Carlyle Group (CG)
NASDAQ:CG
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Carlyle Group
(NASDAQ:CG)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$49.00
▼(-6.99% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is held back primarily by uneven multi-year financial quality (especially cash-flow volatility) and weak technicals with the stock trading below key moving averages. Offsetting these are a notably positive operating narrative from the latest earnings call (record FRE, strong inflows and margin progress) and supportive corporate actions/targets, while valuation is reasonable but not distinctly cheap.
Positive Factors
High and improving fee-related earnings (FRE)
Sizable, expanding FRE and a 47% FRE margin indicate a strong, recurring fee engine. Durable fee income supports predictable cash available for distributions, reinvestment and strategic growth, reducing reliance on volatile realized gains for core profitability over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent cash generation
Volatile operating and free cash flow across years shows cash conversion depends heavily on timing of realizations and working-capital items. This inconsistency reduces certainty around self-funded buybacks/dividends and increases reliance on external funding or asset sales during weaker exit markets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and improving fee-related earnings (FRE)
Sizable, expanding FRE and a 47% FRE margin indicate a strong, recurring fee engine. Durable fee income supports predictable cash available for distributions, reinvestment and strategic growth, reducing reliance on volatile realized gains for core profitability over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Carlyle Group (CG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.08B
Dividend Yield2.3%
Average Volume (3M)3.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.3
Beta (1Y)1.72
Revenue Growth-9.67%
EPS Growth-21.10%
CountryUS
Employees2,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.01
Shares Outstanding361,171,080
10 Day Avg. Volume3,006,022
30 Day Avg. Volume3,055,734
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.25
Price to Book (P/B)3.69
Price to Sales (P/S)4.34
P/FCF Ratio15.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.07
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.63Price Target Upside16.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)4.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.48B
Carlyle Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Carlyle primarily makes money by earning fees and performance-based income for managing investment funds and related vehicles on behalf of clients. (1) Management fees: Carlyle charges recurring fees based on committed capital during an investment...
Carlyle Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong, broad-based operating momentum across Carlyle: record FRE, margins, AUM, inflows, deployment, and realized proceeds, with standout growth at AlpInvest and Global Credit and notable IPO leadership (e.g., Medline). Management acknowledged recent short-term market volatility and the dependency of future realizations on market conditions, but emphasized durable franchise positioning, strong balance sheet, and strategic investments (wealth, credit, secondaries). Overall positives materially outweigh the manageable near-term market and timing risks.Positive Updates
Record Financial Results and FRE Growth
Fee-related earnings (FRE) were a record $1.24 billion in 2025, up 12% year over year, with a record FRE margin of 47% (from 46% prior year). Total fee revenues were a record $2.6 billion for the full year, up 10% organic.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Market Volatility and Fragility
Management noted recent market volatility and 'jitters' over the last few days, with credit spreads moving somewhat wider and potential fragility after record-high equity markets, creating short-term uncertainty for exit markets and monetization momentum into 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Results and FRE Growth
Fee-related earnings (FRE) were a record $1.24 billion in 2025, up 12% year over year, with a record FRE margin of 47% (from 46% prior year). Total fee revenues were a record $2.6 billion for the full year, up 10% organic.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said they enter 2026 with “strong momentum” and expect continued growth, expanding FRE margins and a more active monetization backdrop, with multi‑year financial targets to be disclosed at a shareholder update on Feb 26; they pointed to 2025 results that underpin that guidance — record FRE of $1.24B (up 12% organic), FRE margin 47% (from 46%), total fee revenues $2.6B (up 10% organic), DE $1.7B ($4.20/sh, +11%), inflows $54B (vs. original $40B target, +32% YoY), deployment $54B (+25%+ YoY), realized proceeds $34B (~+20% YoY), $88B of available capital, returned $18B to investors and $1.2B to shareholders, AlpInvest FRE $274M (+~60%) with net accrued carry $656M (+21% YoY), Global Credit FRE $402M (+21%) with CLO inflows $7B (≈+20%) and 39 CLOs priced, Evergreen wealth inflows and AUM more than doubled with wealth headcount up ~50%, a balance sheet with $2B cash and >$3B investments and ~ $3B of net accrued carry (≈$23/share pretax) — all driving management’s expectation of continued fundraising, deployment, realizations and margin expansion in 2026.Carlyle Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.90B | 4.09B | 1.87B | 3.68B | 5.82B |
| Gross Profit | 3.23B | 3.40B | 1.32B | 3.36B | 5.53B |
| EBITDA | 1.34B | 1.58B | -420.30M | 1.72B | 4.08B |
| Net Income | 808.70M | 1.02B | -608.40M | 1.23B | 2.97B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 29.12B | 23.10B | 21.18B | 21.40B | 21.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.21B | 2.10B | 1.79B | 1.57B | 2.62B |
| Total Debt | 13.89B | 9.50B | 9.26B | 8.68B | 8.50B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.06B | 16.76B | 15.39B | 14.58B | 15.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.76B | 5.61B | 5.19B | 6.22B | 5.28B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.36B | -837.20M | 138.30M | -419.90M | 1.75B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.46B | -759.50M | 204.90M | -379.30M | 1.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.25B | -77.60M | -43.60M | -828.80M | -32.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.28B | 682.80M | -99.60M | 114.80M | -242.50M |
Carlyle Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
52.68
Price Trends
50.23
Positive
54.80
Negative
57.13
Negative
Market Momentum
0.42
Negative
63.13
Neutral
82.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 52.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.21, above the 50-day MA of 50.23, and below the 200-day MA of 57.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CG.
Carlyle Group Risk Analysis
Carlyle Group disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlyle Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carlyle Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $38.68B | 66.62 | 12.01% | 2.65% | 53.25% | -15.15% | |
69 Neutral | $153.31B | 34.66 | 36.16% | 3.02% | 20.63% | 17.98% | |
68 Neutral | $15.20B | 99.93 | 3.43% | 5.45% | 19.26% | -20.10% | |
68 Neutral | $16.76B | -13.11 | 16.10% | 3.03% | 33.56% | 6716.41% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
60 Neutral | $18.08B | 26.29 | 14.18% | 2.30% | -9.67% | -21.10% | |
57 Neutral | $93.02B | 24.79 | 8.15% | 0.56% | -13.38% | -27.58% |
* Financial Sector Average
CG
Carlyle Group
49.44
9.73
24.50%
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Carlyle Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Carlyle Unveils 2028 Growth Roadmap and Buyback Plan
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Carlyle used its 2026 Shareholder Update to outline a new three-year growth roadmap, setting targets for Fee Related Earnings of more than $1.9 billion, over $200 billion of inflows, and Distributable Earnings per common shar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.