ModivCare (MODV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $33.59M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 407.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.88
• Revenue Growth: -0.70%
• EPS Growth: -2.38%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23,675
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 41
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 14,353,820
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 237,281
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 407,810
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 38.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.12
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.20K
• 1Y Price Target: $2.88
• Price Target Upside: 22.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(27.66% Upside)

ModivCare's overall stock score reflects significant financial and technical challenges. The negative financial performance and valuation metrics weigh heavily, despite positive strategic initiatives and recent Nasdaq compliance. The stock's technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, further impacting the score.

Positive Factors

Analyst Rating

Analyst maintains an OUTPERFORM rating, suggesting confidence in the company's performance despite challenges.

Contract Strategy

The company is shifting shared risk contracts to fee-for-service agreements, which should provide quicker collections and improved cash flow visibility.

Profitability

Adjusted EPS of $0.19 beat the consensus estimate of $0.17, indicating better-than-expected profitability.

Negative Factors

Contract Losses

Two significant contracts were lost, which represented around $200 million of annual revenues, impacting the company's core earnings power.

Debt Levels

ModivCare's total debt stands at $1.36 billion, highlighting a high level of leverage.

Financial Performance

Q1 cash flows were shockingly poor at around -$82.1 million, indicating significant financial challenges.

ModivCare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ModivCare Inc., a technology-enabled healthcare services company, provides a suite of integrated supportive care solutions for public and private payors and patients. The company operates through four segments: Non-Emergency Medical Transportation (NEMT), Personal Care, Remote Patient Monitoring (RPM), and the Matrix Investment. The NEMT segment offers contact center management, network credentialing, claims management, and non-emergency medical transport management services for Medicaid or Medicare eligible members, whose limited mobility or financial resources hinder their ability to access necessary healthcare and social services. The Personal Care segment provides bathing, personal hygiene, grooming, oral care, dressing, medication reminders, meal planning, preparation and feeding, housekeeping, transportation services, prescription reminders, and assistance with dressing and ambulation services through placing non-medical personal care assistants, home health aides, and skilled nurses primarily to Medicaid patients in need of care monitoring and assistance in performing daily living activities, including senior citizens and disabled adults. The RPM segment offers personal emergency response systems, vitals monitoring, medication management, and data-driven patient engagement solutions. The Matrix Investment segment provides in-home and on-site care services, as well as a fleet of mobile health clinics that offers community-based care with advanced diagnostic capabilities and care options. It serves federal, state, and local government agencies, MCOs, commercial insurers, private individuals, and health systems. The company was formerly known as The Providence Service Corporation and changed its name to ModivCare Inc. in January 2021. ModivCare Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

ModivCare generates revenue primarily through contracts with state governments and managed care organizations to provide non-emergency medical transportation and related healthcare services. The company earns money by billing for the transportation services it coordinates, which are reimbursed by Medicaid or Medicare programs. Additionally, ModivCare has diversified its revenue streams by expanding into home and community-based services, where it provides personal care and support services to patients in their homes. The company also capitalizes on telehealth services, which have gained importance due to increasing demand for remote healthcare solutions. Significant partnerships with healthcare payers and state agencies enhance its service offerings and contribute to its financial growth.

ModivCare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ModivCare faces significant financial challenges, evidenced by its declining revenue, negative profitability margins, high leverage, and liquidity issues. The company's inability to generate positive cash flow and heavy reliance on debt financing raise concerns about financial health.

Income Statement

ModivCare's income statement shows a challenging financial situation with declining revenue and consistent net losses. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data reveals a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, indicating operational inefficiencies. Although the historical revenue growth has been substantial, recent trends show stagnation, and profitability has not been maintained.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is concerning as it suggests heavy reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio is negative, which signals financial distress and potential solvency issues.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows, indicating liquidity challenges. The free cash flow growth rate remains negative, and the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio underscores inefficiencies in transforming earnings into cash. These factors point towards potential difficulties in maintaining adequate cash reserves.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.79B	2.75B	2.50B	2.00B	1.37B
Gross Profit	420.37M	446.95M	472.32M	412.59M	289.88M
EBITDA	4.88M	-23.33M	157.50M	146.77M	148.22M
Net Income	-201.28M	-204.46M	-1.84M	31.96M	88.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.65B	1.77B	1.94B	2.03B	1.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	112.58M	2.22M	14.45M	133.14M	183.28M
Total Debt	1.30B	1.14B	1.02B	1.02B	517.74M
Total Liabilities	1.69B	1.61B	1.59B	1.65B	1.01B
Stockholders Equity	-38.47M	156.19M	354.56M	373.27M	411.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-34.04M	-125.26M	-43.45M	165.52M	336.29M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.41M	-82.97M	-10.44M	186.84M	348.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-27.63M	-42.29M	-111.81M	-685.63M	-635.01M
Financing Cash Flow	144.37M	113.07M	3.81M	448.85M	408.26M

ModivCare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MODV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.71, below the 50-day MA of 3.11, and below the 200-day MA of 6.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MODV.

ModivCare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SEM	71 Outperform	$1.56B	11.81	8.15%	2.00%	-16.10%	-48.97%
NHC	69 Neutral	$1.65B	15.86	10.65%	2.30%	25.19%	13.44%
MODV	48 Neutral	$33.59M	―	-951.52%	―	-0.70%	-2.38%
AMN	48 Neutral	$715.51M	18.62	-40.13%	―	-14.33%	-398.68%
AVAH	47 Neutral	$1.50B	94.15	42.49%	―	11.53%	―
Sector *	47 Neutral	C$213.29M	-1.44	-30.58%	3.10%	19.48%	-0.04%
CCRN	45 Neutral	$426.23M	―	-1.96%	―	-24.30%	-210.27%

ModivCare Corporate Events

ModivCare Regains Nasdaq Compliance for Market Value

On July 10, 2025, Modivcare Inc. announced it regained compliance with Nasdaq’s Rule 5450(b)(3)(C) regarding the market value of publicly held shares, ensuring continued listing on The Nasdaq Global Select Market. This compliance was confirmed on July 7, 2025, after the company’s market value exceeded $15 million for 20 consecutive business days, reflecting positively on its stock performance and enterprise value efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (MODV) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ModivCare stock, see the MODV Stock Forecast page.

ModivCare Approves All Measures at Annual Meeting

On June 17, 2025, ModivCare Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders where all proposed measures were approved, and the recommended director nominees were elected for a one-year term. The meeting also saw the approval of the executive officer compensation and the ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the 2025 fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (MODV) stock is a Hold with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ModivCare stock, see the MODV Stock Forecast page.