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BlackRock (BLK)
NYSE:BLK

BlackRock (BLK) AI Stock Analysis

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BLK

BlackRock

(NYSE:BLK)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$1,279.00
▲(13.41% Upside)
BLK scores well primarily on strong financial performance and a notably upbeat earnings call featuring record inflows, strong growth, and increased shareholder returns. Technicals are supportive but not powerful, while valuation (P/E ~32) and expense/margin pressures keep the overall score below the highest tier.
Positive Factors
Scale and market leadership (AUM & net inflows)
Massive scale and sustained net inflows underpin durable fee generation and distribution advantages. $698B of inflows and $14T AUM strengthen client stickiness, cross-sell into higher‑margin products, and create pricing and platform leadership that supports revenue resilience over years.
Technology and data platform growth (Aladdin/ACV)
Rapid, recurring technology and data revenue diversifies income away from pure asset fees. Strong ACV growth indicates sticky, contractually recurring streams that are higher margin and cross‑sellable to institutional clients, improving long‑term revenue stability and margin mix.
Strong cash generation and conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage and high cash conversion provide financial flexibility for buybacks, M&A, and investing in technology/private markets. Strong OCF and FCF ratios reduce refinancing risk and support sustained shareholder returns and strategic investments over multi‑year horizons.
Negative Factors
Institutional index outflows and fee pressure
Large institutional index outflows reflect secular competition in ultra‑low fee passive products. Persistent migration can reduce fee yield and AUM mix, pressuring long‑run revenue per asset unless offset by growth in higher‑fee active, private, or tech offerings.
Rising expenses and compensation growth
Sustained expense and compensation growth can erode operating leverage. If higher incentive pay and integration costs persist, margin expansion from higher recurring fees may be offset, making long‑term margin trajectory dependent on disciplined cost control and realized synergies.
Private credit/BDC normalization risk and flow volatility
Normalization of private credit defaults and BDC redemptions increases performance and liquidity risk in alternatives. This can dampen fundraising, reduce fee generation in private markets, and increase provisioning or reputation risk, challenging growth targets tied to private assets.

BlackRock (BLK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BlackRock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBlackRock, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to institutional, intermediary, and individual investors including corporate, public, union, and industry pension plans, insurance companies, third-party mutual funds, endowments, public institutions, governments, foundations, charities, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, official institutions, and banks. It also provides global risk management and advisory services. The firm manages separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced portfolios. It also launches and manages open-end and closed-end mutual funds, offshore funds, unit trusts, and alternative investment vehicles including structured funds. The firm launches equity, fixed income, balanced, and real estate mutual funds. It also launches equity, fixed income, balanced, currency, commodity, and multi-asset exchange traded funds. The firm also launches and manages hedge funds. It invests in the public equity, fixed income, real estate, currency, commodity, and alternative markets across the globe. The firm primarily invests in growth and value stocks of small-cap, mid-cap, SMID-cap, large-cap, and multi-cap companies. It also invests in dividend-paying equity securities. The firm invests in investment grade municipal securities, government securities including securities issued or guaranteed by a government or a government agency or instrumentality, corporate bonds, and asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. It employs fundamental and quantitative analysis with a focus on bottom-up and top-down approach to make its investments. The firm employs liquidity, asset allocation, balanced, real estate, and alternative strategies to make its investments. In real estate sector, it seeks to invest in Poland and Germany. The firm benchmarks the performance of its portfolios against various S&P, Russell, Barclays, MSCI, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch indices. BlackRock, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in New York City with additional offices in Boston, Massachusetts; London, United Kingdom; Gurgaon, India; Hong Kong; Greenwich, Connecticut; Princeton, New Jersey; Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Sydney, Australia; Taipei, Taiwan; Singapore; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Washington, District of Columbia; Toronto, Canada; Wilmington, Delaware; and San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlackRock generates revenue primarily through its asset management fees, which are charged as a percentage of assets under management (AUM). The company earns management fees from a variety of investment products, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and separate accounts. Additionally, BlackRock earns performance fees based on the investment performance of certain funds. The firm has a significant revenue stream from its iShares ETFs, which have become one of the leading ETF providers globally. Aside from management and performance fees, BlackRock also generates revenue from technology services provided through its Aladdin platform, which is used by other financial institutions for risk management and investment analysis. Strategic partnerships with various financial institutions and a strong global distribution network further contribute to BlackRock's earnings.

