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Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)
NASDAQ:ACHC
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Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) AI Stock Analysis

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ACHC

Acadia Healthcare

(NASDAQ:ACHC)

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Neutral 49 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$31.00
▼(-10.17% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
ACHC scores below average primarily due to weak financial performance (TTM revenue decline, large net losses, higher leverage, and still-pressured free cash flow). Technicals are also soft in the near term with the stock below key short-term moving averages. These are partly offset by a more constructive earnings outlook (raised full-year profitability guidance and positive free-cash-flow expectations), but corporate-event risk—especially the large jury verdict—keeps the overall score constrained.
Positive Factors
Capacity expansion & JV growth
Accelerating bed additions and joint ventures expand scale and referral reach, diversifying revenue sources and lowering unit operating costs over time. Persistent capacity growth via JVs reduces single-site execution risk and supports sustainable top-line growth as new beds ramp to utilization.
Negative Factors
Major legal verdict risk
A large punitive verdict creates material legal and cash-flow uncertainty, likely prompting reserve increases or insurance disputes. Even if appealed, outcome risk and litigation costs can strain liquidity and credit metrics, complicating deleveraging and capital allocation for months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capacity expansion & JV growth
Accelerating bed additions and joint ventures expand scale and referral reach, diversifying revenue sources and lowering unit operating costs over time. Persistent capacity growth via JVs reduces single-site execution risk and supports sustainable top-line growth as new beds ramp to utilization.
Read all positive factors

Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Acadia Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. specializes in delivering a comprehensive range of behavioral health services, with its operations spanning the United States and Puerto Rico. Patients receive care in diverse environments, including acute inpatient...
How the Company Makes Money
Acadia Healthcare primarily makes money by delivering behavioral healthcare services and billing payors for patient care. Its revenue is largely generated from (1) facility-based patient services (e.g., inpatient and residential treatment, partial...

Acadia Healthcare Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive operational and financial start to 2026: revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew, results beat guidance, management raised full-year profitability targets, and execution initiatives (leadership changes, cost efficiencies, bed additions, JVs, technology) are showing early benefits. Offsetting these positives are persistent challenges in specialty (notably Pennsylvania), slower CTC performance due to weather, elevated bad debts/denials, temporary higher leverage in Q2 from timing of supplemental payments, and ongoing start-up/closure headwinds. Overall, progress on operations and margins appears to outweigh the headwinds, though some risks (payer behavior and supplemental approvals) remain.
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Same-Facility Improvement
Reported Q1 revenue of $828.8 million, a 7.6% increase year-over-year. Same-facility revenue grew 7.3% YoY, driven by a 5.6% increase in revenue per patient day and a 1.6% increase in patient days.
Negative Updates
Specialty Segment Pressure and Revenue Decline
Specialty facility revenue declined 6.5% YoY in Q1, driven by challenges in Pennsylvania (including New York's decision to stop sending residents to PA facilities) and prior-year closures; closures created nearly a 6% headwind to growth.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Negative
Revenue Growth and Same-Facility Improvement
Reported Q1 revenue of $828.8 million, a 7.6% increase year-over-year. Same-facility revenue grew 7.3% YoY, driven by a 5.6% increase in revenue per patient day and a 1.6% increase in patient days.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Acadia guided to Q2 revenue of $835–$850 million, adjusted EBITDA of $142–$152 million and adjusted EPS of $0.30–$0.40, and reiterated full‑year revenue of $3.37–$3.45 billion while raising full‑year adjusted EBITDA to $580–$615 million (a $5M midpoint increase) and adjusted EPS to $1.35–$1.60 (from $1.30–$1.55); Q1 actuals were revenue $828.8M and adjusted EBITDA $144.2M (7.5% YoY), beating Q1 guidance by $7.2M. Key balance‑sheet and cash metrics included $158M cash, ~$565M available on a $1.0B revolver, operating cash flow $62M, Q1 CapEx $77M with FY CapEx guided to $255–$280M, Q1 free cash flow negative $15M but positive free cash flow expected for 2026, and net leverage ~3.9x as of 3/31 with 12‑month rolling adjusted EBITDA expected $559–$569M (implying Q2 net leverage ~4.4–4.5x and year‑end leverage targeted at 3.9–4.2x). Other assumptions called out: same‑facility revenue +7.3% (driven by +5.6% revenue per patient day and +1.6% patient days), Q1 same‑facility adjusted EBITDA $199.5M, Q1 start‑up losses $12M (now pegged at ~$47–$51M for the year), 82 beds added in Q1 and 400–600 beds expected in 2026, a Q1 weather headwind of $3.7M, and potential incremental EBITDA of at least $22M if certain supplemental payment programs are approved.

