TPG (TPG) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

169 Followers

Top Page

TPG

(NASDAQ:TPG)

Select Model

Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:―

TPG's overall score reflects strong strategic growth and operational efficiency but is tempered by profitability challenges and negative technical indicators. The robust earnings call and dividend yield provide some positive outlook, but market headwinds and valuation concerns weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Strong Fundraising

TPG's ability to significantly increase fundraising showcases its strong market position and investor confidence, which supports future growth and investment opportunities.

Operational Efficiency

A strong balance sheet with no debt reliance indicates financial stability and operational efficiency, allowing TPG to navigate market fluctuations and invest in growth opportunities.

Expansion into New Strategies

Expanding into climate and infrastructure strategies positions TPG to capitalize on emerging market trends and diversify its investment portfolio, enhancing long-term growth potential.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Negative profit margins indicate ongoing challenges in achieving profitability, which can impact TPG's ability to reinvest in its business and return value to shareholders.

Fee-Earning AUM Growth Challenges

Slow growth in fee-earning AUM can limit revenue growth from management fees, impacting TPG's ability to scale its operations and increase profitability.

Cash Flow Fluctuations

Fluctuations in cash flow growth can affect TPG's ability to fund new investments and operational initiatives, potentially hindering long-term strategic goals.

TPG (TPG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$19.85B

Dividend Yield3.49%

Average Volume (3M)1.78M

Price to Earnings (P/E)556.2

Beta (1Y)1.64

Revenue Growth25.02%

EPS Growth235.70%

CountryUS

Employees1,900

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength70

IndustryAsset Management

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.69

Shares Outstanding141,034,700

10 Day Avg. Volume2,018,467

30 Day Avg. Volume1,776,005

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-3.62

Price to Book (P/B)8.03

Price to Sales (P/S)2.40

P/FCF Ratio12.50

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29

Enterprise Value/Revenue7.07

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.01

Enterprise Value/Ebitda44.70

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$64.00

Price Target Upside17.07% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering8

EPS Forecast (FY)2.4

Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.20B

TPG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTPG is a leading global alternative asset management firm with a focus on private equity, growth equity, real estate, credit, and public equity. The company operates across multiple sectors, including healthcare, technology, consumer products, and financial services, offering a range of investment strategies to its clients. TPG is known for its active management approach and its ability to create value through strategic investments and operational improvements.

How the Company Makes MoneyTPG makes money primarily through managing private investment funds and earning fees from investors. The company's revenue streams include management fees, which are a percentage of the total assets under management, and performance fees, which are earned when the investment returns exceed a predetermined benchmark. TPG also generates income from strategic partnerships and co-investments with institutional investors, enhancing its ability to deploy capital effectively across diverse sectors. Additionally, the firm earns returns from its direct investments and successful exits, including the sale of portfolio companies or assets.

TPG Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Type

Revenue by Type
Categorizes revenue by its sources, providing clarity on how the firm earns money and the stability or volatility of its income streams.

Chart InsightsTPG's Management Fees have shown consistent growth, reflecting strong operational performance and strategic focus on fee-generating activities. The recent earnings call highlights an impressive 80% increase in fundraising and robust deployment, indicating strong momentum. This aligns with the significant rise in Management Fees and suggests continued revenue growth potential. However, challenges in the broader private equity market and specific sectors like insurance could pose risks. TPG's strategic acquisitions and record dry powder position it well to capitalize on future opportunities, despite market uncertainties.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

TPG Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

TPG's earnings call reflected strong fundraising and deployment activities, along with significant growth in assets under management. The company's portfolio performance and strategic initiatives in private equity, credit, and real estate were highlighted as key strengths. However, the limited performance-related earnings and increased net debt were noted as areas of concern.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Fundraising Performance

TPG raised a near-record $18 billion in capital during the third quarter, marking a 60% increase from the second quarter and a 75% year-over-year increase. Year-to-date, the company has raised over $35 billion, surpassing its total fundraising for 2024.

Growth in Assets Under Management

Total assets under management grew 20% year-over-year to $286 billion, with fee-earning AUM increasing 15% to $163 billion. The company ended the quarter with a record $73 billion in dry powder.

Record Deployment Activity

TPG deployed a record $15 billion in the third quarter, representing a 70% year-over-year increase. The deployment was well diversified across the firm.

Positive Portfolio Performance

The private equity portfolio appreciated 3% in the quarter and 11% over the last 12 months, with EBITDA growth of approximately 20%. The real estate portfolio appreciated 3.5% in the quarter and nearly 16% over the last 12 months.

Negative Updates

Limited Performance-Related Earnings

Despite strong realizations totaling $8 billion in the quarter, performance-related earnings were limited due to the timing of profit allocations early in a fund's life.

Increased Net Debt

Net debt increased to $1.7 billion due to the use of revolver funds for growth initiatives, including the acquisition of Peppertree and seeding new portfolios.

