Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH)
NASDAQ:ASTH
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Astrana Health
(NASDAQ:ASTH)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(120.55% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/13/26
ASTH scores best on financial momentum and outlook: strong cash flow generation and an earnings call that reaffirmed guidance while emphasizing rapid deleveraging. The score is tempered by compressed margins/low returns in the financial statements, technically overbought conditions (RSI/Stoch), a mid-range valuation (P/E ~20.7 with no dividend yield provided), and added uncertainty from the announced CMO resignation.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained, high free cash flow and strong FCF growth provide durable financial flexibility to fund integrations, invest in AI/automation, return capital or absorb temporary underwriting volatility. FCF roughly matches net income (FCF/NI ~0.95), underscoring cash quality and self‑funding capacity.
Negative Factors
Compressed Margins & Low Returns
Margins and returns have deteriorated materially versus prior years, limiting internal capital for growth and reducing earnings resilience. Low net margin and ROE mean even solid revenue growth translates into limited incremental equity returns until medical cost performance and cohort maturation sustainably improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained, high free cash flow and strong FCF growth provide durable financial flexibility to fund integrations, invest in AI/automation, return capital or absorb temporary underwriting volatility. FCF roughly matches net income (FCF/NI ~0.95), underscoring cash quality and self‑funding capacity.
Read all positive factors
Astrana Health (ASTH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)486.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.7
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth56.69%
EPS Growth-15.92%
CountryUS
Employees1,900
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.62
Shares Outstanding49,583,420
10 Day Avg. Volume444,658
30 Day Avg. Volume486,350
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.56
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio11.65
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.57Price Target Upside123.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.00B
Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Astrana Health, Inc., Inc., a physician-centric technology-powered healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. It operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The compa...
How the Company Makes Money
Astrana Health generates revenue primarily by participating in value-based care arrangements in which it (directly or through affiliated entities) helps manage the total cost and quality of care for covered patient populations. Under these arrange...
Astrana Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial quarter with outsized revenue and EBITDA growth, meaningful free cash flow, accelerated deleveraging, confirmed platform‑driven operating leverage from AI, and on‑track integration of the Prospect acquisition. Management remains deliberately conservative in full‑year guidance due to enrollment and HQAF timing uncertainties and highlighted working capital effects from full‑risk transitions. Overall, the positives (robust growth, margin expansion levers, rapid deleveraging, and platform advantages) outweigh the manageable execution and macro/regulatory uncertainties called out by management.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Q1 revenue of $965.1M, up 56% year‑over‑year; adjusted EBITDA $66.3M, up 82% YoY; non‑GAAP adjusted EPS $0.74, up 76% YoY; net income attributable to Astrana $14.4M.
Negative Updates
Enrollment Uncertainty — Exchange and Medicaid Dynamics
Exchange and Medicaid trends showed variability year‑to‑date: management initially modeled 30%–40% ACA disenrollment but now expects a lower decline (~20%–30%) and said exchange attrition dynamics remain uncertain; company is conservatively assuming downside on Medicaid/exchange in guidance.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line and Profitability Growth
Q1 revenue of $965.1M, up 56% year‑over‑year; adjusted EBITDA $66.3M, up 82% YoY; non‑GAAP adjusted EPS $0.74, up 76% YoY; net income attributable to Astrana $14.4M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Astrana reaffirmed its full‑year 2026 guidance of $3.8–$4.1 billion of revenue, $250–$280 million of adjusted EBITDA and $105–$132.5 million of free cash flow, with a blended medical cost trend assumption of ~5.2%; Q2 guidance is $965 million–$1.0 billion of revenue and $65–$70 million of adjusted EBITDA. Management noted Q1 came in at the high end (Q1 revenue $965.1M, adjusted EBITDA $66.3M, adj. EPS $0.74, FCF $64.1M), pro forma net leverage has already declined to ~2.3x (2.2x vs. the guidance midpoint) and they expect to finish the year at or below ~2.0x; G&A was 6.4% of revenue (a 70 bps YoY improvement) and is expected to fall further. The guide assumes conservative Medicaid membership trends and zero HQAF contribution, treats the low end as a stacked‑downside case, and leaves room for upside from MA rate tailwinds, Prospect synergies (target $12M–$15M annual), cohort maturization, and AI/automation efficiencies.Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.53B | 3.18B | 2.03B | 1.39B | 1.14B | 773.91M |
