Carlyle Group (CG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.74B
• Dividend Yield: 2.3%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.74
• Revenue Growth: -24.62%
• EPS Growth: 437.16%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,300
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 1.01
• Shares Outstanding: 360,410,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,681,123
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,178,041
• PEG Ratio: -1.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.34
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.60
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.28
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.06
• 1Y Price Target: $68.30
• Price Target Upside: 31.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.63
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.64B

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $55.00 ▲(5.79% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is held back primarily by uneven multi-year financial quality (especially cash-flow volatility) and weak technicals with the stock trading below key moving averages. Offsetting these are a notably positive operating narrative from the latest earnings call (record FRE, strong inflows and margin progress) and supportive corporate actions/targets, while valuation is reasonable but not distinctly cheap.

Positive Factors

Fundraising & AUM Growth

Large, repeat institutional inflows and record AUM create a durable base for management fees and fee-related earnings. Sustained fundraising expands investible capital, supports scale economics, and signals client confidence that should underwrite recurring revenue and long-term franchise value.

Strong FRE and Margin Expansion

Record FRE and elevated FRE margin reflect improving fee mix and operating leverage, boosting predictable recurring income. Higher FRE margin increases distributable earnings capacity and resilience across cycles, supporting sustained dividend/buyback potential and reinvestment in growth initiatives.

AlpInvest Momentum & Secondary Capability

Rapid AlpInvest growth and a record secondary vehicle diversify revenue sources and enhance fee durability. Strong secondary capability creates recurring fee streams, improves liquidity solutions for LPs, and strengthens Carlyle's competitive edge in institutional allocations over multiple market cycles.

Negative Factors

Cash-Flow Volatility

Material swings in operating and free cash flow reduce certainty around internal funding, support for buybacks, and capital allocation. Irregular cash conversion can force reliance on realizations or capital markets during downturns, weakening flexibility to sustain payouts and investments across cycles.

Meaningful Leverage

Elevated leverage limits balance-sheet resilience in stressed markets and narrows strategic optionality. With debt materially above historical lows, downturns that impair realizations could strain liquidity or force asset sales, increasing refinancing and covenant risks and reducing long-term financial flexibility.

Cyclicality / Exit-Market Dependence

Earnings and realized gains hinge on timing and receptivity of exit markets. Persistent reliance on IPOs and robust M&A to convert unrealized value makes distributable earnings and carry recognition vulnerable to prolonged market downdrafts, increasing outcome variability across multi-year horizons.

Carlyle Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES. The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm typically invests in industrial, agribusiness, ecological sector, fintech, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies. In telecommunication and media sectors, it invests in cable TV, directories, publishing, entertainment and content delivery services, wireless infrastructure/services, fixed line networks, satellite services, broadband and Internet, and infrastructure. Within real estate, the firm invests in office, hotel, industrial, retail, for sale residential, student housing, hospitality, multifamily residential, homebuilding and building products, and senior living sectors. The firm seeks to make investments in growing business including those with overleveraged balance sheets. The firm seeks to hold its investments for four to six years. In the healthcare sector, it invests in healthcare services, outsourcing services, companies running clinical trials for pharmaceutical companies, managed care, pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical related services, healthcare IT, medical, products, and devices. It seeks to invest in companies based in Sub-Saharan focusing on Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Botswana, Nigeria, Uganda, West Africa, North Africa and South Africa focusing on Tanzania and Zambia; Asia focusing on Pakistan, India, South East Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Korea, and Japan; Australia; New Zealand; Europe focusing on France, Italy, Denmark, United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Benelux , Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, Poland, and Russia; Middle East focusing on Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE; North America focusing on United States which further invest in Southeastern United States, Texas, Boston, San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest; Asia Pacific; Soviet Union, Central-Eastern Europe, and Israel; Nordic region; and South America focusing on Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru. The firm seeks to invest in food, financial, and healthcare industries in Western China. In the real estate sector, the firm seeks to invest in various locations across Europe focusing on France and Central Europe, United States, Asia focusing on China, and Latin America. It typically invests between $1 million and $50 million for venture investments and between $50 million and $2 billion for buyouts in companies with enterprise value of between $31.57 million and $1000 million and sales value of $10 million and $500 million. It seeks to invest in companies with market capitalization greater than $50 million and EBITDA between $5 million to $25 million. It prefers to take a majority or a minority stake. It typically holds its investments for three to five years. Within automotive and transportation sectors, the firm seeks to hold its investments in for four to six years. While investing in Japan, it does not invest in companies with more than 1,000 employees and prefers companies' worth between $100 million and $150 million. The firm originates, structures, and acts as lead equity investor in the transactions. The Carlyle Group Inc. was founded in 1987 and is based in Washington, District of Columbia with additional offices in 21 countries across 5 continents (North America, South America, Asia, Australia and Europe).

