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Blackstone Group L.P. (BX)
NYSE:BX

Blackstone Group (BX) AI Stock Analysis

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BX

Blackstone Group

(NYSE:BX)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$161.00
▲(32.76% Upside)
The score is primarily driven by strong financial performance and a bullish earnings outlook (record DE/FRE, strong inflows and AUM growth). This is tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a high P/E multiple, which increases sensitivity to any slowdown or volatility.
Positive Factors
Record AUM growth & fundraising
Sustained, large-scale fundraising and rising AUM create a durable fee base and scale advantages. Recurring management fees from a $1.275T AUM platform plus elevated inflows support predictable revenue, underwriting capacity, and deployment optionality over the next several quarters.
Expanding, diversified fee streams
Rising fee-related earnings and widening FRE margins reflect stronger recurring fee economics across private equity, credit, infrastructure and wealth. A broader, growing fee mix reduces reliance on mark-to-market returns and supports sustainable cash payouts and reinvestment capacity.
Strong cash generation and profitability
High margins and improving free cash flow growth underpin operational resilience. Efficient cash conversion and strong profitability provide ongoing resources for fund investments, fee reinvestment and distributions, enhancing financial flexibility through market cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage on the balance sheet
Material leverage raises sensitivity to rising interest costs and financing market stress, limiting tactical flexibility for opportunistic investing. In adverse markets, higher debt can pressure distributable earnings and constrain timing of realizations or new deployments.
Reliance on one-time realizations
Notable contributions from nonrecurring monetizations reduce comparability and can inflate near-term distributable earnings. Dependence on sporadic exits makes underlying fee and DE growth less predictable and increases volatility in reported returns across reporting periods.
Concentration risk & slow real-estate recovery
Heavy exposure to data centers, logistics and rental housing concentrates portfolio risk; prolonged real-estate weakness reduces NAV appreciation and delays monetization windows. Concentration can amplify downside if sector fundamentals deteriorate or capital markets remain constrained.

Blackstone Group (BX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Blackstone Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBlackstone Inc. is an alternative asset management firm specializing in real estate, private equity, hedge fund solutions, credit, secondary funds of funds, public debt and equity and multi-asset class strategies. The firm typically invests in early-stage companies. It also provide capital markets services. The real estate segment specializes in opportunistic, core+ investments as well as debt investment opportunities collateralized by commercial real estate, and stabilized income-oriented commercial real estate across North America, Europe and Asia. The firm's corporate private equity business pursues transactions throughout the world across a variety of transaction types, including large buyouts,special situations, distressed mortgage loans, mid-cap buyouts, buy and build platforms, which involves multiple acquisitions behind a single management team and platform, and growth equity/development projects involving significant majority stakes in portfolio companies and minority investments in operating companies, shipping, real estate, corporate or consumer loans, and alternative energy greenfield development projects in energy and power, property, dislocated markets, shipping opportunities, financial institution breakups, re-insurance, and improving freight mobility, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, enterprise tech and consumer, as well as consumer technologies. The firm considers investment in Asia and Latin America. It has a three year investment period. Its hedge fund business manages a broad range of commingled and customized fund solutions and its credit business focuses on loans, and securities of non-investment grade companies spread across the capital structure including senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred stock and common equity. Blackstone Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices across Asia, Europe and North America.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlackstone generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees from its investment funds. The company earns management fees based on the assets it manages, which are calculated as a percentage of the committed capital in its private equity, real estate, and credit funds. Additionally, Blackstone collects performance fees, also known as carried interest, which are earned when the funds exceed specific return benchmarks. This model incentivizes the firm to maximize returns for its investors. Significant partnerships and relationships with institutional investors, such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, contribute to its capital raising efforts and overall earnings. Furthermore, Blackstone's diverse investment strategies across various sectors help mitigate risks and enhance revenue stability.

Blackstone Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Assets Under Management
Assets Under Management
Indicates the total value of assets that Blackstone Group manages on behalf of clients, reflecting the scale of its operations and potential for fee-based revenue growth.
Chart InsightsBlackstone's AUM has consistently grown, reaching a record $1.2 trillion, driven by significant inflows and strong private credit expansion. The latest earnings call highlights a 13% year-over-year increase, with robust fee-related earnings growth and substantial fundraising achievements. Despite challenges in real estate and muted realization environments, the firm remains optimistic about future growth, supported by favorable economic conditions and strategic initiatives. This sustained growth trajectory underscores Blackstone's strong market position and potential for continued expansion.
Data provided by:The Fly

