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Blue Owl Capital
(NYSE:OWL)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$11.50
â–²(21.69% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is primarily supported by strong cash-flow performance and improving profitability, plus constructive (but not fully recovered) technical positioning. Earnings call commentary reinforces confidence in fundraising and embedded fee growth, while key risks include retail/redemption softness and portfolio valuation/LTV pressures in software. Valuation is the main drag due to the very high P/E, partially offset by the high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation quality
High and consistent cash conversion is a durable strength for an alternatives manager: strong operating and free cash flow funds distributions, supports GP reinvestment and seed positions, reduces reliance on external borrowing, and underpins the firm's ability to sustain fees, dividends, and strategic investments over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Rising software LTVs and maturity concentration
Higher mark‑to‑market LTVs in software and a clustered 2028–2029 maturity wall are durable structural risks that can force equity injections or distressed restructurings for affected credits. This elevates capital and loss volatility risk for the credit platform and could compress realized returns over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation quality
High and consistent cash conversion is a durable strength for an alternatives manager: strong operating and free cash flow funds distributions, supports GP reinvestment and seed positions, reduces reliance on external borrowing, and underpins the firm's ability to sustain fees, dividends, and strategic investments over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.06B
Dividend Yield8.79%
Average Volume (3M)18.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)83.9
Beta (1Y)1.89
Revenue Growth14.13%
EPS Growth-4.48%
CountryUS
Employees1,365
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding675,802,400
10 Day Avg. Volume13,865,724
30 Day Avg. Volume18,671,864
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.11
Price to Book (P/B)4.58
Price to Sales (P/S)3.52
P/FCF Ratio8.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.59Price Target Upside33.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.82B
Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Blue Owl Capital Inc., an asset management firm based in New York City, leverages a robust and permanent capital base to deliver a comprehensive suite of financial solutions. It serves a diverse clientele, including mid-sized businesses, leading a...
How the Company Makes Money
Blue Owl primarily makes money by earning fees (and potentially performance-based compensation) for managing client capital across its investment strategies.
1) Management fees / advisory fees (recurring, AUM-based):
- The core revenue stream is ...
Blue Owl Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong fundraising, diversified platform growth, solid investment performance, and modest margin expansion, while acknowledging headline-driven redemption activity, softer retail flows, rising LTVs in software, and some near-term revenue outcome uncertainty. On balance, the business fundamentals — sizable LTM fundraising ($57B), strong LTM returns across strategies, growing real assets and digital infrastructure pipelines, and modest FRE margin expansion — outweigh the contained near-term retail/redemption headwinds and sector-specific valuation risks.Positive Updates
Top-Line and Earnings Growth
Revenues increased 13% year-over-year; fee related earnings (FRE) grew 14% and distributable earnings (DE) rose 11% versus 2025. Reported FRE per share was $0.25 and DE per share was $0.19 for Q1 2026.
