Agilon Health (AGL)
NYSE:AGL
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Agilon Health
(NYSE:AGL)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(19.05% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/16/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—ongoing losses, sustained cash burn, and a reduced equity cushion. Technicals are supportive with strong momentum above major moving averages, but overbought indicators raise near-term risk. The latest guidance supports a potential 2026 stabilization toward breakeven, though execution and medical-cost/regulatory uncertainty remain significant.
Positive Factors
Value-based care platform & clinical pathways
High network adoption of standardized clinical pathways and an enhanced BOI/data pipeline (>85% member coverage, >99% correlation) materially strengthens care consistency, enables earlier high‑risk identification and supports durable medical-cost management and quality improvements across the platform.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn & negative free cash flow
Consistent negative operating and free cash flow forces reliance on external financing or asset actions to fund operations. Over time this erodes financial flexibility, can limit reinvestment in network or technology, and raises execution risk if cash requirements persist while margins remain depressed.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Value-based care platform & clinical pathways
High network adoption of standardized clinical pathways and an enhanced BOI/data pipeline (>85% member coverage, >99% correlation) materially strengthens care consistency, enables earlier high‑risk identification and supports durable medical-cost management and quality improvements across the platform.
Read all positive factors
Agilon Health (AGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$446.37M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)258.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.63
Revenue Growth5.21%
EPS Growth5.21%
CountryUS
Employees1,076
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-11.50
Shares Outstanding16,605,993
10 Day Avg. Volume415,223
30 Day Avg. Volume258,943
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.25
Price to Sales (P/S)0.05
P/FCF Ratio-2.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.32Price Target Upside-23.64% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)-5.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.50B
Agilon Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
agilon health, inc. offers healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it served approximately 238,000 senior members, which included 186,300 medicare advantage ...
How the Company Makes Money
Agilon makes money by taking on and managing financial risk for the total cost of care of a defined patient population (primarily Medicare Advantage members) in partnership with local physician groups.
Key elements of the revenue model:
- Capitat...
Agilon Health Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows income generated from each business segment, providing insight into diverse revenue streams and strategic focus areas.
Shows income generated from each business segment, providing insight into diverse revenue streams and strategic focus areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAgilon Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call communicated a clear, quantified plan for a material financial turnaround in 2026 — including specific revenue, medical margin and adjusted EBITDA targets — supported by strengthened data/analytics, scaled clinical pathways (CHF adoption >90%), quality improvement (composite ~4.2 stars) and $35M of operating cost reductions. However, significant 2025 losses (FY adjusted EBITDA -$296M), elevated and volatile medical cost trends (2025 ~6.5%, 2026 assumed gross 7.5%/net 7.0%), membership contraction from contract exits (≈50k MA members), and regulatory uncertainty around CMS’ rate notice present meaningful near-term risks. On balance, the call presented balanced progress and material challenges: management provided credible levers and quantified guidance for improvement, but execution and external factors (cost trends, CMS rates, claims visibility) are non‑trivial risks to achieving the stated goals.Positive Updates
2026 Financial Guidance and Projected Turnaround
Company provided full-year 2026 guidance of $5.41B–$5.58B revenue (midpoint $5.5B) versus 2025 revenue of $5.93B (≈ -7.3% YoY). 2026 medical margin guidance $300M–$350M (midpoint $325M) compared with a 2025 full-year medical margin of -$57M (implying ≈ $382M year-over-year improvement in medical margin). Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 is -$15M to +$15M (breakeven at midpoint) versus 2025 adjusted EBITDA of -$296M (≈ $296M improvement to midpoint). ACO REACH expected contribution of $20M–$25M in 2026. Expect to end 2026 with at least $125M cash on hand; ended FY2025 with $285M cash & marketable securities plus $91M off-balance-sheet ACO cash.