Company Guidance

During the TPG's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance highlighting several key metrics. TPG reported a GAAP net income of $67 million and after-tax distributable earnings of $214 million, or $0.53 per share of Class A common stock. They declared a dividend of $0.45 per share of Class A common stock, to be paid on December 1, 2025. The firm's total assets under management (AUM) grew by 20% year-over-year, with fee-related earnings increasing by 18%. They raised nearly $18 billion of capital in the quarter, up 60% from the previous quarter, and have raised over $35 billion year-to-date, exceeding their full-year 2024 fundraising. In the credit sector, they closed $4.8 billion of capital, with a record $3 billion continuation vehicle in middle market direct lending. Their private equity segment raised $12.3 billion, primarily from their flagship buyout funds. TPG's total dry powder reached a record $73 billion, and they reported a fee-related earnings margin of 44%. The company continues to focus on expanding its presence in private wealth and insurance distribution channels, with significant growth in capital from insurance clients and the successful launch of their perpetually offered private equity product, T-POP, which has raised approximately $900 million since its launch.

TPG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

TPG exhibits strong operational efficiency and a robust balance sheet with no debt reliance. However, challenges in profitability and cash flow fluctuations impact its financial performance.

Income Statement

Neutral

TPG's revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable increase in 2024 compared to 2023. However, the net profit margin is negative due to a net loss in 2024, indicating challenges in profitability. The EBIT margin improved significantly in 2024, reflecting better operational efficiency despite previous losses.

Balance Sheet

Positive

TPG has a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, indicating no reliance on debt financing in 2024. The equity ratio is moderate, reflecting a stable financial position. However, fluctuations in stockholders' equity over the years suggest potential volatility.

Cash Flow

Positive

The free cash flow was positive in 2024, showcasing good cash generation ability. The operating cash flow is strong compared to net income, which is a positive indicator. However, the decline in free cash flow growth in 2024 compared to previous periods points to some challenges in maintaining cash flow momentum.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.63B	3.50B	1.82B	1.90B	5.56B	2.25B
Gross Profit	2.33B	728.39M	23.28M	381.47M	4.62B	1.72B
EBITDA	574.25M	110.56M	0.00	179.51M	0.00	1.11B
Net Income	241.95M	23.48M	80.09M	92.43M	2.18B	731.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.02B	10.54B	9.37B	7.94B	8.96B	7.00B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.08B	808.02M	678.37M	1.11B	972.73M	1.26B
Total Debt	607.56M	1.58B	1.26B	444.57M	621.45M	490.63M
Total Liabilities	9.25B	6.94B	6.01B	4.86B	1.66B	1.48B
Stockholders Equity	3.77B	784.10M	579.16M	509.67M	1.61B	2.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	867.08M	504.01M	703.79M	1.37B	1.47B	-20.16M
Operating Cash Flow	888.02M	532.15M	720.52M	1.38B	1.47B	95.39M
Investing Cash Flow	-256.10M	-44.47M	-373.56M	-3.01M	-37.74M	-108.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-716.16M	-344.86M	-789.23M	-1.24B	-1.32B	250.33M

TPG Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price54.67

Price Trends

50DMA

58.12

Negative

100DMA

57.43

Negative

200DMA

53.96

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.00

Positive

RSI

44.86

Neutral

STOCH

42.79

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 54.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.73, below the 50-day MA of 58.12, and above the 200-day MA of 53.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TPG.

TPG Risk Analysis

TPG disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TPG reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TPG Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARCC	78 Outperform	$14.59B	10.24	10.06%	9.33%	10.34%	-24.16%
BX	69 Neutral	$175.85B	41.39	35.17%	3.21%	31.91%	19.86%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CG	64 Neutral	$18.83B	28.96	10.68%	2.63%	-22.38%	437.16%
ARES	64 Neutral	$49.30B	63.14	―	2.88%	50.70%	9.49%
TPG	63 Neutral	$19.85B	556.16	7.19%	3.49%	25.02%	235.70%
KKR	59 Neutral	$105.92B	57.02	8.22%	0.59%	-24.62%	-48.96%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TPG

55.13

-8.99

-14.02%

KKR

KKR & Co

121.32

-30.25

-19.96%

Blackstone Group

145.94

-26.20

-15.22%

Carlyle Group

52.43

1.47

2.88%

ARCC

Ares Capital

20.20

0.49

2.49%

ARES

Ares Management

153.88

-12.15

-7.32%

TPG Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

TPG Strengthens Board with New Independent Director

Positive

Jan 15, 2025

On January 15, 2025, TPG Inc. appointed Kathy Elsesser as an independent director as part of its strategic transition to a majority independent board. Elsesser, who brings over three decades of experience from Goldman Sachs, will serve on the Audit and Compensation Committees, enhancing TPG’s corporate governance and positioning as a leader in the alternative asset management industry.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 21, 2025