P3 Health Partners (PIII)
NASDAQ:PIII
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P3 Health Partners
(NASDAQ:PIII)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(300.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (negative equity and continued cash burn). Offsetting this are improved operating momentum and raised EBITDA guidance from the earnings call, plus strong technical strength (though overbought). Valuation appears low based on P/E, but lacks dividend support and is tempered by profitability/cash-flow risk.
Positive Factors
Adjusted EBITDA turnaround & guidance
A clear swing to positive adjusted EBITDA with a materially raised 2026 guidance signals improving underlying unit economics and operating leverage. If sustained, higher recurring EBITDA improves cash generation, reduces reliance on emergency financing, and supports reinvestment in delegated care capabilities over the next 2–3 years.
Negative Factors
Negative stockholders' equity
A negative equity position elevates solvency and refinancing risk, constraining access to unsecured capital and increasing dependence on creditor or preferred financings. This structural balance‑sheet weakness can force dilutive or restrictive capital actions and limit strategic options over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Adjusted EBITDA turnaround & guidance
A clear swing to positive adjusted EBITDA with a materially raised 2026 guidance signals improving underlying unit economics and operating leverage. If sustained, higher recurring EBITDA improves cash generation, reduces reliance on emergency financing, and supports reinvestment in delegated care capabilities over the next 2–3 years.
Read all positive factors
P3 Health Partners (PIII) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$115.41M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.40K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.14
Revenue Growth-0.87%
EPS Growth10.51%
CountryUS
Employees360
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-38.55
Shares Outstanding3,325,858
10 Day Avg. Volume4,406
30 Day Avg. Volume7,400
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)-0.07
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00782
P/FCF Ratio-0.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.00Price Target Upside300.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-8.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.52B
P3 Health Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
P3 Health Partners Inc., a patient-centered and physician-led population health management company, provides superior care services in the United States. It operates clinics and wellness centers. The company is based in Henderson, Nevada....
How the Company Makes Money
P3 Health Partners generates revenue primarily through value-based care arrangements tied to Medicare Advantage and other risk-based contracts. Under these models, P3 (directly or through affiliated entities) is paid to manage the medical care of ...
P3 Health Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a materially improved operating trajectory with a clear shift to positive adjusted EBITDA, stronger Medicare Advantage funding (~15% YoY), deeper provider alignment (Tier 1 up to 62%) and disciplined cost management producing a flat MA medical trend versus industry inflation. These operational and contractual wins supported a raised outlook and meaningful capital structure actions that improve equity compliance. Counterbalancing these positives were a roughly 10% decline in at-risk membership (by design), limited cash ($25M), reliance on $17M of favorable prior-year development (underlying adjusted EBITDA ~$8M), a relatively high adjusted medical loss ratio (~85.2%), and continued execution risk tied to achieving broader delegation and managing claims development. On balance, the quarter demonstrates improving fundamentals and credible progress, while still requiring execution on multi-year delegation and capital stability initiatives.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Turnaround
Delivered $26 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, exceeding internal expectations and improving from a loss of $22 million in Q1 2025, demonstrating a substantial swing to positive operating performance.
