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P3 Health Partners (PIII)
NASDAQ:PIII
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P3 Health Partners
(NASDAQ:PIII)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(0.00%Upside)
Positive Factors
Operational Improvements
PIII is ahead of schedule with respect to the previously announced ~$130M of adjusted EBITDA improvements.
Profit Outlook
Initiatives the management team is implementing, especially with its stronger focus on exiting unprofitable markets and reworking risk-based contracts, lead to a more favorable profit outlook and lower cash burn.
Valuation
The analyst reiterates an Outperform rating and continues to believe P3 shares are undervalued at approximately 0.1 times 2026 sales.
Negative Factors
Cash Position
There is worry about PIII's tight cash position and the company's persistent struggle to improve earnings.
Earnings Performance
Results this quarter were again disappointing, evidenced by a significant miss in adjusted EBITDA, and medical expenses remain a headwind.
Utilization and Costs Visibility
Visibility into utilization and costs is low, and PIII has missed consensus estimates for EBITDA in all of the last 7 quarters.
P3 Health Partners (PIII) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$48.80M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth9.79%
EPS Growth-47.01%
CountryUS
Employees360
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength41
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.28
Shares Outstanding3,268,093
10 Day Avg. Volume4,879
30 Day Avg. Volume8,132
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-0.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-2.72
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.00Price Target Upside115.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
P3 Health Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionP3 Health Partners (PIII) is a healthcare provider that operates within the managed care sector. The company focuses on delivering value-based care, primarily through partnerships with healthcare providers to offer coordinated and patient-centered care services. P3 Health Partners aims to improve patient outcomes and reduce healthcare costs by emphasizing preventive care and chronic disease management.
How the Company Makes MoneyP3 Health Partners makes money through a value-based care model, where it receives payments from health plans and insurance providers for managing the healthcare needs of their members. This model incentivizes the company to focus on improving patient health outcomes and reducing costs. Revenue streams include capitation payments, where P3 receives a fixed amount per patient enrolled under their care, and performance-based incentives tied to the quality and efficiency of the healthcare services provided. Significant partnerships with healthcare providers and insurance companies contribute to its earnings, aligning financial success with patient health outcomes.
P3 Health Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -21.69%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a positive trajectory for P3 Health Partners with significant improvements in strategic initiatives, clinical performance, and operational metrics. However, challenges remain with declining revenue and membership and the impact of one underperforming payer contract.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Initiatives and Operating Improvements
P3 Health Partners is executing programmatic initiatives ahead of schedule, achieving a $130 million improvement in adjusted EBITDA, with a $20 million improvement in operating efficiency year-over-year and a decrease in operating expenses by 11% year-over-year.
Positive Clinical and Operational Trends
Utilization metrics for acute admissions, emergency department usage, and post-acute care admissions have improved, with a 21% decrease in emergency department usage and a 22% decrease in SNF admissions.
ACO REACH Membership Growth
ACO REACH membership increased by 60% year-over-year, contributing $8 million of EBITDA, reflecting profitability and strong operational performance.
Improved Financial Metrics
The company saw an 8% increase in per member per month funding and a 30% improvement in Part C quality measures.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Membership Decline
Total revenue decreased by 4% year-over-year to $373 million, and Q1 membership decreased by 8% year-over-year due to strategic exits from unprofitable plans.
Single Payer Underperformance
A single underperforming contract led to a loss of $22 million in adjusted EBITDA, primarily due to a $23 million impact from prior year claims.
