Astrana Health (ASTH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.16B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 515.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 121.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 68.17%
• EPS Growth: -85.42%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,900
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 50,155,613
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 703,036
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 515,237
• PEG Ratio: -1.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.62
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.69
• 1Y Price Target: $32.67
• Price Target Upside: -0.97% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $23.00 ▼(-30.28% Downside)

Astrana Health's strong revenue growth and strategic advancements are overshadowed by profitability challenges, high valuation, and bearish technical indicators. The earnings call provided positive insights, but delays in contract transitions and Medicaid headwinds pose risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth reflects strong market demand and successful integration of acquisitions, indicating robust business expansion and market penetration.

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation enhances Astrana Health's financial flexibility, enabling reinvestment in growth initiatives and providing a buffer against economic uncertainties.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships enhance market presence and service offerings, driving long-term growth and competitive advantage in the healthcare sector.

Negative Factors

Profitability Margins

Eroding profitability margins suggest cost pressures and operational inefficiencies, which could hinder sustainable long-term profitability if not addressed.

Contract Transition Delays

Delays in contract transitions may lead to revenue and profit shortfalls, affecting financial performance and strategic execution in the near term.

Medicaid Headwinds

Regulatory challenges in Medicaid could impact membership and rates, posing risks to revenue stability and growth in these segments.

Astrana Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Astrana Health (ASTH) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative healthcare solutions that enhance patient outcomes. Operating primarily within the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, Astrana Health specializes in the research and development of novel therapeutics, diagnostic tools, and digital health platforms. The company's core products include advanced therapies targeting chronic illnesses and personalized medicine solutions, aimed at improving patient care and optimizing treatment efficacy.

How the Company Makes Money

Astrana Health generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of its therapeutics and diagnostic products to healthcare providers and institutions. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, allowing for collaborative development and commercialization of new therapies, which can lead to shared revenue from product launches. Additionally, Astrana Health may receive funding through grants and research contracts aimed at advancing healthcare innovations. Licensing agreements for its proprietary technologies further contribute to its earnings, as the company can monetize its intellectual property by allowing other firms to use its innovations in exchange for royalties.

Astrana Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Astrana Health shows strong revenue growth but faces profitability challenges with declining margins and increased debt reliance. Positive cash flow relative to net income is a strength, but declining free cash flow and higher debt levels pose risks.

Income Statement

Astrana Health has shown a strong revenue growth rate of 19.73% in the TTM, indicating robust expansion. However, the gross profit margin has declined from 13.34% in 2024 to 10.15% in the TTM, suggesting increased cost pressures. The net profit margin has also decreased significantly from 2.12% in 2024 to 0.33% in the TTM, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these pressures, the company has managed to maintain positive revenue growth, which is a positive indicator.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.40 in the TTM from 0.66 in 2024, indicating a higher reliance on debt financing, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. The return on equity has decreased to 1.27% in the TTM from 6.05% in 2024, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating returns from equity. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has declined by 20.55% in the TTM, which is a concern for liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.17, indicating that operating cash flows are not fully covering net income, which could affect cash reserves. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains relatively high at 0.88, suggesting that the company is still generating cash relative to its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.90B	2.03B	1.39B	1.14B	773.91M	370.25M
Gross Profit	293.91M	271.39M	214.96M	199.48M	177.77M	21.70M
EBITDA	108.16M	141.84M	123.69M	112.08M	100.66M	29.74M
Net Income	9.54M	43.15M	60.72M	45.17M	68.92M	-23.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.24B	1.35B	933.36M	966.21M	867.36M	817.49M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	463.45M	290.83M	296.31M	293.59M	286.51M	261.17M
Total Debt	1.09B	471.84M	321.01M	229.36M	200.98M	260.56M
Total Liabilities	1.68B	840.73M	522.59M	407.67M	356.72M	372.34M
Stockholders Equity	775.54M	712.72M	614.22M	542.56M	448.17M	330.82M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	96.96M	44.17M	39.70M	59.19M	51.11M	45.00M
Operating Cash Flow	106.53M	52.20M	68.23M	82.13M	70.33M	46.16M
Investing Cash Flow	-571.24M	-192.40M	-65.52M	-7.11M	16.54M	95.49M
Financing Cash Flow	580.39M	135.15M	3.42M	-20.09M	-47.75M	-51.70M

Astrana Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 32.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASTH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.53, above the 50-day MA of 28.38, and above the 200-day MA of 28.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASTH.

Astrana Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MD	76 Outperform	$2.10B	12.91	19.98%	―	-4.21%	―
HCSG	72 Outperform	$1.34B	35.07	8.07%	―	6.26%	-19.33%
SEM	69 Neutral	$1.66B	15.35	5.57%	1.62%	-22.96%	-59.35%
USPH	61 Neutral	$1.12B	31.11	7.30%	2.43%	17.50%	154.28%
ASTH	56 Neutral	$1.16B	121.32	1.29%	―	68.17%	-85.42%
AVAH	54 Neutral	$1.94B	25.75	―	―	15.48%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Astrana Health Corporate Events

Astrana Health Inc. Reports Strong Q3 Earnings Amid Growth

Astrana Health Inc.’s recent earnings call painted a largely optimistic picture, underscored by significant revenue and EBITDA growth, the successful integration of Prospect Health, and advancements in technology. While the company faces challenges such as delays in transitioning to full risk contracts and potential Medicaid headwinds, the overall sentiment remained positive, buoyed by strong financial performance and strategic partnerships.

Astrana Health Reports Strong Revenue Growth in Q3 2025

Astrana Health, Inc. is a provider-centric, technology-powered healthcare company that focuses on delivering accessible, high-quality, and high-value care through its scalable care delivery infrastructure and proprietary technology platform. The company operates in the healthcare sector, supporting over 20,000 providers and 1.6 million patients in value-based care arrangements.

Astrana Health Reports Strong Q3 Revenue Growth

On November 6, 2025, Astrana Health announced its third-quarter financial results, reporting a 100% year-over-year increase in total revenue to $956 million, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $68.5 million. The company successfully integrated Prospect Health, exceeding performance expectations and expanding its market reach. Astrana also updated its full-year 2025 guidance to reflect delays in full-risk contract transitions, which are expected to complete in early 2026. The strategic partnerships and acquisitions are set to enhance Astrana’s position in the healthcare industry, focusing on coordinated, high-quality care delivery.

The most recent analyst rating on (ASTH) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Astrana Health stock, see the ASTH Stock Forecast page.