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BlackRock Inc. (BLK)
NYSE:BLK

BlackRock (BLK) AI Stock Analysis

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BLK

BlackRock

(NYSE:BLK)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$1,209.00
▲(10.53% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
BLK scores well on profitability and balance sheet strength, and the earnings call reinforced strong business momentum and shareholder returns. The overall score is held back primarily by the reported TTM cash flow/FCF collapsing to zero, alongside only mixed technical momentum and a relatively high P/E with a modest yield.
Positive Factors
Scale & Market Position
BlackRock's $14 trillion AUM and $698B of annual net inflows create durable scale advantages: stable base fee revenue, superior distribution, and bargaining power with partners. Scale supports cross-selling, product leadership in iShares, and resilience in fee generation over several years.
Technology & ACV Growth
Rapid growth in technology ACV and subscription revenue diversifies recurring fees beyond asset management. Aladdin and data offerings increase client stickiness, margin leverage, and cross-sell opportunities, making revenue less sensitive to market returns and more stable over multi-year horizons.
Conservative Balance Sheet
Very low leverage and a strong equity base give BlackRock high financial resilience through market cycles, reducing refinancing and solvency risk. This supports consistent capital returns, acquisitive optionality, and the ability to absorb temporary investment losses without threatening core operations.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Quality
Reported TTM operating and free cash flow of zero is a material concern if persistent, signaling timing, reporting or operational stress. Weak cash conversion undermines the sustainability of dividends, buybacks, and organic investment funding, increasing reliance on nonoperating items or balance-sheet moves.
Rising Expenses & Margin Pressure
Sustained expense growth from acquisitions, onboarding and higher incentive pay can compress reported margins. If revenue growth slows or performance fees normalize, elevated fixed and compensation costs may erode operating leverage and reduce durable recurring margin expansion.
Institutional Index Outflows
Large institutional index outflows highlight vulnerability in low-fee passive mandates to client rebalancing and competitiveness. Persistent outflows could lower fee yields, alter AUM mix toward lower-margin products, and force greater dependence on alternatives and technology for growth.

BlackRock (BLK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BlackRock Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBlackRock, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to institutional, intermediary, and individual investors including corporate, public, union, and industry pension plans, insurance companies, third-party mutual funds, endowments, public institutions, governments, foundations, charities, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, official institutions, and banks. It also provides global risk management and advisory services. The firm manages separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced portfolios. It also launches and manages open-end and closed-end mutual funds, offshore funds, unit trusts, and alternative investment vehicles including structured funds. The firm launches equity, fixed income, balanced, and real estate mutual funds. It also launches equity, fixed income, balanced, currency, commodity, and multi-asset exchange traded funds. The firm also launches and manages hedge funds. It invests in the public equity, fixed income, real estate, currency, commodity, and alternative markets across the globe. The firm primarily invests in growth and value stocks of small-cap, mid-cap, SMID-cap, large-cap, and multi-cap companies. It also invests in dividend-paying equity securities. The firm invests in investment grade municipal securities, government securities including securities issued or guaranteed by a government or a government agency or instrumentality, corporate bonds, and asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. It employs fundamental and quantitative analysis with a focus on bottom-up and top-down approach to make its investments. The firm employs liquidity, asset allocation, balanced, real estate, and alternative strategies to make its investments. In real estate sector, it seeks to invest in Poland and Germany. The firm benchmarks the performance of its portfolios against various S&P, Russell, Barclays, MSCI, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch indices. BlackRock, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in New York City with additional offices in Boston, Massachusetts; London, United Kingdom; Gurgaon, India; Hong Kong; Greenwich, Connecticut; Princeton, New Jersey; Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Sydney, Australia; Taipei, Taiwan; Singapore; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Washington, District of Columbia; Toronto, Canada; Wilmington, Delaware; and San Francisco, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlackRock generates revenue primarily through its asset management fees, which are charged as a percentage of assets under management (AUM). The company earns management fees from a variety of investment products, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and separate accounts. Additionally, BlackRock earns performance fees based on the investment performance of certain funds. The firm has a significant revenue stream from its iShares ETFs, which have become one of the leading ETF providers globally. Aside from management and performance fees, BlackRock also generates revenue from technology services provided through its Aladdin platform, which is used by other financial institutions for risk management and investment analysis. Strategic partnerships with various financial institutions and a strong global distribution network further contribute to BlackRock's earnings.