Company Guidance
During the P3 Health Partners First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, guidance for 2025 was reiterated with several key metrics highlighted. Three out of four markets reached breakeven or better in Q1, with an expectation for sequential growth throughout the year. Notably, per member per month (PMPM) funding increased by 8%, reflecting improved disease burden capture. The company achieved a $20 million year-over-year improvement in operating efficiency, with operating expenses declining 18% sequentially and 11% year-over-year. Contracting efforts are ahead of schedule, contributing $35 million in incremental EBITDA improvements. Additionally, medical expense management initiatives are expected to deliver over $30 million in savings for 2025. Quality performance showed a nearly 30% improvement in Part C measures. Total revenue for Q1 was $373 million, a 4% decrease from the prior year, with membership down 8% year-over-year. Despite these challenges, P3 Health Partners remains confident in meeting full-year targets, supported by positive trends in clinical initiatives and strategic partnerships.P3 Health Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
P3 Health Partners shows revenue growth but struggles with profitability and financial stability. High leverage and negative margins are significant risks, necessitating improvements in operational efficiency and debt reduction.Income Statement
P3 Health Partners has shown a notable revenue growth from the previous year, with a 18.48% increase in 2024. Despite this, the company struggles with profitability, evidenced by negative gross profit margins and a significant net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating challenges in covering operational costs and interest expenses.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio standing at 1.01, indicating potential risk in financial stability. The equity ratio is low at 9.69%, suggesting limited buffer against liabilities. Return on equity is highly negative, reflecting the net losses impacting shareholder value.35
Negative
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals negative free cash flow, indicating challenges in generating cash from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in converting profits into cash. However, there's a positive cash inflow from financing activities which may provide temporary relief.30
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 1.49B | 1.50B | 1.27B | 1.05B | 491.06B | 485.54M | Gross Profit |
| -21.97M | -144.97M | 31.64M | -95.01M | 490.40B | 243.70K | EBIT |
| -276.83M | -312.60M | -167.86M | -1.56B | -31.41B | -35.12M | EBITDA |
| -206.87M | -197.76M | -81.07M | -1.46B | -184.61M | -28.08M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -159.25M | -135.85M | -57.77M | -270.13M | -10.08M | -31.41M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 32.30M | 38.82M | 36.32M | 17.54M | 140.48M | 36.26M | Total Assets |
| 855.92M | 783.42M | 860.97M | 876.57M | 2.36B | 99.90M | Total Debt |
| 132.51M | 166.16M | 121.94M | 105.94M | 89.92M | 49.11M | Net Debt |
| 100.20M | 127.35M | 85.62M | 88.40M | -50.56M | 12.85M | Total Liabilities |
| 470.49M | 633.89M | 427.31M | 353.91M | 299.94M | 145.96M | Stockholders Equity |
| 146.60M | 75.94M | 142.13M | 5.85M | 273.55M | -27.87M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -123.56M | -110.13M | -77.86M | -128.25K | -69.88M | -27.52M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -123.56M | -110.13M | -76.03M | -126.02K | -66.47M | -24.60M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 14.53M | 14.53M | -1.83M | -7.73K | -56.07M | -3.17M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 118.03M | 98.77M | 100.33M | 11.38K | 223.47M | 34.76M |
P3 Health Partners Technical Analysis
Negative
6.50
Price Trends
8.36
Negative
9.04
Negative
13.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.53
Positive
26.23
Positive
0.64
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PIII, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.66, below the 50-day MA of 8.36, and below the 200-day MA of 13.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.23 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PIII.
P3 Health Partners Risk Analysis
P3 Health Partners disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. P3 Health Partners reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Our failure to meet the continued listing requirements of The Nasdaq Capital Market could result in a delisting of our securities. Q3, 2024
P3 Health Partners Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $272.15M | ― | -21.30% | ― | -12.96% | -1199.26% | |
59 Neutral | $552.81M | ― | 39.18% | ― | 1.05% | -288.07% | |
55 Neutral | $548.15M | ― | -12.03% | ― | 12.19% | -1.59% | |
54 Neutral | $5.28B | 3.29 | -45.38% | 2.80% | 16.77% | -0.08% | |
51 Neutral | $285.42M | ― | -227.77% | ― | 17.64% | 13.86% | |
46 Neutral | $31.58M | ― | -951.52% | ― | -0.70% | -2.38% | |
43 Neutral | $48.80M | ― | -131.17% | ― | 9.79% | -47.01% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
PIII
P3 Health Partners
6.48
-20.82
-76.26%
CYH
Community Health
3.80
-0.05
-1.30%
MODV
ModivCare
4.16
-22.59
-84.45%
TOI
Oncology Institute, Inc.
2.79
2.34
520.00%
INNV
InnovAge Holding
3.97
-0.86
-17.81%
AIRS
Airsculpt Technologies
4.59
0.28
6.50%
P3 Health Partners Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
P3 Health Partners Secures $70M Financing Deal
Positive
Jun 3, 2025
On May 29, 2025, P3 Health Group, a subsidiary of P3 Health Partners Inc., entered into a financing transaction with VBC Growth SPV 5, LLC. This transaction involves an unsecured promissory note and warrants to purchase shares of the company’s Class A Common Stock. The promissory note, approved by independent directors, allows P3 LLC to access up to $70 million in funding, which will be used to support ongoing working capital needs. The agreement includes specific terms for interest payments and prepayment options, with a maturity date set for August 13, 2028. Additionally, a warrant agreement was established, allowing VBC 5 to purchase shares contingent upon stockholder approval, with the warrants expiring in 2032. This financing arrangement is expected to bolster P3 Health Partners’ financial position and support its operational objectives.
The most recent analyst rating on (PIII) stock is a Buy with a $225.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on P3 Health Partners stock, see the PIII Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.