Negative Updates
2025 Financial Shortfalls and Key Loss Metrics
2025 results were unsatisfactory: Q4 revenue $1.57B and FY2025 revenue $5.93B. Q4 medical margin -$74M and full-year medical margin -$57M. Adjusted EBITDA Q4 -$142M and FY2025 -$296M. Performance was impacted by lower-than-expected risk-adjustment revenue, exited markets (≈ -$60M), and prior-year development (≈ -$53M).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
2026 Financial Guidance and Projected Turnaround
Company provided full-year 2026 guidance of $5.41B–$5.58B revenue (midpoint $5.5B) versus 2025 revenue of $5.93B (≈ -7.3% YoY). 2026 medical margin guidance $300M–$350M (midpoint $325M) compared with a 2025 full-year medical margin of -$57M (implying ≈ $382M year-over-year improvement in medical margin). Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 is -$15M to +$15M (breakeven at midpoint) versus 2025 adjusted EBITDA of -$296M (≈ $296M improvement to midpoint). ACO REACH expected contribution of $20M–$25M in 2026. Expect to end 2026 with at least $125M cash on hand; ended FY2025 with $285M cash & marketable securities plus $91M off-balance-sheet ACO cash.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
agilon’s 2026 guidance targets year‑end platform membership of 525,000–540,000 (Medicare Advantage ~430,000; ACO ~103,000 at the midpoint), full‑year revenue of $5.41B–$5.58B (midpoint ~$5.5B), medical margin of $300M–$350M (midpoint $325M) and adjusted EBITDA of -$15M to +$15M (breakeven at midpoint) with ACO REACH contributing $20M–$25M; assumptions include a gross cost trend of 7.5% (net ~7.0% after ~50 bps benefit from payer bids), a BOI-driven ~40 bps net improvement in risk capture, over $625M of incremental medical‑margin value from contracting and bids, Part D exposure reduced to <15% of membership, G&A of ~ $234M, geography entry expense of ~$15M, $35M of operating cost reductions already executed, an enhanced data pipeline covering >85% of members (99%+ correlation), heart‑failure pathway adoption >90% of the network, and an expectation to end 2026 with at least $125M of cash (including ACO entities).Agilon Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.93B | 6.06B | 4.32B | 2.39B | 1.52B |
| Gross Profit | -188.61M | 4.84M | 69.67M | 111.36M | 65.74M |
| EBITDA | -368.86M | -218.19M | -167.64M | -72.41M | -362.16M |
| Net Income | -405.35M | -260.15M | -262.60M | -106.55M | -406.49M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.27B | 1.73B | 1.74B | 1.70B | 1.59B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 285.14M | 405.60M | 495.10M | 877.20M | 1.05B |
| Total Debt | 36.81M | 43.96M | 52.31M | 52.57M | 59.61M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.14B | 1.26B | 1.08B | 656.86M | 494.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 126.73M | 470.95M | 661.84M | 1.04B | 1.09B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -119.00M | -71.03M | -187.01M | -163.47M | -161.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -105.76M | -57.78M | -156.20M | -130.81M | -148.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 88.61M | 139.89M | -44.02M | -444.39M | -90.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.99M | -2.58M | -193.13M | 28.06M | 1.15B |
Agilon Health Technical Analysis
Positive
22.68
Price Trends
13.88
Positive
16.53
Positive
24.41
Positive
Market Momentum
2.47
Negative
77.70
Negative
97.81
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.24, above the 50-day MA of 13.88, and below the 200-day MA of 24.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.70 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.81 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGL.
Agilon Health Risk Analysis
Agilon Health disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agilon Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agilon Health Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $1.11B | 16.58 | -1.69% | ― | 12.48% | -9.28% | |
55 Neutral | $77.91M | 3.01 | -35.31% | ― | 1.34% | 185.03% | |
54 Neutral | $324.48M | -2.77 | -24.30% | ― | -22.14% | -787.87% | |
52 Neutral | $748.77M | -6.34 | -14.67% | ― | -11.42% | -617.31% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $446.37M | -0.70 | -116.65% | ― | 5.21% | 5.21% | |
47 Neutral | $17.60M | -0.04 | -257.39% | ― | -2.15% | -6.72% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AGL
Agilon Health
26.88
-109.87
-80.34%
AMN
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19.37
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6.31%
CCRN
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10.04
-4.23
-29.64%
INNV
InnovAge Holding
8.15
5.31
186.97%
PIII
P3 Health Partners
2.44
-7.38
-75.15%
BTMD
biote
1.97
-1.34
-40.48%
Agilon Health Corporate Events
Shareholder MeetingsStock Split
Agilon Health Enacts 1-for-25 Reverse Stock Split
Neutral
Mar 30, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Agilon Health implemented a 1-for-25 reverse stock split of its issued and outstanding common shares, following shareholder approval at a special meeting held on March 17, 2026. At the effective time, each block of 25 existing s...
Delistings and Listing ChangesShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Agilon Health Announces 1-for-25 Reverse Stock Split
Neutral
Mar 18, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Agilon Health stockholders approved an amendment to its certificate of incorporation authorizing a reverse stock split at a ratio between 1-for-5 and 1-for-25, and the board subsequently set the split at 1-for-25. The move follo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Agilon Health Reports 2025 Losses, Outlines 2026 Turnaround
Negative
Feb 25, 2026
Agilon health on February 25, 2026 reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results showing platform membership declined to 625,000, driven by previously disclosed market exits, while revenue in the quarter rose 3% year on year to $1.57 billion ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Agilon Health Amends Credit Agreement, Extends Debt Maturity
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 12, 2026, agilon health, inc., together with related entities, entered into a third amendment to its existing credit agreement that extends the maturity date of its term loans from February 18, 2026 to February 18, 2028 and revises key...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.