Astrana Health (ASTH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.29B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 492.94K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 144.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 68.17%
• EPS Growth: -85.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 50,155,613
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 466,794
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 492,942
• PEG Ratio: -1.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.69
• 1Y Price Target: $34.20
• Price Target Upside: 33.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.97B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▲(16.82% Upside)

ASTH scores as a balanced risk/reward: strong top-line expansion and positive earnings-call execution/integration are outweighed by sharp margin compression, higher leverage and weaker free cash flow trends. Technicals support the uptrend but appear overextended, while the very high P/E meaningfully drags the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Q3's 100% YoY revenue increase to $956M reflects durable expansion from organic growth and recent deals. A materially larger revenue base enhances negotiating leverage with payers, funds continued investment in care and tech, and supports sustained operational scale over the next 2–6 months.

Successful Acquisition Integration

Completing and integrating Prospect Health expands Astrana's Southern California footprint and patient scale. Realized integration gains provide structural synergies in network economics and payer contracting that can persistently improve utilization management and long-term revenue sustainability.

Technology & AI Capabilities

Deployment of AI-driven tools for high-risk prediction, claims analytics and documentation creates repeatable operational efficiencies. These capabilities can sustainably lower care costs, improve outcomes, and widen a competitive moat as digital processes scale across the care network.

Negative Factors

Margin Compression

Material declines in gross and net margins reflect rising cost pressures and compressed profitability. Thin margins leave limited buffer against reimbursement shifts, integration costs, or medical cost inflation, increasing the risk that earnings volatility will impair reinvestment and sustainable margin recovery.

Rising Leverage

A jump in debt-to-equity and collapsing ROE signal heavier reliance on debt and weaker capital efficiency. Higher leverage raises interest and refinancing risk, reduces financial flexibility for M&A or investments, and heightens exposure to cash flow volatility from payer or regulatory changes.

Weaker Cash Generation

A 20.55% TTM decline in free cash flow and operating cash covering only 0.17x of net income indicate poor cash conversion. Sustained weak cash flow constrains the company's ability to service debt, fund technology and network investments, or absorb reimbursement timing risks.

Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Astrana Health, Inc., Inc., a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. It operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company is leveraging its proprietary population health management and healthcare delivery platform, operates an integrated, value-based healthcare model which empowers the providers in its network to deliver care to its patients. It offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. The company's physician network consists of primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. It serves patients, primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization plans; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Astrana Health generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of its therapeutics and diagnostic products to healthcare providers and institutions. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, allowing for collaborative development and commercialization of new therapies, which can lead to shared revenue from product launches. Additionally, Astrana Health may receive funding through grants and research contracts aimed at advancing healthcare innovations. Licensing agreements for its proprietary technologies further contribute to its earnings, as the company can monetize its intellectual property by allowing other firms to use its innovations in exchange for royalties.

Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Astrana Health shows strong revenue growth but faces profitability challenges with declining margins and increased debt reliance. Positive cash flow relative to net income is a strength, but declining free cash flow and higher debt levels pose risks.

Income Statement

Astrana Health has shown a strong revenue growth rate of 19.73% in the TTM, indicating robust expansion. However, the gross profit margin has declined from 13.34% in 2024 to 10.15% in the TTM, suggesting increased cost pressures. The net profit margin has also decreased significantly from 2.12% in 2024 to 0.33% in the TTM, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these pressures, the company has managed to maintain positive revenue growth, which is a positive indicator.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.40 in the TTM from 0.66 in 2024, indicating a higher reliance on debt financing, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. The return on equity has decreased to 1.27% in the TTM from 6.05% in 2024, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating returns from equity. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has declined by 20.55% in the TTM, which is a concern for liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.17, indicating that operating cash flows are not fully covering net income, which could affect cash reserves. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains relatively high at 0.88, suggesting that the company is still generating cash relative to its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.90B	2.03B	1.39B	1.14B	773.91M	370.25M
Gross Profit	293.91M	271.39M	214.96M	199.48M	177.77M	21.70M
EBITDA	108.16M	141.84M	123.69M	112.08M	100.66M	29.74M
Net Income	9.54M	43.15M	60.72M	45.17M	68.92M	-23.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.24B	1.35B	933.36M	966.21M	867.36M	817.49M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	463.45M	290.83M	296.31M	293.59M	286.51M	261.17M
Total Debt	1.09B	471.84M	321.01M	229.36M	200.98M	260.56M
Total Liabilities	1.68B	840.73M	522.59M	407.67M	356.72M	372.34M
Stockholders Equity	775.54M	712.72M	614.22M	542.56M	448.17M	330.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	96.96M	44.17M	39.70M	59.19M	51.11M	45.00M
Operating Cash Flow	106.53M	52.20M	68.23M	82.13M	70.33M	46.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-571.24M	-192.40M	-65.52M	-7.11M	16.54M	95.49M
Financing Cash Flow	580.39M	135.15M	3.42M	-20.09M	-47.75M	-51.70M

Astrana Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 25.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.67, above the 50-day MA of 24.61, and below the 200-day MA of 27.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASTH.

Astrana Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MD	76 Outperform	$1.89B	11.97	19.98%	―	-4.21%	―
HCSG	72 Outperform	$1.32B	35.75	8.07%	―	6.26%	-19.33%
SEM	69 Neutral	$1.87B	17.31	5.57%	1.69%	-22.96%	-59.35%
USPH	63 Neutral	$1.31B	36.15	7.30%	2.25%	17.50%	154.28%
ASTH	62 Neutral	$1.29B	144.11	1.29%	―	68.17%	-85.42%
AVAH	52 Neutral	$1.95B	27.11	―	―	15.48%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Astrana Health Corporate Events

Astrana Health Updates Investor Presentation Highlighting National Expansion

On January 12, 2026, Astrana Health, Inc. updated the corporate investor presentation it uses for conferences and meetings, outlining its delegated financial and risk-bearing model that aims to replace what it characterizes as a broken U.S. healthcare status quo marked by poor provider and patient satisfaction, high costs, and limited coordinated care. The refreshed materials highlight Astrana’s expansion from a single market to 16 markets nationwide by 2025, its role in delivering payer-like administrative services, and how its care model is designed to improve access, quality, and patient outcomes, signaling continued growth of its national platform and deepening integration with providers and payers under value-based arrangements.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Astrana Health Reports Strong Q3 Revenue Growth

On November 6, 2025, Astrana Health announced its third-quarter financial results, reporting a 100% year-over-year increase in total revenue to $956 million, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $68.5 million. The company successfully integrated Prospect Health, exceeding performance expectations and expanding its market reach. Astrana also updated its full-year 2025 guidance to reflect delays in full-risk contract transitions, which are expected to complete in early 2026. The strategic partnerships and acquisitions are set to enhance Astrana’s position in the healthcare industry, focusing on coordinated, high-quality care delivery.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.