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Agilon Health (AGL)
NYSE:AGL
US Market

Agilon Health (AGL) AI Stock Analysis

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Agilon Health

(NYSE:AGL)

Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-13.42%Downside)
Agilon Health's overall stock score reflects significant financial and valuation challenges, with ongoing profitability and cash flow issues being the most pressing concerns. Although there are advancements in technology and stable membership, weak technical indicators and a negative earnings outlook weigh heavily on the score. Future improvements in operational efficiency and financial stability are crucial.
Positive Factors
Financial Guidance
AGL raised the low end of its revenue guidance by $25MM to reflect retroactive membership assignment and corresponding revenue recognized in Q1.
Financial Performance
Revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in ahead of expectations despite updates from peers that cast doubt on AGL's business model.
Technological Advancements
AGL has made progress enhancing its platform and technology to drive improved visibility into revenues and claims.
Negative Factors
Persistent Issues
Results included material net negative PYD, which has been a persistent issue for AGL over the past couple of years.
Price Target Reduction
The price target was reduced from $6 to $4.
Uncertainty
There is still difficulty in gauging how improvement efforts will impact full year results, furthered by lack of clarity around risk profile mix in Class of 2025 and 2026 cohorts heading into FY26.

Agilon Health (AGL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Agilon Health Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Descriptionagilon health, inc. offers healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it served approximately 238,000 senior members, which included 186,300 medicare advantage members and 51,700 medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. The company was formerly known as Agilon Health Topco, Inc. and changed its name to agilon health, inc. in March 2021. agilon health, inc. was founded in 2016 and is based in Austin, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyAgilon Health generates revenue primarily through partnerships with physician groups by helping them transition to value-based care models. The company earns money by entering into long-term partnerships where it shares in the savings generated from improved patient outcomes and reduced healthcare costs. Agilon Health provides its partner physician groups with a comprehensive platform that includes technology, data analytics, and management services, which helps these groups manage patient care more efficiently. The company's revenue streams are largely driven by the shared savings and performance-based payments from payers, including Medicare Advantage plans. Significant partnerships with healthcare providers and insurers play a crucial role in its revenue generation strategy.

Agilon Health Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -48.21%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed performance with stable membership and advancements in technology and clinical pathways, but also highlights challenges such as revenue and medical margin declines, along with negative prior period developments. Despite improvements in contracting terms and payer relations, ongoing utilization pressures continue to affect financial outcomes.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Membership Consistency
Q1 membership was 491,000, remaining flat year over year, indicating stability in member retention despite market exits.
Technology and Clinical Advancements
Significant progress in technology and clinical pathways, including AI capabilities, improved data integration, and the launch of heart failure and palliative programs.
Improved Contracting Terms
Enhanced payer contracting terms led to a 280 basis point increase in CMS final rate notice for 2026, indicating better economic terms and reduced exposure to Medicare Part D.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Medical Margin Decline
Revenue for Q1 2025 was $1.53 billion, down from $1.60 billion in Q1 2024, and medical margin was $128 million compared to $157 million in Q1 2024, driven by elevated utilization and negative prior period development.
Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $21 million, a decrease from $29 million in Q1 2024, reflecting cost trends and timing of new market entries.
Negative Prior Period Development
First quarter results included negative prior period development of $22 million, impacting financial performance.
Company Guidance
During the agilon health First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, guidance was provided indicating that the company reported membership, revenue, medical margin, and adjusted EBITDA in line with their Q1 guidance range. Membership was at 491,000, relatively flat year over year, and Medicare Advantage membership guidance for Q2 is between 485,000 to 515,000, with full-year expectations at 490,000 to 520,000. Revenue for Q1 was $1.53 million, with full-year guidance ranging from $5.85 billion to $6.03 billion. Medical margin for Q1 was $128 million, with full-year projections between $275 million and $325 million. Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was $21 million, with full-year guidance between negative $95 million to negative $55 million. The company emphasized continued investment in technology and clinical programs, aiming for cash flow breakeven by 2027, and highlighted a 280 basis points increase in the 2026 CMS final rate notice, which they expect to positively impact future financial performance.

