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Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH)
NASDAQ:ASTH
Earnings Data
Report Date
May 13, 2026TBA (Confirmed)
Period Ending
2026 (Q1)Consensus EPS Forecast
0.3Last Year’s EPS
0.14Same Quarter Last Year
Strong Buy
Based on 6 Analysts Ratings
Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call emphasized multiple record financial and operating milestones—strong double‑digit top-line growth, record adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, expanding geographic diversification, measurable operating leverage from the platform and AI, and progressing integration synergies from the Prospect acquisition. Management acknowledged near-term headwinds including a material weakness in controls (Form 12b-25), elevated 2026 cost assumptions, Medicaid/exchange disenrollment risk, transaction-related one-time costs, and leverage that create measurable but manageable risk. Guidance is framed conservatively with clear paths to the midpoint driven by realized synergies, ramping full-risk contracts, and AI-driven efficiencies.Company Guidance
Record Revenue and Profitability
Q4 total revenue of $950.5M, up 43% year-over-year; full year 2025 revenue of $3.2B, up 56% year-over-year and at the high end of guidance. Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $52.5M, up 50% year-over-year; full year adjusted EBITDA of $205.4M, a 21% increase year-over-year. Full-year adjusted (non-GAAP) EPS of $2.20 (record).
Strong Free Cash Flow and Conversion
Full year free cash flow of $104.5M with greater than 50% conversion relative to adjusted EBITDA, outperforming the high end of the previously communicated conversion range and demonstrating robust cash generation.
Membership and Geographic Expansion
Ended year serving 1.6M members in value-based care arrangements. California revenue grew 50% year-over-year while revenue outside California grew 90% year-over-year; about 19% of total revenue now from outside California, signaling geographic diversification.
Progress on Full-Risk Adoption
On track for ~80% of revenue and >36% of owned membership to be in full-risk arrangements by end of Q1 2026, reflecting continued shift toward fully delegated risk structures aligned with the company’s model.
Clinical Engagement and Outcomes
Annual wellness visit (AWV) completion rates approached ~80% in legacy Astrana markets with meaningful improvement in integrated Prospect populations. Providers using the platform show 24% higher gap-closure rates and 30% higher AWV completion versus less engaged providers.
Technology and AI-Driven Operating Leverage
Care enablement platform drove operating leverage: G&A as % of revenue was 6.8% in 2025, down 75 basis points year-over-year (110 bps on an adjusted basis) despite $26M of one-time transaction-related costs. More than two-thirds of prior authorizations are automatically approved, reducing administrative burden and improving access.
Successful Prospect Integration and Synergy Upside
Prospect integration progressed (standardized reporting, aligned clinical workflows); provider engagement strong with >97% gross retention among Prospect PCPs. Company now expects to achieve the high end of previously communicated $12M–$15M in annualized synergies over the coming quarters.
Capital Allocation and Balance Sheet Actions
Ended quarter with $429.5M cash, $648.7M net debt and pro forma net leverage of 2.6x. Repurchased 634,000 shares at an average price of $22.23 and the Board increased the buyback program authorization from $50M to $100M, reflecting confidence in long‑term value.
2026 Financial Guidance
Management provided 2026 guidance: revenue $3.8B–$4.1B, adjusted EBITDA $250M–$280M, and free cash flow $105M–$132.5M; Q1 2026 revenue guide $900M–$1.0B and adjusted EBITDA $60M–$70M, indicating expected continued growth and margin expansion.
Long-Term Track Record Since 2019
Since 2019 revenue up 467% (34% CAGR), adjusted EBITDA up 79% (25% CAGR), and free cash flow up 727% (42% CAGR), underscoring multi-year scalability and consistent compounding performance.
ASTH Earnings History
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat
Missed
ASTH Earnings-Related Price Changes
Report Date | Price 1 Day Before | Price 1 Day After | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Mar 04, 2026 | $24.51 | $25.59 | +4.41% |
Nov 06, 2025 | $33.36 | $25.54 | -23.46% |
Aug 07, 2025 | $21.46 | $28.08 | +30.85% |
May 08, 2025 | $33.44 | $29.71 | -11.14% |
Earnings announcements can affect a stock’s price. This table shows the stock's price the day before and the day after recent earnings reports, including the percentage change.
FAQ
When does Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) report earnings?
Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) is schdueled to report earning on May 13, 2026, TBA (Confirmed).
What is Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) earnings time?
Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) earnings time is at May 13, 2026, TBA (Confirmed).
Where can I see when companies are reporting earnings?
You can see which companies are reporting today on our designated earnings calendar.
What companies are reporting earnings today?
You can see a list of the companies which are reporting today on TipRanks earnings calendar.
What is ASTH EPS forecast?
ASTH EPS forecast for the fiscal quarter 2026 (Q1) is 0.3.