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Astrana Health (ASTH)
NASDAQ:ASTH

Astrana Health (ASTH) AI Stock Analysis

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Astrana Health

(NASDAQ:ASTH)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(13.59%Upside)
Astrana Health's strong financial performance and positive corporate events are the primary drivers of the stock's score. The recent acquisition and strategic initiatives bolster future growth prospects. However, the high valuation and bearish technical indicators suggest caution. Earnings call insights highlight both growth potential and challenges, balancing the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Acquisition Strategy
Astrana Health announced the closing of its acquisition of Prospect Health for a reduced purchase price, which shows effective negotiation and cost management.
Financial Performance
Astrana Health reported first-quarter results with adjusted EBITDA topping the consensus forecast.
Negative Factors
Cost Pressures
EBITDA margin pressure is assumed from the close of the acquisition of CHS and elevated utilization in 2025.
Market Skepticism
The market remains skeptical about the Prospect acquisition, and doubters need to see performance post-close to be convinced.

Astrana Health (ASTH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAstrana Health (ASTH) is a forward-thinking healthcare company specializing in innovative solutions to improve patient outcomes and streamline healthcare delivery. Operating within the sectors of biotechnology and digital health, Astrana Health offers a range of cutting-edge services and products, including telemedicine platforms, personalized medicine solutions, and data analytics tools aimed at enhancing the efficiency of healthcare providers and the wellness of patients.
How the Company Makes MoneyAstrana Health generates revenue through a combination of subscription fees for its telemedicine platforms, sales of its personalized medicine solutions, and licensing fees for its data analytics tools. Key revenue streams include partnerships with healthcare providers and insurance companies, which utilize Astrana's technology to improve service delivery and patient care efficiency. The company also engages in strategic collaborations with pharmaceutical firms for the development of tailor-made treatments, further contributing to its earnings. Additionally, Astrana Health capitalizes on government grants and initiatives aimed at promoting digital health innovation.

Astrana Health Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -26.29%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Astrana Health's first quarter results demonstrate strong revenue growth and effective expansion strategies, particularly in the Care Partners segment and emerging markets. The company is successfully integrating acquisitions and preparing for future growth with favorable Medicare Advantage rates. However, challenges with medical cost trends, margin pressures, and potential regulatory impacts present risks that need to be managed. Overall, the positive aspects slightly outweigh the challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Revenue Growth
Astrana Health reported a total revenue of $620.4 million, representing a 53% increase compared to the prior year period.
Strong Performance of Care Partners Segment
The Care Partners segment grew by 57% year over year to $600 million, driving the company's revenue growth.
Expansion in Emerging Markets
In Nevada and Texas, Astrana Health achieved significant growth and operational execution, with Nevada reaching breakeven and membership in the risk-bearing network growing by 40%.
Increased Membership in Full-Risk Arrangements
Approximately 38% of members are now in full-risk contracts, up from 5.5% a year ago, accounting for 75% of capitated revenue.
Successful CHS Integration
CHS integration is complete with over $10 million in G&A efficiencies identified, and performance in line with expectations.
Upcoming Prospect Health Acquisition
The planned acquisition of Prospect Health is expected to significantly expand the provider network and contribute $81 million in adjusted EBITDA with $12 million to $15 million in synergies.
Positive Medicare Advantage Rate Notice
The 2026 Medicare Advantage rate notice is favorable and expected to support continued growth and profitability.
Negative Updates
Medical Cost Trend Pressures
The quarter experienced challenges with medical cost trends, particularly due to a challenging flu season driving higher ER and lab utilization.
Lower Near-Term Margin Profiles
Margins were moderated by planned ongoing investments and revenue growth in areas with lower near-term margin profiles, such as CHS and newly converted full-risk members.
Medicaid Contracts and Utilization Challenges
Medicaid trends were above the blended average due to increased ER and lab utilization, and most Medicaid contracts are up for renewal over the next three years.
Potential Impact of Regulatory Changes
Ongoing discussions regarding California's Proposition 35 and potential federal policy changes could impact future EBITDA, though currently anticipated to be net neutral.
Company Guidance
During the Astrana Health First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided robust guidance and insights into its financial and operational performance. Astrana reported total revenue of $620.4 million, a 53% increase year-over-year, with a significant contribution from the Care Partners segment, which grew 57% to $600 million. The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $36.4 million, driven by organic growth and strategic acquisitions, including CHS, which contributed $95 million. Membership expanded to 910,000, with 38% now in full-risk contracts, accounting for 75% of capitated revenue. Astrana projects full-year revenue of $2.5 to $2.7 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $170 to $190 million. The company expects revenue between $615 million and $665 million and adjusted EBITDA of $45 million to $50 million for the second quarter. Furthermore, Astrana remains confident in its medium-term goal of at least $350 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2027, supported by continued strategic acquisitions and enhancements in its AI-enabled technology infrastructure.

Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Astrana Health exhibits strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth and profitability improvements over recent years. The balance sheet shows increasing equity and controlled leverage, although monitoring leverage levels remains essential. Cash flow generation is robust, supporting ongoing investments and growth initiatives. Overall, Astrana Health is well-positioned for future growth, with opportunities to enhance efficiency and manage leverage effectively.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Astrana Health has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase from $370 million in 2020 to $2.03 billion in 2024, indicating a robust expansion trajectory. The gross profit margin has improved substantially since 2020, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin is relatively modest, suggesting room for cost management improvements. Despite a slight decline in EBIT margin from 2022 to 2024, the overall EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, supporting the company's profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet is solid with a significant increase in stockholders' equity over the years, rising from $330 million in 2020 to $712 million in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, reflecting a prudent approach to leveraging. However, the equity ratio indicates a moderate level of leverage, which requires monitoring to mitigate potential risks. Astrana Health's ability to maintain a strong cash position is a positive sign of financial stability.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Astrana Health's cash flow from operations has remained positive, showing a capacity to generate sufficient cash to cover its capital expenditures. The free cash flow has consistently grown, demonstrating an effective cash management strategy. While the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient conversion of profits into cash, the operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests potential improvements in operational cash flow generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.25B2.03B1.39B1.14B773.91M370.25M
Gross Profit253.19M271.39M214.96M199.48M177.77M21.70M
EBITDA128.92M141.84M123.69M112.08M100.66M206.28M
Net Income35.01M43.15M60.72M45.17M68.92M-23.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets868.29M1.35B933.36M966.21M867.36M817.49M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments152.30M290.83M296.31M293.59M286.51M261.17M
Total Debt47.46M471.84M321.01M229.36M200.98M260.56M
Total Liabilities813.55M861.38M522.59M407.67M356.72M372.34M
Stockholders Equity54.74M712.72M614.22M542.56M448.17M330.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow55.19M44.17M39.70M59.19M51.11M45.00M
Operating Cash Flow62.85M52.20M68.23M82.13M70.33M46.16M
Investing Cash Flow-121.48M-192.40M-65.52M-7.11M16.54M95.49M
Financing Cash Flow28.80M135.04M3.42M-20.09M-47.75M-51.70M

Astrana Health Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price24.65
Price Trends
50DMA
27.13
Negative
100DMA
29.64
Negative
200DMA
37.55
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.53
Negative
RSI
43.31
Neutral
STOCH
36.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.21, below the 50-day MA of 27.13, and below the 200-day MA of 37.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASTH.

Astrana Health Risk Analysis

Astrana Health disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Astrana Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Astrana Health Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$2.08B24.939.18%11.38%10.29%
NHNHC
78
Outperform
$1.66B15.5711.19%2.38%19.16%31.92%
73
Outperform
$1.25B34.555.00%54.81%-45.07%
72
Outperform
$1.96B8.5023.97%8.91%193.92%
64
Neutral
¥343.99B10.61-2.88%2.57%11.80%-6.84%
MDMD
63
Neutral
$1.23B-10.01%-1.13%-17.77%
AGAGL
44
Neutral
$985.21M-42.95%19.18%-6.14%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ASTH
Astrana Health
24.65
-15.11
-38.00%
ADUS
Addus Homecare
110.37
-7.36
-6.25%
MD
Pediatrix Medical Group
13.78
6.97
102.35%
NHC
National Healthcare
108.76
-2.90
-2.60%
AGL
Agilon Health
2.39
-3.57
-59.90%
ARDT
Ardent Health Partners, Inc.
13.42
-3.88
-22.43%

Astrana Health Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Astrana Health Completes Acquisition of Prospect Health
Positive
Jul 2, 2025

On July 1, 2025, Astrana Health completed its acquisition of Prospect Health for $708 million, a reduction from the initially announced $745 million. This acquisition is expected to enhance Astrana’s capabilities in providing high-quality care, with Prospect Health contributing approximately $1.2 billion in revenue and $81 million in adjusted EBITDA annually. The acquisition is anticipated to create synergies of $12 to $15 million over the next 12 to 18 months, and Astrana has updated its full-year 2025 guidance to reflect the transaction’s impact.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Astrana Health Approves 2024 Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
Jun 11, 2025

Astrana Health, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 11, 2025, where the stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2024 Equity Incentive Plan. This plan, previously approved by the Board, increases the number of shares reserved for issuance by 2,000,000 and extends the plan’s term until March 25, 2035. Additionally, nine directors were elected, Ernst & Young LLP’s appointment as the independent auditor was ratified, and the executive compensation program was approved. These decisions reflect Astrana Health’s strategic efforts to enhance its governance and operational framework, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Astrana Health Updates Corporate Presentation for Conferences
Neutral
Jun 4, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Astrana Health, Inc. updated its corporate presentation for use in upcoming conferences and meetings. The presentation materials are provided as part of a Current Report on Form 8-K, but the company has clarified that this information is not to be considered filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor will it be updated or incorporated into future filings. This move indicates a strategic effort to engage stakeholders while managing regulatory obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Astrana Health Updates Corporate Presentation Disclosure
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 13, 2025, Astrana Health, Inc. updated its corporate presentation for use in conferences and meetings. The company clarified that the information in the presentation is being furnished and not filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, indicating no liability for the content, and it will not be incorporated into any future filings.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025