Carlyle Group (CG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.82B
• Dividend Yield: 2.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.77M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.75
• Revenue Growth: -24.62%
• EPS Growth: 437.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,300
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.96
• Shares Outstanding: 360,410,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,877,042
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,766,113
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.43
• P/FCF Ratio: -21.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.64
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.69
• 1Y Price Target: $67.09
• Price Target Upside: 15.63% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.84B

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $56.00 ▼(-3.48% Downside)

Carlyle Group's overall stock score reflects strong earnings call performance and strategic growth plans, but is tempered by financial challenges such as high leverage and cash flow pressures. Technical indicators and valuation concerns further moderate the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates effective business strategies and market expansion, supporting long-term financial health.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships enhance Carlyle's market reach and investment capabilities, fostering sustainable growth and competitive advantage.

AUM Growth

Record AUM growth reflects strong investor confidence and effective asset management, ensuring steady revenue from management fees.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Low operating cash flow relative to net income suggests potential liquidity issues, impacting financial flexibility and operational efficiency.

Debt Reliance

High reliance on debt can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially affecting long-term stability and growth opportunities.

Real Estate Market Challenges

Challenges in real estate fundraising could hinder growth in this sector, affecting Carlyle's diversification and revenue streams.

Carlyle Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES. The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm typically invests in industrial, agribusiness, ecological sector, fintech, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies. In telecommunication and media sectors, it invests in cable TV, directories, publishing, entertainment and content delivery services, wireless infrastructure/services, fixed line networks, satellite services, broadband and Internet, and infrastructure. Within real estate, the firm invests in office, hotel, industrial, retail, for sale residential, student housing, hospitality, multifamily residential, homebuilding and building products, and senior living sectors. The firm seeks to make investments in growing business including those with overleveraged balance sheets. The firm seeks to hold its investments for four to six years. In the healthcare sector, it invests in healthcare services, outsourcing services, companies running clinical trials for pharmaceutical companies, managed care, pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical related services, healthcare IT, medical, products, and devices. It seeks to invest in companies based in Sub-Saharan focusing on Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Botswana, Nigeria, Uganda, West Africa, North Africa and South Africa focusing on Tanzania and Zambia; Asia focusing on Pakistan, India, South East Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Korea, and Japan; Australia; New Zealand; Europe focusing on France, Italy, Denmark, United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Benelux , Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, Poland, and Russia; Middle East focusing on Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE; North America focusing on United States which further invest in Southeastern United States, Texas, Boston, San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest; Asia Pacific; Soviet Union, Central-Eastern Europe, and Israel; Nordic region; and South America focusing on Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru. The firm seeks to invest in food, financial, and healthcare industries in Western China. In the real estate sector, the firm seeks to invest in various locations across Europe focusing on France and Central Europe, United States, Asia focusing on China, and Latin America. It typically invests between $1 million and $50 million for venture investments and between $50 million and $2 billion for buyouts in companies with enterprise value of between $31.57 million and $1000 million and sales value of $10 million and $500 million. It seeks to invest in companies with market capitalization greater than $50 million and EBITDA between $5 million to $25 million. It prefers to take a majority or a minority stake. It typically holds its investments for three to five years. Within automotive and transportation sectors, the firm seeks to hold its investments in for four to six years. While investing in Japan, it does not invest in companies with more than 1,000 employees and prefers companies' worth between $100 million and $150 million. The firm originates, structures, and acts as lead equity investor in the transactions. The Carlyle Group Inc. was founded in 1987 and is based in Washington, District of Columbia with additional offices in 21 countries across 5 continents (North America, South America, Asia, Australia and Europe).

How the Company Makes Money

Carlyle Group generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees from its investment funds. Management fees are typically charged as a percentage of the assets under management (AUM), providing a steady income stream. Performance fees, also known as carried interest, are earned when the funds exceed a predetermined return threshold, allowing Carlyle to share in the profits generated by its investments. Additionally, Carlyle engages in co-investment opportunities with its investors, which can lead to additional sources of revenue. The firm also benefits from strategic partnerships and alliances that enhance its investment capabilities and broaden its market reach, further contributing to its earnings.

