Astrana Health (ASTH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.15B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 277.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 54.81%
• EPS Growth: -45.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 40
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 49,928,910
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 302,782
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 277,436
• PEG Ratio: -1.79
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.15
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.03
• 1Y Price Target: $50.71
• Price Target Upside: 116.34% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(19.45%Upside)

Astrana Health's strong financial performance and strategic acquisitions are the most significant factors driving a positive outlook. However, the stock's technical indicators suggest short-term bearish momentum, and the high valuation may deter value investors. Despite some challenges in cost management and regulatory risks, the company's robust growth prospects and successful integration of recent acquisitions support a favorable overall score.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Strategy

Astrana Health announced the closing of its acquisition of Prospect Health for a reduced purchase price, which shows effective negotiation and cost management.

Financial Performance

Management has updated its full year 2025 guidance for increased revenue and adjusted EBITDA, indicating improved financial performance expectations.

Negative Factors

EBITDA Margin Pressure

EBITDA margin pressure is assumed from the close of the acquisition of CHS and elevated utilization in 2025.

Market Skepticism

The market remains skeptical about the Prospect acquisition, and doubters need to see performance post-close to be convinced.

Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Astrana Health (ASTH) is a forward-thinking healthcare company specializing in innovative solutions to improve patient outcomes and streamline healthcare delivery. Operating within the sectors of biotechnology and digital health, Astrana Health offers a range of cutting-edge services and products, including telemedicine platforms, personalized medicine solutions, and data analytics tools aimed at enhancing the efficiency of healthcare providers and the wellness of patients.

How the Company Makes Money

Astrana Health generates revenue through a combination of subscription fees for its telemedicine platforms, sales of its personalized medicine solutions, and licensing fees for its data analytics tools. Key revenue streams include partnerships with healthcare providers and insurance companies, which utilize Astrana's technology to improve service delivery and patient care efficiency. The company also engages in strategic collaborations with pharmaceutical firms for the development of tailor-made treatments, further contributing to its earnings. Additionally, Astrana Health capitalizes on government grants and initiatives aimed at promoting digital health innovation.

Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Astrana Health has demonstrated impressive revenue and profitability growth, supported by a strong balance sheet and solid cash flow generation. Despite a modest net profit margin, the company's financial position is robust, enabling ongoing investments and strategic initiatives.

Income Statement

Astrana Health has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase from $370 million in 2020 to $2.03 billion in 2024, indicating a robust expansion trajectory. The gross profit margin has improved substantially since 2020, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin is relatively modest, suggesting room for cost management improvements. Despite a slight decline in EBIT margin from 2022 to 2024, the overall EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, supporting the company's profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is solid with a significant increase in stockholders' equity over the years, rising from $330 million in 2020 to $712 million in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting a prudent approach to leveraging. However, the equity ratio indicates a moderate level of leverage, which requires monitoring to mitigate potential risks. Astrana Health's ability to maintain a strong cash position is a positive sign of financial stability.

Cash Flow

Astrana Health's cash flow from operations has remained positive, showing a capacity to generate sufficient cash to cover its capital expenditures. The free cash flow has consistently grown, demonstrating an effective cash management strategy. While the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient conversion of profits into cash, the operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests potential improvements in operational cash flow generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.03B	1.39B	1.14B	773.91M	370.25M
Gross Profit	271.39M	214.96M	199.48M	177.77M	21.70M
EBITDA	141.84M	123.69M	112.08M	100.66M	206.28M
Net Income	43.15M	60.72M	45.17M	68.92M	-23.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.35B	933.36M	966.21M	867.36M	817.49M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	290.83M	296.31M	293.59M	286.51M	261.17M
Total Debt	471.84M	321.01M	229.36M	200.98M	260.56M
Total Liabilities	861.38M	522.59M	407.67M	356.72M	372.34M
Stockholders Equity	712.72M	614.22M	542.56M	448.17M	330.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	44.17M	39.70M	59.19M	51.11M	45.00M
Operating Cash Flow	52.20M	68.23M	82.13M	70.33M	46.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-192.40M	-65.52M	-7.11M	16.54M	95.49M
Financing Cash Flow	135.04M	3.42M	-20.09M	-47.75M	-51.70M

Astrana Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 23.44
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.50, below the 50-day MA of 25.15, and below the 200-day MA of 35.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASTH.

Astrana Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADUS	79 Outperform	$2.00B	24.56	9.18%	―	11.38%	10.29%
ASTH	76 Outperform	$1.15B	31.66	5.00%	―	54.81%	-45.07%
NHC	75 Outperform	$1.48B	13.83	11.19%	2.58%	19.16%	31.92%
ARDT	73 Outperform	$1.58B	7.01	23.97%	―	8.91%	193.92%
MD	63 Neutral	$1.09B	―	-10.01%	―	-1.13%	-17.77%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$7.61B	0.04	-62.94%	2.44%	16.14%	0.33%
AGL	47 Neutral	$947.95M	―	-42.95%	―	19.18%	-6.14%

Astrana Health Corporate Events

Astrana Health Completes Acquisition of Prospect Health

On July 1, 2025, Astrana Health completed its acquisition of Prospect Health for $708 million, a reduction from the initially announced $745 million. This acquisition is expected to enhance Astrana’s capabilities in providing high-quality care, with Prospect Health contributing approximately $1.2 billion in revenue and $81 million in adjusted EBITDA annually. The acquisition is anticipated to create synergies of $12 to $15 million over the next 12 to 18 months, and Astrana has updated its full-year 2025 guidance to reflect the transaction’s impact.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Astrana Health Approves 2024 Equity Incentive Plan

Astrana Health, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 11, 2025, where the stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2024 Equity Incentive Plan. This plan, previously approved by the Board, increases the number of shares reserved for issuance by 2,000,000 and extends the plan’s term until March 25, 2035. Additionally, nine directors were elected, Ernst & Young LLP’s appointment as the independent auditor was ratified, and the executive compensation program was approved. These decisions reflect Astrana Health’s strategic efforts to enhance its governance and operational framework, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Astrana Health Updates Corporate Presentation for Conferences

On June 4, 2025, Astrana Health, Inc. updated its corporate presentation for use in upcoming conferences and meetings. The presentation materials are provided as part of a Current Report on Form 8-K, but the company has clarified that this information is not to be considered filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor will it be updated or incorporated into future filings. This move indicates a strategic effort to engage stakeholders while managing regulatory obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Astrana Health Updates Corporate Presentation Disclosure

On May 13, 2025, Astrana Health, Inc. updated its corporate presentation for use in conferences and meetings. The company clarified that the information in the presentation is being furnished and not filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, indicating no liability for the content, and it will not be incorporated into any future filings.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.