InnovAge Holding (INNV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.21B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 281.07K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 191.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 12.48%
• EPS Growth: -9.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,350
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 135,699,480
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 308,124
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 281,075
• PEG Ratio: -0.44
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.59
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.78
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.87
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 47.39
• 1Y Price Target: $7.00
• Price Target Upside: 26.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $938.71M

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(53.15% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is held back primarily by weak TTM profitability/returns and an expensive valuation (P/E ~179.8). Offsetting these, the technical trend is strong and the latest earnings call was notably positive with raised FY2026 guidance, improved margins, and a return to profitability, supporting a mid-range overall score.

Positive Factors

Improved Cash Generation

Cash generation has materially improved versus prior years, producing positive TTM operating and free cash flow. Durable cash conversion supports reinvestment in centers, funds de novo ramping, and reduces near-term funding risk while enabling disciplined growth execution.

Margin Turnaround / Adjusted EBITDA Target

Achieving a ~9.2% adjusted EBITDA margin reflects sustained operational improvements: tighter revenue integrity, lower pharmacy costs via insourcing, and standardized center operations. This margin durability supports scalable profitability as enrollment grows and fixed costs are absorbed.

Enrollment and Member-Month Growth

Consistent enrollment and member-month growth increases capitated revenue and spreads center-level fixed costs. Higher census improves unit economics under the PACE model, strengthening revenue predictability and reinforcing the company’s payor-provider integration advantage over the medium term.

Negative Factors

De Novo Center Losses

Ongoing de novo losses create a persistent drag on consolidated results and consume cash and management bandwidth. Because these losses are excluded from adjusted EBITDA, they can mask underlying operating strain and slow capital-efficient scaling of the PACE footprint over the medium term.

TTM Profitability and Returns Weakness

Despite recent quarter profitability, TTM results show a net loss and negative ROE, signaling inconsistent conversion of revenue growth into durable returns. Historical profit volatility limits confidence in sustained earnings power and constrains longer-term value creation absent repeatable margin trends.

Reimbursement and Policy Uncertainty

InnovAge depends on capitated Medicare/Medicaid payments; CMS risk-model and rate changes can materially alter future capitation and risk adjustment. With roughly half of premium Medicare-exposed, policy shifts introduce structural revenue and margin risk over the coming quarters.

InnovAge Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

InnovAge Holding Corp. manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and support to live independently in their homes and communities. It manages its business through Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) approach. The company offers in-home care services consisting of skilled, unskilled, and personal care; in-center services, such as primary care, physical therapy, occupational therapy, speech therapy, dental services, mental health and psychiatric services, meals, and activities; transportation to the PACE center and third-party medical appointments; and care management. It serves approximately 6,850 PACE participants in the United States; and operates 18 PACE centers in Colorado, California, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The company was formerly known as TCO Group Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to InnovAge Holding Corp. in January 2021. InnovAge Holding Corp. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

InnovAge generates revenue primarily through capitated payment models under Medicare and Medicaid, where it receives a fixed monthly payment per enrolled participant to provide all necessary medical services. This model incentivizes the company to deliver efficient, coordinated care to its members, as they benefit financially by effectively managing healthcare costs. Key revenue streams include payments from government programs, member premiums, and additional reimbursements for services provided outside the standard package. Moreover, InnovAge has established partnerships with various healthcare providers and community organizations to expand its service offerings and enhance care delivery, which further contributes to its revenue growth.

InnovAge Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue is growing and TTM cash generation is positive (TTM operating cash flow ~$56.7M; free cash flow ~$46.0M), and leverage looks manageable (debt-to-equity ~0.40). However, profitability and returns remain weak on a TTM basis (net loss ~$23.5M; ROE ~-19.6%) and free cash flow has been volatile historically, tempering the score.