Blackstone Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized record financial results, strong fundraising, significant AUM growth, robust investment performance across credit, infrastructure, and private equity, and accelerating deal activity and realizations. Management acknowledged real estate's slow recovery, some sector-specific headwinds, retail redemption sensitivity in certain credit vehicles, and dependence on a few one-time monetizations. On balance, the firm presented multiple structural tailwinds (AI infrastructure, private markets adoption, and institutional demand), clear momentum in fee growth and inflows, and a constructive outlook for 2026–2027.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Distributable Earnings and Strong Quarterly Results
GAAP net income of $2.0 billion in Q4; distributable earnings (DE) of $2.2 billion in Q4 ($1.75 per common share). Full-year DE grew ~20% to $7.1 billion, or $5.57 per share — the best year in the firm's history.
Exceptional Fundraising and Inflows
Inflows reached $71 billion in Q4 (the highest level in 3.5 years) and roughly $239–$240 billion for the full year, lifting momentum across institutional, private wealth, and insurance channels.
Assets Under Management Growth
AUM increased 13% year-over-year to a record of approximately $1.275 trillion (nearly $1.3 trillion), reflecting broad-based fundraising and product expansion.
Fee-Related Earnings and Management Fee Expansion
Q4 fee-related earnings (FRE) of $1.5 billion ($1.25 per share); management fees of $2.1 billion in Q4, up 11% YoY. Full-year FRE grew 9% to $5.7 billion and management fees rose 12% to $8.0 billion; FRE margin expanded over 100 basis points to a record full-year level.
Strong Investment Performance Across Key Businesses
Infrastructure appreciated 24% for 2025 (8.4% in Q4); corporate private equity up 14% for 2025 (5% in Q4); BXMA composite returned ~13% for 2025 and positive for 23 consecutive quarters.
Credit Platform Momentum and Performance
Total credit AUM of $520 billion, up 15% YoY; full-year non-investment grade private credit gross return 11% and real estate credit 17%. Direct lending realized losses were minimal at ~11 basis points over the last 12 months.
Private Wealth Channel Acceleration
Private wealth fundraising rose 53% YoY to $43 billion in 2025; private wealth AUM grew 16% YoY to over $300 billion. Notable products: BCRED gross sales $3.3 billion in Q4 and record $14 billion gross sales for full year; BXP annualized net return ~17% since inception and $18 billion AUM.
Deployment and Investment Activity
Invested $138 billion across the firm in 2025 (highest level in four years) and closed/signed eight privatizations including the $18 billion WholeLogic acquisition and the $7.2 billion Medline IPO, which traded +40% on day one.
Realizations and Monetizations Accelerating
Net realizations rose 59% YoY in Q4 to $957 million and increased ~50% for the full year to $2.1 billion, driven by several realizations (Resolution Life stake, Las Vegas asset, life sciences royalties, and BXMA crystallizations).
Negative Updates
Real Estate Recovery Is Slow and Values Still Below Prior Cycle
Since the start of the interest-rate cycle (~4 years), private real estate values remain down ~16% while the S&P 500 rose ~75%. Real estate funds saw limited appreciation in 2025 (overall RE appreciated ~1% in Q4 and ~1.5% for the year).
Sector-Specific Real Estate Headwinds
Notable headwinds within real estate included life sciences office and UK student housing, which offset strength from data centers and logistics.
Reliance on One-Time Realizations
Some Q4 and FY results benefitted from one-time monetizations (e.g., Resolution Life stake and Bistro sale), which will not repeat and reduce comparability going forward.
Retail Redemptions and Distribution Sensitivity in Credit
BCRED experienced an uptick in redemptions in Q4 amid headlines and retail nervousness despite continued gross sales; retail demand for some investment-grade private credit products lags institutional interest.
Geopolitical and Macro Uncertainty
Management repeatedly cited tariff uncertainty, geopolitical instability, and the prolonged U.S. government shutdown as sources of market turbulence and near-term uncertainty.
Regulatory and Distribution Friction in Europe
European direct lending (eCred) faces a more complex regulatory and distribution landscape, slowing scale relative to the U.S. opportunity despite positive early traction ($700 million raised in a recent quarter).
Concentration and Sector Risk
Approximately 75% of global equity holdings are concentrated in data centers, logistics, and rental housing — a source of strength but also concentration risk if those sectors weaken.
Company Guidance
Blackstone guided that momentum should continue into 2026, forecasting continued management fee growth and a strong FRE trajectory (after FY‑2025 FRE of $5.7B and management fees of $8.0B, with FRE margin +100 bps in 2025), plus net realizations should remain “strong” (FY realizations $2.1B; Q4 $957M) even without one‑time items; key balance‑sheet and fundraising metrics underpinning this view include Q4 inflows of $71B and FY inflows of ~ $240B, AUM up 13% to $1.275T, nearly $200B of dry powder, DE of $7.1B for 2025 (Q4 DE $2.2B, $1.75/sh), and record segment strength (credit AUM $520B, +15% YoY with >$140B inflows; private wealth AUM >$300B, +16% YoY with Q4 sales >$11B; infrastructure $77B, +40% YoY; BXMA AUM $96B, +14% YoY). Management highlighted fundraising and product rollouts — five new PE drawdown funds targeting >$50B aggregate and expected to be fee‑earning by year‑end, a growing investment‑grade private credit base ($130B, +30% YoY), and continued contributions from perpetual strategies — and characterized the 2026 starting position as one of fee stability with potential upside to FRE margin and strong realization and transaction activity as the deal cycle accelerates.

