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Astrana Health (ASTH)
NASDAQ:ASTH
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Astrana Health
(NASDAQ:ASTH)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
▲(7.82% Upside)
Astrana Health's overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, reflecting robust revenue growth and strategic acquisitions. However, high valuation and technical indicators suggest caution, with potential regulatory risks and cost challenges in Medicaid.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term expansion and profitability.
Cash Flow Generation
Strong cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, allowing for reinvestment in growth initiatives and debt reduction, supporting sustainable operations.
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition strengthens Astrana's market position and operational capabilities, potentially driving future growth and competitive advantage.
Negative Factors
Declining Profitability Margins
Decreasing margins suggest rising costs or pricing pressures, which could hinder long-term profitability and require strategic adjustments.
Exposure to Regulatory Changes
Regulatory changes could impact revenue streams and operational costs, posing risks to Astrana's financial stability and growth prospects.
Medicaid Cost Trends
Higher Medicaid costs indicate challenges in cost control, potentially affecting margins and necessitating strategic cost management.
Astrana Health (ASTH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.48B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)359.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)57.5
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth51.97%
EPS Growth-64.10%
CountryUS
Employees1,900
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding49,927,530
10 Day Avg. Volume377,044
30 Day Avg. Volume358,999
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.16
Price to Book (P/B)2.11
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
P/FCF Ratio34.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.20Price Target Upside38.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAstrana Health, Inc., Inc., a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. It operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company is leveraging its proprietary population health management and healthcare delivery platform, operates an integrated, value-based healthcare model which empowers the providers in its network to deliver care to its patients. It offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. The company's physician network consists of primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. It serves patients, primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization plans; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyAstrana Health generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering subscription-based services for its telehealth and EHR platforms to healthcare providers and institutions. Additionally, the company earns income through licensing fees for its analytics tools and by providing consulting services that help healthcare organizations optimize their operations. Significant partnerships with healthcare systems and insurance providers enhance its market reach and create bundled service offerings, further contributing to its revenue. The company may also explore additional income through strategic collaborations and pilot programs that validate its technologies for broader adoption.
Astrana Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Astrana Health's earnings call showcased strong financial performance, highlighted by significant revenue growth and a successful acquisition that improved their leverage position. The company maintained high adjusted EBITDA and increased revenue from full risk contracts, reinforcing its profitability. However, challenges remain, primarily due to Medicaid cost trends and exposure to regulatory changes in Medicaid and health insurance exchanges. Despite these concerns, the overall sentiment is positive given the company's strong execution and strategic advancements.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Astrana Health reported total revenues of $654.8 million for Q2 2025, a 35% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by strong organic growth and a transition into full risk arrangements.
Successful Prospect Acquisition
Astrana Health closed the Prospect Health acquisition for $708 million, down from the initially anticipated $745 million, improving their leverage position to 2.7x net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA.
High Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $48.1 million, at the higher end of guidance ranges, demonstrating disciplined growth with controlled costs.
Increased Full Risk Contract Revenue
Revenue from full risk contracts increased to 78%, up from 60% a year ago, contributing to improved profitability.
Positive Cash Flow
Astrana Health reported $20 million in free cash flow for the quarter, representing 40% of adjusted EBITDA, with expectations to achieve $90 million to $100 million for the full year.
Negative Updates
Medicaid Cost Trends
While Medicare Advantage and commercial lines were below the 4.5% medical cost trend expectation, Medicaid was slightly above, indicating a challenge in controlling costs in this segment.
Exposure to Regulatory Changes
Potential headwinds from HR1 affecting Medicaid funding and eligibility, as well as challenges in health insurance exchanges due to elevated acuity and potential subsidy changes, could impact future performance.
Risks from Exchange Market Changes
Less than 5% of membership comes from health insurance exchanges, but the potential loss of subsidies and changes in the marketplace pose some risk.
