Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: 4.58%
• EPS Growth: -61.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 25,500
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.72
• Shares Outstanding: 92,258,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,107,158
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,968,138
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.15
• P/FCF Ratio: -6.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.72
• 1Y Price Target: $18.91
• Price Target Upside: 40.69% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(4.17% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid top-line growth and improved gross margins, but is held back by declining profitability, higher leverage, and weak cash conversion. Technicals remain pressured over the longer term (below 100/200-day averages with negative MACD), while valuation is reasonable at a mid-teens P/E. Guidance cuts and leadership transition add additional near-term risk.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth & Gross Margin

Sustained double-digit TTM revenue growth paired with an 81.2% gross margin signals durable demand for behavioral health services and improving operational efficiency. High gross margins give Acadia structural flexibility to reinvest in capacity, absorb payor mix shifts, and support debt servicing over the medium term.

Network Scale and Bed Expansion

Aggressive capacity growth (1,700+ beds plus 500–700 planned) materially increases Acadia’s scale and market footprint. Larger network enhances referral relationships and negotiating leverage with payors, creates potential operating leverage as fixed costs spread across higher volumes, and supports durable revenue growth.

Improved Free Cash Flow Generation

A 322.8% improvement in free cash flow reflects better cash conversion and liquidity. Stronger FCF enhances the company’s ability to fund capital investments, repay or refinance debt, absorb legal or regulatory costs, and pursue targeted acquisitions without diluting shareholders, increasing long-term financial optionality.

Negative Factors

Declining Profitability

A drop in net margin from 8.1% to 4.3% indicates persistent pressure on the bottom line. Sustained margin erosion reduces ROE and internal funding for growth, forces reliance on cost cuts or pricing changes, and leaves less buffer against reimbursement cuts or one-time liabilities over the medium term.

Elevated Leverage

Rising leverage (debt/equity ~0.78) increases fixed obligations and reduces financial flexibility. In a sector exposed to reimbursement and regulatory risk, higher debt raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constrains M&A optionality, and forces trade-offs between capex, deleveraging, and shareholder returns.

Medicaid Exposure & Regulatory/Legal Costs

Material softness in Medicaid volumes combined with multi-million-dollar investigation-related expenses highlights structural risk tied to government reimbursement and regulatory scrutiny. Dependence on Medicaid makes revenue and cash flow sensitive to policy shifts, denials, and liability reserves, pressuring margins and capital planning.

Acadia Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers behavioral healthcare services to its patients in various settings, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals, specialty treatment facilities, residential treatment centers, and outpatient clinics. As of March 31, 2022, it operated a network of 238 behavioral healthcare facilities with approximately 10,600 beds. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Acadia Healthcare generates revenue primarily through the provision of its healthcare services, which are reimbursed by a combination of private insurance, government programs such as Medicaid and Medicare, and out-of-pocket payments from patients. The company operates on a fee-for-service model, where it bills insurers and patients for the treatments and services provided. Key revenue streams include inpatient admissions, outpatient services, and residential treatment programs. Acadia also benefits from partnerships with hospitals and health systems that refer patients to its facilities. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic acquisitions of other healthcare facilities to expand its service offerings and increase its market presence, further contributing to its earnings.

Acadia Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth is solid (TTM +11.3%) and gross margin improved meaningfully (81.2%), but profitability weakened (net margin down to 4.3% and lower EBIT/EBITDA margins). Balance sheet leverage increased (debt-to-equity 0.78) and ROE declined (4.6%). Cash flow improved (FCF growth +322.8%) but cash conversion is weak (OCF/NI 0.81; FCF/NI 0.07).

Income Statement

Acadia Healthcare shows strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 11.3%, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 81.2% in the TTM, suggesting enhanced operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin decreased to 4.3% from 8.1% in the previous year, reflecting challenges in controlling costs or other expenses. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also declined, indicating potential pressure on profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio increased to 0.78 in the TTM, reflecting higher leverage, which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. Return on equity decreased to 4.6%, suggesting reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. However, the equity ratio remains stable, indicating a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Acadia Healthcare's free cash flow growth rate improved dramatically to 322.8% in the TTM, indicating better cash management. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.81, suggesting that cash generation is not fully aligned with reported profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.07, indicating limited cash conversion from profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.27B	3.15B	2.93B	2.61B	2.31B	2.09B
Gross Profit	2.66B	711.98M	682.61M	2.51B	2.22B	2.00B
EBITDA	456.57M	607.84M	189.11M	561.67M	459.47M	437.16M
Net Income	107.36M	255.61M	-21.67M	273.14M	190.63M	-672.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.41B	5.96B	5.36B	4.99B	4.77B	6.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	118.69M	76.31M	100.07M	97.65M	133.81M	378.70M
Total Debt	2.43B	2.09B	1.51B	1.53B	1.64B	3.26B
Total Liabilities	3.12B	2.77B	2.47B	2.09B	2.19B	4.60B
Stockholders Equity	3.12B	3.07B	2.78B	2.81B	2.52B	1.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-347.22M	-560.69M	38.21M	84.42M	129.67M	442.19M
Operating Cash Flow	334.89M	129.69M	462.34M	380.57M	374.48M	658.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-667.11M	-736.48M	-397.22M	-305.83M	1.02B	-281.84M
Financing Cash Flow	368.76M	583.02M	-62.70M	-110.90M	-1.64B	-51.50M

