ModivCare (MODV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $41.91M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.87
• Revenue Growth: -0.70%
• EPS Growth: -2.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,675
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -1.71
• Shares Outstanding: 14,353,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 24,468,658
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,284,287
• PEG Ratio: 6.48
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -29.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 54.12
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 39.66
• 1Y Price Target: $1.15
• Price Target Upside: -60.62% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(2.74%Upside)

ModivCare's overall score reflects a challenging financial situation with negative cash flows and high leverage, despite some positive momentum in technical indicators and strategic efforts. The Nasdaq delisting warning is a significant risk, and valuation metrics are unfavorable.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Management

The company is shifting shared risk contracts to fee-for-service agreements, which should provide quicker collections and improved cash flow visibility.

Financing

ModivCare has secured $75 million in incremental financing and an additional $30 million capital commitment, indicating a strong influx of capital.

Profitability

Adjusted EPS of $0.19 beat the consensus estimate of $0.17, indicating better-than-expected profitability.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Q1 cash flows were shockingly poor at around -$82.1 million, indicating significant financial challenges.

Debt and Leverage

ModivCare's leverage has increased, contributing to financial instability.

Revenue Loss

Two significant contracts were lost, which represented around $200 million of annual revenues, impacting the company's core earnings power.

ModivCare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ModivCare Inc., a technology-enabled healthcare services company, provides a suite of integrated supportive care solutions for public and private payors and patients. The company operates through four segments: Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT), Personal Care, Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM), and the Matrix Investment. The NEMT segment offers contact center management, network credentialing, claims management, and non-emergency medical transport management services for Medicaid or Medicare eligible members, whose limited mobility or financial resources hinder their ability to access necessary healthcare and social services. The Personal Care segment provides bathing, personal hygiene, grooming, oral care, dressing, medication reminders, meal planning, preparation and feeding, housekeeping, transportation services, prescription reminders, and assistance with dressing and ambulation services through placing non-medical personal care assistants, home health aides, and skilled nurses primarily to Medicaid patients in need of care monitoring and assistance in performing daily living activities, including senior citizens and disabled adults. The RPM segment offers personal emergency response systems, vitals monitoring, medication management, and data-driven patient engagement solutions. The Matrix Investment segment provides in-home and on-site care services, as well as a fleet of mobile health clinics that offers community-based care with advanced diagnostic capabilities and care options. It serves federal, state, and local government agencies, MCOs, commercial insurers, private individuals, and health systems. The company was formerly known as The Providence Service Corporation and changed its name to ModivCare Inc. in January 2021. ModivCare Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

ModivCare generates revenue primarily through contracts with state governments, managed care organizations, and healthcare providers who require non-emergency medical transportation for their patients. These contracts often involve long-term agreements and are typically structured on a per-ride or capitated basis, where ModivCare is paid a fixed amount per member per month. The company also derives income from its digital health offerings and personal care services, which include in-home support for individuals needing assistance with daily activities, further expanding its revenue streams and solidifying its position in the healthcare ecosystem.

ModivCare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ModivCare is facing significant financial challenges with declining revenue, consistent net losses, negative net profit margins, high leverage, and liquidity issues. The company's reliance on debt financing and inability to generate positive cash flow raise concerns about its financial health.

Income Statement

ModivCare's income statement shows a challenging financial situation with declining revenue and consistent net losses. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data reveals a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating operational inefficiencies. Although the historical revenue growth has been substantial, recent trends show stagnation, and profitability has not been maintained.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning as it suggests heavy reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is negative, which signals financial distress and potential solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, indicating liquidity challenges. The free cash flow growth rate remains negative, and the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio underscores inefficiencies in transforming earnings into cash. These factors point towards potential difficulties in maintaining adequate cash reserves.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.75B	2.79B	2.75B	2.50B	2.00B	1.37B
	Gross Profit
417.15M	420.37M	446.95M	472.32M	412.59M	289.88M
	EBIT
-93.83M	-92.79M	-139.95M	57.08M	89.77M	123.16M
	EBITDA
250.00K	4.88M	-23.33M	157.50M	146.77M	148.22M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-229.35M	-201.28M	-204.46M	-1.84M	31.96M	88.84M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
115.96M	112.58M	2.22M	14.45M	133.14M	183.28M
	Total Assets
1.68B	1.65B	1.77B	1.94B	2.03B	1.43B
	Total Debt
113.22M	1.30B	1.14B	1.02B	1.02B	517.74M
	Net Debt
-2.74M	1.19B	1.14B	1.01B	886.48M	334.46M
	Total Liabilities
1.76B	1.69B	1.61B	1.59B	1.65B	1.01B
	Stockholders Equity
-87.63M	-38.47M	156.19M	354.56M	373.27M	411.61M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-121.14M	-34.04M	-125.26M	-43.45M	165.52M	336.29M
	Operating Cash Flow
-97.30M	-6.41M	-82.97M	-10.44M	186.84M	348.44M
	Investing Cash Flow
-23.84M	-27.63M	-42.29M	-111.81M	-685.63M	-635.01M
	Financing Cash Flow
231.05M	144.37M	113.07M	3.81M	448.85M	408.26M

ModivCare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 2.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MODV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.05, above the 50-day MA of 1.56, and below the 200-day MA of 9.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MODV.

ModivCare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NHC	76 Outperform	$1.60B	14.91	11.19%	2.37%	19.16%	31.92%
SEM	64 Neutral	$1.95B	11.21	10.38%	1.66%	-8.86%	-36.22%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.27	-45.10%	3.30%	16.81%	0.02%
MODV	49 Neutral	$41.91M	―	-951.52%	―	-0.70%	-2.38%
CCRN	47 Neutral	$438.64M	―	-4.00%	―	-29.16%	-140.16%
AMN	45 Neutral	$826.18M	18.62	-21.08%	―	-18.13%	-215.78%
AVAH	44 Neutral	$957.91M	282.18	42.49%	―	9.05%	―

ModivCare Corporate Events

ModivCare Faces Nasdaq Delisting Warning Amid Revenue Decline

On May 5, 2025, Modivcare received a notification from Nasdaq regarding its market value of publicly held shares falling below the required threshold for continued listing. The company has until November 1, 2025, to regain compliance, with potential consequences including delisting or transferring to the Nasdaq Capital Market if compliance is not achieved. In its first quarter of 2025, Modivcare reported a service revenue decline to $650.7 million, a net loss of $50.4 million, and efforts to reduce costs and improve working capital efficiency. The company executed $105 million in new financing to support its transformation efforts and aims to generate over $20 million in annualized G&A savings.

ModivCare Announces CFO and CIO Departures

On May 5, 2025, Modivcare announced the planned departures of its Chief Financial Officer, Barb Gutierrez, and Chief Information Officer, Jessica Kral, as part of its strategic business model evolution. The company will not replace these roles, relying instead on existing teams to support its modernization strategy, which includes cost reduction and technology-driven integration efforts. This leadership transition is part of a broader structural shift aimed at increasing organizational speed and accountability.

ModivCare Appoints Daniel Silvers to Board

On April 25, 2025, Modivcare announced the appointment of Daniel Silvers to its board of directors, effective April 24, 2025, completing its plan to add three new independent directors. Mr. Silvers brings extensive experience in corporate finance and governance, which is expected to enhance Modivcare’s operational and financial strength. Concurrently, Craig Barbarosh, David Coulter, and Richard Kerley resigned from the board, with Coulter continuing as a board observer and Alexander Matina joining as a board observer.