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Agilon Health
(NYSE:AGL)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$108.00
▲(10.20% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
Overall score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (persistent losses and negative operating/free cash flow). The latest earnings call improves the outlook due to raised 2026 guidance and a clear Q2 profitability/EBITDA turnaround, while technicals are mixed and valuation remains challenged by negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Clinical Program Outcomes
Deployment of CHF clinical pathways in ~90% of markets with inpatient-first diagnoses cut from ~25% to <5% is a durable operational win. Reducing costly inpatient admissions lowers total medical spend per member and strengthens medical margins under capitated contracts, supporting sustained performance if maintained.
Negative Factors
Negative Cash Flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow across reported periods indicates ongoing cash consumption rather than self‑funding. This weak cash generation constrains capital allocation, increases dependency on external liquidity, and limits the firm's ability to scale partnerships or absorb adverse contracting outcomes over the medium term.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Clinical Program Outcomes
Deployment of CHF clinical pathways in ~90% of markets with inpatient-first diagnoses cut from ~25% to <5% is a durable operational win. Reducing costly inpatient admissions lowers total medical spend per member and strengthens medical margins under capitated contracts, supporting sustained performance if maintained.
Read all positive factors
Agilon Health Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows income generated from each business segment, providing insight into diverse revenue streams and strategic focus areas.
Shows income generated from each business segment, providing insight into diverse revenue streams and strategic focus areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAgilon Health (AGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.53B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)322.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.53
Revenue Growth-2.82%
EPS Growth-45.70%
CountryUS
Employees856
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-15.38
Shares Outstanding16,683,786
10 Day Avg. Volume342,073
30 Day Avg. Volume322,225
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.05
P/FCF Ratio-2.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$114.56Price Target Upside16.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.72B
Agilon Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agilon Health, Inc. provides healthcare solutions specifically designed for older adults, delivered through local primary care physicians throughout the United States. As of December 31, 2021, the company served an approximate total of 238,000 sen...
How the Company Makes Money
Agilon Health primarily makes money through value-based care arrangements tied to Medicare Advantage and similar risk-based programs. In these models, a health plan (payer) pays a fixed, per-member-per-month amount (capitation or global budget) to...
Agilon Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized materially improved financial performance in Q2 (revenue growth, a large swing to positive medical margin, and a return to positive adjusted EBITDA), uplift from better-than-expected risk adjustment and stronger clinical program execution (CHF, Burden of Illness, ACO REACH). Management also highlighted enhanced data capabilities and ongoing AI/clinical pathway investments as durability drivers. Offsets and near-term risks include a year-over-year decline in MA membership driven by disciplined contracting, ongoing cost trend pressures (conservative reserving and ~7% cost trend assumptions for the back half), Part D exposure complexities, and uncertainty around 2027 contracting and membership. Overall, positives (financial turnaround, risk adjustment uplift, clinical program outcomes, and improved data visibility) outweigh the operational and timing headwinds, supporting constructive visibility into 2026 and a cautiously optimistic view into 2027.Positive Updates
Q2 Revenue Growth
Revenue for Q2 ~ $1.5B versus $1.4B in Q2 2025, an increase of ~7.1% year-over-year; full-year 2026 revenue guidance midpoint raised to approximately $5.8B.