Acadia Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.44
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.64, below the 50-day MA of 14.39, and below the 200-day MA of 20.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ACHC.

Acadia Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NHC	74 Outperform	$2.22B	21.63	9.94%	1.80%	23.74%	-18.99%
SEM	69 Neutral	$1.86B	17.22	5.57%	1.69%	-22.96%	-59.35%
ACHC	62 Neutral	$1.24B	11.40	3.49%	―	4.58%	-61.50%
LFST	61 Neutral	$2.75B	-297.06	-0.62%	―	13.39%	90.55%
BKD	55 Neutral	$3.56B	-13.58	-214.33%	―	3.93%	-42.22%
SGRY	53 Neutral	$1.92B	-10.96	-9.45%	―	10.14%	-182.12%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Acadia Healthcare Corporate Events

Acadia Healthcare CEO Christopher Hunter Departs Company, Board

On January 20, 2026, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. announced that Chief Executive Officer Christopher H. Hunter departed from his role and simultaneously resigned from the company’s board of directors, with both changes effective that same day. Under a separation and release agreement, Hunter will remain eligible for his 2025 annual bonus and will receive severance equal to 1.5 times his base salary plus target 2025 bonus, paid over 18 months, 18 months of after-tax health and dental premium support, a $1,785,000 lump-sum cash retention bonus, and the continued vesting eligibility of a prorated portion of his performance-based restricted stock units based on actual future performance, while all other unvested equity awards were forfeited; these benefits are contingent on his release of claims and compliance with restrictive covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Acadia Healthcare Reinstates Former CEO Amid Leadership Transition

On January 20, 2026, Acadia Healthcare announced that Chief Executive Officer Christopher H. Hunter departed the company and resigned from its board, with the company expecting to enter into a separation and release agreement to be detailed in a later regulatory filing. That same day, the board reinstated former CEO and director Debra K. (Debbie) Osteen as chief executive, principal executive officer and Class I director, underscoring a leadership reset amid macro headwinds for healthcare providers while the board conducts a broader search for a long‑term successor and evaluates options to enhance shareholder value. Osteen, a long-time industry leader credited with helping build Acadia into a leading behavioral health provider, has entered into a new open‑ended employment agreement that includes a $1.061 million base salary, performance-based annual bonus eligibility and a sizeable stock option grant tied to multi-year share price targets and retention conditions, aligning her compensation with company performance. Acadia reaffirmed its full-year 2025 financial guidance, maintaining revenue expectations of $3.28 billion to $3.30 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $601 million to $611 million, and adjusted EPS of $1.94 to $2.04, signaling operational stability and continuity of its growth strategy despite the leadership transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Acadia Healthcare Reaffirms 2025 Financial Guidance at Conference

On January 13, 2026, Acadia Healthcare representatives participated in the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, where management reaffirmed its 2025 financial guidance, projecting revenue of $3.28 billion to $3.30 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $601 million to $611 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.94 to $2.04. The reaffirmation underscores management’s confidence in the company’s operating trajectory despite regulatory and operational headwinds, including changes to Medicaid financing and work requirements under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and highlights the importance of execution on growth initiatives, cost management and integration of facilities for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Acadia Healthcare Updates 2025 Fiscal Year Guidance

On December 2, 2025, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. released updated guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. This announcement provides stakeholders with revised expectations for the company’s financial performance, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Acadia Healthcare Settles $179M Securities Litigation

On November 7, 2025, Acadia Healthcare agreed to settle a securities litigation case in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee, involving the St. Clair County Employees’ Retirement System. The settlement, which amounts to $179 million, will be funded through insurance proceeds, cash on hand, and existing credit lines, and will not impact the company’s adjusted EBITDA or financial guidance. Acadia maintains a strong financial position with significant cash reserves and credit availability, ensuring its capacity for strategic investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.