Oncology Institute (TOI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $254.81M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.52
• Revenue Growth: 21.67%
• EPS Growth: 16.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 825
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 98,381,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,001,104
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,707,515
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.06
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.68
• 1Y Price Target: $6.67
• Price Target Upside: 73.16% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $636.17M

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▼(-22.08% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial health (losses and negative equity) and bearish technicals (trading below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a more constructive earnings-call outlook with raised guidance and improving adjusted EBITDA trends, while valuation is difficult to assess due to negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Growing value-based/capitated revenue and payer partnerships

Expanding delegated capitation and a projected 29% rise in capitated revenue create more predictable, recurring revenue and shift mix toward care-management fees and performance payments. This reduces fee-for-service volatility, strengthens payer relationships, and supports durable margin improvement and planning.

Rapid specialty pharmacy growth and higher attachment

Strong pharmacy growth diversifies revenue away from low-margin fee-for-service activity into higher-repeat dispense revenue and improves patient retention (pharmacy attachment). Vertical integration of pharmacy services supports negotiating leverage with payers and creates a durable, higher-margin customer lifecycle revenue stream.

Improving adjusted EBITDA trajectory toward profitability

Material quarter-over-quarter EBITDA improvement and a first profitable month demonstrate operating leverage and execution on cost/revenue initiatives. Coupled with management guidance toward EBITDA-positive Q4 and FCF positive in 2026, this trend supports a sustainable path to self-funded growth and lower financing dependence.

Negative Factors

Negative stockholders' equity and solvency risk

Negative equity signals cumulative losses that erode the capital base, creating solvency concerns and limiting access to traditional financing. This constrains capacity to underwrite capitation risk, pursue M&A, absorb payment delays, and raises the likelihood of covenant stress absent sustained cash generation.

Persistent unprofitability and low gross margins

Continued negative profitability and sub-15% gross margin indicate structural margin pressure from payor mix, cost of clinical services, or pricing limits. Low margins reduce the company's ability to cover fixed costs, fund capitation exposures, and invest in growth without dilutive capital or improved operating efficiency.

Operational and revenue risk from cybersecurity/billing disruptions

Vendor cyber incidents that delay claims submission and force reserves directly impair cash conversion and collections. Recurrent IT/vendor fragility raises ongoing operational risk, can increase bad-debt and reserve volatility, and undermines the stable cash flows needed to support capitation contracts and long-term payer confidence.

Oncology Institute Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Oncology Institute, Inc., an oncology company, provides medical oncology services in the United States. Its services include physician services, in-house infusion and dispensary, clinical trial services, radiation, outpatient stem cell transplants and transfusions programs, and patient support. The company also offers and manages clinical trial services, such as managing clinical trials, palliative care programs, and stem cell transplants services. It serves adult and senior cancer patients. The company operates 67 clinic locations. The Oncology Institute, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is based in Cerritos, California.

How the Company Makes Money

The Oncology Institute generates revenue primarily through patient services, which include consultations, diagnostic testing, and treatment therapies such as chemotherapy and radiation. A significant portion of their income comes from reimbursement agreements with insurance companies, Medicare, and Medicaid, as they provide care to a diverse patient base. Additionally, TOI may earn revenue through partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for clinical trials, where they receive funding for conducting research studies and offering access to new treatment options. The institute's focus on innovation and research also allows it to apply for grants and funding from various health organizations, further contributing to its earnings.

Oncology Institute Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is positive, but profitability remains weak with negative net profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet is a major risk due to negative stockholders’ equity (implying elevated solvency/leverage concerns), and cash flow is still negative despite strong free cash flow growth off a low base.

