Trend Micro Incorporated (ADR) (TMICY)
OTHER OTC:TMICY
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Trend Micro
(OTC:TMICY)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$36.00
▼(-12.75% Downside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/23/26
Score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high margins, no debt, improving recent profitability/FCF). This is partially offset by weak current technicals (below major moving averages, negative MACD) and a moderate valuation, while the latest call adds support via platform momentum and shareholder returns but flags near-term profit pressure and slowed ARR growth.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue & platform traction
A large, predominantly recurring revenue base with strong Vision One adoption and ~130% NRR implies durable revenue retention and in‑place expansion. Platform attachment and higher per‑customer ARR support predictable cash flows and scalable upsell economics over the medium term.
Negative Factors
ARR growth slowdown
ARR is the leading indicator for subscription businesses; a material deceleration to 2% weakens forward revenue visibility and may signal tougher sales motion or product adoption. Slower ARR forces heavier go‑to‑market spend or strategic reprioritization to restore durable growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring revenue & platform traction
A large, predominantly recurring revenue base with strong Vision One adoption and ~130% NRR implies durable revenue retention and in‑place expansion. Platform attachment and higher per‑customer ARR support predictable cash flows and scalable upsell economics over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Trend Micro (TMICY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.38B
Dividend Yield2.23%
Average Volume (3M)539.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.5
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth2.73%
EPS Growth46.30%
CountryUS
Employees6,869
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding140,901,610
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume539
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.94
Price to Book (P/B)6.51
Price to Sales (P/S)2.94
P/FCF Ratio12.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap108.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.42
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.88B
Trend Micro Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trend Micro Incorporated develops and sells security-related software for computers and the Internet primarily in Japan. The company offers hybrid cloud security solutions, such conformity, workload, container, file storage, application, network, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Trend Micro makes money primarily through the sale of its cybersecurity software and services. The company generates revenue from licensing its products, which are available for both individual consumers and enterprise clients. Enterprise solution...
Trend Micro Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid platform-driven momentum: record full-year results, stronger enterprise recurring revenue, high Vision One adoption and robust NRR (130%). Management acknowledges a near-term trade-off as they invest in TrendAI, Magna AI and VicOne, which will depress operating income slightly in 2026 and has contributed to a temporary ARR slowdown (Q4 ARR at 2%). Regional headwinds, prior consumer disruption and rising cloud/start-up costs are notable risks, but the company provided clear go-to-market changes, growing platform attach rates, and targets for ARR and revenue growth. Overall the positives around platform traction, recurring revenue and product repositioning outweigh the near-term challenges tied to investments and macro noise.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 net sales increased 5% year-over-year; company reported record-high net sales for the fourth quarter.
Negative Updates
ARR Slowdown in Q4
ARR growth decelerated to 2% in Q4 compared with 7% a year earlier; management acknowledged ARR momentum slowed and plans initiatives to lift ARR during 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Q4 net sales increased 5% year-over-year; company reported record-high net sales for the fourth quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For FY2026 management guided net sales to rise 9% (6% on a constant‑currency basis) while operating profit is expected to decline ~2% as the company increases investment in AI/new business and in‑house start‑ups (Magna AI, VicOne); management is prioritizing ARR metrics and targets overall ARR growth of ~13% (TrendAI ARR +15%, TrendLife ARR +6%), with net sales +9% and a modest short‑term hit to operating income. They expect to pay a JPY185 final dividend (prior year JPY184) and have announced a JPY5 billion buyback as part of a shareholder‑return approach that combines a ~70% dividend payout with buybacks toward a stated 100% return; underlying recurring metrics cited include total recurring revenue of $1.7bn, enterprise recurring revenue $1.3bn (small enterprise $229m), Vision One representing ~38% of total revenue (about 41% of TrendAI ARR early quarter), Vision One average ARR per customer up from $35,100 to $35,500 (vs $5,400 for non‑Vision One), Vision One ARR cohort $467m growing 58%, average 4.9 solutions per Vision One customer, NRR ~130% and an estimated $7.3bn incremental ARR opportunity in the installed base — all of which frame the planned hiring, marketing and R&D spend behind the guidance.Trend Micro Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 289.36B | 272.64B | 248.69B | 223.79B | 190.36B |
| Gross Profit | 222.56B | 207.66B | 185.03B | 169.50B | 148.34B |
| EBITDA | 88.95B | 77.03B | 60.92B | 56.53B | 64.54B |
| Net Income | 36.20B | 34.36B | 10.73B | 29.84B | 38.37B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 422.53B | 400.32B | 492.63B | 470.80B | 420.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 231.19B | 210.90B | 299.03B | 242.85B | 256.80B |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 291.31B | 280.87B | 278.21B | 242.12B | 199.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 130.72B | 119.44B | 214.39B | 228.66B | 220.64B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 66.56B | 21.84B | 30.87B | 35.92B | 36.48B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 67.77B | 46.78B | 57.23B | 56.90B | 55.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.00B | 5.04B | 31.00B | -67.72B | 2.58B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -31.00B | -130.90B | -43.43B | -30.44B | -16.45B |
Trend Micro Technical Analysis
Neutral
41.26
Price Trends
36.57
Negative
41.70
Negative
50.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.82
Negative
43.61
Neutral
34.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMICY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 41.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.70, above the 50-day MA of 36.57, and below the 200-day MA of 50.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TMICY.
Trend Micro Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $20.00B | 19.73 | 27.89% | ― | 11.27% | 4.47% | |
72 Outperform | $61.24B | 31.84 | 123.64% | ― | 14.78% | 22.52% | |
71 Outperform | $4.38B | 23.50 | 29.20% | 2.23% | 2.73% | 46.30% | |
69 Neutral | $104.82B | -686.05 | -4.68% | ― | 22.05% | -341.24% | |
66 Neutral | $22.42B | ― | -3.48% | ― | 23.24% | -8.83% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.