TPG (TPG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.09B
• Dividend Yield: 3.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.79M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 106.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.53
• Revenue Growth: 25.02%
• EPS Growth: 235.70%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,900
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.71
• Shares Outstanding: 146,498,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,279,930
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,788,767
• PEG Ratio: 0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 53.49
• 1Y Price Target: $66.78
• Price Target Upside: 50.03% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $51.00 ▲(14.58% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

The score is driven primarily by improving underlying financial performance (revenue and free-cash-flow rebound) and a notably positive earnings outlook (strong 2026 fundraising and margin guidance). These strengths are tempered by weak technical momentum (clear downtrend/oversold signals), a leveraged balance sheet, and an expensive headline P/E that the dividend yield only partly offsets.

Positive Factors

Fundraising & Scale

Record fundraising and enlarged AUM provide durable scale and diversification, expanding recurring management fees and deal access. Scale lowers unit economics for fundraising/operations, enhances negotiating leverage on transactions, and supports sustained fee growth as new funds convert to fee earning.

Fee Margin Expansion

Improving fee-related earnings margins reflect stronger mix toward higher-margin products and operational leverage. A structurally higher FRE margin raises recurring profitability, makes earnings less dependent on realizations, and supports resilient cash generation across market cycles.

Cash Generation

Sustained positive operating and free cash flow strengthens capital flexibility: funds available for reinvestment, GP commitments, dividends or debt reduction. Robust FCF provides a buffer against episodic carry timing and supports strategic initiatives without immediate equity issuance.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

Material leverage increases sensitivity to interest rates and earnings swings and constrains financial flexibility. Revolver-funded strategic investments raise pro-forma debt, amplifying risk during slower exit windows and potentially limiting capital return or opportunistic M&A in weaker markets.

Revenue Lumpiness

A meaningful portion of revenue stems from episodic transaction fees and performance allocations; realizations and capital-markets income are inherently uneven. Large committed-but-not-fee-earning AUM delays revenue capture, increasing forecasting uncertainty and quarterly cash/earnings volatility.

Perception Risk in Direct Lending

Public skepticism about direct lending durability can raise fundraising friction and valuation scrutiny for credit products. If investor appetite or pricing tightens, TPG’s expanding credit franchise could face higher funding costs or slower monetization, pressuring long-term fee growth.

TPG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TPG Inc. operates as an alternative asset manager worldwide. It offers investment management services to unconsolidated funds, collateralized loan obligations, and other vehicles; monitoring services to portfolio companies; advisory services, debt and equity arrangements, and underwriting and placement services; and capital structuring and other advisory services to portfolio companies. The company invests in private equity funds, real estate funds, fund of hedge funds, and credit funds. TPG Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. TPG Inc. operates as a subsidiary of TPG GP A, LLC.

How the Company Makes Money

TPG generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees. Management fees are charged as a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) and provide a steady income stream for the firm. Performance fees, also known as carried interest, are earned when TPG's investments exceed predetermined return thresholds, creating significant upside potential. Additionally, TPG benefits from its diverse investment portfolio and strategic partnerships with various institutional investors, enhancing its capital base and investment opportunities. The firm also engages in co-investments with partners, allowing it to share risks and rewards on larger deals, further contributing to its earnings.

TPG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are improving but uneven: 2025 revenue rebounded strongly and free cash flow strengthened (~$1.00B), but profitability has been volatile across years and the balance sheet remains leveraged (debt-to-equity ~1.45 despite improvement).

