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Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)
NYSE:BKD

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) AI Stock Analysis

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BKD

Brookdale Senior Living

(NYSE:BKD)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(6.48% Upside)
Brookdale Senior Living's overall stock score reflects a mix of challenges and opportunities. The most significant factor is the company's financial performance, which is weighed down by high leverage and weak profitability. However, positive technical indicators and strategic corporate changes, including new leadership and improved occupancy rates, provide a more optimistic outlook. The raised financial guidance and operational improvements highlighted in the earnings call further contribute to a balanced view, despite valuation concerns.

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Brookdale Senior Living Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBrookdale Senior Living (BKD) is a leading provider of senior living services in the United States, specializing in a range of residential care options including independent living, assisted living, Alzheimer's and dementia care, rehabilitation, and skilled nursing. With a significant number of communities across the country, Brookdale focuses on creating engaging and supportive environments tailored to the needs of seniors, offering a blend of hospitality and healthcare services.
How the Company Makes MoneyBrookdale Senior Living generates revenue primarily through the fees charged for its various senior living services. The company operates on a rental model where residents pay monthly fees that cover accommodations, amenities, and care services. Key revenue streams include independent living, assisted living, memory care, and skilled nursing facilities. Additionally, Brookdale may earn revenue from ancillary services such as rehabilitation and therapy. The company also benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers, insurance companies, and government programs, which can enhance its service offerings and patient referrals, contributing to its overall earnings.

Brookdale Senior Living Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong occupancy growth and significant improvements in adjusted EBITDA, leading to raised financial guidance. However, leverage levels remain high, though they have improved. Overall, the positive aspects of operational performance and strategic initiatives outweigh the challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Occupancy Growth
Occupancy for the quarter achieved a weighted average of 81.8% and 82.3% on a same community basis, the highest since the pandemic. There was a 38% improvement in communities with occupancy below 70% in just 2 quarters.
Adjusted EBITDA Increase
Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 increased 20% over the prior year and is up 23% year-to-date. Brookdale also generated positive adjusted free cash flow amounting to $21.8 million, a 57% increase compared to the prior year.
Raised Financial Guidance
Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $445 million-$455 million to $455 million-$460 million, with expectations to come above the midpoint of their RevPAR range of 5.25% to 6% year-over-year growth.
Portfolio Optimization
Brookdale plans to exit a total of 55 leased assets by year-end, with 43 already completed. This is expected to improve occupancy, RevPAR, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow.
SWAT-Team Approach Success
SWAT-team efforts have reduced the number of communities with occupancy below 70% from 143 in Q1 to 89 in Q3, a 38% improvement.
Negative Updates
Leverage Levels
Brookdale's adjusted annualized leverage at the end of the third quarter was 9.0x adjusted EBITDA, though improved from 9.9x at the end of last year.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
The discussion of financial results included non-GAAP financial measures, which may not fully align with GAAP results and require additional reconciliations.
Company Guidance
During Brookdale Senior Living's third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company announced an upward revision of its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance from a range of $445 million to $455 million to a new range of $455 million to $460 million, reflecting strong operational performance. The company also highlighted significant improvements in occupancy rates, with a consolidated occupancy of 83.8% and a same-store basis of 84.0% by the end of the quarter, marking the highest levels since the onset of the pandemic. This increase was driven by strategic initiatives such as a SWAT-team approach to operations and targeted pricing strategies. Furthermore, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter rose by 20% year-over-year, with positive free cash flow of $21.8 million, a 57% increase compared to the previous year. Brookdale plans to continue optimizing its portfolio, aiming to reduce leverage and reinvest in its communities, projecting mid-teen percentage annual growth in adjusted EBITDA over the coming years.

Brookdale Senior Living Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Brookdale Senior Living Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price10.80
Price Trends
50DMA
9.86
Positive
100DMA
8.81
Positive
200DMA
7.70
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.14
Positive
RSI
58.74
Neutral
STOCH
51.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.72, above the 50-day MA of 9.86, and above the 200-day MA of 7.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BKD.

Brookdale Senior Living Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$2.09B23.998.58%18.77%6.88%
74
Outperform
$2.18B21.679.94%1.78%23.74%-18.99%
73
Outperform
$1.02B38.8110.87%29.89%10.33%
61
Neutral
$2.51B-8.12-214.33%3.93%-42.22%
58
Neutral
$1.87B25.2215.48%
56
Neutral
$1.14B122.161.29%68.17%-85.42%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BKD
Brookdale Senior Living
10.67
5.67
113.40%
ADUS
Addus Homecare
112.07
-17.53
-13.53%
NHC
National Healthcare
141.67
30.47
27.40%
ASTH
Astrana Health
23.21
-11.88
-33.86%
PNTG
Pennant Group
29.36
2.06
7.55%
AVAH
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings
9.08
4.56
100.88%

Brookdale Senior Living Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Brookdale Senior Living Appoints New COO
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Brookdale Senior Living announced the appointment of Mary Sue Patchett as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective December 1, 2025. Patchett, who has 40 years of experience in senior living operations, previously held various leadership roles within the company and was instrumental in redesigning its regional operating structure. Her appointment is seen as a strategic move to enhance Brookdale’s operational performance and agility, with a focus on improving decision-making and resource allocation closer to residents, thereby enriching the lives of seniors and their families.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Brookdale Senior Living Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025

Brookdale Senior Living reported its third-quarter 2025 results, showing a significant increase in occupancy rates and adjusted EBITDA. Despite a net loss of $114.7 million due to a non-cash impairment charge, the company experienced a 20.4% growth in adjusted EBITDA and improved cash flow, reflecting strong demand for senior living services and strategic focus on profitability.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Brookdale Senior Living Reports September Occupancy Growth
Positive
Oct 8, 2025

Brookdale Senior Living reported an increase in occupancy rates for September 2025, with a weighted average occupancy of 82.5%, marking a 330 basis point increase year-over-year and a 70 basis point rise sequentially. The month-end consolidated occupancy reached 83.8%, reflecting a 60 basis point sequential increase, while the third quarter weighted average occupancy improved by 290 basis points year-over-year, indicating strong growth in the senior living sector.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Brookdale Senior Living Appoints New CEO Nikolas Stengle
Positive
Oct 2, 2025

On October 2, 2025, Brookdale Senior Living announced the appointment of Nikolas W. Stengle as the new Chief Executive Officer, effective October 6, 2025. Stengle, who brings extensive experience in senior living, healthcare, and hospitality, is expected to drive operational excellence and enhance the company’s industry leadership. His appointment follows a comprehensive search and is seen as a strategic move to capitalize on growth opportunities and increase shareholder value.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025