Agilon Health Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Agilon Health faces significant financial challenges with ongoing losses and negative cash flow. Despite strong revenue growth, profitability is lacking, impacting equity and cash positions. Low leverage offers some financial flexibility.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Agilon Health's income statement reveals significant challenges with profitability and growth. The TTM shows a gross profit margin of -0.53%, indicating costs exceed revenues. The net profit margin is -4.04%, reflecting ongoing losses. Revenue growth has been robust historically, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 32% from 2020 to 2025 TTM, yet profitability remains elusive with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins in the TTM.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08 in the TTM suggests low leverage, which is positive. However, the return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses, and the equity ratio has decreased from 66% in 2021 to 26% in the TTM, indicating growing liabilities and reduced equity.
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
The cash flow analysis indicates weak cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to convert income into cash, but free cash flow remains negative and volatile. The free cash flow to net income ratio shows a consistent pattern of cash outflows exceeding net income losses, reflecting ongoing cash challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.99B6.06B4.32B2.71B1.83B1.22B
Gross Profit-31.93M4.84M69.67M112.29M76.41M94.15M
EBITDA-214.40M-218.19M-167.64M-72.41M-383.78M-40.11M
Net Income-241.97M-260.10M-262.60M-106.86M-405.48M-63.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.93B1.73B1.74B1.70B1.59B446.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments367.08M399.97M488.34M908.97M1.04B106.80M
Total Debt42.02M41.50M52.31M43.48M48.40M73.21M
Total Liabilities1.43B1.26B1.08B656.86M494.66M731.09M
Stockholders Equity500.25M470.95M661.84M1.04B1.09B-284.73M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-60.70M-71.03M-187.01M-163.47M-161.59M-55.55M
Operating Cash Flow-41.99M-57.78M-156.20M-130.81M-148.16M-53.20M
Investing Cash Flow65.36M139.89M-44.02M-444.39M-90.51M22.07M
Financing Cash Flow-3.30M-2.58M-193.13M28.06M1.15B24.62M

Agilon Health Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price2.31
Price Trends
50DMA
2.86
Negative
100DMA
3.43
Negative
200DMA
3.07
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.15
Negative
RSI
46.06
Neutral
STOCH
77.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.21, below the 50-day MA of 2.86, and below the 200-day MA of 3.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AGL.

Agilon Health Risk Analysis

Agilon Health disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agilon Health reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Agilon Health Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$1.23B34.105.00%54.81%-45.07%
SESEM
64
Neutral
$1.96B11.3610.38%1.67%-8.86%-36.22%
61
Neutral
$2.81B-10.43%13.54%-30732.00%
60
Neutral
$1.93B10.836.35%5.48%
54
Neutral
€4.82B18.16-49.50%1.84%13.92%-2.48%
50
Neutral
$2.00B-2.47%16.31%79.86%
AGAGL
44
Neutral
$902.41M-42.95%19.18%-6.14%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AGL
Agilon Health
2.31
-3.76
-61.94%
ACHC
Acadia Healthcare
21.90
-45.11
-67.32%
SEM
Select Medical
15.27
-3.61
-19.12%
SGRY
Surgery Partners
21.95
-1.46
-6.24%
ASTH
Astrana Health
24.73
-15.00
-37.75%
LFST
Lifestance Health Group
5.15
0.15
3.00%

Agilon Health Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Agilon Health Elects New Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 30, 2025

On May 28, 2025, Agilon Health held its annual meeting of stockholders where Silvana Battaglia and Sharad Mansukani, M.D. were elected as Class I directors to serve until the 2028 annual meeting. Additionally, stockholders ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 and approved, on a non-binding basis, the executive compensation for the company’s named officers.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGL) stock is a Sell with a $2.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agilon Health stock, see the AGL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Agilon Health Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Negative
May 6, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Agilon Health reported its financial results for the first quarter ending March 31, 2025, with total revenues of $1.53 billion, a 4% decrease from the previous year. The company experienced a decrease in total members on its platform to 605,000, reflecting market exits, but maintained its strategic growth priorities through investments in technology and clinical programs to enhance value for stakeholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025