Agilon Health (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $244.48M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.66M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 5.21%
• EPS Growth: 5.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,076
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 414,869,750
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,987,629
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,657,479
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.05
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -0.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.24
• 1Y Price Target: $0.70
• Price Target Upside: 18.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.39
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.96B

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.48 ▼(-18.14% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, negative EBITDA, and persistent cash burn) and a clearly bearish technical setup (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call improves the outlook with quantified 2026 breakeven-EBITDA guidance and operational levers, but elevated medical cost trends, membership contraction, and policy uncertainty keep risk high; valuation is difficult to assess given the negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Platform Scale and Revenue Growth

Agilon’s rapid scaling to multi‑billion revenue demonstrates durable ability to win physician and payer partnerships. Scale supports fixed‑cost absorption, network effects, and stronger contracting leverage, giving the company structural capacity to convert top‑line reach into margin improvement over time.

Clinical Pathways & Data/Analytics

High clinical pathway adoption and an enhanced BOI data pipeline enable persistent, programmatic care improvements and better risk identification. Durable analytics and pathway penetration reduce utilization, improve quality scores, and support sustainable medical‑margin gains as interventions scale across the platform.

Credit Extension & Liquidity Discipline

Extending debt maturities materially reduces near‑term refinancing pressure, providing management time to execute the turnaround. Stricter covenants and collateral terms also impose liquidity discipline, which can stabilize capital structure while operational improvements aim to restore self‑funding.

Negative Factors

Persistent Cash Burn

Consistent negative operating and free cash flow erodes balance‑sheet cushion and increases dependence on external capital. Continued cash burn limits the company’s ability to invest in growth or absorb shocks, heightening the risk that turnaround initiatives will be constrained by financing availability or costly capital.

Elevated Medical Cost Trends

Sustained high medical cost trends and large claim volatility compress the spread that funds Agilon’s risk‑bearing model. Structural upward pressure on costs raises the bar for achieving projected medical‑margin improvements and makes multi‑period forecasting and reserve setting more uncertain.

Membership Contraction & Policy Risk

Exiting unprofitable contracts trimmed membership and scale, weakening revenue diversity and margin leverage. Coupled with CMS rate and risk‑adjustment uncertainty, smaller membership and potential policy shifts can permanently alter risk pools and reduce the company’s structural ability to drive consistent, scalable profits.

Agilon Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

agilon health, inc. offers healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it served approximately 238,000 senior members, which included 186,300 medicare advantage members and 51,700 medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. The company was formerly known as Agilon Health Topco, Inc. and changed its name to agilon health, inc. in March 2021. agilon health, inc. was founded in 2016 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Agilon Health generates revenue primarily through its partnerships with Medicare Advantage plans and healthcare providers. The company operates on a value-based care model, receiving payments based on the quality and efficiency of care delivered rather than the volume of services provided. Key revenue streams include care management fees, shared savings from improved patient outcomes, and risk-sharing agreements with payers. Agilon also benefits from technology platform subscriptions and analytics services that enhance the operations of its partner healthcare providers, creating a sustainable and scalable business model focused on improving senior healthcare.

Agilon Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue scaled rapidly (~$1.2B in 2020 to ~$6.1B in 2024), but results remain defined by persistent net losses and negative EBITDA. Cash flow is the biggest weakness with negative operating and free cash flow in every year shown (2025 OCF about -$106M; FCF about -$119M), and equity has fallen sharply (from ~$1.09B in 2021 to ~$127M in 2025) despite modest leverage.

Income Statement

Revenue scaled rapidly from ~$1.2B (2020) to ~$6.1B (2024), showing strong top-line expansion. However, profitability remains the key issue: the company has posted net losses every year, with net margin still negative (about -6.6% in 2025 vs. about -4.3% in 2024), and EBITDA also negative across the period—indicating the business has not yet demonstrated sustainable earnings power despite growth.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears modest with low debt relative to equity in recent years (debt-to-equity ~0.05–0.15 from 2021–2025), which reduces refinancing risk. The main concern is weakening balance-sheet cushion: stockholders’ equity has fallen sharply (from ~$1.09B in 2021 to ~$127M in 2025) alongside continued losses, and returns on equity are deeply negative in 2025—suggesting declining financial flexibility if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the most pressured area: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative every year shown, including 2025 (operating cash flow about -$106M; free cash flow about -$119M). While free cash flow improved versus 2024 and has sometimes been better than net income (reflecting non-cash losses), the business is still consuming cash rather than funding itself internally, which can increase reliance on external capital over time.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.93B	6.06B	4.32B	2.39B	1.52B
Gross Profit	-188.61M	4.84M	69.67M	111.36M	65.74M
EBITDA	-368.86M	-218.19M	-167.64M	-72.41M	-362.16M
Net Income	-405.35M	-260.15M	-262.60M	-106.55M	-406.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.27B	1.73B	1.74B	1.70B	1.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	285.14M	405.60M	495.10M	877.20M	1.05B
Total Debt	19.24M	43.96M	52.31M	52.57M	59.61M
Total Liabilities	1.14B	1.26B	1.08B	656.86M	494.66M
Stockholders Equity	126.73M	470.95M	661.84M	1.04B	1.09B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-119.00M	-71.03M	-187.01M	-163.47M	-161.59M
Operating Cash Flow	-105.76M	-57.78M	-156.20M	-130.81M	-148.16M
Investing Cash Flow	88.61M	139.89M	-44.02M	-444.39M	-90.51M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.99M	-2.58M	-193.13M	28.06M	1.15B

