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TPG (TPG)
NASDAQ:TPG
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TPG
(NASDAQ:TPG)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
TPG has put up peer-leading performance in Traditional Private Equity, supporting significant management fee growth and margin expansion.
Growth Plans
TPG is guiding for a doubling of AUM over upcoming years underpinned by further growing flagship funds, scaling newer strategies, distribution channel expansion and M&A capital deployment.
Valuation
TPG's valuation is attractively positioned compared to peers, with expected progress on new initiatives serving as a potential catalyst for re-rating.
Negative Factors
Management Fee Estimates
Management fee estimates for AG credit appear aggressive, posing risk of negative estimate revisions.
Market Performance
TPG shares underperformed on 1Q earnings day compared to the S&P 500 and peer average.
Private Equity Exposure
The higher-than-average tilt to private equity is a concern in the currently volatile environment.
TPG (TPG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.25B
Dividend Yield2.74%
Average Volume (3M)1.78M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth43.48%
EPS Growth-24.02%
CountryUS
Employees1,900
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength72
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.69
Shares Outstanding141,034,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,177,982
30 Day Avg. Volume1,779,045
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda73.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$62.50Price Target Upside-1.54% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
TPG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTPG Inc. operates as an alternative asset manager worldwide. It offers investment management services to unconsolidated funds, collateralized loan obligations, and other vehicles; monitoring services to portfolio companies; advisory services, debt and equity arrangements, and underwriting and placement services; and capital structuring and other advisory services to portfolio companies. The company invests in private equity funds, real estate funds, fund of hedge funds, and credit funds. TPG Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. TPG Inc. operates as a subsidiary of TPG GP A, LLC.
How the Company Makes MoneyTPG makes money primarily through managing private investment funds and earning fees from investors. The company's revenue streams include management fees, which are a percentage of the total assets under management, and performance fees, which are earned when the investment returns exceed a predetermined benchmark. TPG also generates income from strategic partnerships and co-investments with institutional investors, enhancing its ability to deploy capital effectively across diverse sectors. Additionally, the firm earns returns from its direct investments and successful exits, including the sale of portfolio companies or assets.
TPG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 10.82%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance with significant growth in fundraising, distributable earnings, and deployment. However, there are challenges related to macroeconomic uncertainty and the strategic expansion in the insurance channel. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, demonstrating TPG's robust business momentum.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Increase in Fundraising
Second quarter fundraising grew nearly 80% to $11.3 billion, with credit fundraising at a record $5.4 billion.
Growth in Distributable Earnings
After-tax distributable earnings for the quarter increased 30% compared to last year, reaching $268 million or $0.69 per share.
Strong Deployment and Realizations
Capital deployment increased 36% year-over-year to more than $10 billion, and realizations grew over 20% to $6.5 billion.
Expansion of Investor Base
TPG Growth VI exceeded its $4 billion target, raising a total of $4.8 billion, a 35% increase over the previous fund, with significant expansion in the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America.
Record Dry Powder
The firm ended the quarter with record dry powder of $63 billion, representing 43% of fee-earning AUM.
Negative Updates
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Impact
Ongoing macro uncertainty and muted distributions have led to cautious and highly selective client behavior.
Challenges in Insurance Channel
The firm continues to evaluate opportunities within the insurance channel, with sensitivity to not assuming liabilities that are outside of its core expertise.
