Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.65B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.12
• Revenue Growth: 3.93%
• EPS Growth: -42.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 24,480
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -0.17
• Shares Outstanding: 237,792,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,080,976
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,669,173
• PEG Ratio: -0.39
• Price to Book (P/B): -56.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.81
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 25.84
• 1Y Price Target: $19.38
• Price Target Upside: 28.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.27
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.06B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.50 ▲(2.51% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial health (ongoing losses, negative equity, and elevated leverage), partly offset by improving cash generation. Technicals are supportive with a strong trend and positive momentum, and the latest earnings call/guidance reinforced accelerating RevPAR and EBITDA growth expectations, but valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Occupancy recovery and RevPAR growth

Sustained occupancy above the ~80% inflection and multi-year RevPAR gains materially improve operating leverage for a senior housing operator. Higher utilization supports recurring fee revenue stability, better fixed-cost absorption, and durable margin expansion if occupancy and pricing trends persist.

Adjusted EBITDA expansion and multi-year guidance

Consistent double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and credible multi-year targets indicate improving operational efficiency and pricing power. Durable EBITDA improvement is central to deleveraging plans and can generate internal funding for CapEx and portfolio optimization if management sustains execution.

Improving cash generation (positive operating & free cash flow)

Conversion to positive operating and free cash flow provides a reliable source to fund prioritized CapEx, service debt, and support dispositions. Durable cash generation reduces refinancing pressure, strengthens liquidity optionality, and underpins management's plan to reduce leverage over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage and weakened equity cushion

High leverage and negative equity constrain financial flexibility, increase refinancing and covenant risk, and limit capacity for opportunistic investments. Durable deleveraging will require sustained EBITDA growth and asset sales; failure raises insolvency or restructuring risk in adverse cycles.

Ongoing net losses and inconsistent profitability

Persistent net losses erode retained earnings and equity, complicating balance-sheet repair. Inconsistent TTM profitability undermines confidence that reported EBITDA gains will sustainably translate to GAAP profit, limiting long-term capital accumulation and hindering confidence in sustained cash conversion.

Material cohort of underperforming communities

A sizable subset of low‑occupancy assets requires dispositions or intensive remediation, which consumes management bandwidth and capital. These assets depress aggregate margins and cash flow until resolved, and successful remediation or sale execution is necessary for durable margin recovery and portfolio stabilization.

Brookdale Senior Living Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. owns, manages, and operates senior living communities in the United States. It operates in three segments: Independent Living, Assisted Living and Memory Care, and Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs). The Independent Living segment owns or leases communities comprising independent and assisted living units in a single community that are primarily designed for middle to upper income seniors. The Assisted Living and Memory Care segment owns or leases communities consisting of freestanding multi-story communities and freestanding single-story communities, which offer housing and 24-hour assistance with activities of daily living for the Company's residents. This segment also operates memory care communities for residents with Alzheimer's and other dementias. The CCRCs segment owns or leases communities that provides various living arrangements, such as independent and assisted living, memory care, and skilled nursing; and services to accommodate various levels of physical ability and healthcare needs. It also manages communities on behalf of others. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned 347 communities, leased 299 communities, and managed 33 communities on behalf of others. Brookdale Senior Living Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Brookdale Senior Living generates revenue primarily through the fees charged for its various senior living services. The company operates on a rental model where residents pay monthly fees that cover accommodations, amenities, and care services. Key revenue streams include independent living, assisted living, memory care, and skilled nursing facilities. Additionally, Brookdale may earn revenue from ancillary services such as rehabilitation and therapy. The company also benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers, insurance companies, and government programs, which can enhance its service offerings and patient referrals, contributing to its overall earnings.

Brookdale Senior Living Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is improving (positive operating cash flow and TTM free cash flow turning positive), but overall fundamentals remain pressured by ongoing net losses and a high-risk balance sheet with negative equity and elevated leverage. Inconsistencies noted in TTM profitability metrics also reduce confidence in the apparent improvement.

