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Agilon Health Inc (AGL)
:AGL
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Agilon Health
(NYSE:AGL)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(15.74%Upside)
Positive Factors
Earnings Performance
1Q results were decent with revenues coming in 2% above consensus and adjusted EBITDA of $20.6m beating consensus by nearly 30%.
Financial Technology
The company believes its new financial data pipeline will significantly improve visibility into both revenue and claims experience and allow for a more typical reserving / development process.
Guidance and Revenue
AGL raised the low end of its revenue guidance by $25MM to reflect retroactive membership assignment and corresponding revenue recognized in Q1.
Negative Factors
Price Target
Lowering our price target to $5, justified given lower near-term growth trajectory and uncertainty on MA trend.
PYD Issues
Results included material net negative PYD, which has been a persistent issue for AGL over the past couple of years.
Agilon Health (AGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$869.30M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth19.18%
EPS Growth-6.14%
CountryUS
Employees1,076
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength41
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding413,951,780
10 Day Avg. Volume3,956,589
30 Day Avg. Volume4,944,413
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.20
Price to Book (P/B)2.53
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-14.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-151.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.60Price Target Upside112.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
Agilon Health Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAgilon Health (AGL) is a healthcare company focused on transforming primary care through partnerships with physician groups. The company operates within the healthcare services sector, providing a value-based care platform that aligns with primary care physicians to improve outcomes for patients and lower healthcare costs. Agilon Health's core service is enabling primary care providers to transition to a value-based care model, supporting them with technology, analytics, and administrative resources.
How the Company Makes MoneyAgilon Health generates revenue primarily through partnerships with physician groups by helping them transition to value-based care models. The company earns money by entering into long-term partnerships where it shares in the savings generated from improved patient outcomes and reduced healthcare costs. Agilon Health provides its partner physician groups with a comprehensive platform that includes technology, data analytics, and management services, which helps these groups manage patient care more efficiently. The company's revenue streams are largely driven by the shared savings and performance-based payments from payers, including Medicare Advantage plans. Significant partnerships with healthcare providers and insurers play a crucial role in its revenue generation strategy.
Agilon Health Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -51.57%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed performance with stable membership and advancements in technology and clinical pathways, but also highlights challenges such as revenue and medical margin declines, along with negative prior period developments. Despite improvements in contracting terms and payer relations, ongoing utilization pressures continue to affect financial outcomes.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Membership Consistency
Q1 membership was 491,000, remaining flat year over year, indicating stability in member retention despite market exits.
Technology and Clinical Advancements
Significant progress in technology and clinical pathways, including AI capabilities, improved data integration, and the launch of heart failure and palliative programs.
Improved Contracting Terms
Enhanced payer contracting terms led to a 280 basis point increase in CMS final rate notice for 2026, indicating better economic terms and reduced exposure to Medicare Part D.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Medical Margin Decline
Revenue for Q1 2025 was $1.53 billion, down from $1.60 billion in Q1 2024, and medical margin was $128 million compared to $157 million in Q1 2024, driven by elevated utilization and negative prior period development.
Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $21 million, a decrease from $29 million in Q1 2024, reflecting cost trends and timing of new market entries.
Negative Prior Period Development
First quarter results included negative prior period development of $22 million, impacting financial performance.
