ModivCare (MODV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $46.65M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.93
• Revenue Growth: -0.70%
• EPS Growth: -2.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,675
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 39
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -1.71
• Shares Outstanding: 14,353,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,165,437
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,579,064
• PEG Ratio: 6.48
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -29.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 48.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 39.66
• 1Y Price Target: $1.15
• Price Target Upside: -64.62% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▼(-7.69%Downside)

ModivCare faces significant financial challenges, including negative cash flows and high leverage, which heavily weigh down the overall score. The potential growth from new contracts and digital advancements is overshadowed by the risk of Nasdaq delisting and unattractive valuation metrics. The technical indicators provide some short-term optimism, but the long-term outlook remains concerning.

Positive Factors

Contract Strategy

The company is shifting shared risk contracts to fee-for-service agreements, which should provide quicker collections and improved cash flow visibility.

Financing

ModivCare has secured $75 million in incremental financing and an additional $30 million capital commitment, indicating a strong influx of capital.

Leadership and Strategy

The appointment of a Chief Transformation Officer is expected to focus on asset divestitures, which could unlock significant value for ModivCare.

Negative Factors

Debt and Leverage

ModivCare's total debt stands at $1.36 billion, highlighting a high level of leverage.

Financial Performance

Q1 cash flows were shockingly poor at around -$82.1 million, indicating significant financial challenges.

Revenue Impact

Two significant contracts were lost, which represented around $200 million of annual revenues, impacting the company's core earnings power.

ModivCare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ModivCare Inc. (MODV) is a leading provider of non-emergency medical transportation (NEMT) services, digital health, and personal care services. The company operates primarily in the healthcare sector, focusing on addressing social determinants of health to improve access to care for underserved populations. ModivCare offers transportation services to patients who need assistance getting to medical appointments, thereby facilitating access to necessary healthcare services.

How the Company Makes Money

ModivCare generates revenue primarily through contracts with state governments, managed care organizations, and healthcare providers who require non-emergency medical transportation for their patients. These contracts often involve long-term agreements and are typically structured on a per-ride or capitated basis, where ModivCare is paid a fixed amount per member per month. The company also derives income from its digital health offerings and personal care services, which include in-home support for individuals needing assistance with daily activities, further expanding its revenue streams and solidifying its position in the healthcare ecosystem.

ModivCare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ModivCare is facing significant financial challenges with declining revenue, consistent net losses, negative net profit margins, high leverage, and liquidity issues. The company's reliance on debt financing and inability to generate positive cash flow raise concerns about its financial health.

Income Statement

ModivCare's income statement shows a challenging financial situation with declining revenue and consistent net losses. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data reveals a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating operational inefficiencies. Although the historical revenue growth has been substantial, recent trends show stagnation, and profitability has not been maintained.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning as it suggests heavy reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is negative, which signals financial distress and potential solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, indicating liquidity challenges. The free cash flow growth rate remains negative, and the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio underscores inefficiencies in transforming earnings into cash. These factors point towards potential difficulties in maintaining adequate cash reserves.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.75B	2.79B	2.75B	2.50B	2.00B	1.37B
Gross Profit	417.15M	420.37M	446.95M	472.32M	412.59M	289.88M
EBITDA	250.00K	4.88M	-23.33M	157.50M	146.77M	148.22M
Net Income	-229.35M	-201.28M	-204.46M	-1.84M	31.96M	88.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.68B	1.65B	1.77B	1.94B	2.03B	1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	115.96M	112.58M	2.22M	14.45M	133.14M	183.28M
Total Debt	113.22M	1.30B	1.14B	1.02B	1.02B	517.74M
Total Liabilities	1.76B	1.69B	1.61B	1.59B	1.65B	1.01B
Stockholders Equity	-87.63M	-38.47M	156.19M	354.56M	373.27M	411.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-121.14M	-34.04M	-125.26M	-43.45M	165.52M	336.29M
Operating Cash Flow	-97.30M	-6.41M	-82.97M	-10.44M	186.84M	348.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-23.84M	-27.63M	-42.29M	-111.81M	-685.63M	-635.01M
Financing Cash Flow	231.05M	144.37M	113.07M	3.81M	448.85M	408.26M

ModivCare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MODV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.39, above the 50-day MA of 2.12, and below the 200-day MA of 7.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MODV.

ModivCare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NHC	78 Outperform	$1.68B	15.69	11.19%	2.36%	19.16%	31.92%
SEM	64 Neutral	$1.95B	11.27	10.38%	1.65%	-8.86%	-36.22%
Sector *	55 Neutral	€4.83B	18.24	-49.50%	1.92%	13.92%	-4.82%
AVAH	53 Neutral	$907.19M	267.24	42.49%	―	9.05%	―
CCRN	49 Neutral	$426.51M	―	-4.00%	―	-29.16%	-140.16%
MODV	49 Neutral	$46.65M	―	-951.52%	―	-0.70%	-2.38%
AMN	49 Neutral	$839.20M	18.62	-21.08%	―	-18.13%	-215.78%

ModivCare Corporate Events

ModivCare Approves All Measures at Annual Meeting

On June 17, 2025, ModivCare Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where all proposed measures were approved, and the recommended director nominees were elected for a one-year term. The meeting also saw the approval of the executive officer compensation and the ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the 2025 fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (MODV) stock is a Hold with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ModivCare stock, see the MODV Stock Forecast page.

ModivCare Faces Nasdaq Delisting Warning Amid Revenue Decline

On May 5, 2025, Modivcare received a notification from Nasdaq regarding its market value of publicly held shares falling below the required threshold for continued listing. The company has until November 1, 2025, to regain compliance, with potential consequences including delisting or transferring to the Nasdaq Capital Market if compliance is not achieved. In its first quarter of 2025, Modivcare reported a service revenue decline to $650.7 million, a net loss of $50.4 million, and efforts to reduce costs and improve working capital efficiency. The company executed $105 million in new financing to support its transformation efforts and aims to generate over $20 million in annualized G&A savings.

ModivCare Announces CFO and CIO Departures

On May 5, 2025, Modivcare announced the planned departures of its Chief Financial Officer, Barb Gutierrez, and Chief Information Officer, Jessica Kral, as part of its strategic business model evolution. The company will not replace these roles, relying instead on existing teams to support its modernization strategy, which includes cost reduction and technology-driven integration efforts. This leadership transition is part of a broader structural shift aimed at increasing organizational speed and accountability.

ModivCare Appoints Daniel Silvers to Board

On April 25, 2025, Modivcare announced the appointment of Daniel Silvers to its board of directors, effective April 24, 2025, completing its plan to add three new independent directors. Mr. Silvers brings extensive experience in corporate finance and governance, which is expected to enhance Modivcare’s operational and financial strength. Concurrently, Craig Barbarosh, David Coulter, and Richard Kerley resigned from the board, with Coulter continuing as a board observer and Alexander Matina joining as a board observer.