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InnovAge Holding
(NASDAQ:INNV)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(116.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/30/26
INNV scores in the upper-middle range primarily because operating performance and cash generation have improved and management raised FY2026 guidance with strong Q3 margin/EBITDA momentum. The score is held back by continued GAAP net losses (including litigation-driven G&A volatility), uneven free-cash-flow trend, valuation constraints from negative earnings, and the absence of technical indicator data to confirm market momentum; FY2027 Medicaid rate pressure is an additional risk given the Medicaid-tilting capitation mix.
Positive Factors
Capitated PACE Revenue Model
The PACE capitated model creates stable per-member recurring revenue tied to enrollment and retention, aligning incentives to manage total cost of care. Over 2–6 months this supports predictable cash flows and scalable margins as centers grow and utilization management improves.
Negative Factors
GAAP Net Losses
Persistent GAAP net losses reduce return on equity and leave shareholders exposed if operating improvements stall. Even with better operating cash flow, recurring non‑operating or litigation costs can keep net results negative and constrain long-term capital allocation flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capitated PACE Revenue Model
The PACE capitated model creates stable per-member recurring revenue tied to enrollment and retention, aligning incentives to manage total cost of care. Over 2–6 months this supports predictable cash flows and scalable margins as centers grow and utilization management improves.
Read all positive factors
InnovAge Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Capitation Revenue Breakdown
Analyzes revenue generated from capitation agreements, highlighting the company's ability to manage costs effectively while providing care. This metric indicates financial stability and efficiency in delivering healthcare services under fixed payment models.
Analyzes revenue generated from capitation agreements, highlighting the company's ability to manage costs effectively while providing care. This metric indicates financial stability and efficiency in delivering healthcare services under fixed payment models.
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The Fly
The FlyInnovAge Holding (INNV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.22B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)344.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth14.13%
EPS Growth62.92%
CountryUS
Employees2,440
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.30
Shares Outstanding135,736,390
10 Day Avg. Volume438,138
30 Day Avg. Volume344,039
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.45
Price to Book (P/B)2.13
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio18.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda284.80
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.03B
InnovAge Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
InnovAge Holding Corp. manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and support to live independently in its homes and communities. It manages its business through Program of All-Inclusive Care for the...
How the Company Makes Money
InnovAge primarily makes money by operating PACE programs and receiving capitated (fixed, per-member per-month) payments to provide all covered care to enrolled participants. Revenue is largely driven by (1) capitation payments from government pay...
InnovAge Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful operational and financial momentum: strong revenue growth, material margin expansion, improved adjusted EBITDA, positive operating cash flow, raised FY2026 guidance and active reinvestment in clinical/technology capabilities. Key risks include a wider GAAP net loss driven by litigation-related corporate G&A increases, wage and care cost inflation, ongoing de novo costs, and early signs of Medicaid rate pressure for FY2027 (with modest Medicare rate growth). On balance, the company emphasized durable improvements, disciplined execution and readiness to manage near-term rate headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $251.9M in Q3 FY2026, up 15.5% YoY from $218.1M and up 5.1% QoQ, driven by higher capitation rates and member month growth.
