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Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI)
:TOI
US Market

Oncology Institute (TOI) AI Stock Analysis

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Oncology Institute

(NASDAQ:TOI)

Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-6.25%Downside)
The Oncology Institute's stock score is primarily affected by its weak financial performance, with significant challenges in profitability and cash flow. Positive technical momentum and strategic earnings call highlights provide some optimism, while the upcoming PIPE financing may bolster future growth prospects.
Positive Factors
Business Model
TOI can help deliver significant cost savings with lower inpatient admissions and healthcare costs, while providing high-quality, well-managed oncology services.
Expansion and Growth
TOI continues to expand into new markets and increase the number of patients served, driven by macro trends and a differentiated business model.
Financial Performance
Margins are expected to improve as TOI signed an improved contract, reduced SG&A costs, and is focusing on driving earnings, aiming for positive EBITDA and FCF.
Negative Factors
Revenue Model Shift
TOI is working to transition some patients from a fee-for-service model to value-based-care, with ~46% of revenue in 2024 coming from VBC contracts.

Oncology Institute (TOI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Oncology Institute Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) is a healthcare services company focused on providing comprehensive, patient-centric cancer care. With a network of clinics, TOI operates in the oncology sector, offering an array of services including medical oncology, radiation oncology, and supportive care. The company's core mission is to improve the quality of life for cancer patients by delivering personalized treatment plans and access to cutting-edge therapies.
How the Company Makes MoneyThe Oncology Institute, Inc. makes money primarily through providing medical services to patients diagnosed with cancer. Its revenue model is based on billing for patient consultations, treatment sessions, and various oncology-related services. Revenue streams include payments from private insurance companies, government healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid, and direct payments from patients. TOI may also generate income through partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for clinical trials and research initiatives, although these are typically supplementary to its main revenue from clinical services. Additionally, TOI continuously seeks to expand its clinic network, which could contribute to increased patient volume and, subsequently, higher revenue.

Oncology Institute Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 35.02%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong start to 2025 with significant revenue growth and improvements in dispensary segment performance, gross profit, and SG&A reduction. However, challenges remain with adjusted EBITDA loss, net loss, and the revenue impact from outsourcing the clinical trials program. Despite these challenges, the overall trajectory and strategic initiatives indicate a focus on future profitability.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 10% versus the prior year period, reaching $104.4 million.
Dispensary Segment Performance
The Dispensary segment grew by 24.2%, contributing $49.3 million in revenue and over $9 million in gross profit in Q1.
Capitated Contract Wins
New capitated contract wins added over 80,000 lives in the first quarter with projected new revenue of approximately $50 million on an annualized basis.
Gross Profit Improvement
Gross profit in Q1 of 2025 was $17.2 million, an increase of 44.1% compared to Q1 of 2024.
SG&A Reduction
SG&A, including depreciation and amortization, was $27.2 million in Q1 of 2025, a 9% decline compared to Q1 of 2024.
Debt Reduction and Capital Raise
Executed a partial paydown of convertible preferred debt of $20 million and a capital raise that added $16 million back to the balance sheet.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Loss
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $5.1 million, although this was within the upper end of guidance.
Clinical Trials Revenue Impact
Outsourcing of the clinical trials program to Helios will reduce full year revenue by $5 million due to deconsolidation of clinical research revenue.
Net Loss
Net loss was $19.6 million in Q1 2025, although this was an improvement compared to Q1 of 2024.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, The Oncology Institute reported a 10% increase in revenue compared to the same period in the previous year, with total revenue reaching $104.4 million. The company's retail Pharmacy and Dispensary business significantly contributed to this growth, generating $49.3 million in revenue and over $9 million in gross profit, representing a 20% year-over-year increase. The fee-for-service business also saw growth, with a 9% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 2% increase year-over-year. Additionally, the company signed new capitated contracts in Florida, California, and Nevada, adding over 80,000 lives and projecting approximately $50 million in new annualized revenue. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.1 million, aligning with the upper end of their guidance, and achieved a gross profit of $17.2 million, a 44.1% increase from the previous year. The company anticipates continuing this positive trajectory towards profitability and cash flow positivity by the end of 2025, supported by strategic market expansions and operational efficiencies.

