Agilon Health (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $530.46M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 16.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.34
• Revenue Growth: 10.12%
• EPS Growth: -29.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,076
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 414,423,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,529,772
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 16,322,794
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -6.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.24
• 1Y Price Target: $1.21
• Price Target Upside: -4.72% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 40 Underperform
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-21.26% Downside)

Agilon Health's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, with declining revenues and negative profitability metrics. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and the valuation is unattractive due to negative earnings and lack of dividends. The earnings call further highlighted strategic challenges and uncertainties, contributing to a negative outlook.

Positive Factors

Data Advancements

An enhanced data platform that went into effect is expected to provide much improved forecasting accuracy for RAF scores and cost trends for 2026.

Rate Hike

There is a 5.06% rate hike for MA plans, which have expressed plans to set pricing and benefits to rebuild margins in 2026.

Strategic Value

AGL is seen as a strategically valuable asset that could be attractive to buyers, which is supportive of valuation.

Negative Factors

Earnings Miss

The stock was cut roughly in half as agilon reported a wide 2Q miss, suspended full year 2025 guidance, and announced that CEO Steven Sell had stepped down.

Leadership Changes

CEO Steve Sell stepped down, and AGL is searching for a permanent replacement.

Margin Pressures

AGL is being downgraded to Market-Perform due to worse-than-expected margin pressures during 2024 and continued pressure during 2025.

Agilon Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Agilon Health (AGL) is a healthcare company focused on transforming primary care through partnerships with physician groups. The company operates within the healthcare services sector, providing a value-based care platform that aligns with primary care physicians to improve outcomes for patients and lower healthcare costs. Agilon Health's core service is enabling primary care providers to transition to a value-based care model, supporting them with technology, analytics, and administrative resources.

How the Company Makes Money

Agilon Health generates revenue primarily through partnerships with physician groups by helping them transition to value-based care models. The company earns money by entering into long-term partnerships where it shares in the savings generated from improved patient outcomes and reduced healthcare costs. Agilon Health provides its partner physician groups with a comprehensive platform that includes technology, data analytics, and management services, which helps these groups manage patient care more efficiently. The company's revenue streams are largely driven by the shared savings and performance-based payments from payers, including Medicare Advantage plans. Significant partnerships with healthcare providers and insurers play a crucial role in its revenue generation strategy.

Agilon Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Agilon Health faces significant financial challenges, marked by ongoing losses and cash flow issues. While revenue growth has been strong, the company struggles with profitability, leading to a negative impact on equity and cash positions. The low leverage provides some financial flexibility, but improving margins and cash generation is critical for future stability.

Income Statement

Agilon Health's income statement reveals significant challenges with profitability and growth. The TTM shows a gross profit margin of -0.53%, indicating costs exceed revenues. The net profit margin is -4.04%, reflecting ongoing losses. Revenue growth has been robust historically, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 32% from 2020 to 2025 TTM, yet profitability remains elusive with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins in the TTM.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08 in the TTM suggests low leverage, which is positive. However, the return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses, and the equity ratio has decreased from 66% in 2021 to 26% in the TTM, indicating growing liabilities and reduced equity.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis indicates weak cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to convert income into cash, but free cash flow remains negative and volatile. The free cash flow to net income ratio shows a consistent pattern of cash outflows exceeding net income losses, reflecting ongoing cash challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.90B	6.06B	4.32B	2.71B	1.83B	1.22B
Gross Profit	-110.62M	4.84M	69.67M	112.29M	76.41M	94.15M
EBITDA	-297.75M	-218.19M	-167.64M	-72.41M	-383.78M	-40.11M
Net Income	-315.66M	-260.15M	-262.60M	-106.86M	-405.48M	-63.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.71B	1.73B	1.74B	1.70B	1.59B	446.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	327.00M	399.97M	488.34M	908.97M	1.04B	106.80M
Total Debt	41.37M	41.50M	52.31M	43.48M	48.40M	73.21M
Total Liabilities	1.30B	1.26B	1.08B	656.86M	494.66M	731.09M
Stockholders Equity	408.93M	470.95M	661.84M	1.04B	1.09B	-284.73M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-70.55M	-71.03M	-187.01M	-163.47M	-161.59M	-55.55M
Operating Cash Flow	-58.36M	-57.78M	-156.20M	-130.81M	-148.16M	-53.20M
Investing Cash Flow	117.61M	139.89M	-44.02M	-444.39M	-90.51M	22.07M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.17M	-2.58M	-193.13M	28.06M	1.15B	24.62M

Agilon Health Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.27
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.12, below the 50-day MA of 1.75, and below the 200-day MA of 2.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGL.

Agilon Health Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACHC	72 Outperform	$2.12B	15.13	4.62%	―	5.64%	―
ASTH	72 Outperform	$1.60B	61.76	3.50%	―	51.97%	-64.10%
SEM	68 Neutral	$1.61B	12.20	8.15%	1.96%	-16.10%	-48.97%
SGRY	63 Neutral	$2.91B	―	-9.75%	―	12.05%	-432.59%
LFST	61 Neutral	$2.13B	―	-1.11%	―	13.86%	89.49%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.33	-41.57%	2.23%	23.26%	-2.03%
AGL	40 Underperform	$530.46M	―	-60.64%	―	10.12%	-29.12%

Agilon Health Corporate Events

Agilon Health CEO Resignation and Earnings Guidance Suspension

On July 29, 2025, Steven J. Sell resigned as CEO and President of Agilon Health, leading to the establishment of an Office of the Chairman and interim executive officers. This leadership change, along with market challenges, prompted Agilon to suspend its 2025 earnings guidance. The company’s second-quarter results showed a 6% revenue decline and significant losses, attributed to market exits and reduced risk adjustment revenue. Agilon continues to focus on strategic initiatives to improve performance and expects to benefit from these efforts in the future.

Agilon Health Elects New Directors at Annual Meeting

On May 28, 2025, Agilon Health held its annual meeting of stockholders where Silvana Battaglia and Sharad Mansukani, M.D. were elected as Class I directors to serve until the 2028 annual meeting. Additionally, stockholders ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 and approved, on a non-binding basis, the executive compensation for the company’s named officers.