Income Statement

Revenue has been growing steadily (about 4% in 2023 and 2024, accelerating to ~264% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). Profitability is the key issue: net income remains negative across recent periods, with net margins around -6% to -9% (TTM ~-8%). On the positive side, operating profitability improved from losses in 2022 to positive EBIT/EBITDA in 2023–2024; however, the TTM profitability figures appear inconsistent (EBIT/EBITDA and margins are unusually high versus revenue), which reduces confidence in the quality of the trend despite the headline improvement.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated and remains a major constraint. Total debt is still substantial (TTM ~$1.15B; prior annual years were materially higher at ~$4.7B–$5.7B), but the capital structure is weakened by negative equity in TTM (about -$44.8M), which drives an unfavorable debt-to-equity relationship and signals a thin (or impaired) equity cushion. Returns on equity are negative in recent years, consistent with ongoing net losses, and overall balance-sheet risk remains high despite the apparent reduction in debt versus prior annual periods.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved meaningfully. Operating cash flow is positive in 2023 and 2024 and increases further in TTM (about $218M), and free cash flow turned positive in TTM (~$80M) after negative free cash flow in 2022–2024. The main weakness is that cash flow still does not fully offset earnings pressure: operating cash flow relative to net income is modest in TTM, reflecting that reported losses are not yet consistently translating into strong surplus cash generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.12B	2.98B	2.87B	2.74B	2.75B
Gross Profit	645.02M	807.43M	744.71M	513.94M	488.58M
EBITDA	347.65M	420.80M	369.29M	319.92M	425.07M
Net Income	-262.69M	-201.94M	-189.01M	-238.43M	-99.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.95B	6.34B	5.57B	5.94B	6.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	279.12M	328.80M	307.73M	447.53M	529.42M
Total Debt	6.66B	5.65B	4.73B	4.89B	5.23B
Total Liabilities	6.00B	6.12B	5.17B	5.35B	5.71B
Stockholders Equity	-44.75M	212.47M	403.66M	582.61M	697.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-294.52M	-35.07M	-70.28M	-193.64M	-271.29M
Operating Cash Flow	218.03M	166.18M	162.92M	3.28M	-94.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-455.95M	-278.07M	-113.36M	-67.43M	181.46M
Financing Cash Flow	201.09M	142.06M	-174.44M	100.38M	-113.66M

Brookdale Senior Living Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 15.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.59, above the 50-day MA of 13.00, and above the 200-day MA of 9.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BKD.

Brookdale Senior Living Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADUS	75 Outperform	$1.94B	20.64	8.58%	―	18.77%	6.88%
NHC	74 Outperform	$2.44B	24.29	9.94%	1.80%	23.74%	-18.99%
PNTG	73 Outperform	$1.11B	43.74	10.87%	―	29.89%	10.33%
ASTH	62 Neutral	$963.99M	105.00	1.29%	―	68.17%	-85.42%
BKD	58 Neutral	$3.65B	-13.55	-214.33%	―	3.93%	-42.22%
AVAH	52 Neutral	$1.47B	20.03	―	―	15.48%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Brookdale Senior Living Corporate Events

Brookdale Senior Living Reports Strong 2025 Results, Refinances Debt

Brookdale Senior Living reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, showing a 5.7% increase in full-year consolidated RevPAR and a 310-basis-point improvement in fourth-quarter weighted average occupancy versus a year earlier, driven by strong move-in volume. Despite a 2025 net loss of $263 million, Adjusted EBITDA reached $458 million, above guidance, while the company reduced facility and administrative costs, lowered lease payments, and refinanced roughly $550 million of 2026–2027 mortgage debt, signaling operational momentum and a stronger capital structure that may support further growth in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKD) stock is a Buy with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brookdale Senior Living stock, see the BKD Stock Forecast page.

Brookdale Senior Living Issues Upbeat 2025 Preliminary Outlook

On January 28, 2026, Brookdale Senior Living announced preliminary 2025 results showing expected revenue of about $3.2 billion, up from $3.1 billion in 2024, and RevPAR growth of roughly 5.7%, while projecting a wider net loss of about $263 million due in part to roughly $71 million of non-cash impairment charges tied primarily to planned asset dispositions. Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is expected to reach about $458 million, a 19% year-on-year increase and above prior guidance, though adjusted free cash flow will come in below the previously indicated range because of working capital changes, underscoring improving operating performance but continued bottom-line pressure as the company reshapes its portfolio. For 2026, Brookdale introduced guidance calling for 8%–9% RevPAR growth and adjusted EBITDA of $502 million to $516 million, reflecting the accretive impact of completed and announced dispositions, lease terminations and higher resident rate increases, and signaling management’s confidence in sustaining mid-teens adjusted EBITDA growth and gradual deleveraging in the coming years.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKD) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brookdale Senior Living stock, see the BKD Stock Forecast page.

Brookdale Senior Living Reports Strong Occupancy Momentum Into 2026

On January 12, 2026, Brookdale Senior Living reported that its consolidated weighted average occupancy reached 82.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 70-basis-point increase over the third quarter and a 310-basis-point gain year-on-year, underscoring a sustained recovery in utilization across its senior housing portfolio. December 2025 performance was particularly strong, with consolidated weighted average occupancy of 82.4% up 310 basis points from a year earlier and month-end occupancy rising 30 basis points sequentially, driven by unusually robust move-in and move-out activity for a typically weaker month, suggesting solid momentum heading into 2026 and potentially strengthening Brookdale’s operating leverage and competitive position in the senior living market.

The most recent analyst rating on (BKD) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Brookdale Senior Living stock, see the BKD Stock Forecast page.