Carlyle Group (CG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.13B
• Dividend Yield: 2.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.73
• Revenue Growth: 81.86%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,300
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 1.14
• Shares Outstanding: 361,135,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,881,064
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,394,536
• PEG Ratio: -0.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.16
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.10
• 1Y Price Target: $47.38
• Price Target Upside: 2.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $51.00 ▲(10.41%Upside)

The Carlyle Group's stock score is driven by its strong financial recovery and growth, particularly in revenue and profitability. Technical indicators support a positive trend, and the earnings call provided a robust outlook, although valuation is only moderate. Trade policy concerns pose a potential risk.

Positive Factors

Growth Prospects

Encouraging growth signs are evident across Real Estate, Credit/Fortitude, and Secondaries, supported by record FRE and healthy inflows.

Market Valuation

The stock is trading at a significant discount to peer average, indicating potential for multiple expansion as non-PE businesses scale.

Negative Factors

Earnings Concerns

Lowering 2Q25 EPS by -3% to $0.86 highlights concerns about future earnings.

Management Fee Growth

Management fee growth in CG's Corporate PE business is expected to be flat to negative through 2026 until new funds launch.

Carlyle Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Carlyle Group (CG) is a global investment firm that specializes in private equity, real assets, and credit investments. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the firm operates across multiple sectors including aerospace, consumer, energy, financial services, healthcare, industrial, technology, and telecommunications. Carlyle's core services include managing investment funds that provide capital to companies in these industries, with a focus on generating long-term value for investors.

How the Company Makes Money

Carlyle Group makes money primarily through management fees and performance-based incentive fees, known as carried interest. The firm charges management fees as a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) for overseeing investment funds. Additionally, Carlyle earns carried interest, a share of the profits generated by these funds, once they surpass a certain threshold of return for investors. This performance-based earnings model incentivizes Carlyle to maximize returns on their investments. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and co-investments with institutional investors, which can enhance their investment capabilities and expand their revenue streams.

Carlyle Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The Carlyle Group shows strong revenue growth and a return to profitability. Operational efficiency is demonstrated by a high EBIT margin, and cash flow is robust, though historical volatility poses some risk. Debt reduction enhances stability, but equity backing could be improved.

Income Statement

The Carlyle Group has demonstrated significant revenue growth from $2.64 billion in 2023 to $5.43 billion in 2024, indicating a strong recovery trajectory. However, the net profit margin has fluctuated, with a return to profitability in 2024 at $1.02 billion compared to a loss in 2023. The gross profit margin is consistent with the total revenue, indicating effective cost management. The EBIT margin in 2024 is strong at approximately 87.7%, showcasing operational efficiency despite past volatility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable, with stockholders' equity increasing to $6.35 billion in 2024 from $5.19 billion in 2023, reflecting improved capitalization. The company has reduced its debt significantly, achieving a zero total debt position in 2024, improving the debt-to-equity ratio. However, the equity ratio remains moderate at around 27.5%, suggesting room for strengthening asset backing.

Cash Flow

The Carlyle Group's cash flow position is robust, with free cash flow growing from $138 million in 2023 to over $1 billion in 2024, demonstrating effective cash management and operational improvements. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. However, the historical cash flow volatility suggests potential risks in maintaining this trajectory.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.14B	4.09B	1.87B	3.68B	5.82B	2.13B
	Gross Profit
3.47B	3.40B	1.32B	3.36B	5.53B	1.88B
	EBIT
1.44B	1.39B	-600.90M	1.57B	4.03B	580.00M
	EBITDA
1.63B	1.58B	-420.30M	1.72B	4.08B	632.10M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.08B	1.02B	-608.40M	1.23B	2.97B	348.20M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.19B	2.10B	1.79B	1.38B	2.62B	1.14B
	Total Assets
24.10B	23.10B	21.18B	21.40B	21.25B	15.64B
	Total Debt
0.00	9.50B	9.26B	8.68B	8.50B	8.05B
	Net Debt
-1.19B	7.40B	-1.79B	-1.57B	-2.62B	-1.14B
	Total Liabilities
17.71B	16.76B	15.39B	14.58B	15.54B	12.71B
	Stockholders Equity
6.39B	5.61B	5.19B	6.22B	5.28B	2.69B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-746.60M	-837.20M	138.30M	-1.04B	1.75B	-230.40M
	Operating Cash Flow
-666.40M	-759.50M	204.90M	-379.30M	1.79B	-169.20M
	Investing Cash Flow
-80.10M	-77.60M	-43.60M	-828.80M	-32.20M	-61.20M
	Financing Cash Flow
941.80M	682.80M	-99.60M	114.80M	-242.50M	370.30M

Carlyle Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 46.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.95, above the 50-day MA of 41.70, and below the 200-day MA of 46.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CG.

Carlyle Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CG	73 Outperform	$17.13B	16.02	20.38%	2.93%	81.86%	―
ARES	71 Outperform	$55.78B	96.27	12.97%	2.62%	19.02%	-22.75%
KKR	68 Neutral	$112.22B	54.62	9.03%	0.59%	-27.45%	-46.67%
BX	68 Neutral	$171.54B	42.77	34.07%	2.64%	22.06%	16.57%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.93B	9.70	7.85%	78.03%	12.07%	-7.83%
STEP	63 Neutral	$6.56B	103.13	-71.28%	4.54%	118.79%	-285.61%
TPG	63 Neutral	$19.14B	―	0.24%	3.17%	46.69%	-98.56%

Carlyle Group Corporate Events

Carlyle Group Extends Credit Agreement to 2030

On May 29, 2025, The Carlyle Group Inc. announced the entry into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, maintaining its revolving credit facility at $1.0 billion with the option to increase it by $250 million. The maturity date was extended to May 29, 2030, and the agreement includes various financial covenants and potential default events. Additionally, on the same day, Carlyle held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where shareholders voted on three proposals, including the election of eight directors, ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm, and approval of executive compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (CG) stock is a Sell with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Group stock, see the CG Stock Forecast page.