Carlyle Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carlyle Group shows strong profitability with healthy margins, but faces challenges with declining revenue growth and high leverage, impacting financial flexibility. Cash flow pressures are evident, requiring strategic focus on improving cash generation and managing debt levels.

Income Statement

The Carlyle Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 16.06%, reflecting challenges in maintaining top-line growth. However, the company maintains a solid gross profit margin of 80.96% and a reasonable net profit margin of 17.92%, suggesting effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 26.08% and 31.23%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency. Despite these strengths, the negative revenue growth trend is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.85, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks in a volatile market. The return on equity (ROE) is moderate at 11.08%, reflecting decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 25.31%, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with room for improvement in reducing debt levels.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges, with negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in the TTM period. The free cash flow growth rate is significantly negative at -383.07%, indicating cash flow pressures. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.03, suggesting that the company is generating cash relative to its net income, albeit at a declining rate.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.69B	4.09B	1.87B	3.68B	5.82B	2.13B
Gross Profit	2.99B	3.40B	1.32B	3.36B	5.53B	1.88B
EBITDA	1.15B	1.58B	-420.30M	1.72B	4.08B	632.10M
Net Income	661.50M	1.02B	-608.40M	1.23B	2.97B	348.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	27.06B	23.10B	21.18B	21.40B	21.25B	15.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.26B	2.10B	1.79B	1.57B	2.62B	1.14B
Total Debt	12.66B	9.50B	9.26B	8.68B	8.50B	8.05B
Total Liabilities	20.21B	16.76B	15.39B	14.58B	15.54B	12.71B
Stockholders Equity	5.62B	5.61B	5.19B	6.22B	5.28B	2.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.52B	-837.20M	138.30M	-419.90M	1.75B	-230.40M
Operating Cash Flow	-2.43B	-759.50M	204.90M	-379.30M	1.79B	-169.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-84.10M	-77.60M	-43.60M	-828.80M	-32.20M	-61.20M
Financing Cash Flow	3.33B	682.80M	-99.60M	114.80M	-242.50M	370.30M

Carlyle Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 58.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.51, above the 50-day MA of 55.48, and above the 200-day MA of 52.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CG.

Carlyle Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BX	72 Outperform	$185.52B	43.62	35.17%	3.06%	33.12%	19.86%
OWL	69 Neutral	$24.69B	351.78	2.41%	5.56%	27.24%	-59.82%
KKR	69 Neutral	$118.89B	56.82	8.73%	0.55%	-33.80%	-24.81%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ARES	64 Neutral	$56.75B	73.96	18.64%	2.66%	50.70%	7.32%
TPG	61 Neutral	$25.12B	693.42	7.19%	2.98%	25.02%	235.70%
CG	59 Neutral	$20.82B	32.15	11.85%	2.41%	-24.62%	437.16%

Carlyle Group Corporate Events

Carlyle Group Announces General Counsel’s Retirement

On December 5, 2025, Carlyle Group announced the retirement of Jeffrey W. Ferguson, its General Counsel since 1999, effective in 2026. Ferguson will transition to a Senior Advisor role to assist with the succession process and ongoing matters, while Carlyle begins the search for his successor. His departure marks the end of over 25 years of service, during which he significantly contributed to the firm’s legal framework and governance capabilities. The announcement highlights Carlyle’s strong executive team and Ferguson’s professionalism and dedication.

Carlyle Group Issues $800 Million in Senior Notes

On September 19, 2025, The Carlyle Group Inc. and its subsidiaries entered into a senior notes indenture with The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, issuing $800 million in 5.050% Senior Notes due 2035. The notes, guaranteed by Carlyle’s subsidiaries, include covenants limiting certain corporate actions and provide for redemption options and events of default. Additionally, on September 16, 2025, Carlyle and its subsidiaries signed an underwriting agreement with several major financial institutions, ensuring the legality and issuance of the notes.

Carlyle Group Announces $800 Million Senior Notes Offering

On September 16, 2025, Carlyle Group announced the pricing of an $800 million offering of 5.050% senior notes due 2035, guaranteed by its subsidiaries. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, with the offering expected to close on September 19, 2025, subject to customary conditions.