Income Statement

The Oncology Institute shows a mixed performance in its income statement. Revenue growth is positive at 8.64% TTM, indicating some expansion. However, profitability metrics are concerning, with negative net profit and EBIT margins, reflecting ongoing operational challenges. The gross profit margin is relatively low at 14.82% TTM, suggesting limited pricing power or high cost of goods sold.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential solvency issues. Return on equity is positive at 21.04% TTM, but this is misleading due to negative equity. The equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, highlighting financial distress.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some improvement in free cash flow growth at 110.56% TTM, but overall cash flow remains negative. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting some efficiency in converting earnings to cash, albeit from a negative base.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	461.04M	393.41M	324.24M	252.48M	203.00M	187.51M
Gross Profit	68.31M	54.00M	59.57M	52.09M	40.85M	36.88M
EBITDA	-44.80M	-53.83M	-54.28M	-67.60M	-42.04M	-11.29M
Net Income	-66.28M	-64.66M	-83.07M	152.00K	-10.93M	-14.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	163.62M	172.72M	209.24M	261.67M	203.44M	65.69M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	27.66M	49.67M	82.86M	73.81M	114.30M	6.00M
Total Debt	27.36M	123.15M	119.67M	108.18M	183.00K	11.93M
Total Liabilities	175.89M	169.13M	152.22M	138.49M	99.28M	37.59M
Stockholders Equity	-12.27M	3.59M	57.02M	123.17M	104.16M	28.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-27.53M	-30.33M	-40.88M	-67.28M	-35.73M	-686.00K
Operating Cash Flow	-23.63M	-26.54M	-36.31M	-61.76M	-32.68M	508.00K
Investing Cash Flow	-3.77M	46.21M	62.64M	-131.61M	-12.15M	-8.84M
Financing Cash Flow	7.66M	-3.49M	-6.85M	92.21M	154.01M	11.89M

Oncology Institute Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TOI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.33, above the 50-day MA of 3.39, and above the 200-day MA of 3.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TOI.

Oncology Institute Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TALK	65 Neutral	$644.40M	159.43	3.74%	―	18.37%	―
EHAB	61 Neutral	$557.69M	-44.51	-2.10%	―	1.02%	89.58%
CYH	54 Neutral	$429.41M	1.28	―	―	0.74%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CCRN	48 Neutral	$291.89M	-18.45	-3.76%	―	-22.14%	-787.87%
TOI	46 Neutral	$254.81M	-4.03	-3407.86%	―	21.67%	16.74%
AGL	46 Neutral	$285.77M	-0.88	-73.31%	―	5.21%	5.21%

Oncology Institute Corporate Events

Oncology Institute Adds Independent Director and Audit Chair

On January 2, 2026, The Oncology Institute, Inc. filled a vacancy on its board of directors by appointing Mark D. Stolper, a veteran public-company executive and current CFO of RadNet, Inc., as an independent director and chairman of the audit committee, a move publicly announced on January 5, 2026. Stolper, who will serve as the audit committee’s designated financial expert and participate in the company’s standard non-employee director compensation program, brings extensive capital markets, financial planning, and healthcare services experience that is expected to bolster TOI’s financial oversight and support its next phase of growth in value-based oncology care.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOI) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncology Institute stock, see the TOI Stock Forecast page.

Oncology Institute Announces Board Member Resignation

On December 1, 2025, The Oncology Institute announced the resignation of Gabe Ling from its Board of Directors, effective the same day. The resignation is not due to any disagreements with the company. A search for new independent directors with expertise in healthcare and value-based care has been initiated to enhance the board’s capabilities and support the company’s mission and growth goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOI) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncology Institute stock, see the TOI Stock Forecast page.

Oncology Institute Projects Strong 2025 Revenue Growth

The Oncology Institute has released an investor presentation highlighting its strategic plans and financial outlook. The company anticipates over 20% revenue growth in 2025 and aims to achieve EBITDA positive by the fourth quarter of 2025. The presentation outlines multiple growth channels, including strategic M&A, expanding contracts, and increasing specialty pharmacy services, which are expected to enhance the company’s market positioning and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOI) stock is a Hold with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncology Institute stock, see the TOI Stock Forecast page.

Oncology Institute Reports Cybersecurity Incident Impact

On November 3, 2025, The Oncology Institute, Inc. announced a cybersecurity incident involving an IT software provider that could delay fee-for-service collections. The delay is expected to be brief and immaterial, with no evidence of compromised patient information. The company is working with the provider to mitigate the impact and restore normal billing operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncology Institute stock, see the TOI Stock Forecast page.