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Trend Micro Incorporated (ADR) (TMICY)
:TMICY
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Trend Micro (TMICY) AI Stock Analysis

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TMICY

Trend Micro

(OTC:TMICY)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
Trend Micro is well-positioned in the Software - Infrastructure industry, with strong financial performance driven by robust revenue growth and profitability. The company's efforts in AI and cybersecurity further bolster its market standing. While technical indicators show positive momentum, the high P/E ratio suggests careful consideration of valuation. Challenges in the consumer segment and accounts receivable issues present risks, but the overall outlook remains favorable.

Trend Micro (TMICY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Trend Micro Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrend Micro Incorporated develops and sells security-related software for computers and the Internet primarily in Japan. The company offers hybrid cloud security solutions, such conformity, workload, container, file storage, application, network, and open-source security products. It also provides intrusion prevention, threat protection, industrial and mobile network security products, as well as offers email, mobile, web, and industrial endpoint security products. In addition, the company offers cloud migration, cloud-native app development, cloud operational, data center security, and SaaS application solutions. Further, it provides ICS/OT, connected car, and 5G security solutions, as well as offers ransomware, end-of-support systems, compliance, detection, and response solutions. It serves oil and gas, healthcare, manufacturing, and electric utility industries. The company was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrend Micro makes money primarily through the sale of its cybersecurity software and services. The company generates revenue from licensing its products, which are available for both individual consumers and enterprise clients. Enterprise solutions often involve subscription-based models, where customers pay regular fees for continued access to Trend Micro's security services and updates. Additionally, the company offers managed security services, which provide organizations with outsourced monitoring and management of their security systems. Key revenue streams include endpoint security, hybrid cloud security, and network defense. Trend Micro also engages in strategic partnerships with other technology companies and cloud service providers, which help expand its market reach and enhance its service offerings.

Trend Micro Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -9.84%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strong performance in operating profit and enterprise growth, countered by notable challenges in the consumer division and U.S. market due to government budget impacts. While the company continues to innovate and strengthen its strategic partnerships, the decline in consumer sales and pre-GAAP figures highlight areas of concern.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Operating Profit
Achieved a record high quarter for operating profit with a 24% increase, surpassing internal plan metrics and driving operating margin up to 22%.
Enterprise ARR Growth
Enterprise ARR saw a double-digit growth, with recurring revenue at $1.3 billion, primarily driven by large enterprise segment and Vision One platform adoption.
Improvement in SME and UTM Sales
Domestic SME business achieved a 22% increase in net sales, with UTM sales up by 39% year-over-year.
Vision One Platform Adoption
Vision One platform was adopted by over 10,600 enterprise customers, with average modules deployed at 4.8, enhancing retention and ARR impact.
Strategic Alliances and Industry Recognition
Further cemented strategic alliance with NVIDIA and received The Partners Choice award from Canalys for partner ecosystem efforts.
Negative Updates
Consumer Division Sales Decline
Consumer division saw a net sales decline of 8% year-over-year, primarily due to e-commerce platform issues and fewer multiyear transactions.
Impact of U.S. Government Budget Cuts
U.S. government budget cuts affected enterprise transactions, leading to project pauses and cancellations, impacting overall U.S. business.
Pre-GAAP Decline
Pre-GAAP results declined by 8%, influenced by the U.S. market conditions and a high-performing Q4 pull-forward effect.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company reported a 2% increase in revenue and an impressive 24% rise in operating profit, with an operating margin reaching 22%, significantly exceeding internal expectations. The growth, however, was affected by a 9% decline in recurring profit due to exchange rate losses, primarily from the lower dollar and higher yen. The consumer division experienced a notable 27% drop, attributed to an e-commerce platform transition that temporarily halted sales. In contrast, the enterprise segment showed robust performance with a 5% increase in net sales and a double-digit growth in enterprise ARR. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the overall forecast remains aligned with the company's strategic goals, focusing on enhancing profitability and expanding their comprehensive cybersecurity platform. The company also emphasized a shift towards a flatter organizational structure, reducing headcount slightly, and highlighted significant cost management improvements, especially in cloud utilization.

Trend Micro Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trend Micro demonstrates solid financial health with strong revenue growth, robust profitability, and efficient cash flow management. The zero-debt position enhances financial stability, though attention to declining free cash flow and equity levels could further strengthen the company's financial position.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Trend Micro exhibits strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin above 70% and improving net profit margins, reaching 12.6% in the latest year. Revenue has shown steady growth, with a notable increase of around 9.6% from 2023 to 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect solid operational efficiency. However, the net income growth has been inconsistent, impacting overall profitability scores.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The company maintains a robust balance sheet with zero debt, indicating financial stability and low leverage risk. A strong equity ratio above 25% and healthy ROE highlight efficient use of equity capital. However, a decline in stockholders' equity over the most recent period suggests potential areas for improvement in equity retention or growth.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
While operating cash flow remains strong, there has been a decrease in free cash flow, impacting growth rates. The company maintains a favorable operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash conversion. However, the drop in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024 points to increased capital expenditures or other cash outflows that need addressing.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue272.64B248.69B223.79B190.36B174.06B
Gross Profit207.66B185.03B169.50B148.34B135.90B
EBITDA77.03B60.92B56.53B64.54B62.14B
Net Income34.36B10.73B29.84B38.37B26.90B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets400.32B492.63B470.80B420.46B376.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments210.90B299.03B242.85B256.80B212.27B
Total Debt0.000.000.000.000.00
Total Liabilities280.87B278.21B242.12B199.03B187.34B
Stockholders Equity119.44B214.39B228.66B220.64B188.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow21.84B30.87B35.92B36.48B42.47B
Operating Cash Flow46.78B57.23B56.90B55.27B54.31B
Investing Cash Flow5.04B31.00B-67.72B2.58B-5.78B
Financing Cash Flow-130.90B-43.43B-30.44B-16.45B-21.14B

Trend Micro Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price63.15
Price Trends
50DMA
70.37
Negative
100DMA
69.56
Negative
200DMA
63.42
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.84
Negative
RSI
34.55
Neutral
STOCH
48.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMICY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 63.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.14, below the 50-day MA of 70.37, and below the 200-day MA of 63.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMICY.

Trend Micro Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$17.19B28.4319.89%5.61%26.65%
78
Outperform
$8.28B38.9229.09%0.03%1.75%194.40%
76
Outperform
$2.13B16.7124.65%0.60%17.39%100.46%
76
Outperform
$4.97B27.9640.23%9.58%12.41%
67
Neutral
$4.06B-12.09%11.79%35.35%
64
Neutral
$6.12B-22.21%13.34%13.71%
61
Neutral
€9.11B16.814.09%1.84%4.14%-26.32%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TMICY
Trend Micro
63.15
16.71
35.98%
FFIV
F5 Networks
299.37
121.78
68.57%
EVTC
Evertec
33.33
-0.86
-2.52%
QLYS
Qualys
136.81
-8.68
-5.97%
VRNS
Varonis Systems
54.69
6.20
12.79%
TENB
Tenable Holdings
33.21
-9.93
-23.02%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Apr 20, 2025