Income Statement

INNV is growing again, with revenue up 3.6% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) following steady annual gains since 2022 (after a small decline in 2023). Profitability, however, remains pressured: TTM shows a net loss of ~$23.5M and negative operating profit, indicating the business has not yet converted revenue growth into sustainable earnings. Gross margin is modest in TTM (~18%), and overall margins remain negative, though losses are narrower than 2023 levels.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears reasonably supported by equity, with TTM debt-to-equity around 0.40 and stockholders’ equity of ~$261M against ~$39M of total debt, suggesting manageable leverage. Total assets are stable (~$527M TTM), but returns remain negative, with TTM return on equity around -19.6%, reflecting ongoing losses and limiting balance-sheet-driven value creation despite acceptable leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved materially versus 2024, with TTM operating cash flow of ~$56.7M and free cash flow of ~$46.0M, indicating positive underlying cash conversion even while net income is negative. That said, free cash flow declined ~15.3% in TTM, and cash flow has been volatile historically (negative operating and free cash flow in 2023–2024), which raises execution risk and reduces confidence in durability.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	912.10M	853.70M	763.86M	688.09M	698.64M	637.80M
Gross Profit	180.80M	584.79M	132.06M	101.29M	135.37M	161.79M
EBITDA	26.20M	3.36M	1.15M	-33.85M	9.21M	-5.89M
Net Income	-4.12M	-30.31M	-21.34M	-40.67M	-6.52M	-43.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	527.48M	557.23M	579.84M	547.66M	562.87M	538.61M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	125.96M	105.92M	102.79M	102.78M	184.45M	203.70M
Total Debt	117.00M	101.08M	113.03M	113.03M	84.81M	82.63M
Total Liabilities	238.72M	294.32M	280.03M	247.85M	209.13M	180.65M
Stockholders Equity	256.79M	234.97M	269.26M	269.26M	332.36M	334.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	45.98M	26.60M	-44.81M	-44.81M	-10.94M	-25.09M
Operating Cash Flow	56.67M	32.87M	-36.90M	-36.90M	27.30M	-7.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.46M	-5.55M	-26.37M	-26.37M	-40.24M	-19.54M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.62M	-19.08M	-7.03M	-7.03M	-6.32M	116.22M

InnovAge Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.55
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INNV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.66, below the 50-day MA of 6.45, and above the 200-day MA of 4.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.37 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for INNV.

InnovAge Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PNTG	72 Outperform	$1.11B	43.74	10.87%	―	29.89%	10.33%
INNV	59 Neutral	$1.21B	191.40	2.56%	―	12.48%	-9.28%
BKD	58 Neutral	$3.65B	-13.55	-214.33%	―	3.93%	-42.22%
SNDA	54 Neutral	$657.50M	-12.30	-44.33%	―	34.99%	-68.73%
AMN	52 Neutral	$788.28M	-8.02	-35.90%	―	-11.42%	-617.31%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CCRN	48 Neutral	$286.32M	-18.49	-3.76%	―	-22.14%	-787.87%

InnovAge Holding Corporate Events

InnovAge Holding Expands Board With Returning Directors

On January 29, 2026, InnovAge Holding Corp. expanded its Board of Directors from nine to eleven members with the appointments of Pavithra Mahesh and Sean Traynor, both returning directors with prior service before and after the company’s IPO. Mahesh, a Principal at Apax Partners with healthcare services and IT investment experience, rejoined as a Class III director and member of the Quality and Compliance Committee, while Traynor, a General Partner in the healthcare group at Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe, returned as a Class I director and member of the Compensation, Nominating and Governance Committee. Their appointments are intended to deepen the Board’s institutional knowledge, reinforce InnovAge’s execution of its PACE-driven growth strategy, and support efforts to strengthen performance and create long-term value for participants, families, regulators, and shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (INNV) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on InnovAge Holding stock, see the INNV Stock Forecast page.

InnovAge Showcases Growth and PACE Platform Progress

On January 12, 2026, InnovAge Holding Corp. hosted an investor webcast in conjunction with the JPM Healthcare Conference, highlighting its progress in scaling a unified payor-provider PACE platform for frail, dual-eligible seniors and emphasizing its integrated clinical and financial accountability model. Management underscored that investments over the past two years in technology, compliance, utilization management, and operating discipline have begun to translate into higher census, strong revenue growth from $171.2 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2023 to $236.1 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, and expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins, positioning the company for responsible, margin-accretive growth, selective geographic expansion, and increased cash generation, with implications for continued value creation for government payors, participants and their families, and investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (INNV) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on InnovAge Holding stock, see the INNV Stock Forecast page.