Company Guidance
During TPG's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong financial performance with after-tax distributable earnings of $268 million, a 30% year-over-year increase, and GAAP net income attributable to TPG Inc. of $15 million. The dividend declared was $0.59 per share of Class A common stock. TPG highlighted significant growth in fundraising, with second-quarter fundraising increasing nearly 80% year-over-year to $11.3 billion, while deployment grew by 36% to $10.4 billion, and realizations increased over 20% to $6.5 billion. The firm achieved its second-highest fundraising quarter ever, driven by a record $5.4 billion raised on its credit platform. TPG's private equity platform also saw significant milestones, notably exceeding its target for TPG Growth VI by raising $4.8 billion. Additionally, TPG's total assets under management reached $261 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year, with fee-earning AUM at $146 billion. The company ended the quarter with a record $63 billion in dry powder, representing 43% of fee-earning AUM.TPG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
TPG exhibits strong operational efficiency and a robust balance sheet with no debt reliance. However, challenges in profitability and cash flow fluctuations impact its financial performance.Income Statement
TPG's revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable increase in 2024 compared to 2023. However, the net profit margin is negative due to a net loss in 2024, indicating challenges in profitability. The EBIT margin improved significantly in 2024, reflecting better operational efficiency despite previous losses.60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
TPG has a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0, indicating no reliance on debt financing in 2024. The equity ratio is moderate, reflecting a stable financial position. However, fluctuations in stockholders' equity over the years suggest potential volatility.75
Positive
Cash Flow
The free cash flow was positive in 2024, showcasing good cash generation ability. The operating cash flow is strong compared to net income, which is a positive indicator. However, the decline in free cash flow growth in 2024 compared to previous periods points to some challenges in maintaining cash flow momentum.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.02B | 2.62B | 1.82B | 1.90B | 5.56B | 2.25B |
| Gross Profit | 2.07B | 2.54B | 23.28M | 381.47M | 4.62B | 1.72B |
| EBITDA | 314.17M | 110.56M | 0.00 | 179.51M | 0.00 | 1.11B |
| Net Income | 51.68M | 23.48M | 80.09M | 92.43M | 2.18B | 731.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.97B | 10.54B | 9.37B | 7.94B | 8.96B | 7.00B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.11B | 808.02M | 678.37M | 1.11B | 972.73M | 1.26B |
| Total Debt | 602.85M | 1.58B | 1.26B | 444.57M | 621.45M | 490.63M |
| Total Liabilities | 8.41B | 6.94B | 6.01B | 4.86B | 1.66B | 1.48B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.56B | 784.10M | 579.16M | 509.67M | 1.61B | 2.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 443.47M | 504.01M | 703.79M | 1.37B | 1.47B | -20.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 464.91M | 532.15M | 720.52M | 1.38B | 1.47B | 95.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.45M | -44.47M | -373.56M | -3.01M | -37.74M | -108.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -452.46M | -344.86M | -789.23M | -1.24B | -1.32B | 250.33M |
TPG Technical Analysis
Positive
63.48
Price Trends
55.23
Positive
51.05
Positive
56.35
Positive
Market Momentum
2.49
Negative
69.50
Neutral
90.79
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.23, above the 50-day MA of 55.23, and above the 200-day MA of 56.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TPG.
TPG Risk Analysis
TPG disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TPG reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Artificial intelligence and other machine learning techniques could increase competitive, operational, legal and regulatory risks to our businesses in ways that we cannot predict. Q4, 2024
TPG Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $23.48B | 18.94 | 23.07% | 2.19% | 101.10% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $15.98B | 11.10 | 10.25% | 8.57% | 7.71% | -29.47% | |
70 Outperform | $24.57B | 15.10 | 13.47% | 2.38% | 3.44% | 16.76% | |
68 Neutral | $17.53B | 11.77 | 10.43% | 3.83% | 9.84% | 1.31% | |
66 Neutral | $18.44B | 27.46 | -2.89% | 2.75% | -18.21% | -116.73% | |
63 Neutral | $24.25B | ― | 2.55% | 2.74% | 43.48% | -24.02% | |
60 Neutral | $7.35B | 103.13 | -88.82% | 2.21% | 88.68% | -494.20% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TPG
TPG
63.48
15.65
32.72%
CG
Carlyle Group
63.86
23.23
57.17%
NTRS
Northern
126.02
41.43
48.98%
ARCC
Ares Capital
22.41
3.36
17.64%
STEP
StepStone Group
61.46
9.00
17.16%
CRBG
Corebridge Financial, Inc.
33.79
6.29
22.87%
TPG Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
TPG Strengthens Board with New Independent Director
Positive
Jan 15, 2025
On January 15, 2025, TPG Inc. appointed Kathy Elsesser as an independent director as part of its strategic transition to a majority independent board. Elsesser, who brings over three decades of experience from Goldman Sachs, will serve on the Audit and Compensation Committees, enhancing TPG’s corporate governance and positioning as a leader in the alternative asset management industry.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.