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P3 Health Partners (PIII)
NASDAQ:PIII
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P3 Health Partners (PIII) AI Stock Analysis

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PIII

P3 Health Partners

(NASDAQ:PIII)

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Underperform 38 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:38Underperform
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-7.41% Downside)
P3 Health Partners faces significant financial challenges, with high leverage and negative profitability metrics. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and the valuation is unattractive due to ongoing losses. While the earnings call provided some positive insights, the financial risks remain predominant.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The increase in capitated revenue indicates effective clinical programs and utilization management, supporting long-term revenue growth.
Operational Improvements
Significant EBITDA improvement suggests successful operational strategies, enhancing long-term financial performance.
Strategic Joint Venture
The joint venture expands member base, potentially boosting profitability and cash flow, strengthening market position.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing EBITDA losses highlight persistent profitability issues, which could hinder long-term financial stability.
High Leverage
High leverage indicates financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth.
Negative Cash Flow
Negative cash flow suggests operational inefficiencies, which could strain resources and affect long-term sustainability.

P3 Health Partners (PIII) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

P3 Health Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionP3 Health Partners (PIII) is a healthcare organization focused on providing value-based care solutions and enhancing patient outcomes through innovative healthcare management. Operating primarily in the healthcare sector, PIII partners with Medicare Advantage plans and other payers to deliver comprehensive care management services. The company's core offerings include population health management, care coordination, and analytics-driven solutions designed to improve care delivery and reduce overall healthcare costs for patients and providers alike.
How the Company Makes MoneyP3 Health Partners generates revenue primarily through capitation payments and performance-based incentives from Medicare Advantage plans and other payers. Under the capitation model, PIII receives a fixed amount per enrolled member to provide a range of healthcare services, allowing the company to manage costs effectively while focusing on preventive care and patient management. Additionally, P3 may earn bonuses for meeting specific quality metrics and improving patient outcomes, which further contributes to its revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and payers enhance its service offerings and market reach, playing a significant role in its financial success.

P3 Health Partners Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 13, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted several positive developments, including increased capitated revenue, successful operational improvements, strategic ventures, and reduced operating expenses. However, these are counterbalanced by significant adjusted EBITDA losses and revised financial guidance, indicating ongoing financial challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Capitated Revenue Increase
Capitated revenue increased by roughly 6%, demonstrating the impact of clinical programs and utilization management efforts.
Operational Improvement Plan Success
Achieved over $100 million in EBITDA improvement year-over-year due to the embedded operational improvement plan.
Strategic Joint Venture
Moving forward with a joint venture that will add approximately 13,000 fully accretive ACO members, improving profitability and cash flow.
Provider Network Optimization
Rationalizing provider network to improve margin performance by exiting non-aligned groups and focusing on those where the Care Enablement Model delivers strong outcomes.
Tier 1 Provider Performance
Tier 1 providers performed 17.4% higher in closures compared to non-Tier 1 providers, demonstrating stronger documentation accuracy and quality performance.
Medical Margin Improvement
Medical margin for the quarter was $4.4 million or $13 PMPM compared to $500,000 or $1 PMPM in the prior period, indicating improvement.
Operating Expense Reduction
Operating expense for the quarter was reduced by $10.4 million or 33% compared to the prior year period.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Loss
Adjusted EBITDA loss for the quarter was $45.9 million, with a year-to-date adjusted EBITDA loss of $85.2 million.
Revised EBITDA Guidance
Revised full year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of minus $110 million to minus $95 million, reflecting current expectations.
Unfavorable Settlement Impact
The quarter reflects the recognition of unfavorable midyear settlement with a $24 million negative impact.
Company Guidance
During P3 Health's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance on its financial performance and strategic initiatives. The call highlighted a 6% increase in capitated revenue and a significant $100 million year-over-year improvement in EBITDA, despite an adjusted EBITDA loss of $45.9 million for the quarter. P3 Health reported a normalized adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately $70 million year-to-date and revised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of minus $110 million to minus $95 million. The company is focusing on operational improvements, including a strategic joint venture to add 13,000 fully accretive ACO members and a pipeline of 25,000 Medicare Advantage lives for 2026. Medical margin for the quarter was reported at $4.4 million, or $13 PMPM, while operating expenses improved by $10.4 million, or 33%, compared to the previous year. The company is executing on an EBITDA expansion opportunity of $120 million to $170 million over the next five quarters, driven by factors such as improved provider alignment and clinical program scaling, with expectations for meaningful profitability in 2026.

