National Healthcare (NHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.54B
• Dividend Yield: 1.8%
• Average Volume (3M): 80.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: 23.74%
• EPS Growth: -18.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,962
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 1.58
• Shares Outstanding: 15,541,309
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 111,270
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 80,310
• PEG Ratio: 1.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.44
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.77
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $183.00 ▲(33.40% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (improved profitability, solid cash generation, and very low leverage) and constructive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). Offsetting these strengths are a relatively higher P/E and a modest dividend yield, plus a near-term fundamental watch item of negative 2025 revenue growth.

Positive Factors

Improving cash generation

Sustained, materially stronger cash generation (OCF and FCF) improves the company’s ability to fund operations, cover capital needs, and sustain shareholder returns without relying on external financing. This structural cash conversion supports resilience across reimbursement cycles and strategic flexibility.

Conservative balance sheet

Very low leverage and a strengthened equity base provide durable financial flexibility to absorb reimbursement shocks, invest in operations or acquisitions, and maintain dividends. Conservative debt levels reduce interest burden and risk during economic or industry-specific stress periods.

Board strengthening & domain expertise

Adding a geriatric/public-health leader and an experienced operator/financial executive enhances clinical quality oversight, regulatory navigation, and operational strategy. Stronger governance and sector expertise support long-term clinical performance and disciplined growth execution.

Negative Factors

Recent revenue decline

A return to top-line contraction signals persistent demand, reimbursement, or occupancy headwinds. Even modest revenue declines can pressure margins in labor-intensive care operations and limit the runway for margin recovery absent sustained census or rate improvements.

Historic earnings & cash volatility

Past swings in cash flow and profitability indicate earnings are cyclical and sensitive to operational disruptions. This history raises execution risk for maintaining payouts and funding growth if future reimbursement, staffing, or occupancy challenges re-emerge.

Exposure to reimbursement and labor pressures

Business economics depend on payer mix and labor intensity; structural increases in staffing costs or unfavorable Medicare/Medicaid policy changes can compress margins. These sector dynamics are persistent and can constrain long-term margin sustainability absent pricing power or efficiency gains.

National Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National Healthcare (NHC) is a leading provider of healthcare services in the United States, specializing in long-term care and rehabilitation services. With a focus on delivering high-quality patient care, NHC operates a network of skilled nursing facilities, assisted living communities, and outpatient rehabilitation centers. The company is committed to enhancing the quality of life for its residents and patients through personalized healthcare solutions and a dedicated workforce of healthcare professionals.

How the Company Makes Money

NHC generates revenue primarily through the provision of healthcare services, which are funded by government programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, as well as private pay sources. The company earns money through daily service fees charged to patients and residents in its facilities, which cover various aspects of care, including room and board, medical treatment, and rehabilitation services. Additionally, NHC may engage in partnerships with hospitals and healthcare organizations to facilitate patient referrals, thereby creating additional revenue streams through shared care agreements. The company also benefits from long-term contracts and relationships with state and federal healthcare programs, which provide a stable source of income.

National Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: profitability improved materially (net margin ~8.2% in 2025) and operating/free cash flow strengthened (FCF $148.6M in 2025). Balance sheet is conservatively levered (debt-to-equity 0.08 in 2025). Key risks are the return to negative revenue growth in 2025 (-2.1%) and historical earnings/cash-flow volatility (notably 2022).