Agilon Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 0.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.53, below the 50-day MA of 0.71, and below the 200-day MA of 1.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AGL.

Agilon Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INNV	59 Neutral	$1.22B	192.69	2.56%	―	12.48%	-9.28%
AMN	52 Neutral	$752.73M	-7.81	-35.90%	―	-11.42%	-617.31%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CCRN	48 Neutral	$285.01M	-18.01	-3.76%	―	-22.14%	-787.87%
BTMD	47 Neutral	$96.80M	2.67	―	―	1.34%	185.03%
AGL	43 Neutral	$244.48M	-0.60	-135.64%	―	5.21%	5.21%
PIII	43 Neutral	$15.28M	-0.05	-257.39%	―	-2.15%	-6.72%

Agilon Health Corporate Events

Agilon Health Reports 2025 Losses, Outlines 2026 Turnaround

Agilon health on February 25, 2026 reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing platform membership declined to 625,000, driven by previously disclosed market exits, while revenue in the quarter rose 3% year on year to $1.57 billion but fell 2% to $5.93 billion for the full year. Profitability deteriorated sharply, with a 2025 gross loss of $160 million versus a prior-year gross profit, medical margin swinging to a $57 million loss, net loss widening to $391 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss nearly doubling to $296 million, even as management highlighted ongoing transformation efforts and a solid liquidity position with $285 million in cash and modest debt as it guides toward improved performance in 2026.

The fourth quarter of 2025 underscored the strain on agilon’s economics, as gross loss more than doubled to $91 million, medical margin turned negative $74 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss deepened to $142 million amid high medical cost trends in its Medicare Advantage book. Despite the worsening loss profile, the company reduced geography entry costs and maintained access to additional cash within its unconsolidated ACO entities, positioning itself to pursue its turnaround strategy in 2026 while absorbing the impact of strategic market exits and recalibrating growth around its remaining value-based care partnerships.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGL) stock is a Hold with a $0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agilon Health stock, see the AGL Stock Forecast page.

Agilon Health Amends Credit Agreement, Extends Debt Maturity

On February 12, 2026, agilon health, inc., together with related entities, entered into a third amendment to its existing credit agreement that extends the maturity date of its term loans from February 18, 2026 to February 18, 2028 and revises key financial covenants. The amendment shifts certain covenant baskets to EBITDA-based measures, imposes a $50 million daily minimum cash requirement, restricts certain payments to periods after the company generates positive EBITDA for two consecutive trailing four-quarter periods, requires term-loan prepayments with any reduction in letters of credit, reduces revolving commitments from $100 million to $90 million, increases cash collateralization of letters of credit, and is supported by a new unsecured parent guaranty, collectively tightening liquidity discipline while providing extended debt maturity.

These changes are likely to strengthen the company’s capital structure by providing additional time before debt repayment while also imposing stricter liquidity and performance thresholds on management. For lenders and other stakeholders, the revised terms increase safeguards around cash, collateral, and leverage, suggesting a recalibration of risk and return expectations as agilon navigates future operating conditions under its value-based care model.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGL) stock is a Hold with a $0.73 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agilon Health stock, see the AGL Stock Forecast page.

Agilon Health Updates CFO Agreement and Equity Incentives

On December 31, 2025, agilon health, inc. amended and restated the employment agreement for its Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Jeffrey Schwaneke, effective January 1, 2026, largely maintaining his prior contract while updating equity compensation and severance terms. The revised agreement grants Schwaneke a one-time award of 600,000 restricted stock units vesting over three years, a 2026 equity award valued at $3.75 million aligned with other executives, and eligibility for ordinary-course equity awards in 2027, while also enhancing retention incentives and clarifying severance protections that provide up to 12 months of salary and target bonus and continued vesting of equity awards under specified termination scenarios, signaling the company’s focus on leadership stability and long-term alignment with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGL) stock is a Hold with a $0.88 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agilon Health stock, see the AGL Stock Forecast page.