ModivCare (MODV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.76M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 490.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: -0.70%
• EPS Growth: -2.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,675
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 43
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): -1.71
• Shares Outstanding: 14,353,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 438,709
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 490,366
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 87.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 42.31
• 1Y Price Target: $2.33
• Price Target Upside: 156.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 33 Underperform
• Price Target: $1.00 ▲( 9.89% Upside)

ModivCare's overall stock score reflects its substantial financial instability and operational challenges. While there are strategic initiatives and new contracts, these are overshadowed by declining revenues, increased losses, and a potential Nasdaq delisting. Technical indicators and valuation metrics further underscore the stock's vulnerabilities, necessitating cautious optimism for recovery.

Positive Factors

Contract Strategy

The company is shifting shared risk contracts to fee-for-service agreements, which should provide quicker collections and improved cash flow visibility.

Financing

ModivCare has secured $75 million in incremental financing and an additional $30 million capital commitment, indicating a strong influx of capital.

Strategic Leadership

The appointment of a Chief Transformation Officer is expected to focus on asset divestitures, which could unlock significant value for ModivCare.

Negative Factors

Debt and Leverage

ModivCare's total debt stands at $1.36 billion, highlighting a high level of leverage.

Financial Performance

Adjusted EPS of -$1.71 fell well below estimates, indicating poor profitability.

Revenue Loss

Two significant contracts were lost, which represented around $200 million of annual revenues, impacting the company's core earnings power.

ModivCare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ModivCare Inc., a technology-enabled healthcare services company, provides a suite of integrated supportive care solutions for public and private payors and patients. The company operates through four segments: Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT), Personal Care, Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM), and the Matrix Investment. The NEMT segment offers contact center management, network credentialing, claims management, and non-emergency medical transport management services for Medicaid or Medicare eligible members, whose limited mobility or financial resources hinder their ability to access necessary healthcare and social services. The Personal Care segment provides bathing, personal hygiene, grooming, oral care, dressing, medication reminders, meal planning, preparation and feeding, housekeeping, transportation services, prescription reminders, and assistance with dressing and ambulation services through placing non-medical personal care assistants, home health aides, and skilled nurses primarily to Medicaid patients in need of care monitoring and assistance in performing daily living activities, including senior citizens and disabled adults. The RPM segment offers personal emergency response systems, vitals monitoring, medication management, and data-driven patient engagement solutions. The Matrix Investment segment provides in-home and on-site care services, as well as a fleet of mobile health clinics that offers community-based care with advanced diagnostic capabilities and care options. It serves federal, state, and local government agencies, MCOs, commercial insurers, private individuals, and health systems. The company was formerly known as The Providence Service Corporation and changed its name to ModivCare Inc. in January 2021. ModivCare Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

ModivCare makes money through a diversified revenue model that includes contracts with government agencies, managed care organizations (MCOs), and healthcare providers. Its primary revenue stream comes from its non-emergency medical transportation (NEMT) services, where it coordinates and provides transportation for patients who need to travel to medical appointments but lack reliable means of transportation. This service is often funded through Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and other state-sponsored programs. Additionally, ModivCare generates income from its personal and home care services, which offer in-home support for daily activities to individuals with chronic conditions or disabilities. The company also derives revenue from its nutritional meal delivery services, which cater to individuals requiring specific dietary plans due to medical conditions. Key partnerships with healthcare providers and payers enhance its service offerings and contribute significantly to its earnings.

ModivCare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ModivCare faces significant financial challenges, with declining profitability, high leverage, and a negative cash flow situation. These factors indicate a precarious financial position requiring immediate strategic intervention.

