Astrana Health (ASTH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.47B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 419.67K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 56.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: 51.97%
• EPS Growth: -64.10%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 41
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 49,927,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 656,910
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 419,674
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.89
• 1Y Price Target: $41.00
• Price Target Upside: 39.79% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $33.00 ▲(12.51% Upside)

Astrana Health's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly the successful acquisition of Prospect Health. However, high valuation metrics and potential overbought technical indicators temper the outlook. The company's ability to manage cost pressures and improve operational efficiency will be crucial for sustaining long-term growth.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Astrana Health reported second quarter 2025 results with sales ahead of expectations and adjusted EBITDA topping the consensus forecast.

Strategic Growth

Astrana Health announced the closing of its acquisition of Prospect Health for a reduced purchase price, which shows effective negotiation and cost management.

Negative Factors

Market Skepticism

The market remains skeptical about the Prospect acquisition, and doubters need to see performance post-close to be convinced.

Regulatory Impact

The Big Beautiful Bill Act could lead to a $200-$250M revenue headwind on a lower-margin book of business.

Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Astrana Health, Inc., Inc., a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. It operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company is leveraging its proprietary population health management and healthcare delivery platform, operates an integrated, value-based healthcare model which empowers the providers in its network to deliver care to its patients. It offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. The company's physician network consists of primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. It serves patients, primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization plans; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Astrana Health generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering subscription-based services for its telehealth and EHR platforms to healthcare providers and institutions. Additionally, the company earns income through licensing fees for its analytics tools and by providing consulting services that help healthcare organizations optimize their operations. Significant partnerships with healthcare systems and insurance providers enhance its market reach and create bundled service offerings, further contributing to its revenue. The company may also explore additional income through strategic collaborations and pilot programs that validate its technologies for broader adoption.

Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Astrana Health shows strong financial health with robust revenue growth and efficient operations. The balance sheet is solid, though rising debt levels require attention. Cash flow generation is strong, supporting the company's growth trajectory.

Income Statement

Astrana Health has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase from $370 million in 2020 to over $2 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin has improved, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has fluctuated, reflecting some volatility in net income. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, showing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a stable equity base, with stockholders' equity growing consistently. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, suggesting manageable leverage. The equity ratio indicates a solid asset base backed by equity. However, the increase in total debt over the years requires monitoring to ensure financial stability.

Cash Flow

Astrana Health has shown positive operating cash flow, with free cash flow consistently positive, indicating good cash generation capability. The free cash flow growth rate is strong, supporting future investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting efficient conversion of income to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.42B	2.03B	1.39B	1.14B	773.91M	370.25M
Gross Profit	278.90M	271.39M	214.96M	199.48M	177.77M	21.70M
EBITDA	112.10M	141.84M	123.69M	112.08M	100.66M	206.28M
Net Income	25.26M	43.15M	60.72M	45.17M	68.92M	-23.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	878.71M	1.35B	933.36M	966.21M	867.36M	817.49M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	342.12M	290.83M	296.31M	293.59M	286.51M	261.17M
Total Debt	29.39M	471.84M	321.01M	229.36M	200.98M	260.56M
Total Liabilities	230.25M	840.73M	522.59M	407.67M	356.72M	372.34M
Stockholders Equity	648.46M	712.72M	614.22M	542.56M	448.17M	330.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	118.17M	44.17M	39.70M	59.19M	51.11M	45.00M
Operating Cash Flow	130.56M	52.20M	68.23M	82.13M	70.33M	46.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-45.00M	-192.40M	-65.52M	-7.11M	16.54M	95.49M
Financing Cash Flow	-71.29M	135.04M	3.42M	-20.09M	-47.75M	-51.70M

Astrana Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 29.33
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.68, above the 50-day MA of 24.88, and below the 200-day MA of 32.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.65 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTH.

Astrana Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADUS	78 Outperform	$2.10B	25.11	8.54%	―	14.29%	7.85%
MD	76 Outperform	$1.35B	12.47	14.27%	―	-3.08%	―
ASTH	72 Outperform	$1.47B	56.82	3.50%	―	51.97%	-64.10%
NHC	69 Neutral	$1.65B	15.86	10.65%	2.30%	25.19%	13.44%
ARDT	66 Neutral	$1.79B	6.96	25.56%	―	10.03%	197.26%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.46B	-0.16	-46.00%	2.25%	22.82%	-2.28%
AGL	39 Underperform	$439.29M	―	-60.64%	―	10.12%	-29.12%

Astrana Health Corporate Events

Astrana Health Completes Acquisition of Prospect Health

On July 1, 2025, Astrana Health completed its acquisition of Prospect Health for $708 million, a reduction from the initially announced $745 million. This acquisition is expected to enhance Astrana’s capabilities in providing high-quality care, with Prospect Health contributing approximately $1.2 billion in revenue and $81 million in adjusted EBITDA annually. The acquisition is anticipated to create synergies of $12 to $15 million over the next 12 to 18 months, and Astrana has updated its full-year 2025 guidance to reflect the transaction’s impact.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Astrana Health Approves 2024 Equity Incentive Plan

Astrana Health, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 11, 2025, where the stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2024 Equity Incentive Plan. This plan, previously approved by the Board, increases the number of shares reserved for issuance by 2,000,000 and extends the plan’s term until March 25, 2035. Additionally, nine directors were elected, Ernst & Young LLP’s appointment as the independent auditor was ratified, and the executive compensation program was approved. These decisions reflect Astrana Health’s strategic efforts to enhance its governance and operational framework, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.

Astrana Health Updates Corporate Presentation for Conferences

On June 4, 2025, Astrana Health, Inc. updated its corporate presentation for use in upcoming conferences and meetings. The presentation materials are provided as part of a Current Report on Form 8-K, but the company has clarified that this information is not to be considered filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor will it be updated or incorporated into future filings. This move indicates a strategic effort to engage stakeholders while managing regulatory obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.