TPG (TPG)
NASDAQ:TPG
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TPG
(NASDAQ:TPG)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$45.00
â–²(0.04% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/10/26
The score is driven by improving fundamentals and strong cash generation, reinforced by upbeat guidance and margin expansion expectations from the latest earnings call. These positives are offset by weak technical momentum (below major moving averages with bearish MACD/RSI) and a demanding P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Record fundraising and AUM scale
Sustained record fundraising and AUM growth materially enlarges TPG’s fee base and optionality. A larger AUM pool increases recurring management fees, creates more capital available for deployment and realizations, and supports durable fee revenue and future carried‑interest potential.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and pro‑forma net debt
Meaningful leverage increases interest expense and financial sensitivity to market slowdowns, constraining capital flexibility. The pro‑forma debt increase from strategic investments funded via revolver elevates refinancing and liquidity risk and can amplify earnings volatility during downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record fundraising and AUM scale
Sustained record fundraising and AUM growth materially enlarges TPG’s fee base and optionality. A larger AUM pool increases recurring management fees, creates more capital available for deployment and realizations, and supports durable fee revenue and future carried‑interest potential.
Read all positive factors
TPG (TPG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.49B
Dividend Yield3.03%
Average Volume (3M)3.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.0
Beta (1Y)1.55
Revenue Growth33.56%
EPS Growth6716.41%
CountryUS
Employees1,900
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.71
Shares Outstanding153,715,210
10 Day Avg. Volume3,402,033
30 Day Avg. Volume3,402,809
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)7.48
Price to Sales (P/S)1.90
P/FCF Ratio8.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$55.91Price Target Upside24.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.78B
TPG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TPG Inc. operates as an alternative asset manager worldwide. It offers investment management services to unconsolidated funds, collateralized loan obligations, and other vehicles; monitoring services to portfolio companies; advisory services, debt...
How the Company Makes Money
TPG primarily makes money by earning fees and performance-related income for managing capital on behalf of its investors. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Management fees: recurring fees charged to the firm’s managed funds and related vehicle...
TPG Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Categorizes revenue by its sources, providing clarity on how the firm earns money and the stability or volatility of its income streams.
Categorizes revenue by its sources, providing clarity on how the firm earns money and the stability or volatility of its income streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTPG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple record-breaking operating and financial achievements: exceptional fundraising ($51B, +71% YoY), record deployment ($52B) and strong margin expansion (FRE margin 45% for 2025, Q4 at 52%), along with robust portfolio performance and significant dry powder ($72B). Management acknowledged some near-term noise — lumpiness of capital markets revenue, seasonal tax/office build costs, higher pro forma net debt from a strategic investment, and market skepticism about direct lending sustainability — but provided detailed metrics supporting credit quality and selective software exposure. The positive operational momentum, clear pipeline for realizations and a constructive 2026 outlook (expect >$50B fundraising and ~47% FRE margin) outweigh the listed headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Fundraising
Raised a record $51 billion in 2025, a 71% increase versus 2024; formed 5 cross-platform strategic partnerships representing >$10 billion of commitments and expect 2026 fundraising to exceed $50 billion.
Negative Updates
Market Skepticism Around Direct Lending
Public investor skepticism noted (stock weakness) around sustainability of direct lending performance and valuation methods despite internal metrics; management acknowledged perception risk in the broader market for lending strategies.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Fundraising
Raised a record $51 billion in 2025, a 71% increase versus 2024; formed 5 cross-platform strategic partnerships representing >$10 billion of commitments and expect 2026 fundraising to exceed $50 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TPG guided to another strong year in 2026, expecting aggregate capital raising to exceed $50 billion (after a record $51B in 2025) and a full‑year fee‑related earnings (FRE) margin of ~47% (up from 45% in 2025; Q4 FRE margin was 52%); they forecast Q1 ’26 employer tax expense of roughly $20 million and a Q1 tax rate in the high single‑digits to low double‑digits, and—based on the current signed monetization pipeline—expect to generate more than $50 million of realized performance revenue for public shareholders in Q1; at closing of the Jackson Financial partnership TPG will invest $500 million in Jackson (funded from the revolver), leaving pro‑forma net debt of about $2.1 billion (Q4 net debt $1.6B; $1.75B undrawn revolver); management reiterated fundraising priorities (TREP V, Asia and Japan real estate funds, credit scale including ADL and CLO/ABF, private equity flagship closes, GP Solutions, Asia growth equity, sports and transition infrastructure) and highlighted $40 billion of AUM subject to fee‑earning growth (including $29B not yet earning fees) and $19 billion of credit AUM subject to fee earning growth (approximately $130M of annual fee revenue when deployed), while accelerating private wealth (T‑POP, TCAP) and insurance channels.TPG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.67B | 2.62B | 1.86B | 1.50B | 5.58B |
| Gross Profit | 4.52B | 2.54B | 1.82B | 1.48B | 5.56B |
| EBITDA | 825.55M | 110.56M | 131.33M | 9.24M | 4.69B |
| Net Income | 184.59M | 23.48M | 80.09M | 92.43M | 2.18B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.49B | 10.54B | 9.37B | 7.94B | 8.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 826.11M | 808.02M | 665.19M | 1.11B | 978.10M |
| Total Debt | 1.72B | 1.58B | 1.26B | 592.45M | 621.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 9.36B | 6.94B | 6.01B | 4.86B | 1.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.19B | 784.10M | 579.16M | 509.67M | 1.61B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.00B | 504.01M | 703.79M | 1.37B | 1.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 532.15M | 720.52M | 1.38B | 1.47B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -263.96M | -44.47M | -373.56M | -3.01M | -37.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -750.36M | -344.86M | -789.23M | -1.24B | -1.32B |
TPG Technical Analysis
Neutral
44.98
Price Trends
43.20
Positive
53.10
Negative
55.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Negative
62.84
Neutral
90.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 44.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.16, above the 50-day MA of 43.20, and below the 200-day MA of 55.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TPG.
TPG Risk Analysis
TPG disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TPG reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TPG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $13.36B | 8.13 | 9.22% | 9.64% | 7.19% | -24.22% | |
69 Neutral | $146.95B | 34.66 | 36.17% | 3.02% | 20.63% | 17.98% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $36.96B | 66.62 | 12.01% | 2.65% | 53.25% | -15.15% | |
60 Neutral | $16.49B | 48.03 | 16.10% | 3.03% | 33.56% | 6716.41% | |
60 Neutral | $17.24B | 26.29 | 14.18% | 2.30% | -9.67% | -21.10% | |
57 Neutral | $89.78B | 24.79 | 8.15% | 0.56% | -13.38% | -27.58% |
* Financial Sector Average
TPG
TPG
42.08
-3.22
-7.11%
KKR
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99.32
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BX
Blackstone Group
119.83
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CG
Carlyle Group
47.81
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27.00%
ARCC
Ares Capital
18.67
-0.14
-0.75%
ARES
Ares Management
110.86
-36.72
-24.88%
TPG Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
TPG Adds Admiral McRaven to Support Governance Shift
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
On April 8, 2026, as part of its transition to a majority‑independent board, TPG Inc. expanded its board of directors from thirteen to fourteen members and appointed Admiral William H. McRaven as an independent director, effective May 1, 202...
Private Placements and Financing
TPG Completes $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, TPG Inc. and several indirect subsidiaries completed a $500 million offering of 4.875% unsecured, unsubordinated senior notes due May 15, 2031. Issued by TPG Operating Group II, L.P. and fully and unconditionally guaranteed o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.