Company Guidance
During the agilon health First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, guidance was provided indicating that the company reported membership, revenue, medical margin, and adjusted EBITDA in line with their Q1 guidance range. Membership was at 491,000, relatively flat year over year, and Medicare Advantage membership guidance for Q2 is between 485,000 to 515,000, with full-year expectations at 490,000 to 520,000. Revenue for Q1 was $1.53 million, with full-year guidance ranging from $5.85 billion to $6.03 billion. Medical margin for Q1 was $128 million, with full-year projections between $275 million and $325 million. Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was $21 million, with full-year guidance between negative $95 million to negative $55 million. The company emphasized continued investment in technology and clinical programs, aiming for cash flow breakeven by 2027, and highlighted a 280 basis points increase in the 2026 CMS final rate notice, which they expect to positively impact future financial performance.Agilon Health Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Agilon Health shows strong revenue growth but continues to face profitability challenges with persistent net losses and negative cash flows. The balance sheet indicates financial stability with no debt, yet the inability to generate profits and positive cash flows remains concerning for long-term sustainability.Income Statement
Agilon Health has shown significant revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $1218M in 2020 to $6060M in 2024. However, the company continues to face profitability challenges with consistent net losses, resulting in negative net profit margins. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies. Despite the revenue growth, the inability to translate this into profit remains a concern.60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a reasonably strong equity position with a positive stockholders' equity of $471M in 2024, although it has decreased from previous years. The company has no debt as of 2024, which is a positive aspect, but the overall equity ratio has declined. The return on equity remains negative due to continued net losses, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Agilon Health's cash flow situation is concerning, with consistently negative operating cash flow and free cash flow over the years. The free cash flow has deteriorated further in 2024, showing a decline from 2023. Although there are some improvements in investing cash flow, the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates difficulties in managing operational cash efficiently.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 6.06B | 4.32B | 2.71B | 1.83B | 1.22B | Gross Profit |
| 4.84M | 69.67M | 112.29M | 76.41M | 94.15M | EBIT |
| -292.13M | -232.13M | -110.21M | -393.95M | -56.67M | EBITDA |
| -218.19M | -167.64M | -72.41M | -383.78M | -40.11M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -260.10M | -262.60M | -106.86M | -405.48M | -63.21M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 399.97M | 488.34M | 908.97M | 1.04B | 106.80M | Total Assets |
| 1.73B | 1.74B | 1.70B | 1.59B | 446.36M | Total Debt |
| 41.50M | 52.31M | 43.48M | 48.40M | 73.21M | Net Debt |
| -146.73M | -55.26M | -453.59M | -991.64M | -33.58M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.26B | 1.08B | 656.86M | 494.66M | 731.09M | Stockholders Equity |
| 470.95M | 661.84M | 1.04B | 1.09B | -284.73M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -71.03M | -187.01M | -163.47M | -161.59M | -55.55M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -57.78M | -156.20M | -130.81M | -148.16M | -53.20M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 139.89M | -44.02M | -444.39M | -90.51M | 22.07M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -2.58M | -193.13M | 28.06M | 1.15B | 24.62M |
Agilon Health Technical Analysis
Negative
2.16
Price Trends
3.58
Negative
3.59
Negative
3.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.40
Negative
32.82
Neutral
14.99
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.39, below the 50-day MA of 3.58, and below the 200-day MA of 3.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 32.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.99 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGL.
Agilon Health Risk Analysis
Agilon Health disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agilon Health reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
If securities or industry analysts do not continue to publish research or reports about our business, if they adversely change their recommendations regarding our shares or if our results of operations do not meet their expectations, our stock price and trading volume could decline. Q4, 2024
2.
Our stock price may be volatile or may decline regardless of our operating performance, resulting in substantial losses for investors of our common stock. Q4, 2024
3.
We use and expect to expand our use of AI and machine learning in our business and challenges with properly managing the development and use of these technologies could result in harm to our reputation, business or customers, legal liability and adversely affect our results of operations Q4, 2024
Agilon Health Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.25B | 34.19 | 5.00% | ― | 54.81% | -45.07% | |
64 Neutral | $1.96B | 11.42 | 10.38% | 2.46% | -8.86% | -36.22% | |
63 Neutral | $2.96B | ― | -10.43% | ― | 13.54% | -30732.00% | |
63 Neutral | $2.31B | ― | -2.47% | ― | 16.31% | 79.86% | |
60 Neutral | $2.08B | 11.16 | 6.35% | ― | 5.48% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $5.24B | 3.27 | -45.39% | 2.80% | 16.77% | -0.07% | |
45 Neutral | $869.30M | ― | -42.95% | ― | 19.18% | -6.14% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AGL
Agilon Health
2.16
-4.54
-67.76%
ACHC
Acadia Healthcare
22.74
-46.85
-67.32%
SEM
Select Medical
15.44
-2.22
-12.57%
SGRY
Surgery Partners
23.19
-2.48
-9.66%
ASTH
Astrana Health
25.26
-14.12
-35.86%
LFST
Lifestance Health Group
5.84
0.49
9.16%
Agilon Health Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Agilon Health Elects New Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 30, 2025
On May 28, 2025, Agilon Health held its annual meeting of stockholders where Silvana Battaglia and Sharad Mansukani, M.D. were elected as Class I directors to serve until the 2028 annual meeting. Additionally, stockholders ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 and approved, on a non-binding basis, the executive compensation for the company’s named officers.
The most recent analyst rating on (AGL) stock is a Sell with a $2.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agilon Health stock, see the AGL Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Agilon Health Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Negative
May 6, 2025
On May 6, 2025, Agilon Health reported its financial results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, with total revenues of $1.53 billion, a 4% decrease from the previous year. The company experienced a decrease in total members on its platform to 605,000, reflecting market exits, but maintained its strategic growth priorities through investments in technology and clinical programs to enhance value for stakeholders.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.