Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.99B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.18M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: 5.64%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 25,500
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.83
• Shares Outstanding: 92,346,596
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,237,420
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,181,638
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.24
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.93
• 1Y Price Target: $28.75
• Price Target Upside: 29.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $23.00 ▲(3.70% Upside)

Acadia Healthcare's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and strategic expansions, as highlighted in the earnings call. However, challenges in profitability, increased leverage, and start-up costs weigh on the score. The valuation appears reasonable, but the absence of a dividend yield is a drawback for some investors.

Positive Factors

Industry Demand

Structural tailwinds to the behavioral health industry indicate demand continues to outweigh supply.

Management Strategy

Management’s decision to trim or defer $100 million from future expansion capital expenditures is seen as a positive move.

Share Buyback

ACHC bought ~$47m of shares via the new repo program.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

The stock is not expected to perform well until the company generates EBITDA growth and positive free cash flow.

Legal and Environmental Overhang

ACHC shares continue to be impacted by a myriad of factors including referral pressure on a handful of facilities' volumes, broader environmental pressure on IP volumes and continued overhang of legal liability and acceleration of legal expense.

Operational Challenges

A small group of facilities is underperforming, creating a significant EBITDA headwind, and current trends are worse than previously forecasted.

Acadia Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) is a leading provider of behavioral healthcare services in the United States, specializing in the treatment of substance use disorders, mental health issues, and other behavioral health conditions. The company operates a network of facilities, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals and outpatient clinics, providing a range of services from acute care to rehabilitation and ongoing outpatient support. Acadia Healthcare is committed to delivering high-quality care through clinical excellence and a patient-centered approach.

How the Company Makes Money

Acadia Healthcare generates revenue primarily through the provision of healthcare services, which are reimbursed by a variety of payers including private insurance companies, government programs such as Medicare and Medicaid, and self-pay patients. The company operates on a fee-for-service model, where revenue is derived from the number of patients treated and the services rendered, including inpatient stays and outpatient visits. Additionally, Acadia benefits from contractual agreements with insurance providers that facilitate patient access to its services. The company also focuses on expanding its network through acquisitions and partnerships, enhancing its capability to serve a broader patient base and increase revenue streams.

Acadia Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Acadia Healthcare shows strong revenue growth and stable operating margins. However, challenges include declining net profit margins and negative free cash flow, indicating inefficiencies in cash management. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, but profitability needs improvement.

Income Statement

Acadia Healthcare displays a solid revenue growth trajectory with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 7.75% compared to 2023. The gross profit margin stands at 62.53%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 5.94% in TTM from 8.10% in 2024, highlighting potential challenges in converting revenue into net income. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable at 12.89% and 16.98%, respectively, showing consistent operating performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderately leveraged position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76. The equity ratio is healthy at 49.47%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. Return on equity (ROE) has declined, indicating challenges in generating profits from equity. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability but highlights the need for improving profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a challenging scenario with a negative free cash flow of $-85.52 million in TTM, primarily due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.46, indicating robust cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting inefficiencies in cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.23B	3.15B	2.93B	2.61B	2.31B	2.09B
Gross Profit	2.62B	711.98M	682.61M	1.12B	979.89M	848.17M
EBITDA	498.63M	607.84M	189.11M	561.67M	459.47M	437.16M
Net Income	139.25M	255.61M	-21.67M	273.14M	190.63M	143.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.31B	5.96B	5.36B	4.99B	4.77B	6.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	131.42M	76.31M	100.07M	97.65M	133.81M	378.70M
Total Debt	2.39B	2.09B	1.51B	1.53B	1.64B	3.23B
Total Liabilities	3.08B	2.77B	2.47B	2.09B	2.19B	4.60B
Stockholders Equity	3.08B	3.07B	2.78B	2.81B	2.52B	1.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	31.08M	-560.69M	38.21M	84.42M	129.67M	442.19M
Operating Cash Flow	424.81M	129.69M	462.34M	380.57M	374.48M	658.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-730.40M	-736.48M	-397.22M	-305.83M	1.02B	-281.84M
Financing Cash Flow	359.85M	583.02M	-62.70M	-110.90M	-1.64B	-51.50M

Acadia Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.85, above the 50-day MA of 21.89, and below the 200-day MA of 30.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACHC.

Acadia Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADUS	80 Outperform	$2.10B	25.18	8.54%	―	14.29%	7.85%
AMED	73 Outperform		―	7.26%	―	4.92%	-7.34%
SEM	71 Outperform	$1.59B	12.03	8.15%	1.95%	-16.10%	-48.97%
ACHC	70 Outperform	$1.99B	14.20	4.62%	―	5.64%	―
SGRY	63 Neutral	$2.91B	―	-9.75%	―	12.05%	-432.59%
LFST	61 Neutral	$2.10B	―	-1.11%	―	13.86%	89.49%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.83B	-0.18	-40.10%	2.29%	21.46%	-2.03%

Acadia Healthcare Corporate Events

Acadia Healthcare Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

Acadia Healthcare held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 29, 2025, where several key proposals were voted on. The election of Class II directors, amendments to the incentive compensation plan, and advisory votes on executive compensation were approved. Additionally, the frequency of advisory votes on executive compensation was set to annually, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.