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 (up ~54% year over year) after a more modest 2024, showing improved top-line momentum. Profitability, however, has been volatile: 2025 operating profitability improved meaningfully versus 2024’s loss, but net profit margin in 2025 remained modest (~4%), well below the exceptionally strong profitability seen in 2020–2021. Overall, the income profile is improving recently but remains uneven across years, which tempers the score.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows elevated leverage, with debt-to-equity around ~1.45 in 2025 (improved from ~2.02 in 2024, but still high). Equity has been rebuilding (up notably in 2025 vs. 2023–2024), supporting a better capital base and a stronger return on equity in 2025 (~15.6%). The key drawback is continued reliance on debt financing, which can amplify earnings swings in weaker periods.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened in 2025, with operating cash flow rising to about $1.03B and free cash flow to about $1.00B, alongside positive free-cash-flow growth (~16%). Cash flow has been generally robust in most years shown (particularly 2021–2022 and again 2025), although there was a weak spot in 2020 with negative free cash flow. Some provided cash-flow ratio fields appear inconsistent (reported as 0.0 in 2025), so the score emphasizes the clearly positive absolute cash flow and recent improvement.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.67B	2.62B	1.86B	1.50B	5.58B
Gross Profit	4.52B	2.54B	1.82B	1.48B	5.56B
EBITDA	825.55M	110.56M	131.33M	9.24M	4.69B
Net Income	184.59M	23.48M	80.09M	92.43M	2.18B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.49B	10.54B	9.37B	7.94B	8.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	826.11M	808.02M	665.19M	1.11B	978.10M
Total Debt	1.72B	1.58B	1.26B	592.45M	621.45M
Total Liabilities	9.36B	6.94B	6.01B	4.86B	1.70B
Stockholders Equity	1.19B	784.10M	579.16M	509.67M	1.61B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.00B	504.01M	703.79M	1.37B	1.47B
Operating Cash Flow	1.03B	532.15M	720.52M	1.38B	1.47B
Investing Cash Flow	-263.96M	-44.47M	-373.56M	-3.01M	-37.74M
Financing Cash Flow	-750.36M	-344.86M	-789.23M	-1.24B	-1.32B

TPG Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 44.51
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 44.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.82, below the 50-day MA of 61.02, and below the 200-day MA of 56.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.21 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TPG.

TPG Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BX	70 Outperform	$163.30B	34.34	35.78%	3.02%	33.12%	19.86%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
KKR	67 Neutral	$92.35B	44.27	9.12%	0.56%	-33.80%	-24.81%
ARES	66 Neutral	$43.79B	68.34	―	2.65%	50.70%	7.32%
TPG	63 Neutral	$18.09B	106.82	13.14%	3.03%	25.02%	235.70%
ARCC	62 Neutral	$13.94B	10.44	9.39%	9.64%	10.34%	-24.16%
CG	59 Neutral	$19.79B	25.18	12.77%	2.30%	-24.62%	437.16%

TPG Corporate Events

TPG Forms Strategic Investment Partnership With Jackson Financial

On January 6, 2026, TPG Inc. and Jackson Financial Inc. announced a long-term strategic investment management partnership under which TPG will manage at least $12 billion of Jackson general account assets, with incentives tied to a potential expansion to $20 billion, initially focused on investment-grade asset-based finance and direct lending. As part of the transaction, which is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 subject to customary conditions, TPG will make a $500 million minority equity investment in Jackson for an approximate 6.5% stake, while Jackson will receive $150 million of TPG Class A shares and potentially additional stock if assets under management reach $20 billion, creating mutual ownership stakes, reinforcing TPG’s credit franchise and insurance strategy, and providing Jackson with differentiated investment opportunities and capital to support its growth and competitiveness in the U.S. retirement services market; both parties are subject to multi-year restrictions and phased limits on selling the shares received, underscoring the long-term nature of the partnership.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPG) stock is a Hold with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG stock, see the TPG Stock Forecast page.

TPG Approves Special Long-Term Equity Awards for Executives

On December 18, 2025, TPG Inc.’s board compensation committee approved a special long-term equity incentive award for CEO Jon Winkelried with a face value of $25 million in restricted stock units (RSUs), to be granted on January 13, 2026 and vesting in three tranches between 2029 and 2031, with detailed provisions for forfeiture, orderly retirement, qualifying termination, and change-in-control scenarios designed to support retention and align his pay with perceived performance and shareholder value creation. On the same date, the company also approved special RSU-based equity grants for CFO Jack Weingart and COO Anilu Vazquez-Ubarri, with face values of $7.5 million and $5 million respectively, to be granted on January 13, 2026 and vesting in equal annual installments from 2027 through 2031, moves that aim to bring their compensation in line with market levels, reward both organic and inorganic growth, and strengthen long-term executive retention under TPG’s existing recoupment and clawback policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPG) stock is a Buy with a $82.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TPG stock, see the TPG Stock Forecast page.