How the Company Makes Money

Carlyle Group generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees from its investment funds. Management fees are typically charged as a percentage of the assets under management (AUM), providing a steady income stream. Performance fees, also known as carried interest, are earned when the funds exceed a predetermined return threshold, allowing Carlyle to share in the profits generated by its investments. Additionally, Carlyle engages in co-investment opportunities with its investors, which can lead to additional sources of revenue. The firm also benefits from strategic partnerships and alliances that enhance its investment capabilities and broaden its market reach, further contributing to its earnings.

Carlyle Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows a strong 2025 rebound (revenue +32.7% YoY) with solid profitability, but results have been cyclical (2023 net loss) and margins are well below peak levels. Balance sheet leverage is meaningful (~2.0x debt/equity), reducing downturn cushion. Cash flow is the biggest drag due to multi-year inconsistency (negative OCF/FCF in 2024 and 2022 despite strong 2025).

Income Statement

Revenue rebounded sharply in 2025 (+32.7% YoY) and profitability remained solid (about 16.5% net margin and ~27% EBITDA margin). However, results have been volatile across the cycle: 2023 posted a net loss and negative operating profitability, and margins have compressed meaningfully from peak 2021 levels (when net margin was ~51%). Overall: good recent momentum, but earnings stability is a key weakness.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful for the business profile, with debt running ~2.0x equity in 2025 (up from ~1.69x in 2024). Equity has grown, but the capital structure still leaves less cushion in a downturn. Returns on equity are positive again in 2024–2025 (about 18.2% and 11.5%), yet the negative return in 2023 underscores sensitivity to market/realization cycles.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent. 2025 produced healthy operating cash flow (~$1.09B) and free cash flow (~$0.99B), with free cash flow close to net income (~0.91x). But 2024 saw negative operating and free cash flow, and 2022 was also negative, indicating swings in cash conversion and working-capital/investment timing. This variability reduces confidence in steady cash support through cycles.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.90B	4.09B	1.87B	3.68B	5.82B
Gross Profit	3.23B	3.40B	1.32B	3.36B	5.53B
EBITDA	1.34B	1.58B	-420.30M	1.72B	4.08B
Net Income	808.70M	1.02B	-608.40M	1.23B	2.97B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	29.12B	23.10B	21.18B	21.40B	21.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.21B	2.10B	1.79B	1.57B	2.62B
Total Debt	14.36B	9.50B	9.26B	8.68B	8.50B
Total Liabilities	22.06B	16.76B	15.39B	14.58B	15.54B
Stockholders Equity	7.06B	5.61B	5.19B	6.22B	5.28B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	989.20M	-837.20M	138.30M	-419.90M	1.75B
Operating Cash Flow	1.09B	-759.50M	204.90M	-379.30M	1.79B
Investing Cash Flow	-99.40M	-77.60M	-43.60M	-828.80M	-32.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-24.70M	682.80M	-99.60M	114.80M	-242.50M

Carlyle Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 51.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.97, below the 50-day MA of 58.96, and below the 200-day MA of 56.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CG.

Carlyle Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
OWL	66 Neutral	$16.40B	102.23	3.64%	5.45%	27.24%	-59.82%
BX	65 Neutral	$139.31B	29.30	35.78%	3.02%	33.12%	19.86%
ARES	64 Neutral	$36.45B	63.48	12.40%	2.65%	50.70%	7.32%
CG	60 Neutral	$18.74B	23.85	12.77%	2.30%	-24.62%	437.16%
TPG	59 Neutral	$16.70B	96.75	13.14%	3.03%	25.02%	235.70%
KKR	57 Neutral	$78.16B	37.44	8.69%	0.56%	-33.80%	-24.81%

Carlyle Group Corporate Events

Carlyle Unveils 2028 Growth Roadmap and Buyback Plan

On February 26, 2026, Carlyle used its 2026 Shareholder Update to outline a new three-year growth roadmap, setting targets for Fee Related Earnings of more than $1.9 billion, over $200 billion of inflows, and Distributable Earnings per common share above $6.00 by the end of 2028. The update featured senior leadership presentations and a Q&A session, underlining management’s view that recent restructuring has made the platform more diversified, durable, and capable of sustaining record-level financial performance.

The company also unveiled a fresh $2 billion share repurchase authorization, giving Carlyle added flexibility to return capital to shareholders as part of its broader capital allocation framework. Taken together, the aggressive financial targets and enlarged buyback plan signal a bid to reinforce investor confidence in Carlyle’s growth trajectory and its commitment to enhancing shareholder value in a competitive alternative asset management landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (CG) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Group stock, see the CG Stock Forecast page.

Carlyle Group Announces General Counsel’s Retirement

On December 5, 2025, Carlyle Group announced the retirement of Jeffrey W. Ferguson, its General Counsel since 1999, effective in 2026. Ferguson will transition to a Senior Advisor role to assist with the succession process and ongoing matters, while Carlyle begins the search for his successor. His departure marks the end of over 25 years of service, during which he significantly contributed to the firm’s legal framework and governance capabilities. The announcement highlights Carlyle’s strong executive team and Ferguson’s professionalism and dedication.

The most recent analyst rating on (CG) stock is a Hold with a $56.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Group stock, see the CG Stock Forecast page.