BlackRock Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Assets Under Management
Assets Under Management
Reflects the total value of assets managed, indicating the scale of operations and investor trust, which are key to revenue generation and market influence.
Chart InsightsBlackRock's AUM has surged to a record $13.5 trillion, driven by robust net inflows and strategic acquisitions. The recent earnings call highlights a 10% annualized organic base fee growth, the highest in four years, fueled by strong demand for ETFs and private markets. Despite higher expenses impacting margins, the company's strategic focus on digital assets and tokenization suggests a forward-thinking approach to expanding investment opportunities. This momentum, coupled with successful acquisitions, positions BlackRock for sustained growth, although challenges in non-operating income remain a concern.
Data provided by:The Fly

BlackRock Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 15, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, broad-based growth across net inflows ($698B), revenue (+19% YoY to $24B), organic base fee growth (9% FY, 12% in Q4), record iShares flows ($527B) and technology/ACV expansion, supported by strategic acquisitions (GIP, HPS, Preqin) and meaningful shareholder returns (record $5B returned, 10% dividend increase, $1.8B repurchase plan). Headline weaknesses included institutional index outflows ($119B), higher expenses (+19%) and a modest reported margin compression driven by performance fees and related compensation, plus a $106M mark-to-market loss on Circle and some private credit/BDC flow volatility. Overall, positive momentum and durable platform strength outweigh the cited challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Inflows
Full year 2025 net inflows of $698 billion (nearly $700 billion), including $342 billion in Q4; nearly $2.5 trillion of net inflows over the last 5 years.
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth
Full year revenue $24.0 billion, up 19% year-over-year; operating income $9.6 billion, up 18%; EPS $48.09, up 10% (Q4 EPS $13.16, up 10%).
Robust Organic Base Fee Growth
Full year organic base fee growth 9%; BlackRock delivered 6%+ organic base fee growth in each quarter of 2025 and finished the year with 12% organic base fee growth in Q4.
iShares Record Flows and Growth
iShares net inflows of $527 billion in 2025 (record); 12% organic asset growth and 13% organic base fee growth for iShares; active ETFs drove >$50 billion in net inflows and DYNF led industry active ETF inflows with $14 billion.
AUM Milestone and Base Fee Run Rate Expansion
AUM reached a new high at $14 trillion; base fees run rate entering 2026 approximately 35% higher than 2024 and ~50% higher than 2023; base fees approaching $21 billion (13% higher than 2025).
Technology, Data and ACV Growth
Full quarter and full year technology services and subscription revenue each increased 24% YoY; ACV increased 31% YoY including Preqin and 16% organically; technology ACV growth (organic) cited at 16%.
Private Markets and Alternatives Momentum
Scaled private markets platform delivered $40 billion of full year net inflows led by private credit and infrastructure; BlackRock now manages >$675 billion in alternatives client assets and targets $400 billion gross private markets fundraising through 2030.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Actions
Returned a record $5.0 billion to shareholders in 2025 (dividends + repurchases); Board approved 10% increase to Q1 2026 dividend per share and raised planned share repurchases to $1.8 billion for 2026 plus authorization to repurchase an additional 7 million shares.
Margin Expansion on Recurring Fee Earnings
Reported as-adjusted operating margin of 45% in Q4 and 44.1% for full year; excluding performance fees and related compensation, Q4 adjusted operating margin would have been 45.5% (up 30 bps YoY) and full year would have been 44.9% (up 60 bps YoY), indicating underlying operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Institutional Index Outflows
Institutional index strategies experienced net outflows of $119 billion in 2025, driven mainly by redemptions from low-fee index equity strategies.
Expense Growth and Compensation
Total expenses increased 19% in 2025; full year employee compensation and benefit expense up 20% (driven by higher incentive compensation and onboarding of acquired employees); G&A up 15%, reflecting M&A and higher tech investment spend.
Slight Operating Margin Compression (Reported)
Reported as‑adjusted operating margin decreased ~40 bps for full year and ~50 bps for Q4 year-over-year (driven in part by performance fees and related compensation), though margins on recurring fee-related earnings expanded.
Nonoperating Investment Losses
Q4 nonoperating net investment losses of $106 million, primarily due to a noncash mark-to-market loss on the minority stake in Circle; BlackRock retains ~1.1 million Circle shares which will continue to be marked through investment income.
HLEND/BDC Flow Volatility and Redemptions
HLEND had $1.1 billion gross subscriptions in Q4 but experienced higher redemptions (4.1%) in the quarter, with the company noting seasonal redemptions, media-driven profit taking and yield expectations as factors.
Private Credit/BDC Normalization Risk
Discussion of private credit/default trends: while conditions were described as generally stable, management acknowledged normalized (higher) default rates versus the post‑GFC low environment and highlighted potential credit stress among smaller borrowers financed at peak valuations.
Fee Yield and Securities Lending Variability
On an equivalent day-count basis, annualized effective fee rate was ~0.1 basis point lower vs Q3, primarily due to higher securities lending revenue in Q3 from specials, signaling some variability in fee yields quarter-to-quarter.
Company Guidance
The company provided explicit near‑ and medium‑term guidance including a 10% increase to the first‑quarter 2026 dividend, a Board‑authorized repurchase of an additional 7 million shares and a plan to repurchase roughly $1.8 billion of shares in 2026 (after returning a record $5.0 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $1.6 billion for the full year and $500 million in Q4); it expects an as‑adjusted tax run rate of about 25% for 2026 (Q4 as‑adjusted tax ~20%), anticipates mid‑single‑digit G&A growth after annualizing HPS and Preqin, and expects headcount to be broadly flat in 2026; operational targets include maintaining an adjusted operating margin of 45% or greater (45% in Q4, 44.1% for FY25), sustaining organic base fee growth more consistently in the 6–7%+ range (9% FY25, 12% in Q4), and expanding technology ACV (ACV +31% YoY including Preqin, +16% organic); longer‑term ambitions reiterated include raising $400 billion of gross private markets fundraising through 2030, targeting certain new franchises (private markets to insurance/wealth, digital assets, active ETFs) to be ~$500 million revenue generators within five years, and mobilizing an initial $30 billion of AIP equity (potential to reach ~$100 billion including debt).