Acadia Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial statements indicate elevated near-term risk: TTM revenue declined ~10% and profitability swung to a deep net loss (~33% of revenue). Leverage has increased to ~1.3x debt-to-equity, reducing flexibility. While operating cash flow is positive (~$211M TTM), free cash flow remains slightly negative, showing incomplete cash conversion.
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
39
Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.37B3.31B3.15B2.93B2.61B2.31B
Gross Profit1.20B583.44M711.98M682.61M2.51B2.22B
EBITDA-683.55M-737.83M607.84M189.11M561.67M459.47M
Net Income-1.13B-1.10B255.61M-21.67M273.14M190.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.55B5.53B5.96B5.36B4.99B4.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments171.29M133.24M76.31M100.07M97.65M133.81M
Total Debt2.56B2.65B2.09B1.51B1.53B1.64B
Total Liabilities3.35B3.39B2.77B2.47B2.09B2.19B
Stockholders Equity1.98B1.95B3.07B2.78B2.81B2.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-18.91M-439.91M-560.69M38.21M84.42M129.67M
Operating Cash Flow210.51M131.90M129.69M462.34M380.57M374.48M
Investing Cash Flow-306.44M-547.58M-736.48M-397.22M-305.83M1.02B
Financing Cash Flow135.80M472.61M583.02M-62.70M-110.90M-1.64B

Acadia Healthcare Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price34.51
Price Trends
50DMA
29.13
Positive
100DMA
27.26
Positive
200DMA
22.16
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.34
Positive
RSI
50.53
Neutral
STOCH
74.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.18, above the 50-day MA of 29.13, and above the 200-day MA of 22.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACHC.

Acadia Healthcare Risk Analysis

Acadia Healthcare disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Acadia Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Acadia Healthcare Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$4.55B88.333.39%20.38%
72
Outperform
$3.46B24.0012.94%1.15%7.19%32.91%
53
Neutral
$2.09B-21.74-5.21%3.99%51.58%
52
Neutral
$3.27B-21.68405.63%-4.42%44.67%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
49
Neutral
$2.96B-2.50-50.02%4.27%-917.61%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ACHC
Acadia Healthcare
31.10
10.33
49.74%
BKD
Brookdale Senior Living
12.55
5.16
69.82%
NHC
National Healthcare
216.69
109.71
102.56%
SGRY
Surgery Partners
15.00
-8.56
-36.33%
LFST
Lifestance Health Group
11.50
6.33
122.44%

Acadia Healthcare Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Acadia Healthcare Reports Mixed Q2 Results, Reinforces Growth Strategy
Negative
Jul 28, 2026
For the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, Acadia Healthcare reported total revenue of $865.8 million, essentially flat year over year, though management noted underlying revenue growth of 2.8% after normalizing for prior-period supplemental paym...
Legal Proceedings
Acadia Healthcare Faces Major Jury Verdict in Lawsuit
Negative
May 18, 2026
On May 12, 2026, a jury in the Superior Court of San Diego County, California, awarded a former employee of Fashion Valley CTC $35 million in compensatory damages and $70 million in punitive damages in an employment-related lawsuit alleging retali...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 30, 2026