Carlyle Group (CG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.48B
• Dividend Yield: 2.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.54M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.74
• Revenue Growth: 101.10%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,300
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.91
• Shares Outstanding: 361,704,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,032,992
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,535,352
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.43
• P/FCF Ratio: -21.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.60
• 1Y Price Target: $66.13
• Price Target Upside: 1.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(7.84% Upside)

Carlyle Group's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call results and positive technical analysis, indicating a bullish outlook. Financial performance shows recovery and growth, though valuation is fair. New leadership appointments are promising but not factored into the score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Meaningful growth is seen in CG's Capital Markets business with FRE margin expansion supporting a projected 10% FRE CAGR through 2027.

Growth Prospects

Record FRE and healthy inflows indicate encouraging growth signs across Real Estate, Credit/Fortitude, and Secondaries.

Negative Factors

Earnings

Lowering 2Q25 EPS by -3% to $0.86, indicating concerns about future earnings.

Carlyle Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carlyle Group (CG) is a global investment firm specializing in private equity, real assets, and global credit. Founded in 1987, the firm operates across multiple sectors including aerospace, healthcare, technology, and energy, with a focus on creating value through active management and strategic partnerships. Carlyle provides a range of services including investment management and advisory, catering to a diverse clientele that includes institutional investors, governments, and high-net-worth individuals.

How the Company Makes Money

Carlyle Group generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance-based fees from its investment funds. Management fees are typically a percentage of the assets under management (AUM), which provide a steady income stream. Performance fees, often referred to as carried interest, are earned when the firm's investment returns exceed a specified benchmark, allowing Carlyle to share in the profits of its successful investments. Additionally, the firm may earn investment income from the underlying portfolio companies and assets it manages. Significant partnerships with institutional investors and access to a broad network of industry contacts enhance Carlyle's ability to source investments and drive returns, contributing to its overall earnings.

Carlyle Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Carlyle Group shows a strong recovery with significant growth in revenue and profitability. Effective cost management and a robust cash flow enhance the outlook, although equity backing needs improvement.

Income Statement

The Carlyle Group has demonstrated significant revenue growth from $2.64 billion in 2023 to $5.43 billion in 2024, indicating a strong recovery trajectory. However, the net profit margin has fluctuated, with a return to profitability in 2024 at $1.02 billion compared to a loss in 2023. The gross profit margin is consistent with the total revenue, indicating effective cost management. The EBIT margin in 2024 is strong at approximately 87.7%, showcasing operational efficiency despite past volatility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable, with stockholders' equity increasing to $6.35 billion in 2024 from $5.19 billion in 2023, reflecting improved capitalization. The company has reduced its debt significantly, achieving a zero total debt position in 2024, improving the debt-to-equity ratio. However, the equity ratio remains moderate at around 27.5%, suggesting room for strengthening asset backing.

Cash Flow

The Carlyle Group's cash flow position is robust, with free cash flow growing from $138 million in 2023 to over $1 billion in 2024, demonstrating effective cash management and operational improvements. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. However, the historical cash flow volatility suggests potential risks in maintaining this trajectory.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.14B	4.09B	1.87B	3.68B	5.82B	2.13B
Gross Profit	3.47B	3.40B	1.32B	3.36B	5.53B	1.88B
EBITDA	1.63B	1.58B	-420.30M	1.72B	4.08B	632.10M
Net Income	1.08B	1.02B	-608.40M	1.23B	2.97B	348.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.10B	23.10B	21.18B	21.40B	21.25B	15.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.19B	2.10B	1.79B	1.38B	2.62B	1.14B
Total Debt	0.00	9.50B	9.26B	8.68B	8.50B	8.05B
Total Liabilities	17.71B	16.76B	15.39B	14.58B	15.54B	12.71B
Stockholders Equity	6.39B	5.61B	5.19B	6.22B	5.28B	2.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-746.60M	-837.20M	138.30M	-419.90M	1.75B	-230.40M
Operating Cash Flow	-666.40M	-759.50M	204.90M	-379.30M	1.79B	-169.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-80.10M	-77.60M	-43.60M	-828.80M	-32.20M	-61.20M
Financing Cash Flow	941.80M	682.80M	-99.60M	114.80M	-242.50M	370.30M

Carlyle Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 64.91
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 64.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.09, above the 50-day MA of 55.93, and above the 200-day MA of 49.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CG.

Carlyle Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARES	76 Outperform	$62.22B	108.95	13.92%	2.15%	45.89%	-9.53%
CG	75 Outperform	$23.48B	18.94	23.07%	2.16%	101.10%	―
KKR	74 Outperform	$130.13B	70.05	8.22%	0.49%	-24.62%	-48.96%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.53B	11.77	10.43%	3.83%	9.84%	1.31%
BX	66 Neutral	$213.38B	46.90	37.72%	2.44%	23.08%	41.35%
TPG	63 Neutral	$24.25B	―	2.55%	2.71%	43.48%	-24.02%
STEP	60 Neutral	$7.35B	103.13	-88.82%	2.19%	88.68%	-494.20%

Carlyle Group Corporate Events

Carlyle Group Announces New Leadership Appointments

On July 28, 2025, Carlyle Group announced significant leadership changes effective January 1, 2026, with John C. Redett, Mark Jenkins, and Jeff Nedelman appointed as Co-Presidents. This restructuring aims to enhance Carlyle’s strategic priorities and investment performance. John Redett will oversee Global Private Equity, Mark Jenkins will lead Global Credit and Insurance, and Jeff Nedelman will continue with Global Client Business. Additionally, Justin Plouffe will succeed Redett as Chief Financial Officer. These appointments are expected to strengthen Carlyle’s market positioning and drive future growth, reflecting the firm’s commitment to evolving and delivering value to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (CG) stock is a Sell with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Group stock, see the CG Stock Forecast page.

Carlyle Group Extends Credit Agreement to 2030

On May 29, 2025, The Carlyle Group Inc. announced the entry into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, maintaining its revolving credit facility at $1.0 billion with the option to increase it by $250 million. The maturity date was extended to May 29, 2030, and the agreement includes various financial covenants and potential default events. Additionally, on the same day, Carlyle held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where shareholders voted on three proposals, including the election of eight directors, ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the accounting firm, and approval of executive compensation.

The most recent analyst rating on (CG) stock is a Sell with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carlyle Group stock, see the CG Stock Forecast page.