Agilon Health (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $374.66M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 5.21%
• EPS Growth: 5.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,076
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -0.27
• Shares Outstanding: 414,581,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,856,803
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,199,041
• PEG Ratio: 0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.13
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.41
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -1.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.53
• 1Y Price Target: $0.98
• Price Target Upside: 19.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.39
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.98B

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.80 ▼(-2.44% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (shrinking revenue, negative margins, and negative operating cash flow) and ongoing loss-heavy guidance from the latest earnings call. Technicals provide a modest near-term uplift, but valuation is hard to justify with negative earnings, and corporate-event risk is elevated due to the NYSE delisting notice.

Positive Factors

Value-based care platform

Agilon's core business provides an enduring operating platform that shifts primary care groups from fee-for-service to risk-bearing models. This structural alignment with Medicare Advantage/ACO programs generates recurring capitation-based revenue streams and embeds long-term partnerships with PCPs and payers.

Demonstrated profitable programs (ACO REACH)

A positive track record in ACO REACH shows the company can deliver clinically-driven cost savings and capture upside. Sustainable, replicable program profitability supports margin recovery as Agilon scales analytics, care pathways and payer alignment across remaining markets over the next several quarters.

Leadership and retention incentives

Strengthened CFO compensation and multi-year equity vesting signals management continuity and alignment with long-term turnaround goals. Retention of financial leadership improves execution risk profile for complex initiatives like contract renegotiations, analytics investments and operational centralization.

Negative Factors

Sharply weaker revenue and negative margins

Sustained revenue decline and negative profitability reflect shrinking scale and inability to cover fixed costs, limiting reinvestment capacity. Over months, this pressures payer negotiations, partner economics, and the firm's ability to demonstrate long-term margin improvement without structural fixes or favorable contract resets.

Operating cash flow weakness

Negative operating cash flow indicates the core risk-based operations currently consume cash, constraining liquidity and capital allocation. Over a multi-quarter horizon, persistent cash consumption raises refinancing and investment risk, complicating efforts to scale analytics and clinical programs that drive durable improvement.

Membership declines and risk-adjustment volatility

Erosion of enrolled membership reduces per-member scale economics and increases revenue volatility tied to risk scores. Declining attribution magnifies the impact of medical cost trends and lowers bargaining leverage with payers, making multi-quarter recovery of medical margins and forecasting more difficult.

Agilon Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

agilon health, inc. offers healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it served approximately 238,000 senior members, which included 186,300 medicare advantage members and 51,700 medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. The company was formerly known as Agilon Health Topco, Inc. and changed its name to agilon health, inc. in March 2021. agilon health, inc. was founded in 2016 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Agilon Health generates revenue primarily through its partnerships with Medicare Advantage plans and healthcare providers. The company operates on a value-based care model, receiving payments based on the quality and efficiency of care delivered rather than the volume of services provided. Key revenue streams include care management fees, shared savings from improved patient outcomes, and risk-sharing agreements with payers. Agilon also benefits from technology platform subscriptions and analytics services that enhance the operations of its partner healthcare providers, creating a sustainable and scalable business model focused on improving senior healthcare.

Agilon Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Agilon Health faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues and negative margins. The income statement shows operational difficulties, while the balance sheet reflects low leverage but poor returns on equity. Cash flow analysis indicates some improvement in free cash flow but ongoing cash flow challenges.

Income Statement

Agilon Health's income statement reflects significant challenges. The company has experienced a negative revenue growth rate of -26.5% in the TTM period, indicating a decline in sales. Margins are also concerning, with a negative gross profit margin and a net profit margin of -5.24%, highlighting ongoing profitability issues. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, suggesting operational inefficiencies. Overall, the income statement shows a company struggling with revenue contraction and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Agilon Health presents a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.11, indicating manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity is significantly negative at -73.12%, reflecting substantial losses relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 19.17%, suggesting a moderate level of equity financing. While leverage is under control, the negative ROE indicates financial instability.