BlackRock Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Assets Under Management
Assets Under Management
Reflects the total value of assets managed, indicating the scale of operations and investor trust, which are key to revenue generation and market influence.
Chart InsightsBlackRock's AUM has surged to a record $13.5 trillion, driven by robust net inflows and strategic acquisitions. The recent earnings call highlights a 10% annualized organic base fee growth, the highest in four years, fueled by strong demand for ETFs and private markets. Despite higher expenses impacting margins, the company's strategic focus on digital assets and tokenization suggests a forward-thinking approach to expanding investment opportunities. This momentum, coupled with successful acquisitions, positions BlackRock for sustained growth, although challenges in non-operating income remain a concern.
Data provided by:The Fly

BlackRock Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 15, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong, broad-based growth across net inflows ($698B), revenue (+19% YoY to $24B), organic base fee growth (9% FY, 12% in Q4), record iShares flows ($527B) and technology/ACV expansion, supported by strategic acquisitions (GIP, HPS, Preqin) and meaningful shareholder returns (record $5B returned, 10% dividend increase, $1.8B repurchase plan). Headline weaknesses included institutional index outflows ($119B), higher expenses (+19%) and a modest reported margin compression driven by performance fees and related compensation, plus a $106M mark-to-market loss on Circle and some private credit/BDC flow volatility. Overall, positive momentum and durable platform strength outweigh the cited challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Inflows
Full year 2025 net inflows of $698 billion (nearly $700 billion), including $342 billion in Q4; nearly $2.5 trillion of net inflows over the last 5 years.
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth
Full year revenue $24.0 billion, up 19% year-over-year; operating income $9.6 billion, up 18%; EPS $48.09, up 10% (Q4 EPS $13.16, up 10%).
Robust Organic Base Fee Growth
Full year organic base fee growth 9%; BlackRock delivered 6%+ organic base fee growth in each quarter of 2025 and finished the year with 12% organic base fee growth in Q4.
iShares Record Flows and Growth
iShares net inflows of $527 billion in 2025 (record); 12% organic asset growth and 13% organic base fee growth for iShares; active ETFs drove >$50 billion in net inflows and DYNF led industry active ETF inflows with $14 billion.
AUM Milestone and Base Fee Run Rate Expansion
AUM reached a new high at $14 trillion; base fees run rate entering 2026 approximately 35% higher than 2024 and ~50% higher than 2023; base fees approaching $21 billion (13% higher than 2025).
Technology, Data and ACV Growth
Full quarter and full year technology services and subscription revenue each increased 24% YoY; ACV increased 31% YoY including Preqin and 16% organically; technology ACV growth (organic) cited at 16%.
Private Markets and Alternatives Momentum
Scaled private markets platform delivered $40 billion of full year net inflows led by private credit and infrastructure; BlackRock now manages >$675 billion in alternatives client assets and targets $400 billion gross private markets fundraising through 2030.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Actions
Returned a record $5.0 billion to shareholders in 2025 (dividends + repurchases); Board approved 10% increase to Q1 2026 dividend per share and raised planned share repurchases to $1.8 billion for 2026 plus authorization to repurchase an additional 7 million shares.
Margin Expansion on Recurring Fee Earnings
Reported as-adjusted operating margin of 45% in Q4 and 44.1% for full year; excluding performance fees and related compensation, Q4 adjusted operating margin would have been 45.5% (up 30 bps YoY) and full year would have been 44.9% (up 60 bps YoY), indicating underlying operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Institutional Index Outflows
Institutional index strategies experienced net outflows of $119 billion in 2025, driven mainly by redemptions from low-fee index equity strategies.
Expense Growth and Compensation
Total expenses increased 19% in 2025; full year employee compensation and benefit expense up 20% (driven by higher incentive compensation and onboarding of acquired employees); G&A up 15%, reflecting M&A and higher tech investment spend.
Slight Operating Margin Compression (Reported)
Reported as‑adjusted operating margin decreased ~40 bps for full year and ~50 bps for Q4 year-over-year (driven in part by performance fees and related compensation), though margins on recurring fee-related earnings expanded.
Nonoperating Investment Losses
Q4 nonoperating net investment losses of $106 million, primarily due to a noncash mark-to-market loss on the minority stake in Circle; BlackRock retains ~1.1 million Circle shares which will continue to be marked through investment income.
HLEND/BDC Flow Volatility and Redemptions
HLEND had $1.1 billion gross subscriptions in Q4 but experienced higher redemptions (4.1%) in the quarter, with the company noting seasonal redemptions, media-driven profit taking and yield expectations as factors.
Private Credit/BDC Normalization Risk
Discussion of private credit/default trends: while conditions were described as generally stable, management acknowledged normalized (higher) default rates versus the post‑GFC low environment and highlighted potential credit stress among smaller borrowers financed at peak valuations.
Fee Yield and Securities Lending Variability
On an equivalent day-count basis, annualized effective fee rate was ~0.1 basis point lower vs Q3, primarily due to higher securities lending revenue in Q3 from specials, signaling some variability in fee yields quarter-to-quarter.
Company Guidance
The company provided explicit near‑ and medium‑term guidance including a 10% increase to the first‑quarter 2026 dividend, a Board‑authorized repurchase of an additional 7 million shares and a plan to repurchase roughly $1.8 billion of shares in 2026 (after returning a record $5.0 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $1.6 billion for the full year and $500 million in Q4); it expects an as‑adjusted tax run rate of about 25% for 2026 (Q4 as‑adjusted tax ~20%), anticipates mid‑single‑digit G&A growth after annualizing HPS and Preqin, and expects headcount to be broadly flat in 2026; operational targets include maintaining an adjusted operating margin of 45% or greater (45% in Q4, 44.1% for FY25), sustaining organic base fee growth more consistently in the 6–7%+ range (9% FY25, 12% in Q4), and expanding technology ACV (ACV +31% YoY including Preqin, +16% organic); longer‑term ambitions reiterated include raising $400 billion of gross private markets fundraising through 2030, targeting certain new franchises (private markets to insurance/wealth, digital assets, active ETFs) to be ~$500 million revenue generators within five years, and mobilizing an initial $30 billion of AIP equity (potential to reach ~$100 billion including debt).