P3 Health Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary
P3 Health Partners is experiencing revenue growth but struggles with profitability and financial stability. High leverage and negative margins pose significant risks, and the company needs to focus on improving operational efficiency and reducing debt to strengthen its financial position.
Income Statement
40
Negative
P3 Health Partners has shown a notable revenue growth from the previous year, with a 18.48% increase in 2024. Despite this, the company struggles with profitability, evidenced by negative gross profit margins and a significant net loss. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, indicating challenges in covering operational costs and interest expenses.
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio standing at 1.01, indicating potential risk in financial stability. The equity ratio is low at 9.69%, suggesting limited buffer against liabilities. Return on equity is highly negative, reflecting the net losses impacting shareholder value.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
The cash flow statement reveals negative free cash flow, indicating challenges in generating cash from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in converting profits into cash. However, there's a positive cash inflow from financing activities which may provide temporary relief.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.44B1.50B1.27B1.05B637.36M491.06M
Gross Profit696.16M1.50B1.27B1.05B-30.70M491.06M
EBITDA-147.95M-197.76M-81.07M-1.46B-184.61M-28.08M
Net Income-131.05M-135.85M-57.77M-270.13M-156.48M-31.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets683.56M783.42M860.97M876.74M2.36B106.44M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments37.71M38.82M36.32M18.46M140.48M36.26M
Total Debt50.66M166.16M124.64M107.54M92.02M51.29M
Total Liabilities664.64M633.89M427.31M354.08M299.94M236.65M
Stockholders Equity-18.69M75.94M142.13M5.85M273.55M-130.22M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-122.87M-110.13M-77.86M-128.25M-69.88M-27.52M
Operating Cash Flow-122.75M-110.13M-76.03M-126.02M-66.47M-24.60M
Investing Cash Flow-544.00K14.53M-1.83M-7.73M-56.07M-3.17M
Financing Cash Flow93.66M98.77M100.33M11.38M223.47M34.76M

P3 Health Partners Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price5.94
Price Trends
50DMA
8.32
Negative
100DMA
7.82
Negative
200DMA
8.09
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.75
Positive
RSI
28.73
Positive
STOCH
9.08
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PIII, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.46, below the 50-day MA of 8.32, and below the 200-day MA of 8.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.73 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.08 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PIII.

P3 Health Partners Risk Analysis

P3 Health Partners disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. P3 Health Partners reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

P3 Health Partners Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$927.11M35.4310.87%29.89%10.33%
57
Neutral
$656.49M-21.62-6.86%12.48%-9.28%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
47
Neutral
$299.08M-3407.86%21.67%16.74%
45
Neutral
$99.77M-17.32%-47.03%-274.41%
41
Neutral
$265.83M-73.31%5.21%5.21%
38
Underperform
$60.81M-0.17-257.39%-2.15%-6.72%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PIII
P3 Health Partners
5.94
-5.88
-49.75%
PNTG
Pennant Group
26.80
-4.59
-14.62%
TOI
Oncology Institute
3.04
2.87
1688.24%
DCGO
DocGo
1.02
-3.36
-76.71%
INNV
InnovAge Holding
5.32
0.52
10.83%
AGL
Agilon Health
0.64
-1.47
-69.67%

P3 Health Partners Corporate Events

P3 Health Partners Earnings Call Reveals Growth Amid Challenges
Nov 16, 2025

P3 Health Partners Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a mix of positive developments and ongoing financial challenges. The company reported increased capitated revenue, successful operational improvements, strategic ventures, and reduced operating expenses. However, these achievements were tempered by significant adjusted EBITDA losses and revised financial guidance, indicating that financial hurdles remain.

P3 Health Partners Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Nov 15, 2025

P3 Health Partners Inc. is a patient-centered and physician-led population health management company that focuses on improving healthcare outcomes through value-based care coordination and administrative services. The company operates in the healthcare sector, managing the care of thousands of patients across four states in the United States.

Business Operations and Strategy
P3 Health Partners Forms New MSO with Commonwealth
Positive
Nov 14, 2025

On November 11, 2025, P3 Health Partners REACH ACO, LLC entered into an agreement with Commonwealth Primary Care ACO, LLC to form P3 Commonwealth Innovation MSO, LLC. This new entity will manage and coordinate activities for ACOs, focusing on shared services, financial management, and clinical integration. The MSO will receive management fees and a portion of net shared savings from the ACOs, with P3 ACO holding an 80% membership interest. The formation of this MSO is expected to enhance the operational efficiency and quality of care provided by the involved ACOs.

The most recent analyst rating on (PIII) stock is a Sell with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on P3 Health Partners stock, see the PIII Stock Forecast page.

P3 Health Partners Earnings Call: Challenges and Progress
Sep 1, 2025

P3 Health Partners Inc. Earnings Call: Navigating Challenges and Progress

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
P3 Health Partners Extends Term Loan Agreement
Neutral
Aug 29, 2025

On August 27, 2025, P3 Health Group, LLC, a subsidiary of P3 Health Partners Inc., entered into the Tenth Amendment to its Term Loan Agreement originally dated November 19, 2020. The amendment extends the interest-only period to September 30, 2026, and the maturity date to December 31, 2027, while adjusting the principal payments and interest rates. These changes aim to provide financial flexibility and stability for the company, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (PIII) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on P3 Health Partners stock, see the PIII Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 22, 2025