tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Select Medical Holdings Corp. (SEM)
NYSE:SEM
Advertisement

Select Medical (SEM) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
317 Followers

Top Page

SEM

Select Medical

(NYSE:SEM)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(10.85% Upside)
Select Medical's overall stock score is driven by a stable financial performance with challenges in revenue growth and leverage. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, while valuation metrics indicate reasonable pricing. The earnings call and corporate events provide positive sentiment, with strategic expansions and leadership changes supporting future growth.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The 5% revenue growth indicates a positive trend in business operations, suggesting effective strategies in expanding market reach and service offerings.
Leadership Change
The new CEO appointment is part of a strategic succession plan, potentially bringing fresh perspectives and driving long-term growth and operational improvements.
Inpatient Rehab Segment Performance
Strong performance in the inpatient rehab segment suggests a robust demand for services, supporting revenue stability and growth in a key business area.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline in Critical Illness Recovery
The decline in revenue from critical illness recovery highlights challenges in adapting to regulatory changes, potentially impacting future profitability.
High Leverage
Significant leverage can strain financial flexibility, posing risks during economic downturns and potentially limiting strategic investments.
Declining Free Cash Flow
A decline in free cash flow growth could hinder the company's ability to fund operations and investments, affecting long-term financial health.

Select Medical (SEM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Select Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSelect Medical Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and occupational health centers in the United States. The company's Critical Illness Recovery Hospital segment consists of hospitals that provide services for heart failure, infectious disease, respiratory failure and pulmonary disease, surgery requiring prolonged recovery, renal disease, neurological events, and trauma. Its Rehabilitation Hospital segment offers therapy and rehabilitation treatments, including rehabilitative services for brain and spinal cord injuries, strokes, amputations, neurological disorders, orthopedic conditions, pediatric congenital or acquired disabilities, and cancer. The company's Outpatient Rehabilitation segment operates rehabilitation clinics that provide physical, occupational, and speech rehabilitation programs and services; and specialized programs, such as functional programs for work related injuries, hand therapy, post-concussion rehabilitation, pediatric and cancer rehabilitation, and athletic training services. Its Concentra segment operates and provides occupational health centers and contract services at employer worksites that deliver occupational medicine, consumer health, physical therapy, and wellness services. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 104 critical illness recovery hospitals in 28 states; 30 rehabilitation hospitals in 12 states; 1,881 outpatient rehabilitation clinics in 38 states and the District of Columbia; and 518 occupational health centers in 41 states, and 134 onsite clinics at employer worksites states. Select Medical Holdings Corporation was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneySelect Medical generates revenue primarily through its healthcare services, which are reimbursed by government programs, private insurance payers, and self-paying patients. Key revenue streams include payments for inpatient rehabilitation services, outpatient therapy sessions, and long-term acute care hospital services. The company also benefits from contracts with various insurance companies and partnerships with healthcare systems, which provide a steady flow of patients. Additionally, Select Medical's business model capitalizes on the growing demand for rehabilitation services as the population ages and more individuals require specialized post-acute care.

Select Medical Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed sentiment with notable achievements in hospital rankings, expansion, and financial performance. However, there are significant challenges in the critical illness recovery segment due to regulatory issues and Medicare rate reductions.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Recognition of Rehabilitation Hospitals
Eight of Select Medical's hospitals were recognized among the nation's best by U.S. News & World Report, with the Kessler Institute for Rehabilitation ranking #4.
Expansion and Development in Rehabilitation Division
Opened a second hospital with UPMC in Pennsylvania, expanded facilities in Florida and Missouri, and announced plans to add 382 rehab beds by 2027.
Stock Repurchase Program
Repurchased over 5.7 million shares for $85.1 million, with a declared cash dividend of $0.0625 per share.
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Consolidated revenue grew nearly 5% to $1.3 billion, with earnings per share rising 88% to $0.32.
Inpatient Rehab Segment Performance
Revenue rose 17% to $313.8 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing nearly 15% to $71 million.
Outpatient Rehabilitation Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA increased 6.1% year-over-year, with margin improving to 9.3%.
Negative Updates
Critical Illness Recovery Hospital Segment Challenges
Revenue declined by 1% due to regulatory changes, with adjusted EBITDA dropping 22% year-over-year.
LTAC Reimbursement System Issues
Facing challenges due to high-cost outlier threshold and regulatory changes, resulting in significant reduction in reimbursement.
Impact of Medicare Rate Reductions
Reduction in Medicare physician fee schedule rates led to a $3 million decrease in revenue for the quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Select Medical Holdings Corporation's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance and updates on its operations and financial performance. The company plans to add 382 rehabilitation beds, including 294 consolidating beds and 88 non-consolidating beds, along with 30 critical illness beds by mid-2027. They anticipate opening several facilities, including a 45-bed hospital in Temple, Texas, and a 30-bed critical illness recovery hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, in Q3. Financially, Select Medical reported a 5% increase in revenue to $1.3 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $125.4 million. Earnings per share from continuing operations rose 88% to $0.32. The inpatient rehab hospital division saw a 17% revenue increase to $313.8 million, while the outpatient rehabilitation division experienced a 3.8% revenue growth. The critical illness recovery hospitals division's revenue declined by 1% to $601.1 million, primarily due to regulatory changes. The company repurchased 5.7 million shares at an average price of $14.86, totaling $85.1 million, and declared a $0.0625 per share dividend, payable on August 28, 2025. Select Medical reaffirmed its revenue outlook for 2025, expecting between $5.3 billion and $5.5 billion, and adjusted EBITDA between $510 million and $530 million.

