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InnovAge Holding (INNV)
NASDAQ:INNV
US Market

InnovAge Holding (INNV) AI Stock Analysis

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InnovAge Holding

(NASDAQ:INNV)

41Neutral
InnovAge Holding faces significant financial challenges with consistent net losses and negative cash flow. The neutral technical analysis indicates limited trading momentum, and the poor valuation metrics reflect difficulty in justifying the current stock price. Despite some revenue and operational improvements, the financial struggles dominate the overall assessment.

InnovAge Holding (INNV) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

InnovAge Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionInnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) is a company primarily engaged in providing comprehensive healthcare services for the elderly population. The company operates within the healthcare sector, focusing on the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE), which is a Medicare and Medicaid program that helps individuals meet their healthcare needs in the community rather than going to a nursing home or other care facility. InnovAge's core services include medical care, dentistry, transportation, home care, and social activities, aimed at enhancing the quality of life for seniors.
How the Company Makes MoneyInnovAge Holding makes money through capitated payments from Medicare and Medicaid for each enrolled participant in its PACE program. This means they receive a fixed amount of money per participant per month, regardless of the amount of services the participant utilizes. Additionally, the company may receive revenue from private pay participants who are not eligible for Medicare or Medicaid. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by their ability to efficiently manage the cost of care while maintaining high-quality services that meet regulatory standards. Partnerships with state Medicaid agencies and healthcare providers also play a crucial role in facilitating service delivery and optimizing operational efficiencies.

InnovAge Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary
InnovAge Holding is struggling with profitability and cash flow management despite some revenue growth. The company faces significant challenges in turning around its financial performance, with negative margins and cash flow indicating operational inefficiencies.
Income Statement
35
Negative
InnovAge Holding shows a concerning trend with consistent net losses and declining margins. The TTM data indicates a negative EBIT and EBITDA margin, suggesting challenges in cost management and profitability. Although there is revenue growth from the prior year, the growth is not translating into profitability improvements.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The company has a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating manageable leverage. However, the negative return on equity highlights the lack of profitability. The equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting some financial stability with a decent portion of assets financed by equity.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Free cash flow remains negative, indicating liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive for the TTM, showing some ability to generate cash despite negative net income. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate is a concern, reflecting ongoing cash management issues.
Breakdown
Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
763.86M688.09M698.64M637.80M567.19M
Gross Profit
132.06M101.29M135.37M174.08M141.30M
EBIT
-23.18M-49.40M-4.71M-3.70M50.93M
EBITDA
1.15M-29.25M9.21M-5.89M61.54M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-21.34M-40.67M-7.96M-44.74M26.28M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
102.78M173.46M184.43M201.47M112.90M
Total Assets
547.66M567.36M555.60M531.75M409.63M
Total Debt
113.03M108.83M84.81M82.63M217.96M
Net Debt
56.09M-18.42M-99.62M-118.83M105.05M
Total Liabilities
247.85M252.56M201.85M173.79M301.88M
Stockholders Equity
269.26M296.30M332.36M335.15M101.02M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-44.81M-3.12M-10.94M-27.09M31.98M
Operating Cash Flow
-36.90M20.24M27.30M-7.55M43.83M
Investing Cash Flow
-26.37M-69.52M-40.24M-19.54M-11.69M
Financing Cash Flow
-7.03M-7.90M-6.32M116.22M21.23M

InnovAge Holding Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price3.15
Price Trends
50DMA
3.09
Positive
100DMA
3.46
Negative
200DMA
4.64
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
56.10
Neutral
STOCH
61.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INNV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.90, above the 50-day MA of 3.09, and below the 200-day MA of 4.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for INNV.

InnovAge Holding Risk Analysis

InnovAge Holding disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. InnovAge Holding reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

InnovAge Holding Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$7.61B24.8617.66%0.18%16.80%39.99%
BKBKD
57
Neutral
$1.54B-65.55%3.95%-5.53%
55
Neutral
$446.21M-3.26%-33.46%-121.07%
52
Neutral
$5.35B3.96-42.60%2.86%17.58%1.27%
51
Neutral
$455.50M-17.38%19.19%
CYCYH
46
Neutral
$347.95M39.18%1.05%-288.07%
41
Neutral
$426.02M-9.64%11.91%18.44%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
INNV
InnovAge Holding
3.15
-1.17
-27.08%
BKD
Brookdale Senior Living
6.58
-0.72
-9.86%
SNDA
Sonida Senior Living
24.08
-8.31
-25.66%
CYH
Community Health
2.83
-0.55
-16.27%
CCRN
Cross Country Healthcare
13.61
-2.41
-15.04%
ENSG
The Ensign Group
132.32
16.49
14.24%

InnovAge Holding Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -14.63%|
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive revenue and census growth, operational improvements, and strategic expansions, tempered by significant net losses, one-time financial setbacks, and challenges in enrollment processing. The company showed resilience and proactive strategies to counteract industry challenges, but financial metrics highlight ongoing difficulties.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Reported revenue of $209 million for the quarter, a 10.6% increase compared to $188.9 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, driven by growth in existing centers and new de novo centers.
Census Growth
Census grew to 7,480 participants, reflecting a 10.3% year-over-year increase and a 3.7% sequential increase.
Medicaid Rate Increases
Received calendar year Medicaid rate increases in California and Pennsylvania in the mid to high single digits for 2025.
Operational Improvements
Continued progress in medical cost management and operational efficiency, contributing to a 17.7% center level contribution margin, a 7% sequential improvement.
Expansion and Acquisition
Eclipsed 100 participants in the Crenshaw center, showing successful scaling of smaller PACE organizations. Acquired a pharmacy in Denver to enhance compliance and reduce costs.
Negative Updates
Net Loss
Reported a net loss of $13.5 million, compared to a net loss of $3.8 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2024.
One-time Adjustments
Recorded an impairment of right of use asset and construction in progress of approximately $8.5 million related to halting development on a de novo Center in Louisville, Kentucky.
Enrollment and Redetermination Delays
State-driven enrollment processing delays in California, affecting accounts receivable and resulting in write-offs.
Challenges in Medicare Advantage Environment
Faced challenges related to Medicare Advantage cash value cards impacting sales cycle, though proactive marketing helped mitigate some impact.
Company Guidance
During the InnovAge Fiscal Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting total revenue between $815 million and $865 million and adjusted EBITDA between $24 million and $31 million. The company reported a revenue increase of 10.6% year-over-year to $209 million, driven by a 10.3% growth in member months. Center level contribution margin was $37.1 million, representing a 17.7% margin. InnovAge experienced a net loss of $13.5 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $5.9 million. The census grew to 7,480 participants, and the company anticipates ending fiscal year 2025 with a census between 7,300 and 7,750. The call highlighted Medicaid rate increases in California and Pennsylvania and discussed ongoing clinical and operational initiatives aimed at margin improvement and sustainable growth.

InnovAge Holding Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
InnovAge Holding Strengthens Leadership with Key Appointments
Positive
Nov 4, 2024

InnovAge Holding Corp. has appointed Michael Scarbrough as its new President and Chief Operating Officer, effective November 4, 2024, succeeding Christine Bent, who will now serve as a Senior Advisor. Scarbrough, with over 30 years of experience in healthcare, will focus on enhancing InnovAge’s strategic priorities, leveraging his extensive operational expertise. Additionally, Maria Lozzano has been promoted to President of Pharmacy Services, further strengthening the leadership team as InnovAge continues to evolve its healthcare service offerings for seniors.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.