Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.98B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: 5.48%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 25,500
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.40
• Shares Outstanding: 92,122,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,074,465
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,176,489
• PEG Ratio: 0.83
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 87.45
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.25
• 1Y Price Target: $41.91
• Price Target Upside: 94.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.50 ▲(13.64%Upside)

Acadia Healthcare's overall stock score is driven by a solid financial performance, despite profitability challenges and negative cash flow. The bearish technical indicators weigh heavily on the score, alongside mixed earnings call outcomes. The stock's valuation suggests potential upside, balancing the risks highlighted by the technical analysis.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The Q1 EBITDA beat should be sufficient to re-ignite investor confidence and improve visibility in the business.

Market Demand

Demand for mental health remains strong, and management's focus on bed additions should translate to continued organic volume growth.

Stock Buyback

Management repurchased $47MM worth of stock in Q1, with expectations of further buyback activity if the stock's valuation remains discounted.

Negative Factors

Financial Uncertainty

Medicaid exposure and the $200M of supplemental payment revenue present a point of uncertainty and risk for a potential buyer.

Legal and Financial Risks

Potential DOJ fines and deal costs add extra financial burdens that need to be considered.

Stock Performance

ACHC shares are down 35% YTD and are trading at a heavy discount, highlighting the lack of investor confidence in the company's ability to achieve FY25 financial targets.

Acadia Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers behavioral healthcare services to its patients in various settings, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals, specialty treatment facilities, residential treatment centers, and outpatient clinics. As of March 31, 2022, it operated a network of 238 behavioral healthcare facilities with approximately 10,600 beds. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Acadia Healthcare generates revenue primarily through the provision of healthcare services at its facilities, which include inpatient psychiatric hospitals, residential treatment centers, and outpatient clinics. The company's revenue streams are driven by patient services, comprising of fees for medical treatments, therapy sessions, and support services. Payments for these services generally come from a mix of private insurers, government programs like Medicare and Medicaid, and individual out-of-pocket payments. Acadia Healthcare's earnings are further supported by strategic partnerships and collaborations with healthcare providers, insurance companies, and governmental agencies, which help in expanding service offerings and increasing patient intake. Additionally, the company may engage in acquisitions to enhance its network and increase market share, thus contributing to its revenue growth.

Acadia Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Acadia Healthcare shows strong revenue growth and stable operating margins. However, challenges are evident with declining net profit margins and negative free cash flow. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but there's room for improved profitability.

Income Statement

Acadia Healthcare displays a solid revenue growth trajectory with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 7.75% compared to 2023. The gross profit margin stands at 62.53%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 5.94% in TTM from 8.10% in 2024, highlighting potential challenges in converting revenue into net income. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable at 12.89% and 16.98%, respectively, showing consistent operating performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderately leveraged position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76. The equity ratio is healthy at 49.47%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Return on equity (ROE) has declined, indicating challenges in generating profits from equity. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability but highlights the need for improving profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a challenging scenario with a negative free cash flow of $-85.52 million in TTM, primarily due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.46, indicating robust cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting inefficiencies in cash management.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.16B	3.15B	2.93B	2.61B	2.31B	2.09B
	Gross Profit
1.97B	711.98M	682.61M	1.12B	979.89M	848.17M
	EBIT
406.84M	522.28M	506.60M	443.90M	414.47M	365.61M
	EBITDA
536.17M	607.84M	189.11M	561.67M	459.47M	437.16M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
187.60M	255.61M	-21.67M	273.14M	190.63M	143.19M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
91.24M	76.31M	100.07M	97.65M	133.81M	378.70M
	Total Assets
6.15B	5.96B	5.36B	4.99B	4.77B	6.50B
	Total Debt
2.33B	2.09B	1.51B	1.53B	1.64B	3.23B
	Net Debt
2.24B	2.01B	1.41B	1.43B	1.50B	2.85B
	Total Liabilities
2.97B	2.77B	2.47B	2.09B	2.19B	4.60B
	Stockholders Equity
3.04B	3.07B	2.78B	2.81B	2.52B	1.90B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-85.52M	-560.69M	38.21M	84.42M	129.67M	442.19M
	Operating Cash Flow
462.45M	129.69M	462.34M	380.57M	374.48M	658.81M
	Investing Cash Flow
-735.10M	-736.48M	-397.22M	-305.83M	1.02B	-281.84M
	Financing Cash Flow
286.58M	583.02M	-62.70M	-110.90M	-1.64B	-51.50M

Acadia Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.56
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.25, below the 50-day MA of 23.42, and below the 200-day MA of 40.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.77 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ACHC.

Acadia Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADUS	77 Outperform	$2.12B	26.01	9.18%	―	11.38%	10.29%
AMED	71 Outperform	$3.21B	36.23	7.85%	―	5.34%	―
SEM	64 Neutral	$1.92B	11.10	10.38%	1.68%	-8.86%	-36.22%
ACHC	60 Neutral	$1.98B	10.56	6.35%	―	5.48%	―
SGRY	59 Neutral	$2.54B	―	-10.43%	―	13.54%	-30732.00%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.24B	3.32	-44.36%	6.63%	16.78%	-0.12%
LFST	50 Neutral	$1.92B	―	-2.47%	―	16.31%	79.86%

Acadia Healthcare Corporate Events

Acadia Healthcare Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

Acadia Healthcare held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 29, 2025, where several key proposals were voted on. The election of Class II directors, amendments to the incentive compensation plan, and advisory votes on executive compensation were approved. Additionally, the frequency of advisory votes on executive compensation was set to annually, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.