The Carlyle Group Lp (CG)
NASDAQ:CG
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Carlyle Group
(NASDAQ:CG)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$44.00
â–¼(-16.48% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (negative TTM operating/free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include a constructive earnings-call outlook with reiterated multi-year targets and a supportive dividend yield, while the current P/E limits valuation upside.
Positive Factors
Strong fundraising & record dry powder
Record dry powder and sizable quarterly inflows strengthen Carlyle's ability to deploy capital across cycles, underpinning future management fees and eventual carry realizations. Large committed capital supports deal sourcing, competitive bidding, and multi-year fee visibility even in slow markets.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Materially negative trailing cash flows undermine financial flexibility: they constrain discretionary capital allocation, strain the ability to fund share repurchases or dividends sustainably, and increase reliance on external financing or realized exits to support liquidity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong fundraising & record dry powder
Record dry powder and sizable quarterly inflows strengthen Carlyle's ability to deploy capital across cycles, underpinning future management fees and eventual carry realizations. Large committed capital supports deal sourcing, competitive bidding, and multi-year fee visibility even in slow markets.
Read all positive factors
Carlyle Group (CG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.04B
Dividend Yield2.3%
Average Volume (3M)3.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.1
Beta (1Y)1.72
Revenue Growth-26.37%
EPS Growth-49.86%
CountryUS
Employees2,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.52
Shares Outstanding359,974,430
10 Day Avg. Volume3,739,994
30 Day Avg. Volume3,498,544
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.25
Price to Book (P/B)3.69
Price to Sales (P/S)4.34
P/FCF Ratio15.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.07
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda27.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$58.48Price Target Upside11.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)4.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.95B
Carlyle Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Carlyle Group Inc. is a leading global investment firm that employs both direct investment and fund-of-fund strategies. Its direct investment expertise is extensive, encompassing management-led leveraged buyouts, privatizations, and divestitur...
How the Company Makes Money
Carlyle makes money primarily by earning fees for managing assets and by earning performance-based compensation when its investments generate returns.
1) Management fees (recurring fee revenue): Carlyle raises capital from investors into its fund...
Carlyle Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: the firm reported strong underlying operating metrics (record realizations, durable inflows, record dry powder, rising AUM in key businesses, and solid fee-related earnings and margins) and highlighted notable transactions and a $5+ billion LP-anchored solution that demonstrates product innovation. Near-term lowlights include lower realized carry/NRPR composition this quarter, low AlpInvest carry compensation and some wealth-channel redemption scrutiny and day‑1 markup attention. Management emphasized confidence in meeting multi-year targets and expects transaction and fee revenue to accelerate, suggesting the positives materially outweigh the short-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Distributable Earnings and Fee-Related Earnings
Distributable earnings of $327 million ( $0.89 per share) in Q1; fee-related earnings (FRE) of $300 million at a 47% margin (up from $290 million in Q4). Fund management fees were $545 million, up 4% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Lower Net Realized Performance Revenue Composition
Net realized performance revenue (NRPR) was $21 million in the quarter, lower year-over-year due to the composition of exits (many exits were in funds not yet producing carry such as CP VII and CP VIII), resulting in muted realized carry this quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Distributable Earnings and Fee-Related Earnings
Distributable earnings of $327 million ( $0.89 per share) in Q1; fee-related earnings (FRE) of $300 million at a 47% margin (up from $290 million in Q4). Fund management fees were $545 million, up 4% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated confidence in their February targets, restating a path to $200 billion of inflows, $1.9 billion of fee‑related earnings and $6+ of distributable earnings per share by end‑2028, and said they expect mid‑to‑high single‑digit FRE growth in 2026, acceleration in management fees over the next two years, a pickup in transaction‑fee revenue next quarter (driven by recently signed/closing deals), and higher realized carry/NRPR through the remainder of 2026 from near‑term drivers including Japan IV, the third Financial Services fund and the fourth European Technology fund.Carlyle Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.99B | 4.90B | 4.09B | 1.87B | 3.68B | 5.82B |
| Gross Profit | 2.92B | 3.23B | 3.40B | 1.32B | 3.36B | 5.53B |
| EBITDA | 1.01B | 1.34B | 1.58B | -420.30M | 1.72B | 4.08B |
| Net Income | 546.50M | 808.70M | 1.02B | -608.40M | 1.23B | 2.97B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 29.84B | 29.12B | 23.10B | 21.18B | 21.40B | 21.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.75B | 3.21B | 2.10B | 1.79B | 1.57B | 2.62B |
| Total Debt | 14.62B | 13.89B | 9.50B | 9.26B | 8.68B | 8.50B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.47B | 22.06B | 16.76B | 15.39B | 14.58B | 15.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.40B | 5.76B | 5.61B | 5.19B | 6.22B | 5.28B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -917.80M | 1.36B | -837.20M | 138.30M | -419.90M | 1.75B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -807.00M | 1.46B | -759.50M | 204.90M | -379.30M | 1.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.54B | -4.25B | -77.60M | -43.60M | -828.80M | -32.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.79B | 3.28B | 682.80M | -99.60M | 114.80M | -242.50M |
Carlyle Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
52.68
Price Trends
47.51
Negative
49.86
Negative
54.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.94
Negative
49.92
Neutral
69.15
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 52.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.97, above the 50-day MA of 47.51, and below the 200-day MA of 54.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.94 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.15 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CG.
Carlyle Group Risk Analysis
Carlyle Group disclosed 71 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Carlyle Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Carlyle Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $147.66B | 31.49 | 36.16% | 3.02% | 17.79% | 17.92% | |
68 Neutral | $15.15B | 75.75 | 3.89% | 5.45% | 19.26% | -20.10% | |
68 Neutral | $16.41B | 49.08 | 12.56% | 3.03% | 11.60% | 28307.69% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $43.81B | 48.53 | 14.54% | 2.65% | 46.89% | 21.89% | |
62 Neutral | $85.57B | 28.96 | 9.92% | 0.56% | 35.81% | 27.22% | |
54 Neutral | $16.04B | 30.07 | 9.65% | 2.30% | -26.37% | -49.86% |
* Financial Sector Average
CG
Carlyle Group
45.75
0.74
1.65%
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Carlyle Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Carlyle Group Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Incentives
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
On June 3, 2026, The Carlyle Group Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, at which investors elected thirteen director nominees to one-year terms, including co-founders William E. Conway Jr., David M. Rubenstein, and Daniel A. D’...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Carlyle Group Appoints New General Counsel, Plans Transition
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On June 1, 2026, Carlyle announced that Kate Heinzelman will join the firm as General Counsel effective June 29, 2026, reporting to CEO Harvey Schwartz and overseeing the global legal and compliance organization. The move follows the previously di...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.