Oncology Institute Financial Statement Overview

Summary
The Oncology Institute shows significant revenue growth but faces profitability challenges. High leverage and negative margins present financial risks. Improvement efforts are needed in operational efficiency and debt reduction.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The Oncology Institute shows a mix of growth and challenges. While revenue has grown significantly over the years, increasing by 21.34% from 2023 to TTM, profitability remains an issue with persistent negative net income and EBIT margins. Gross profit margin improved to 35.12% in TTM, indicating better cost management. However, negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, at -15.28% and -13.68% respectively, reflect ongoing operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reveals a highly leveraged position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 8.37 in TTM, signaling potential financial risk. Stockholders' equity has drastically reduced to $3.59 million, contributing to a low equity ratio of 2.08%. Return on equity is negative, indicating inefficiencies in generating returns from shareholders' investments.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis highlights difficulties in cash generation, with negative operating and free cash flow in TTM. Despite improved free cash flow from 2023 to TTM, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains negative, indicating cash flow issues. The firm needs to improve its cash management and operational profitability.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
403.15M393.41M324.24M252.48M203.00M187.51M
Gross Profit
59.28M54.00M59.57M52.09M40.85M36.88M
EBIT
-52.06M-60.12M-77.02M-72.01M-45.86M-8.20M
EBITDA
-46.70M-50.88M-70.45M8.40M-7.94M-11.29M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-64.36M-64.66M-83.07M1.66M-10.93M-14.32M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
39.74M49.67M82.86M73.81M114.30M6.00M
Total Assets
164.00M172.72M209.24M263.75M203.44M65.69M
Total Debt
102.31M123.15M119.67M108.18M183.00K11.93M
Net Debt
62.57M73.48M86.19M94.17M-114.12M5.93M
Total Liabilities
158.93M169.13M152.22M139.07M99.28M37.59M
Stockholders Equity
5.07M3.59M57.02M124.68M104.16M28.10M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-19.15M-30.33M-40.88M-67.28M-35.73M-685.88K
Operating Cash Flow
-15.64M-26.54M-36.31M-61.76M-32.68M508.24K
Investing Cash Flow
26.62M46.21M62.64M-131.61M-12.15M-8.84M
Financing Cash Flow
-7.29M-3.49M-6.85M92.21M154.01M11.89M

Oncology Institute Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.20
Price Trends
50DMA
2.38
Positive
100DMA
1.58
Positive
200DMA
0.93
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.23
Positive
RSI
61.36
Neutral
STOCH
74.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TOI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.94, above the 50-day MA of 2.38, and above the 200-day MA of 0.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TOI.

Oncology Institute Risk Analysis

Oncology Institute disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oncology Institute reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
There can be no assurance that we will be able to comply with the continued listing standards of Nasdaq. Q3, 2024

Oncology Institute Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
NHNHC
76
Outperform
$1.62B15.1411.19%2.33%19.16%31.92%
EHEHC
68
Neutral
$12.25B25.0825.33%0.54%11.21%30.38%
SESEM
64
Neutral
$1.97B11.3910.38%2.45%-8.86%-36.22%
60
Neutral
$2.07B11.096.35%5.48%
CYCYH
59
Neutral
$538.78M39.18%1.05%-288.07%
TOTOI
55
Neutral
$285.42M-227.77%17.64%13.86%
53
Neutral
$5.25B3.24-45.38%2.81%16.79%-0.06%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TOI
Oncology Institute
3.20
2.75
611.11%
ACHC
Acadia Healthcare
22.60
-49.18
-68.51%
CYH
Community Health
3.83
-0.02
-0.52%
EHC
Encompass Health
121.27
36.60
43.23%
NHC
National Healthcare
104.38
1.91
1.86%
SEM
Select Medical
15.24
-2.54
-14.29%

Oncology Institute Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Oncology Institute Explores PIPE Financing Opportunity
Neutral
May 19, 2025

The Oncology Institute, Inc. has prepared an investor presentation to explore a potential private placement of securities, known as PIPE Financing. The presentation highlights the company’s unique approach in the oncology market, emphasizing its capability to manage population-level care contracts and its focus on reducing patient healthcare costs. The company’s strategy positions it to capitalize on the growing oncology market, driven by factors such as reimbursement misalignment and high-cost drugs.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOI) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oncology Institute stock, see the TOI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Oncology Institute Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 8, 2025

On May 7, 2025, The Oncology Institute held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where three proposals were considered. The stockholders elected eight directors, ratified the appointment of BDO USA, LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm, and approved a proposal to amend the company’s certificate of incorporation to potentially effect a reverse stock split.

Executive/Board Changes
Oncology Institute COO Jeremy Castle Resigns
Neutral
May 7, 2025

On May 2, 2025, Jeremy Castle announced his resignation as Chief Operating Officer of The Oncology Institute, Inc., effective May 30, 2025. His departure was not due to any disagreements with the company regarding its operations, policies, or practices.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Oncology Institute, Inc. Prepares for PIPE Financing
Positive
Mar 24, 2025

The Oncology Institute, Inc. has prepared an investor presentation to discuss a potential private placement of securities (PIPE Financing). The presentation is intended for qualified institutional buyers and accredited investors, emphasizing confidentiality and disclaiming any offer or solicitation of securities. The company highlights its unique market position and the significant growth potential in the oncology sector, driven by complex clinical pathways and high-cost drugs. The Institute’s integrated approach aims to reduce patient healthcare costs and improve access to cutting-edge treatments.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.