Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (AVAH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.75B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.17M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: 15.48%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 33,500
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 208,911,380
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 984,061
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,172,531
• PEG Ratio: 0.89
• Price to Book (P/B): -7.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.44
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.14
• 1Y Price Target: $10.60
• Price Target Upside: 26.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(1.19% Upside)

Overall score reflects weak financial foundation (high leverage and low profitability) and only modest technical momentum, partially offset by strong recent operating performance, raised guidance, and a mid-range valuation.

Positive Factors

Raised revenue and EBITDA guidance

Management’s upward revision of 2025 results and issuance of initial 2026 guidance reflects durable improvement in underlying operations: stronger rate and volume dynamics plus cost initiatives. Higher recurring revenue and EBITDA outlook supports multi-quarter cash generation and reinvestment capacity, improving funding for strategic priorities.

Expansion of preferred payer agreements

Growing preferred payer coverage materially increases revenue predictability and authorization flow for private duty services. This structural shift reduces reimbursement uncertainty, strengthens negotiating leverage with managed care, and can sustainably improve utilization, margins, and cash collection timing across multiple quarters.

Improved free cash flow and liquidity

Material positive free cash flow and a sizable liquidity buffer improve the company’s ability to fund integration, invest in staffing and care capabilities, and service liabilities. Durable FCF supports operational stability and gives management flexibility to deleverage or pursue targeted growth initiatives over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Very high leverage

Extremely high debt-to-equity constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity risk. In a capital-intensive, reimbursement-driven business, leverage limits the firm’s ability to absorb payment delays, fund working capital for staffing, or pursue M&A without materially increasing financial strain over coming quarters.

Low profitability and historical losses

Persistently low margins and a history of negative net income indicate limited cushion against cost shocks; modest profitability limits retained earnings for reinvestment. In a sector facing wage pressure and reimbursement variability, small margins make sustained investment in staffing, compliance, and growth more difficult without external funding.

Regulatory/Medicaid uncertainty and labor headwinds

Ongoing caregiver hiring/retention issues and uncertainty around state Medicaid funding are structural risks that affect capacity, authorized hours, and reimbursement rates. These factors can depress volumes, raise labor costs, and complicate multi-quarter planning, intensifying pressure on margins and cash flows in a reimbursement-dependent model.

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc., a diversified home care platform company, provides private duty nursing (PDN), adult home health and hospice, home-based pediatric therapy, and enteral nutrition services in the United States. Its patient- centered care delivery platform allows patients to remain in their homes and minimizes the overutilization of high-cost care settings, such as hospitals. The company operates through three segments: Private Duty Services (PDS), Home Health & Hospice (HHH), and Medical Solutions (MS). The PDS segment offers PDN services, which include in-home skilled nursing services to medically fragile children; nursing services in school settings in which its caregivers accompany patients to school; services to patients in its pediatric day healthcare centers; and employer of record support and personal care services, as well as in-clinic and home-based pediatric therapy services, such as physical, occupational, and speech services. The HHH segment provides home health services, including in-home skilled nursing services; physical, occupational, and speech therapy services; and medical social and aide services, as well as hospice services for patients and their families when a life-limiting illness no longer responds to cure-oriented treatments. The MS segment offers enteral nutrition supplies and other products to adults and children delivered on a periodic or as-needed basis. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Aveanna Healthcare generates revenue primarily through the provision of home healthcare services billed to various payers, including private insurance, Medicaid, and Medicare. The company's revenue model is based on service contracts and reimbursement rates determined by these payers, which cover skilled nursing, therapy, and personal care services. Key revenue streams include hourly billing for nursing and therapy services, episodic payments for specific care episodes, and capitated payments for certain patient populations. Additionally, Aveanna's partnerships with healthcare providers and managed care organizations enhance their service offerings and can lead to increased patient referrals, further driving revenue growth. The company's focus on expanding its footprint in underserved markets and enhancing its service capabilities are also significant factors contributing to its earnings.

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: modest TTM revenue and free-cash-flow growth, but low profitability and very high leverage (debt-to-equity 135.67) weigh heavily on financial stability despite improving cash conversion.