Blackstone Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong profitability and growth (97% gross margin, 21.55% net margin, 72.9% TTM revenue growth) and positive free-cash-flow growth support the score. Offsetting factors include elevated leverage (debt-to-equity 1.59) and weaker cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income 0.18), plus some pressure in EBIT/EBITDA margins.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Blackstone Group's income statement shows strong performance with a high gross profit margin of 97% and a solid net profit margin of 21.55% for the TTM. The revenue growth rate is impressive at 72.9% TTM, indicating robust expansion. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have slightly decreased compared to previous years, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.59, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity is strong at 32.88%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is moderate, suggesting a balanced asset structure but with room for improvement in reducing leverage.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 11.32% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.18, suggesting potential challenges in converting income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 97.2%, reflecting efficient cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.29B11.37B7.44B7.45B16.85B5.40B
Gross Profit11.79B10.93B7.01B7.13B16.65B5.23B
EBITDA6.41B6.50B3.00B3.53B13.63B2.69B
Net Income2.71B2.78B1.39B1.75B5.86B1.05B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets45.08B43.47B40.29B42.52B41.20B26.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.43B1.97B2.96B4.25B2.12B2.00B
Total Debt12.89B12.29B12.29B13.37B8.71B6.34B
Total Liabilities25.19B23.97B22.21B22.84B19.49B11.68B
Stockholders Equity8.40B8.21B6.82B7.66B9.42B6.65B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.65B3.42B3.83B6.10B3.92B1.82B
Operating Cash Flow3.76B3.48B4.06B6.34B3.99B1.94B
Investing Cash Flow-105.24M-61.41M-229.65M-235.50M-64.32M-166.82M
Financing Cash Flow-3.35B-4.50B-5.05B-3.79B-3.78B-2.24B

Blackstone Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price121.27
Price Trends
50DMA
146.41
Negative
100DMA
148.06
Negative
200DMA
152.06
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-6.08
Positive
RSI
28.55
Positive
STOCH
28.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 121.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 134.96, below the 50-day MA of 146.41, and below the 200-day MA of 152.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.55 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BX.

Blackstone Group Risk Analysis

Blackstone Group disclosed 2 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blackstone Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Blackstone Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$178.19B30.931.92%15.79%-3.85%
70
Outperform
$163.30B34.3435.78%3.02%33.12%19.86%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$92.35B44.279.12%0.56%-33.80%-24.81%
66
Neutral
$43.79B68.342.65%50.70%7.32%
63
Neutral
$18.09B106.8213.14%3.03%25.02%235.70%
59
Neutral
$19.79B25.1812.77%2.30%-24.62%437.16%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BX
Blackstone Group
121.27
-30.63
-20.16%
BLK
BlackRock
1,093.64
159.98
17.13%
KKR
KKR & Co
101.18
-29.19
-22.39%
CG
Carlyle Group
53.23
5.07
10.53%
ARES
Ares Management
123.16
-41.21
-25.07%
TPG
TPG
44.51
-10.26
-18.73%

Blackstone Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Blackstone Group Completes $1.2 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Nov 3, 2025

On November 3, 2025, Blackstone Inc. announced the completion of its offering of $1.2 billion in senior notes through its subsidiary, Blackstone Reg Finance Co. L.L.C. The offering includes $600 million of 4.300% senior notes due 2030 and $600 million of 4.950% senior notes due 2036, with the proceeds intended for general corporate purposes. The notes are unsecured and unsubordinated obligations, fully guaranteed by Blackstone and its subsidiaries. The issuance is part of a strategy to strengthen Blackstone’s financial position and support its operational flexibility, with implications for stakeholders including potential impacts on the company’s credit profile and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (BX) stock is a Hold with a $165.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blackstone Group stock, see the BX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 29, 2026