Negative Updates
Industry-Wide Redemption Pressure and Retail Softness
Industry attention on private credit led to elevated redemption requests across the sector. Blue Owl experienced net outflows of ~ $170 million from OCIC and OTIC in Q1 (less than six basis points of beginning-of-period AUM); private wealth fundraising was softer year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line and Earnings Growth
Revenues increased 13% year-over-year; fee related earnings (FRE) grew 14% and distributable earnings (DE) rose 11% versus 2025. Reported FRE per share was $0.25 and DE per share was $0.19 for Q1 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated its 2026 targets and confidence: a 58.5% FRE margin goal and a $0.92 annual dividend (quarterly $0.23 declared for Q1 payable May 27); Q1 results included FRE $0.25/share and DE $0.19/share while revenues rose 13%, FRE +14% and DE +11% year-over-year. Fundraising and AUM metrics were highlighted—$57 billion raised over the last 12 months and $11 billion in Q1 (institutional = $6.1 billion, ~2/3 of equity; 47% to credit, 40% real assets, 13% GP strategic; 33 new institutional clients); AUM not yet paying fees = $30 billion (~$350 million of expected annual management fees, ~14% embedded growth). They closed BOSE and ASOP 9 at roughly $3 billion each, reported direct lending LTM gross returns of 8.5% (alternative credit 11%, net lease 14.7%, OCIC 9.1% since inception), direct lending LTM growth/net originations of $39.4B/$8.2B, Q1 repaymts $6.4B (>$27B in 2025), average annual loss rate ~12 bps, LTVs moved into the low‑40s (software from low‑30s to low‑40s), real assets AUM $85B (+27% YoY) with net lease pipeline ~$50B and digital infrastructure pipeline >$100B, and modest net outflows from OCIC/OTIC of ~ $170M (under 6 bps of beginning AUM).Blue Owl Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.99B | 2.87B | 2.30B | 1.73B | 1.37B | 823.88M |
| Gross Profit | 1.83B | 1.59B | 1.28B | 860.97M | 475.04M | -673.11M |
| EBITDA | 956.98M | 941.12M | 866.04M | 632.65M | 269.67M | -1.73B |
| Net Income | 130.18M | 78.83M | 109.58M | 54.34M | -9.29M | -376.17M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.33B | 12.47B | 10.99B | 8.82B | 8.89B | 8.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 169.06M | 194.51M | 152.09M | 104.16M | 68.08M | 42.57M |
| Total Debt | 532.32M | 3.86B | 2.98B | 2.00B | 1.86B | 1.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.72B | 6.41B | 5.19B | 3.54B | 3.34B | 2.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.00B | 2.21B | 2.13B | 1.53B | 1.60B | 1.66B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.32B | 1.20B | 935.37M | 881.24M | 662.91M | 276.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.38B | 1.26B | 999.55M | 949.14M | 728.45M | 281.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -91.58M | -241.28M | -638.14M | -118.03M | -485.22M | -1.60B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.24B | -972.33M | -313.48M | -795.03M | -217.72M | 1.35B |
Blue Owl Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
9.45
Price Trends
9.55
Positive
9.34
Positive
11.56
Negative
Market Momentum
0.27
Negative
73.53
Negative
93.03
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OWL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.61, below the 50-day MA of 9.55, and below the 200-day MA of 11.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.53 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OWL.
Blue Owl Capital Risk Analysis
Blue Owl Capital disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Owl Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $158.90B | 28.39 | 30.28% | 3.02% | 27.99% | 20.33% | |
72 Outperform | $16.06B | 83.88 | 6.06% | 9.58% | 14.13% | -4.48% | |
68 Neutral | $91.07B | 30.19 | 9.92% | 0.75% | 28.11% | 48.98% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $16.78B | 53.73 | 12.56% | 5.23% | 11.60% | 28307.69% | |
63 Neutral | $42.25B | 56.68 | 14.54% | 3.90% | 46.89% | 21.89% | |
54 Neutral | $16.57B | 30.23 | 9.65% | 3.08% | -26.37% | -49.86% |
* Financial Sector Average
OWL
Blue Owl Capital
11.16
-6.90
-38.21%
KKR
KKR & Co
106.56
-37.61
-26.09%
BX
Blackstone Group
134.68
-29.17
-17.80%
CG
Carlyle Group
48.91
-9.97
-16.93%
ARES
Ares Management
138.57
-43.27
-23.79%
TPG
TPG
46.32
-8.40
-15.35%
Blue Owl Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Blue Owl Capital Posts Strong Q2 2026 Growth
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Blue Owl Capital reported second-quarter 2026 results showing continued growth and strong investment performance across its diversified platforms and geographies. Co-CEOs Doug Ostrover and Marc Lipschultz highlighted that assets ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Blue Owl Capital Stockholders Approve Directors and Auditor
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
On June 4, 2026, Blue Owl Capital Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders, with holders of Class A, C and D common shares voting together and representing 6.07 billion of the 6.27 billion eligible votes. The company’s multi-class struct...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.