Cash Flow

Agilon Health's cash flow statement reveals some areas of concern. The operating cash flow is negative, and the free cash flow growth rate is positive at 39.67%, indicating some improvement. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.33, indicating that free cash flow covers net income, but the overall cash flow situation remains weak.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.89B	6.06B	4.32B	2.39B	1.52B	1.22B
Gross Profit	-115.04M	4.84M	69.67M	111.36M	65.74M	94.15M
EBITDA	-286.59M	-218.19M	-167.64M	-72.41M	-362.16M	-40.11M
Net Income	-308.25M	-260.15M	-262.60M	-106.55M	-406.49M	-60.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.60B	1.73B	1.74B	1.70B	1.59B	446.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	310.85M	405.60M	495.10M	877.20M	1.05B	106.80M
Total Debt	37.12M	43.96M	52.31M	52.57M	59.61M	73.21M
Total Liabilities	1.29B	1.26B	1.08B	656.86M	494.66M	731.09M
Stockholders Equity	306.08M	470.95M	661.84M	1.04B	1.09B	-284.73M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-98.54M	-71.03M	-187.01M	-163.47M	-161.59M	-55.55M
Operating Cash Flow	-68.81M	-57.78M	-156.20M	-130.81M	-148.16M	-53.20M
Investing Cash Flow	89.70M	139.89M	-44.02M	-444.39M	-90.51M	22.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.00M	-2.58M	-193.13M	28.06M	1.15B	24.62M

Agilon Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 0.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.72, above the 50-day MA of 0.69, and below the 200-day MA of 1.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AGL.

Agilon Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INNV	57 Neutral	$743.53M	-42.48	-6.86%	―	12.48%	-9.28%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
AMN	50 Neutral	$601.18M	-2.17	-35.90%	―	-11.42%	-617.31%
CCRN	48 Neutral	$268.96M	-17.00	-3.76%	―	-22.14%	-787.87%
BTMD	47 Neutral	$115.53M	3.19	―	―	1.34%	185.03%
AGL	46 Neutral	$374.66M	-1.16	-73.31%	―	5.21%	5.21%
PIII	43 Neutral	$24.43M	-0.08	-257.39%	―	-2.15%	-6.72%

Agilon Health Corporate Events

Agilon Health Updates CFO Agreement and Equity Incentives

On December 31, 2025, agilon health, inc. amended and restated the employment agreement for its Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Jeffrey Schwaneke, effective January 1, 2026, largely maintaining his prior contract while updating equity compensation and severance terms. The revised agreement grants Schwaneke a one-time award of 600,000 restricted stock units vesting over three years, a 2026 equity award valued at $3.75 million aligned with other executives, and eligibility for ordinary-course equity awards in 2027, while also enhancing retention incentives and clarifying severance protections that provide up to 12 months of salary and target bonus and continued vesting of equity awards under specified termination scenarios, signaling the company’s focus on leadership stability and long-term alignment with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGL) stock is a Hold with a $0.88 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agilon Health stock, see the AGL Stock Forecast page.

Agilon Health Faces NYSE Delisting Notice

On November 5, 2025, agilon health received a notice from the New York Stock Exchange indicating non-compliance with listing standards due to its stock price falling below $1.00 per share over a 30-day period. The company plans to address this by pursuing a reverse stock split, pending stockholder approval at its 2026 annual meeting, to regain compliance and maintain its NYSE listing.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGL) stock is a Hold with a $0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agilon Health stock, see the AGL Stock Forecast page.

Agilon Health Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

On November 4, 2025, Agilon Health reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a decrease in total revenue to $1.44 billion and a net loss of $110 million. The company is undergoing transformation initiatives, including a $30 million reduction in operating costs expected in 2026. Despite challenges such as lower-than-expected risk adjustment revenue and market exits, Agilon is focusing on improving financial performance and maintaining strong expectations for its clinical and quality initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGL) stock is a Hold with a $1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agilon Health stock, see the AGL Stock Forecast page.