Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)
NYSE:BKD
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Brookdale Senior Living
(NYSE:BKD)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(1.67% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals—ongoing net losses and a high-risk balance sheet with negative equity—despite improving operating and free-cash-flow trends. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call was notably positive with strong EBITDA/occupancy momentum and upbeat 2026 guidance, while technicals are mixed and valuation remains unattractive given negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Occupancy Recovery
Sustained occupancy above the ~80% inflection point improves operating leverage and stabilizes recurring resident fees. Higher utilization increases fixed-cost absorption, supports EBITDA margins and cash generation over multiple quarters, reinforcing the company's revenue base and deleveraging potential.
Negative Factors
High Leverage & Thin Equity
A weakened capital structure with negative equity and elevated adjusted leverage constrains financial flexibility, increases refinancing risk and raises sensitivity to earnings volatility. Durable deleveraging will require sustained EBITDA gains and successful asset sales to restore an adequate equity cushion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Occupancy Recovery
Sustained occupancy above the ~80% inflection point improves operating leverage and stabilizes recurring resident fees. Higher utilization increases fixed-cost absorption, supports EBITDA margins and cash generation over multiple quarters, reinforcing the company's revenue base and deleveraging potential.
Read all positive factors
Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.27B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.19
Revenue Growth3.93%
EPS Growth-42.22%
CountryUS
Employees24,480
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.17
Shares Outstanding237,792,420
10 Day Avg. Volume3,248,689
30 Day Avg. Volume3,640,829
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)-56.50
Price to Sales (P/S)0.81
P/FCF Ratio-8.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.10Price Target Upside38.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.02B
Brookdale Senior Living Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. owns, manages, and operates senior living communities in the United States. It operates in three segments: Independent Living, Assisted Living and Memory Care, and Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs). The In...
How the Company Makes Money
Brookdale primarily makes money by charging residents recurring fees to live in and receive services at its senior living communities. The core revenue stream is resident fees, which generally include (1) monthly rental or occupancy charges for th...
Brookdale Senior Living Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple clear positives: RevPAR growth beat guidance, adjusted EBITDA grew strongly (+19% to $458M) and occupancy recovered above the pivotal 80% mark with sustained operational initiatives (new COO, regional structure, centralized pricing/CapEx). The company returned to positive adjusted free cash flow and is actively optimizing its portfolio with expected proceeds (~$200M) and continued CapEx investment focused on high-ROI projects. Key headwinds include a miss on free cash flow versus target, Q4 cash outflow tied to tax and working capital timing, revenue pressure from unit reductions, a meaningful cohort of under-70% occupancy communities that remain to be resolved, and elevated leverage (8.9x) that still poses near-term financial risk. Overall the positives — tangible operating momentum, strong EBITDA expansion, occupancy gains, strategic organizational changes and credible 2026 guidance — significantly outweigh the lowlights, while management acknowledges the remaining execution risks.Positive Updates
RevPAR Growth Exceeds Guidance
Full-year 2025 RevPAR grew 5.7%, finishing at the top end of initial guidance (4.75%–5.75%). Fourth-quarter same-community RevPAR increased 5% YoY; consolidated Q4 RevPAR rose ~7.1% (offsetting unit reductions). Company guides to 8%–9% RevPAR growth for 2026.