Negative Updates
Year-over-Year Medicare Advantage Membership Decline
Medicare Advantage membership ended Q2 at 437,000 versus 498,000 in Q2 2025, a decline of ~61,000 members (~12.3% year-over-year). Management attributes decline to disciplined, profitability-focused contracting in 2026.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Revenue Growth
Revenue for Q2 ~ $1.5B versus $1.4B in Q2 2025, an increase of ~7.1% year-over-year; full-year 2026 revenue guidance midpoint raised to approximately $5.8B.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agilon raised full‑year 2026 guidance to revenue of approximately $5.8 billion, medical margin of about $485 million and adjusted EBITDA of roughly $85 million (including ACO REACH adjusted EBITDA of $25–30 million); Q3 midpoint guidance is ~$1.46 billion revenue, ~$110 million medical margin and break‑even adjusted EBITDA. In Q2 the company reported ~ $1.5 billion revenue, $197 million medical margin and $70 million adjusted EBITDA (beating midpoints by ~ $74 million and ~$50 million, respectively), with Medicare Advantage membership of 437,000 and ACO REACH membership of 112,000. Key drivers cited include a ~3% year‑over‑year risk adjustment uplift (net of V28), favorable prior‑year development of ~$22 million, YTD risk score impact (~$38 million), and Q1 cost trend improvement (~$14 million); cost trends were revised to 5.8% for full‑year 2025 (from 6.2%), Q1 2026 in the low‑6% range, Q2 recorded in the low‑7% range and management assumes roughly ~7% for the remainder of 2026. Balance sheet and program metrics noted: $257 million cash and marketable securities, $83 million off‑balance ACO cash, expected year‑end 2026 cash of at least $125 million; enhanced data pipeline >80% of payers; CHF pathway in 90% of markets (inpatient first diagnosis improved from ~25% to <5%); and ACO REACH delivered $229 million gross savings and a 96% average quality score for the 2024 performance year.Agilon Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.92B | 5.93B | 6.06B | 4.32B | 2.39B | 1.52B |
| Gross Profit | 82.00K | -188.61M | 4.84M | 69.67M | 111.36M | 65.74M |
| EBITDA | -234.01M | -368.86M | -218.19M | -167.64M | -72.41M | -362.16M |
| Net Income | -251.16M | -405.35M | -260.15M | -262.60M | -106.55M | -406.49M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.59B | 1.27B | 1.73B | 1.74B | 1.70B | 1.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 185.63M | 285.14M | 405.60M | 495.10M | 877.20M | 1.05B |
| Total Debt | 33.45M | 36.81M | 43.96M | 52.31M | 52.57M | 59.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.36B | 1.14B | 1.26B | 1.08B | 656.86M | 494.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 227.53M | 126.73M | 470.95M | 661.84M | 1.04B | 1.09B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -78.39M | -119.00M | -71.03M | -187.01M | -163.47M | -161.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -48.53M | -105.76M | -57.78M | -156.20M | -130.81M | -148.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 99.70M | 88.61M | 139.89M | -44.02M | -444.39M | -90.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.92M | -2.99M | -2.58M | -193.13M | 28.06M | 1.15B |
Agilon Health Risk Analysis
Agilon Health disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agilon Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agilon Health Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
59 Neutral | $1.54B | -37.65 | -9.20% | ― | 14.13% | 62.92% | |
54 Neutral | $71.22M | -0.25 | 184.97% | ― | -0.87% | 10.51% | |
53 Neutral | $1.30B | -39.10 | 3.15% | ― | 19.87% | 79.93% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.53B | -4.04 | -119.35% | ― | -2.82% | -45.70% | |
51 Neutral | $84.56M | 4.52 | -9.25% | ― | -5.63% | -29.34% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AGL
Agilon Health
95.51
73.93
342.54%
AMN
AMN Healthcare Services
36.00
19.51
118.31%
INNV
InnovAge Holding
11.18
7.95
246.13%
PIII
P3 Health Partners
11.58
4.98
75.45%
BTMD
biote
1.48
-1.34
-47.52%
Agilon Health Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Agilon Health Announces CTO Transition and Consulting Role
Neutral
Jul 22, 2026
On July 17, 2026, Agilon Health, Inc. notified Chief Technology Officer Girish Venkatachaliah that his employment will end effective August 1, 2026, and offered him a Severance Agreement that becomes effective eight days after execution. Concurren...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Agilon Health Shareholders Reelect Directors and Approve Auditor
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
At its June 2, 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, Agilon Health shareholders elected Diana McKenzie, Karen McLoughlin, and Ronald Williams as Class II directors to serve on the board until the 2029 annual meeting. The voting results show solid i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.