Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.58B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.76M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 4.58%
• EPS Growth: -61.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 25,500
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 92,258,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,695,520
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,757,512
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.94
• 1Y Price Target: $20.67
• Price Target Upside: -0.82% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.49
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.41B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(0.77% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is held down primarily by weakened recent financial quality (large TTM net loss and negative free cash flow) despite solid revenue growth and a balance sheet that is not distressed. Technicals are supportive but look overheated (very high RSI/Stochastic), and valuation is challenged by a negative P/E. Management’s 2026 outlook for positive free cash flow and solid adjusted profitability provides a partial offset, though key headwinds (PLGL, NY Medicaid, start-up losses, legal/regulatory uncertainty) remain.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth & Same-Facility Improvement

Sustained top-line growth and same-facility improvement indicate durable demand for behavioral health services and better utilization. Consistent revenue expansion reduces execution risk on new openings and supports multi-quarter operational recovery if margins normalize and payer relationships remain stable.

Capacity Expansion & Scale

Rapid, deliberate bed additions expand geographic scale and referral coverage, improving unit economics as facilities ramp. Scale enables fixed-cost absorption and cross-facility best-practice deployment, underpinning management’s multi-year embedded EBITDA opportunity as utilization and length-of-stay trends improve.

Management & Leadership Continuity

Reinstalling a proven, long-tenured CEO provides operational continuity and credibility for execution of turnaround initiatives. Leadership alignment via performance-based incentives and a focus on standardized openings, quality metrics and outcomes enhances the odds of realizing embedded EBITDA and restoring cash generation over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

Negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash flow signals heavy investment, start-up losses and working capital demands that will require external funding or slowed expansion until conversion improves. This structural cash burn limits strategic flexibility and makes deleveraging contingent on sustained margin recovery.

Large PLGL Liability

Material professional and general liability reserves are an ongoing, multi-year cash and earnings drag. Elevated PLGL expense increases earnings volatility and can necessitate further reserves or settlements, constraining free cash flow and reducing capital available for growth or debt reduction until legal outcomes are resolved.

NY Medicaid Policy Headwind

A structural reimbursement change in New York meaningfully reduces addressable patient volume and profitability in that footprint. Persisting policy shifts force closures and lost scale, increase per-unit overhead, and make local ramp economics harder to achieve, pressuring margins over multiple reporting periods.

Acadia Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers behavioral healthcare services to its patients in various settings, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals, specialty treatment facilities, residential treatment centers, and outpatient clinics. As of March 31, 2022, it operated a network of 238 behavioral healthcare facilities with approximately 10,600 beds. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Acadia Healthcare generates revenue primarily through the provision of its healthcare services, which are reimbursed by a combination of private insurance, government programs such as Medicaid and Medicare, and out-of-pocket payments from patients. The company operates on a fee-for-service model, where it bills insurers and patients for the treatments and services provided. Key revenue streams include inpatient admissions, outpatient services, and residential treatment programs. Acadia also benefits from partnerships with hospitals and health systems that refer patients to its facilities. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic acquisitions of other healthcare facilities to expand its service offerings and increase its market presence, further contributing to its earnings.

Acadia Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Top-line growth is strong, but the latest TTM shows a sharp profitability and cash-flow break: a very large net loss and negative EBITDA alongside negative free cash flow. Leverage is moderate and the balance sheet is workable, but weakening trends in equity/returns and ongoing cash burn raise risk until profitability and free cash flow stabilize.