BlackRock Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong profitability (gross margin consistently >50%, net margin ~30%) and positive TTM revenue growth (6.08%). Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.041) supports resilience, and cash conversion is strong (operating cash flow to net income 1.87; FCF to net income 0.92). Offsets include slight EBIT margin pressure and a decline in operating cash flow versus prior periods.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
BlackRock's income statement shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin above 50% and a net profit margin around 30%. The company has demonstrated a solid revenue growth rate of 6.08% in the TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased from previous years, suggesting some pressure on operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a robust financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.041 in the TTM, indicating minimal leverage risk. The return on equity is healthy at 13.12%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly provided, which limits a full assessment of asset financing.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals strong free cash flow growth of 1.26% in the TTM, and a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.87, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also robust at 0.92, reflecting solid cash conversion. However, the operating cash flow has decreased compared to previous periods, which could be a concern if the trend continues.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue22.89B20.41B17.86B17.87B19.37B16.20B
Gross Profit11.82B10.09B8.58B8.68B9.82B8.27B
EBITDA9.10B8.21B6.77B6.90B7.90B6.08B
Net Income6.10B6.37B5.50B5.18B5.90B4.93B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets162.68B138.62B123.21B117.63B152.65B176.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments12.60B14.59B10.61B8.75B9.32B8.66B
Total Debt15.04B14.22B9.70B8.49B9.32B8.02B
Total Liabilities100.83B89.26B81.97B78.84B113.75B139.33B
Stockholders Equity55.52B47.49B39.35B37.74B37.69B35.28B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.93B4.70B3.82B4.42B4.60B3.55B
Operating Cash Flow4.27B4.96B4.17B4.96B4.94B3.74B
Investing Cash Flow-7.28B-3.00B-959.00M-1.13B-1.94B-254.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.12B2.24B-1.99B-5.44B-2.29B244.00M

BlackRock Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1127.78
Price Trends
50DMA
1078.51
Positive
100DMA
1100.28
Positive
200DMA
1059.54
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
11.87
Positive
RSI
55.64
Neutral
STOCH
32.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1127.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1110.56, above the 50-day MA of 1078.51, and above the 200-day MA of 1059.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.87 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLK.