Negative Updates
Decline in At-Risk Membership
At-risk membership declined to ~106,000 at the end of Q1 2026 from 118,000 in Q1 2025 (≈10% decline), driven by deliberate exits of arrangements that did not meet economic thresholds, reducing scale in the near term.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Turnaround
Delivered $26 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, exceeding internal expectations and improving from a loss of $22 million in Q1 2025, demonstrating a substantial swing to positive operating performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $20–$60 million (midpoint $40M) after a strong Q1 that delivered $26M of adjusted EBITDA ($8M underlying excluding ~$17M of favorable prior‑year development and payer settlements, ~65/35 split), revenue of $386M, medical claims expense of $306M, medical margin of $74M and adjusted operating expense of $25M. At‑risk membership was ~106,000 (vs. 118,000 in Q1‑2025) plus ~29,000 lives under management for ~135,000 total, MA funding per member improved ~15% YoY, delegated functions expanded to ~63% of membership, Nebraska added ~28,600 lives, cash was $25M, and a ~$250M debt→preferred conversion (plus up to $70M preferred issuance, $30M issued to date) materially strengthened equity; Q1 MA medical cost trend was roughly flat to the 2025 baseline (2025 full‑year MA/ACO trend <2%), and the guidance range reflects normal claims development and cost‑trend variability.P3 Health Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
16
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.47B | 1.46B | 1.50B | 1.27B | 1.05B | 637.36M |
| Gross Profit | 745.36M | -144.32M | 1.50B | 1.27B | 1.05B | -30.70M |
| EBITDA | -139.16M | -186.14M | -197.76M | -81.07M | -1.46B | -184.61M |
| Net Income | -126.25M | -147.95M | -135.85M | -57.77M | -270.13M | -156.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 674.16M | 656.64M | 783.42M | 860.97M | 876.74M | 2.36B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.50M | 25.01M | 38.82M | 36.32M | 18.46M | 140.48M |
| Total Debt | 62.27M | 287.29M | 166.16M | 124.64M | 107.54M | 92.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 807.32M | 796.88M | 633.89M | 427.31M | 354.08M | 299.94M |
| Stockholders Equity | -143.55M | -155.23M | 75.94M | 142.13M | 5.85M | 273.55M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -85.16M | -91.16M | -110.13M | -77.86M | -128.25M | -69.88M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -85.24M | -91.24M | -110.13M | -76.03M | -126.02M | -66.47M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 86.00K | 129.00K | 14.53M | -1.83M | -7.73M | -56.07M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 69.96M | 72.81M | 98.77M | 100.33M | 11.38M | 223.47M |
P3 Health Partners Technical Analysis
Positive
3.50
Price Trends
4.63
Positive
3.59
Positive
5.43
Positive
Market Momentum
3.20
Negative
80.88
Negative
93.28
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PIII, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.48, below the 50-day MA of 4.63, and below the 200-day MA of 5.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.88 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PIII.
P3 Health Partners Risk Analysis
P3 Health Partners disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. P3 Health Partners reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
P3 Health Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.18B | 39.35 | 9.23% | ― | 36.76% | 11.22% | |
59 Neutral | $115.41M | -0.43 | 184.97% | ― | -0.87% | 10.51% | |
56 Neutral | $1.51B | -4.02 | -146.01% | ― | -2.82% | -45.70% | |
55 Neutral | $1.01B | -45.90 | -9.20% | ― | 14.13% | 62.92% | |
54 Neutral | $460.92M | -110.19 | 326.77% | ― | 35.37% | 46.10% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
44 Neutral | $62.50M | -0.35 | -88.97% | ― | -42.03% | -28904.55% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
PIII
P3 Health Partners
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9.08
122.87%
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P3 Health Partners Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
P3 Health Partners Regains Full Nasdaq Listing Compliance
Positive
May 26, 2026
On November 28, 2025, P3 Health Partners Inc. disclosed that it had received a deficiency notice from Nasdaq, stating the company did not meet at least one of the continued listing standards related to minimum stockholders’ equity, market va...
Delistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
P3 Health Partners Executes Debt Exchange to Bolster Equity
Positive
May 15, 2026
P3 Health Partners Inc., a value-based healthcare services provider focused on managed care for senior and other health plan populations, operates through P3 Health Group, LLC and other subsidiaries to deliver coordinated clinical services under r...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
P3 Health Partners Restructures Debt and Raises New Capital
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 27, 2026, P3 Health Partners Inc. and its subsidiary P3 Health Group, LLC entered into a Debt Exchange Agreement with affiliates of Chicago Pacific Founders, converting approximately $252.5 million of outstanding promissory notes into mul...
Business Operations and Strategy
P3 Health Partners Signs Long-Term Medicare Advantage Insurer Deal
Positive
Mar 25, 2026
On March 19, 2026, P3 Health Partners entered into a long-term Statement of Work and related Master Services Agreement with a large nonprofit health insurer in Nebraska to support primary care providers in the insurer’s Medicare Advantage ne...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.