Income Statement

Revenue growth is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (+144.6%), but profitability quality has deteriorated versus prior annual periods: TTM shows a very large net loss (-$1.10B) and negative EBITDA (-$737.1M) despite positive EBIT ($275.3M). Earlier years (2021–2024) generally showed positive operating profitability and mostly positive net income, so the TTM swing signals elevated earnings volatility and execution/accounting headwinds. Margins also look inconsistent across periods, which reduces confidence in the current run-rate.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with debt-to-equity around 0.78 and total debt of ~$2.64B against equity of ~$1.95B. However, the capital structure has weakened from 2024 (lower debt and higher equity), and returns on equity are modest in TTM (~3.5%) after being stronger in 2021–2022 and negative in some earlier periods. Overall, the balance sheet is not distressed, but trend-wise it is moving in the wrong direction and is less insulated if earnings remain pressured.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key concern: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is positive ($131.9M) but free cash flow is negative (-$346.7M), and free cash flow declined versus the prior period. The business also shows weak conversion of earnings into operating cash flow in recent years (notably 2024), suggesting working-capital/investment demands or other cash headwinds. While 2022–2023 were comparatively healthier (positive free cash flow), the latest trend points to higher funding needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.31B	3.15B	2.93B	2.61B	2.31B
Gross Profit	583.44M	711.98M	682.61M	2.51B	2.22B
EBITDA	-737.83M	607.84M	189.11M	561.67M	459.47M
Net Income	-1.10B	255.61M	-21.67M	273.14M	190.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.53B	5.96B	5.36B	4.99B	4.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	133.24M	76.31M	100.07M	97.65M	133.81M
Total Debt	2.64B	2.09B	1.51B	1.53B	1.64B
Total Liabilities	3.39B	2.77B	2.47B	2.09B	2.19B
Stockholders Equity	1.95B	3.07B	2.78B	2.81B	2.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	131.90M	-560.69M	38.21M	84.42M	129.67M
Operating Cash Flow	131.90M	129.69M	462.34M	380.57M	374.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-556.21M	-736.48M	-397.22M	-305.83M	1.02B
Financing Cash Flow	481.25M	583.02M	-62.70M	-110.90M	-1.64B

Acadia Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.25, above the 50-day MA of 14.50, and above the 200-day MA of 19.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.52 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACHC.

Acadia Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NHC	78 Outperform	$2.44B	24.29	9.94%	1.80%	23.74%	-18.99%
LFST	66 Neutral	$2.78B	297.59	0.65%	―	13.39%	90.55%
SEM	65 Neutral	$1.84B	12.72	5.57%	1.69%	-22.96%	-59.35%
BKD	58 Neutral	$3.65B	-13.55	-214.33%	―	3.93%	-42.22%
SGRY	53 Neutral	$1.99B	-11.43	-9.45%	―	10.14%	-182.12%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ACHC	50 Neutral	$1.58B	-1.71	-43.91%	―	4.58%	-61.50%

Acadia Healthcare Corporate Events

Acadia Healthcare CEO Christopher Hunter Departs Company, Board

On January 20, 2026, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. announced that Chief Executive Officer Christopher H. Hunter departed from his role and simultaneously resigned from the company’s board of directors, with both changes effective that same day. Under a separation and release agreement, Hunter will remain eligible for his 2025 annual bonus and will receive severance equal to 1.5 times his base salary plus target 2025 bonus, paid over 18 months, 18 months of after-tax health and dental premium support, a $1,785,000 lump-sum cash retention bonus, and the continued vesting eligibility of a prorated portion of his performance-based restricted stock units based on actual future performance, while all other unvested equity awards were forfeited; these benefits are contingent on his release of claims and compliance with restrictive covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Acadia Healthcare Reinstates Former CEO Amid Leadership Transition

On January 20, 2026, Acadia Healthcare announced that Chief Executive Officer Christopher H. Hunter departed the company and resigned from its board, with the company expecting to enter into a separation and release agreement to be detailed in a later regulatory filing. That same day, the board reinstated former CEO and director Debra K. (Debbie) Osteen as chief executive, principal executive officer and Class I director, underscoring a leadership reset amid macro headwinds for healthcare providers while the board conducts a broader search for a long‑term successor and evaluates options to enhance shareholder value. Osteen, a long-time industry leader credited with helping build Acadia into a leading behavioral health provider, has entered into a new open‑ended employment agreement that includes a $1.061 million base salary, performance-based annual bonus eligibility and a sizeable stock option grant tied to multi-year share price targets and retention conditions, aligning her compensation with company performance. Acadia reaffirmed its full-year 2025 financial guidance, maintaining revenue expectations of $3.28 billion to $3.30 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $601 million to $611 million, and adjusted EPS of $1.94 to $2.04, signaling operational stability and continuity of its growth strategy despite the leadership transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Acadia Healthcare Reaffirms 2025 Financial Guidance at Conference

On January 13, 2026, Acadia Healthcare representatives participated in the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, where management reaffirmed its 2025 financial guidance, projecting revenue of $3.28 billion to $3.30 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $601 million to $611 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.94 to $2.04. The reaffirmation underscores management’s confidence in the company’s operating trajectory despite regulatory and operational headwinds, including changes to Medicaid financing and work requirements under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and highlights the importance of execution on growth initiatives, cost management and integration of facilities for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Acadia Healthcare Updates 2025 Fiscal Year Guidance

On December 2, 2025, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. released updated guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. This announcement provides stakeholders with revised expectations for the company’s financial performance, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.