Blue Owl Capital (OWL)
NYSE:OWL
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Blue Owl Capital
(NYSE:OWL)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
â–²(6.51% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash flow and a sharply de-risked balance sheet, reinforced by a generally positive earnings outlook centered on fundraising/AUM growth and steady FRE margins. Offsetting this, the stock’s technical setup is weak (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD) and valuation is stretched on earnings (very high P/E), despite a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation and conversion
Consistently strong operating and free cash flow enhances durable financial flexibility. High cash conversion supports funding of dividends, buybacks, M&A, and seed/co-investments without relying on external financing, insulating the business through credit cycles and enabling reinvestment for fee growth.
Negative Factors
Thin net margins and low ROE
Despite healthy operating margins, net profitability and ROE remain low, meaning returns to shareholders are muted. Thin net margins increase sensitivity to non-recurring items and performance volatility, requiring sustained fee and performance growth to translate large AUM into meaningful shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation and conversion
Consistently strong operating and free cash flow enhances durable financial flexibility. High cash conversion supports funding of dividends, buybacks, M&A, and seed/co-investments without relying on external financing, insulating the business through credit cycles and enabling reinvestment for fee growth.
Read all positive factors
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.14B
Dividend Yield5.45%
Average Volume (3M)30.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)128.1
Beta (1Y)1.59
Revenue Growth27.24%
EPS Growth-59.82%
CountryUS
Employees1,200
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding665,568,100
10 Day Avg. Volume23,409,155
30 Day Avg. Volume30,049,068
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.20
Price to Book (P/B)4.58
Price to Sales (P/S)3.52
P/FCF Ratio8.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.13
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.88Price Target Upside64.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)0.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.97B
Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blue Owl Capital Inc. operates as an asset manager. It offers permanent capital base solutions that enables it to offer a holistic platform to middle market companies, large alternative asset managers, and corporate real estate owners and tenants....
How the Company Makes Money
Blue Owl makes money primarily by earning recurring fees and performance-based income from managing alternative investment products.
1) Management fees (recurring base revenue): The company earns management fees for overseeing assets under manage...
Blue Owl Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and performance picture: record fundraising, higher AUM, above‑guide FRE margins, double‑digit FRE per share growth, and strong strategy-level returns across net lease, digital infrastructure, direct lending and alternative credit. Near-term headwinds include elevated redemptions in specific non-traded BDC products, a high 2025 dividend payout ratio that management plans to reduce, being behind multi‑year Investor Day targets after year one, and market sentiment risk around AI/software despite limited exposure (8% of AUM) and healthy credit metrics. On balance, the substantive positive metrics, diversified fundraising and robust investment performance materially outweigh the identified near‑term risks.Positive Updates
Record Fundraising and AUM Milestones
Total capital raised $56.0B in 2025 (≈+18% YoY), including >$17B in Q4; firm crossed $300B AUM during Q4.
Negative Updates
Non-Traded BDC Slowdown and Elevated Redemptions
Industry non-traded BDCs experienced a slowdown in capital raising and elevated redemptions in Q4; company noted elevated tenders/redemptions in certain non-traded BDC products and related short-term liquidity management actions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Fundraising and AUM Milestones
Total capital raised $56.0B in 2025 (≈+18% YoY), including >$17B in Q4; firm crossed $300B AUM during Q4.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Blue Owl's guidance for 2026 emphasizes modest operating leverage and continued FRE per‑share growth: target FRE margin ~58.5% (vs. 58.3% in 2025), with FRE per share up 12% in 2025 and a modestly higher growth rate targeted for 2026 (accelerating in 2027); reported full‑year 2025 FRE $0.96 and DE $0.84 (Q4 FRE $0.27, Q4 DE $0.24), declared a Q4 dividend of $0.25 and an annual fixed dividend of $0.92 for 2026 ($0.23/quarter), expect ~2% share‑count growth in 2026 with ~14 million shares related to the digital infrastructure acquisition, forecast equity‑based compensation other of ~ $365M in 2026, an effective tax rate in the mid‑to‑high single digits (higher in Q1 due to the TRA), repurchases/senior exec purchases totaled ~$70M in 2025, and management intends to reduce the 2025 payout ratio (~107–108%) toward a longer‑run ~85% level.Blue Owl Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.87B | 2.30B | 1.73B | 1.37B | 823.88M |
| Gross Profit | 1.59B | 1.28B | 860.97M | 475.04M | -673.11M |
| EBITDA | 941.12M | 866.04M | 632.65M | 269.67M | -1.73B |
| Net Income | 78.83M | 109.58M | 54.34M | -9.29M | -376.17M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.47B | 10.99B | 8.82B | 8.89B | 8.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 194.51M | 152.09M | 104.16M | 68.08M | 42.57M |
| Total Debt | 3.86B | 2.98B | 2.00B | 1.86B | 1.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.41B | 5.19B | 3.54B | 3.34B | 2.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.21B | 2.13B | 1.53B | 1.60B | 1.66B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.20B | 935.37M | 881.24M | 662.91M | 276.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.26B | 999.55M | 949.14M | 728.45M | 281.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -241.28M | -638.14M | -118.03M | -485.22M | -1.60B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -972.33M | -313.48M | -795.03M | -217.72M | 1.35B |
Blue Owl Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
8.45
Price Trends
10.18
Negative
12.58
Negative
14.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.54
Negative
33.20
Neutral
27.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OWL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.79, below the 50-day MA of 10.18, and below the 200-day MA of 14.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OWL.
Blue Owl Capital Risk Analysis
Blue Owl Capital disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Owl Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $148.90B | 39.87 | 36.17% | 3.02% | 33.12% | 19.86% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $35.15B | 66.62 | 12.01% | 2.65% | 50.70% | 7.32% | |
66 Neutral | $13.14B | 128.08 | 3.43% | 5.45% | 27.24% | -59.82% | |
60 Neutral | $17.77B | 26.29 | 14.18% | 2.30% | -24.62% | 437.16% | |
60 Neutral | $15.14B | 48.03 | 16.10% | 3.03% | 25.02% | 235.70% | |
57 Neutral | $87.50B | 47.88 | 8.15% | 0.56% | -33.80% | -24.81% |
* Financial Sector Average
OWL
Blue Owl Capital
9.17
-7.44
-44.78%
KKR
KKR & Co
100.43
-3.15
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BX
Blackstone Group
126.33
-2.81
-2.18%
CG
Carlyle Group
51.19
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42.12%
ARES
Ares Management
112.61
-24.12
-17.64%
TPG
TPG
42.38
-1.32
-3.02%
Blue Owl Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Blue Owl Capital Reports Record 2025 Results, Raises Dividend
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Blue Owl Capital reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting record fundraising in both institutional and private wealth channels, with new capital commitments reaching $17 billion in the fourth quarte...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.