earnings volatility. For investors this implies higher operating earnings uncertainty and makes forecasting cash flow and dividend sustainability more challenging over a 2–6 month horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Healthy balance sheet & moderate leverage
Acadian's conservative capitalization and moderate debt-to-equity (~0.31–0.36) support resilience across timber cycles. Stronger equity and manageable leverage reduce refinancing and liquidity risk, enabling steady dividend policy and funding for productivity investments over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Acadian Timber (ADN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$316.70M
Dividend Yield7.35%
Average Volume (3M)15.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.7
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth-23.77%
EPS Growth142.01%
CountryCA
Employees195
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.67
Shares Outstanding18,455,847
10 Day Avg. Volume19,335
30 Day Avg. Volume15,100
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.80
Price to Sales (P/S)3.32
P/FCF Ratio79.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$18.00Price Target Upside6.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$104.10M
Acadian Timber Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Acadian Timber Corp. supplies primary forest products in Eastern Canada and the Northeastern United States. The company operates through two segments, NB Timberlands and Maine Timberlands. Its products include softwood and hardwood sawlogs, pulpwo...
How the Company Makes Money
Acadian Timber makes money primarily by selling timber harvested from its owned and managed timberlands. Its core revenue streams are (1) sawlog sales (higher-value logs sold to lumber producers and sawmills), (2) pulpwood sales (lower-diameter or...
Acadian Timber Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mix of positive operational momentum in the fourth quarter and clear strategic actions to address constraints (notably New Brunswick outperformance, improved Q4 EBITDA, safety record, liquidity and the establishment of internal logging operations in Maine). However, these positives were tempered by significant full-year declines in revenue and EBITDA (largely due to the absence of 2024 carbon credit sales), meaningful Maine production and cost challenges (production down 40% for the year in Maine and operating costs ~30% above long-term targets), ongoing pricing pressure across several product categories, logistics/trucking constraints, and trade policy risks. Overall, the company presented constructive near-term responses and a path to improvement while acknowledging material headwinds that impacted 2025 results.Positive Updates
Q4 Sales and Volume Growth
Fourth quarter sales of $22.0 million, up from $20.2 million a year earlier; freehold timber sales volumes (excluding biomass) increased 21% year-over-year, supported by favorable weather and improved contractor availability in New Brunswick.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Revenue and EBITDA Decline
Timber sales and services revenue for 2025 was $87.0 million vs $91.6 million in 2024; adjusted EBITDA for 2025 totaled $15.8 million (18% margin) versus $38.9 million (33% margin) in 2024, with the comparison notably impacted by $24.6 million of carbon credit sales in 2024 that did not recur in 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q4 Sales and Volume Growth
Fourth quarter sales of $22.0 million, up from $20.2 million a year earlier; freehold timber sales volumes (excluding biomass) increased 21% year-over-year, supported by favorable weather and improved contractor availability in New Brunswick.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 Acadian expects continued improvement in Maine from its new internal harvesting operations, targeting roughly its annual allowable cut of 240,000 m³ less about 10% (~216,000 m³) to reflect marketability, and plans to close a gap where operating cost per m³ was ~30% above long‑term targets at Q4 through productivity and equipment‑utilization gains; production momentum should continue through winter but is expected to ease in Q2–Q3 due to the usual spring slowdown and lower stand productivity. Macroeconomic assumptions include U.S. housing starts of ~1.38 million in 2026 (vs 1.35M in 2025), while company‑level expectations flag near‑term pressure from U.S. duties/tariffs and reduced softwood/hardwood pulpwood demand and pricing; voluntary carbon credits and pricing are expected to be stable, with ~400,000 carbon removal credits anticipated to register soon for the Maine project and potential future projects covering the remaining ~900,000 acres. The Company also expects to maintain contractor availability in New Brunswick, remain active in real estate (residential lot sales) and renewable energy investments, and to see pricing generally challenged until end‑use markets improve.Acadian Timber Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 85.53M | 86.96M | 116.19M | 93.48M | 90.47M | 95.73M |
| Gross Profit | 26.09M | 26.52M | 38.27M | 29.22M | 27.58M | 30.80M |
| EBITDA | 71.99M | 73.44M | 34.63M | 43.56M | 52.51M | 29.69M |
| Net Income | 48.79M | 48.97M | 21.74M | 29.43M | 35.51M | 18.68M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 633.59M | 633.61M | 608.02M | 567.95M | 547.84M | 516.64M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.27M | 4.81M | 15.25M | 1.83M | 6.23M | 7.32M |
| Total Debt | 111.94M | 110.71M | 114.94M | 105.52M | 107.94M | 100.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 272.06M | 273.87M | 268.99M | 248.97M | 244.11M | 225.16M |
| Stockholders Equity | 361.53M | 359.74M | 339.03M | 318.98M | 303.72M | 291.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.89M | 3.62M | 23.55M | 9.79M | 14.86M | 15.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.45M | 6.82M | 34.05M | 10.41M | 15.23M | 16.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 223.00K | -8.52M | -9.14M | 56.00K | -319.00K | 186.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.03M | -8.74M | -11.49M | -14.87M | -16.00M | -19.36M |
Acadian Timber Technical Analysis
Positive
16.93
Price Trends
16.69
Positive
16.13
Positive
16.10
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Positive
52.37
Neutral
56.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ADN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.90, above the 50-day MA of 16.69, and above the 200-day MA of 16.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ADN.
Acadian Timber Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | C$316.70M | 22.72 | 14.25% | 7.35% | -23.77% | 142.01% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | C$151.40M | -2.02 | -12.20% | ― | -15.14% | -1199.88% | |
47 Neutral | C$6.63B | -9.62 | -23.07% | 2.21% | -11.68% | -64044.58% | |
47 Neutral | C$4.69M | -0.06 | -45.26% | ― | 11.75% | -19.27% | |
47 Neutral | C$623.47M | -1.37 | -25.24% | ― | -7.20% | -5.69% | |
47 Neutral | C$1.52B | -5.55 | -27.04% | ― | -0.13% | -33.42% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:ADN
Acadian Timber
17.16
0.76
4.63%
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Acadian Timber Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Acadian Timber Names Chair Malcolm Cockwell Interim CEO After Leadership Change
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
Acadian Timber Corp., a major timberland owner in Eastern Canada and the Northeastern U.S., manages about 2.4 million acres devoted to forest management and timber production, including sawlogs, pulpwood, and biomass products. The company serves a...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Acadian Timber posts steady Q4 but full-year cash flow hit by lack of carbon credit sales
Negative
Feb 12, 2026
Acadian Timber reported fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $22.0 million, up from $20.2 million a year earlier, with Adjusted EBITDA rising to $5.2 million as stronger New Brunswick operations helped offset weather, trucking, and productivity challenges...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.