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Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)
:OWL
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Blue Owl Capital
(NYSE:OWL)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(11.05%Upside)
Positive Factors
Earnings Growth
Analyst maintains Buy rating on OWL due to bullish views on long-term EPS growth trajectory and potential for valuation expansion.
Global Expansion
OWL's global retail distribution effort is a leader, with a strong focus on expanding in Asia.
Growth Opportunities
The acquisition of IPI is expected to account for 4%-5% of 2025 firmwide management fees and FRE, with healthy growth in coming years.
Negative Factors
Market Competition
Bank deregulation could increase competition in the private credit market, impacting investment-grade markets.
Mergers and Acquisitions
Potential headwind for OWL includes mergers and acquisitions which may bring lower margins in acquired companies.
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$29.16B
Dividend Yield4.76%
Average Volume (3M)7.07M
Price to Earnings (P/E)190.4
Beta (1Y)1.66
Revenue Growth32.99%
EPS Growth8.06%
CountryUS
Employees1,200
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength79
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding625,652,400
10 Day Avg. Volume5,329,981
30 Day Avg. Volume7,074,580
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio6.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.08
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.23Price Target Upside22.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBlue Owl Capital Inc. operates as an asset manager. It offers permanent capital base solutions that enables it to offer a holistic platform to middle market companies, large alternative asset managers, and corporate real estate owners and tenants. The company provides direct lending products that offer private credit products comprising diversified, technology, first lien, and opportunistic lending to middle-market companies; GP capital solutions products, which offers capital solutions, including GP minority equity investments, GP debt financing, and professional sports minority investments to large private capital managers; and real estate products that focuses on structuring sale-leaseback transactions, which includes triple net leases. It offers its solutions through permanent capital vehicles, as well as long-dated private funds. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyBlue Owl Capital makes money through its diversified revenue streams across its core segments: Direct Lending, GP Capital Solutions, and Real Estate. In Direct Lending, the company generates income by providing loans to middle-market companies, earning interest and fees on these lending facilities. The GP Capital Solutions segment involves providing capital to private equity managers, with revenue generated through management fees and performance-based incentives. In the Real Estate segment, Blue Owl Capital earns money by managing real estate investments and collecting management fees and potential performance fees. Additionally, the firm benefits from strategic partnerships and a broad investor base, which contribute significantly to its earnings through asset management fees and investment returns.
Blue Owl Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 3.22%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted Blue Owl Capital's record fundraising, robust FRE and DE growth, successful mergers, and a diversified investor base, which paints a positive picture of the company's performance and resilience. However, challenges in the syndicated market and transaction fee volatility, along with global expansion risks, present areas to monitor. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, suggesting a strong performance and strategic positioning.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Fundraising and Capital Deployment
Blue Owl Capital reported a record equity raise of $27.5 billion in 2024, which is about 75% higher than 2023. Including debt, they raised over $47 billion, also a record for the company.
Strong Fee Related Earnings (FRE) and Distributable Earnings (DE) Growth
The company reported a 26% FRE growth for the year, with management fees growing at over a 35% annual growth rate since listing as a public company.
Successful Mergers and New Product Launches
The merger of OTF and OTF2 was completed, making OTF the largest technology-focused BDC in the public market. Additionally, a new alternative credit product focused on the wealth market is expected to close its private phase fundraise in the summer.
Diversified and Global Investor Base
Over the past 12 months, Blue Owl Capital raised nearly $30 billion of equity, an increase of over 75% from the prior year, with a significant portion coming from new investors and international markets.
Prominent Performance in Real Assets
The Digital Infrastructure Fund 3 reached its hard cap of $7 billion, nearly double the size of the prior fund, demonstrating strong demand in the real assets segment.
Negative Updates
Challenges in the Syndicated Market
The syndicated market essentially shut down, affecting the balance between market share gains in private credit and the impact of lower M&A activity on capital deployment.
Higher Transaction Fee Volatility
Transaction fees were lower this quarter compared to the last, reflecting the least predictable part of the business, although it remains a small component of overall earnings.
Potential Risks in Global Expansion
While Blue Owl has a strong U.S. focus, there are challenges in global expansion, particularly in markets with heightened geopolitical tensions, such as Asia.