Income Statement

The company has experienced declining profitability with a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin for the latest period, indicating operational challenges. Revenue growth has stagnated, with only a slight increase from the previous year, highlighting a lack of upward trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows high leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity, reflecting financial instability and potential risk. Debt-to-equity ratio is extremely concerning due to negative equity, and the equity ratio is poor, indicating a weak financial structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative, reflecting poor cash generation and significant cash outflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not calculable due to negative figures, indicating a challenging cash flow situation.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.79B	2.75B	2.50B	2.00B	1.37B
	Gross Profit
420.37M	446.95M	472.32M	412.59M	289.88M
	EBIT
-92.79M	-139.95M	57.08M	89.77M	123.16M
	EBITDA
4.88M	-23.33M	157.50M	146.77M	148.22M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-201.28M	-204.46M	-1.84M	31.96M	88.84M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
112.58M	2.22M	14.45M	133.14M	183.28M
	Total Assets
1.65B	1.77B	1.94B	2.03B	1.43B
	Total Debt
1.30B	1.14B	1.02B	1.02B	517.74M
	Net Debt
1.19B	1.14B	1.01B	886.48M	334.46M
	Total Liabilities
1.69B	1.61B	1.59B	1.65B	1.01B
	Stockholders Equity
-38.47M	156.19M	354.56M	373.27M	411.61M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-34.04M	-125.26M	-43.45M	165.52M	336.29M
	Operating Cash Flow
-6.41M	-82.97M	-10.44M	186.84M	348.44M
	Investing Cash Flow
-27.63M	-42.29M	-111.81M	-685.63M	-635.01M
	Financing Cash Flow
144.37M	113.07M	3.81M	448.85M	408.26M

ModivCare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.91
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MODV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.19, below the 50-day MA of 1.41, and below the 200-day MA of 11.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MODV.

ModivCare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NHC	76 Outperform	$1.63B	15.28	11.19%	2.36%	19.16%	31.92%
SEM	64 Neutral	$1.94B	11.25	10.38%	2.97%	-8.86%	-36.22%
AMN	53 Neutral	$878.25M	18.62	-21.08%	―	-18.13%	-215.78%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.14B	3.06	-43.57%	2.81%	16.81%	-0.12%
AVAH	51 Neutral	$1.12B	315.52	42.49%	―	9.05%	―
CCRN	47 Neutral	$443.23M	―	-4.00%	―	-29.16%	-140.16%
MODV	33 Underperform	$13.76M	―	-951.52%	―	-0.70%	-2.38%

ModivCare Corporate Events

ModivCare Faces Nasdaq Delisting Warning Amid Revenue Decline

On May 5, 2025, Modivcare received a notification from Nasdaq regarding its market value of publicly held shares falling below the required threshold for continued listing. The company has until November 1, 2025, to regain compliance, with potential consequences including delisting or transferring to the Nasdaq Capital Market if compliance is not achieved. In its first quarter of 2025, Modivcare reported a service revenue decline to $650.7 million, a net loss of $50.4 million, and efforts to reduce costs and improve working capital efficiency. The company executed $105 million in new financing to support its transformation efforts and aims to generate over $20 million in annualized G&A savings.

ModivCare Announces CFO and CIO Departures

On May 5, 2025, Modivcare announced the planned departures of its Chief Financial Officer, Barb Gutierrez, and Chief Information Officer, Jessica Kral, as part of its strategic business model evolution. The company will not replace these roles, relying instead on existing teams to support its modernization strategy, which includes cost reduction and technology-driven integration efforts. This leadership transition is part of a broader structural shift aimed at increasing organizational speed and accountability.

ModivCare Appoints Daniel Silvers to Board

On April 25, 2025, Modivcare announced the appointment of Daniel Silvers to its board of directors, effective April 24, 2025, completing its plan to add three new independent directors. Mr. Silvers brings extensive experience in corporate finance and governance, which is expected to enhance Modivcare’s operational and financial strength. Concurrently, Craig Barbarosh, David Coulter, and Richard Kerley resigned from the board, with Coulter continuing as a board observer and Alexander Matina joining as a board observer.

ModivCare Adjusts Meeting Date for Financial Transparency

On February 28, 2025, Modivcare announced its plan to adjourn its special stockholders meeting from March 3 to March 13, 2025, to allow for the release of its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results before the meeting. The record date for voting remains unchanged, and previously submitted proxies will still be valid unless revoked. This decision ensures transparency and informed decision-making for stakeholders, aligning financial disclosures with shareholder engagement.

ModivCare Board Member Garth Graham Resigns

On February 23, 2025, Garth Graham resigned from the Board of Directors of ModivCare Inc., effective February 28, 2025. His departure was not due to any disagreement with the company. Leslie Norwalk, Chair of the Board, acknowledged Graham’s significant contributions, particularly in addressing social determinants of health, and expressed gratitude for his service.