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly from 2022–2024, but the latest year showed a modest decline (2025 revenue growth -2.1%), signaling some near-term demand or reimbursement pressure. Profitability has improved materially since the 2022 trough: net margin rose from ~2.1% (2022) to ~8.2% (2025), and net income increased to $120.0M (2025) from $22.4M (2022). A key weakness is margin volatility across the period (notably the sharp drop from 2021 to 2022), suggesting earnings can be sensitive to cost and operating conditions.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned with low leverage: debt-to-equity is 0.08 in 2025, down from 0.22 in 2024, indicating meaningful deleveraging. Equity has steadily grown over time (to $1.07B in 2025), and return on equity improved versus the weaker 2022 level, reaching ~11.2% in 2025. The main limitation is incomplete visibility in 2025 because total assets are not provided for that year, reducing transparency on asset base trends.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow rose to $185.1M in 2025 from $107.3M in 2024, and free cash flow increased to $148.6M (up 1.21x year over year). Free cash flow is a healthy share of earnings (about 80% of net income in 2025), supporting quality of profits. The key risk is historical variability—2022 saw very weak operating cash flow ($8.7M) and negative free cash flow (-$21.5M)—so cash conversion has not been consistently strong across cycles.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.47B	1.30B	1.14B	1.07B	1.01B
Gross Profit	548.55M	487.01M	429.20M	388.11M	344.88M
EBITDA	213.72M	182.53M	131.10M	68.28M	191.56M
Net Income	120.02M	101.93M	66.80M	22.45M	138.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.53B	1.52B	1.31B	1.28B	1.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	309.18M	216.19M	223.62M	182.59M	256.02M
Total Debt	87.07M	214.77M	93.39M	125.94M	166.66M
Total Liabilities	451.90M	541.27M	400.32M	397.94M	494.94M
Stockholders Equity	1.07B	980.16M	908.75M	874.28M	903.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	148.63M	79.70M	83.31M	-21.46M	23.00M
Operating Cash Flow	185.08M	107.30M	111.22M	8.74M	62.39M
Investing Cash Flow	-33.86M	-236.69M	-17.57M	-5.98M	-65.89M
Financing Cash Flow	-135.96M	100.34M	-42.55M	-47.64M	-35.26M

National Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 137.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 137.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 159.38, below the 50-day MA of 146.50, and above the 200-day MA of 121.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NHC.

National Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NHC	78 Outperform	$2.54B	21.32	9.94%	1.80%	23.74%	-18.99%
ADUS	75 Outperform	$1.92B	19.86	8.58%	―	18.77%	6.88%
SEM	65 Neutral	$1.86B	12.85	5.57%	1.69%	-22.96%	-59.35%
BKD	58 Neutral	$3.64B	-13.71	-214.33%	―	3.93%	-42.22%
AVAH	52 Neutral	$1.54B	20.44	―	―	15.48%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ACHC	50 Neutral	$2.16B	-1.92	-43.91%	―	4.58%	-61.50%

National Healthcare Corporate Events

National Healthcare Expands Board With Two New Directors

National HealthCare Corporation announced on February 17, 2026, that its Board of Directors unanimously expanded from seven to nine members effective February 12, 2026, appointing geriatrician and former AHCA/NCAL executive Dr. David Gifford and longtime NHC-affiliated operator and financial services executive Andrew Adams as independent directors. The move deepens the board’s expertise in geriatrics, public health, long-term care operations, and business expansion while reinforcing family continuity with the founding Adams family, with Gifford joining the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee and Adams the Compensation Committee, potentially shaping NHC’s strategic direction in clinical quality and growth.

Dr. Gifford, a former Rhode Island health director and key figure in national long-term care quality and pandemic response, brings extensive experience at the intersection of geriatric medicine, policy, and healthcare operations that NHC expects will enhance its focus on elder care and clinical performance. Adams, who previously ran one of NHC’s largest continuing care retirement communities and later expanded a multistate financial services business, adds operational and growth-focused expertise alongside deep institutional knowledge as the grandson of the company’s founder and nephew of the current chairman, signaling an emphasis on both governance independence and continuity in the company’s leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (NHC) stock is a Hold with a $161.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Healthcare stock, see the NHC Stock Forecast page.

National HealthCare Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders

On February 13, 2026, National HealthCare Corporation announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.64 per common share, reinforcing its pattern of returning capital to shareholders. The dividend will be paid on April 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 31, 2026, underscoring the company’s ongoing confidence in its cash flow and financial stability within the long-term care sector.

For investors and other stakeholders, the declared dividend highlights NHC’s continued emphasis on shareholder returns alongside its expansive long-term care and post-acute service footprint. The move may be seen as a signal of operational resilience amid regulatory and economic pressures that typically affect Medicare- and Medicaid-reimbursed healthcare providers.

The most recent analyst rating on (NHC) stock is a Hold with a $161.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Healthcare stock, see the NHC Stock Forecast page.