Astrana Health (ASTH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.54B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 451.79K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 57.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: 51.97%
• EPS Growth: -64.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 49,927,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 353,634
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 451,793
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.89
• 1Y Price Target: $41.40
• Price Target Upside: 39.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(11.11% Upside)

Astrana Health's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly the successful acquisition of Prospect Health. However, high valuation metrics and potential overbought technical indicators temper the outlook. The company's ability to manage cost pressures and improve operational efficiency will be crucial for sustaining long-term growth.

Positive Factors

Acquisition

The Prospect Health acquisition closed at a lower purchase price than initially expected, allowing a lower pro-forma net leverage ratio.

Financial Performance

Astrana Health reported second quarter 2025 results with sales ahead of expectations and adjusted EBITDA topping the consensus forecast.

Negative Factors

Market Skepticism

The market remains skeptical about the Prospect acquisition, and doubters need to see performance post-close to be convinced.

Regulatory Impacts

The Big Beautiful Bill Act could lead to a $200-$250M revenue headwind on a lower-margin book of business.

Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Astrana Health (ASTH) is a healthcare technology company focused on providing innovative solutions that enhance patient care and streamline healthcare operations. Operating primarily in the health tech sector, Astrana Health develops a suite of digital health products, including telehealth platforms, electronic health record (EHR) systems, and data analytics tools designed to improve healthcare delivery and outcomes across various medical specialties.

How the Company Makes Money

Astrana Health generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering subscription-based services for its telehealth and EHR platforms to healthcare providers and institutions. Additionally, the company earns income through licensing fees for its analytics tools and by providing consulting services that help healthcare organizations optimize their operations. Significant partnerships with healthcare systems and insurance providers enhance its market reach and create bundled service offerings, further contributing to its revenue. The company may also explore additional income through strategic collaborations and pilot programs that validate its technologies for broader adoption.

Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Astrana Health exhibits strong cash flow growth and a healthier balance sheet, but declining profitability margins and reduced return on equity highlight areas for improvement. The company is well-positioned in terms of leverage and cash generation, but needs to address operational efficiency to enhance profitability.

Income Statement

Astrana Health has shown a consistent revenue growth trend, with a notable 7.49% increase in the TTM period. However, profitability margins such as the gross profit margin and net profit margin have declined over time, indicating potential cost pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has significantly improved in the TTM period, indicating a stronger balance sheet with reduced leverage. However, the return on equity has decreased, reflecting lower profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio remains stable, showcasing a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Astrana Health has demonstrated impressive free cash flow growth of 126.75% in the TTM period, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has improved, suggesting better cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains high, indicating reliance on cash flow for profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.42B	2.03B	1.39B	1.14B	773.91M	370.25M
Gross Profit	278.90M	271.39M	214.96M	199.48M	177.77M	21.70M
EBITDA	112.10M	141.84M	123.69M	112.08M	100.66M	206.28M
Net Income	25.26M	43.15M	60.72M	45.17M	68.92M	-23.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	878.71M	1.35B	933.36M	966.21M	867.36M	817.49M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	342.12M	290.83M	296.31M	293.59M	286.51M	261.17M
Total Debt	29.39M	471.84M	321.01M	229.36M	200.98M	260.56M
Total Liabilities	230.25M	840.73M	522.59M	407.67M	356.72M	372.34M
Stockholders Equity	648.46M	712.72M	614.22M	542.56M	448.17M	330.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	118.17M	44.17M	39.70M	59.19M	51.11M	45.00M
Operating Cash Flow	130.56M	52.20M	68.23M	82.13M	70.33M	46.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-45.00M	-192.40M	-65.52M	-7.11M	16.54M	95.49M
Financing Cash Flow	-71.29M	135.04M	3.42M	-20.09M	-47.75M	-51.70M

Astrana Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 29.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 29.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.08, above the 50-day MA of 26.33, and below the 200-day MA of 30.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ASTH.

Astrana Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADUS	78 Outperform	$2.06B	24.67	8.54%	―	14.29%	7.85%
MD	77 Outperform	$1.48B	13.27	14.27%	―	-3.08%	―
ARDT	72 Outperform	$1.84B	7.17	25.56%	―	10.03%	197.26%
ASTH	72 Outperform	$1.54B	57.54	3.50%	―	51.97%	-64.10%
NHC	69 Neutral	$1.78B	17.17	10.65%	2.15%	25.19%	13.44%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.92B	-0.43	-41.67%	2.21%	22.29%	-1.85%
AGL	40 Underperform	$501.45M	―	-60.64%	―	10.12%	-29.12%

Astrana Health Corporate Events

Astrana Health Completes Acquisition of Prospect Health

On July 1, 2025, Astrana Health completed its acquisition of Prospect Health for $708 million, a reduction from the initially announced $745 million. This acquisition is expected to enhance Astrana’s capabilities in providing high-quality care, with Prospect Health contributing approximately $1.2 billion in revenue and $81 million in adjusted EBITDA annually. The acquisition is anticipated to create synergies of $12 to $15 million over the next 12 to 18 months, and Astrana has updated its full-year 2025 guidance to reflect the transaction’s impact.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Astrana Health Approves 2024 Equity Incentive Plan

Astrana Health, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 11, 2025, where the stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2024 Equity Incentive Plan. This plan, previously approved by the Board, increases the number of shares reserved for issuance by 2,000,000 and extends the plan’s term until March 25, 2035. Additionally, nine directors were elected, Ernst & Young LLP’s appointment as the independent auditor was ratified, and the executive compensation program was approved. These decisions reflect Astrana Health’s strategic efforts to enhance its governance and operational framework, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Astrana Health Updates Corporate Presentation for Conferences

On June 4, 2025, Astrana Health, Inc. updated its corporate presentation for use in upcoming conferences and meetings. The presentation materials are provided as part of a Current Report on Form 8-K, but the company has clarified that this information is not to be considered filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor will it be updated or incorporated into future filings. This move indicates a strategic effort to engage stakeholders while managing regulatory obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.