Negative Updates
Widening GAAP Net Loss
Net loss of $29.9M in Q3 FY2026 versus a net loss of $11.1M in Q3 FY2025; loss per share of $0.22 on a fully diluted share base of ~135.7M.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $251.9M in Q3 FY2026, up 15.5% YoY from $218.1M and up 5.1% QoQ, driven by higher capitation rates and member month growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
InnovAge raised its fiscal 2026 guidance to revenue of $950–$975 million and adjusted EBITDA of $85–$90 million, and expects ending census of 7,900–8,100 participants, member months of 92,900–95,700 and de novo losses of $11.5–$13.5 million for the year. Management pointed to Q3 results driving the update: Q3 revenue $251.9M, center‑level contribution margin $61M (24.2% of revenue), adjusted EBITDA $30.5M (12.1% margin), member months 24,060 and ~8,050 participants across 20 centers, with Q3 de novo losses $1.8M. Key balance‑sheet and cash metrics cited were $95.5M cash, $43.1M short‑term investments, $69.4M total debt, $18.1M operating cash flow and $3.6M capex; Q3 net loss was $29.9M (‑$0.22 per share on ~135.7M diluted shares). Management also flagged FY27 assumptions of roughly +1.5–2% Medicare rate growth and early signs of increased Medicaid budget pressure, with more detail to come in September.InnovAge Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 945.90M | 853.70M | 763.86M | 688.09M | 698.64M | 637.80M |
| Gross Profit | 196.25M | 584.79M | 132.06M | 101.29M | 135.37M | 161.79M |
| EBITDA | 4.36M | 3.36M | 1.15M | -33.85M | 9.21M | -5.89M |
| Net Income | -22.20M | -30.31M | -21.34M | -40.67M | -6.52M | -43.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 547.39M | 557.23M | 579.84M | 547.66M | 562.87M | 538.61M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 138.60M | 105.92M | 102.79M | 102.78M | 184.45M | 203.70M |
| Total Debt | 93.85M | 101.08M | 113.03M | 113.03M | 84.81M | 82.63M |
| Total Liabilities | 288.50M | 294.32M | 280.03M | 247.85M | 209.13M | 180.65M |
| Stockholders Equity | 229.03M | 234.97M | 269.26M | 269.26M | 332.36M | 334.56M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 38.87M | 26.60M | -44.81M | -44.81M | -10.94M | -25.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 50.26M | 32.87M | -36.90M | -36.90M | 27.30M | -7.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.12M | -5.55M | -26.37M | -26.37M | -40.24M | -19.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.51M | -19.08M | -7.03M | -7.03M | -6.32M | 116.22M |
InnovAge Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
5.55
Price Trends
8.45
Positive
8.42
Positive
6.92
Positive
Market Momentum
1.08
Negative
84.90
Negative
80.80
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INNV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.71, below the 50-day MA of 8.45, and below the 200-day MA of 6.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 84.90 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for INNV.
InnovAge Holding Risk Analysis
InnovAge Holding disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. InnovAge Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Our business, results of operations, and financial condition are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties. You should carefully consider the following risk factors before making a decision to invest in our common stock. The risks and uncertainties described below are not the only ones we face. Additional risks and uncertainties that we are unaware of, or that we currently believe are not material, may also become important factors that affect us. If any of the following risks occur, our business, financial condition, operating results and prospects could be materially and adversely affected. You should read these risk factors in conjunction with "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in Item 7 and our consolidated financial statements and related notes in Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Q2, 2023
2.
Our operating results may fluctuate significantly in the future, which makes our future operating results difficult to predict and could cause such results to fall below any guidance we provide. Q2, 2023
3.
Our growth strategy may not prove viable, and we may not realize expected results therefrom. Q2, 2023
InnovAge Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.16B | 38.30 | 9.23% | ― | 36.76% | 11.22% | |
62 Neutral | $1.35B | -41.59 | -4.98% | ― | 19.87% | 79.93% | |
59 Neutral | $1.22B | ― | -9.20% | ― | 14.13% | 62.92% | |
59 Neutral | $426.45M | -4.33 | -27.10% | ― | -20.37% | -479.68% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
50 Neutral | $2.00B | -7.06 | -35.37% | ― | 25.25% | -96.16% | |
47 Neutral | $3.79B | -18.13 | 9999.00% | ― | -0.36% | 16.69% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
INNV
InnovAge Holding
12.11
7.94
190.41%
AMN
AMN Healthcare Services
35.77
14.54
68.49%
BKD
Brookdale Senior Living
15.57
8.88
132.74%
SNDA
Sonida Senior Living
41.18
16.49
66.79%
CCRN
Cross Country Healthcare
13.20
0.45
3.53%
PNTG
Pennant Group
39.91
14.06
54.39%
InnovAge Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
InnovAge Reaffirms Fiscal 2026 Guidance in Investor Presentation
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 18, 2026, InnovAge Holding Corp. posted an investor presentation on its website, intended for use in meetings with investors, analysts and other stakeholders. The company previously issued results for the third fiscal quarter ended March 31...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
InnovAge Appoints Jennifer Browne as President and COO
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, InnovAge Holding Corp. announced the appointment of Jennifer Browne as President and Chief Operating Officer, effective June 8, 2026, bringing her experience in leading multi-state, value-based healthcare organizations. Browne, pr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.