| Gross Profit | 328.47M | 295.78M | 271.39M | 214.96M | 199.48M | 177.77M |
| EBITDA | 148.90M | 124.27M | 141.84M | 123.69M | 112.08M | 100.66M |
| Net Income | 30.23M | 22.49M | 43.15M | 60.72M | 45.17M | 68.92M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.36B | 2.22B | 1.35B | 933.36M | 966.21M | 867.36M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 478.38M | 429.47M | 290.83M | 296.31M | 293.59M | 286.51M |
| Total Debt | 1.07B | 1.08B | 471.84M | 321.01M | 229.36M | 200.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.78B | 1.66B | 840.73M | 522.59M | 407.67M | 356.72M |
| Stockholders Equity | 800.27M | 779.29M | 712.72M | 614.22M | 542.56M | 448.17M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 154.99M | 104.49M | 44.17M | 39.70M | 59.19M | 51.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 166.03M | 114.60M | 52.20M | 68.23M | 82.13M | 70.33M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -539.42M | -539.00M | -192.40M | -65.52M | -7.11M | 16.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 597.53M | 569.35M | 135.15M | 3.42M | -20.09M | -47.75M |
Astrana Health Technical Analysis
Positive
18.59
Price Trends
31.13
Positive
27.34
Positive
27.50
Positive
Market Momentum
2.11
Positive
61.42
Neutral
42.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.01, below the 50-day MA of 31.13, and below the 200-day MA of 27.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASTH.
Astrana Health Risk Analysis
Astrana Health disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Astrana Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Astrana Health Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.40B | 12.43 | 13.60% | ― | 6.46% | 72.30% | |
72 Outperform | $1.75B | 15.02 | 20.09% | ― | -2.25% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $1.60B | 8.22 | 241.47% | ― | 20.49% | 4335.46% | |
68 Neutral | $1.88B | 20.74 | 3.88% | ― | 56.69% | -15.92% | |
62 Neutral | $2.05B | 11.43 | 7.83% | 1.69% | -10.76% | -20.86% | |
57 Neutral | $942.96M | -65.63 | 0.24% | 2.25% | 13.73% | -77.14% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ASTH
Astrana Health
37.85
13.56
55.83%
HCSG
Healthcare Services
20.43
6.23
43.87%
MD
Pediatrix Medical Group
21.26
7.70
56.78%
SEM
Select Medical
16.52
2.38
16.86%
USPH
US Physical Therapy
61.96
-10.11
-14.03%
AVAH
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings
7.33
1.88
34.50%
Astrana Health Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Astrana Health Updates Investor Presentation via Regulation FD Disclosure
Neutral
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Astrana Health updated its corporate investor presentation, which it plans to use at upcoming conferences and meetings, and furnished the new slide deck via a Form 8-K. The company emphasized that the materials are furnished rathe...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Astrana Health Announces Upcoming Chief Medical Officer Resignation
Negative
May 12, 2026
Astrana Health, Inc. said that on May 7, 2026, Chief Medical Officer Dinesh Kumar, M.D., notified the company of his intention to resign, with his departure effective June 1, 2026. The company emphasized that Kumar’s resignation was not due ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Astrana Health Posts Strong Q1 Growth, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Astrana Health reported first-quarter 2026 results showing total revenue of $965.1 million, a 56% year-on-year increase, driven largely by Care Partners revenue of $909.7 million, alongside a 116% rise in net income to $14.4 millio...
Financial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Astrana Health details financial impact of PHP acquisition
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
On July 2, 2025, Astrana Health reported that it had completed the acquisition of all outstanding equity interests in Prospect Health Plan, Inc. and Alta Newport Hospital, LLC, along with substantially all assets of certain PHP Holdings subsidiari...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Astrana Health Updates Investor Presentation on Value-Based Strategy
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Astrana Health, Inc. updated its corporate investor presentation for use at conferences and meetings, highlighting its delegated financial model and role as a risk-bearing organization in value-based care. The materials describe ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Astrana Health Reports Record 2025 Results, Expands Buyback
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Astrana Health reported record 2025 results on March 2, 2026, with total revenue rising 56% to $3.18 billion, driven mainly by its Care Partners segment, while adjusted EBITDA increased 21% to $205.4 million and free cash flow reached $104.5 milli...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.