Guidance ReductionThe company lowered FY25 Adj EBITDA guide $15m at the midpoint, related to the pushed back timing of a capitated contract implementation.
Investor ConfidenceThe FY26 EBITDA bar for ASTH is low and implies very little investor confidence in the full-risk contract conversion delays that management is assuming will be effective in 1Q26.
Price Target AdjustmentThe price target was moved from $40 to $35, based on a 2026 EV/EBITDA-NCI target of 10.6x.