BlackRock Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong profitability and improving revenue growth (TTM revenue ~+5.7%) supported by a very conservative balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.04). The major offset is cash generation quality: TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow are reported as 0 (FCF growth -100%), which is a material red flag despite historically strong cash conversion.
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
BLK shows strong and consistent profitability with healthy margins (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin ~23% and EBIT margin ~32%). Revenue has resumed growth (TTM revenue up ~5.7% vs. flat-to-down in 2022–2023), signaling improving momentum. The main weakness is margin compression versus 2024 (TTM net margin and EBITDA margin are notably lower than 2024), indicating some mix/expense pressure even as topline improves.
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
The balance sheet looks very conservative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.04) and substantial equity base, which supports resilience through market cycles. Returns remain solid (TTM return on equity ~11%), though down from the mid-teens levels seen in 2021–2024, suggesting profitability on capital has moderated. Overall, leverage risk appears limited based on the provided debt and equity figures.
Cash Flow
28
Negative
Cash generation quality is the key concern in the latest period: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are reported as 0, and free cash flow growth is -100%, which breaks the otherwise strong history. In 2020–2024, operating cash flow was consistently robust (~$3.7B–$5.0B) and free cash flow tracked net income closely (roughly ~0.89–0.95 of net income), but the TTM figures introduce a major red flag (potentially volatility, timing, or data/reporting effects) that cannot be ignored.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue24.22B20.41B17.86B17.87B19.37B
Gross Profit13.45B10.09B8.58B8.68B9.82B
EBITDA8.47B8.21B6.77B6.90B7.90B
Net Income5.55B6.37B5.50B5.18B5.90B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets170.00B138.62B123.21B117.63B152.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments11.47B14.59B10.61B8.75B9.32B
Total Debt2.23B14.22B9.70B8.49B9.32B
Total Liabilities108.46B89.26B81.97B78.84B113.75B
Stockholders Equity55.89B47.49B39.35B37.74B37.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.004.70B3.82B4.42B4.60B
Operating Cash Flow0.004.96B4.17B4.96B4.94B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-3.00B-959.00M-1.13B-1.94B
Financing Cash Flow0.002.24B-1.99B-5.44B-2.29B

BlackRock Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1093.78
Price Trends
50DMA
1092.47
Positive
100DMA
1091.87
Positive
200DMA
1076.75
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.90
Negative
RSI
51.67
Neutral
STOCH
70.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BLK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1093.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1085.44, above the 50-day MA of 1092.47, and above the 200-day MA of 1076.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -3.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BLK.