Company Guidance
During the Astrana Health Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided updated guidance for the full year 2025, projecting total revenue between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $215 million and $225 million. This update follows the recent acquisition of Prospect Health for $708 million, which is expected to contribute to Astrana's growth trajectory. The company reported strong financial performance for the quarter, with total revenues of $654.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of $48.1 million, signifying a 35% year-over-year revenue increase. Additionally, Astrana highlighted that 78% of its revenue now comes from full-risk contracts, and it maintained a controlled medical cost trend, slightly below the full-year expectation of 4.5%. The company also reaffirmed its medium-term adjusted EBITDA guidance of at least $350 million for 2027, demonstrating confidence in continued growth and profitability amidst industry challenges.Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Astrana Health exhibits strong cash flow growth and a healthier balance sheet with reduced leverage. However, declining profitability margins and reduced return on equity highlight areas for improvement. The company is well-positioned in terms of leverage and cash generation but needs to address operational efficiency to enhance profitability.Income Statement
Astrana Health has shown a consistent revenue growth trend, with a notable 7.49% increase in the TTM period. However, profitability margins such as the gross profit margin and net profit margin have declined over time, indicating potential cost pressures. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting challenges in operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has significantly improved in the TTM period, indicating a stronger balance sheet with reduced leverage. However, the return on equity has decreased, reflecting lower profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio remains stable, showcasing a solid capital structure.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Astrana Health has demonstrated impressive free cash flow growth of 126.75% in the TTM period, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio has improved, suggesting better cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains high, indicating reliance on cash flow for profitability.78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.42B | 2.03B | 1.39B | 1.14B | 773.91M | 370.25M |
| Gross Profit | 278.90M | 271.39M | 214.96M | 199.48M | 177.77M | 21.70M |
| EBITDA | 112.10M | 141.84M | 123.69M | 112.08M | 100.66M | 29.74M |
| Net Income | 25.26M | 43.15M | 60.72M | 45.17M | 68.92M | -23.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 878.71M | 1.35B | 933.36M | 966.21M | 867.36M | 817.49M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 342.12M | 290.83M | 296.31M | 293.59M | 286.51M | 261.17M |
| Total Debt | 29.39M | 471.84M | 321.01M | 229.36M | 200.98M | 260.56M |
| Total Liabilities | 230.25M | 840.73M | 522.59M | 407.67M | 356.72M | 372.34M |
| Stockholders Equity | 648.46M | 712.72M | 614.22M | 542.56M | 448.17M | 330.82M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 118.17M | 44.17M | 39.70M | 59.19M | 51.11M | 45.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 130.56M | 52.20M | 68.23M | 82.13M | 70.33M | 46.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -45.00M | -192.40M | -65.52M | -7.11M | 16.54M | 95.49M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -71.29M | 135.04M | 3.42M | -20.09M | -47.75M | -51.70M |
Astrana Health Technical Analysis
Positive
29.68
Price Trends
27.57
Positive
26.71
Positive
29.94
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
54.25
Neutral
49.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.50, above the 50-day MA of 27.57, and below the 200-day MA of 29.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTH.
Astrana Health Risk Analysis
Astrana Health disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Astrana Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Astrana Health Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | 1.42B | 12.67 | 13.18% | ― | -3.08% | ― | |
70 Outperform | 1.27B | 36.48 | 6.33% | 2.15% | 16.24% | 116.58% | |
69 Neutral | 1.57B | 11.85 | 8.21% | 2.02% | -16.10% | -48.97% | |
68 Neutral | $1.48B | 57.50 | 3.50% | ― | 51.97% | -64.10% | |
68 Neutral | 1.18B | 115.62 | 2.27% | ― | 5.17% | -65.33% | |
59 Neutral | 1.83B | 116.36 | -154.73% | ― | 11.53% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
ASTH
Astrana Health
29.68
-28.26
-48.77%
HCSG
Healthcare Services
16.36
5.19
46.46%
MD
Pediatrix Medical Group
16.30
4.71
40.64%
SEM
Select Medical
12.64
-5.84
-31.60%
USPH
US Physical Therapy
83.40
0.62
0.75%
AVAH
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings
8.75
3.55
68.27%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.