BlackRock Risk Analysis

BlackRock disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BlackRock reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BlackRock Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$182.99B31.771.92%15.79%-3.85%
78
Outperform
$81.83B16.0712.96%1.71%4.22%51.01%
70
Outperform
$179.06B37.9335.78%3.02%33.12%19.86%
70
Outperform
$48.97B63.8218.64%2.65%50.70%7.32%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$104.08B49.758.73%0.56%-33.80%-24.81%
59
Neutral
$21.82B33.6911.85%2.30%-24.62%437.16%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BLK
BlackRock
1,127.78
134.39
13.53%
BK
Bank of New York Mellon
121.49
38.06
45.61%
KKR
KKR & Co
114.98
-47.57
-29.26%
BX
Blackstone Group
142.94
-25.40
-15.09%
CG
Carlyle Group
59.50
6.73
12.75%
ARES
Ares Management
151.69
-39.55
-20.68%

BlackRock Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
BlackRock Adds Gregg Lemkau as Independent Board Director
Positive
Jan 27, 2026

On January 27, 2026, BlackRock’s Board of Directors elected Gregg R. Lemkau, Co-Chief Executive Officer of merchant bank BDT & MSD Partners and Chairman of DFO Management, as an independent director, expanding the Board to 19 members, 16 of whom are independent and including six new independent directors added since 2020. BlackRock highlighted Lemkau’s decades of experience in investment banking, capital markets, and advisory work at BDT & MSD and Goldman Sachs as an important addition to the Board’s deep industry expertise and diverse perspectives, underscoring the firm’s focus on governance and board composition to support its next phase of growth and long-term strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLK) stock is a Buy with a $1324.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackRock stock, see the BLK Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
BlackRock Launches Executive Carry Program for Senior Leaders
Positive
Jan 16, 2026

On January 13, 2026, BlackRock’s Management Development and Compensation Committee adopted an Executive Carry Program, a new carry-based incentive plan for selected senior executives, excluding the CEO, that ties a portion of their compensation to the performance of a pool of flagship private markets investment funds. The program is designed to align executives’ long-term incentives with fund-level performance, investor outcomes and shareholder value by providing at-risk, performance-based awards that have no value at grant and only pay out through future carry distributions if participating funds achieve specified returns over an extended period. Awards will be allocated through an aggregator partnership that holds carry rights in a subset of BlackRock’s large private markets funds across asset classes, will vest over five years with no vesting until the third year, and are subject to forfeiture upon most terminations as well as to clawback, holdback and restrictive covenant provisions. The move builds on BlackRock’s longstanding use of carry-based incentives, including a similar component introduced for the CEO in 2025, and is intended to strengthen the firm’s ability to attract, retain and motivate key senior talent in a competitive market while further aligning compensation with the growth and strategic importance of its private markets platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLK) stock is a Buy with a $1234.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackRock stock, see the BLK Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
BlackRock Reports Record Inflows, Hikes Dividend and Buybacks
Positive
Jan 15, 2026

On January 15, 2026, BlackRock reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting record full-year net inflows of $698 billion, including $342 billion in the fourth quarter, driving assets under management to $14 trillion and 12% annualized organic base fee growth in the quarter. Full-year revenue rose 19%, supported by market appreciation, 9% organic base fee growth over the past twelve months, fees related to the GIP and HPS transactions, and higher technology and subscription revenues, while GAAP operating income and diluted EPS fell 7% and 16%, respectively, due to noncash acquisition-related expenses and a noncash charitable contribution, which were excluded from adjusted results. On an adjusted basis, operating income increased 18% and diluted EPS rose 10%, even as lower nonoperating income and a higher diluted share count weighed on earnings, and BlackRock returned $5 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $1.6 billion of share repurchases. Reflecting management’s confidence in the firm’s growth and margin trajectory and its expanding pipeline across public and private markets, technology, and wealth channels, the board approved a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend to $5.73 per share, effective with the March 24, 2026 payment, and authorized an additional 7 million shares for repurchase under the existing buyback program, underscoring a strategy focused on capital returns and long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLK) stock is a Hold with a $1209.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackRock stock, see the BLK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 28, 2026