Blue Owl Capital (OWL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.68B
• Dividend Yield: 5.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 25.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 101.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.71
• Revenue Growth: 27.24%
• EPS Growth: -59.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,200
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 665,568,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 30,342,230
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,995,590
• PEG Ratio: -3.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.48
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 14.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 25.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 43.87
• 1Y Price Target: $17.62
• Price Target Upside: 64.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.08B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(16.50% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by strong cash flow and a sharply de-risked balance sheet, reinforced by a generally positive earnings outlook centered on fundraising/AUM growth and steady FRE margins. Offsetting this, the stock’s technical setup is weak (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD) and valuation is stretched on earnings (very high P/E), despite a supportive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation and free cash flow

Large, consistent operating and free cash flow (~$1.26B OCF, ~$1.20B FCF in 2025) creates durable capital allocation optionality. Reliable cash conversion supports dividends, buybacks, M&A and underwriting of credit originations, cushioning the firm through multi‑quarter cycles despite accounting noise.

De‑risked balance sheet and low leverage

Material reduction in leverage (debt ≈ $0.54B; debt/equity ≈ 0.09x) meaningfully lowers financial risk. A stronger capital structure reduces refinancing sensitivity, enables lower borrowing costs and gives the firm durable capacity to scale lending, support redemptions and pursue opportunistic acquisitions over months.

Record fundraising and scalable AUM growth

Record $56B fundraising and >$300B AUM establish a durable fee revenue base. Broad institutional and wealth channel traction diversifies distribution, increases repeatable management fees, and supports expansion of evergreen and private wealth products that can drive steady revenue and product scale over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Thin and volatile net margins with low ROE

Despite healthy operating margins, net profitability is thin and fell to ~2.7% in 2025 while ROE is only ~1.3%. The large equity base and non‑cash accounting items compress shareholder returns, limiting sustainable EPS growth and constraining the company’s ability to expand dividends or materially re‑rate on profitability alone.

Unsustainably high dividend payout in 2025

A 2025 payout above 100% forces management into a transition toward lower distribution intensity (~85% target). That adjustment is structural: it constrains near‑term dividend growth, may require retaining more cash for capital resilience, and creates ongoing scrutiny of how cash generation is allocated among investors, buybacks and reinvestment.

Redemption restrictions and retail liquidity frictions

Permanent redemption restrictions in a retail private debt fund reveal a structural liquidity mismatch between lock‑up assets and retail expectations. Such actions can damage distribution trust, limit future retail flows, raise reputational and regulatory scrutiny, and reduce the firm’s durable ability to scale wealth channels over multiple quarters.

Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Owl Capital Inc. operates as an asset manager. It offers permanent capital base solutions that enables it to offer a holistic platform to middle market companies, large alternative asset managers, and corporate real estate owners and tenants. The company provides direct lending products that offer private credit products comprising diversified, technology, first lien, and opportunistic lending to middle-market companies; GP capital solutions products, which offers capital solutions, including GP minority equity investments, GP debt financing, and professional sports minority investments to large private capital managers; and real estate products that focuses on structuring sale-leaseback transactions, which includes triple net leases. It offers its solutions through permanent capital vehicles, as well as long-dated private funds. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Owl Capital generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees associated with its investment funds. Management fees are typically calculated as a percentage of assets under management (AUM), providing a steady income stream as the company grows its investment portfolio. Performance fees, often referred to as carried interest, are earned when the funds exceed a predetermined return threshold, aligning the company's interests with those of its investors. Additionally, Blue Owl Capital may benefit from advisory fees and transaction fees related to its investment activities. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and other asset managers further enhance its investment capabilities and broaden its market reach, contributing to overall revenue growth.

Blue Owl Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong cash generation (2025 operating cash flow ~$1.26B; free cash flow ~$1.20B) and a materially improved balance-sheet risk profile (debt reduced to ~$0.54B; debt-to-equity ~0.09x). Revenue is growing quickly ($1.73B in 2023 to $2.87B in 2025) with solid operating profitability, but net margin remains thin and slipped in 2025 (~2.7% vs ~4.8% in 2024) and ROE is modest (~1.3%).