Company Guidance
During Blue Owl Capital's Q1 2025 earnings call, significant guidance was provided, highlighting several key metrics and strategic directions for the company. Blue Owl reported fee-related earnings (FRE) of $0.23 per share and distributable earnings (DE) of $0.21 per share for Q4 2024, with full-year 2024 FRE and DE at $0.86 and $0.77 per share, respectively. The company declared an annual fixed dividend of $0.9 for 2025, marking a 25% increase from the prior year. Blue Owl achieved a record equity raise of $27.5 billion in 2024, up 75% from 2023, and deployed $52 billion in credit, driving a 26% FRE growth. Management fees grew at an annual rate of over 35% since going public, supported by a robust business model where approximately 90% of management fees are derived from permanent capital. Looking forward, Blue Owl anticipates continued fee growth from over $23 billion in assets under management (AUM) set to begin generating management fees, driving an incremental $290 million in revenue. Additionally, the successful merger of OTF and OTF2 is expected to contribute approximately $135 million in annual management fees. The company also highlighted a strong performance in direct lending with a gross origination of $13 billion, and an impressive 13 basis point average annual realized loss rate, showcasing its rigorous underwriting standards.Blue Owl Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Blue Owl Capital exhibits robust revenue growth and profitability, with strong operational margins and efficient cash flow generation. The balance sheet is stable, but there is room for improvement in return on equity. Overall, the financial position is solid with opportunities for enhanced profitability.Income Statement
Blue Owl Capital has shown significant revenue growth, with a revenue increase from $1.36 billion in 2022 to $2.47 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Its gross profit margin improved to 51.0% in TTM, indicating strong cost management. The net profit margin at 4.9% shows profitability, although it could be improved further. The EBIT margin of 18.5% and EBITDA margin of 26.9% are solid, reflecting good operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18 in TTM, suggesting low leverage risk. The equity ratio stands at 19.0%, indicating a moderate level of financial stability. However, the return on equity (ROE) of 5.2% could be more robust, reflecting room for improvement in generating returns on equity.70
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows strong operating cash flow of $969.9 million in TTM, with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 8.0, indicating efficient cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is an impressive 7.4, demonstrating robust cash flow relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate has slightly declined, suggesting a need for consistent cash flow improvement.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.47B | 2.30B | 1.73B | 1.37B | 823.88M | 249.81M |
| Gross Profit | 1.26B | 1.02B | 860.97M | 475.04M | -673.11M | 9.08M |
| EBITDA | 662.07M | 866.04M | 632.65M | 269.67M | -1.73B | -58.05M |
| Net Income | 121.16M | 109.58M | 54.34M | -9.29M | -376.17M | -77.83M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.29B | 10.99B | 8.82B | 8.89B | 8.27B | 121.60M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 97.62M | 152.09M | 104.16M | 68.08M | 42.57M | 11.63M |
| Total Debt | 3.60B | 2.98B | 2.00B | 1.86B | 1.26B | 356.39M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.86B | 5.19B | 3.54B | 3.34B | 2.42B | 622.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.34B | 2.13B | 1.53B | 1.60B | 1.66B | -507.69M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 898.51M | 935.37M | 881.24M | 662.91M | 276.40M | 4.58M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 969.89M | 999.55M | 949.14M | 728.45M | 281.66M | 5.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -834.37M | -638.14M | -118.03M | -485.22M | -1.60B | -652.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -193.66M | -313.48M | -795.03M | -217.72M | 1.35B | -295.00K |
Blue Owl Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
18.91
Price Trends
18.89
Positive
19.10
Negative
20.84
Negative
Market Momentum
0.14
Positive
46.68
Neutral
49.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OWL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.11, above the 50-day MA of 18.89, and below the 200-day MA of 20.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OWL.
Blue Owl Capital Risk Analysis
Blue Owl Capital disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Blue Owl Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $170.67B | 26.76 | 14.37% | 1.89% | 11.73% | 4.76% | |
72 Outperform | $29.16B | 190.43 | 4.62% | 4.76% | 32.99% | 8.06% | |
71 Outperform | $57.93B | 102.51 | 12.97% | 2.52% | 19.02% | -22.75% | |
70 Outperform | $196.54B | 49.01 | 34.07% | 2.30% | 22.06% | 16.57% | |
70 Outperform | $21.07B | 19.71 | 20.38% | 2.40% | 81.86% | ― | |
65 Neutral | €8.87B | 12.50 | 6.47% | 3.83% | 14.85% | 6.12% | |
63 Neutral | $20.56B | ― | 0.24% | 2.95% | 46.69% | -98.56% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
OWL
Blue Owl Capital
18.91
1.75
10.20%
BLK
BlackRock
1,101.64
296.24
36.78%
BX
Blackstone Group
162.00
33.09
25.67%
CG
Carlyle Group
58.35
15.56
36.36%
ARES
Ares Management
177.37
35.13
24.70%
TPG
TPG
55.64
10.87
24.28%
Blue Owl Capital Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Blue Owl Capital Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 9, 2025
On June 9, 2025, Blue Owl Capital Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. The stockholders elected Class I directors for three-year terms, ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the 2025 fiscal year, and approved executive compensation for the 2024 fiscal year. Additionally, a three-year frequency for future advisory votes on executive compensation was established.
The most recent analyst rating on (OWL) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Owl Capital stock, see the OWL Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.