Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH)
NASDAQ:ASTH
Top Page
Astrana Health
(NASDAQ:ASTH)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$29.00
▲(56.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is primarily supported by solid cash flow strength and constructive (though risk-aware) 2026 guidance with identified synergy/efficiency drivers. Offsetting this are weakened TTM margins and higher leverage in the financials, a mixed technical backdrop (still below the 200DMA), and a high P/E that reduces valuation support.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow & conversion
Sustained, high free cash flow and strong conversion from adjusted EBITDA provide durable funding for debt reduction, buybacks, and strategic investments. This cash generation cushions execution risk from thin reported earnings and underpins multi-year deleveraging and reinvestment plans.
Negative Factors
Thin trailing profitability and margin compression
Material margin compression and near‑zero TTM net margins reduce the firm's financial buffer against cost shocks or enrollment losses. Persistent thin margins constrain ability to absorb medical cost inflation and slow the pace at which free cash flow can sustainably de-risk the balance sheet without further margin recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow & conversion
Sustained, high free cash flow and strong conversion from adjusted EBITDA provide durable funding for debt reduction, buybacks, and strategic investments. This cash generation cushions execution risk from thin reported earnings and underpins multi-year deleveraging and reinvestment plans.
Read all positive factors
Astrana Health (ASTH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)504.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)54.1
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth68.17%
EPS Growth-85.42%
CountryUS
Employees1,900
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding50,155,613
10 Day Avg. Volume369,835
30 Day Avg. Volume504,469
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.56
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio11.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.80Price Target Upside81.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.99B
Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Astrana Health, Inc., Inc., a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. It operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The compa...
How the Company Makes Money
Astrana Health generates revenue primarily by participating in value-based care arrangements in which it (directly or through affiliated entities) helps manage the total cost and quality of care for covered patient populations. Under these arrange...
Astrana Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple record financial and operating milestones—strong double‑digit top-line growth, record adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, expanding geographic diversification, measurable operating leverage from the platform and AI, and progressing integration synergies from the Prospect acquisition. Management acknowledged near-term headwinds including a material weakness in controls (Form 12b-25), elevated 2026 cost assumptions, Medicaid/exchange disenrollment risk, transaction-related one-time costs, and leverage that create measurable but manageable risk. Guidance is framed conservatively with clear paths to the midpoint driven by realized synergies, ramping full-risk contracts, and AI-driven efficiencies.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Profitability
Q4 total revenue of $950.5M, up 43% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $3.2B, up 56% year-over-year and at the high end of guidance. Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $52.5M, up 50% year-over-year; full year adjusted EBITDA of $205.4M, a 21% increase year-over-year. Full-year adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS of $2.20 (record).
Negative Updates
Material Weakness in Controls and 10-K Delay
Company will file a Form 12b-25 due to a material weakness in internal controls over financial reporting related to acquisition and purchase accounting processes; 10-K filing will be delayed within the 15-day extension while remediation and process enhancements are underway.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Profitability
Q4 total revenue of $950.5M, up 43% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $3.2B, up 56% year-over-year and at the high end of guidance. Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $52.5M, up 50% year-over-year; full year adjusted EBITDA of $205.4M, a 21% increase year-over-year. Full-year adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS of $2.20 (record).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenue of $3.8–$4.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $250–$280 million (midpoint $265M), and free cash flow of $105–$132.5 million, with Q1 2026 revenue of $900M–$1.0B and Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $60M–$70M. The plan embeds conservative assumptions—~10–15% Medicaid disenrollment, ~1.0–1.5% negative Medicaid rate/acuity spread, low‑double‑digit exchange declines, and $0 contribution from California’s HQAF—while modeling tailwinds including Prospect synergies of $12–$15M (phased, with a high‑single‑digit contribution expected in 2026), roughly mid‑$20M from contract conversion/rate improvements, $5–$10M of expansion‑market maturation, and ongoing AI/G&A efficiencies; management noted the low end reflects a stacked downside case and the midpoint reflects their operating plan.Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.18B | 2.03B | 1.39B | 1.14B | 773.91M |
| Gross Profit | 295.78M | 271.39M | 214.96M | 199.48M | 177.77M |
| EBITDA | 124.27M | 141.84M | 123.69M | 112.08M | 100.66M |
| Net Income | 22.49M | 43.15M | 60.72M | 45.17M | 68.92M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.22B | 1.35B | 933.36M | 966.21M | 867.36M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 429.47M | 290.83M | 296.31M | 293.59M | 286.51M |
| Total Debt | 1.08B | 471.84M | 321.01M | 229.36M | 200.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.66B | 840.73M | 522.59M | 407.67M | 356.72M |
| Stockholders Equity | 779.29M | 712.72M | 614.22M | 542.56M | 448.17M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 104.49M | 44.17M | 39.70M | 59.19M | 51.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 114.60M | 52.20M | 68.23M | 82.13M | 70.33M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -539.00M | -192.40M | -65.52M | -7.11M | 16.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 569.35M | 135.15M | 3.42M | -20.09M | -47.75M |
Astrana Health Technical Analysis
Positive
18.59
Price Trends
22.90
Positive
23.58
Positive
25.82
Positive
Market Momentum
1.05
Negative
71.63
Negative
87.19
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.92, below the 50-day MA of 22.90, and below the 200-day MA of 25.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.63 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTH.
Astrana Health Risk Analysis
Astrana Health disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Astrana Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Astrana Health Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.36B | 23.43 | 11.83% | ― | 6.26% | -19.33% | |
62 Neutral | $1.42B | 54.15 | 2.93% | ― | 68.17% | -85.42% | |
62 Neutral | $2.03B | 12.54 | 5.57% | 1.69% | -22.96% | -59.35% | |
62 Neutral | $1.16B | 78.68 | 3.12% | 2.25% | 17.50% | 154.28% | |
54 Neutral | $1.77B | 11.03 | 19.58% | ― | -4.21% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $1.44B | 7.31 | 953.09% | ― | 15.48% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ASTH
Astrana Health
28.23
-3.99
-12.38%
HCSG
Healthcare Services
19.33
9.55
97.65%
MD
Pediatrix Medical Group
21.34
7.78
57.37%
SEM
Select Medical
16.37
0.25
1.52%
USPH
US Physical Therapy
77.01
9.83
14.63%
AVAH
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings
6.61
1.81
37.71%
Astrana Health Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Astrana Health details financial impact of PHP acquisition
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On July 2, 2025, Astrana Health reported that it had completed the acquisition of all outstanding equity interests in Prospect Health Plan, Inc. and Alta Newport Hospital, LLC, along with substantially all assets of certain PHP Holdings subsidiari...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Astrana Health Updates Investor Presentation on Value-Based Strategy
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Astrana Health, Inc. updated its corporate investor presentation for use at conferences and meetings, highlighting its delegated financial model and role as a risk-bearing organization in value-based care. The materials describe ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Astrana Health Reports Record 2025 Results, Expands Buyback
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Astrana Health reported record 2025 results on March 2, 2026, with total revenue rising 56% to $3.18 billion, driven mainly by its Care Partners segment, while adjusted EBITDA increased 21% to $205.4 million and free cash flow reached $104.5 milli...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Astrana Health Updates Investor Presentation Highlighting National Expansion
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Astrana Health, Inc. updated the corporate investor presentation it uses for conferences and meetings, outlining its delegated financial and risk-bearing model that aims to replace what it characterizes as a broken U.S. health...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.