Income Statement

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings shows a moderate revenue growth rate of 5.19% TTM, indicating some positive momentum. However, the net profit margin is low at 3.29% TTM, and historical net income has been negative, reflecting challenges in profitability. The gross profit margin is stable at 33.45% TTM, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are relatively low, suggesting limited operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has a very high debt-to-equity ratio of 135.67 TTM, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting poor returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low, suggesting limited financial stability and a reliance on debt financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics show some improvement, with a free cash flow growth rate of 5.09% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.22, indicating limited cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.92, suggesting better cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.29B	2.02B	1.90B	1.79B	1.68B	1.50B
Gross Profit	766.30M	635.54M	595.43M	553.23M	542.40M	454.51M
EBITDA	265.13M	187.38M	39.17M	-525.06M	-17.95M	61.47M
Net Income	75.46M	-10.93M	-134.52M	-662.03M	-117.04M	-57.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.81B	1.66B	1.61B	1.71B	2.33B	1.84B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	145.87M	84.29M	43.94M	19.22M	30.49M	137.34M
Total Debt	1.35B	1.50B	1.50B	1.36B	1.30B	1.23B
Total Liabilities	1.80B	1.79B	1.74B	1.72B	1.70B	1.58B
Stockholders Equity	9.91M	-122.09M	-127.44M	-4.17M	637.95M	267.17M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	82.52M	26.32M	16.56M	-60.41M	-27.30M	101.38M
Operating Cash Flow	89.54M	32.64M	22.67M	-48.40M	-11.35M	116.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.88M	-6.32M	-8.79M	-25.29M	-681.83M	-193.54M
Financing Cash Flow	-261.00K	14.03M	10.85M	62.42M	586.33M	210.94M

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVAH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.73, below the 50-day MA of 8.83, and above the 200-day MA of 7.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVAH.

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADUS	74 Outperform	$1.91B	22.15	8.58%	―	18.77%	6.88%
NHC	74 Outperform	$2.22B	21.63	9.94%	1.80%	23.74%	-18.99%
SEM	69 Neutral	$1.86B	17.22	5.57%	1.69%	-22.96%	-59.35%
PNTG	69 Neutral	$955.48M	36.51	10.87%	―	29.89%	10.33%
BKD	55 Neutral	$3.56B	-13.58	-214.33%	―	3.93%	-42.22%
AVAH	52 Neutral	$1.75B	23.33	―	―	15.48%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Corporate Events

Aveanna Healthcare Raises 2025 Outlook, Issues 2026 Guidance

On January 14, 2026, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings updated its full-year 2025 guidance for the fiscal year ended January 3, 2026, raising expected revenue to a range of $2.425 billion to $2.445 billion from prior guidance of more than $2.375 billion, projecting net income of $181 million to $220 million, and increasing its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $318 million to $322 million, with Normalized Adjusted EBITDA of $298 million to $302 million. The company also issued initial guidance for fiscal 2026, forecasting revenue between $2.54 billion and $2.56 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $318 million to $322 million, while cautioning that these figures are based on preliminary, unaudited data and that its use of non-GAAP measures such as Adjusted EBITDA and Normalized Adjusted EBITDA is intended to highlight core operating performance but may limit comparability and remains subject to final audit adjustments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVAH) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings stock, see the AVAH Stock Forecast page.

Aveanna Healthcare Updates Stockholders Agreement and Board

On November 13, 2025, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. amended its Stockholders Agreement, restricting certain executives from transferring common stock without pre-approval, while allowing other stockholders to transfer shares freely. Additionally, Christopher Gordon resigned as a Class II director, and Sam Weil, a Principal at Bain Capital, was appointed to fill the vacancy, bringing his expertise in healthcare investments to the board.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVAH) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings stock, see the AVAH Stock Forecast page.

Aveanna Healthcare Highlights Strong Financial Performance

On November 7, 2025, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings released a financial presentation to investors, highlighting its revenue of over $2.375 billion and an adjusted EBITDA exceeding $300 million. The presentation underscores Aveanna’s strategic use of its website for disseminating critical company information and emphasizes its strong market positioning with a diverse payor mix and no single payor contributing more than a specified percentage of revenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVAH) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings stock, see the AVAH Stock Forecast page.

Aveanna Healthcare Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings announced its third-quarter financial results for 2025, showing a significant improvement with a 22.2% increase in revenue to $621.9 million and a net income of $14.1 million compared to a net loss in the previous year. The company also revised its full-year 2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance upwards, reflecting sustained business momentum and successful strategic transformations, including the integration of Thrive Skilled Pediatric Care.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVAH) stock is a Buy with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings stock, see the AVAH Stock Forecast page.