BlackRock Risk Analysis

BlackRock disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BlackRock reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BlackRock Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$80.21B15.7512.96%1.71%4.22%51.01%
71
Outperform
$176.36B30.621.92%15.79%-3.85%
70
Outperform
$143.04B30.0835.78%3.02%33.12%19.86%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$85.33B40.919.12%0.56%-33.80%-24.81%
64
Neutral
$38.30B59.762.65%50.70%7.32%
59
Neutral
$18.34B23.3412.77%2.30%-24.62%437.16%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BLK
BlackRock
1,093.78
167.87
18.13%
BK
Bank of New York Mellon
120.31
35.21
41.38%
KKR
KKR & Co
96.63
-34.75
-26.45%
BX
Blackstone Group
118.22
-33.99
-22.33%
CG
Carlyle Group
51.55
4.26
9.01%
ARES
Ares Management
119.18
-43.45
-26.72%

BlackRock Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
BlackRock Adds Gregg Lemkau as Independent Board Director
Positive
Jan 27, 2026

On January 27, 2026, BlackRock’s Board of Directors elected Gregg R. Lemkau, Co-Chief Executive Officer of merchant bank BDT & MSD Partners and Chairman of DFO Management, as an independent director, expanding the Board to 19 members, 16 of whom are independent and including six new independent directors added since 2020. BlackRock highlighted Lemkau’s decades of experience in investment banking, capital markets, and advisory work at BDT & MSD and Goldman Sachs as an important addition to the Board’s deep industry expertise and diverse perspectives, underscoring the firm’s focus on governance and board composition to support its next phase of growth and long-term strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLK) stock is a Buy with a $1324.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackRock stock, see the BLK Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
BlackRock Launches Executive Carry Program for Senior Leaders
Positive
Jan 16, 2026

On January 13, 2026, BlackRock’s Management Development and Compensation Committee adopted an Executive Carry Program, a new carry-based incentive plan for selected senior executives, excluding the CEO, that ties a portion of their compensation to the performance of a pool of flagship private markets investment funds. The program is designed to align executives’ long-term incentives with fund-level performance, investor outcomes and shareholder value by providing at-risk, performance-based awards that have no value at grant and only pay out through future carry distributions if participating funds achieve specified returns over an extended period. Awards will be allocated through an aggregator partnership that holds carry rights in a subset of BlackRock’s large private markets funds across asset classes, will vest over five years with no vesting until the third year, and are subject to forfeiture upon most terminations as well as to clawback, holdback and restrictive covenant provisions. The move builds on BlackRock’s longstanding use of carry-based incentives, including a similar component introduced for the CEO in 2025, and is intended to strengthen the firm’s ability to attract, retain and motivate key senior talent in a competitive market while further aligning compensation with the growth and strategic importance of its private markets platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLK) stock is a Buy with a $1234.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackRock stock, see the BLK Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
BlackRock Reports Record Inflows, Hikes Dividend and Buybacks
Positive
Jan 15, 2026

On January 15, 2026, BlackRock reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting record full-year net inflows of $698 billion, including $342 billion in the fourth quarter, driving assets under management to $14 trillion and 12% annualized organic base fee growth in the quarter. Full-year revenue rose 19%, supported by market appreciation, 9% organic base fee growth over the past twelve months, fees related to the GIP and HPS transactions, and higher technology and subscription revenues, while GAAP operating income and diluted EPS fell 7% and 16%, respectively, due to noncash acquisition-related expenses and a noncash charitable contribution, which were excluded from adjusted results. On an adjusted basis, operating income increased 18% and diluted EPS rose 10%, even as lower nonoperating income and a higher diluted share count weighed on earnings, and BlackRock returned $5 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $1.6 billion of share repurchases. Reflecting management’s confidence in the firm’s growth and margin trajectory and its expanding pipeline across public and private markets, technology, and wealth channels, the board approved a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend to $5.73 per share, effective with the March 24, 2026 payment, and authorized an additional 7 million shares for repurchase under the existing buyback program, underscoring a strategy focused on capital returns and long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (BLK) stock is a Hold with a $1209.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BlackRock stock, see the BLK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 26, 2026