Select Medical Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Select Medical demonstrates a stable but challenged financial position with declining revenues and moderate profitability. The balance sheet indicates high leverage, which could pose risks in economic downturns. Cash flow remains a strength, highlighting efficient cash management despite declining free cash flow. The company must focus on revenue growth and leverage reduction to improve its financial health.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The TTM shows a gross profit margin of 8.4% and a net profit margin of 3.2%, indicating moderate profitability. Revenue has declined in recent years, with a notable drop from 2023 to 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low at 0.7% and 5.7%, respectively, pointing to efficiency challenges. The overall income statement reflects stable but declining revenues with pressure on profit margins.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.61 in the TTM, suggesting significant leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is moderate at 8.2%, showing decent returns for shareholders. The equity ratio of 29.0% denotes a moderate reliance on equity financing, but high liabilities could pose risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
The cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.0 in the TTM is strong, indicating effective cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.3, also highlighting solid cash flow management despite capital expenditures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.77B5.19B6.66B6.33B6.20B5.53B
Gross Profit660.65M633.64M932.04M733.38M919.37M821.34M
EBITDA325.82M510.23M789.74M585.31M772.72M683.30M
Net Income136.83M214.04M243.49M158.99M402.23M259.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.74B5.61B7.69B7.67B7.36B7.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments52.35M59.69M142.97M97.91M74.31M577.06M
Total Debt2.88B2.70B4.96B5.12B4.72B4.50B
Total Liabilities3.74B3.61B6.12B6.31B6.03B6.40B
Stockholders Equity1.67B1.68B1.29B1.32B1.33B1.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow182.10M539.65M352.86M94.45M220.69M881.63M
Operating Cash Flow413.24M517.86M582.06M284.82M401.23M1.03B
Investing Cash Flow-236.27M-231.01M-268.48M-226.34M-256.59M-115.35M
Financing Cash Flow-235.78M-311.17M-327.48M-34.89M-647.38M-671.54M

Select Medical Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price12.63
Price Trends
50DMA
13.22
Negative
100DMA
14.19
Negative
200DMA
16.14
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.22
Positive
RSI
46.43
Neutral
STOCH
22.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.84, below the 50-day MA of 13.22, and below the 200-day MA of 16.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SEM.

Select Medical Risk Analysis

Select Medical disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Select Medical reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Select Medical Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
1.79B17.1910.26%2.07%25.19%13.44%
69
Neutral
$1.52B11.378.15%2.02%-16.10%-48.97%
69
Neutral
1.45B57.713.90%51.97%-64.10%
64
Neutral
2.02B14.544.52%5.64%0.00%
60
Neutral
2.79B-15.42-10.32%12.05%-432.59%
59
Neutral
2.00B-127.25-1.10%13.86%89.49%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SEM
Select Medical
12.63
-6.11
-32.60%
BKD
Brookdale Senior Living
8.01
1.16
16.93%
MD
Pediatrix Medical Group
16.59
5.72
52.62%
NHC
National Healthcare
119.07
-3.82
-3.11%
ASTH
Astrana Health
29.79
-28.05
-48.50%
AVAH
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings
8.46
2.96
53.82%

Select Medical Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Select Medical Appoints New CEO Thomas P. Mullin
Positive
Sep 2, 2025

On September 2, 2025, Select Medical Holdings Corporation announced the appointment of Thomas P. Mullin as the new Chief Executive Officer, effective September 1, 2025. This leadership change marks a significant transition as David S. Chernow steps down from the CEO position to become Vice Chairman of the Board. John A. Saich will assume the role of sole President, and John F. Duggan has been named Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary. These appointments highlight Select Medical’s commitment to its succession planning and growth strategy, aiming to enhance its operations and deliver value to stakeholders.

Shareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Select Medical Updates Bylaws for Proxy Compliance
Neutral
Aug 4, 2025

On July 30, 2025, Select Medical Holdings Corporation’s Board of Directors approved amendments to the company’s bylaws. These changes enhance procedural and disclosure requirements for stockholder nominations and proposals at meetings, aligning with SEC’s universal proxy rules. The amendments require stockholders to provide a proxy statement and evidence of soliciting proxies from holders of at least 67% of the voting power for director elections, impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder engagement.

Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Select Medical Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

Select Medical Holdings Corporation announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reporting a 4.5% increase in revenue to $1,339.6 million and a significant 53.8% rise in net income from continuing operations to $57.9 million compared to the previous year. The company also declared a cash dividend of $0.0625 per share, payable on August 28, 2025, and announced a stock repurchase program to buy back up to $1.0 billion worth of shares, reflecting its robust financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 10, 2025