Income Statement

Blue Owl Capital shows solid top-line momentum, with revenue rising from $1.73B (2023) to $2.30B (2024) and $2.87B (2025). Profitability has improved materially versus earlier years (losses in 2020–2022 to positive earnings in 2023–2025), and operating profitability remains healthy in 2025 with a ~19% EBIT margin and ~33% EBITDA margin. The key weakness is that net profitability is still thin and volatile: net margin fell to ~2.7% in 2025 from ~4.8% in 2024, indicating earnings are not scaling as cleanly as revenue.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and capital structure strengthened significantly in 2025: total debt dropped to ~$0.54B and debt relative to equity improved to ~0.09x versus ~1.40x in 2024, reducing financial risk. The company also carries a sizable equity base (~$6.18B) against ~$12.47B in assets. The main drawback is returns on equity remain modest (about ~1.3% in 2025, down from ~5.2% in 2024), suggesting the larger equity base is not yet translating into strong shareholder-level profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow increased to ~$1.26B in 2025 (from ~$1.00B in 2024), and free cash flow was robust at ~$1.20B. Free cash flow has also grown year over year in 2025 and has remained consistently high relative to reported net income, pointing to strong cash conversion and good underlying cash economics. The primary watch item is the disconnect between very strong cash flow and comparatively low net income margins, which can signal earnings volatility or non-cash/non-operating impacts on accounting profit.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.87B	2.30B	1.73B	1.37B	823.88M
Gross Profit	1.59B	1.28B	860.97M	475.04M	-673.11M
EBITDA	941.12M	866.04M	632.65M	269.67M	-1.73B
Net Income	78.83M	109.58M	54.34M	-9.29M	-376.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.47B	10.99B	8.82B	8.89B	8.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	194.51M	152.09M	104.16M	68.08M	42.57M
Total Debt	538.15M	2.98B	2.00B	1.86B	1.26B
Total Liabilities	6.41B	5.19B	3.54B	3.34B	2.42B
Stockholders Equity	2.21B	2.13B	1.53B	1.60B	1.66B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.20B	935.37M	881.24M	662.91M	276.40M
Operating Cash Flow	1.26B	999.55M	949.14M	728.45M	281.66M
Investing Cash Flow	-241.28M	-638.14M	-118.03M	-485.22M	-1.60B
Financing Cash Flow	-972.33M	-313.48M	-795.03M	-217.72M	1.35B

Blue Owl Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.73
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OWL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.26, below the 50-day MA of 14.04, and below the 200-day MA of 16.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.94 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.31 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OWL.

Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BX	70 Outperform	$143.04B	29.38	35.78%	3.02%	33.12%	19.86%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
KKR	67 Neutral	$85.33B	39.40	9.12%	0.56%	-33.80%	-24.81%
OWL	66 Neutral	$16.68B	101.16	3.64%	5.45%	27.24%	-59.82%
ARES	64 Neutral	$38.30B	58.44	―	2.65%	50.70%	7.32%
TPG	63 Neutral	$16.56B	94.34	13.14%	3.03%	25.02%	235.70%
CG	59 Neutral	$18.34B	22.72	12.77%	2.30%	-24.62%	437.16%

Blue Owl Capital Corporate Events

Blue Owl Capital Reports Record 2025 Results, Raises Dividend

On February 5, 2026, Blue Owl Capital reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting record fundraising in both institutional and private wealth channels, with new capital commitments reaching $17 billion in the fourth quarter and $56 billion for the year, and assets under management surpassing the $300 billion milestone by year-end. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.225 per Class A share, payable on March 2, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 20, 2026, underscoring its cash-return profile even as it continues to scale its global alternatives platform and investment performance for clients.

The most recent analyst rating on (OWL) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Owl Capital stock, see the OWL Stock Forecast page.

Blue Owl Capital Launches $1.7 Billion Infrastructure Fund

On December 1, 2025, Blue Owl Capital‘s digital infrastructure-focused evergreen vehicle held its first close at approximately $1.7 billion, marking the commencement of its operations. From October 1 to December 1, 2025, the company raised an estimated $4.3 billion across its evergreen non-traded products, surpassing the $3.4 billion raised in the third quarter of 2025, indicating a strong market position and growth in its credit and real assets platforms.

The most recent analyst rating on (OWL) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Owl Capital stock, see the OWL Stock Forecast page.

Blue Owl Capital Sees $200 Million in Stock Purchases

During November, Blue Owl Capital and its subsidiaries saw over $200 million in stock purchases, with $70 million in Blue Owl’s Class A common stock and $135 million in OBDC and OTF shares. These transactions, including executive purchases and repurchase plans, highlight the company’s commitment to aligning with clients and stakeholders, reinforcing its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (OWL) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Owl Capital stock, see the OWL Stock Forecast page.