ModivCare (MODV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.67M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 13.20M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.02
• Revenue Growth: -0.70%
• EPS Growth: -2.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,675
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 14,353,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 38,970,249
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 13,204,022
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 278.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.20K
• 1Y Price Target: $1.63
• Price Target Upside: 409.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 40 Underperform
• Price Target: $0.50 ▲(56.25% Upside)

ModivCare's overall stock score is heavily impacted by its financial instability, negative technical indicators, and poor valuation metrics. The recent bankruptcy filing and Nasdaq delisting notice further exacerbate the company's challenges, making it a high-risk investment.

Positive Factors

Analyst Ratings

Analyst maintains an OUTPERFORM rating, suggesting confidence in the company's performance despite challenges.

Contracts and Agreements

The company is shifting shared risk contracts to fee-for-service agreements, which should provide quicker collections and improved cash flow visibility.

Earnings

Adjusted EPS of $0.19 beat the consensus estimate of $0.17, indicating better-than-expected profitability.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow

Q1 cash flows were shockingly poor at around -$82.1 million, indicating significant financial challenges.

Contracts and Revenue

Two significant contracts were lost, which represented around $200 million of annual revenues, impacting the company's core earnings power.

Debt and Leverage

ModivCare's total debt stands at $1.36 billion, highlighting a high level of leverage.

ModivCare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ModivCare Inc. is a leading provider of technology-enabled healthcare services, primarily focused on non-emergency medical transportation (NEMT), home and community-based services, and telehealth solutions. The company operates in the healthcare sector, offering services designed to improve access to care for vulnerable populations, including Medicaid and Medicare beneficiaries. ModivCare's core services include coordinating transportation for patients to receive medical care, providing personal care services, and delivering innovative telehealth solutions, which are essential for enhancing patient engagement and health outcomes.

How the Company Makes Money

ModivCare generates revenue primarily through contracts with state governments and managed care organizations to provide non-emergency medical transportation and related healthcare services. The company earns money by billing for the transportation services it coordinates, which are reimbursed by Medicaid or Medicare programs. Additionally, ModivCare has diversified its revenue streams by expanding into home and community-based services, where it provides personal care and support services to patients in their homes. The company also capitalizes on telehealth services, which have gained importance due to increasing demand for remote healthcare solutions. Significant partnerships with healthcare payers and state agencies enhance its service offerings and contribute to its financial growth.

ModivCare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ModivCare is facing significant financial challenges, including negative profitability margins, high leverage, and liquidity issues. The company's inability to generate positive cash flow and its reliance on debt financing raise concerns about its financial health and sustainability.

Income Statement

ModivCare's income statement shows a challenging financial situation with declining revenue and consistent net losses. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data reveals a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating operational inefficiencies. Although the historical revenue growth has been substantial, recent trends show stagnation, and profitability has not been maintained.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning as it suggests heavy reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is negative, which signals financial distress and potential solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, indicating liquidity challenges. The free cash flow growth rate remains negative, and the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio underscores inefficiencies in transforming earnings into cash. These factors point towards potential difficulties in maintaining adequate cash reserves.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.75B	2.79B	2.75B	2.50B	2.00B	1.37B
Gross Profit	417.15M	420.37M	446.95M	472.32M	412.59M	289.88M
EBITDA	250.00K	4.88M	-23.33M	157.50M	146.77M	148.22M
Net Income	-229.35M	-201.28M	-204.46M	-1.84M	31.96M	88.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.68B	1.65B	1.77B	1.94B	2.03B	1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	115.96M	112.58M	2.22M	14.45M	133.14M	183.28M
Total Debt	1.40B	1.30B	1.14B	1.02B	1.02B	517.74M
Total Liabilities	1.76B	1.69B	1.61B	1.59B	1.65B	1.01B
Stockholders Equity	-87.63M	-38.47M	156.19M	354.56M	373.27M	411.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-121.14M	-34.04M	-125.26M	-43.45M	165.52M	336.29M
Operating Cash Flow	-97.30M	-6.41M	-82.97M	-10.44M	186.84M	348.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-23.84M	-27.63M	-42.29M	-111.81M	-685.63M	-635.01M
Financing Cash Flow	231.05M	144.37M	113.07M	3.81M	448.85M	408.26M

ModivCare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MODV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.28, below the 50-day MA of 2.38, and below the 200-day MA of 4.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.17 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MODV.

ModivCare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NHC	69 Neutral	$1.80B	17.28	10.65%	2.13%	25.19%	13.44%
SEM	69 Neutral	$1.62B	12.28	8.15%	1.92%	-16.10%	-48.97%
AVAH	59 Neutral	$1.73B	109.84	42.49%	―	11.53%	―
AMN	56 Neutral	$806.34M	18.62	-40.13%	―	-14.33%	-398.68%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.93B	-0.32	-43.43%	2.21%	22.30%	-1.88%
CCRN	45 Neutral	$461.94M	―	-1.96%	―	-24.30%	-210.27%
MODV	40 Underperform	$4.67M	―	-951.52%	―	-0.70%	-2.38%

ModivCare Corporate Events

ModivCare Faces Nasdaq Delisting Amid Bankruptcy Filing

On August 21, 2025, ModivCare Inc. received a delisting notice from Nasdaq due to voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings initiated on August 20, 2025. The company also received a delinquency notice for failing to file its quarterly report on time. Nasdaq plans to suspend trading of ModivCare’s common stock on August 28, 2025, and the company does not intend to appeal the decision. ModivCare anticipates its stock will be quoted on the OTC Pink Market, although this is not guaranteed. Despite these challenges, ModivCare plans to continue its operations without interruption during the restructuring process, which is supported by a supermajority of its key stakeholders.

ModivCare Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection

On August 20, 2025, Modivcare Inc. announced it has filed for voluntary Chapter 11 protection to implement a comprehensive restructuring plan with the support of a supermajority of its key stakeholders. The restructuring aims to reduce the company’s total funded debt by approximately $1.1 billion and inject $100 million in debtor-in-possession financing to support ongoing operations. This move is intended to strengthen Modivcare’s financial foundation, allowing it to continue providing uninterrupted services and positioning it for future growth. The company expects to exit the restructuring process by early fourth quarter of 2025, with no anticipated impact on its operations or service lines.

ModivCare Regains Nasdaq Compliance for Market Value

On July 10, 2025, Modivcare Inc. announced it regained compliance with Nasdaq’s Rule 5450(b)(3)(C) regarding the market value of publicly held shares, ensuring continued listing on The Nasdaq Global Select Market. This compliance was confirmed on July 7, 2025, after the company’s market value exceeded $15 million for 20 consecutive business days, reflecting positively on its stock performance and enterprise value efforts.

ModivCare Approves All Measures at Annual Meeting

On June 17, 2025, ModivCare Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where all proposed measures were approved, and the recommended director nominees were elected for a one-year term. The meeting also saw the approval of the executive officer compensation and the ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the 2025 fiscal year.