Negative Updates
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Shortfall and Q4 Cash Outflow
Full-year adjusted free cash flow was $23 million, below the $30–$50 million target. Q4 2025 adjusted free cash flow was an outflow of $23 million due to seasonality (real estate tax timing), working capital timing and refinancing-related prepayments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
RevPAR Growth Exceeds Guidance
Full-year 2025 RevPAR grew 5.7%, finishing at the top end of initial guidance (4.75%–5.75%). Fourth-quarter same-community RevPAR increased 5% YoY; consolidated Q4 RevPAR rose ~7.1% (offsetting unit reductions). Company guides to 8%–9% RevPAR growth for 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Brookdale guided 2026 RevPAR growth of 8%–9% and adjusted EBITDA of $502–$516 million, reiterated mid‑teens adjusted EBITDA growth through 2028 and a plan to drive adjusted leverage below 6.0x by year‑end 2028 (adjusted leverage was 8.9x at year‑end 2025); management expects to operate roughly 517 consolidated communities after dispositions, to sell 29 owned communities in 2026 for about $200 million of proceeds, to invest $175–$195 million in nondevelopment CapEx, to incur roughly $180 million of cash facility operating lease payments and about $162 million of G&A (ex. stock‑based comp and transaction/legal/restructuring costs) in 2026, with the guidance premised on continued occupancy gains above the ~80% inflection point and a mix of pricing and move‑in strength.Brookdale Senior Living Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.12B | 2.98B | 2.87B | 2.74B | 2.75B |
| Gross Profit | 645.02M | 807.43M | 744.71M | 513.94M | 488.58M |
| EBITDA | 347.65M | 420.80M | 369.29M | 319.92M | 425.07M |
| Net Income | -262.69M | -201.94M | -189.01M | -238.43M | -99.29M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.95B | 6.34B | 5.57B | 5.94B | 6.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 279.12M | 328.80M | 307.73M | 447.53M | 529.42M |
| Total Debt | 6.66B | 5.65B | 4.73B | 4.89B | 5.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.00B | 6.12B | 5.17B | 5.35B | 5.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | -44.75M | 212.47M | 403.66M | 582.61M | 697.40M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -294.52M | -35.07M | -70.28M | -193.64M | -271.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 218.03M | 166.18M | 162.92M | 3.28M | -94.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -455.95M | -278.07M | -113.36M | -67.43M | 181.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 201.09M | 142.06M | -174.44M | 100.38M | -113.66M |
Brookdale Senior Living Technical Analysis
Negative
13.77
Price Trends
14.77
Negative
12.91
Positive
10.45
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
44.79
Neutral
61.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.92, below the 50-day MA of 14.77, and above the 200-day MA of 10.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BKD.
Brookdale Senior Living Risk Analysis
Brookdale Senior Living disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brookdale Senior Living reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Brookdale Senior Living Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.75B | 17.67 | 11.57% | 1.80% | 23.74% | -18.99% | |
75 Outperform | $1.73B | 20.66 | 9.24% | ― | 18.77% | 6.88% | |
72 Outperform | $1.10B | 28.23 | 9.31% | ― | 29.89% | 10.33% | |
62 Neutral | $1.42B | 54.15 | 2.93% | ― | 68.17% | -85.42% | |
53 Neutral | $3.27B | -9.62 | -523.78% | ― | 3.93% | -42.22% | |
53 Neutral | $1.44B | 7.31 | 953.09% | ― | 15.48% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
BKD
Brookdale Senior Living
13.77
7.94
136.19%
ADUS
Addus Homecare
92.77
-9.00
-8.84%
NHC
National Healthcare
176.81
87.92
98.92%
ASTH
Astrana Health
28.23
-3.99
-12.38%
PNTG
Pennant Group
31.67
6.61
26.38%
AVAH
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings
6.61
1.81
37.71%
Brookdale Senior Living Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Brookdale Senior Living Reports Solid First-Quarter Occupancy Gains
Positive
Apr 8, 2026
On April 8, 2026, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. reported that its consolidated weighted average occupancy for the first quarter of 2026 rose 280 basis points year over year to 82.1 percent, despite a seasonal sequential decline of 40 basis points f...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Brookdale Senior Living Reports Strong 2025 Results, Refinances Debt
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Brookdale Senior Living reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, showing a 5.7% increase in full-year consolidated RevPAR and a 310-basis-point improvement in fourth-quarter weighted average occupancy versus a y...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Brookdale Senior Living Issues Upbeat 2025 Preliminary Outlook
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Brookdale Senior Living announced preliminary 2025 results showing expected revenue of about $3.2 billion, up from $3.1 billion in 2024, and RevPAR growth of roughly 5.7%, while projecting a wider net loss of about $263 millio...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Brookdale Senior Living Reports Strong Occupancy Momentum Into 2026
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Brookdale Senior Living reported that its consolidated weighted average occupancy reached 82.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 70-basis-point increase over the third quarter and a 310-basis-point gain year-on-year, underscor...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.